Hazard Function Models to Estimate Mortality Rates Affecting Fish Populations with Application to the Sea Mullet (Mugil cephalus) Fishery on the Queensland Coast (Australia)

Fisheries management agencies around the world collect age data for the purpose of assessing the status of natural resources in their jurisdiction. Estimates of mortality rates represent a key information to assess the sustainability of fish stocks exploitation. Contrary to medical research or manufacturing where survival analysis is routinely applied to estimate failure rates, survival analysis has seldom been applied in fisheries stock assessment despite similar purposes between these fields of applied statistics. In this paper, we developed hazard functions to model the dynamic of an exploited fish population. These functions were used to estimate all parameters necessary for stock assessment (including natural and fishing mortality rates as well as gear selectivity) by maximum likelihood using age data from a sample of catch. This novel application of survival analysis to fisheries stock assessment was tested by Monte Carlo simulations to assert that it provided unbiased estimations of relevant quantities. The method was applied to the data from the Queensland (Australia) sea mullet (Mugil cephalus) commercial fishery collected between 2007 and 2014. It provided, for the first time, an estimate of natural mortality affecting this stock: 0.22±0.08 year −1 .

On the ecology of cold-water phytoplankton in the Baltic Sea

Increased anthropogenic loading of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) has led to an eutrophication problem in the Baltic Sea, and the spring bloom is a key component in the biological uptake of increased nutrient concentrations. The spring bloom in the Baltic Sea is dominated by both diatoms and dinoflagellates. However, the sedimentation of these groups is different: diatoms tend to sink to the sea floor at the end of the bloom, while dinoflagellates to a large degree are been remineralized in the euphotic zone. Understanding phytoplankton competition and species specific ecological strategies is thus of importance for assessing indirect effects of phytoplankton community composition on eutrophication problems. The main objective of this thesis was to describe some basic physiological and ecological characteristics of the main cold-water diatoms and dinoflagellates in the Baltic Sea. This was achieved by specific studies of: (1) seasonal vertical positioning, (2) dinoflagellate life cycle, (3) mixotrophy, (4) primary production, respiration and growth and (5) diatom silicate uptake, using cultures of common cold-water diatoms: Chaetoceros wighamii, C. gracilis, Pauliella taeniata, Thalassiosira baltica, T. levanderi, Melosira arctica, Diatoma tenuis, Nitzschia frigida, and dinoflagellates: Peridiniella catenata, Woloszynskia halophila and Scrippsiella hangoei. The diatoms had higher primary production capacity and lower respiration rate compared with the dinoflagellates. This difference was reflected in the maximum growth rate, which for the examined diatoms range from 0.6 to 1.2 divisions d-1, compared with 0.2 to 0.3 divisions d-1 for the dinoflagellates. Among diatoms there were species specific differences in light utilization and uptake of silicate, and C. wighamii had the highest carbon assimilation capacity and maximum silicate uptake. The physiological properties of diatoms and dinoflagellates were used in a model of the onset of the spring bloom: for the diatoms the model could predict the initiation of the spring bloom; S. hangoei, on the other hand, could not compete successfully and did not obtain positive growth in the model. The other dinoflagellates did not have higher growth rates or carbon assimilation rates and would thus probably not perform better than S. hangoei in the model. The dinoflagellates do, however, have competitive advantages that were not included in the model: motility and mixotrophy. Previous investigations has revealed that the chain-forming P. catenata performs diurnal vertical migration (DVM), and the results presented here suggest that active positioning in the water column, in addition to DVM, is a key element in this species' life strategy. There was indication of mixotrophy in S. hangoei, as it produced and excreted the enzyme leucine aminopeptidase (LAP). Moreover, there was indirect evidence that W. halophila obtains carbon from other sources than photosynthesis when comparing increase in cell numbers with in situ carbon assimilation rates. The results indicate that mixotrophy is a part of the strategy of vernal dinoflagellates in the Baltic Sea. There were also indications that the seeding of the spring bloom is very important for the dinoflagellates to succeed. In mesocosm experiments dinoflagellates could not compete with diatoms when their initial numbers were low. In conclusion, this thesis has provided new information about the basic physiological and ecological properties of the main cold-water phytoplankton in the Baltic Sea. The main phytoplankton groups, diatoms and dinoflagellates, have different physiological properties, which clearly separate their life strategies. The information presented here could serve as further steps towards better prognostic models of the effects of eutrophication in the Baltic Sea.

