Linking livelihood strategies with a regional level landscape mosaic to explore trade-offs between forest conservation and human wellbeing in a Madagascar biodiversity hotspot

The north-eastern escarpment of Madagascar contains the island’s last remaining large-scale humid forest massifs surrounded by diverse small-scale agricultural mosaics. There is high deforestation mainly caused by shifting cultivation practiced by local land users to produce upland rice for subsistence. Today, large protected areas restrict land users’ access to forests to collect wood and other forest products. Moreover, they are no more able to expand their cultivated land, which leads to shorter shifting cultivation cycles and decreasing plot sizes for irrigated rice and cash crop cultivation. Cash crop production of clove and vanilla is exposed to risks such as extreme inter-annual price fluctuations, pests and cyclones. In the absence of work opportunities, agricultural extension services and micro-finance schemes people are stuck in a poverty trap. New development strategies are needed to mitigate the trade-offs between forest conservation and human well-being. As landscape composition and livelihood strategies vary across the region, these strategies need to be spatially differentiated to avoid implementing generic solutions, which do not fit the local context. However, up to date, little is known about the spatial patterns of shifting cultivation and other land use systems at the regional level. This is mainly due to the high spatial and temporal dynamics inherent to shifting cultivation, which makes it difficult to monitor the dynamics of this land use system with remote sensing methods. Furthermore, knowledge about land users’ livelihood strategies and the risks and opportunities they face stems from very few local case studies. To overcome this challenge, firstly, we used remote sensing data and a landscape mosaic approach to delineate the main landscape types at the regional level. Secondly, we developed a land user typology based on socio-ecological data from household surveys in 45 villages spread throughout the region. Combining the land user typology with the landscape mosaic map allowed us to reveal spatial patterns of the interaction between landscapes and people and to better understand the trade-offs between forest conservation and local wellbeing. While shifting cultivation systems are being transformed into more intensive permanent agricultural systems in many countries around the globe, Madagascar seems to be an exception to this trend. Linking land cover information to human-environmental interactions over large areas is crucial to designing policies and to inform decision making for a more sustainable development of this resource-rich but poverty-prone context.

Soil and land information: How to support decision-making?

Soils are fundamental to ensuring water, energy and food security. Within the context of sus- tainable food production, it is important to share knowledge on existing and emerging tech- nologies that support land and soil monitoring. Technologies, such as remote sensing, mobile soil testing, and digital soil mapping, have the potential to identify degraded and non- /little-responsive soils, and may also provide a basis for programmes targeting the protection and rehabilitation of soils. In the absence of such information, crop production assessments are often not based on the spatio-temporal variability in soil characteristics. In addition, uncertain- ties in soil information systems are notable and build up when predictions are used for monitor- ing soil properties or biophysical modelling. Consequently, interpretations of model-based results have to be done cautiously. As such they provide a scientific, but not always manage- able, basis for farmers and/or policymakers. In general, the key incentives for stakeholders to aim for sustainable management of soils and more resilient food systems are complex at farm as well as higher levels. The same is true of drivers of soil degradation. The decision- making process aimed at sustainable soil management, be that at farm or higher level, also in- volves other goals and objectives valued by stakeholders, e.g. land governance, improved envi- ronmental quality, climate change adaptation and mitigation etc. In this dialogue session we will share ideas on recent developments in the discourse on soils, their functions and the role of soil and land information in enhancing food system resilience.

Challenges in the participatory assessment of sustainable management practices in dryland ecosystems under regime shifts

