Finnish Short-Term Stock Returns

Functioning capital markets are a crucial part of a competitive economy since they provide the mechanisms to allocate resources. In order to be well functioning a capital market has to be efficient. Market efficiency is defined as a market where prices at any time fully reflect all available information. Basically, this means that abnormal returns cannot be predicted since they are dependent on future, presently unknown, information. The debate of market efficiency has been going on for several decades. Most academics today would probably agree that financial markets are reasonably efficient since virtually nobody has been able to achieve continuous abnormal positive returns. However, it is clear that a set of return anomalies exists, although they are apparently to small to enable substantial economic profit. Moreover, these anomalies can often be attributed to market design. The motivation for this work is to expand the knowledge of short-term trading patterns and to offer some explanations for these patterns. In the first essay the return pattern during the day is examined. On average stock prices move during two time periods of the day, namely, immediately after the opening and around the formal close of the market. Since stock prices, on average, move upwards these abnormal returns are generally positive and cause the distinct U-shape of intraday returns. In the second essay the results in the first essay are examined further. The return pattern around the former close is shown to partly be the result of manipulative action by market participants. In the third essay the focus is shifted towards trading patterns of the underlying stocks on days when index options and index futures on the stocks expire. Generally no expiration day effect was found. However, some indication of an expiration day effect was found when a large amount of open in- or at-the-money contracts existed. Also, the effects were likelier to be found for shares with high index-weight but fairly low trading volume. Last, in the forth essay the attention is turned to the behaviour of different tax clienteles around the dividend ex-day. Two groups of investors showed abnormal trading behaviour. Domestic non-financial investors, especially domestic companies, showed a dividend capturing behaviour, i.e. buying cum-dividend and selling ex-dividend shares. The opposite behaviour was found for foreign investors and domestic financial institutions. The effect was more notable for high yield, high volume stocks.

Essays on the Linkages Between Financial Markets, and Risk Asymmetries (summary section only)

During the last few decades there have been far going financial market deregulation, technical development, advances in information technology, and standardization of legislation between countries. As a result, one can expect that financial markets have grown more interlinked. The proper understanding of the cross-market linkages has implications for investment and risk management, diversification, asset pricing, and regulation. The purpose of this research is to assess the degree of price, return, and volatility linkages between both geographic markets and asset categories within one country, Finland. Another purpose is to analyze risk asymmetries, i.e., the tendency of equity risk to be higher after negative events than after positive events of equal magnitude. The analysis is conducted both with respect to total risk (volatility), and systematic risk (beta). The thesis consists of an introductory part and four essays. The first essay studies to which extent international stock prices comove. The degree of comovements is low, indicating benefits from international diversification. The second essay examines the degree to which the Finnish market is linked to the “world market”. The total risk is divided into two parts, one relating to world factors, and one relating to domestic factors. The impact of world factors has increased over time. After 1993, when foreign investors were allowed to freely invest in Finnish assets, the risk level has been higher than previously. This was also the case during the economic recession in the beginning of the 1990’s. The third essay focuses on the stock, bond, and money markets in Finland. According to a trading model, the degree of volatility linkages should be strong. However, the results contradict this. The linkages are surprisingly weak, even negative. The stock market is the most independent, while the money market is affected by events on the two other markets. The fourth essay concentrates on volatility and beta asymmetries. Contrary to many international studies there are only few cases of risk asymmetries. When they occur, they tend to be driven by the market-wide component rather than the portfolio specific element.

Short-term Price Behavior and the Effect of Foreign Investors in Finnish Equity Markets (summary section only)

As globalization and capital free movement has increased, so has interest in the effects of that global money flow, especially during financial crises. The concern has been that large global money flows will affect the pricing of small local markets by causing, in particular, overreaction. The purpose of this thesis is to contribute to the body of work concerning short-term under- and overreaction and the short-term effects of foreign investment flow in the small Finnish equity markets. This thesis also compares foreign execution return to domestic execution return. This study’s results indicate that short-term under- and overreaction occurs in domestic-buy portfolios (domestic net buying) rather than in foreign-buy portfolios. This under- and overreaction, however, is not economically meaningful after controlling for the bid-ask bounce effect. Based on this finding, one can conclude that foreign investors do not have a destabilizing effect in the short-term in the Finnish markets. Foreign activity affects short-term returns. When foreign investors are net buyers (sellers) there are positive (negative) market adjusted returns. Literature related to nationality and institutional effect leads us to expect these kind of results. These foreign flows are persistent at a 5 % to 21 % level and the persistence of foreign buy flow is higher than the foreign sell flow. Foreign daily trading execution is worse than domestic execution. Literature which quantifies foreign investors as liquidity demanders and literature related to front-running leads us to expect poorer foreign execution than domestic execution.