Effect of soil variability on the bearing capacity of clay and in slope stability problems

Site-specific geotechnical data are always random and variable in space. In the present study, a procedure for quantifying the variability in geotechnical characterization and design parameters is discussed using the site-specific cone tip resistance data (qc) obtained from static cone penetration test (SCPT). The parameters for the spatial variability modeling of geotechnical parameters i.e. (i) existing trend function in the in situ qc data; (ii) second moment statistics i.e. analysis of mean, variance, and auto-correlation structure of the soil strength and stiffness parameters; and (iii) inputs from the spatial correlation analysis, are utilized in the numerical modeling procedures using the finite difference numerical code FLAC 5.0. The influence of consideration of spatially variable soil parameters on the reliability-based geotechnical deign is studied for the two cases i.e. (a) bearing capacity analysis of a shallow foundation resting on a clayey soil, and (b) analysis of stability and deformation pattern of a cohesive-frictional soil slope. The study highlights the procedure for conducting a site-specific study using field test data such as SCPT in geotechnical analysis and demonstrates that a few additional computations involving soil variability provide a better insight into the role of variability in designs.

Allelopathic effects of filamentous cyanobacteria on phytoplankton in the Baltic Sea

Eutrophication and enhanced internal nutrient loading of the Baltic Sea are most clearly reflected by increased late-summer cyanobacterial blooms, which often are toxic. In addition to their toxicity to animals, phytoplankton species can be allelopathic, which means that they produce chemicals that inhibit competing phytoplankton species. Such interspecific chemical warfare may lead to the formation of harmful phytoplankton blooms and the spread of exotic species into new habitats. This is the first report on allelopathic effects in brackish-water cyanobacteria. The experimental studies presented in this thesis showed that the filamentous cyanobacteria Anabaena sp., Aphanizomenon flos-aquae and Nodularia spumigena are capable of decreasing the growth of other phytoplankton species, especially cryptophytes, but also diatoms. The detected allelopathic effects are rather transitory, and some co-occurring species show tolerance to them. The allelochemicals are excreted during active growth and they decrease cell numbers, chlorophyll a content and carbon uptake of the target species. Although the more specific modes of action or chemical structures of the allelochemicals remain to be studied, the results clearly indicate that the allelopathic effects are not caused by the hepatotoxin, nodularin. On the other hand, cyanobacteria stimulated the growth of bacteria, other cyanobacteria, chlorophytes and flagellates in a natural phytoplankton community. In a long-term data analysis of phytoplankton abundances and hydrography of the northern Baltic Sea, a clear change was observed in phytoplankton community structure, together with a transition in environmental factors, between the late 1970s and early 2000s. Surface water salinity decreased, whereas water temperature and the concentration of dissolved inorganic nitrogen increased. In the phytoplankton community, the biomass of cyanobacteria, chrysophytes and chlorophytes significantly increased, and the late-summer phytoplankton community became increasingly cyanobacteria-dominated. In contrast, the biomass of cryptophytes decreased. The increased temperature and nutrient concentrations probably explain most of the changes in phytoplankton, but my results suggest that the possible effect of chemically mediated biological interactions should also be considered. Cyanobacterial allelochemicals can cause additional stress to other phytoplankton in the nutrient-depleted late-summer environment and thus contribute to the formation and persistence of long-lasting cyanobacterial mass occurrences. On the other hand, cyanobacterial blooms may either directly or indirectly promote the growth of some phytoplankton species. Therefore, a further increase in cyanobacteria will probably shape the late-summer pelagic phytoplankton community by stimulating some species, but inhibiting others.

Influence of spatial variability of permeability property on steady state seepage flow and slope stability analysis

In recent years, spatial variability modeling of soil parameters using random field theory has gained distinct importance in geotechnical analysis. In the present Study, commercially available finite difference numerical code FLAC 5.0 is used for modeling the permeability parameter as spatially correlated log-normally distributed random variable and its influence on the steady state seepage flow and on the slope stability analysis are studied. Considering the case of a 5.0 m high cohesive-frictional soil slope of 30 degrees, a range of coefficients of variation (CoV%) from 60 to 90% in the permeability Values, and taking different values of correlation distance in the range of 0.5-15 m, parametric studies, using Monte Carlo simulations, are performed to study the following three aspects, i.e., (i) effect ostochastic soil permeability on the statistics of seepage flow in comparison to the analytic (Dupuit's) solution available for the uniformly constant permeability property; (ii) strain and deformation pattern, and (iii) stability of the given slope assessed in terms of factor of safety (FS). The results obtained in this study are useful to understand the role of permeability variations in slope stability analysis under different slope conditions and material properties. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quasi-periodic, global oscillations in sea level pressure on intraseasonal timescales

