A methodology for the adaptation of a PMP at the determination of a PMF

This paper presents a new type of very fine grid hydrological model based on the spatiotemporal repartition of a PMP (Probable Maximum Precipitation) and on the topography. The goal is to estimate the influence of this rain on a PMF (Probable Maximum Flood) on a catchment area in Switzerland. The spatiotemporal distribution of the PMP was realized using six clouds modeled by the advection-diffusion equation. The equation shows the movement of the clouds over the terrain and also gives the evolution of the rain intensity in time. This hydrological modeling is followed by a hydraulic modeling of the surface and subterranean flow, done considering the factors that contribute to the hydrological cycle, such as the infiltration, the resurgence and the snowmelt. These added factors make the developed model closer to reality and also offer flexibility in the initial condition that is added to the factors concerning the PMP, such as the duration of the rain, the speed and direction of the wind. All these initial conditions taken together offer a complete image of the PMF.

Characterization of gravitational rock slope deformations at different spatial scales based on field, remote sensing and numerical approaches

Rock slope instabilities such as rock slides, rock avalanche or deep-seated gravitational slope deformations are widespread in Alpine valleys. These phenomena represent at the same time a main factor that control the mountain belts erosion and also a significant natural hazard that creates important losses to the mountain communities. However, the potential geometrical and dynamic connections linking outcrop and slope-scale instabilities are often unknown. A more detailed definition of the potential links will be essential to improve the comprehension of the destabilization processes and to dispose of a more complete hazard characterization of the rock instabilities at different spatial scales. In order to propose an integrated approach in the study of the rock slope instabilities, three main themes were analysed in this PhD thesis: (1) the inventory and the spatial distribution of rock slope deformations at regional scale and their influence on the landscape evolution, (2) the influence of brittle and ductile tectonic structures on rock slope instabilities development and (3) the characterization of hazard posed by potential rock slope instabilities through the development of conceptual instability models. To prose and integrated approach for the analyses of these topics, several techniques were adopted. In particular, high resolution digital elevation models revealed to be fundamental tools that were employed during the different stages of the rock slope instability assessment. A special attention was spent in the application of digital elevation model for detailed geometrical modelling of past and potential instabilities and for the rock slope monitoring at different spatial scales. Detailed field analyses and numerical models were performed to complete and verify the remote sensing approach. In the first part of this thesis, large slope instabilities in Rhone valley (Switzerland) were mapped in order to dispose of a first overview of tectonic and climatic factors influencing their distribution and their characteristics. Our analyses demonstrate the key influence of neotectonic activity and the glacial conditioning on the spatial distribution of the rock slope deformations. Besides, the volumes of rock instabilities identified along the main Rhone valley, were then used to propose the first estimate of the postglacial denudation and filling of the Rhone valley associated to large gravitational movements. In the second part of the thesis, detailed structural analyses of the Frank slide and the Sierre rock avalanche were performed to characterize the influence of brittle and ductile tectonic structures on the geometry and on the failure mechanism of large instabilities. Our observations indicated that the geometric characteristics and the variation of the rock mass quality associated to ductile tectonic structures, that are often ignored landslide study, represent important factors that can drastically influence the extension and the failure mechanism of rock slope instabilities. In the last part of the thesis, the failure mechanisms and the hazard associated to five potential instabilities were analysed in detail. These case studies clearly highlighted the importance to incorporate different analyses and monitoring techniques to dispose of reliable and hazard scenarios. This information associated to the development of a conceptual instability model represents the primary data for an integrated risk management of rock slope instabilities. - Les mouvements de versant tels que les chutes de blocs, les éboulements ou encore les phénomènes plus lents comme les déformations gravitaires profondes de versant représentent des manifestations courantes en régions montagneuses. Les mouvements de versant sont à la fois un des facteurs principaux contrôlant la destruction progressive des chaines orogéniques mais aussi un danger naturel concret qui peut provoquer des dommages importants. Pourtant, les phénomènes gravitaires sont rarement analysés dans leur globalité et les rapports géométriques et mécaniques qui lient les instabilités à l'échelle du versant aux instabilités locales restent encore mal définis. Une meilleure caractérisation de ces liens pourrait pourtant représenter un apport substantiel dans la compréhension des processus de déstabilisation des versants et améliorer la caractérisation des dangers gravitaires à toutes les échelles spatiales. Dans le but de proposer un approche plus globale à la problématique des mouvements gravitaires, ce travail de thèse propose trois axes de recherche principaux: (1) l'inventaire et l'analyse de la distribution spatiale des grandes instabilités rocheuses à l'échelle régionale, (2) l'analyse des structures tectoniques cassantes et ductiles en relation avec les mécanismes de rupture des grandes instabilités rocheuses et (3) la caractérisation des aléas rocheux par une approche multidisciplinaire visant à développer un modèle conceptuel de l'instabilité et une meilleure appréciation du danger . Pour analyser les différentes problématiques traitées dans cette thèse, différentes techniques ont été utilisées. En particulier, le modèle numérique de terrain s'est révélé être un outil indispensable pour la majorité des analyses effectuées, en partant de l'identification de l'instabilité jusqu'au suivi des mouvements. Les analyses de terrain et des modélisations numériques ont ensuite permis de compléter les informations issues du modèle numérique de terrain. Dans la première partie de cette thèse, les mouvements gravitaires rocheux dans la vallée du Rhône (Suisse) ont été cartographiés pour étudier leur répartition en fonction des variables géologiques et morphologiques régionales. En particulier, les analyses ont mis en évidence l'influence de l'activité néotectonique et des phases glaciaires sur la distribution des zones à forte densité d'instabilités rocheuses. Les volumes des instabilités rocheuses identifiées le long de la vallée principale ont été ensuite utilisés pour estimer le taux de dénudations postglaciaire et le remplissage de la vallée du Rhône lié aux grands mouvements gravitaires. Dans la deuxième partie, l'étude de l'agencement structural des avalanches rocheuses de Sierre (Suisse) et de Frank (Canada) a permis de mieux caractériser l'influence passive des structures tectoniques sur la géométrie des instabilités. En particulier, les structures issues d'une tectonique ductile, souvent ignorées dans l'étude des instabilités gravitaires, ont été identifiées comme des structures très importantes qui contrôlent les mécanismes de rupture des instabilités à différentes échelles. Dans la dernière partie de la thèse, cinq instabilités rocheuses différentes ont été étudiées par une approche multidisciplinaire visant à mieux caractériser l'aléa et à développer un modèle conceptuel trois dimensionnel de ces instabilités. A l'aide de ces analyses on a pu mettre en évidence la nécessité d'incorporer différentes techniques d'analyses et de surveillance pour une gestion plus objective du risque associée aux grandes instabilités rocheuses.

