Graded Relative Evidence

Relative Evidential Supports (RES) was developed and justified several years ago as a non-numeric apparatus that allows us to compare evidential supports for alternative conclusions when making a decision. An extension called Graded Relative Evidence (GRE) of the RES concept of pairwise balancing and trading-off of evidence is reported here which keeps its basic features of simplicity and perspicacity but enriches its modelling fidelity by permitting very modest and intuitive variations in degrees of outweighing (which the essentially binary RES does not). The formal justification is very simply based on linkages to RES and to the Dempster - Shafer theory of evidence. The use of the simple extension is illustrated and to a small degree further justified empirically by application to a topical scientific debate about what is called the Congo Crossover Conjecture here. This decision-making instance is chosen because of the wealth of evidence that has been accumulated on both sides of the debate and the range of evidence strengths manifested in it. The conjecture is that the advent of Aids was in the late 1950s in the Congo when a vaccine for polio was allegedly cultivated in the kidneys of chimpanzees which allowed the Aids infection to cross over to humans from primates. © 2005 Springer.

Análisis de las condiciones laborales en las entidades de la economía social en España desde una perspectiva de género

Las empresas de economía social comparten unos valores que motivan un comportamiento diferente de éstas en relación con la composición de sus plantillas, las condiciones de trabajo, su especialización productiva y su ubicación geográfica frente a las empresas ordinarias (sociedades anónimas y laborales) que no son de economía social. Este comportamiento diferencial constituye, a su vez, una importante aportación a la cohesión social y, de forma específica, desde el punto de vista de género, proporciona una mejora de la presencia y posición de las mujeres en el ámbito laboral. El objetivo principal de esta investigación es evaluar la existencia de elementos diferenciales entre las empresas de economía social y las ordinarias en cuanto a la igualdad de oportunidades, condiciones y trayectorias laborales desde una perspectiva de género, centrando el estudio en el caso de España. A partir de la Muestra Continua de Vidas Laborales (2010) se identifican dos grupos de empresas, de economía social (grupo objetivo) y de economía "no social" u ordinaria (grupo de control) equivalentes en cuanto a tamaño y sector de actividad. Para cada grupo y sus respectivos/as trabajadores/as, se realizan contrastes paramétricos y no paramétricos de diferencias de medias entre mujeres y hombres en relación a diferentes características laborales como el tipo de jornada, la duración del contrato o la estabilidad en la trayectoria laboral en la empresa. Además, se lleva a cabo una estimación de la discriminación salarial en ambos grupos siguiendo el modelo Oaxaca-Blinder. Los resultados muestran que las empresas de economía social ofrecen mejores condiciones en el acceso y la permanencia en el puesto laboral a las mujeres, una mayor estabilidad laboral y menor discriminación salarial frente a los hombres.

A framework for assessing the vulnerability of food systems to future shocks

Modem society depends on complex agro-ecological and trading systems to provide food for urban residents, yet there are few tools available to assess whether these systems are vulnerable to future disturbances. We propose a preliminary framework to assess the vulnerability of food systems to future shocks based on landscape ecology's 'Panarchy Framework'. According to Panarchy, ecosystem vulnerability is determined by three generic characteristics: (1) the wealth available in the system, (2) how connected the system is, and (3) how much diversity exists in the system. In this framework, wealthy, non-diverse, tightly connected systems are highly vulnerable. The wealth of food systems can be measured using the approach pioneered by development economists to assess how poverty affects food security. Diversity can be measured using the tools investors use to measure the diversity of investment portfolios to assess financial risk. The connectivity of a system can be evaluated with the tools chemists use to assess the pathways chemicals use to flow through the environment. This approach can lead to better tools for creating policy designed to reduce vulnerability, and can help urban or regional planners identify where food systems are vulnerable to shocks and disturbances that may occur in the future. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing the Transaction Costs of Firms in the EU ETS: Lessons form Ireland

