Multi-sample analysis of moment-structures: Asymptotic validity of inferences based on second-order moments

In moment structure analysis with nonnormal data, asymptotic valid inferences require the computation of a consistent (under general distributional assumptions) estimate of the matrix $\Gamma$ of asymptotic variances of sample second--order moments. Such a consistent estimate involves the fourth--order sample moments of the data. In practice, the use of fourth--order moments leads to computational burden and lack of robustness against small samples. In this paper we show that, under certain assumptions, correct asymptotic inferences can be attained when $\Gamma$ is replaced by a matrix $\Omega$ that involves only the second--order moments of the data. The present paper extends to the context of multi--sample analysis of second--order moment structures, results derived in the context of (simple--sample) covariance structure analysis (Satorra and Bentler, 1990). The results apply to a variety of estimation methods and general type of statistics. An example involving a test of equality of means under covariance restrictions illustrates theoretical aspects of the paper.

Estimating learning models from experimental data

We study the statistical properties of three estimation methods for a model of learning that is often fitted to experimental data: quadratic deviation measures without unobserved heterogeneity, and maximum likelihood withand without unobserved heterogeneity. After discussing identification issues, we show that the estimators are consistent and provide their asymptotic distribution. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we show that ignoring unobserved heterogeneity can lead to seriously biased estimations in samples which have the typical length of actual experiments. Better small sample properties areobtained if unobserved heterogeneity is introduced. That is, rather than estimating the parameters for each individual, the individual parameters are considered random variables, and the distribution of those random variables is estimated.

Comment to "Weak instruments robust tests in GMM and the New Keynesian Phillips curve" by Frank Kleibergen and Sophocles Mavroeidis

I discuss the identifiability of a structural New Keynesian Phillips curve when it is embedded in a small scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Identification problems emerge because not all the structural parameters are recoverable from the semi-structural ones and because the objective functions I consider are poorly behaved. The solution and the moment mappings are responsible for the problems.

Country effects in ISSP-1993 environmental data: Comparison of SEM approaches

Structural equation models (SEM) are commonly used to analyze the relationship between variables some of which may be latent, such as individual ``attitude'' to and ``behavior'' concerning specific issues. A number of difficulties arise when we want to compare a large number of groups, each with large sample size, and the manifest variables are distinctly non-normally distributed. Using an specific data set, we evaluate the appropriateness of the following alternative SEM approaches: multiple group versus MIMIC models, continuous versus ordinal variables estimation methods, and normal theory versus non-normal estimation methods. The approaches are applied to the ISSP-1993 Environmental data set, with the purpose of exploring variation in the mean level of variables of ``attitude'' to and ``behavior''concerning environmental issues and their mutual relationship across countries. Issues of both theoretical and practical relevance arise in the course of this application.

Fixed and random effects in Classical and Bayesian regression

This paper proposes a common and tractable framework for analyzingdifferent definitions of fixed and random effects in a contant-slopevariable-intercept model. It is shown that, regardless of whethereffects (i) are treated as parameters or as an error term, (ii) areestimated in different stages of a hierarchical model, or whether (iii)correlation between effects and regressors is allowed, when the sameinformation on effects is introduced into all estimation methods, theresulting slope estimator is also the same across methods. If differentmethods produce different results, it is ultimately because differentinformation is being used for each methods.

