Survey : The design studio now

In this book for the AASA I provide a response to the question asked by the editors: What is Architecture Studio?

Analysis of parameter uncertainty and sensitivity in PCPF-1 modeling for predicting concentrations of rice herbicides

This paper demonstrates the procedures for probabilistic assessment of a pesticide fate and transport model, PCPF-1, to elucidate the modeling uncertainty using the Monte Carlo technique. Sensitivity analyses are performed to investigate the influence of herbicide characteristics and related soil properties on model outputs using four popular rice herbicides: mefenacet, pretilachlor, bensulfuron-methyl and imazosulfuron. Uncertainty quantification showed that the simulated concentrations in paddy water varied more than those of paddy soil. This tendency decreased as the simulation proceeded to a later period but remained important for herbicides having either high solubility or a high 1st-order dissolution rate. The sensitivity analysis indicated that PCPF-1 parameters requiring careful determination are primarily those involve with herbicide adsorption (the organic carbon content, the bulk density and the volumetric saturated water content), secondary parameters related with herbicide mass distribution between paddy water and soil (1st-order desorption and dissolution rates) and lastly, those involving herbicide degradations. © Pesticide Science Society of Japan.

Probabilistic assessment of herbicide runoff from Japanese rice paddies: The effects of local meteorological conditions and site-specific water management

Uncertainty assessments of herbicide losses from rice paddies in Japan associated with local meteorological conditions and water management practices were performed using a pesticide fate and transport model, PCPF-1, under the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation scheme. First, MC simulations were conducted for five different cities with a prescribed water management scenario and a 10-year meteorological dataset of each city. The effectiveness of water management was observed regarding the reduction of pesticide runoff. However, a greater potential of pesticide runoff remained in Western Japan. Secondly, an extended analysis was attempted to evaluate the effects of local water management and meteorological conditions between the Chikugo River basin and the Sakura River basin using uncertainty inputs processed from observed water management data. The results showed that because of more severe rainfall events, significant pesticide runoff occurred in the Chikugo River basin even when appropriate irrigation practices were implemented. © Pesticide Science Society of Japan.

Excess water storage depth - A water management practice to control simetryn and thiobencarb runoff from paddy fields

Experiments were carried out to verify the effectiveness of the excess water storage depth (EWSD) in reducing runoff losses of simetryn and thiobencarb from paddy fields upon appreciable rainfall events. A paddy plot having an EWSD of 2 cm was effective in controlling runoff with the herbicide losses of less than 1% of the applied herbicides. Meanwhile, a plot with 0-cm EWSD lost 18.1 and 3.7% of the applied mass of simetryn and thiobencarb, respectively. Therefore, an appropriate EWSD is essential during the recommended 7-day water holding period in order to completely hold the water inside the field in case of rainfall.

Applicability of ELISA in pesticide monitoring to control runoff of bensulfuron-methyl and simetryn from paddy fields

The applicability of ELISA kits was evaluated as an alternative to monitor bensulfuron-methyl and simetryn behavior in paddy water under intermittent (Plot 1) and continuous (Plot 2) irrigation schemes. Simetryn concentrations in both plots decreased exponentially from the peak of the first day. However, the simetryn kit systematically underestimated by a factor of 0.79 as compared to the GC method. Bensulfuron-methyl concentrations exhibited similar dissipation kinetics in paddy water and the drainage water. The bensulfuron-methyl kit was capable of distinguishing spatial variations of concentrations in the paddy field. The ELISA kits clearly indicated differences in the loss of both herbicides between the two plots and therefore may be useful for evaluating the water management practice of pesticide runoff control in paddy fields.

