The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy under a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime

This licentiate's thesis analyzes the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in a small open economy under a flexible exchange rate regime, assuming that the government spends exclusively on domestically produced goods. The motivation for this research comes from the observation that the literature on the new open economy macroeconomics (NOEM) has focused almost exclusively on two-country global models and the analyses of the effects of fiscal policy on small economies are almost completely ignored. This thesis aims at filling in the gap in the NOEM literature and illustrates how the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in a small open economy depend on the specification of preferences. The research method is to present two theoretical model that are extensions to the model contained in the Appendix to Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995). The first model analyzes the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy, making use of a model that exploits the idea of modelling private and government consumption as substitutes in private utility. The model offers intuitive predictions on how the effects of fiscal policy depend on the marginal rate of substitution between private and government consumption. The findings illustrate that the higher the substitutability between private and government consumption, (i) the bigger is the crowding out effect on private consumption (ii) and the smaller is the positive effect on output. The welfare analysis shows that the less fiscal policy decreases welfare the higher is the marginal rate of substitution between private and government consumption. The second model of this thesis studies how the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy depend on the elasticity of substitution between traded and nontraded goods. This model reveals that this elasticity a key variable to explain the exchange rate, current account and output response to a permanent rise in government spending. Finally, the model demonstrates that temporary changes in government spending are an effective stabilization tool when used wisely and timely in response to undesired fluctuations in output. Undesired fluctuations in output can be perfectly offset by an opposite change in government spending without causing any side-effects.

The Gerbera cDNA Microarray: A Tool for Large-Scale Identification of Genes Involved in Flower Development

During the past ten years, large-scale transcript analysis using microarrays has become a powerful tool to identify and predict functions for new genes. It allows simultaneous monitoring of the expression of thousands of genes and has become a routinely used tool in laboratories worldwide. Microarray analysis will, together with other functional genomics tools, take us closer to understanding the functions of all genes in genomes of living organisms. Flower development is a genetically regulated process which has mostly been studied in the traditional model species Arabidopsis thaliana, Antirrhinum majus and Petunia hybrida. The molecular mechanisms behind flower development in them are partly applicable in other plant systems. However, not all biological phenomena can be approached with just a few model systems. In order to understand and apply the knowledge to ecologically and economically important plants, other species also need to be studied. Sequencing of 17 000 ESTs from nine different cDNA libraries of the ornamental plant Gerbera hybrida made it possible to construct a cDNA microarray with 9000 probes. The probes of the microarray represent all different ESTs in the database. From the gerbera ESTs 20% were unique to gerbera while 373 were specific to the Asteraceae family of flowering plants. Gerbera has composite inflorescences with three different types of flowers that vary from each other morphologically. The marginal ray flowers are large, often pigmented and female, while the central disc flowers are smaller and more radially symmetrical perfect flowers. Intermediate trans flowers are similar to ray flowers but smaller in size. This feature together with the molecular tools applied to gerbera, make gerbera a unique system in comparison to the common model plants with only a single kind of flowers in their inflorescence. In the first part of this thesis, conditions for gerbera microarray analysis were optimised including experimental design, sample preparation and hybridization, as well as data analysis and verification. Moreover, in the first study, the flower and flower organ-specific genes were identified. After the reliability and reproducibility of the method were confirmed, the microarrays were utilized to investigate transcriptional differences between ray and disc flowers. This study revealed novel information about the morphological development as well as the transcriptional regulation of early stages of development in various flower types of gerbera. The most interesting finding was differential expression of MADS-box genes, suggesting the existence of flower type-specific regulatory complexes in the specification of different types of flowers. The gerbera microarray was further used to profile changes in expression during petal development. Gerbera ray flower petals are large, which makes them an ideal model to study organogenesis. Six different stages were compared and specifically analysed. Expression profiles of genes related to cell structure and growth implied that during stage two, cells divide, a process which is marked by expression of histones, cyclins and tubulins. Stage 4 was found to be a transition stage between cell division and expansion and by stage 6 cells had stopped division and instead underwent expansion. Interestingly, at the last analysed stage, stage 9, when cells did not grow any more, the highest number of upregulated genes was detected. The gerbera microarray is a fully-functioning tool for large-scale studies of flower development and correlation with real-time RT-PCR results show that it is also highly sensitive and reliable. Gene expression data presented here will be a source for gene expression mining or marker gene discovery in the future studies that will be performed in the Gerbera Laboratory. The publicly available data will also serve the plant research community world-wide.