Todennäköisyyspohjaisen paloanalyysimenetelmän kehittäminen ydinvoimalaitoksella

Diplomityössä on tutustuttu ydinvoimalaitosten paloriskejä käsittelevään todennäköisyyspohjaiseen turvallisuusanalyysiin. Tavoitteena on ollut Olkiluoto 1 ja 2 laitosyksiköiden paloanalyysimenetelmän kehittäminen. Työssä esitetään paloanalyysin pääpiirteet, kaksi erilaista palotaajuuksien estimointimenetelmää sekä palojen leviämisen arviointimenetelmiä. Palotaajuuksien estimointimenetelmistä keskitytään Berryn menetelmän sekä NUREG/CR-6850-palotaajuuslaskentamenetelmän tarkasteluun. Palon leviämisen arvioinnissa on esitetty kolmen erilaisen virtausteknisen laskentatyökalun perusteet sekä palon leviämistodennäköisyyksiä arvioivan Probabilistic Fire Simulator (PFS) -ohjelman käyttöä. Työn aikana on laskettu molemmilla palotaajuuden estimointimenetelmillä palotaajuuksia eri tyyppisille huonetiloille. Berryn menetelmän palotaajuudet olivat pääosin alhaisempia kuin NUREG/CR-6850-menetelmällä lasketut palotaajuudet. Palon leviämistarkastelussa on tutkittu ydinvoimalaitoksen relehuoneen tulipaloa. PFS:n avulla laskettujen leviämistodennäköisyyksien arvoja on vertailtu TVO:n paloanalyysissa käytettyihin kvalitatiivisiin peittokertoimiin. Palon leviämistodennäköisyys eri osajärjestelmien välillä todettiin suuresti riippuvan analyysissaoletetuista vaurioitumislämpötiloista. Tutkittuja menetelmiä hyödyntäen diplomityössä kehitettiin paloanalyysimenetelmäkuvaus. Menetelmäkuvauksessa huonetilojen paloriskit kartoitetaan aluksi Berryn menetelmällä. Näin kaikille laitoksen huonetiloille saadaan arvioitua palotaajuus sekä paloalkutapahtumaluokkien sydänvauriotaajuus. Seuraavaksi suoritetaan valintamenettely, jossa valitut kriteerit täyttäville huonetiloille tehdään tarkentava palotaajuuslaskenta. Tarkentava palotaajuuslaskenta perustuu NUREG/CR-6850-menetelmän mukaisesti huonetilojen realistisiin syttymislähteisiin. Kriittisimpien huonetilojen osalta palon leviämisen arviointiin on tarkoitus hyödyntää numeerista simulointia.

Direct torque control of permanent magnet synchronous machines - analysis and implementation

Thedirect torque control (DTC) has become an accepted vector control method besidethe current vector control. The DTC was first applied to asynchronous machines,and has later been applied also to synchronous machines. This thesis analyses the application of the DTC to permanent magnet synchronous machines (PMSM). In order to take the full advantage of the DTC, the PMSM has to be properly dimensioned. Therefore the effect of the motor parameters is analysed taking the control principle into account. Based on the analysis, a parameter selection procedure is presented. The analysis and the selection procedure utilize nonlinear optimization methods. The key element of a direct torque controlled drive is the estimation of the stator flux linkage. Different estimation methods - a combination of current and voltage models and improved integration methods - are analysed. The effect of an incorrect measured rotor angle in the current model is analysed andan error detection and compensation method is presented. The dynamic performance of an earlier presented sensorless flux estimation method is made better by improving the dynamic performance of the low-pass filter used and by adapting the correction of the flux linkage to torque changes. A method for the estimation ofthe initial angle of the rotor is presented. The method is based on measuring the inductance of the machine in several directions and fitting the measurements into a model. The model is nonlinear with respect to the rotor angle and therefore a nonlinear least squares optimization method is needed in the procedure. A commonly used current vector control scheme is the minimum current control. In the DTC the stator flux linkage reference is usually kept constant. Achieving the minimum current requires the control of the reference. An on-line method to perform the minimization of the current by controlling the stator flux linkage reference is presented. Also, the control of the reference above the base speed is considered. A new estimation flux linkage is introduced for the estimation of the parameters of the machine model. In order to utilize the flux linkage estimates in off-line parameter estimation, the integration methods are improved. An adaptive correction is used in the same way as in the estimation of the controller stator flux linkage. The presented parameter estimation methods are then used in aself-commissioning scheme. The proposed methods are tested with a laboratory drive, which consists of a commercial inverter hardware with a modified software and several prototype PMSMs.

