Data to Decision in a Dynamic Ocean: Robust Species Distribution Models and Spatial Decision Frameworks

Human use of the oceans is increasingly in conflict with conservation of endangered species. Methods for managing the spatial and temporal placement of industries such as military, fishing, transportation and offshore energy, have historically been post hoc; i.e. the time and place of human activity is often already determined before assessment of environmental impacts. In this dissertation, I build robust species distribution models in two case study areas, US Atlantic (Best et al. 2012) and British Columbia (Best et al. 2015), predicting presence and abundance respectively, from scientific surveys. These models are then applied to novel decision frameworks for preemptively suggesting optimal placement of human activities in space and time to minimize ecological impacts: siting for offshore wind energy development, and routing ships to minimize risk of striking whales. Both decision frameworks relate the tradeoff between conservation risk and industry profit with synchronized variable and map views as online spatial decision support systems.

For siting offshore wind energy development (OWED) in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 4), bird density maps are combined across species with weights of OWED sensitivity to collision and displacement and 10 km2 sites are compared against OWED profitability based on average annual wind speed at 90m hub heights and distance to transmission grid. A spatial decision support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot views by site. A selected site can be inspected for sensitivity to a cetaceans throughout the year, so as to capture months of the year which minimize episodic impacts of pre-operational activities such as seismic airgun surveying and pile driving.

Routing ships to avoid whale strikes (chapter 5) can be similarly viewed as a tradeoff, but is a different problem spatially. A cumulative cost surface is generated from density surface maps and conservation status of cetaceans, before applying as a resistance surface to calculate least-cost routes between start and end locations, i.e. ports and entrance locations to study areas. Varying a multiplier to the cost surface enables calculation of multiple routes with different costs to conservation of cetaceans versus cost to transportation industry, measured as distance. Similar to the siting chapter, a spatial decisions support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot view of proposed routes. The user can also input arbitrary start and end locations to calculate the tradeoff on the fly.

Essential to the input of these decision frameworks are distributions of the species. The two preceding chapters comprise species distribution models from two case study areas, U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2) and British Columbia (chapter 3), predicting presence and density, respectively. Although density is preferred to estimate potential biological removal, per Marine Mammal Protection Act requirements in the U.S., all the necessary parameters, especially distance and angle of observation, are less readily available across publicly mined datasets.

In the case of predicting cetacean presence in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2), I extracted datasets from the online OBIS-SEAMAP geo-database, and integrated scientific surveys conducted by ship (n=36) and aircraft (n=16), weighting a Generalized Additive Model by minutes surveyed within space-time grid cells to harmonize effort between the two survey platforms. For each of 16 cetacean species guilds, I predicted the probability of occurrence from static environmental variables (water depth, distance to shore, distance to continental shelf break) and time-varying conditions (monthly sea-surface temperature). To generate maps of presence vs. absence, Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to define the optimal threshold that minimizes false positive and false negative error rates. I integrated model outputs, including tables (species in guilds, input surveys) and plots (fit of environmental variables, ROC curve), into an online spatial decision support system, allowing for easy navigation of models by taxon, region, season, and data provider.

For predicting cetacean density within the inner waters of British Columbia (chapter 3), I calculated density from systematic, line-transect marine mammal surveys over multiple years and seasons (summer 2004, 2005, 2008, and spring/autumn 2007) conducted by Raincoast Conservation Foundation. Abundance estimates were calculated using two different methods: Conventional Distance Sampling (CDS) and Density Surface Modelling (DSM). CDS generates a single density estimate for each stratum, whereas DSM explicitly models spatial variation and offers potential for greater precision by incorporating environmental predictors. Although DSM yields a more relevant product for the purposes of marine spatial planning, CDS has proven to be useful in cases where there are fewer observations available for seasonal and inter-annual comparison, particularly for the scarcely observed elephant seal. Abundance estimates are provided on a stratum-specific basis. Steller sea lions and harbour seals are further differentiated by ‘hauled out’ and ‘in water’. This analysis updates previous estimates (Williams & Thomas 2007) by including additional years of effort, providing greater spatial precision with the DSM method over CDS, novel reporting for spring and autumn seasons (rather than summer alone), and providing new abundance estimates for Steller sea lion and northern elephant seal. In addition to providing a baseline of marine mammal abundance and distribution, against which future changes can be compared, this information offers the opportunity to assess the risks posed to marine mammals by existing and emerging threats, such as fisheries bycatch, ship strikes, and increased oil spill and ocean noise issues associated with increases of container ship and oil tanker traffic in British Columbia’s continental shelf waters.