Fate and transport of bensulfuron-methyl and imazosulfuron in paddy fields: Experiments and model simulation

Experiments were conducted to determine the fate of bensulfuron-methyl (BSM) and imazosulfuron (IMS) under paddy conditions. Initially, laboratory experiments were conducted and the photolysis half-lives of the two herbicides were found to be much shorter than their hydrolysis half-lives in aqueous solutions. In the aerobic water–soil system, dissipation followed first-order kinetics with water half-lives of 9.1 and 11.0 days and soil half-lives of 12.4 and 18.5 days (first phase) and 35.0 and 44.1 days (second phase) for bensulfuron-methyl and imazosulfuron, respectively. However, the anaerobic soil half-lives were only 12.7 and 9.8 days for BSM and IMS, respectively. The values of K d were determined to be 16.0 and 13.8 for BSM and IMS, respectively. Subsequent field measurements for the two herbicides revealed that dissipation of both herbicides in paddy water involved biphasic first-order kinetics, with the dissipation rates in the first phase being much faster than those in the second phase. The dissipation of bensulfuron-methyl and imazosulfuron in the paddy surface soil were also followed biphasic first-order kinetics. These results were then used as input parameters for the PCPF-1 model to simulate the fate and transport of BSM and IMS in the paddy environment (water and 1-cm surface soil layer). The measured and simulated values agreed well and the mass balance error during the simulation period was −1.2 and 2.8% of applied pesticide, respectively, for BSM and IMS.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Study of miRNA polymorphisms and their potential association with breast cancer risk in Australian Caucasian populations

This project established a large and well characterised prospective breast cancer DNA biobank and used this biobank to conduct genetic studies in breast cancer. The thesis presented the results of these high-throughput genotyping studies in two separate Australian Caucasian case-control populations and identified association between three novel genetic variants in microRNA genes and breast cancer risk.

G(its)(2) VSR: An Information Theoretic Secure Verifiable Secret Redistribution Protocol for Long-term Archival Storage

Protocols for secure archival storage are becoming increasingly important as the use of digital storage for sensitive documents is gaining wider practice. Wong et al.[8] combined verifiable secret sharing with proactive secret sharing without reconstruction and proposed a verifiable secret redistribution protocol for long term storage. However their protocol requires that each of the receivers is honest during redistribution. We proposed[3] an extension to their protocol wherein we relaxed the requirement that all the recipients should be honest to the condition that only a simple majority amongst the recipients need to be honest during the re(distribution) processes. Further, both of these protocols make use of Feldman's approach for achieving integrity during the (redistribution processes. In this paper, we present a revised version of our earlier protocol, and its adaptation to incorporate Pedersen's approach instead of Feldman's thereby achieving information theoretic secrecy while retaining integrity guarantees.

Study of Pinna nobilis growth from inner record: How biased are posterior adductor muscle scars estimates?

Previous studies have shown that the external growth records of the posterior adductor muscle scar (PAMS) of the bivalve Pinna nobilis are incomplete and do not produce accurate age estimations. We have developed a new methodology to study age and growth using the inner record of the PAMS, which avoids the necessity of costly in situ shell measurements or isotopic studies. Using the inner record we identified the positions of PAMS previously obscured by nacre and estimated the number of missing records in adult specimens with strong abrasion of the calcite layer in the anterior portion of the shell. The study of the PAMS and inner record of two shells that were 6 years old when collected showed that only 2 and 3 PAMS were observed, while 6 inner records could be counted, thus confirming our working methodology. Growth parameters of a P. nobilis population located in Moraira, Spain (western Mediterranean) were estimated with the new methodology and compared to those obtained using PAMS data and in situ measurements. For the comparisons, we applied different models considering the data alternatively as length-at-age (LA) and tag-recapture (TR). Among every method we tested to fit the Von Bertalanffy growth model, we observed that LA data from inner record fitted to the model using non-linear mixed effects and the estimation of missing records using the calcite width was the most appropriate. The equation obtained with this method, L = 573*(1 - e(-0.16(t-0.02))), is very similar to that calculated previously from in situ measurements for the same population.