Until now, there has been little empirical evidence that EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) transaction costs are incurred at firm level. The transaction costs (internal costs, capital costs, consultancy and trading costs) incurred by Irish firms under the EU ETS during its pilot phase (2005-2007) were measured and analysed. Evidence for the sources of transaction costs, their magnitude and the distribution of costs shows that these were mainly administrative in nature. Considerable variation in costs was found due to economies of scale, as the costs per tonne of CO2 were lower for participants with larger allocations. For the largest firms - accounting for over half the emissions - average transaction costs were €0.05 per tonne. However, for small firms, average transaction costs were €2.02 - over 18% of the current allowance price. This supports the concerns that transaction costs are excessive for smaller participants. The immediate policy implication is that additional attention will be needed to address different sizes of firms, number of installations per firm, and the size of the initial allocations.

Determining trophic niche width: An experimental test of the stable isotope approach

Determining the trophic niche width of an animal population and the relative degree to which a generalist population consists of dietary specialists are long-standing problems of ecology. It has been proposed that the variance of stable isotope values in consumer tissues could be used to quantify trophic niche width of consumer populations. However, this promising idea has not yet been rigorously tested. By conducting controlled laboratory experiments using model consumer populations (Daphnia sp., Crustacea) with controlled diets, we investigated the effect of individual- and population-level specialisation and generalism on consumer d C mean and variance values. While our experimental data follow general expectations, we extend current qualitative models to quantitative predictions of the dependence of isotopic variance on dietary correlation time, a measure for the typical time over which a consumer changes its diet. This quantitative approach allows us to pinpoint possible procedural pitfalls and critical sources of measurement uncertainty. Our results show that the stable isotope approach represents a powerful method for estimating trophic niche widths, especially when taking the quantitative concept of dietary correlation time into account. © 2012 The Authors.

Market Economies with an Endogenous Social Division of Labour

This paper considers a general equilibrium theory of a competitive market economy with an endogenous social division of labour. The theory is founded on the notion of a “consumer- producer”, who consumes as well as produces commodities. In this approach, the emergence of a meaningful social division of labour is guided by the property of increasing returns to specialisation and the process of trade among fully specialised individuals. All decisions of individual consumer-producers are based on a set of perfectly competitive market prices of the commodities in the economy.
We show that a perfectly competitive price mechanism supports a dichotomy of production and consumption at the level of the individual consumer-producer. In this context we show existence of competitive equilibria and characterise these equilibria under increasing returns to specialisation: Under certain well-described conditions, markets are equilibrated through adjustment of the social division of labour; therefore prices are fully determined by the supply side of the economy.

A comunicação empresarial nos mercados internacionais através de feiras exposições

Dissertação de Mestrado Apresentada ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Empreendedorismo e Internacionalização, sob orientação do Mestre Adalmiro Álvaro Malheiro de Castro Andrade Pereira

Explaining the Persistence of Commodity Prices

This paper extends the Competitive Storage Model by incorporating prominent features of the production process and financial markets. A major limitation of this basic model is that it cannot successfully explain the degree of serial correlation observed in actual data. The proposed extensions build on the observation that in order to generate a high degree of price persistence, a model must incorporate features such that agents are willing to hold stocks more often than predicted by the basic model. We therefore allow unique characteristics of the production and trading mechanisms to provide the required incentives. Specifically, the proposed models introduce (i) gestation lags in production with heteroskedastic supply shocks, (ii) multiperiod forward contracts, and (iii) a convenience return to inventory holding. The rational expectations solutions for twelve commodities are numerically solved. Simulations are then employed to assess the effects of the above extensions on the time series properties of commodity prices. Results indicate that each of the features above partially account for the persistence and occasional spikes observed in actual data. Evidence is presented that the precautionary demand for stocks might play a substantial role in the dynamics of commodity prices.