Starting with marine animal observations at specific coordinates and times, I combine these data with environmental data, often satellite derived, to produce seascape predictions generalizable in space and time. These habitat-based models enable prediction of encounter rates and, in the case of density surface models, abundance that can then be applied to management scenarios. Specific human activities, OWED and shipping, are then compared within a tradeoff decision support framework, enabling interchangeable map and tradeoff plot views. These products make complex processes transparent for gaming conservation, industry and stakeholders towards optimal marine spatial management, fundamental to the tenets of marine spatial planning, ecosystem-based management and dynamic ocean management.

Exposure to pesticides, ill health and averting behaviour : costs and determining the relationship

Farmers' exposure to pesticides is high in developing countries. As a result many farmers suffer from ill-health, both short and long term. Deaths are not uncommon. This paper addresses this issue. Field survey data from Sri Lanka are used to estimate farmers' expenditure on defensive behavior (DE) and to determine factors that influence DE. The avertive behavior approach is used to estimate costs. Tobit regression analysis is used to determine factors that influence DE. Field survey data show that farmers' expenditures on DE are low. This is inversely related to high incidence of ill health among farmers using pesticides.

Cost-effectiveness of an intervention to reduce emergency re-admissions to hospital among older patients

Background. The objective is to estimate the cost-effectiveness of an intervention that reduces hospital readmission among older people at high risk. A cost-effectiveness model to estimate the costs and health benefits of the intervention was implemented. Methodology/Principal Findings. The model used data from a randomised controlled trial conducted in an Australian tertiary metropolitan hospital. Participants were acute medical admissions aged >65 years with at least one risk factor for readmission: multiple comorbidities, impaired functionality, aged >75 years, 30 recent multiple admissions, poor social support, history of depression. The intervention was a comprehensive nursing and physiotherapy assessment and an individually tailored program of exercise strategies and nurse home visits with telephone follow-up; commencing in hospital and continuing following discharge for 24 weeks. The change to cost outcomes, including the costs of implementing the intervention and all subsequent use of health care services, and, the change to health benefits, represented by quality adjusted life years, were estimated for the intervention as compared to existing practice. The mean change to total costs and quality 38 adjusted life years for an average individual over 24 weeks participating in the intervention were: cost savings of $333 (95% Bayesian credible interval $-1,932:1,282) and 0.118 extra quality adjusted life years (95% Bayesian credible interval 0.1:0.136). The mean net41 monetary-benefit per individual for the intervention group compared to the usual care condition was $7,907 (95% Bayesian credible interval $5,959:$9,995) for the 24 week period. Conclusions/Significance. The estimation model that describes this intervention predicts cost savings and improved health outcomes. A decision to remain with existing practices causes unnecessary costs and reduced health. Decision makers should consider adopting this 46 program for elderly hospitalised patients.

A clear view of costs ‘of and incidental to’ : Mio Art Pty Ltd v Macequest (No.2) Pty Ltd [2013] QSC 271

In Mio Art Pty Ltd v Macequest (No.2) Pty Ltd [2013] QSC 271 Jackson J provided considered analysis of several aspects of costs law. His Honour regarded various orders which are commonly sought or made as reflecting practice that is inappropriate or unnecessary under the Uniform Civil Procedure Rules 1999 (Qld) (UCPR).

Costs - solicitor's retainer on 'no win, no fee' basis - meaning of 'win' - solicitor not entitled to recover excess of costs over amount paid on settlement - no consideration for variation of oral retainer.

In Baker Johnson Lawyers v Jorgensen [2002] QDC 205 McGill DCJ considered the meaning of a 'no win, no fee' retainer and concluded that, in the absence of qualification by agreement, solicitors retained on that basis were not entitled to recover costs exceeding the amount of any judgment or settlement.

Costs order against company in liquidation unlikely to be effective indemnity

In Kimtran v Downie [2003] QCA 424, the Queensland Court of Appeal allowed an appeal from the decision of a District Court judge who had ordered costs against a non-party liquidator. It held that the court's decision in relation to the awarding of costs against a liquidator was not constrained by the decision of the of the Court of Appeal in Mahaffey v Belar Pty Ltd [1999] QCA 2 in the manner stated in the District Court.