Inference on Cointegration in Vector Autoregressive Models (summary section only)

In the thesis we consider inference for cointegration in vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The thesis consists of an introduction and four papers. The first paper proposes a new test for cointegration in VAR models that is directly based on the eigenvalues of the least squares (LS) estimate of the autoregressive matrix. In the second paper we compare a small sample correction for the likelihood ratio (LR) test of cointegrating rank and the bootstrap. The simulation experiments show that the bootstrap works very well in practice and dominates the correction factor. The tests are applied to international stock prices data, and the .nite sample performance of the tests are investigated by simulating the data. The third paper studies the demand for money in Sweden 1970—2000 using the I(2) model. In the fourth paper we re-examine the evidence of cointegration between international stock prices. The paper shows that some of the previous empirical results can be explained by the small-sample bias and size distortion of Johansen’s LR tests for cointegration. In all papers we work with two data sets. The first data set is a Swedish money demand data set with observations on the money stock, the consumer price index, gross domestic product (GDP), the short-term interest rate and the long-term interest rate. The data are quarterly and the sample period is 1970(1)—2000(1). The second data set consists of month-end stock market index observations for Finland, France, Germany, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States from 1980(1) to 1997(2). Both data sets are typical of the sample sizes encountered in economic data, and the applications illustrate the usefulness of the models and tests discussed in the thesis.

Transfers of Family Businesses to Non-Family Buyers - The Selling Business Family Perspective

This study focuses on business families and how they handle transitions such as business transfers. It also tries to shift the balance of research away from successions and towards business transfers as a key topic for family business researchers. In addition, it contributes to the family business research field by further highlighting the importance of the various different contributions in the family business from business family members other than the entrepreneurial founder. Based on interviews with both business family members and business brokers, it appears as important for business families who are selling their family business that it is managed in a similar way in the future regardless of the shift in ownership and management. It is also important that the employees can stay with the business. However, employees are seldom regarded as potential buyers of the family business; most preferably, from the point of view of business family members, this should be somebody who is similar to themselves. Business transfers can be lengthy processes, but once the family business is sold, previous owners most often want to leave the family business. This disengagement can be difficult for business family members if they have not managed to build up some other identity outside the family business environment. Money may compensate for the loss in the short run, but something else is needed in the long run, since the management of money is usually not perceived as that interesting. A family business transfer can have great influence on the members of the business family who is selling, and therefore it is suggested that personal due diligence could be of some help when planning the transfer. That tool can help business family members to analyse their own personal situation, but it may also make it easier to understand how the other business family members feel about the forthcoming change. Everyone is influenced in different ways during a family business transfer, and awareness of this fact may make it easier for the whole business family to adjust to their new environment.

The expiration day effect of indexoptions and index futures on the underlying shares

This paper studies the effect of the expiration day of index options and futures on the trading volume, variance and price of the underlying shares. The data consists of all trades for the underlying shares in the FOX-index for expiration days during the period October 1995 to the mid of yer 1999. The main results seem to support the findings of Kan 2001, i.e. no manipulation on a larger scale. However, some indication of manipulation could be found if certain characteristics are favorable. These characteristics include: a) a large quantity of outstanding futures or at/in the money options contracts, b) there exists shares with high index weight but fairly low trading volume. Lastly, there is some indication that manipulation might be more popular towards the end of the examined time period.

The Pricing of American Put Options on Stock with Dividends

Pricing American put options on dividend-paying stocks has largely been ignored in the option pricing literature because the problem is mathematically complex and valuation usually resorts to computationally expensive and impractical pricing applications. This paper computed a simulation study, using two different approximation methods for the valuation of American put options on a stock with known discrete dividend payments. This to find out if there were pricing errors and to find out which could be the most usable method for practical users. The option pricing models used in the study was the dividend approximation by Blomeyer (1986) and the one by Barone-Adesi and Whaley (1988). The study showed that the approximation method by Blomeyer worked satisfactory for most situations, but some errors occur for longer times to the dividend payment, for smaller dividends and for in-the-money options. The approximation method by Barone-Adesi and Whaley worked well for in-the-money options and at-the-money options, but had serious pricing errors for out-of-the-money options. The conclusion of the study is that a combination of the both methods might be preferable to any single model.