Pumppukäyttöjen energiankulutuksen määrittäminen prosessimittauksia käyttäen

Pumppukäytöt vastaavat noin neljännestä Euroopan alueen sähkömoottoreissa kuluvasta energiasta. Energian hinnan nousun vuoksi energian säästäminen ja energiatehokkuus ovat nousseet tärkeään asemaan paljon energiaa kuluttavassa teollisuudessa. Pumppukäyttöjen hyötysuhteen parantaminen on noussut olennaiseen osaan paperi- ja kartonkiteollisuuden energiatehokkuustarkasteluissa. Tässä työssä tarkastellaan kartonkikoneen pumppukäyttöjen toiminnan energiatehokkuutta moottorin virtamittausten perusteella. Analyysi perustuu moottorin akselitehon määrittämiseen ja sen perusteella tehtävään pumpun toimintapisteen laskentaan. Työssä esitellään käytetyt estimointimenetelmät ja niillä saadut tulokset kartonkikoneen pumppukäytöille. Lisäksi työssä arvioidaan kolmen yksittäisen pumppukäytön energiankulutuksen säästöpotentiaalia. Työssä käytettyä menetelmää voidaan käyttää sekä vakio- että vaihtonopeuspumppukäyttöjen toiminnan ja hyötysuhteen analysointiin.

Porvoon jalostamon haihtuvien orgaanisten yhdisteiden päästömääritysmenetelmät

Työssä käytiin läpi Porvoon jalostamon haihtuvien orgaanisten yhdisteiden päästömääritysmenetelmiä ja arvioitiin nykyisin käytössä olevien sekä uusien menetelmien soveltuvuutta Porvoon jalostamon päästömääritykseen. Nykyisten menetelmien arviointia tehtiin käymällä läpi eri alueiden 2000-luvun päästömäärät sekä vertaamalla päästömääriä muiden jalostamojen vastaaviin päästömääriin. Haihtuvista orgaanisista yhdisteistä puhuttaessa jätetään yleisesti metaani määritelmän ulkopuolelle ja käytetään termiä NMVOC-yhdisteet. Työssä laskettiin arvio Porvoon jalostamon metaanin päästömäärälle ja arvioitiin sen vaikutusta NMVOC-kokonaispäästömäärään. Metaanin kokonaispäästömäärien havaittiin olevan noin kymmenen kertaa haihtuvien orgaanisten yhdisteiden päästömääriä pienempiä, ja näin ollen niiden lisäämisellä NMVOC-päästöihin ei ole juuri vaikutusta. Myös menetelmien investointi- ja käyttökustannuksia, sekä pidemmän aikavälin kustannuksia arvioitiin. Kustannuksiltaan tällä hetkellä Porvoon jalostamolla käytössä olevat menetelmät ovat kustannustehokkaita. Uusista menetelmistä DIAL, SOF ja OGI ovat kustannuksiltaan huomattavasti kalliimpia, myös pitkän aikavälin vertailulla. Nykyisten menetelmien vuosittaiset kustannukset aiheutuvat mittausten vaatimista henkilötyötunneista. Uusista menetelmistä SOF ja DIAL vaativat ulkopuolisten mittaajien käyttämistä. Massavirran määrityksen suhteen vielä kehitysvaiheessa olevalla OGI-kameralla mitatessa voidaan käyttää mittaajina omaa henkilökuntaa. Toisin kuin DIAL- ja SOF-menetelmien laitteistot, OGI-kamera ostetaan omaksi ja näin ollen sitä voidaan käyttää tarpeen vaatiessa vuoden ympäri esimerkiksi suurien vuotajien paikallistamiseen ja LDAR-kiristysohjelman tukena. Tarkastelun perusteella olisi suositeltavaa tarkastaa nykyisin käytettävistä laskentamenetelmistä erityisesti prosessi- ja säiliöalueen sekä jätevesijärjestelmä päästömäärät käyttäen tarkempia DIAL-, SOF- tai myöhemmin OGI-menetelmiä ja muokata laskentamenetelmiä vastamaan näillä määritettyjä päästömääriä.