Description and predictors of hospital costs of oesophageal cancer during the first year following diagnosis in Northern Ireland

The cost-effectiveness of novel interventions in the treatment of cancer is well researched; however, relatively little attention is paid to the cost of many aspects of routine care. Oesophageal cancer is the ninth most common cancer in the UK and sixth most common cause of cancer death. It usually presents late and has a poor prognosis. The hospital costs incurred by oesophageal cancer patients diagnosed in Northern Ireland in 2005 (n = 198) were determined by review of medical records. The average cost of hospital care per patient in the 12 months from presentation was £7847. Variations in total hospital costs by age at diagnosis, gender, cancer stage, histological type, mortality at 1 year, co-morbidity count and socio-economic status were analysed using multiple regression analyses. Higher costs were associated with earlier stages of cancer and cancer stage remained a significant predictor of costs after controlling for cancer type, patient age and mortality at 1 year. Thus, although early detection of cancer usually improves survival, this would mean increased costs in the first year. Deprivation achieved borderline significance with those from more deprived areas having lower resource consumption relative to the more affluent. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Machine Learning for Predictive Maintenance: A Multiple Classifiers Approach

In this paper a multiple classifier machine learning methodology for Predictive Maintenance (PdM) is presented. PdM is a prominent strategy for dealing with maintenance issues given the increasing need to minimize downtime and associated costs. One of the challenges with PdM is generating so called ’health factors’ or quantitative indicators of the status of a system associated with a given maintenance issue, and determining their relationship to operating costs and failure risk. The proposed PdM methodology allows dynamical decision rules to be adopted for maintenance management and can be used with high-dimensional and censored data problems. This is achieved by training multiple classification modules with different prediction horizons to provide different performance trade-offs in terms of frequency of unexpected breaks and unexploited lifetime and then employing this information in an operating cost based maintenance decision system to minimise expected costs. The effectiveness of the methodology is demonstrated using a simulated example and a benchmark semiconductor manufacturing maintenance problem.

Single and joint effects of natural and chemical stressors to the terrestrial isopod Porcellionides pruinosus

Environmental contamination and climate changes constitute two of the most serious problems affecting soil ecosystems in agricultural fields. Agriculture is nowadays a highly optimized process that strongly relies on the application of multiple pesticides to reduce losses and increase yield production. Although constituting, per se, a serious problem to soil biota, pesticide mixtures can assume an even higher relevance in a context of unfavourable environmental conditions. Surprisingly, frameworks currently established for environmental risk assessments keep not considering environmental stressors, such as temperature, soil moisture or UV radiation, as factors liable to influence the susceptibility of organisms to pesticides, or pesticide mixtures, which is raising increasing apprehension regarding their adequacy to actually estimate the risks posed by these compounds to the environment. Albeit the higher attention received on the last few years, the influence of environmental stressors on the behaviour and toxicity of chemical mixtures remains still poorly understood. Aiming to contribute for this discussion, the main goal of the present thesis was to evaluate the single and joint effects of natural stressors and pesticides to the terrestrial isopod Porcellionides pruinosus. The first approach consisted on evaluating the effects of several abiotic factors (temperature, soil moisture and UV radiation) on the performance of P. pruinosus using several endpoints: survival, feeding parameters, locomotor activity and avoidance behaviour. Results showed that these stressors might indeed affect P. pruinosus at relevant environmental conditions, thus suggesting the relevance of their consideration in ecotoxicological assays. At next, a multiple biomarker approach was used to have a closer insight into the pathways of damage of UV radiation and a broad spectrum of processes showed to be involved (i.e. oxidative stress, neurotoxicity, energy). Furthermore, UV effects showed to vary with the environment medium and growth-stage. A similar biomarker approach was employed to assess the single and joint effects of the pesticides chlorpyrifos and mancozeb to P. pruinosus. Energy-related biomarkers showed to be the most differentiating parameters since age-classes seemed to respond differently to contamination stress and to have different metabolic costs associated. Finally, the influence of temperature and soil moisture on the toxicity of pesticide mixtures was evaluated using survival and feeding parameters as endpoints. Pesticide-induced mortality was found to be oppositely affected by temperature, either in single or mixture treatments. Whereas chlorpyrifos acute toxicity was raised under higher temperatures the toxicity of mancozeb was more prominent at lower temperatures. By the opposite, soil moisture showed no effects on the pesticide-induced mortality of isopods. Contrary to survival, both temperature and soil moisture showed to interact with pesticides to influence isopods’ feeding parameters. Nonetheless, was however the most common pattern. In brief, findings reported on this thesis demonstrated why the negligence of natural stressors, or multiple stressors in general, is not a good solution for risk assessment frameworks.