Geochemistry of the thermal springs and fumaroles of Basse-Terre Island, Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles

The purpose of this work was to study jointly the volcanic-hydrothermal system of the high-risk volcano La Soufriere, in the southern part of Basse-Terre, and the geothermal area of Bouillante, on its western coast, to derive an all-embracing and coherent conceptual geochemical model that provides the necessary basis for adequate volcanic surveillance and further geothermal exploration. The active andesitic dome of La Soufriere has erupted eight times since 1660, most recently in 1976-1977. All these historic eruptions have been phreatic. High-salinity, Na-CI geothermal liquids circulate in the Bouillante geothermal reservoir, at temperatures close to 250 degrees C. These Na-CI solutions rise toward the surface, undergo boiling and mixing with groundwater and/or seawater, and feed most Na-CI thermal springs in the central Bouillante area. The Na-Cl thermal springs are surrounded by Na-HCO3 thermal springs and by the Na-Cl thermal spring of Anse a la Barque (a groundwater slightly mixed with seawater), which are all heated through conductive transfer. The two main fumarolic fields of La Soufriere area discharge vapors formed through boiling of hydrothermal aqueous solutions at temperatures of 190-215 degrees C below the ``Ty'' fault area and close to 260 degrees C below the dome summit. The boiling liquid producing the vapors of the Ty fault area has SD and delta(18)O values relatively similar to those of the Na-CI liquids of the Bouillante geothermal reservoir, whereas the liquid originating the vapors of the summit fumaroles is strongly enriched in O-18, due to input of magmatic fluids from below. This process is also responsible for the paucity of CH;I in the fumaroles. The thermal features around La Soufriere dome include: (a) Ca-SO4 springs, produced through absorption of hydrothermal vapors in shallow groundwaters; (b) conductively heated, Ca-Na-HCO3 springs; and (c) two Ca-Na-Cl springs produced through mixing of shallow Ca-SO4 waters and deep Na-Cl hydrothermal liquids. The geographical distribution of the different thermal features of La Soufriere area indicates the presence of: (a) a central zone dominated by the ascent of steam, which either discharges at the surface in the fumarolic fields or is absorbed in shallow groundwaters; and (b) an outer zone, where the shallow groundwaters are heated through conduction or addition of Na-Cl liquids coming from hydrothermal aquifer(s).