The sea level pressure (SLP) variability in 30-60 day intraseasonal timescales is investigated using 25 years of reanalysis data addressing two issues. The first concerns the non-zero zonal mean component of SLP near the equator and its meridional connections, and the second concerns the fast eastward propagation (EP) speed of SLP compared to that of zonal wind. It is shown that the entire globe resonates with high amplitude wave activity during some periods which may last for few to several months, followed by lull periods of varying duration. SLP variations in the tropical belt are highly coherent from 25A degrees S to 25A degrees N, uncorrelated with variations in mid latitudes and again significantly correlated but with opposite phase around 60A degrees S and 65A degrees N. Near the equator (8A degrees S-8A degrees N), the zonal mean contributes significantly to the total variance in SLP, and after its removal, SLP shows a dominant zonal wavenumber one structure having a periodicity of 40 days and EP speeds comparable to that of zonal winds in the Indian Ocean. SLP from many of the atmospheric and coupled general circulation models show similar behaviour in the meridional direction although their propagation characteristics in the tropical belt differ widely.

On the mechanical behavior of compacted pack ice : A theoretical and numerical investigation

Pack ice is an aggregate of ice floes drifting on the sea surface. The forces controlling the motion and deformation of pack ice are air and water drag forces, sea surface tilt, Coriolis force and the internal force due to the interaction between ice floes. In this thesis, the mechanical behavior of compacted pack ice is investigated using theoretical and numerical methods, focusing on the three basic material properties: compressive strength, yield curve and flow rule. A high-resolution three-category sea ice model is applied to investigate the sea ice dynamics in two small basins, the whole Gulf Riga and the inside Pärnu Bay, focusing on the calibration of the compressive strength for thin ice. These two basins are on the scales of 100 km and 20 km, respectively, with typical ice thickness of 10-30 cm. The model is found capable of capturing the main characteristics of the ice dynamics. The compressive strength is calibrated to be about 30 kPa, consistent with the values from most large-scale sea ice dynamic studies. In addition, the numerical study in Pärnu Bay suggests that the shear strength drops significantly when the ice-floe size markedly decreases. A characteristic inversion method is developed to probe the yield curve of compacted pack ice. The basis of this method is the relationship between the intersection angle of linear kinematic features (LKFs) in sea ice and the slope of the yield curve. A summary of the observed LKFs shows that they can be basically divided into three groups: intersecting leads, uniaxial opening leads and uniaxial pressure ridges. Based on the available observed angles, the yield curve is determined to be a curved diamond. Comparisons of this yield curve with those from other methods show that it possesses almost all the advantages identified by the other methods. A new constitutive law is proposed, where the yield curve is a diamond and the flow rule is a combination of the normal and co-axial flow rule. The non-normal co-axial flow rule is necessary for the Coulombic yield constraint. This constitutive law not only captures the main features of forming LKFs but also takes the advantage of avoiding overestimating divergence during shear deformation. Moreover, this study provides a method for observing the flow rule for pack ice during deformation.

Fast- and drift-ice communities in the Bothnian Bay and the impact of UVA radiation on the Baltic Sea ice ecology

The aim of this thesis was to study ecology of Baltic Sea ice from two perspectives. In the first two studies, sea-ice ecology from riverine-influenced fast ice to drift ice in the Bothnian Bay was investigated, whereas the last two studies focus on the sensitivity of sea-ice bacteria and algae to UVA examined in situ. The seasonal sea ice cover is one of the main characteristics of the Baltic Sea, and despite the brackish parental water, the ice structure is similar to polar ice with saline brine inclusions, the sea ice habitat. The decreasing seawater salinity from the northern Baltic Sea to the Bothnian Bay translates to decreasing brine volumes along the gradient, governing the size and community structure of the food webs in ice. However, the drift and fast ice in the Bothnian Bay may differ greatly in this sense, as drift ice may have been formed at more southern locations. Rafting and the formation of snow ice are common processes in the ice field of the Bothnian Bay. As evidenced in this thesis, rafting altered the vertical distribution of organisms and snow-ice formation provided habitable space in the better-illuminated, nitrogen-rich surface layer. The divergence between fast and drift ice became apparent at the more advanced stages, and chlorophyte biomass decreased from fast to drift ice, while the opposite held true for protozoan and metazoan biomass. The brine volumes affected the communities somewhat, and a higher percentage of flagellate species was generally linked to lower brine volumes, whereas chain-forming diatoms were mostly concentrated in layers with larger brine volumes. These results add to knowledge of the ecological significance of the ice cover lasting up to 7 months per year in this area. Sea-ice food webs are generally light-limited, but while increasing light irradiances typically enhance the primary production and further, the secondary production in sea ice, any increase in solar radiation also includes an increase in harmful UVA radiation. The Baltic Sea ice microbial communities were clearly sensitive to UVA and the responses were strongly linked to the earlier light history, as well as to the solar irradiances they were exposed to. The increased biomass of chlorophytes and pennate diatoms, when UVA was excluded, indicates that their normally minor contribution to the biomass in the upper layers of sea ice might be partly dictated by UVA. The effects of UVA on bacterial production in Baltic Sea ice mostly followed the responses in algal growth, but occasionally the exposure to UVA even enhanced the bacterial production. The dominant bacterial class, Flavobacteria, seemed to be UVA-tolerant, whereas all the Alpha-, Beta- and Gammaproteobacteria present in the surface layer showed UVA sensitivity. These results indicate that changes in the light field of ice may alter the community structure and affect the functioning of ice food webs, and are of importance when the effects of thinning of the ice cover are assessed.