Population dynamics of blue mussels in a variable environment at the edge of their range

Spatial and temporal variation in the abundance of species can often be ascribed to spatial and temporal variation in the surrounding environment. Knowledge of how biotic and abiotic factors operate over different spatial and temporal scales in determining distribution, abundance, and structure of populations lies at the heart of ecology. The major part of the current ecological theory stems from studies carried out in central parts of the distributional range of species, whereas knowledge of how marginal populations function is inadequate. Understanding how marginal populations, living at the edge of their range, function is however in a key position to advance ecology and evolutionary biology as scientific disciplines. My thesis focuses on the factors affecting dynamics of marginal populations of blue mussels (Mytilus edulis) living close to their tolerance limits with regard to salinity. The thesis aims to highlight the dynamics at the edge of the range and contrast these with dynamics in more central parts of the range in order to understand the potential interplay between the central and the marginal part in the focal system. The objectives of the thesis are approached by studies on: (1) factors affecting regional patterns of the species, (2) long-term temporal dynamics of the focal species spaced along a regional salinity gradient, (3) selective predation by increasing populations of roach (Rutilus rutilus) when feeding on their main food item, the blue mussel, (4) the primary and secondary effects of local wave exposure gradients and (5) the role of small-scale habitat heterogeneity as determinants of large-scale pattern. The thesis shows that populations of blue mussels are largely determined by large scale changes in sea water salinity, affecting mainly recruitment success and longevity of local populations. In opposite to the traditional view, the thesis strongly indicate that vertebrate predators strongly affect abundance and size structure of blue mussel populations, and that the role of these predators increases towards the margin where populations are increasingly top-down controlled. The thesis also indicates that the positive role of biogenic habitat modifiers increases towards the marginal areas, where populations of blue mussels are largely recruitment limited. Finally, the thesis shows that local blue mussel populations are strongly dependent on high water turbulence, and therefore, dense populations are constrained to offshore habitats. Finally, the thesis suggests that ongoing sedimentation of rocky shores is detrimental for the species, affecting recruitment success and post-recruit survival, pushing stable mussel beds towards offshore areas. Ongoing large scale changes in the Baltic Sea, especially dilution processes with attendant effects, are predicted to substantially contract the distributional range of the mussel, but also affect more central populations. The thesis shows that in order to understand the functioning of marginal populations, research should (1) strive for multi-scale approaches in order to link ecosystem patterns with ecosystem processes, and (2) challenge the prevailing tenets that origin from research carried out in central areas that may not be valid at the edge.

Steepest ascent tariff reform

The policy reform literature is primarily concerned with the construction of reforms that yield welfare gains. By contrast, this paper’s contribution is to develop a theoretical concept for which the focus is upon the sizes of welfare gains accruing from policy reforms rather than upon their signs. In undertaking this task, and by focusing on tariff reforms, we introduce the concept of a steepest ascent policy reform, which is a locally optimal reform in the sense that it achieves the highest marginal gain in utility of any feasible local reform. We argue that this reform presents itself as a natural benchmark for the evaluation of the welfare effectiveness of other popular tariff reforms such as the proportional tariff reduction and the concertina rules, since it provides the maximal welfare gain of all possible local reforms. We derive properties of the steepest ascent tariff reform, construct an index to measure the relative welfare effectiveness of any given tariff reform, determine conditions under which proportional and concertina reforms are locally optimal and provide illustrative examples.

