Taylor rule with hidden states

This work evaluates empirically the Taylor rule for the US and Brazil using Kalman Filter and Markov-Switching Regimes. We show that the parameters of the rule change significantly with variations in both output and output gap proxies, considering hidden variables and states. Such conclusions call naturally for robust optimal monetary rules. We also show that Brazil and US have very contrasting parameters, first because Brazil presents time-varying intercept, second because of the rigidity in the parameters of the Brazilian Taylor rule, regardless the output gap proxy, data frequency or sample data. Finally, we show that the long-run inflation parameter of the US Taylor rule is less than one in many periods, contrasting strongly with Orphanides (forthcoming) and Clarida, Gal´i and Gertler (2000), and the same happens with Brazilian monthly data.

Phase transition of demand explained by the heterogeneity of consumers' intrinsic preferences

In 1991 Gary S. Becker presented A Note on Restaurant Pricing and Other Examples of Social In uences on Price explaining why many successful restaurants, plays, sporting events, and other activities do not raise their prices even with persistent excess demand. The main reason for this is due to the discontinuity of stable demands, which is explained in Becker's (1991) analysis. In the present paper we construct a discrete time stochastic model of socially interacting consumers deciding for one of two establishments. With this model we show that the discontinuity of stable demands, proposed by Gary S. Becker, depends crucially on an additional factor: the dispersion of the consumers' intrinsic preferences for the establishments.

In search of exchange rate predictability : a study about accuracy, consistency, and granger causality of forecasts generated by a Taylor Rule Model

Este estudo investiga o poder preditivo fora da amostra, um mês à frente, de um modelo baseado na regra de Taylor para previsão de taxas de câmbio. Revisamos trabalhos relevantes que concluem que modelos macroeconômicos podem explicar a taxa de câmbio de curto prazo. Também apresentamos estudos que são céticos em relação à capacidade de variáveis macroeconômicas preverem as variações cambiais. Para contribuir com o tema, este trabalho apresenta sua própria evidência através da implementação do modelo que demonstrou o melhor resultado preditivo descrito por Molodtsova e Papell (2009), o “symmetric Taylor rule model with heterogeneous coefficients, smoothing, and a constant”. Para isso, utilizamos uma amostra de 14 moedas em relação ao dólar norte-americano que permitiu a geração de previsões mensais fora da amostra de janeiro de 2000 até março de 2014. Assim como o critério adotado por Galimberti e Moura (2012), focamos em países que adotaram o regime de câmbio flutuante e metas de inflação, porém escolhemos moedas de países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento. Os resultados da nossa pesquisa corroboram o estudo de Rogoff e Stavrakeva (2008), ao constatar que a conclusão da previsibilidade da taxa de câmbio depende do teste estatístico adotado, sendo necessária a adoção de testes robustos e rigorosos para adequada avaliação do modelo. Após constatar não ser possível afirmar que o modelo implementado provém previsões mais precisas do que as de um passeio aleatório, avaliamos se, pelo menos, o modelo é capaz de gerar previsões “racionais”, ou “consistentes”. Para isso, usamos o arcabouço teórico e instrumental definido e implementado por Cheung e Chinn (1998) e concluímos que as previsões oriundas do modelo de regra de Taylor são “inconsistentes”. Finalmente, realizamos testes de causalidade de Granger com o intuito de verificar se os valores defasados dos retornos previstos pelo modelo estrutural explicam os valores contemporâneos observados. Apuramos que o modelo fundamental é incapaz de antecipar os retornos realizados.

Taylor rule in Brazil

In this paper, we use the Taylor Rule to characterize empirically the Brazilian monetary policy before and after its major and succesful stabilization plan, Real Plan, launched in 1994. Specifically, we show how the inflation coefficient has changed after the stabilization plan was carried out. This is a natural experiment to test theories surrounding the Taylor Rule in which monetary instability is characterized by an inflation coefficient less than one, whereas monetary stability will have a greater than one coefficient (seeWoodford’s (2003)). Very suprisingly the paper shows that the inflation coefficient has remained less than one even after the stabilization. Our results are quite robust with respect to different samples, lags of variables, proxies for GDP, proxies for potential GDP and even with respect to econometric methods (see Bueno (2005a, 2005b)). The implications are very important both theoretically and empirically. First, it shows some gap in theory that deserves further investigation. Second, it suggests that the inflation targeting regime has been uneffective in Brazil confirming a feeling largerly spread among Brazilians.