Monitoring of centrifugal pump operation by a frequency converter

Centrifugal pumps are widely used in industrial and municipal applications, and they are an important end-use application of electric energy. However, in many cases centrifugal pumps operate with a significantly lower energy efficiency than they actually could, which typically has an increasing effect on the pump energy consumption and the resulting energy costs. Typical reasons for this are the incorrect dimensioning of the pumping system components and inefficiency of the applied pump control method. Besides the increase in energy costs, an inefficient operation may increase the risk of a pump failure and thereby the maintenance costs. In the worst case, a pump failure may lead to a process shutdown accruing additional costs. Nowadays, centrifugal pumps are often controlled by adjusting their rotational speed, which affects the resulting flow rate and output pressure of the pumped fluid. Typically, the speed control is realised with a frequency converter that allows the control of the rotational speed of an induction motor. Since a frequency converter can estimate the motor rotational speed and shaft torque without external measurement sensors on the motor shaft, it also allows the development and use of sensorless methods for the estimation of the pump operation. Still today, the monitoring of pump operation is based on additional measurements and visual check-ups, which may not be applicable to determine the energy efficiency of the pump operation. This doctoral thesis concentrates on the methods that allow the use of a frequency converter as a monitoring and analysis device for a centrifugal pump. Firstly, the determination of energy-efficiency- and reliability-based limits for the recommendable operating region of a variable-speed-driven centrifugal pump is discussed with a case study for the laboratory pumping system. Then, three model-based estimation methods for the pump operating location are studied, and their accuracy is determined by laboratory tests. In addition, a novel method to detect the occurrence of cavitation or flow recirculation in a centrifugal pump by a frequency converter is introduced. Its sensitivity compared with known cavitation detection methods is evaluated, and its applicability is verified by laboratory measurements for three different pumps and by using two different frequency converters. The main focus of this thesis is on the radial flow end-suction centrifugal pumps, but the studied methods can also be feasible with mixed and axial flow centrifugal pumps, if allowed by their characteristics.

Real-time Image-based RGB-D Camera Motion Tracking and Environment Mapping

In this work, image based estimation methods, also known as direct methods, are studied which avoid feature extraction and matching completely. Cost functions use raw pixels as measurements and the goal is to produce precise 3D pose and structure estimates. The cost functions presented minimize the sensor error, because measurements are not transformed or modified. In photometric camera pose estimation, 3D rotation and translation parameters are estimated by minimizing a sequence of image based cost functions, which are non-linear due to perspective projection and lens distortion. In image based structure refinement, on the other hand, 3D structure is refined using a number of additional views and an image based cost metric. Image based estimation methods are particularly useful in conditions where the Lambertian assumption holds, and the 3D points have constant color despite viewing angle. The goal is to improve image based estimation methods, and to produce computationally efficient methods which can be accomodated into real-time applications. The developed image-based 3D pose and structure estimation methods are finally demonstrated in practise in indoor 3D reconstruction use, and in a live augmented reality application.

Parameter identification in time series models

Time series analysis can be categorized into three different approaches: classical, Box-Jenkins, and State space. Classical approach makes a basement for the analysis and Box-Jenkins approach is an improvement of the classical approach and deals with stationary time series. State space approach allows time variant factors and covers up a broader area of time series analysis. This thesis focuses on parameter identifiablity of different parameter estimation methods such as LSQ, Yule-Walker, MLE which are used in the above time series analysis approaches. Also the Kalman filter method and smoothing techniques are integrated with the state space approach and MLE method to estimate parameters allowing them to change over time. Parameter estimation is carried out by repeating estimation and integrating with MCMC and inspect how well different estimation methods can identify the optimal model parameters. Identification is performed in probabilistic and general senses and compare the results in order to study and represent identifiability more informative way.

An Update on Inter-Country Differences in Recovery and Utilization of Recycled Paper

The use of recovered paper as raw material in the paper and board industry has increased heavily during recent decades. At the same time, growing environmental awareness has raised the interest in recycling and a more sustainable way of living, at least in high-income countries. This paper combines these topics and explores how economic, demographic and environmental factors have affected the recovery and utilization of recycled paper between 1992 and 2010 in a sample of 70 countries. This study updates and extends the previous research on the topic using panel data and panel data estimation methods. The results confirm the roles of economic determinants but also indicate that concern for the environment impacts the recovery of recycled paper particularly in high-income countries. Moreover, the motives for recycling appear to depend on the income level of a country, which is something that future policies should consider.