Volatility Smile Dynamics in Scenario Analysis

The objective of this paper is to suggest a method that accounts for the impact of the volatility smile dynamics when performing scenario analysis for a portfolio consisting of vanilla options. As the volatility smile is documented to change at least with the level of implied at-the-money volatility, a suitable model is here included in the calculation process of the simulated market scenarios. By constructing simple portfolios of index options and comparing the ex ante risk exposure measured using different pricing methods to realized market values, ex post, the improvements of the incorporation of the model are monitored. The analyzed examples in the study generate results that statistically support that the most accurate scenarios are those calculated using the model accounting for the dynamics of the smile. Thus, we show that the differences emanating from the volatility smile are apparent and should be accounted for and that the methodology presented herein is one suitable alternative for doing so.

Customer Energy in Relationships

All companies have a portfolio of customer relationships. From a managerial standpoint the value of these customer relationships is a key issue. The aim of the paper is to introduce a conceptual framework for customers’ energy towards a service provider. Customer energy is defined as the cognitive, affective and behavioural effort a customer puts into the purchase of an offering. It is based on two dimensions: life theme involvement and relationship commitment. Data from a survey study of 425 customers of an online gambling site was combined with data about their individual purchases and activity. Analysis showed that involvement and commitment influence both customer behaviour and attitudes. Customer involvement was found to be strongly related to overall spending within a consumption area, whereas relationship commitment is a better predictor of the amount of money spent at a particular company. Dividing the customers into four different involvement / commitment segments revealed differences in churn rates, word-of-mouth, brand attitude, switching propensity and the use of the service for socializing. The framework provides a tool for customer management by revealing differences in fundamental drivers of customer behaviour resulting in completely new customer portfolios. Knowledge of customer energy allows companies to manage their communication and offering development better and provides insight into the risk of losing a customer.

Re-Conceptualizing Value-Creation From Industrial Business Logic to Service Business Logic

There is an urgent interest in marketing to move away from neo-classical value definitions suggesting that value creation is a process of exchanging goods for money. In the present paper, value creation is conceptualized as an integration of two distinct, yet closely coupled processes. First, actors co-create what this paper calls an underlying basis of value. This is done by interactively re-configuring resources. By relating and combining resources, activity sets, and risks across actor boundaries in novel ways actors create joint productivity gains – a concept very similar to density (Normann, 2001). Second, actors engage in a process of signification and evaluation. Signification implies co-constructing the meaning and worth of joint productivity gains co-created through interactive resource re-configuration, as well as sharing those gains through a pricing mechanism as value to involved actors. The conceptual framework highlights an all-important dynamics associated with ´value creation´ and ´value´ - a dynamics the paper claims has eluded past marketing research. The paper argues that the framework presented here is appropriate for the interactive service perspective, where value and value creation are not objectively given, but depend on the power of involved actors´ socially constructed frames to mobilize resources across actor boundaries in ways that ´enhance system well-being´ (Vargo et al., 2008). The paper contributes to research on Service Logic, Service-Dominant Logic, and Service Science.

What Determines Stock Option Contract Design?

This paper analyzes factors driving the design of stock option plans for Finnish firms. We examine determinants of the scope of plans, exercise price, target group, and dividend protection. The scope is found to be negatively related to Tobin’s Q and positively related to proxies for monitoring costs. The scope is also greater in broad-based plans, and in plans with dividend protection. Prior stock return is found to be negatively related to the size of the premium (out-of-the-moneyness), whereas dividend protection increases the premium. The results also suggest that investment intensity, cash flow, and monitoring costs are associated with the likelihood of granting premium (out-of-the-money) stock options. Furthermore, the likelihood of granting broad-based plans is increasing in institutional ownership and cash flow constraints, and decreasing in firm size. Broad-based plans are also more likely among firms in growth industries. We find support that the likelihood of dividend protection is decreasing in foreign ownership. In addition, firms paying zero-dividends are less likely to include dividend protection, whereas higher unsystematic risk is associated with a greater likelihood of including dividend protection.