Análisis de la vulnerabilidad en condiciones de dependencia en el caso chileno y mexicano durante la crisis económica mundial 2008-2010

La presente monografía busca analizar el comportamiento de las economías chilena y mexicana durante la crisis económica mundial (2008-2010), para estimar el grado de dependencia económica que estas presentan, el cual está determinado por sus patrones de comercio y sus socios comerciales. A partir de lo anterior, la investigación propone como objetivos particulares: describir las principales características de las economías chilena y mexicana e identificar los factores propios de estas economías que canalizaron los efectos negativos de la crisis económica mundial de 2008; analizar los efectos que las variaciones de los parámetros de observación seleccionados (exportaciones e IED) trajeron sobre la balanza de pagos de Chile y México durante los años de la crisis (2008-2010) para determinar su vulnerabilidad; y comparar los resultados del cálculo de vulnerabilidad de cada economía para estimar el grado de dependencia que presentan Chile y México.

Plan exportador de la empresa ProAmérica LTDA

La empresa Proamerica Ltda con una trayectoria de más de 40 años, perteneciente al sector químico, dedicada a fabricar y comercializar productos para el aseo, decide emprender junto al Centro de Investigación y Desarrollo (CIDEM) el proceso de internacionalización de la empresa, buscando un crecimiento, rentabilidad y supervivencia en el largo plazo; el CIDEM coloco a su alcance un guía de cómo exportar, dirigida a facilitar el conocimiento y desarrollo de cada una de las etapas involucradas dentro del proceso exportador. En el marco teórico metodológico se realizo en primera instancia una preselección de países en el cual se tuvo en cuenta aspectos como el destino actual de las exportaciones colombianas del producto a exportar (Limpiador Fresco Desinfectante), la afinidad cultural y comercial, preferencias arancelarias, países competidores y disponibilidad de transporte; paso a seguir se escogieron tres países (potencial, contingente y alterno), describiendo una reseña económica, geográfica y política de cada país, estimando un costo de transporte al mercado potencial teniendo en cuenta las exigencias de entrada del producto y régimen comercial. Así mismo, obteniendo información del mercado como productos, precios, comercialización, competencia y promoción. En este sentido, se hizo una evaluación de las condiciones de la compañía frente al mercado potencial escogido de acuerdo a la organización, producción, producto, mercadeo, finanzas y competitividad. Finalmente, se definió la planeación de la exportación teniendo en cuenta los objetivos, estrategias, búsqueda de clientes y mecanismos de familiarización con el mercado.

Análisis e implementación del proceso de importación para la empresa Cajas y Cartones

La empresa Cajas y Cartones, ubicada en Barranquilla, Atlántico. Es una empresa productora y comercializadora de productos hechos a partir de papel y cartón. En el presente año se encuentra creando un plan de expansión basándose en la mejora de sus procesos. Uno de los puntos claves de mejora es la diversificación de proveedores; no solo contar con proveedores nacionales sino incluir también proveedores internacionales. Esto conlleva a la empresa a una búsqueda de proveedores de materia prima en el exterior, evaluando variables como la competencia, la disponibilidad de material y los altos precios en el mercado nacional de papel y cartón con el objetivo de disminuir sus costos y ampliar sus posibilidades de cobertura de mercado. Es por esta razón que surge el proyecto de investigación aplicada (Proyecto de aplicación práctica-PAP), el cual se basa en el análisis estructural de la compañía, el estudio e investigación internacional de proveedores de papel y cartón, la consecución de posibles proveedores y analizando los costos tanto logísticos como financieros de mover mercancía desde otras partes del mundo hacia Colombia. Finalmente se estudia la implementación y adecuación de un departamento de comercio exterior dentro de la compañía, con el objetivo que la empresa esté preparada para futuras importaciones con respecto al conocimiento del mercado internacional, trámites, normas y requisitos extranjeros y nacionales, transporte y movimiento de mercancía en ámbitos internacionales y agenciamiento aduanero.