Foreign Direct Investment, Clean Development Mechanism, and Environmental Management: A case of Sub-Saharan Africa

This doctoral dissertation explores the contribution of environmental management practices, the so-called clean development mechanism (CDM) projects, and foreign direct investment (FDI) in achieving sustainable development in developing countries, particularly in Sub- Saharan Africa. Because the climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions is one of the most serious global environmental challenges, the main focus is on the causal links between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, energy consumption, and economic development in Sub-Saharan Africa. In addition, the dissertation investigates the factors that have affected the distribution of CDM projects in developing countries and the relationships between FDI and other macroeconomic variables of interest. The main contribution of the dissertation is empirical. One of the publications uses crosssectional data and Tobit and Poisson regressions. Three of the studies use time-series data and vector autoregressive and vector error correction models, while two publications use panel data and panel data estimation methods. One of the publications uses thus both timeseries and panel data. The concept of Granger causality is utilized in four of the publications. The results indicate that there are significant differences in the Granger causality relationships between CO2 emissions, energy consumption, economic growth, and FDI in different countries. It appears also that the causality relationships change over time. Furthermore, the results support the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis but only for some of the countries. As to CDM activities, past emission levels, institutional quality, and the size of the host country appear to be among the significant determinants of the distribution of CDM projects. FDI and exports are also found to be significant determinants of economic growth.

Use of airborne laser scanner data in demanding forest conditions

Most of the applications of airborne laser scanner data to forestry require that the point cloud be normalized, i.e., each point represents height from the ground instead of elevation. To normalize the point cloud, a digital terrain model (DTM), which is derived from the ground returns in the point cloud, is employed. Unfortunately, extracting accurate DTMs from airborne laser scanner data is a challenging task, especially in tropical forests where the canopy is normally very thick (partially closed), leading to a situation in which only a limited number of laser pulses reach the ground. Therefore, robust algorithms for extracting accurate DTMs in low-ground-point-densitysituations are needed in order to realize the full potential of airborne laser scanner data to forestry. The objective of this thesis is to develop algorithms for processing airborne laser scanner data in order to: (1) extract DTMs in demanding forest conditions (complex terrain and low number of ground points) for applications in forestry; (2) estimate canopy base height (CBH) for forest fire behavior modeling; and (3) assess the robustness of LiDAR-based high-resolution biomass estimation models against different field plot designs. Here, the aim is to find out if field plot data gathered by professional foresters can be combined with field plot data gathered by professionally trained community foresters and used in LiDAR-based high-resolution biomass estimation modeling without affecting prediction performance. The question of interest in this case is whether or not the local forest communities can achieve the level technical proficiency required for accurate forest monitoring. The algorithms for extracting DTMs from LiDAR point clouds presented in this thesis address the challenges of extracting DTMs in low-ground-point situations and in complex terrain while the algorithm for CBH estimation addresses the challenge of variations in the distribution of points in the LiDAR point cloud caused by things like variations in tree species and season of data acquisition. These algorithms are adaptive (with respect to point cloud characteristics) and exhibit a high degree of tolerance to variations in the density and distribution of points in the LiDAR point cloud. Results of comparison with existing DTM extraction algorithms showed that DTM extraction algorithms proposed in this thesis performed better with respect to accuracy of estimating tree heights from airborne laser scanner data. On the other hand, the proposed DTM extraction algorithms, being mostly based on trend surface interpolation, can not retain small artifacts in the terrain (e.g., bumps, small hills and depressions). Therefore, the DTMs generated by these algorithms are only suitable for forestry applications where the primary objective is to estimate tree heights from normalized airborne laser scanner data. On the other hand, the algorithm for estimating CBH proposed in this thesis is based on the idea of moving voxel in which gaps (openings in the canopy) which act as fuel breaks are located and their height is estimated. Test results showed a slight improvement in CBH estimation accuracy over existing CBH estimation methods which are based on height percentiles in the airborne laser scanner data. However, being based on the idea of moving voxel, this algorithm has one main advantage over existing CBH estimation methods in the context of forest fire modeling: it has great potential in providing information about vertical fuel continuity. This information can be used to create vertical fuel continuity maps which can provide more realistic information on the risk of crown fires compared to CBH.