Changes in testicular function following specific deprivation of LH in the adult male rabbit

Sexually mature male rabbits actively immunized against highly purified ovine LH (oLH) were used as a model system to study the effects of endogenous LH deprivation (and therefore testosterone) on spermatogenesis as well as pituitary FSH secretion. Immunization against oLH generated antibody titres capable of cross-reacting and neutralizing rabbit LH and this resulted in a significant reduction (P<0.01) in serum testosterone levels by 2-4 weeks of immunization. A significant increase in circulating FSH concentration (from a basal level of similar to 1 ng to 60-100 ng/ml; P<0.01) was observed within 4-6 weeks of immunization, perhaps a consequence of the negative feedback effect of the lack of testosterone. The effect of LH deprivation on spermatogenesis assessed by DNA flow cytometry and histological analyses of testicular biopsy tissue revealed that lack of testosterone primarily results in a rapid reduction and complete absence of round (1C) and elongated (HC) spermatids. The immediate effect of LH/testosterone deprivation thus appears to be at the step of meiotic transformation of primary spermatocytes (4C) to 1C. A significant reduction (>80%; P<0.01) in the 4C population and a relative accumulation (>90%; P<0.01) in spermatogonia (2C) was also observed, suggesting a need for testosterone during the transformation of 2C to 1C. In all but one of the rabbits, both qualitative and quantitative recovery in spermatogenesis occurred during the recovery phase, even at a time when only a marginal increase in serum testosterone (compared with the preimmunization) levels was observed as a result of a rapid decline in the cross-reactive antibody titres. These results clearly show that LH/testosterone deprivation in addition to primarily affecting the meiotic step also regulates the conversion of 2C to 4C during spermatogenesis.

Analyzing changes in macro-level drivers of country-specific emissions : The role of consumption, technology and trade