Extractive industry financial accounting : where to from here?

By far the most important, difficult and complex policy issue to resolve in the context of the extractive industry concerns the accounting for preproduction costs and mineral reserves, and the disclosure of relevant supplementary data about them. The accounting profession has been unable to settle this particular issue, except in the most contrived of senses. Indeed, many consider the issue to be unresolvable. This paper focuses on the primary financial statements and proposes a partial solution to the issue. The Proposed Method describes a set of new procedures and primary financial statements that are intended to be more serviceable and possess greater predictive power than is currently the case.

Paternal Care Decreases Foraging Activity and Body Condition, but Does Not Impose Survival Costs to Caring Males in a Neotropical Arachnid

Exclusive paternal care is the rarest form of parental investment in nature and theory predicts that the maintenance of this behavior depends on the balance between costs and benefits to males. Our goal was to assess costs of paternal care in the harvestman Iporangaia pustulosa, for which the benefits of this behavior in terms of egg survival have already been demonstrated. We evaluated energetic costs and mortality risks associated to paternal egg-guarding in the field. We quantified foraging activity of males and estimated how their body condition is influenced by the duration of the caring period. Additionally, we conducted a one-year capture-mark-recapture study and estimated apparent survival probabilities of caring and non-caring males to assess potential survival costs of paternal care. Our results indicate that caring males forage less frequently than non-caring individuals (males and females) and that their body condition deteriorates over the course of the caring period. Thus, males willing to guard eggs may provide to females a fitness-enhancing gift of cost-free care of their offspring. Caring males, however, did not show lower survival probabilities when compared to both non-caring males and females. Reduction in mortality risks as a result of remaining stationary, combined with the benefits of improving egg survival, may have played an important and previously unsuspected role favoring the evolution of paternal care. Moreover, males exhibiting paternal care could also provide an honest signal of their quality as offspring defenders, and thus female preference for caring males could be responsible for maintaining the trait.

Costs and benefits of temporary brood desertion in a Neotropical harvestman (Arachnida: Opiliones)

Brood desertion is a life history strategy that allows parents to minimize costs related to parental care and increase their future fecundity. The harvestman Neosadocus maximus is an interesting model organism to study costs and benefits of temporary brood desertion because females abandon their clutches periodically and keep adding eggs to their clutches for some weeks. In this study, we tested if temporary brood desertion (a) imposes a cost to caring females by increasing the risk of egg predation and (b) offers a benefit to caring females by increasing fecundity as a result of increased foraging opportunities. With intensive field observations followed by a model selection approach, we showed that the proportion of consumed eggs was very low during the day and it was not influenced by the frequency of brood desertion. The proportion of consumed eggs was higher at night and it was negatively related to the frequency of brood desertion. However, frequent brood desertion did not result in higher fecundity, measured both as the number of eggs added to the current clutch and the probability of laying a second clutch over the course of the reproductive season. Considering that harvestmen are sensitive to dehydration, brood desertion during the day may attenuate the physiological stress of remaining exposed on the vegetation. Moreover, since brood desertion is higher during the day, when egg predation pressure is lower, caring females could be adjusting their maternal effort to the temporal variation in predation risk, which is regarded as the main cost of brood desertion in ectotherms.

Epidemiology and direct medical costs of osteoporotic fractures in men and women in Switzerland