Anàlisi de les idees prèvies d’alumnes d’educació primària sobre astronomia

Els coneixements previs són el punt de partida per a construir un coneixement de forma significativa. Cal analitzar-los i tenir consciència dels models mentals dels infants per a poder fer un canvi conceptual que ens porti del coneixement intuïtiu al coneixement científic. És per això que aquesta investigació fa un anàlisi d’aquests coneixements en el contingut d’astronomia. El mètode de recollir les dades és fa a través d’una entrevista a 10 nens i nenes de 6 a 7 anys d’una escola pública de Sabadell. Les dades interpretades es representen en taules i gràfics. Els resultats ens demostren que l’experiència pròpia fa que els infants construeixin els seus propis models mentals.

Muutos- ja oppimisprosessin johtaminen teollisuusyrityksessä

Kilpailukeinojen muuttuessa teollisuusyritysten muutostarve nopeutuu. Tämä aiheuttaa yritysten henkilökunnalle uusia haasteita ja lisää paineita elinikäiseen oppimiseen. Samalla se aiheuttaa koko yrityksen organisaatiolle yhteisen oppimisen tarpeen eli muuttumisen oppivaksi organisaatioksi. työssä on tutkittu oppivan organisaation käsitettä, valmiuksia muutosjohtamiseen sekä tarvittavaa asennetta muutosten tehokkaaseen läpivientiin. Muutoksen johtamiseen on esitetty muutosmallia, jonka sovellettavuutta on arvioitu case-yrityksen avulla. Muutosasenteen lisäksi on kiinnitetty huomiota mittaamiseen ja muutosten jatkumiseen päättymättöminä prosesseina. Työn tulokseksi saatiin mm. seuraavia toimenpide-ehdotuksia: Koulutusta tulisi lisätä ylimmälle johdole ja mielipidevaikuttajille. Organisaatiota pitäisi muuttaa tiedonkulkua suosivaksi ja saattaa tietojärjestelmät joustaviksi ja muutoksia tukeviksi järjestelmmiksi.

Effectiveness of a primary care-based intervention to reduce sitting time in overweight and obese patients (SEDESTACTIV): a randomized controlled trial; rationale and study design

Background: There is growing evidence suggesting that prolonged sitting has negative effects on people's weight, chronic diseases and mortality. Interventions to reduce sedentary time can be an effective strategy to increase daily energy expenditure. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of a six-month primary care intervention to reduce daily of sitting time in overweight and mild obese sedentary patients. Method/Design: The study is a randomized controlled trial (RCT). Professionals from thirteen primary health care centers (PHC) will randomly invite to participate mild obese or overweight patients of both gender, aged between 25 and 65 years old, who spend 6 hours at least daily sitting. A total of 232 subjects will be randomly allocated to an intervention (IG) and control group (CG) (116 individuals each group). In addition, 50 subjects with fibromyalgia will be included. Primary outcome is: (1) sitting time using the activPAL device and the Marshall questionnaire. The following parameters will be also assessed: (2) sitting time in work place (Occupational Sitting and Physical Activity Questionnaire), (3) health-related quality of life (EQ-5D), (4) evolution of stage of change (Prochaska and DiClemente's Stages of Change Model), (5) physical inactivity (catalan version of Brief Physical Activity Assessment Tool), (6) number of steps walked (pedometer and activPAL), (7) control based on analysis (triglycerides, total cholesterol, HDL, LDL, glycemia and, glycated haemoglobin in diabetic patients) and (8) blood pressure and anthropometric variables. All parameters will be assessed pre and post intervention and there will be a follow up three, six and twelve months after the intervention. A descriptive analysis of all variables and a multivariate analysis to assess differences among groups will be undertaken. Multivariate analysis will be carried out to assess time changes of dependent variables. All the analysis will be done under the intention to treat principle. Discussion: If the SEDESTACTIV intervention shows its effectiveness in reducing sitting time, health professionals would have a low-cost intervention tool for sedentary overweight and obese patients management.