Taylor rule in Brazil

In this paper, we use the Taylor Rule to characterize empirically the Brazilian monetary policy before and after its major and succesful stabilization plan, Real Plan, launched in 1994. Specifically, we show how the inflation coefficient has changed after the stabilization plan was carried out. This is a natural experiment to test theories surrounding the Taylor Rule in which monetary instability is characterized by an inflation coefficient less than one, whereas monetary stability will have a greater than one coefficient (seeWoodford’s (2003)). Very suprisingly the paper shows that the inflation coefficient has remained less than one even after the stabilization. Our results are quite robust with respect to different samples, lags of variables, proxies for GDP, proxies for potential GDP and even with respect to econometric methods (see Bueno (2005a, 2005b)). The implications are very important both theoretically and empirically. First, it shows some gap in theory that deserves further investigation. Second, it suggests that the inflation targeting regime has been uneffective in Brazil confirming a feeling largerly spread among Brazilians.

A model of the rule of law

Economic development requires some limits on what those in power can do | the rule of law | but how can restraints be imposed on the powerful when there is no-one above them? This paper studies equilibrium rules allocating power and resources established by selfinterested incumbents under the threat of rebellions from inside and outside the group in power. Commitment to uphold individuals' rights can only be achieved if power is not as concentrated as incumbents would like it to be, ex post. Power sharing endogenously enables incumbents to commit to otherwise time-inconsistent laws by ensuring more people receive rents under the status quo, and thus want to defend it.

Políticas de conteúdo local: crescimento econômico e rule of law

As chamadas Políticas de Conteúdo Local (“PCLs”) fazem parte de um grupo de políticas desenvolvimentistas adotadas em todo o mundo com o objetivo de maximizar os benefícios sociais e econômicos decorrentes de determinadas atividades econômicas. Neste trabalho, analisaram-se, principalmente, as PCLs relativas à extração e produção de petróleo e gás. O instituto é juridicamente polêmico, uma vez que, além de ser difícil de definir, é instrumentalizado por diversos atos normativos diferentes. Tal situação agrava-se com o fato de que o desenho de cada PCL pode sugerir ou impor diversas medidas de implementação diferentes, com impactos nas diferentes áreas do Direito. Considerando este cenário, aponta-se que o principal objetivo deste trabalho é a análise de transplantes ao nosso ordenamento jurídico de PCLs bem-sucedidas em ordenamentos jurídicos estrangeiros. Para isso, demonstrou-se, em um primeiro momento, que o instituto das PCLs deve ser reinterpretado à luz da Constituição vigente. Isso porque as PCLs foram criadas em uma época em que a escola desenvolvimentista principal era a keynesiana, que foi substituída atualmente pela escola do Rule of Law. Embora nosso ordenamento jurídico tenha acompanhado essa evolução (através de Emendas Constitucionais e adoção de determinadas leis), as PCLs não acompanharam e, por isso, precisam sofrer essa releitura. Nesse sentido, extraíram-se da Lei quatro elementos principais que as PCLs devem preencher para estar em consonância com o Rule of Law: (A) Benefícios aos Consumidores Finais; (B) Sustentabilidade; (C) Transetorialidade; e (D) Ampliação do Mercado de Trabalho. Em sequência, classificaram-se as diversas PCLs mapeadas, exemplificando cada uma. Ao longo da classificação, apontaram-se três critérios que facilitam a identificação das maiores dificuldades jurídicas em cada transplante: (A) Canal; (B) Natureza; e (C) Instrumento. Por fim, quatro PCLs estrangeiras bem-sucedidas foram escolhidas para uma análise mais aprofundada: a Kazakhstan Contract Agency, no Cazaquistão, a Petro Arctic Supplier Asssociation, na Noruega, o Australian Industry Participation Plan na Austrália e o Nigerian Oil & Gas Content Industry Development Act, na Nigéria. Para cada uma, é dedicada uma análise especial. As análises são seguidas pela Conclusão.