Industrial ecology is an important field of sustainability science. It can be applied to study environmental problems in a policy relevant manner. Industrial ecology uses ecosystem analogy; it aims at closing the loop of materials and substances and at the same time reducing resource consumption and environmental emissions. Emissions from human activities are related to human interference in material cycles. Carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are essential elements for all living organisms, but in excess have negative environmental impacts, such as climate change (CO2, CH4 N2O), acidification (NOx) and eutrophication (N, P). Several indirect macro-level drivers affect emissions change. Population and affluence (GDP/capita) often act as upward drivers for emissions. Technology, as emissions per service used, and consumption, as economic intensity of use, may act as drivers resulting in a reduction in emissions. In addition, the development of country-specific emissions is affected by international trade. The aim of this study was to analyse changes in emissions as affected by macro-level drivers in different European case studies. ImPACT decomposition analysis (IPAT identity) was applied as a method in papers I III. The macro-level perspective was applied to evaluate CO2 emission reduction targets (paper II) and the sharing of greenhouse gas emission reduction targets (paper IV) in the European Union (EU27) up to the year 2020. Data for the study were mainly gathered from official statistics. In all cases, the results were discussed from an environmental policy perspective. The development of nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions was analysed in the Finnish energy sector during a long time period, 1950 2003 (paper I). Finnish emissions of NOx began to decrease in the 1980s as the progress in technology in terms of NOx/energy curbed the impact of the growth in affluence and population. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions related to energy use during 1993 2004 (paper II) were analysed by country and region within the European Union. Considering energy-based CO2 emissions in the European Union, dematerialization and decarbonisation did occur, but not sufficiently to offset population growth and the rapidly increasing affluence during 1993 2004. The development of nitrogen and phosphorus load from aquaculture in relation to salmonid consumption in Finland during 1980 2007 was examined, including international trade in the analysis (paper III). A regional environmental issue, eutrophication of the Baltic Sea, and a marginal, yet locally important source of nutrients was used as a case. Nutrient emissions from Finnish aquaculture decreased from the 1990s onwards: although population, affluence and salmonid consumption steadily increased, aquaculture technology improved and the relative share of imported salmonids increased. According to the sustainability challenge in industrial ecology, the environmental impact of the growing population size and affluence should be compensated by improvements in technology (emissions/service used) and with dematerialisation. In the studied cases, the emission intensity of energy production could be lowered for NOx by cleaning the exhaust gases. Reorganization of the structure of energy production as well as technological innovations will be essential in lowering the emissions of both CO2 and NOx. Regarding the intensity of energy use, making the combustion of fuels more efficient and reducing energy use are essential. In reducing nutrient emissions from Finnish aquaculture to the Baltic Sea (paper III) through technology, limits of biological and physical properties of cultured fish, among others, will eventually be faced. Regarding consumption, salmonids are preferred to many other protein sources. Regarding trade, increasing the proportion of imports will outsource the impacts. Besides improving technology and dematerialization, other viewpoints may also be needed. Reducing the total amount of nutrients cycling in energy systems and eventually contributing to NOx emissions needs to be emphasized. Considering aquaculture emissions, nutrient cycles can be partly closed through using local fish as feed replacing imported feed. In particular, the reduction of CO2 emissions in the future is a very challenging task when considering the necessary rates of dematerialisation and decarbonisation (paper II). Climate change mitigation may have to focus on other greenhouse gases than CO2 and on the potential role of biomass as a carbon sink, among others. The global population is growing and scaling up the environmental impact. Population issues and growing affluence must be considered when discussing emission reductions. Climate policy has only very recently had an influence on emissions, and strong actions are now called for climate change mitigation. Environmental policies in general must cover all the regions related to production and impacts in order to avoid outsourcing of emissions and leakage effects. The macro-level drivers affecting changes in emissions can be identified with the ImPACT framework. Statistics for generally known macro-indicators are currently relatively well available for different countries, and the method is transparent. In the papers included in this study, a similar method was successfully applied in different types of case studies. Using transparent macro-level figures and a simple top-down approach are also appropriate in evaluating and setting international emission reduction targets, as demonstrated in papers II and IV. The projected rates of population and affluence growth are especially worth consideration in setting targets. However, sensitivities in calculations must be carefully acknowledged. In the basic form of the ImPACT model, the economic intensity of consumption and emission intensity of use are included. In seeking to examine consumption but also international trade in more detail, imports were included in paper III. This example demonstrates well how outsourcing of production influences domestic emissions. Country-specific production-based emissions have often been used in similar decomposition analyses. Nevertheless, trade-related issues must not be ignored.

Randomised Evaluation of New Technologies within the Population‐Based Cervical Cancer Screening Programme in Finland: Cross‐Sectional Performance and Validity

A randomised and population-based screening design with new technologies has been applied to the organised cervical cancer screening programme in Finland. In this experiment the women invited to routine five-yearly screening are individually randomised to be screened with automation-assisted cytology, human papillomavirus (HPV) test or conventional cytology. By using the randomised design, the ultimate aim is to assess and compare the long-term outcomes of the different screening regimens. The primary aim of the current study was to evaluate, based on the material collected during the implementation phase of the Finnish randomised screening experiment, the cross-sectional performance and validity of automation-assisted cytology (Papnet system) and primary HPV DNA testing (Hybrid Capture II assay for 13 oncogenic HPV types) within service screening, in comparison to conventional cytology. The parameters of interest were test positivity rate, histological detection rate, relative sensitivity, relative specificity and positive predictive value. Also, the effect of variation in performance by screening laboratory on age-adjusted cervical cancer incidence was assessed. Based on the cross-sectional results, almost no differences were observed in the performance of conventional and automation-assisted screening. Instead, primary HPV screening found 58% (95% confidence interval 19-109%) more cervical lesions than conventional screening. However, this was mainly due to overrepresentation of mild- and moderate-grade lesions and, thus, is likely to result in overtreatment since a great deal of these lesions would never progress to invasive cancer. Primary screening with an HPV DNA test alone caused substantial loss in specificity in comparison to cytological screening. With the use of cytology triage test, the specificity of HPV screening improved close to the level of conventional cytology. The specificity of primary HPV screening was also increased by increasing the test positivity cutoff from the level recommended for clinical use, but the increase was more modest than the one gained with the use of cytology triage. The performance of the cervical cancer screening programme varied widely between the screening laboratories, but the variation in overall programme effectiveness between respective populations was more marginal from the very beginning of the organised screening activity. Thus, conclusive interpretations on the quality or success of screening should not be based on performance parameters only. In the evaluation of cervical cancer screening the outcome should be selected as closely as possible to the true measure of programme effectiveness, which is the number of invasive cervical cancers and subsequent deaths prevented in the target population. The evaluation of benefits and adverse effects of each new suggested screening technology should be performed before the technology becomes an accepted routine in the existing screening programme. At best, the evaluation is performed randomised, within the population and screening programme in question, which makes the results directly applicable to routine use.

