800 resultados para Risk and uncertainty


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The enthalpy increments and the standard molar Gibbs energy (G) of formation of SmFeO3(S) and SM3Fe5O12(s) have been measured using a Calvet micro-calorimeter and a solid oxide galvanic cell, respectively. A X-type transition, related to magnetic order-disorder transformation (antiferromagnetic to paramagnetic), is apparent from the heat capacity data at similar to673 K for SmFeO3(s) and at similar to560 K for Sm3Fe5O12(S). Enthalpy increment data for SmFeO3(s) and SM3Fe5O12(s), except in the vicinity of X-transition, can be represented by the following polynomial expressions: {H-m(0)(T) - H-m(0)(298.15 K){/J mol-(1)(+/-1.2%) = -54 532.8 + 147.4 . (T/K) + 1.2 . 10(-4) . (T/K)(2) +3.154 . 10(6) . (T/K)(-1); (298.15 less than or equal to T/K less than or equal to 1000) for SmFeO3(s), and {H-m(0)(T) - H-m(0)(298.15 K)}/J mol(-1) (+/-1.4%) = -192 763 + 554.7 . (T/K) + 2.0 . 10(-6) . (T/K)(2) + 8.161 . 10(6) - (T/K)(-1); (298.15 less than or equal to T/K less than or equal to 1000) for Sm3Fe5O12(s). The reversible emf of the solid-state electrochemical cells, (-)Pt/{SmFeO3(s) + Sm2O3(S) + Fe(s)) // YDT / CSZ // {Fe(s) + Fe0.95O(s)} / Pt(+) and (-)Pt/{Fe(s) + Fe0.95O(S)} // CSZ // {SmFeO3(s) + Sm3Fe5O12(s) + Fe3O4(s) / Pt(+), were measured in the temperature ranges of 1005-1259 K and 1030-1252 K, respectively. The standard molar G of formation of solid SmFeO3 and Sm3Fe5O12 calculated by the least squares regression analysis of the data obtained in the current study, and data for Fe0.95O and Sm2O3 from the literature, are given by: Delta(f)G(m)(0)(SmFeO3, s)/kj . mol(-1)(+/-2.0) = -1355.2 + 0.2643 . ; (1005 less than or equal to T/K less than or equal to 1570) and Delta(f)G(m)(0)(Sm3Fe5O12, s)/kj . mol(-1) (+/- 3.1) = -4891.0 + 1.0312 . (T/K); (1030 less than or equal to T/K less than or equal to 1252) The uncertainty estimates for Delta(f)G(m)(0) include the standard deviation in the emf and uncertainty in the data taken from the literature. Based on these thermodynamic data, the oxygen potential diagram for the system Sm-Fe-O was constructed at 1250 K.

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The predictability of a chaotic series is limited to a few future time steps due to its sensitivity to initial conditions and the exponential divergence of the trajectories. Over the years, streamflow has been considered as a stochastic system in many approaches. In this study, the chaotic nature of daily streamflow is investigated using autocorrelation function, Fourier spectrum, correlation dimension method (Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm) and false nearest neighbor method. Embedding dimensions of 6-7 obtained indicates the possible presence of low-dimensional chaotic behavior. The predictability of the system is estimated by calculating the system’s Lyapunov exponent. A positive maximum Lyapunov exponent of 0.167 indicates that the system is chaotic and unstable with a maximum predictability of only 6 days. These results give a positive indication towards considering streamflow as a low dimensional chaotic system than as a stochastic system.

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An important question in kernel regression is one of estimating the order and bandwidth parameters from available noisy data. We propose to solve the problem within a risk estimation framework. Considering an independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) Gaussian observations model, we use Stein's unbiased risk estimator (SURE) to estimate a weighted mean-square error (MSE) risk, and optimize it with respect to the order and bandwidth parameters. The two parameters are thus spatially adapted in such a manner that noise smoothing and fine structure preservation are simultaneously achieved. On the application side, we consider the problem of image restoration from uniform/non-uniform data, and show that the SURE approach to spatially adaptive kernel regression results in better quality estimation compared with its spatially non-adaptive counterparts. The denoising results obtained are comparable to those obtained using other state-of-the-art techniques, and in some scenarios, superior.