Regime shifts, defined as a radical and persistent reconfiguration of an ecosystem following a disturbance, have been acknowledged by scientists as a very important aspect of the dynamic of ecosystems. However, their consideration in land management planning remains marginal and limited to specific processes and systems. Current research focuses on mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of spatio-temporal data for specific environmental variables. These methods do not fulfill the needs of land managers, who are confronted with a multitude of processes and pressure types and require clear and simple strategies to prevent regime shift or to increase the resilience of their environment. The EU-FP7 CASCADE project is looking at regime shifts of dryland ecosystems in southern Europe and specifically focuses on rangeland and forest systems which are prone to various land degradation threats. One of the aims of the project is to evaluate the impact of different management practices on the dynamic of the environment in a participatory manner, including a multi-stakeholder evaluation of the state of the environment and of the management potential. To achieve this objective we have organized several stakeholder meetings and we have compiled a review of management practices using the WOCAT methodology, which enables merging scientific and land users knowledge. We highlight here the main challenges we have encountered in applying the notion of regime shift to real world socio-ecological systems and in translating related concepts such as tipping points, stable states, hysteresis and resilience to land managers, using concrete examples from CASCADE study sites. Secondly, we explore the advantages of including land users’ knowledge in the scientific understanding of regime shifts. Moreover, we discuss useful alternative concepts and lessons learnt that will allow us to build a participatory method for the assessment of resilient management practices in specific socio-ecological systems and to foster adaptive dryland management.

When looking back to nothing goes back to nothing

Previous research showed that the eyes revisit the location in which the stimulus has been encoded when visual or verbal information is retrieved from memory. A recent study showed that this behavior still occurs 1 week after encoding, suggesting that visual, spatial and linguistic information is tightly associated with the oculomotor trace and stored as an integrated memory representation. However, it is yet unclear whether looking behavior simply remains stable between encoding and recall or whether it changes over time in a more fine-tuned manner. Here, we investigate the time course of looking behavior during recall in multiple sessions across 1 week. Participants encoded visual objects presented in one of the four locations on the computer screen. In five sessions during the week after encoding, they performed on a visual memory recall task. During retrieval, participants looked back to the encoding location, but only in the recall sessions within 1 day of encoding. We discuss different explanations for the temporal dynamics of looking behavior during recall, searching for the role of eye movements in memory.

European summer temperatures since Roman times

The spatial context is critical when assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding their frequency and severity in a long-term perspective. Recent international initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new statistical reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and, in turn, the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatio-temporal scales. Here we provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer (June–August) temperature fields back to 755 CE based on Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on BHM and composite-plus-scaling (CPS). Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Both CPS and BHM reconstructions indicate that the mean 20th century European summer temperature was not significantly different from some earlier centuries, including the 1st, 2nd, 8th and 10th centuries CE. The 1st century (in BHM also the 10th century) may even have been slightly warmer than the 20th century, but the difference is not statistically significant. Comparing each 50 yr period with the 1951–2000 period reveals a similar pattern. Recent summers, however, have been unusually warm in the context of the last two millennia and there are no 30 yr periods in either reconstruction that exceed the mean average European summer temperature of the last 3 decades (1986–2015 CE). A comparison with an ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the reconstructed European summer temperature variability over the period 850–2000 CE reflects changes in both internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales. For pan-European temperatures we find slightly better agreement between the reconstruction and the model simulations with high-end estimates for total solar irradiance. Temperature differences between the medieval period, the recent period and the Little Ice Age are larger in the reconstructions than the simulations. This may indicate inflated variability of the reconstructions, a lack of sensitivity and processes to changes in external forcing on the simulated European climate and/or an underestimation of internal variability on centennial and longer time scales.

Sediment mobilization deposits from episodic subsurface fluid flow—A new tool to reveal long-term earthquake records?

Subsurface fluid flow can be affected by earthquakes; increased spring activity, mud vol- cano eruptions, groundwater fluctuations, changes in geyser frequency, and other forms of altered subsurface fluid flow have been documented during, after, or even prior to seismic shaking. Recently discovered giant pockmarks on the bottom of Lake Neuchâtel, Switzerland, are the lake-floor expression of subsurface fluid flow. They discharge groundwater from the Jura Mountains karstic aquifers and experience episodically increased subsurface fluid flow documented by subsurface sediment mobilization deposits at the levees of the pockmarks. In this study, we present the spatio-temporal distribution of event deposits from these phases of sediment expulsion and of multiple time-correlative mass-transport deposits. We report five striking instances of concurrent multiple subsurface sediment deposits and multiple mass- transport deposits since late glacial times, for which we propose past earthquakes as a trigger. Comparison of this new event catalogue with historic earthquakes and other independent paleoseismic records suggests that initiation of sediment expulsion requires a minimum mac- roseismic intensity of VII. Thus, our study presents for the first time sedimentary deposits resulting from increased subsurface fluid flow as a paleoseismic proxy.