The long run impact of mergers and acquisitions on performance – empirical study in the pulp and paper industry

Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) have played very important role in restructuring the pulp and paper industry (PPI). The poor performance and fragmented nature of the industry, overcapacity problems, and globalisation have driven companies to consolidate. The objective of this thesis was to examine how PPI acquirers’ have performed subsequent M&As and whether the deal characteristics have had any impact on performance. Based on the results it seems that PPI companies have not been able to enhance their performance in the long run after M&As although the per-formance of acquiring firms has remained above the industry median, and deal characteristics or the amount of premiums paid do not seem to have had any effect. The statistical significance of the results was tested with change model and regression analysis. Performance was assessed with accrual, cash flow, and market based indicators. Results are congruent with behavioural theory: managers and investors seem to be overoptimistic in determining the synergies from M&As.

Organisaatiomuutoksen vaikutukset paperitehtaan tuotannon esimiestyöhön, case: UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Kaukas

The main target of this research was to define effects of the organizational change on leaders' work in a paper mill's production. It also focuses on producing knowledge of how the change process succeeded in its context. The theoretical part of this study emphasizes the organizational change as a phenomenon, introduces different change models, and reviews leadership in the change and also employees' engagement to the change. From the middle-managers' point of view it was essential to study, how the change process had been implemented. The empirical part of this study is comprised of the interviews of 14 middle-managers in the production of UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Kaukas Paper Mill. The interview data was gathered up and analyzed by the qualitative research method. The research findings underline that the change increases the middle-managers' responsibility for their subordinates welfare at work and work motivation, likewise responsibility for their safety at work. The employees also need more guidance and supervision in order to keep up with their work. The manager is in a key position when engaging the employees to the change. The research results do not offer only one detailed answer to choose a certain change model. As a multiform and complex process, change always requires some situational evaluation.

Implications, large and small, from chemical education research for the teaching of chemistry

Research studies in chemical education pose a communication problem for chemists. Unlike the findings from other specializations in chemistry the findings in chemical education tend to be reported in education journals that are not readily accessible to most chemists or chemistry teachers. This lecture is an attempt to remedy this gap in communication. Research studies fall into three broad categories. (i) issues related to the content of chemistry itself, that is, What content to teach? And What meaning of each topic is to be conveyed? (ii) issues related to how chemical content is taught, such as, the role of lectures, practical work, particular pedagogies, etc. and (iii) issues related to its learning, that is, learning of concepts, conceptual change, motivation, etc. Findings in each of these categories of research over the last twenty years have drawn attention to opportunities for improving the quality of chemical education in each of the levels of formal education where chemistry is taught. Sometimes the research findings seem small since they, in fact, merely diagnose the actual problem in teaching and learning. At other times, the research findings are large because they provide a solution to these problems. What remains to be done is to disseminate the findings so that appropriate teaching occurs more widely, with its consequent gains in the quality of learning. Research findings, of these small and large types will be used to illustrate the potential of research to make the practice of chemical education more effective.

Muutosprosessin implementointi ja johtaminen terveydenhuollon välityspalveluissa

The aim of this study was to produce information on the implementation of the change process made according to the Kotter’s change model in HUSServis call operator services and to understand the success of the change process experienced by the call operators and the team leaders. The study was a qualitative case study. The research methods used were the researcher’s own participatory observation and the electronic survey. The survey was conducted by e-mail, using Webropol - software. The target group consisted of 32 persons, in which 29 were call operators and 3 were team leaders. The results of the study showed that the implementation of the change process made according to the Kotter’s change model was experienced successfully. The change was influenced by the successful selection of persons to the guiding coalition and an assertive leadership, in which the trust was enhanced in a research organization by increasing communication and feedback. This influence had a great positive change on the working environment. It also had a clear impact on the willingness of the personnel to be involved in change, which led to a clear improvement on the customer services.

Uuden liiketoiminnan kehittäminen: Näkökulmana alkuvaiheiden menestystekijät ja ideoiden hyödynnettävyys verkostoissa

Tavoitteena työssä oli tuottaa ja kerätä tietoa uuden liiketoiminnan kehittämistä tukevan toimintamallin suunnittelu- ja kehitystyötä varten. Tietoa kerättiin aikaisemmasta tutkimuksesta, kirjallisuudesta sekä empiirisistä lähteistä. Tutkimusta työssä tehtiin konstruktiivisen lähestymistapaa mukaillen. Empiirisen tiedon keräämis- ja tuottamistapoina käytettiin teemahaastattelua, verkkokyselyä ja työpajatyöskentelyä. Lisäksi työssä analysoitiin kaksi olemassa olevaa uuden liiketoiminnan kehittämisen toimintamallia. Teoriatarkastelu työssä keskityttiin innovaation alkupäähän, liiketoimintamalleihin, asiakasarvoihin, verkostoihin ja innovaation alkupään menestystekijöihin. Näiden pohjalta tuotettiin kehitelmä hyödynnettävyydestä sekä kuvaus uuden liiketoiminnan kehittämisen varhaisista vaiheista. Tätä kaikkea hyödyntäen koottiin suunnittelutiedon lisäksi jatkokehitystä tukeva konseptimainen toimintamalli. Tämän konseptimaisen vision tarkoituksena on toimia jatkossa suunnan näyttäjänä varsinaista toimintamallia rakennettaessa.