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Loan mortgage interest rates are usually the result of a bank-customer negotiation process. Credit risk, consumer cross-buying potential, bundling, financial market competition and other features affecting the bargaining power of the parties could affect price. We argue that, since mortgage loan is a complex product, consumer expertise could be a relevant factor for mortgage pricing. Using data on mortgage loan prices for a sample of 1055 households for the year 2005 (Bank of Spain Survey of Household Finances, EFF-2005), and including credit risk, costs, potential capacity of the consumer to generate future business and bank competition variables, the regression results indicate that consumer expertise-related metrics are highly significant as predictors of mortgage loan prices. Other factors such as credit risk and consumer cross-buying potential do not have such a significant impact on mortgage prices. Our empirical results are affected by the credit conditions prior to the financial crisis and could shed some light on this issue.

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The herbicide (±-2-[4,5-dihydro-4-methyl-4-(1-methylethyl)- 5-oxo-1 H -imidazol-2-yl]-3-pyridinecarboxylic acid (imazapyr) has shown potential to control smooth cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora Loisel), a noxious weed in many estuaries throughout the world. Research was conducted under tidal estuary conditions in Willapa Bay, Washington, to determine imazapyr’s persistence and aquatic risk and impact to non-target estuary species. Persistence of imazapyr in water and sediment followed an exponential decay.(PDF has 6 pages.)

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Climate change has rapidly emerged as a significant threat to coastal areas around the world. While uncertainty regarding distribution, intensity, and timescale inhibits our ability to accurately forecast potential impacts, it is widely accepted that changes in global climate will result in a variety of significant environmental, social, and economic impacts. Coastal areas are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change and the implications of sea-level rise, and coastal communities must develop the capacity to adapt to climate change in order to protect people, property, and the environment along our nation’s coasts. The U.S. coastal zone is highly complex and variable, consisting of several regions that are characterized by unique geographic, economic, social and environmental factors. The degree of risk and vulnerability associated with climate change can vary greatly depending on the exposure and sensitivity of coastal resources within a given area. The ability of coastal communities to effectively adapt to climate change will depend greatly on their ability to develop and implement feasible strategies that address unique local and regional factors. A wide variety of resources are available to assist coastal states in developing their approach to climate change adaptation. However, given the complex and variable nature of the U.S. coastline, it is unlikely that a single set of guidelines can adequately address the full range of adaptation needs at the local and regional levels. This panel seeks to address some of the unique local and regional issues facing coastal communities throughout the U.S. including anticipated physical, social, economic and environmental impacts, existing resources and guidelines for climate change adaptation, current approaches to climate change adaptation planning, and challenges and opportunities for developing adaptation strategies. (PDF contains 4 pages)

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Storm force flooding continues to be a major concern in the hurricane season and causes considerable loss to the coastal communities. National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) provides recovery resources for the flood disaster and dissuades uneconomic uses from locating in flood hazard area. In order to motivate flood insurance purchase and promote increased flood hazard mitigation, the Community Rating System (CRS) that is a part of NFIP, credits 18 community floodplain management activities. However, CRS has been marked by a lack of active participation since its inception limiting its potential effectiveness. As of January 2008, 1080 communities, representing only 5% of all the NFIP communities have enrolled in CRS. Little empirical evidence exists to shed light on what factors influence the establishment of local hazard mitigation projects. To fill this gap, we propose to analyze flood hazard mitigation projects in 37 North Carolina coastal counties between 2002 and 2008. Specifically, we will examine the influence of physical, risk, and socioeconomic factors on coastal community hazard mitigation decisions as reflected in the CRS score. Ultimately, our project will forge a better understanding of community decision making, as related to natural hazards. (PDF contains 4 pages)

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Energy and sustainability have become one of the most critical issues of our generation. While the abundant potential of renewable energy such as solar and wind provides a real opportunity for sustainability, their intermittency and uncertainty present a daunting operating challenge. This thesis aims to develop analytical models, deployable algorithms, and real systems to enable efficient integration of renewable energy into complex distributed systems with limited information.