Screening of volatile composition from portuguese multifloral honeys using headspace solid-phase microextraction-gas chromatography–quadrupole mass spectrometry

The volatile composition from four types of multifloral Portuguese (produced in Madeira Island) honeys was investigated by a suitable analytical procedure based on dynamic headspace solid-phase microextraction (HS-SPME) followed by thermal desorption gas chromatography–quadrupole mass spectrometry detection (GC–qMS). The performance of five commercially available SPME fibres: 100 μm polydimethylsiloxane, PDMS; 85 μm polyacrylate, PA; 50/30 μm divinylbenzene/carboxen on polydimethylsiloxane, DVB/CAR/PDMS (StableFlex); 75 μm carboxen/polydimethylsiloxane, CAR/PDMS, and 65 μm carbowax/divinylbenzene, CW/DVB; were evaluated and compared. The highest amounts of extract, in terms of the maximum signal obtained for the total volatile composition, were obtained with a DVB/CAR/PDMS coating fibre at 60 °C during an extraction time of 40 min with a constant stirring at 750 rpm, after saturating the sample with NaCl (30%). Using this methodology more than one hundred volatile compounds, belonging to different biosynthetic pathways were identified, including monoterpenols, C13-norisoprenoids, sesquiterpenes, higher alcohols, ethyl esters and fatty acids. The main components of the HS-SPME samples of honey were in average ethanol, hotrienol, benzeneacetaldehyde, furfural, trans-linalool oxide and 1,3-dihydroxy-2-propanone.

Investigation of urinary volatile organic metabolites as potential cancer biomarkers by solid-phase microextraction in combination with gas chromatography-mass spectrometry

BACKGROUND: Non-invasive diagnostic strategies aimed at identifying biomarkers of cancer are of great interest for early cancer detection. Urine is potentially a rich source of volatile organic metabolites (VOMs) that can be used as potential cancer biomarkers. Our aim was to develop a generally reliable, rapid, sensitive, and robust analytical method for screening large numbers of urine samples, resulting in a broad spectrum of native VOMs, as a tool to evaluate the potential of these metabolites in the early diagnosis of cancer. METHODS: To investigate urinary volatile metabolites as potential cancer biomarkers, urine samples from 33 cancer patients (oncological group: 14 leukaemia, 12 colorectal and 7 lymphoma) and 21 healthy (control group, cancer-free) individuals were qualitatively and quantitatively analysed. Dynamic solid-phase microextraction in headspace mode (dHS-SPME) using a carboxenpolydimethylsiloxane (CAR/PDMS) sorbent in combination with GC-qMS-based metabolomics was applied to isolate and identify the volatile metabolites. This method provides a potential non-invasive method for early cancer diagnosis as a first approach. To fulfil this objective, three important dHS-SPME experimental parameters that influence extraction efficiency (fibre coating, extraction time and temperature of sampling) were optimised using a univariate optimisation design. The highest extraction efficiency was obtained when sampling was performed at 501C for 60min using samples with high ionic strengths (17% sodium chloride, wv 1) and under agitation. RESULTS: A total of 82 volatile metabolites belonging to distinct chemical classes were identified in the control and oncological groups. Benzene derivatives, terpenoids and phenols were the most common classes for the oncological group, whereas ketones and sulphur compounds were the main classes that were isolated from the urine headspace of healthy subjects. The results demonstrate that compound concentrations were dramatically different between cancer patients and healthy volunteers. The positive rates of 16 patients among the 82 identified were found to be statistically different (Po0.05). A significant increase in the peak area of 2-methyl3-phenyl-2-propenal, p-cymene, anisole, 4-methyl-phenol and 1,2-dihydro-1,1,6-trimethyl-naphthalene in cancer patients was observed. On average, statistically significant lower abundances of dimethyl disulphide were found in cancer patients. CONCLUSIONS: Gas chromatographic peak areas were submitted to multivariate analysis (principal component analysis and supervised linear discriminant analysis) to visualise clusters within cases and to detect the volatile metabolites that are able to differentiate cancer patients from healthy individuals. Very good discrimination within cancer groups and between cancer and control groups was achieved.