Detecting intraday periodicities with application to high frequency exchange rates

Many recent papers have documented periodicities in returns, return volatility, bid–ask spreads and trading volume, in both equity and foreign exchange markets. We propose and employ a new test for detecting subtle periodicities in time series data based on a signal coherence function. The technique is applied to a set of seven half-hourly exchange rate series. Overall, we find the signal coherence to be maximal at the 8-h and 12-h frequencies. Retaining only the most coherent frequencies for each series, we implement a trading rule that is based on these observed periodicities. Our results demonstrate in all cases except one that, in gross terms, the rules can generate returns that are considerably greater than those of a buy-and-hold strategy, although they cannot retain their profitability net of transactions costs. We conjecture that this methodology could constitute an important tool for financial market researchers which will enable them to detect, quantify and rank the various periodic components in financial data better.

The underlying return generating factors for REIT returns: an application of independent component analysis

Multi-factor approaches to analysis of real estate returns have, since the pioneering work of Chan, Hendershott and Sanders (1990), emphasised a macro-variables approach in preference to the latent factor approach that formed the original basis of the arbitrage pricing theory. With increasing use of high frequency data and trading strategies and with a growing emphasis on the risks of extreme events, the macro-variable procedure has some deficiencies. This paper explores a third way, with the use of an alternative to the standard principal components approach – independent components analysis (ICA). ICA seeks higher moment independence and maximises in relation to a chosen risk parameter. We apply an ICA based on kurtosis maximisation to weekly US REIT data using a kurtosis maximising algorithm. The results show that ICA is successful in capturing the kurtosis characteristics of REIT returns, offering possibilities for the development of risk management strategies that are sensitive to extreme events and tail distributions.

Limiting factors in the restoration of UK grassland beetle assemblages

Grasslands restoration is a key management tool contributing to the long-term maintenance of insect populations, providing functional connectivity and mitigating against extinction debt across landscapes. As knowledge of grassland insect communities is limited, the lag between the initiation of restoration and the ability of these new habitats to contribute to such processes is unclear. Using ten data sets, ranging from 3 to 14 years, we investigate the lag between restoration and the establishment of phytophagous beetle assemblages typical of species rich grasslands. We used traits and ecological characteristics to determine factors limiting beetle colonisation, and also considered how food-web structure changed during restoration. For sites where seed addition of host-plants occurred the success in replicating beetle assemblages increased over time following a negative exponential function. Extrapolation beyond the existing data set tentatively suggested that success would plateau after 20 years, representing a c. 60% increase in assemblage similarity to target grasslands. In the absence of seed addition, similarity to the target grasslands showed no increase over time. Where seed addition was used the connectance of plant-herbivore food webs decreased over time, approaching values typical of species rich grasslands after c. 7 years. This trend was, however, dependent on the inclusion of a single site containing data in excess of 6 years of restoration management. Beetles not capable of flight, those showing high degrees of host-plant specialisation and species feeding on nationally rare host plants take between 1 and 3 years longer to colonise. Successful grassland restoration is underpinned by the establishment of host-plants, although individual species traits compound the effects of poor host-plant establishment to slow colonisation. The use of pro-active grassland restoration to mitigate against future environmental change should account for lag periods in excess of 10 years if the value of these habitats is to be fully realised.

Institutional pressures on financial services firms: the role of information systems in regulatory compliance

The financial crisis of 2008 led to new international regulatory controls for the governance, risk and compliance of financial services firms. Information systems play a critical role here as political, functional and social pressures may lead to the deinstitutionalization of existing structures, processes and practices. This research examines how an investment management system is introduced by a leading IT vendor across eight client sites in the post-crisis era. Using institutional theory, it examines changes in working practices occurring at the environmental and organizational levels and the ways in which technological interventions are used to apply disciplinary effects in order to prevent inappropriate behaviors. The results extend the constructs of deinstitutionalization and identify empirical predictors for the deinstitutionalization of compliance and trading practices within financial organizations.