"Miksi lehmät pitää tappaa?" : Etnografinen tutkimus 2000-luvun alun huumemarkkinoista Helsingissä

The present study focuses on the drug market in Helsinki in the early 2000s, mainly on the dealing in and use of amphetamines, cannabis and the pharmaceutical Subutex. The drug market is usually analysed into upper, middle and lower level markets. These levels are very different in terms of their operating practices, although there may be some mingling. The present study is mainly concerned with drug dealers and users in the lower and middle level markets. Operations also differ depending on whether the dealing involves just one drug or several. Dealing in and using Subutex is a very different business from dealing and using home grown cannabis, for instance: both the customers and the dealers are mostly quite different. The study material was mostly collected through ethnographical field work, including observations and interviews. Interviews with officials and minutes of pre-trial investigations concerning aggravated drug crimes are also included. The study discusses the roles of dealers on the various levels of the drug market in Helsinki and traces activities at various levels. Ethnographical methods are employed to observe day-to-day drug dealing and use and leisure pursuits in private homes and in public premises. The study takes note of the risks inherent in drug dealing and estimates what kind of drug dealers can last the longest on the market without the authorities intervening. At the same time, the study discusses how small groups on the middle and lower levels of the drug market avoid control measures undertaken by the authorities and how the authorities address these groups. Moreover, the study discusses what the drug market is like in prison from the perspective of a drug dealer sent to prison, what their everyday lives are like after release, and how much money dealers on various levels of the drug market make. The study demonstrates that drug dealing in Helsinki, whether we consider the very top or the very bottom of the pyramid, is a far from rational pursuit. The undertakings are not very systematic; they are more a reaction to intoxicant addiction( s) and other problems caused by other dealers, the dealers own actions and the actions of the police. The everyday lives of drug dealers are often chaos only alleviated by drug use in the company of buyers or alone. If a drug dealer uses drugs himself/herself, things become even more complicated and a vicious circle develops. At the same time, everyday life is certainly exciting, and a drug dealer often has a highly eventful if brief life. Drug dealing is a very masculine pursuit, and there is a sort of macho code governing it, although this does not nearly always work as it should. This macho code, typically for illegal activities, involves the threat of violence as a control measure. Hence the untranslatable slang expression Kill the cows : the Finnish word for calf has the slang meaning snitch or police informant . No more cows, no more calves. But informing on others to the authorities is a fact of life in the drug-dealing world. Contributing factors to being reported to the authorities are the dealer s own mistakes and the actions of other dealers and the police. A determined drug dealer will not be deterred from drug dealing by a prison sentence. However, following time in prison only few dealers manage to gain an income from drug dealing commensurate with its risks.

Kädestä suuhun : Makro- ja mikrotaloudellinen tarkastelu suomalaisten kotitalouksien säästämisestä ja sen mittaamisesta 1950-luvulla

This study is divided into two parts: a methodological part and a part which focuses on the saving of households. In the 1950 s both the concepts as well as the household surveys themselves went through a rapid change. The development of national accounts was motivated by the Keynesian theory and the 1940 s and 1950 s were an important time for the development of the national accounts. Before this, saving was understood as cash money or money deposited in bank accounts but the changes in this era led to the establishment of the modern saving concept. Separate from the development of national accounts, household surveys were established. Household surveys have been conducted in Finland from the beginning of the 20th century. At that time surveys were conducted in order to observe the working class living standard and as a result, these were based on the tradition of welfare studies. Also a motivation for undertaking the studies was to estimate weights for the consumer price index. A final reason underpinning the government s interest in observing this data regarded whether there were any reasons for the working class to become radicalised and therefore adopt revolutionary ideas. As the need for the economic analysis increased and the data requirements underlying the political decision making process also expanded, the two traditions and thus, the two data sources started to integrate. In the 1950s the household surveys were compiled distinctly from the national accounts and they were virtually unaffected by economic theory. The 1966 survey was the first study that was clearly motivated by national accounts and saving analysis. This study also covered the whole population rather than it being limited to just part of it. It is essential to note that the integration of these two traditions is still continuing. This recently took a big step forward as the Stiglitz, Sen and Fitoussi Committee Report was introduced and thus, the criticism of the current measure of welfare was taken seriously. The Stiglitz report emphasises that the focus in the measurement of welfare should be on the households and the macro as well as micro perspective should be included in the analysis. In this study the national accounts are applied to the household survey data from the years 1950-51, 1955-56 and 1959-60. The first two studies cover the working population of towns and market towns and the last survey covers the population of rural areas. The analysis is performed at three levels: macro economic level, meso level, i.e. at the level of different types of households, and micro level, i.e. at the level of individual households. As a result it analyses how the different households saved and consumed and how that changed during the 1950 s.