The first thrust of the thesis is to make IT systems more sustainable by facilitating the integration of renewable energy into these systems. IT represents the fastest growing sectors in energy usage and greenhouse gas pollution. Over the last decade there are dramatic improvements in the energy efficiency of IT systems, but the efficiency improvements do not necessarily lead to reduction in energy consumption because more servers are demanded. Further, little effort has been put in making IT more sustainable, and most of the improvements are from improved "engineering" rather than improved "algorithms". In contrast, my work focuses on developing algorithms with rigorous theoretical analysis that improve the sustainability of IT. In particular, this thesis seeks to exploit the flexibilities of cloud workloads both (i) in time by scheduling delay-tolerant workloads and (ii) in space by routing requests to geographically diverse data centers. These opportunities allow data centers to adaptively respond to renewable availability, varying cooling efficiency, and fluctuating energy prices, while still meeting performance requirements. The design of the enabling algorithms is however very challenging because of limited information, non-smooth objective functions and the need for distributed control. Novel distributed algorithms are developed with theoretically provable guarantees to enable the "follow the renewables" routing. Moving from theory to practice, I helped HP design and implement industry's first Net-zero Energy Data Center.

The second thrust of this thesis is to use IT systems to improve the sustainability and efficiency of our energy infrastructure through data center demand response. The main challenges as we integrate more renewable sources to the existing power grid come from the fluctuation and unpredictability of renewable generation. Although energy storage and reserves can potentially solve the issues, they are very costly. One promising alternative is to make the cloud data centers demand responsive. The potential of such an approach is huge.

To realize this potential, we need adaptive and distributed control of cloud data centers and new electricity market designs for distributed electricity resources. My work is progressing in both directions. In particular, I have designed online algorithms with theoretically guaranteed performance for data center operators to deal with uncertainties under popular demand response programs. Based on local control rules of customers, I have further designed new pricing schemes for demand response to align the interests of customers, utility companies, and the society to improve social welfare.

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Time, risk, and attention are all integral to economic decision making. The aim of this work is to understand those key components of decision making using a variety of approaches: providing axiomatic characterizations to investigate time discounting, generating measures of visual attention to infer consumers' intentions, and examining data from unique field settings.

Chapter 2, co-authored with Federico Echenique and Kota Saito, presents the first revealed-preference characterizations of exponentially-discounted utility model and its generalizations. My characterizations provide non-parametric revealed-preference tests. I apply the tests to data from a recent experiment, and find that the axiomatization delivers new insights on a dataset that had been analyzed by traditional parametric methods.

Chapter 3, co-authored with Min Jeong Kang and Colin Camerer, investigates whether "pre-choice" measures of visual attention improve in prediction of consumers' purchase intentions. We measure participants' visual attention using eyetracking or mousetracking while they make hypothetical as well as real purchase decisions. I find that different patterns of visual attention are associated with hypothetical and real decisions. I then demonstrate that including information on visual attention improves prediction of purchase decisions when attention is measured with mousetracking.

Chapter 4 investigates individuals' attitudes towards risk in a high-stakes environment using data from a TV game show, Jeopardy!. I first quantify players' subjective beliefs about answering questions correctly. Using those beliefs in estimation, I find that the representative player is risk averse. I then find that trailing players tend to wager more than "folk" strategies that are known among the community of contestants and fans, and this tendency is related to their confidence. I also find gender differences: male players take more risk than female players, and even more so when they are competing against two other male players.

Chapter 5, co-authored with Colin Camerer, investigates the dynamics of the favorite-longshot bias (FLB) using data on horse race betting from an online exchange that allows bettors to trade "in-play." I find that probabilistic forecasts implied by market prices before start of the races are well-calibrated, but the degree of FLB increases significantly as the events approach toward the end.

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Background: The aims of this study were to evaluate the prevalence of HIV and its associated demographic and clinical factors among psychiatric inpatients of a general hospital. Methods: This was a single-center, observational, cross-sectional study that included patients consecutively admitted to our unit aged 16 years or older and with no relevant cognitive problems. The patients were evaluated using a semistructured interview and an appropriate test for HIV infection. Results: Of the 637 patients who were screened, 546 (86%) who consented to participate were included in the analyses. Twenty-five (4.6%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.0-6.8) patients were HIV-positive. The prevalence was higher among patients with substance misuse (17.4%, 95% CI 9.7-28.8). All except one of the 25 patients knew of their seropositive condition prior to participation in the study. Only 14 (56%) of the 25 seropositive patients had previously received pharmacological treatment for their infection. According to the multiple logistic regression analysis, the likelihood of HIV infection was lower in patients with higher levels of education and higher among patients who were single, had history of intravenous drug use, and had an HIV-positive partner, particularly if they did not use condoms. Among the patients with HIV infection, 18 (72%) had a history of suicide attempts compared with 181 (34.7%) of the patients without HIV infection (relative risk 2.1, 95% CI 1.6-2.7; P<0.001). Conclusion: HIV infection is highly prevalent in patients admitted to a psychiatric unit, especially those with a diagnosis of substance misuse. Seropositive patients show very poor treatment adherence. The risk of suicide seems to be very high in this population. Implementing interventions to reduce the suicide risk and improve adherence to antiretroviral therapy and psychotropic medications seems crucial.

