823 resultados para Graph-based approach
Resumo:
Starting with an overview on losses due to mountain hazards in the Russian Federation and the European Alps, the question is raised why a substantial number of events still are recorded—despite considerable efforts in hazard mitigation and risk reduction. The main reason for this paradox lies in a missing dynamic risk-based approach, and it is shown that these dynamics have different roots: firstly, neglecting climate change and systems dynamics, the development of hazard scenarios is based on the static approach of design events. Secondly, due to economic development and population dynamics, the elements at risk exposed are subject to spatial and temporal changes. These issues are discussed with respect to temporal and spatial demands. As a result, it is shown how risk is dynamic on a long-term and short-term scale, which has to be acknowledged in the risk concept if this concept is targeted at a sustainable development of mountain regions. A conceptual model is presented that can be used for dynamical risk assessment, and it is shown by different management strategies how this model may be converted into practice. Furthermore, the interconnectedness and interaction between hazard and risk are addressed in order to enhance prevention, the level of protection and the degree of preparedness.
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Radon plays an important role for human exposure to natural sources of ionizing radiation. The aim of this article is to compare two approaches to estimate mean radon exposure in the Swiss population: model-based predictions at individual level and measurement-based predictions based on measurements aggregated at municipality level. A nationwide model was used to predict radon levels in each household and for each individual based on the corresponding tectonic unit, building age, building type, soil texture, degree of urbanization, and floor. Measurement-based predictions were carried out within a health impact assessment on residential radon and lung cancer. Mean measured radon levels were corrected for the average floor distribution and weighted with population size of each municipality. Model-based predictions yielded a mean radon exposure of the Swiss population of 84.1 Bq/m(3) . Measurement-based predictions yielded an average exposure of 78 Bq/m(3) . This study demonstrates that the model- and the measurement-based predictions provided similar results. The advantage of the measurement-based approach is its simplicity, which is sufficient for assessing exposure distribution in a population. The model-based approach allows predicting radon levels at specific sites, which is needed in an epidemiological study, and the results do not depend on how the measurement sites have been selected.
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Let us consider a large set of candidate parameter fields, such as hydraulic conductivity maps, on which we can run an accurate forward flow and transport simulation. We address the issue of rapidly identifying a subset of candidates whose response best match a reference response curve. In order to keep the number of calls to the accurate flow simulator computationally tractable, a recent distance-based approach relying on fast proxy simulations is revisited, and turned into a non-stationary kriging method where the covariance kernel is obtained by combining a classical kernel with the proxy. Once the accurate simulator has been run for an initial subset of parameter fields and a kriging metamodel has been inferred, the predictive distributions of misfits for the remaining parameter fields can be used as a guide to select candidate parameter fields in a sequential way. The proposed algorithm, Proxy-based Kriging for Sequential Inversion (ProKSI), relies on a variant of the Expected Improvement, a popular criterion for kriging-based global optimization. A statistical benchmark of ProKSI’s performances illustrates the efficiency and the robustness of the approach when using different kinds of proxies.
Volcanic forcing for climate modeling: a new microphysics-based data set covering years 1600–present
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As the understanding and representation of the impacts of volcanic eruptions on climate have improved in the last decades, uncertainties in the stratospheric aerosol forcing from large eruptions are now linked not only to visible optical depth estimates on a global scale but also to details on the size, latitude and altitude distributions of the stratospheric aerosols. Based on our understanding of these uncertainties, we propose a new model-based approach to generating a volcanic forcing for general circulation model (GCM) and chemistry–climate model (CCM) simulations. This new volcanic forcing, covering the 1600–present period, uses an aerosol microphysical model to provide a realistic, physically consistent treatment of the stratospheric sulfate aerosols. Twenty-six eruptions were modeled individually using the latest available ice cores aerosol mass estimates and historical data on the latitude and date of eruptions. The evolution of aerosol spatial and size distribution after the sulfur dioxide discharge are hence characterized for each volcanic eruption. Large variations are seen in hemispheric partitioning and size distributions in relation to location/date of eruptions and injected SO2 masses. Results for recent eruptions show reasonable agreement with observations. By providing these new estimates of spatial distributions of shortwave and long-wave radiative perturbations, this volcanic forcing may help to better constrain the climate model responses to volcanic eruptions in the 1600–present period. The final data set consists of 3-D values (with constant longitude) of spectrally resolved extinction coefficients, single scattering albedos and asymmetry factors calculated for different wavelength bands upon request. Surface area densities for heterogeneous chemistry are also provided.