Wigner distributions for finite-state systems without redundant phase-point operators

We set up Wigner distributions for N-state quantum systems following a Dirac-inspired approach. In contrast to much of the work in this study, requiring a 2N x 2N phase space, particularly when N is even, our approach is uniformly based on an N x N phase-space grid and thereby avoids the necessity of having to invoke a `quadrupled' phase space and hence the attendant redundance. Both N odd and even cases are analysed in detail and it is found that there are striking differences between the two. While the N odd case permits full implementation of the marginal property, the even case does so only in a restricted sense. This has the consequence that in the even case one is led to several equally good definitions of the Wigner distributions as opposed to the odd case where the choice turns out to be unique.

Design of multiunit electronic exchanges through decomposition

In this paper, we exploit the idea of decomposition to match buyers and sellers in an electronic exchange for trading large volumes of homogeneous goods, where the buyers and sellers specify marginal-decreasing piecewise constant price curves to capture volume discounts. Such exchanges are relevant for automated trading in many e-business applications. The problem of determining winners and Vickrey prices in such exchanges is known to have a worst-case complexity equal to that of as many as (1 + m + n) NP-hard problems, where m is the number of buyers and n is the number of sellers. Our method proposes the overall exchange problem to be solved as two separate and simpler problems: 1) forward auction and 2) reverse auction, which turns out to be generalized knapsack problems. In the proposed approach, we first determine the quantity of units to be traded between the sellers and the buyers using fast heuristics developed by us. Next, we solve a forward auction and a reverse auction using fully polynomial time approximation schemes available in the literature. The proposed approach has worst-case polynomial time complexity. and our experimentation shows that the approach produces good quality solutions to the problem. Note to Practitioners- In recent times, electronic marketplaces have provided an efficient way for businesses and consumers to trade goods and services. The use of innovative mechanisms and algorithms has made it possible to improve the efficiency of electronic marketplaces by enabling optimization of revenues for the marketplace and of utilities for the buyers and sellers. In this paper, we look at single-item, multiunit electronic exchanges. These are electronic marketplaces where buyers submit bids and sellers ask for multiple units of a single item. We allow buyers and sellers to specify volume discounts using suitable functions. Such exchanges are relevant for high-volume business-to-business trading of standard products, such as silicon wafers, very large-scale integrated chips, desktops, telecommunications equipment, commoditized goods, etc. The problem of determining winners and prices in such exchanges is known to involve solving many NP-hard problems. Our paper exploits the familiar idea of decomposition, uses certain algorithms from the literature, and develops two fast heuristics to solve the problem in a near optimal way in worst-case polynomial time.

Probiotics in the prevention of clinical manifestations of common infectious diseases in children and in the elderly