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La salud es un aspecto muy importante en la vida de cualquier persona, de forma que, al ocurrir cualquier contingencia que merma el estado de salud de un individuo o grupo de personas, se debe valorar estrictamente y en detalle las distintas alternativas destinadas a combatir la enfermedad. Esto se debe a que, la calidad de vida de los pacientes variará dependiendo de la alternativa elegida. La calidad de vida relacionada con la salud (CVRS) se entiende como el valor asignado a la duración de la vida, modificado por la oportunidad social, la percepción, el estado funcional y la disminución provocadas por una enfermedad, accidente, tratamiento o política (Sacristán et al, 1995). Para determinar el valor numérico asignado a la CVRS, ante una intervención, debemos beber de la teoría económica aplicada a las evaluaciones sanitarias para nuevas intervenciones. Entre los métodos de evaluación económica sanitaria, el método coste-utilidad emplea como utilidad, los años de vida ajustado por calidad (AVAC), que consiste, por un lado, tener en cuenta la calidad de vida ante una intervención médica, y por otro lado, los años estimados a vivir tras la intervención. Para determinar la calidad de vida, se emplea técnicas como el Juego Estándar, la Equivalencia Temporal y la Escala de Categoría. Estas técnicas nos proporcionan un valor numérico entre 0 y 1, siendo 0 el peor estado y 1 el estado perfecto de salud. Al entrevistar a un paciente a cerca de la utilidad en términos de salud, puede haber riesgo o incertidumbre en la pregunta planteada. En tal caso, se aplica el Juego Estándar con el fin de determinar el valor numérico de la utilidad o calidad de vida del paciente ante un tratamiento dado. Para obtener este valor, al paciente se le plantean dos escenarios: en primer lugar, un estado de salud con probabilidad de morir y de sobrevivir, y en segundo lugar, un estado de certeza. La utilidad se determina modificando la probabilidad de morir hasta llegar a la probabilidad que muestra la indiferencia del individuo entre el estado de riesgo y el estado de certeza. De forma similar, tenemos la equivalencia temporal, cuya aplicación resulta más fácil que el juego estándar ya que valora en un eje de ordenadas y abscisas, el valor de la salud y el tiempo a cumplir en esa situación ante un tratamiento sanitario, de forma que, se llega al valor correspondiente a la calidad de vida variando el tiempo hasta que el individuo se muestre indiferente entre las dos alternativas. En último lugar, si lo que se espera del paciente es una lista de estados de salud preferidos ante un tratamiento, empleamos la Escala de Categoría, que consiste en una línea horizontal de 10 centímetros con puntuaciones desde 0 a 100. La persona entrevistada coloca la lista de estados de salud según el orden de preferencia en la escala que después es normalizado a un intervalo entre 0 y 1. Los años de vida ajustado por calidad se obtienen multiplicando el valor de la calidad de vida por los años de vida estimados que vivirá el paciente. Sin embargo, ninguno de estas metodologías mencionadas consideran el factor edad, siendo necesario la inclusión de esta variable. Además, los pacientes pueden responder de manera subjetiva, situación en la que se requiere la opinión de un experto que determine el nivel de discapacidad del aquejado. De esta forma, se introduce el concepto de años de vida ajustado por discapacidad (AVAD) tal que el parámetro de utilidad de los AVAC será el complementario del parámetro de discapacidad de los AVAD Q^i=1-D^i. A pesar de que este último incorpora parámetros de ponderación de edad que no se contemplan en los AVAC. Además, bajo la suposición Q=1-D, podemos determinar la calidad de vida del individuo antes del tratamiento. Una vez obtenido los AVAC ganados, procedemos a la valoración monetaria de éstos. Para ello, partimos de la suposición de que la intervención sanitaria permite al individuo volver a realizar las labores que venía realizando. De modo que valoramos los salarios probables con una temporalidad igual a los AVAC ganados, teniendo en cuenta la limitación que supone la aplicación de este enfoque. Finalmente, analizamos los beneficios derivados del tratamiento (masa salarial probable) si empleamos la tabla GRF-95 (población femenina) y GRM-95 (población masculina).