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Statistical appearance models have recently been introduced in bone mechanics to investigate bone geometry and mechanical properties in population studies. The establishment of accurate anatomical correspondences is a critical aspect for the construction of reliable models. Depending on the representation of a bone as an image or a mesh, correspondences are detected using image registration or mesh morphing. The objective of this study was to compare image-based and mesh-based statistical appearance models of the femur for finite element (FE) simulations. To this aim, (i) we compared correspondence detection methods on bone surface and in bone volume; (ii) we created an image-based and a mesh-based statistical appearance models from 130 images, which we validated using compactness, representation and generalization, and we analyzed the FE results on 50 recreated bones vs. original bones; (iii) we created 1000 new instances, and we compared the quality of the FE meshes. Results showed that the image-based approach was more accurate in volume correspondence detection and quality of FE meshes, whereas the mesh-based approach was more accurate for surface correspondence detection and model compactness. Based on our results, we recommend the use of image-based statistical appearance models for FE simulations of the femur.
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Lake water temperature (LWT) is an important driver of lake ecosystems and it has been identified as an indicator of climate change. Consequently, the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) lists LWT as an essential climate variable. Although for some European lakes long in situ time series of LWT do exist, many lakes are not observed or only on a non-regular basis making these observations insufficient for climate monitoring. Satellite data can provide the information needed. However, only few satellite sensors offer the possibility to analyse time series which cover 25 years or more. The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) is among these and has been flown as a heritage instrument for almost 35 years. It will be carried on for at least ten more years, offering a unique opportunity for satellite-based climate studies. Herein we present a satellite-based lake surface water temperature (LSWT) data set for European water bodies in or near the Alps based on the extensive AVHRR 1 km data record (1989–2013) of the Remote Sensing Research Group at the University of Bern. It has been compiled out of AVHRR/2 (NOAA-07, -09, -11, -14) and AVHRR/3 (NOAA-16, -17, -18, -19 and MetOp-A) data. The high accuracy needed for climate related studies requires careful pre-processing and consideration of the atmospheric state. The LSWT retrieval is based on a simulation-based scheme making use of the Radiative Transfer for TOVS (RTTOV) Version 10 together with ERA-interim reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts. The resulting LSWTs were extensively compared with in situ measurements from lakes with various sizes between 14 and 580 km2 and the resulting biases and RMSEs were found to be within the range of −0.5 to 0.6 K and 1.0 to 1.6 K, respectively. The upper limits of the reported errors could be rather attributed to uncertainties in the data comparison between in situ and satellite observations than inaccuracies of the satellite retrieval. An inter-comparison with the standard Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Land Surface Temperature product exhibits RMSEs and biases in the range of 0.6 to 0.9 and −0.5 to 0.2 K, respectively. The cross-platform consistency of the retrieval was found to be within ~ 0.3 K. For one lake, the satellite-derived trend was compared with the trend of in situ measurements and both were found to be similar. Thus, orbital drift is not causing artificial temperature trends in the data set. A comparison with LSWT derived through global sea surface temperature (SST) algorithms shows lower RMSEs and biases for the simulation-based approach. A running project will apply the developed method to retrieve LSWT for all of Europe to derive the climate signal of the last 30 years. The data are available at doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.831007.
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Ocean biogeochemical and ecosystem processes are linked by net primary production (NPP) in the ocean's surface layer, where inorganic carbon is fixed by photosynthetic processes. Determinations of NPP are necessarily a function of phytoplankton biomass and its physiological status, but the estimation of these two terms from space has remained an elusive target. Here we present new satellite ocean color observations of phytoplankton carbon (C) and chlorophyll (Chl) biomass and show that derived Chl:C ratios closely follow anticipated physiological dependencies on light, nutrients, and temperature. With this new information, global estimates of phytoplankton growth rates (mu) and carbon-based NPP are made for the first time. Compared to an earlier chlorophyll-based approach, our carbon-based values are considerably higher in tropical oceans, show greater seasonality at middle and high latitudes, and illustrate important differences in the formation and demise of regional algal blooms. This fusion of emerging concepts from the phycological and remote sensing disciplines has the potential to fundamentally change how we model and observe carbon cycling in the global oceans.