Temporally Coherent Disparity Maps Using CRFs with Fast 4D Filtering

State of the art methods for disparity estimation achieve good results for single stereo frames, but temporal coherence in stereo videos is often neglected. In this paper we present a method to compute temporally coherent disparity maps. We define an energy over whole stereo sequences and optimize their Conditional Random Field (CRF) distributions using mean-field approximation. We introduce novel terms for smoothness and consistency between the left and right views, and perform CRF optimization by fast, iterative spatio-temporal filtering with linear complexity in the total number of pixels. Our results rank among the state of the art while having significantly less flickering artifacts in stereo sequences.

Space-time clustering of childhood cancers in Switzerland: A nationwide study.

The aetiology of childhood cancers remains largely unknown. It has been hypothesized that infections may be involved and that mini-epidemics thereof could result in space-time clustering of incident cases. Most previous studies support spatio-temporal clustering for leukaemia, while results for other diagnostic groups remain mixed. Few studies have corrected for uneven regional population shifts which can lead to spurious detection of clustering. We examined whether there is space-time clustering of childhood cancers in Switzerland identifying cases diagnosed at age <16 years between 1985 and 2010 from the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry. Knox tests were performed on geocoded residence at birth and diagnosis separately for leukaemia, acute lymphoid leukaemia (ALL), lymphomas, tumours of the central nervous system, neuroblastomas and soft tissue sarcomas. We used Baker's Max statistic to correct for multiple testing and randomly sampled time-, sex- and age-matched controls from the resident population to correct for uneven regional population shifts. We observed space-time clustering of childhood leukaemia at birth (Baker's Max p = 0.045) but not at diagnosis (p = 0.98). Clustering was strongest for a spatial lag of <1 km and a temporal lag of <2 years (Observed/expected close pairs: 124/98; p Knox test = 0.003). A similar clustering pattern was observed for ALL though overall evidence was weaker (Baker's Max p = 0.13). Little evidence of clustering was found for other diagnostic groups (p > 0.2). Our study suggests that childhood leukaemia tends to cluster in space-time due to an etiologic factor present in early life.

Cognitive Comparative Advantage and the Organization of Work: Lessons from Herbert Simon's Vision of the Future

In a marvelous but somewhat neglected paper, 'The Corporation: Will It Be Managed by Machines?' Herbert Simon articulated from the perspective of 1960 his vision of what we now call the New Economy the machine-aided system of production and management of the late twentieth century. Simon's analysis sprang from what I term the principle of cognitive comparative advantage: one has to understand the quite different cognitive structures of humans and machines (including computers) in order to explain and predict the tasks to which each will be most suited. Perhaps unlike Simon's better-known predictions about progress in artificial intelligence research, the predictions of this 1960 article hold up remarkably well and continue to offer important insights. In what follows I attempt to tell a coherent story about the evolution of machines and the division of labor between humans and machines. Although inspired by Simon's 1960 paper, I weave many other strands into the tapestry, from classical discussions of the division of labor to present-day evolutionary psychology. The basic conclusion is that, with growth in the extent of the market, we should see humans 'crowded into' tasks that call for the kinds of cognition for which humans have been equipped by biological evolution. These human cognitive abilities range from the exercise of judgment in situations of ambiguity and surprise to more mundane abilities in spatio-temporal perception and locomotion. Conversely, we should see machines 'crowded into' tasks with a well-defined structure. This conclusion is not based (merely) on a claim that machines, including computers, are specialized idiots-savants today because of the limits (whether temporary or permanent) of artificial intelligence; rather, it rests on a claim that, for what are broadly 'economic' reasons, it will continue to make economic sense to create machines that are idiots-savants.