Infectious diseases put an enormous burden on both children and the elderly in the forms of respiratory, gastrointestinal and oral infections. There is evidence suggesting that specific probiotics may be antagonistic to pathogens and may enhance the immune system, but the clinical evidence is still too sparce to make general conclusions on the disease-preventive effects of probiotics. This thesis, consisting of four independent, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trials, investigated whether Lactobacillus GG (LGG) or a specific probiotic combination containing LGG would reduce the risk of common infections or the prevalence of pathogens in healthy and infection-prone children and in independent and institutionalised elderly people. In healthy day-care children, the 7-month consumption of probiotic milk containing Lactobacillus GG appeared to postpone the first acute respiratory infection (ARI) by one week (p=0.03, adjusted p=0.16), and to reduce complicated infections (39% vs. 47%, p<0.05, adjusted p=0.13), as well as the need for antibiotic treatment (44% vs. 54%, p=0.03, adjusted p=0.08) and day-care absences (4.9 vs. 5.8 days, p=0.03, adjusted p=0.09) compared to the placebo milk. In infection-prone children, the 6-month consumption of a combination of four probiotic bacteria (LGG, L. rhamnosus LC705, Propionibacterium freudenreichii JS, Bifidobacterium breve 99) taken in capsules appeared to reduce recurrent ARIs (72% vs. 82%, p<0.05; adjusted p=0.06), and the effect was particularly noticeable in a subgroup of children with allergic diseases (12% vs. 33%, p=0.03), although no effect on the presence of nasopharyngeal rhinovirus or enterovirus was seen. The 5-month consumption of the same probiotic combination did not show any beneficial effects on the respiratory infections in frail, institutionalised elderly subjects. In healthy children receiving Lactobacillus GG, the reduction in complications resulted in a marginal reduction in the occurrence of acute otitis media (AOM) (31% vs. 39%, p=0.08; adjusted p=0.19), and the postponement of the first AOM episode by 12 days (p=0.04; adjusted p=0.09). However, in otitis-prone children, a probiotic combination did not reduce the occurrence of AOM or the total prevalence of common AOM pathogens (Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, Moraxella catarrhalis), except in the case of children with allergic diseases, in whom probiotics reduced recurrent AOM episodes (0% vs. 14%, p=0.03). In addition, interaction between probiotics and bacterial carriage was seen: probiot-ics reduced AOM in children who did not carry any bacterial pathogens (63% vs. 83%), but the effect was the reverse in children carrying bacteria in the nasopharynx (74% vs 62%) (p<0.05). Long-term probiotic treatment, either LGG given in milk to healthy children for 7 months or a combination of probiotics given in capsules to institutionalised elderly subjects for 5 months, did not reduce the occurrence of acute diarrhoea. However, when the probiotic combination (LGG, L. rhamnosus LC705, Propionibacterium JS) was given in cheese to independent elderly subjects for 4 months, the oral carriage of high Candida counts was reduced in the probiotic group vs. the placebo group (21% vs. 34%, p=0.01, adjusted p=0.004). The risk of hyposalivation was also reduced in the probiotic group (p=0.05). In conclusion, probiotics appear to slightly alleviate the severity of infections by postponing their appearance, by reducing complications and the need for antimicrobial treatments. In addition, they appear to prevent recurrent infections in certain subgroups of children, such as in infection-prone children with allergic diseases. Alleviating ARI by probiotics may lead to a marginal reduction in the occurrence of AOM in healthy children but not in infection-prone children with disturbed nasopharyngeal microbiota. On the basis of these results it could be supposed that Lactobacillus GG or a specific combination containing LGG are effective against viral but not against bacterial otitis, and the mechanism is probably mediated through the stimulation of the immune system. A specific probiotic combination does not reduce respiratory infections in frail elderly subjects. Acute diarrhoea, either in children or in the elderly, is not prevented by the continuous, long-term consumption of probiotics, but the consumption of a specific probiotic combination in a food matrix is beneficial to the oral health of the elderly, through the reduction of the carriage of Candida.

On the PAPR of cosets of linear codes

Employing an error control code is one of the techniques to reduce the Peak-to-Average Power Ratio (PAPR) in a Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing system, a well known class of such codes being the cosets of Reed-Muller codes. In this paper, we consider the class of such coset-codes of arbitrary linear codes and present a method of doubling the size of such a code without increasing the PAPR, by combining two such binary coset-codes. We identify the conditions under which we can employ this doubling more than once with no marginal increase in the PAPR value. Given a PAPR and length, our method has enabled to get the best coset-code (in terms of the size). Also, we show that the PAPR information of the coset-codes of the extended codes is obtainable from the PAPR of the corresponding coset-codes of the parent code. We have also shown a special type of lengthening is useful in PAPR studies.