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In the complex landscape of public education, participants at all levels are searching for policy and practice levers that can raise overall performance and close achievement gaps. The collection of articles in this edition of the Journal of Applied Research on Children takes a big step toward providing the tools and tactics needed for an evidence-based approach to educational policy and practice.
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Proof carrying code is a general methodology for certifying that the execution of an untrusted mobile code is safe, according to a predefined safety policy. The basic idea is that the code supplier attaches a certifícate (or proof) to the mobile code which, then, the consumer checks in order to ensure that the code is indeed safe. The potential benefit is that the consumer's task is reduced from the level of proving to the level of checking, a much simpler task. Recently, the abstract interpretation techniques developed in logic programming have been proposed as a basis for proof carrying code [1]. To this end, the certifícate is generated from an abstract interpretation-based proof of safety. Intuitively, the verification condition is extracted from a set of assertions guaranteeing safety and the answer table generated during the analysis. Given this information, it is relatively simple and fast to verify that the code does meet this proof and so its execution is safe. This extended abstract reports on experiments which illustrate several issues involved in abstract interpretation-based code certification. First, we describe the implementation of our system in the context of CiaoPP: the preprocessor of the Ciao multi-paradigm (constraint) logic programming system. Then, by means of some experiments, we show how code certification is aided in the implementation of the framework. Finally, we discuss the application of our method within the área of pervasive systems which may lack the necessary computing resources to verify safety on their own. We herein illustrate the relevance of the information inferred by existing cost analysis to control resource usage in this context. Moreover, since the (rather complex) analysis phase is replaced by a simpler, efficient checking process at the code consumer side, we believe that our abstract interpretation-based approach to proof-carrying code becomes practically applicable to this kind of systems.
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La mayor parte de los entornos diseñados por el hombre presentan características geométricas específicas. En ellos es frecuente encontrar formas poligonales, rectangulares, circulares . . . con una serie de relaciones típicas entre distintos elementos del entorno. Introducir este tipo de conocimiento en el proceso de construcción de mapas de un robot móvil puede mejorar notablemente la calidad y la precisión de los mapas resultantes. También puede hacerlos más útiles de cara a un razonamiento de más alto nivel. Cuando la construcción de mapas se formula en un marco probabilístico Bayesiano, una especificación completa del problema requiere considerar cierta información a priori sobre el tipo de entorno. El conocimiento previo puede aplicarse de varias maneras, en esta tesis se presentan dos marcos diferentes: uno basado en el uso de primitivas geométricas y otro que emplea un método de representación cercano al espacio de las medidas brutas. Un enfoque basado en características geométricas supone implícitamente imponer un cierto modelo a priori para el entorno. En este sentido, el desarrollo de una solución al problema SLAM mediante la optimización de un grafo de características geométricas constituye un primer paso hacia nuevos métodos de construcción de mapas en entornos estructurados. En el primero de los dos marcos propuestos, el sistema deduce la información a priori a aplicar en cada caso en base a una extensa colección de posibles modelos geométricos genéricos, siguiendo un método de Maximización de la Esperanza para hallar la estructura y el mapa más probables. La representación de la estructura del entorno se basa en un enfoque jerárquico, con diferentes niveles de abstracción para los distintos elementos geométricos que puedan describirlo. Se llevaron a cabo diversos experimentos para mostrar la versatilidad y el buen funcionamiento del método propuesto. En el segundo marco, el usuario puede definir diferentes modelos de estructura para el entorno mediante grupos de restricciones y energías locales entre puntos vecinos de un conjunto de datos del mismo. El grupo de restricciones que se aplica a cada grupo de puntos depende de la topología, que es inferida por el propio sistema. De este modo, se pueden incorporar nuevos modelos genéricos de estructura para el entorno con gran flexibilidad y facilidad. Se realizaron distintos experimentos para demostrar la flexibilidad y los buenos resultados del enfoque propuesto. Abstract Most human designed environments present specific geometrical characteristics. In them, it is easy to find polygonal, rectangular and circular shapes, with a series of typical relations between different elements of the environment. Introducing this kind of knowledge in the mapping process of mobile robots can notably improve the quality and accuracy of the resulting maps. It can also make them more suitable for higher level reasoning applications. When mapping is formulated in a Bayesian probabilistic framework, a complete specification of the problem requires considering a prior for the environment. The prior over the structure of the environment can be applied in several ways; this dissertation presents two different frameworks, one using a feature based approach and another one employing a dense representation close to the measurements space. A feature based approach implicitly imposes a prior for the environment. In this sense, feature based graph SLAM was a first step towards a new mapping solution for structured scenarios. In the first framework, the prior is inferred by the system from a wide collection of feature based priors, following an Expectation-Maximization approach to obtain the most probable structure and the most probable map. The representation of the structure of the environment is based on a hierarchical model with different levels of abstraction for the geometrical elements describing it. Various experiments were conducted to show the versatility and the good performance of the proposed method. In the second framework, different priors can be defined by the user as sets of local constraints and energies for consecutive points in a range scan from a given environment. The set of constraints applied to each group of points depends on the topology, which is inferred by the system. This way, flexible and generic priors can be incorporated very easily. Several tests were carried out to demonstrate the flexibility and the good results of the proposed approach.