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O presente trabalho tem como objetivo contrastar a noção de prevenção elaborada no contexto norte-americano dos anos 60 com a emergência do risco como noção alternativa de viés preventivista na psiquiatria contemporânea. Para tanto, analisamos as concepções e teorias que fundamentavam a prevenção nos anos 60, investigando como um determinado modo de explicar a doença se articulou a interesses profissionais e a demandas sociais daquele período, contribuindo para elevar a prevenção à ação primordial e objetivo fundamental do campo psiquiátrico. Em seguida, analisamos as concepções e teorias neurocientíficas recentes sobre a formação psicopatológica e as correlatas propostas de manejo do risco que começam a se configurar como alternativa aos discursos preventivos que predominaram no século XX. Finalmente, discutimos as transformações que explicam o declínio da prevenção e a ascensão das práticas de manejo do risco, associando as modificações do campo psiquiátrico às alterações no campo da saúde e no contexto cultural do final do século XX e início do século XXI. Os objetivos da discussão são: contrastar os dois discursos psiquiátricos, tecendo considerações sobre as marcantes diferenças entre o predomínio da prevenção e a lógica do risco e sobre possíveis similaridades ou continuidades; e examinar, de forma exploratória, algumas das consequências que a associação entre categorias psiquiátricas, risco e práticas de saúde contemporâneas pode promover nas formas de conhecer, tratar e vivenciar a patologia mental.

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Atualmente, no Brasil e no mundo, há um aumento do número de mulheres que postergam a gravidez para após os 35 anos em função da estabilidade profissional, espera de um relacionamento, infertilidade, incerteza sobre o desejo de ser mãe. Independente do motivo, na proporção em que acontece, o aumento do número de mulheres que vivenciam a gravidez tardia configura-se um fenômeno irreversível, que só tende a aumentar. Esta pesquisa teve como objeto a vivência da gravidez tardia e seus objetivos foram: descrever a vivência da mulher que engravida após os 35 anos e analisar a vivência sob a perspectiva de gênero e vulnerabilidade. Estudo descritivo, com abordagem qualitativa, tendo como técnica de coleta de dados a entrevista aberta, realizada com 16 mulheres no ciclo gravídico puerperal, com idade entre 36 e 48 anos, internadas em duas maternidades públicas, cenários da pesquisa, situadas no município do Rio de Janeiro. Foram observados os princípios da Resolução n 466 de 12 de dezembro de 2012 do Conselho Nacional de Saúde. Realizou-se análise temática dos dados categorizados. O estudo mostrou que fazem parte da vivência da mulher que engravida após os 35 anos, o desejo de ser mãe; aspectos positivos relativos à idade, maturidade, discernimento, profissão mais definida, aspectos que interferem favoravelmente na relação com a criança; e como aspectos negativos, cansaço, discriminação geracional e problemas de saúde. A espiritualidade, religiosidade e rede de apoio fortalecem a mulher para o enfrentamento de possíveis dificuldades. O planejamento familiar mostrou-se inexistente para as participantes e conclui-se que ao postergar a gravidez a mulher reduz a sua prole. Os resultados evidenciaram que para o planejamento da assistência o enfermeiro ou profissional de saúde deve trabalhar em equipe e conhecer o risco e a vulnerabilidade (individual, social e programática) da sua cliente. Deve considerar a situação socioeconômica e aspectos da vida familiar e afetiva, profissional, jornada de trabalho, trabalho doméstico, rede de apoio e acessibilidade aos serviços. A fim de detectar aspectos individuais, coletivos e contextuais que aumentam a suscetibilidade da cliente. A escuta qualificada é a primeira providência para identificar as necessidades e singularidades das clientes e definir a estratégia de cuidados.