Financial Futures Markets and Their Impact on the Real Economy in Middle and Low Income Countries

This project analyses the influence of the futures market on middle and low income countries. In it, I attempt to show that investments made by large investment funds in this market, as well as by certain pension plans, bring major consequences whose effects are more evident in less developed countries. The cornerstones of the work are as follows; to attempt to see the existing relationship between the commodity futures market and its underlying assets; analysing products such as wheat, rice and corn in-depth, because these are the most basic foodstuffs at a global level; to determine how an increase in trading in these markets can affect the lives of people in the poorest countries; to analyse investor concern regarding the consequences that their investments may have. Throughout the project we will see how large speculators use production forecasting models to determine the shortage of a commodity in order to take a position in the futures market to profit from it. In addition we will see how an increase in trading in this market causes an increase in the price of the underlying asset in the spot market. As for investor concern, I can say it is negligible, but the idea of running pension plans or investment funds that follow some social criteria has been welcomed by those interviewed, which makes me think that different legislation is possible. This legislation will only come into existence if it is demanded by the people. A fact that now becomes complicated because without a minimum financial basis, they cannot even know how the large investment funds trade with hunger in the world. The day when most people understand how large speculators profit from famine will be the day to put pressure on governments to begin to put limits on speculation. This makes financial awareness necessary in order to achieve a curb in excessive speculation.

The Shawlies: A study of early neoliberal ‘gender-fication’. The Street Trading Act, 1926, modern gender-fication, and the implications for Cork’s women street traders

For centuries Cork’s Shawlies, working-class women, survived by trading on public streets. My study explores how the first Irish Free State government, and Cork’s local authority, limited the rights of poor women to earn by subsistence trading with The Street Trading Act, 1926. The government insisted this would regulate street trading. In practice it further marginalised the women economically and socially, containing them outside the privileged, commercial city centre. In Cork the legislation facilitated the gradual disappearance of the Shawlies amid entrenched social processes and relations, contingencies that allowed for the abuse of their rights in the service of amalgamated business interests. This study address the role of discourses in deepening this marginalisation. My theoretical framework is designed to demonstrate how a seemingly innocuous piece of legislation would, in practice, do this. I set out the concepts of ‘Thriving State’, ‘Prosperous State’, and state of ‘Best Intentions’ that uses gentrification to meet these goals. The existing knowledge on women in trade is then examined, highlighting the gaps in what is known about the Shawlies. Chapter 3 details the theory behind my genealogical method. The legislation, debate, and other data produced at the national level is then examined, before moving to the local data. Chapter 6 is devoted to the Shawlies, setting their stories in the larger context of the debates. An examination of studies of contemporary women street traders in poor nations follows, along with a brief history of the decline of street trading in New York city under gentrification. Points of convergence between that process and the one in Cork are identified, along with convergences between contemporary traders and the Shawlies. The conclusion sets out my methodological, theoretical and substantive discoveries, and comments on current nostalgic renderings of the Shawlies in Cork’s newly gentrified Corn Market Street.

An Absence of Ghosts: cultural and theatrical translation in the British Reception of The Mysteries-Yiimimangaliso

Mark Dornford-May’s widely-acclaimed adaptation of the medieval English Chester “mystery” plays, The Mysteries-Yiimimangaliso, reveal the extent to which theatrical translation, if it is to be intelligible to audiences, risks trading in cultural stereotypes belonging to both source and target cultures. As a South African production of a medieval English theatrical tradition which subsequently plays to an English audience, The Mysteries-Yiimimangaliso enacts a number of disorientating forms of cultural translation. Rather than facilitating the transmission of challenging literary and dramatic traditions, The Mysteries-Yiimimangaliso reveals the extent to which translation, as a politically correct - and thus politically anaemic - act, can become an end in itself in a globalised Anglophone theatrical culture.