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Sensor networks are increasingly becoming one of the main sources of Big Data on the Web. However, the observations that they produce are made available with heterogeneous schemas, vocabularies and data formats, making it difficult to share and reuse these data for other purposes than those for which they were originally set up. In this thesis we address these challenges, considering how we can transform streaming raw data to rich ontology-based information that is accessible through continuous queries for streaming data. Our main contribution is an ontology-based approach for providing data access and query capabilities to streaming data sources, allowing users to express their needs at a conceptual level, independent of implementation and language-specific details. We introduce novel query rewriting and data translation techniques that rely on mapping definitions relating streaming data models to ontological concepts. Specific contributions include: • The syntax and semantics of the SPARQLStream query language for ontologybased data access, and a query rewriting approach for transforming SPARQLStream queries into streaming algebra expressions. • The design of an ontology-based streaming data access engine that can internally reuse an existing data stream engine, complex event processor or sensor middleware, using R2RML mappings for defining relationships between streaming data models and ontology concepts. Concerning the sensor metadata of such streaming data sources, we have investigated how we can use raw measurements to characterize streaming data, producing enriched data descriptions in terms of ontological models. Our specific contributions are: • A representation of sensor data time series that captures gradient information that is useful to characterize types of sensor data. • A method for classifying sensor data time series and determining the type of data, using data mining techniques, and a method for extracting semantic sensor metadata features from the time series.
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By 2050 it is estimated that the number of worldwide Alzheimer?s disease (AD) patients will quadruple from the current number of 36 million people. To date, no single test, prior to postmortem examination, can confirm that a person suffers from AD. Therefore, there is a strong need for accurate and sensitive tools for the early diagnoses of AD. The complex etiology and multiple pathogenesis of AD call for a system-level understanding of the currently available biomarkers and the study of new biomarkers via network-based modeling of heterogeneous data types. In this review, we summarize recent research on the study of AD as a connectivity syndrome. We argue that a network-based approach in biomarker discovery will provide key insights to fully understand the network degeneration hypothesis (disease starts in specific network areas and progressively spreads to connected areas of the initial loci-networks) with a potential impact for early diagnosis and disease-modifying treatments. We introduce a new framework for the quantitative study of biomarkers that can help shorten the transition between academic research and clinical diagnosis in AD.
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The SESAR (Single European Sky ATM Research) program is an ambitious re-search and development initiative to design the future European air traffic man-agement (ATM) system. The study of the behavior of ATM systems using agent-based modeling and simulation tools can help the development of new methods to improve their performance. This paper presents an overview of existing agent-based approaches in air transportation (paying special attention to the challenges that exist for the design of future ATM systems) and, subsequently, describes a new agent-based approach that we proposed in the CASSIOPEIA project, which was developed according to the goals of the SESAR program. In our approach, we use agent models for different ATM stakeholders, and, in contrast to previous work, our solution models new collaborative decision processes for flow traffic management, it uses an intermediate level of abstraction (useful for simulations at larger scales), and was designed to be a practical tool (open and reusable) for the development of different ATM studies. It was successfully applied in three stud-ies related to the design of future ATM systems in Europe.