Association of microRNA 17–92 cluster host gene (MIR17HG) polymorphisms with breast cancer

Breast cancer incidence and mortality rates are increasing despite our current knowledge on the disease. Ninety-five percent of breast cancer cases correspond to sporadic forms of the disease and are believed to involve an interaction between environmental and genetic determinants. The microRNA 17–92 cluster host gene (MIR17HG) has been shown to regulate expression of genes involved in breast cancer development and progression. Study of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) located in this cluster gene could help provide a further understanding of its role in breast cancer. Therefore, this study investigated six SNPs in the MIR17HG using two independent Australian Caucasian case–control populations (GRC-BC and GU-CCQ BB populations) to determine association to breast cancer susceptibility. Genotyping was undertaken using chip-based matrix assisted laser desorption ionisation time-of-flight (MALDI-TOF) mass spectrometry (MS). We found significant association between rs4824505 and breast cancer at the allelic level in both study cohorts (GRC-BC p = 0.01 and GU-CCQ BB p = 0.03). Furthermore, haplotypic analysis of results from our combined population determined a significant association between rs4824505/rs7336610 and breast cancer susceptibility (p = 5 × 10−4). Our study is the first to show that the A allele of rs4824505 and the AC haplotype of rs4824505/rs7336610 are associated with risk of breast cancer development. However, definitive validation of this finding requires larger cohorts or populations in different ethnical backgrounds. Finally, functional studies of these SNPs could provide a deeper understanding of the role that MIR17HG plays in the pathophysiology of breast cancer.

Structure of 7-methyl-1(2)a,1(6)a,3(4)a-trihomocubane-1(6)a,3(4)a-dione,star-c12h12o2- a case of enantiomeric and rotational disorder

M r = 188.22, monoclinic, P21/n, a = 6.219 (2), b= 10.508 (2), c=7.339 (1)A, t= 107.64 (2) °, V= 457 ,/k 3, Z = 2, D m - - 1.360 (3), D x = 1.366 (2)Mgm -3, ~,(MoKa) = 0.7107/~, #= 0.053 mm -I, F(000) = 200, T= 293 K. Final R = 5.8% for 614 significant reflections. The molecule, which does not possess a centre of symmetry, occupies a crystallographic centre of symmetry because of the statistical enantiomeric and rotational disorder. Latticeenergy calculations, based on van der Waals attractive and repulsive potentials, clearly show minima at the observed disordered positions.

Genetic association analysis of miRNA SNPs implicates MIR145 in breast cancer susceptibility

Background MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are important small non-coding RNA molecules that regulate gene expression in cellular processes related to the pathogenesis of cancer. Genetic variation in miRNA genes could impact their synthesis and cellular effects and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are one example of genetic variants studied in relation to breast cancer. Studies aimed at identifying miRNA SNPs (miR-SNPs) associated with breast malignancies could lead towards further understanding of the disease and to develop clinical applications for early diagnosis and treatment. Methods We genotyped a panel of 24 miR-SNPs using multiplex PCR and chip-based matrix assisted laser desorption ionization time-of-flight (MALDI-TOF) mass spectrometry (MS) analysis in two Caucasian breast cancer case control populations (Primary population: 173 cases and 187 controls and secondary population: 679 cases and 301 controls). Association to breast cancer susceptibility was determined using chi-square (X 2 ) and odds ratio (OR) analysis. Results Statistical analysis showed six miR-SNPs to be non-polymorphic and twelve of our selected miR-SNPs to have no association with breast cancer risk. However, we were able to show association between rs353291 (located in MIR145) and the risk of developing breast cancer in two independent case control cohorts (p = 0.041 and p = 0.023). Conclusions Our study is the first to report an association between a miR-SNP in MIR145 and breast cancer risk in individuals of Caucasian background. This finding requires further validation through genotyping of larger cohorts or in individuals of different ethnicities to determine the potential significance of this finding as well as studies aimed to determine functional significance. Keywords: Association analysis; Breast cancer; microRNA; miR-SNPs; MIR145