Multi-agent Simulation of Bilateral Contracting in Competitive Electricity Markets

Traditional vertically integrated power utilities around the world have evolved from monopoly structures to open markets that promote competition among suppliers and provide consumers with a choice of services. Market forces drive the price of electricity and reduce the net cost through increased competition. Electricity can be traded in both organized markets or using forward bilateral contracts. This article focuses on bilateral contracts and describes some important features of an agent-based system for bilateral trading in competitive markets. Special attention is devoted to the negotiation process, demand response in bilateral contracting, and risk management. The article also presents a case study on forward bilateral contracting: a retailer agent and a customer agent negotiate a 24h-rate tariff.

Analyse comparative du concept de malhonnêteté en droit criminel et en droit des sociétés

"Mémoire présenté à la Faculté des études supérieures en vue de l'obtention du grade de maîtrise en droit option droit des affaires". Ce mémoire a été classé parmi les 15% des mémoires de la discipline.

Essays in open economy macroeconomics with borrowing frictions

Cette thèse comporte trois essais en macroéconomie en économie ouverte et commerce international. Je considère tour à tour les questions suivantes: sous quelles conditions est-il optimal pour un pays de former une union économique? (essai 1); l'augmentation de la dispersion transversale des avoirs extérieurs nets des pays est-elle compatible avec une dispersion relativement stable des taux d'investissement? (essai 2); le risque de perte de marché à l'exportation du fait de l'existence des zones de commerce préférentiel joue t-il un rôle dans la décision des pays exclus de négocier des accords commerciaux à leur tour? (essai 3). Le premier essai examine les conditions d'optimalité d'une union économique. Il s'intéresse à une motivation particulière: le partage du risque lié aux fluctuations du revenu. Dans la situation initiale, les pays ont très peu d'opportunités pour partager le risque à cause des frictions: les marchés financiers internationaux sont incomplets et il n'y pas de mécanisme pour faire respecter les contrats de crédit entre pays. Dans ce contexte, une union économique apparait comme un arrangement qui pallie à ces frictions entre les pays membres seulement. Cependant, l'union dans son ensemble continue de faire face à ces frictions lorsqu'elle échange avec le reste du monde. L'arbitrage clé dans le modèle est le suivant. D'un coté, l'intégration économique permet un meilleur partage du risque entre pays membres et la possibilité pour le partenaire pauvre d'utiliser la ligne de crédit du partenaire riche en cas de besoin. De l'autre coté, l'union peut faire face à une limite de crédit plus restrictive parce que résilier la dette extérieure est moins coûteux pour les membres l'union. De plus, le fait que le partenaire pauvre peut utiliser la limite de crédit du partenaire riche génère une externalité négative pour ce dernier qui se retrouve plus fréquemment contraint au niveau des marchés internationaux des capitaux. En conformité avec les faits observés sur l'intégration économique, le modèle prédit que les unions économiques sont relativement peu fréquentes, sont plus susceptibles d'être créées parmi des pays homogènes, et généralement riches. Le deuxième essai porte sur la dispersion des avoirs extérieurs nets et la relation avec la dispersion des taux d'investissement. Au cours des récentes décennies, la dispersion croissante des déséquilibres extérieurs et les niveaux record atteints par certaines grandes économies ont reçu une attention considérable. On pourrait attribuer ce phénomène à une réduction des barrières aux mouvements internationaux des capitaux. Mais dans ce cas, il est légitime de s'attendre à une augmentation de la dispersion au niveau des taux d'investissement; ceci, parce que le financement des besoins en investissements constitue une raison fondamentale pour laquelle les pays échangent les capitaux. Les données indiquent cependant que la dispersion des taux d'investissement est restée relativement stable au cours des récentes décennies. Pour réconcilier ces faits, je construis un modèle d'équilibre général dynamique et stochastique où les pays sont hétérogènes en raison des chocs idiosyncratiques à leurs niveaux de productivité totale des facteurs. Au niveau des marchés internationaux des capitaux, le menu des actifs disponibles est restreint à une obligation sans risque et il n'y a pas de mécanisme pour faire respecter les contrats de crédit entre pays. A tout moment, un pays peut choisir de résilier sa dette extérieure sous peine d'exclusion financière et d'un coût direct. Ce coût direct reflète les canaux autres que l'exclusion financière à travers lesquels les pays en défaut sont pénalisés. Lorsque le modèle est calibré pour reproduire l'évolution de la dispersion transversale des avoirs extérieurs nets, il produit une dispersion relativement stable des taux d'investissement. La raison principale est que les incitations que les pays ont à investir sont liées à la productivité. Avec l'intégration financière, même si les opportunités d'emprunt se sont multipliées, les incitations à investir n'ont pas beaucoup changé. Ce qui permet de générer une dispersion accrue de la position des avoirs extérieurs nets des pays avec une dispersion relativement stable des taux d'investissement. Le troisième essai analyse un aspect de l'interdépendance dans la formation des accords commerciaux préférentiels: j'examine empiriquement si le risque de diversion des exportations en faveur des pays membres des zones de commerce préférentiel est un facteur déterminant dans la décision des pays exclus de ces accords de négocier un accord à leur tour. Je construis un indicateur qui mesure le potentiel de diversion des exportations auquel font face les pays et estime un modèle probit de formation des zones de commerce préférentiel créées entre 1961 et 2005. Les résultats confirment que les pays confrontés à un plus grand potentiel de détournement des échanges sont plus susceptibles de former une zone de commerce préférentiel à leur tour.