Effectiveness of high-throughput miniaturized sorbent- and solid phase microextraction techniques combined with gas chromatography–mass spectrometry analysis for a rapid screening of volatile and semi-volatile composition of wines: a comparative study

In this study the feasibility of different extraction procedures was evaluated in order to test their potential for the extraction of the volatile (VOCs) and semi-volatile constituents (SVOCs) from wines. In this sense, and before they could be analysed by gas chromatography–quadrupole first stage masss spectrometry (GC–qMS), three different high-throughput miniaturized (ad)sorptive extraction techniques, based on solid phase extraction (SPE), microextraction by packed sorbents (MEPS) and solid phase microextraction (SPME), were studied for the first time together, for the extraction step. To achieve the most complete volatile and semi-volatile signature, distinct SPE (LiChrolut EN, Poropak Q, Styrene-Divinylbenzene and Amberlite XAD-2) and MEPS (C2, C8, C18, Silica and M1 (mixed C8-SCX)) sorbent materials, and different SPME fibre coatings (PA, PDMS, PEG, DVB/CAR/PDMS, PDMS/DVB, and CAR/PDMS), were tested and compared. All the extraction techniques were followed by GC–qMS analysis, which allowed the identification of up to 103 VOCs and SVOCs, distributed by distinct chemical families: higher alcohols, esters, fatty acids, carbonyl compounds and furan compounds. Mass spectra, standard compounds and retention index were used for identification purposes. SPE technique, using LiChrolut EN as sorbent (SPELiChrolut EN), was the most efficient method allowing for the identification of 78 VOCs and SVOCs, 63 and 19 more than MEPS and SPME techniques, respectively. In MEPS technique the best results in terms of number of extractable/identified compounds and total peak areas of volatile and semi-volatile fraction, were obtained by using C8 resin whereas DVB/CAR/PDMS was revealed the most efficient SPME coating to extract VOCs and SVOCs from Bual wine. Diethyl malate (18.8 ± 3.2%) was the main component found in wine SPELiChrolut EN extracts followed by ethyl succinate (13.5 ± 5.3%), 3-methyl-1-butanol (13.2 ± 1.7%), and 2-phenylethanol (11.2 ± 9.9%), while in SPMEDVB/CAR/PDMS technique 3-methyl-1-butanol (43.3 ± 0.6%) followed by diethyl succinate (18.9 ± 1.6%), and 2-furfural (10.4 ± 0.4%), are the major compounds. The major VOCs and SVOCs isolated by MEPSC8 were 3-methyl-1-butanol (26.8 ± 0.6%, from wine total volatile fraction), diethyl succinate (24.9 ± 0.8%), and diethyl malate (16.3 ± 0.9%). Regardless of the extraction technique, the highest extraction efficiency corresponds to esters and higher alcohols and the lowest to fatty acids. Despite some drawbacks associated with the SPE procedure such as the use of organic solvents, the time-consuming and tedious sampling procedure, it was observed that SPELiChrolut EN, revealed to be the most effective technique allowing the extraction of a higher number of compounds (78) rather than the other extraction techniques studied.