Numerical simulation of solidification of liquid aluminum alloy flowing on cooling slope

Preparation of semisolid slurry using a cooling slope is increasingly becoming popular, primarily because of the simplicity in design and ease control of the process. In this process, liquid alloy is poured down an inclined surface which is cooled from underneath. The cooling enables partial solidification and the incline provides the necessary shear for producing semisolid slurry. However, the final microstructure of the ingot depends on several process parameters such as cooling rate, incline angle of the cooling slope, length of the slope and initial melt superheat. In this work, a CFD model using volume of fluid (VOF) method for simulating flow along the cooling slope was presented. Equations for conservation of mass, momentum, energy and species were solved to predict hydrodynamic and thermal behavior, in addition to predicting solid fraction distribution and macrosegregation. Solidification was modeled using an enthalpy approach and a volume averaged technique for the different phases. The mushy region was modeled as a multi-layered porous medium consisting of fixed columnar dendrites and mobile equiaxed/fragmented grains. The alloy chosen for the study was aluminum alloy A356, for which adequate experimental data were available in the literature. The effects of two key process parameters, namely the slope angle and the pouring temperature, on temperature distribution, velocity distribution and macrosegregation were also studied.

Blue mussel beds as biodiversity hotspots on the rocky shores of the northern Baltic Sea

ABSTRACT The Baltic Sea is a vulnerable ecosystem currently undergoing a number of changes, both natural and human induced. The changes are likely to affect the species found on these shores, e.g. their distribution and interactions with other species. Blue mussels (Mytilus trossulus x Mytilus edulis) provide one of the main biogenic hard structures on the shallow shores of the Baltic Sea where they aggregate into dense beds and provide a number of resources for over 40 associated macrofaunal species, thus functioning as ecosystem engineers. The blue mussel, being a marine species, is highly likely to be affected by any changes in sea water salinity, circulation and/or water balance. These changes could trickle down also to affect the associated macrofaunal communities. The aims of this thesis were three-fold: first, I examined and described the macrofaunal communities found within blue mussel patches since the fauna associated with mussel patches had never been described in the study area prior to this thesis. Second, I explored how changes in mussel density, size as well as patch size and shape would affect the mussel communities. Finally, I tested how general landscape theories derived from terrestrial studies function in blue mussel systems. Theories included the structural heterogeneity hypothesis, species-area relationships, edge effects and patch isolation effects. The work shows that blue mussels in the northern Baltic Sea have an indisputable function as diversity hotspots and that the faunal assemblages found in mussel patches are extremely rich and unique. Further on, it shows that changes in mussel biomass, size, patch size and amount of edge have the potential to alter the faunal assemblages and diversity within patches. Finally, it shows that although some landscape theories, such as the structural heterogeneity hypothesis, seem to apply also in blue mussel communities, others cannot be directly applied due to the different prevailing conditions in the study system. This is a pioneering work looking at diversity shaping processes on the rocky shores of the Gulf of Finland, making up over 40% of the total water basin. A focus on niche construction, positive facilitation effects and ecosystem engineering could provide new insights and methods for conservation biology, but before this can be done, we need to fully understand the circumstances under which a species becomes an ecosystem engineer and recognize the systems in which it functions.

Seasonal and short-term variation in denitrification and anammox at a coastal station on the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea

Benthic processes were measured at a coastal deposition area in the northern Baltic Sea, covering all seasons. The N-2 production rates, 90-400 mu mol N m(-2) d(-1), were highest in autumn-early winter and lowest in spring. Heterotrophic bacterial production peaked unexpectedly late in the year, indicating that in addition to the temperature, the availability of carbon compounds suitable for the heterotrophic bacteria also plays a major role in regulating the denitrification rate. Anaerobic ammonium oxidation (anammox) was measured in spring and autumn and contributed 10% and 15%, respectively, to the total N-2 production. The low percentage did, however, result in a significant error in the total N-2 production rate estimate, calculated using the isotope pairing technique. Anammox must be taken into account in the Gulf of Finland in future sediment nitrogen cycling research.