På spaning efter den goda läroboken : om pedagogiska texters lärande potential

By interpreting research results about textbooks this study tries to answer the question: how should texts be formulated to optimize the learning of the reading pupil? Seven perspectives structure the research: History. The amount of information available in a society influences the learning offered by textbooks. A compressed description indicates that memorizing activities have turned to tendencies for critical reading. Curriculum. The decentralization of curriculum development accentuates the importance of the textbook authors as interpreters of significant information. Because of the authority of textbooks, the way that information is presented can function as an unintended curriculum. Use. In the use of textbooks different functions can be identified. Thus the textbooks have, for instance, an authoritarian, a cohesive and a disciplinary function. Level of difficulty. A text that optimally matches the skills of the readers ina class should both provide facilitating scaffolds for the learning and at the same time challenge especially capable students by not being too obvious. Changing of preconceptions. The only possible starting point for teaching is the knowledge developed earlier by the student. In certain areas misconceptions are usual, which motivates the use of conceptual change texts that enhance the transformation of earlier obtained knowledge. Coherence. Well structured texts can usually be considered beneficial for learning. The same applies to the use of meta-discourse guiding the reader through the text. If the structuring is too obvious, the content may not, at least by capable students, be processed on a deep level. Content. The analysis underlines the need for deep approaches in textbooks. Though this is a relative statement, textbooks from a learning perspective seem to have been too superficial in their presentations. Ten principles were developed as a concluding interpretation of the good textbook. Though these principles capture important tendencies for developing a good textbook, textbook writing has to be considered as an art that cannot be captured in a short formula. The paradoxes identified indicate that the results should be seen as a starting point for further research.

Analysis of value drivers behind CRM adoption projects in financial services industry

This research is focused on deriving framework for the value thought for from the Customer Relationship Management system adopted by an enterprise operating in the financial services industry. It will analyze existing academic work to derive a conceptual value model, while applying secondary industry specific case studies provided by the CRM vendors to check the validity and commonality of these drivers. Furthermore this work locates the variances and correlation between value thought for from CRM system, scope of enterprise operations and size of the enterprise.

Nettobudjetoinnin implementointi kunnallisessa yksikössä - Case: Helsingin kaupungin liikuntavirasto

Julkisen sektorin organisaatioita on kritisoitu niiden tehottomuudesta palveluiden tuottajina ja kritiikki on lisännyt keskustelua julkisen ja yksityisen sektorin sopivasta suhteesta. Julkisen sektorin organisaatioissa tilanteeseen on herätty ja toiminnan tehostamiseen on alettu etsiä keinoja. New Public Management:in ja tulosjohtamisen ajatusmaailma ovat ottaneet jalansijaa julkisen sektorin johtamisessa ja samalla tuoneet mukanaan entistä tulospainotteisempaa ajattelutapaa. Helsingin kaupungin liikuntavirastolla siirryttiin bruttobudjetoinnista nettobudjetointiin vuoden 2013 alusta. Budjetointimenetelmän muutoksen taustalla vaikuttaa tavoite viraston toiminnan tehostamisesta. Tutkimus keskittyy selvittämään liikuntaviraston muutosprosessia ja uuden budjetointimenetelmän implementointia. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on luoda työkalu helpottamaan nettobudjetoinnin implementointia. Tutkimuksen empiirinen aineisto kerättiin puolistrukturoitujen haastattelujen avulla, jotka suoritettiin joulukuun 2012 ja huhtikuun 2013 välillä. Empiiriseen aineistoon ja muutosjohtamisen teoriaan nojaten tutkimuksessa onnistuttiin luomaan liikuntavirastolle muutosprosessin vaihemalli, joka sisältää toimenpide-ehdotuksia muutoksen ja uuden budjetointimenetelmän implementoinnin helpottamiseksi.