The aim of this study was to estimate the hospitalization incidence and the total number of hospital days related to all fractures and osteoporotic fractures in the year 2000 in Switzerland and to compare these with data from other frequent disorders in men and women. The official administrative and medical statistics database of the Swiss Federal Office of Statistics (SFOS) from the year 2000 was used. It covered 81.2% of all registered patient admissions and was considered to be representative of the entire population. We included the ICD-10 codes of 84 diagnoses that were compatible with an underlying osteoporosis and applied the best matching age-specific osteoporosis attribution rates published for the ICD-9 diagnosis codes to the individual ICD-10 codes. To preserve comparability with previously published data from 1992, we grouped the data related to the ICD-10 fracture codes into seven diagnosis pools (fractures of the axial skeleton, fractures of the proximal upper limbs, fractures of the distal upper limbs, fractures of the proximal lower limbs, fractures of the distal lower limbs, multiple fractures, and osteoporosis) and analyzed them separately for women and men by age group. Incidences of hospitalization due to fractures were calculated, and the direct medical costs related to hospitalization were estimated. In addition, we compared the results with those from chronic pulmonary obstructive disease (COPD), stroke, acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, diabetes and breast carcinoma from the same database. In Switzerland during 2000, 62,535 hospitalizations for fractures (35,586 women and 26,949 men) were registered. Fifty-one percent of all fractures in women and 24% in men were considered as osteoporotic. The overall incidences of hospitalization due to fractures were 969 and 768 per 100,000 in women and men, respectively. The hospitalization incidences for fractures of the proximal lower limbs and the axial skeleton increased exponentially after the age of 65 years. The direct medical cost of hospitalization of patients with osteoporosis and/or related fractures was 357 million CHF. Hip fractures accounted for approximately half of these costs in women and men. Among other common diseases in women and men, osteoporosis ranked number 1 in women and number 2 (behind COPD) in men. When compared with data from 1992, the average length of stay had shortened by 8.4 days for women and 4.7 days for men, leading to a decrease of almost 40% in direct medical costs related to acute hospitalizations. This apparent decrease in cost might result from a shift into the ambulatory cost segment, for which the assessment and management tools need to be developed. We conclude that, in 2000, osteoporosis continued to be a heavy burden on the Swiss healthcare system. Lack of awareness of the disease and its consequences prevents widespread use of drugs with anti-fracture efficacy. This limits their potential to reduce costs.

Random error in willingness to pay measurement: A multiple indicators, latent variable approach to the reliability of contingent values

The reliability of measurement refers to unsystematic error in observed responses. Investigations of the prevalence of random error in stated estimates of willingness to pay (WTP) are important to an understanding of why tests of validity in CV can fail. However, published reliability studies have tended to adopt empirical methods that have practical and conceptual limitations when applied to WTP responses. This contention is supported in a review of contingent valuation reliability studies that demonstrate important limitations of existing approaches to WTP reliability. It is argued that empirical assessments of the reliability of contingent values may be better dealt with by using multiple indicators to measure the latent WTP distribution. This latent variable approach is demonstrated with data obtained from a WTP study for stormwater pollution abatement. Attitude variables were employed as a way of assessing the reliability of open-ended WTP (with benchmarked payment cards) for stormwater pollution abatement. The results indicated that participants' decisions to pay were reliably measured, but not the magnitude of the WTP bids. This finding highlights the need to better discern what is actually being measured in VVTP studies, (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tooth replacement for partially dentate elders: a willingness-to-pay analysis

Objectives: The primary aim of this study was to investigate partially dentate elders' willingness-to-pay (WTP) for two different tooth replacement strategies: Removable Partial Dentures (RPDs) and, functionally orientated treatment according to the principles of the Shortened Dental Arch (SDA). The secondary aim was to measure the same patient groups' WTP for dental implant treatment.Methods: 55 patients who had completed a previous RCT comparing two tooth replacement strategies (RPDs (n=27) and SDA (n=28)) were recruited (Trial Registration no. ISRCTN26302774). Patients were asked to indicate their WTP for treatment to replace missing teeth in a number of hypothetical scenarios using the payment card method of contingency evaluation coupled to different costs. Data were collected on patients' social class, income levels and other social circumstances. A Mann-Whitney U Test was used to compare differences in WTP between the two treatment groups. To investigate predictive factors for WTP, multiple linear regression analyses were conducted.Results: The median age for the patient sample was 72.0 years (IQR: 71-75 years). Patients who had been provided with RPDs indicated that their WTP for this treatment strategy was significantly higher (€550; IQR: 500-650) than those patients who had received SDA treatment (€500; IQR: 450-550) (p=0.003). However patients provided with RPDs indicated that their WTP for SDA treatment (€650; IQR: 600-650) was also significantly higher than those patients who had actually received functionally orientated treatment (€550; IQR: 500-600) (p<0.001). The results indicated that both current income levels and previous treatment allocation were significantly correlated to WTP for both the RPD and the SDA groups. Patients in both treatment groups exhibited little WTP for dental implant treatment with a median value recorded which was half the market value for this treatment (€1000; IQR: 500-1000).Conclusions: Amongst this patient cohort previous treatment experience had a strong influence on WTP as did current income levels. Both treatment groups indicated a very strong WTP for simpler, functionally orientated care using adhesive fixed prostheses (SDA) over conventional RPDs. Clinical significance: Partially dentate older patients expressed a strong preference for functionally orientated tooth replacement as an alternative to conventional RPDs.