Solid phase microextraction, mass spectrometry and metabolomic approaches for detection of potential urinary cancer biomarkers: a powerful strategy for breast cancer diagnosis

A sensitive assay to identify volatile organic metabolites (VOMs) as biomarkers that can accurately diagnose the onset of breast cancer using non-invasively collected clinical specimens is ideal for early detection. Therefore the aim of this study was to establish the urinary metabolomic profile of breast cancer patients and healthy individuals (control group) and to explore the VOMs as potential biomarkers in breast cancer diagnosis at early stage. Solid-phase microextraction (SPME) using CAR/PDMS sorbent combined with gas chromatography–mass spectrometry was applied to obtain metabolomic information patterns of 26 breast cancer patients and 21 healthy individuals (controls). A total of seventy-nine VOMs, belonging to distinct chemical classes, were detected and identified in control and breast cancer groups. Ketones and sulfur compounds were the chemical classes with highest contribution for both groups. Results showed that excretion values of 6 VOMs among the total of 79 detected were found to be statistically different (p < 0.05). A significant increase in the peak area of (−)-4-carene, 3-heptanone, 1,2,4-trimethylbenzene, 2-methoxythiophene and phenol, in VOMs of cancer patients relatively to controls was observed. Statiscally significant lower abundances of dimethyl disulfide were found in cancer patients. Bioanalytical data were submitted to multivariate statistics [principal component analysis (PCA)], in order to visualize clusters of cases and to detect the VOMs that are able to differentiate cancer patients from healthy individuals. Very good discrimination within breast cancer and control groups was achieved. Nevertheless, a deep study using a larger number of patients must be carried out to confirm the results.

Solid phase microextraction as a reliable alternative to conventional extraction techniques to evaluate the pattern of hydrolytically released components in Vitis vinifera L. grapes

In present research, headspace solid-phase microextraction (HS-SPME) followed by gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC–qMS), was evaluated as a reliable and improved alternative to the commonly used liquid–liquid extraction (LLE) technique for the establishment of the pattern of hydrolytically released components of 7 Vitis vinifera L. grape varieties, commonly used to produce the world-famous Madeira wine. Since there is no data available on their glycosidic fractions, at a first step, two hydrolyse procedures, acid and enzymatic, were carried out using Boal grapes as matrix. Several parameters susceptible of influencing the hydrolytic process were studied. The best results, expressed as GC peak area, number of identified components and reproducibility, were obtained using ProZym M with b-glucosidase activity at 35 °C for 42 h. For the extraction of hydrolytically released components, HS-SPME technique was evaluated as a reliable and improved alternative to the conventional extraction technique, LLE (ethyl acetate). HS-SPME using DVB/CAR/PDMS as coating fiber displayed an extraction capacity two fold higher than LLE (ethyl acetate). The hydrolyzed fraction was mainly characterized by the occurrence of aliphatic and aromatic alcohols, followed by acids, esters, carbonyl compounds, terpenoids, and volatile phenols. Concerning to terpenoids its contribution to the total hydrolyzed fraction is highest for Malvasia Cândida (23%) and Malvasia Roxa (13%), and their presence according previous studies, even at low concentration, is important from a sensorial point of view (can impart floral notes to the wines), due to their low odor threshold (μg/L). According to the obtained data by principal component analysis (PCA), the sensorial properties of Madeira wines produced by Malvasia Cândida and Malvasia Roxa could be improved by hydrolysis procedure, since their hydrolyzed fraction is mainly characterized by terpenoids (e.g. linalool, geraniol) which are responsible for floral notes. Bual and Sercial grapes are characterized by aromatic alcohols (e.g. benzyl alcohol, 2-phenylethyl alcohol), so an improvement in sensorial characteristics (citrus, sweet and floral odors) of the corresponding wines, as result of hydrolytic process, is expected.

Characterization of volatile substances in apples from rosaceae family by headspace solid‐phase microextraction followed by GC‐qMS