Ratkaiseeko raha? : Tulospalkkiojärjestelmään ja työympäristöön liittyvien kokemusten yhteys esimiesten työtyytyväisyyteen ja työmotivaatioon

The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between merit pay system and work environment and foremen´s work satisfaction and work motivation. There has been a lot of investigation on rewarding. Less research has been done on previous surveys among the merit pay systems and motivation investigations. According to former surveys, rewarding systems cannot be released from its context. Therefore this survey expanded to deal with work environment. It was also essential to investigate different dimensions of extrinsic and intrinsic motivation and equity of rewarding. Investigation or work motivation and work satisfaction was challenging because both of these concepts have been investigated under quite traditional frame of reference of work motivation theories. In some surveys, the concepts have not been even separated or they have been used even as synonyms. The data were collected with the 193 foremen working in the profit centers of the different chains of the company in the field of retail trade. The questions were: Are the experiences of merit pay system and work environment related to foremen´s work satisfaction and work motivation? Are the backround variables related to foremen´s work satisfaction and work motivation? The data collection was carried out by an electronic inquiry during May 2010. 137 replied from foremen working under merit pay system. The research material was analyzed with PASW-software. Various analyzing methods were used: factor analyses, regression analyses and group of different parametric and non-parametric analyses. In contrast to theoretical framework in the factor analyses work satisfaction and work motivation clustered into the same dimension. As a main result the atmosphere, possibilities to influence and the atmosphere of leading were strongly positively related to foremen´s work satisfaction and work motivation. According to regression analyses these factors were able to explain 55 % of the foremen´s work satisfaction and work motivation. The best explanatory variable was atmosphere. Instead, the backround variables (age, sex, working years, group of profession, education) were not associated with work satisfaction and work motivation.

Helsingin seudun ruuhkamaksut yritysnäkökulmasta

Congestion of traffic is one of the biggest challenges for urban cities in global perspective. Car traffic and traffic jams are causing major problems and the congestion is predicted to worsen in the future. The greenhouse effect has caused a severe threat to the environment globally. On the other hand from the point of view of companies and other economic parties time and money has been lost because of the congestion of traffic. This work studies some possible traffic payment systems for the Helsinki Metropolitan area introducing three optional models and concentrating on the point of view of the economic parties. Central part of this work is formed by a research questionnaire, which was conducted among companies located in the Helsinki area and where more than 1000 responses were gained. The study researches the approaches of the respondents to the area s current traffic system, its development and urban congestion pricing and the answers are analyzed according to the size, industry and location of the companies. The economic aspect is studied by economic theory of industrial location and by emphasizing the meaning of smoothly running traffic for the economic world. Chapter three presents detailed information about traffic congestion, how today s car-centered society has been formed, what concrete things congestion means for economic life and how traffic congestion can be limited. Theoretically it is examined how urban traffic payment systems are working using examples from London and Stockholm where successful traffic payment experiences exist. The literature review analyzes urban development, increasing car traffic and Helsinki Metropolitan area on a structural point of view. The fourth chapter introduces a case study, which concentrates on Helsinki Metropolitan area s different structures, the congestion situation in Helsinki and the introduction of the traffic payment system clarification. Currently the region is experiencing a phase where big changes are happening in the planning of traffic. The traffic systems are being unified to consider the whole region in the future. Also different advices for the increasing traffic congestion problems are needed. Chapter five concentrates on the questionnaire and theme interviews and introduces the research findings. The respondents overall opinion of the traffic payments is quite skeptical. There were some regional differences found and especially taxi, bus and cargo and transit enterprises shared the most negative opinion. Economic parties were worried especially because of the traffic congestion is causing harm for the business travel and the employees traveling to and from work. According to the respondents the best option from the traffic payment models was the ring model where the payment places would be situated inside the Ring Road III. Both the company representatives and other key decision makers see public transportation as a good and powerful tool to decrease traffic congestion. The only question, which remains, is where to find investors willing to invest in public transportation if economic representatives do not believe in pricing the traffic by for example traffic payment systems.