Retos y alternativas de inversión para las compañías aseguradoras en Colombia

En este documento se explica el rol de las compañías aseguradoras colombianas dentro del sistema pensional y se busca, a través de la comprensión de la evolución del entorno macroeconómico y del marco regulatorio, identificar los retos que enfrentan. Los retos explicados en el documento son tres: el reto de la rentabilidad, el reto que plantean los cambios relativamente frecuentes de la regulación, y el reto del “calce”. El documento se enfoca principalmente en el reto de la rentabilidad y desarrolla un ejercicio de frontera eficiente que utiliza retornos esperados calculados a partir de la metodología de Damodaran (2012). Los resultados del ejercicio soportan la idea de que en efecto los retornos esperados serán menores para cualquier nivel de riesgo y sugiere que ante tal panorama, la relajación de las restricciones impuestas por el Régimen de inversiones podría alivianar los preocupaciones de las compañías aseguradoras en esta materia. Para los otros dos retos también se sugieren alternativas: el Algorithmic Trading para el caso del reto que impone los cambios en la regulación, y las Asociaciones Público-Privadas para abordar el reto del “calce”.

Does uncertainty cause inertia in decision making? An experimental study of the role of regret aversion and indecisiveness

Previous research has shown that often there is clear inertia in individual decision making---that is, a tendency for decision makers to choose a status quo option. I conduct a laboratory experiment to investigate two potential determinants of inertia in uncertain environments: (i) regret aversion and (ii) ambiguity-driven indecisiveness. I use a between-subjects design with varying conditions to identify the effects of these two mechanisms on choice behavior. In each condition, participants choose between two simple real gambles, one of which is the status quo option. I find that inertia is quite large and that both mechanisms are equally important.

Credit and liquidity components of corporate CDS spreads

This paper investigates the role of credit and liquidity factors in explaining corporate CDS price changes during normal and crisis periods. We find that liquidity risk is more important than firm-specific credit risk regardless of market conditions. Moreover, in the period prior to the recent “Great Recession” credit risk plays no role in explaining CDS price changes. The dominance of liquidity effects casts serious doubts on the relevance of CDS price changes as an indicator of default risk dynamics. Our results show how multiple liquidity factors including firm specific and aggregate liquidity proxies as well as an asymmetric information measure are critical determinants of CDS price variations. In particular, the impact of informed traders on the CDS price increases when markets are characterised by higher uncertainty, which supports concerns of insider trading during the crisis.