Lake Son Kol geochemistry, µXRF, biogeochemistry and pollen record

In general, a moderate drying trend is observed in mid-latitude arid Central Asia since the Mid-Holocene, attributed to the progressively weakening influence of the mid-latitude Westerlies on regional climate. However, as the spatio-temporal pattern of this development and the underlying climatic mechanisms are yet not fully understood, new high-resolution paleoclimate records from this region are needed. Within this study, a sediment core from Lake Son Kol (Central Kyrgyzstan) was investigated using sedimentological, (bio)geochemical, isotopic, and palynological analyses, aiming at reconstructing regional climate development during the last 6000 years. Biogeochemical data, mainly reflecting summer moisture conditions, indicate predominantly wet conditions until 4950 cal. yr BP, succeeded by a pronounced dry interval between 4950 and 3900 cal. yr BP. In the following, a return to wet conditions and a subsequent moderate drying trend until present times are observed. This is consistent with other regional paleoclimate records and likely reflects the gradual Late Holocene diminishment of the amount of summer moisture provided by the mid-latitude Westerlies. However, climate impact of the Westerlies was apparently not only restricted to the summer season but also significant during winter as indicated by recurrent episodes of enhanced allochthonous input through snowmelt, occurring before 6000 cal. yr BP and at 5100-4350, 3450-2850, and 1900-1500 cal. yr BP. The distinct ~1500-year periodicity of these episodes of increased winter precipitation in Central Kyrgyzstan resembles similar cyclicities observed in paleoclimate records around the North Atlantic, likely indicating a hemispheric-scale climatic teleconnection and an impact of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability in Central Asia.

La minería transnacional y territorios posnacionales : un nuevo sentido histórico para Santa María, Catamarca

Este artículo versa sobre la relación entre la minería transnacional y la cuestión de la territorialidad vinculada a esta actividad. A medida que se abren fronteras, las relaciones sociales se vuelven más desterritorializadas, crece la búsqueda de las raíces culturales y nuevas experiencias locales se generan en respuesta a la emergencia de territorios posnacionales (Appadurai, 1999). Estas experiencias definen un nuevo sentido histórico para el oeste catamarqueño y Santa María – provincia de Catamarca, Argentina-, donde los sujetos sociales locales - situados históricamente en contextos de periferia del capitalismo global y nacional- mediatizan, interpelan y desnaturalizan algunas de las transformaciones espacio-temporales producidas a partir de la mega- minería en las últimas décadas, bajo un paradigma extractivista. Por su parte, los sujetos locales examinan su propia historia y analiza las conflictividades en torno a los recursos naturales, y en respuesta, constituyen territorios en red no articulados a los flujos globales del capital sino a espacios de resistencia.

Contaminación por fosfatos en el oasis bajo riego del río Mendoza

El oasis bajo riego del río Mendoza, en la provincia argentina del mismo nombre -al igual que casi todas las ciudades en la actualidadpresenta problemas de avance de la urbanización sobre las tierras agrícolas, multiplicidad de usuarios y disminución de la disponibilidad del recurso hídrico, tanto en cantidad como en calidad. Si bien se destinan esfuerzos e inversiones tendientes a asegurar la disponibilidad de agua (mejora de eficiencias, ahorro de agua) no pasa lo mismo en relación con la preservación de su calidad. La agricultura mendocina resulta víctima de la contaminación producida por la urbanización y la industria a través del vuelco (puntual y/o difuso) de sus efluentes a la red de riego. Estudios realizados en el Oasis Norte de Mendoza pusieron de manifiesto la existencia de altos niveles de contaminación fosfatada en las aguas del río Mendoza. El presente trabajo tuvo como objetivo evaluar la evolución espacio-temporal y detectar las fuentes de esta contaminación. Los resultados del diagnóstico basado en una serie de muestreos realizados en 2003 - 2009 ponen de relieve la existencia de una moderada contaminación por fosfatos en las aguas del río Mendoza que riegan el Oasis Norte provincial. Asimismo, se detectaron niveles considerablemente altos de fosfatos en tres sitios específicos del oasis: 1. la superficie regadía servida por los canales Cacique Guaymallén y Jocolí -se observa un incremento de seis veces el contenido de fosfatos del agua: de 0,2 mg L-1 (R I) a 1,2 mg L-1 (C II)-; en este último sitio sólo se riega un pequeño sector que se aproxima a las 7.300 ha; 2. la superficie regada por el Colector Pescara aguas abajo del punto D VIII (1.250 ha), en la que los valores medios arrojaron un contenido diecisiete veces mayor (8,5 mg L-1 ) que los del sitio D I (0,49 mg L-1 ) que recibe desagües agrícolas y urbano pluviales; 3. la zona del Bajo río Mendoza (en esta zona se registró un aumento de dieciséis veces más fosfatos entre la parte media y la cola del sistema, con valores medios de 0,2 mg L-1 en el sitio R II y de 3,25 mg L-1 en R III).