Network topological thresholds in gallium doped As-Te glasses Electrical and thermal investigations

Electrical switching and differential scanning calorimetric studies are undertaken on bulk As20Te80-xGax glasses, to elucidate the network topological thresholds. It is found that these glasses exhibit a single glass transition (T-g) and two crystallization reactions (T-cl & T-c2) upon heating. It is also found that there is only a marginal change in T-g with the addition of up to about 10% of Ga; around this composition an increase is seen in 7, which culminates in a local maximum around x = 15. The decrease exhibited in T, beyond this composition, leads to a local minimum at x = 17.5. Further, the As20Te80-xGax glasses are found to exhibit memory type electrical switching. The switching voltages (VT) increase with the increase in gallium content and a local maximum is seen in V-tau around x = 15. VT is found to decrease with x thereafter, exhibiting a local minimum around x = 17.5. The composition dependence of T-cl is found to be very similar to that of V-T of As20Te80-xGax glasses. Based on the present results, it is proposed that the composition x = 15 and x = 17.5 correspond to the rigidity percolation and chemical thresholds, respectively, of As20Te80-xGax glasses. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the behaviour of some physical parameterization methods in high-resolution numerical weather prediction models

Modern-day weather forecasting is highly dependent on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models as the main data source. The evolving state of the atmosphere with time can be numerically predicted by solving a set of hydrodynamic equations, if the initial state is known. However, such a modelling approach always contains approximations that by and large depend on the purpose of use and resolution of the models. Present-day NWP systems operate with horizontal model resolutions in the range from about 40 km to 10 km. Recently, the aim has been to reach operationally to scales of 1 4 km. This requires less approximations in the model equations, more complex treatment of physical processes and, furthermore, more computing power. This thesis concentrates on the physical parameterization methods used in high-resolution NWP models. The main emphasis is on the validation of the grid-size-dependent convection parameterization in the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) and on a comprehensive intercomparison of radiative-flux parameterizations. In addition, the problems related to wind prediction near the coastline are addressed with high-resolution meso-scale models. The grid-size-dependent convection parameterization is clearly beneficial for NWP models operating with a dense grid. Results show that the current convection scheme in HIRLAM is still applicable down to a 5.6 km grid size. However, with further improved model resolution, the tendency of the model to overestimate strong precipitation intensities increases in all the experiment runs. For the clear-sky longwave radiation parameterization, schemes used in NWP-models provide much better results in comparison with simple empirical schemes. On the other hand, for the shortwave part of the spectrum, the empirical schemes are more competitive for producing fairly accurate surface fluxes. Overall, even the complex radiation parameterization schemes used in NWP-models seem to be slightly too transparent for both long- and shortwave radiation in clear-sky conditions. For cloudy conditions, simple cloud correction functions are tested. In case of longwave radiation, the empirical cloud correction methods provide rather accurate results, whereas for shortwave radiation the benefit is only marginal. Idealised high-resolution two-dimensional meso-scale model experiments suggest that the reason for the observed formation of the afternoon low level jet (LLJ) over the Gulf of Finland is an inertial oscillation mechanism, when the large-scale flow is from the south-east or west directions. The LLJ is further enhanced by the sea-breeze circulation. A three-dimensional HIRLAM experiment, with a 7.7 km grid size, is able to generate a similar LLJ flow structure as suggested by the 2D-experiments and observations. It is also pointed out that improved model resolution does not necessary lead to better wind forecasts in the statistical sense. In nested systems, the quality of the large-scale host model is really important, especially if the inner meso-scale model domain is small.