Insiders, outsiders, and the role of local enforcement in forest management: an example from Tanzania

In low-income countries, both nearby local villagers, “insiders”, and non-locals, “outsiders”, extract products from protected forests even though their actions are illegal. Forest managers typically combine enforcement and livelihood projects offered to nearby communities to reduce this illegal activity, but with limited budgets cannot deter all extraction. We develop a game theoretic model of a forest manager's decision interacting with the extraction decisions of insiders and outsiders. Our analysis suggests that, depending on the relative ecological damage caused by each group, budget-constrained forest managers may reduce total forest degradation by legalizing “insider” extraction in return for local villagers' involvement in enforcement activities against outsiders.

Insiders conseguem retornos anormais?: estudos de eventos sobre as operações de insiders das empresas de governança corporativa diferenciada da Bovespa

O assunto insider trading é bastante polêmico há muito tempo, como, exemplo disto se tem o Securities Exchange Act of 1934 sobre Insider Trading nos Estados Unidos, e a discussão continua nos dias de hoje com casos como da Ambev e da Martha Stewart em 2004. Este trabalho apresenta um conjunto de estudos de eventos realizados sobre as operações com ações da empresa realizadas por insiders com o objetivo de detectar retornos excedentes aos esperados, em função do acesso a informações privilegiadas. O banco de dados é composto por operações realizadas pelos insiders das empresas com ações negociadas na Bovespa, que são classificadas como de governança corporativa diferenciada. Foram constatados indícios de operações realizadas pelos insiders que resultaram em retornos excedentes aos esperados estatisticamente significativos, como nas compras de ações ordinárias pelos Controladores, Familiares, e Clubes de Investimentos; ou pelas vendas de ações preferenciais pelos Diretores, Conselheiros, Assessores, e Consultores do Conselho.

Do insiders get abnormal returns? : event studies on the trades of insiders of the firms with differentiated corporate governance of the São Paulo stock exchange

The subject insider trading is controversial. This paper presents series of event studies carried through on the trades with stocks of the firm carried by insiders with the objective to detect abnormal returns, based on the access to privileged information. The sample is composed by trades performed by insiders of the companies with stocks negotiated in the São Paulo Stock Exchange, that are classified as firms with differentiated corporate governance. Indication that trades performed by insiders resulted in abnormal returns compared to the statistically significant expected ones, as in the purchases of common shares; or for selling of preferred stocks.

Renewable energy sources in Latin America and the Caribbean: situation and policy proposals

Includes bibliography

An empirical investigation of the effect of rights issue announcements on share returns and the determinants of abnormal returns on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange

This thesis examines the effect of rights issue announcements on stock prices by companies listed on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE) between 1987 to 1996. The emphasis is to report whether the KLSE is semi strongly efficient with respect to the announcement of rights issues and to check whether the implications of corporate finance theories on the effect of an event can be supported in the context of an emerging market. Once the effect is established, potential determinants of abnormal returns identified by previous empirical work and corporate financial theory are analysed. By examining 70 companies making clean rights issue announcements, this thesis will hopefully shed light on some important issues in long term corporate financing. Event study analysis is used to check on the efficiency of the Malaysian stock market; while cross-sectional regression analysis is executed to identify possible explanators of the rights issue announcements' effect. To ensure the results presented are not contaminated, econometric and statistical issues raised in both analyses have been taken into account. Given the small amount of empirical research conducted in this part of the world, the results of this study will hopefully be of use to investors, security analysts, corporate financial managements, regulators and policy makers as well as those who are interested in capital market based research of an emerging market. It is found that the Malaysian stock market is not semi strongly efficient since there exists a persistent non-zero abnormal return. This finding is not consistent with the hypothesis that security returns adjust rapidly to reflect new information. It may be possible that the result is influenced by the sample, consisting mainly of below average size companies which tend to be thinly traded. Nevertheless, these issues have been addressed. Another important issue which has emerged from the study is that there is some evidence to suggest that insider trading activity existed in this market. In addition to these findings, when the rights issue announcements' effect is compared to the implications of corporate finance theories in predicting the sign of abnormal returns, the signalling model, asymmetric information model, perfect substitution hypothesis and Scholes' information hypothesis cannot be supported.