The volatile composition of different apple varieties of Malus domestica Borkh. species from different geographic regions at Madeira Islands, namely Ponta do Pargo (PP), Porto Santo (PS), and Santo da Serra (SS) was established by headspace solid-phase microextraction (HS-SPME) procedure followed by GC-MS (GC-qMS) analysis. Significant parameters affecting sorption process such as fiber coating, extraction temperature,extractiontime,sampleamount,dilutionfactor,ionicstrength,anddesorption time,wereoptimizedanddiscussed.TheSPMEfibercoatedwith50/30 lmdivinylbenzene/carboxen/PDMS (DVB/CAR/PDMS) afforded highest extraction efficiency of volatile compounds, providing the best sensitivity for the target volatiles, particularly whenthesampleswereextractedat508Cfor30 minwithconstantmagneticstirring. A qualitative and semi-quantitative analysis between the investigated apple species has been established. It was possible to identify about 100 of volatile compounds amongpulp(46,45,and39),peel(64,60,and64),andentirefruit(65,43,and50)inPP, PS,andSSapples,respectively.Ethylesters,terpenes,andhigheralcoholswerefound tobethemostrepresentativevolatiles. a-Farnesene,hexan-1-olandhexyl2-methylbutyratewerethecompoundsfoundinthevolatileprofileofstudiedappleswiththelargestGCarea,representing,onaverage,24.71,14.06,and10.80%ofthetotalvolatilefractionfromPP,PS,andSSapples.InPPentireapple,themostabundantcompoundsidentified were a-farnesene (30.49%), the unknown compound m/z (69, 101, 157) (21.82%) andhexylacetate(6.57%).RegardingPSentireapplethemajorcompoundswere a-farnesene(16.87%),estragole(15.43%),hexan-1-ol(10.94),andE-2-hexenal(10.67).a-Farnesene(30.3%),hexan-1-ol(18.90%),2-methylbutanoicacid(4.7%),andpentan-1-ol(4.6%) werealsofoundasSSentireapplevolatilespresentinahigherrelativecontent.Principal component analysis (PCA) of the results clustered the apples into three groups according to geographic origin. Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) was performed in order to detect the volatile compounds able to differentiate the three kinds of apples investigated. The most important contributions to the differentiation of the PP, PS, and SS apples were ethyl hexanoate, hexyl 2-methylbutyrate, E,E-2,4-heptadienal, pethylstyrene,andE-2-hexenal.

Optimisation of solid-phase microextraction combined with gas chromatography–mass spectrometry based methodology to establish the global volatile signature in pulp and skin of Vitis vinifera L. grape varieties

The volatiles (VOCs) and semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) responsible for aroma are mainly present in skin of grape varieties. Thus, the present investigation is directed towards the optimisation of a solvent free methodology based on headspace-solid-phase microextraction (HS-SPME) combined with gas chromatography–quadrupole mass spectrometry (GC–qMS) in order to establish the global volatile composition in pulp and skin of Bual and Bastardo Vitis vinifera L. varieties. A deep study on the extraction-influencing parameters was performed, and the best results, expressed as GC peak area, number of identified compounds and reproducibility, were obtained using 4 g of sample homogenised in 5 mL of ultra-pure Milli-Q water in a 20 mL glass vial with addition of 2 g of sodium chloride (NaCl). A divinylbenzene/carboxen/polydimethylsiloxane fibre was selected for extraction at 60 °C for 45 min under continuous stirring at 800 rpm. More than 100 VOCs and SVOCs, including 27 monoterpenoids, 27 sesquiterpenoids, 21 carbonyl compounds, 17 alcohols (from which 2 aromatics), 10 C13 norisoprenoids and 5 acids were identified. The results showed that, for both grape varieties, the levels and number of volatiles in skin were considerably higher than those observed in pulp. According to the data obtained by principal component analysis (PCA), the establishment of the global volatile signature of grape and the relationship between different part of grapes—pulp and skin, may be an useful tool to winemaker decision to define the vinification procedures that improves the organoleptic characteristics of the corresponding wines and consequently contributed to an economic valorization and consumer acceptance.

Neuronal Assembly Detection and Cell Membership Specification by Principal Component Analysis

LOPES-DOS-SANTOS, V. , CONDE-OCAZIONEZ, S. ; NICOLELIS, M. A. L. , RIBEIRO, S. T. , TORT, A. B. L. . Neuronal assembly detection and cell membership specification by principal component analysis. Plos One, v. 6, p. e20996, 2011.