Random existence of charge ordered stripes and its influence on the magnetotransport properties of La0.6Sr0.4MnO3 perovskite substituted with diamagnetic ions at Mn sublattice

Phase-singular solid solutions of La0.6Sr0.4Mn1-yMeyO3 (0 <= y <= 0.3) [Me=Li1+, Mg2+, Al3+, Ti4+, Nb5+, Mo6+ or W6+] [LSMey] perovskite of rhombohedral symmetry (space group: R (3) over barc) have been prepared wherein the valence of the diamagnetic substituent at Mn site ranged from 1 to 6. With increasing y-content in LSMey, the metal-insulator (TM-I) transition in resistivity-temperature rho(T) curves shifted to low temperatures. The magnetization studies M(H) as well as the M(T) indicated two groups for LSMey. (1) Group A with Me=Mg, Al, Ti, or Nb which are paramagnetic insulators (PIs) at room temperature with low values of M (< 0.5 mu(B)/Mn); the magnetic transition [ferromagnetic insulator (FMI)-PI] temperature (T-C) shifts to low temperatures and nearly coincides with that of TM-I and the maximum magnetoresistance (MR) of similar to 50% prevails near T-C (approximate to TM-I). (2) Group-B samples with Me=Li, Mo, or W which are FMIs with M-s=3.3-3.58 mu(B)/Mn and marginal reduction in T-C similar to 350 K as compared to the undoped LSMO (T-C similar to 378 K). The latter samples show large temperature differences Delta T=T-c-TM-I, reaching up to similar to 288 K. The maximum MR (similar to 60%) prevails at low temperatures corresponding to the M-I transition TM-I rather than around T-C. High resolution lattice images as well as microscopy analysis revealed the prevalence of inhomogeneous phase mixtures of randomly distributed charge ordered-insulating (COI) bistripes (similar to 3-5 nm width) within FMI charge-disordered regions, yet maintaining crystallographically single phase with no secondary precipitate formation. The averaged ionic radius < r(B)>, valency, or charge/radius ratio < CRR > cannot be correlated with that of large Delta T; hence cannot be used to parametrize the discrepancy between T-C and TM-I. The M-I transition is controlled by the charge conduction within the electronically heterogeneous mixtures (COI bistripes+FMI charge disordered); large MR at TM-I suggests that the spin-ordered FM-insulating regions assist the charge transport, whereas the T-C is associated with the bulk spin ordered regions corresponding to the FMI phase of higher volume fraction of which anchors the T-C to higher temperatures. The present analysis showed that the double-exchange model alone cannot account for the wide bifurcation of the magnetic and electric transitions, contributions from the charge as well as lattice degrees of freedom to be separated from spin/orbital ordering. The heterogeneous phase mixtures (COI+FMI) cannot be treated as of granular composite behavior. (c) 2008 American Institute of Physics.

Primordial Isocurvature Perturbation in Light of CMB and LSS Data

The increased accuracy in the cosmological observations, especially in the measurements of the comic microwave background, allow us to study the primordial perturbations in grater detail. In this thesis, we allow the possibility for a correlated isocurvature perturbations alongside the usual adiabatic perturbations. Thus far the simplest six parameter \Lambda CDM model has been able to accommodate all the observational data rather well. However, we find that the 3-year WMAP data and the 2006 Boomerang data favour a nonzero nonadiabatic contribution to the CMB angular power sprctrum. This is primordial isocurvature perturbation that is positively correlated with the primordial curvature perturbation. Compared with the adiabatic \Lambda CMD model we have four additional parameters describing the increased complexity if the primordial perturbations. Our best-fit model has a 4% nonadiabatic contribution to the CMB temperature variance and the fit is improved by \Delta\chi^2 = 9.7. We can attribute this preference for isocurvature to a feature in the peak structure of the angular power spectrum, namely, the widths of the second and third acoustic peak. Along the way, we have improved our analysis methods by identifying some issues with the parametrisation of the primordial perturbation spectra and suggesting ways to handle these. Due to the improvements, the convergence of our Markov chains is improved. The change of parametrisation has an effect on the MCMC analysis because of the change in priors. We have checked our results against this and find only marginal differences between our parametrisation.