Chert intervals in DSDP and ODP sites (Table 1)

Radiolarian cherts in the Tethyan realm of Jurassic age were recently interpreted as resulting from high biosiliceous productivity along upwelling zones in subequatorial paleolatitudes the locations of which were confirmed by revised paleomagnetic estimates. However, the widespread occurrence of cherts in the Eocene suggests that cherts may not always be reliable proxies of latitude and upwelling zones. In a new survey of the global spatio-temporal distribution of Cenozoic cherts in Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) and Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) sediment cores, we found that cherts occur most frequently in the Paleocene and early Eocene, with a peak in occurrences at ~50 Ma that is coincident with the time of highest bottom water temperatures of the early Eocene climatic optimum (EECO) when the global ocean was presumably characterized by reduced upwelling efficiency and biosiliceous productivity. Cherts occur less commonly during the subsequent Eocene global cooling trend. Primary paleoclimatic factors rather than secondary diagenetic processes seem therefore to control chert formation. This timing of peak Eocene chert occurrence, which is supported by detailed stratigraphic correlations, contradicts currently accepted models that involve an initial loading of large amounts of dissolved silica from enhanced weathering and/or volcanism in a supposedly sluggish ocean of the EECO, followed during the subsequent middle Eocene global cooling by more vigorous oceanic circulation and consequent upwelling that made this silica reservoir available for enhanced biosilicification, with the formation of chert as a result of biosilica transformation during diagenesis. Instead, we suggest that basin-basin fractionation by deep-sea circulation could have raised the concentration of EECO dissolved silica especially in the North Atlantic, where an alternative mode of silica burial involving widespread direct precipitation and/or absorption of silica by clay minerals could have been operative in order to maintain balance between silica input and output during the upwelling-deficient conditions of the EECO. Cherts may therefore not always be proxies of biosiliceous productivity associated with latitudinally focused upwelling zones.

Seagrass time-series analysis products, in Moreton Bay, Australia, with links to GeoTIFFs

The spatial and temporal dynamics of seagrasses have been well studied at the leaf to patch scales, however, the link to large spatial extent landscape and population dynamics is still unresolved in seagrass ecology. Traditional remote sensing approaches have lacked the temporal resolution and consistency to appropriately address this issue. This study uses two high temporal resolution time-series of thematic seagrass cover maps to examine the spatial and temporal dynamics of seagrass at both an inter- and intra-annual time scales, one of the first globally to do so at this scale. Previous work by the authors developed an object-based approach to map seagrass cover level distribution from a long term archive of Landsat TM and ETM+ images on the Eastern Banks (~200 km**2), Moreton Bay, Australia. In this work a range of trend and time-series analysis methods are demonstrated for a time-series of 23 annual maps from 1988 to 2010 and a time-series of 16 monthly maps during 2008-2010. Significant new insight was presented regarding the inter- and intra-annual dynamics of seagrass persistence over time, seagrass cover level variability, seagrass cover level trajectory, and change in area of seagrass and cover levels over time. Overall we found that there was no significant decline in total seagrass area on the Eastern Banks, but there was a significant decline in seagrass cover level condition. A case study of two smaller communities within the Eastern Banks that experienced a decline in both overall seagrass area and condition are examined in detail, highlighting possible differences in environmental and process drivers. We demonstrate how trend and time-series analysis enabled seagrass distribution to be appropriately assessed in context of its spatial and temporal history and provides the ability to not only quantify change, but also describe the type of change. We also demonstrate the potential use of time-series analysis products to investigate seagrass growth and decline as well as the processes that drive it. This study demonstrates clear benefits over traditional seagrass mapping and monitoring approaches, and provides a proof of concept for the use of trend and time-series analysis of remotely sensed seagrass products to benefit current endeavours in seagrass ecology.