An extended regression approach to estimating loads and their uncertainties in Great Barrier Reef catchments

There are numerous load estimation methods available, some of which are captured in various online tools. However, most estimators are subject to large biases statistically, and their associated uncertainties are often not reported. This makes interpretation difficult and the estimation of trends or determination of optimal sampling regimes impossible to assess. In this paper, we first propose two indices for measuring the extent of sampling bias, and then provide steps for obtaining reliable load estimates by minimizing the biases and making use of possible predictive variables. The load estimation procedure can be summarized by the following four steps: - (i) output the flow rates at regular time intervals (e.g. 10 minutes) using a time series model that captures all the peak flows; - (ii) output the predicted flow rates as in (i) at the concentration sampling times, if the corresponding flow rates are not collected; - (iii) establish a predictive model for the concentration data, which incorporates all possible predictor variables and output the predicted concentrations at the regular time intervals as in (i), and; - (iv) obtain the sum of all the products of the predicted flow and the predicted concentration over the regular time intervals to represent an estimate of the load. The key step to this approach is in the development of an appropriate predictive model for concentration. This is achieved using a generalized regression (rating-curve) approach with additional predictors that capture unique features in the flow data, namely the concept of the first flush, the location of the event on the hydrograph (e.g. rise or fall) and cumulative discounted flow. The latter may be thought of as a measure of constituent exhaustion occurring during flood events. The model also has the capacity to accommodate autocorrelation in model errors which are the result of intensive sampling during floods. Incorporating this additional information can significantly improve the predictability of concentration, and ultimately the precision with which the pollutant load is estimated. We also provide a measure of the standard error of the load estimate which incorporates model, spatial and/or temporal errors. This method also has the capacity to incorporate measurement error incurred through the sampling of flow. We illustrate this approach using the concentrations of total suspended sediment (TSS) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) and gauged flow data from the Burdekin River, a catchment delivering to the Great Barrier Reef. The sampling biases for NOx concentrations range from 2 to 10 times indicating severe biases. As we expect, the traditional average and extrapolation methods produce much higher estimates than those when bias in sampling is taken into account.

A maximum likelihood approach for estimating growth from tag–recapture data

The Fabens method is commonly used to estimate growth parameters k and l infinity in the von Bertalanffy model from tag-recapture data. However, the Fabens method of estimation has an inherent bias when individual growth is variable. This paper presents an asymptotically unbiassed method using a maximum likelihood approach that takes account of individual variability in both maximum length and age-at-tagging. It is assumed that each individual's growth follows a von Bertalanffy curve with its own maximum length and age-at-tagging. The parameter k is assumed to be a constant to ensure that the mean growth follows a von Bertalanffy curve and to avoid overparameterization. Our method also makes more efficient use nf thp measurements at tno and recapture and includes diagnostic techniques for checking distributional assumptions. The method is reasonably robust and performs better than the Fabens method when individual growth differs from the von Bertalanffy relationship. When measurement error is negligible, the estimation involves maximizing the profile likelihood of one parameter only. The method is applied to tag-recapture data for the grooved tiger prawn (Penaeus semisulcatus) from the Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia.

The bentiromide test using plasma p-aminobenzoic acid for diagnosing pancreatic insufficiency in young children. The effect of two different doses and a liquid meal

The bentiromide test was evaluated using plasma p-aminobenzoic acid as an indirect test of pancreatic insufficiency in young children between 2 months and 4 years of age. To determine the optimal test method, the following were examined: (a) the best dose of bentiromide (15 mg/kg or 30 mg/kg); (b) the optimal sampling time for plasma p-aminobenzoic acid, and; (c) the effect of coadministration of a liquid meal. Sixty-nine children (1.6 ± 1.0 years) were studied, including 34 controls with normal fat absorption and 35 patients (34 with cystic fibrosis) with fat maldigestion due to pancreatic insufficiency. Control and pancreatic insufficient subjects were studied in three age-matched groups: (a) low-dose bentiromide (15 mg/kg) with clear fluids; (b) high-dose bentiromide (30 mg/kg) with clear fluids, and; (c) high-dose bentiromide with a liquid meal. Plasma p-aminobenzoic acid was determined at 0, 30, 60, and 90 minutes then hourly for 6 hours. The dose effect of bentiromide with clear liquids was evaluated. High-dose bentiromide best discriminated control and pancreatic insufficient subjects, due to a higher peak plasma p-aminobenzoic acid level in controls, but poor sensitivity and specificity remained. High-dose bentiromide with a liquid meal produced a delayed increase in plasma p-aminobenzoic acid in the control subjects probably caused by retarded gastric emptying. However, in the pancreatic insufficient subjects, use of a liquid meal resulted in significantly lower plasma p-aminobenzoic acid levels at all time points; plasma p-aminobenzoic acid at 2 and 3 hours completely discriminated between control and pancreatic insufficient patients. Evaluation of the data by area under the time-concentration curve failed to improve test results. In conclusion, the bentiromide test is a simple, clinically useful means of detecting pancreatic insufficiency in young children, but a higher dose administered with a liquid meal is recommended.

Use of narrow-pore filters in He II transfer devices - new results

With the aim of finding simple methods for the fabrication of He II refilling devices, He II flow has been studied through filters made from various fine powders (oxides and metals, grain sizes in the range 0.05–2 μm) by compacting them under pressure. The results obtained for the different states of He II flow, especially in the “breakthrough” and “easy flow” range, are explained by the fountain effect, He II hydrodynamics and the choking effect. According to the results, pressedpowder filters can be classified into three groups with different flow characteristics, of which the “good transfer filters” with a behaviour neatly described by simple theory are suitable for use in He II refilling devices.

The Broad-Line Type Ic Supernoava SN 2007ru: Adding To The Diversity Of Type Ic Supernovae

Photometric and spectral evolution of the Type Ic supernova SN 2007ru until around 210 days after maximum are presented. The spectra show broad spectral features due to very high expansion velocity, normally seen in hypernovae. The photospheric velocity is higher than other normal Type Ic supernovae (SNe Ic). It is lower than SN 1998bw at similar to 8 days after the explosion, but is comparable at later epochs. The light curve (LC) evolution of SN 2007ru indicates a fast rise time of 8 +/- 3 days to B-band maximum and postmaximum decline more rapid than other broad-line SNe Ic. With an absolute V magnitude of -19.06, SN 2007ru is comparable in brightness with SN 1998bw and lies at the brighter end of the observed SNe Ic. The ejected mass of Ni-56 is estimated to be similar to 0.4 M-circle dot. The fast rise and decline of the LC and the high expansion velocity suggest that SN 2007ru is an explosion with a high kinetic energy/ejecta mass ratio (E-K/M-ej). This adds to the diversity of SNe Ic. Although the early phase spectra are most similar to those of broad-line SN 2003jd, the [O I] line profile in the nebular spectrum of SN 2007ru shows the singly peaked profile, in contrast to the doubly peaked profile in SN 2003jd. The singly peaked profile, together with the high luminosity and the high expansion velocity, may suggest that SN 2007ru could be an aspherical explosion viewed from the polar direction. Estimated oxygen abundance 12 + log(O/H) of similar to 8.8 indicates that SN 2007ru occurred in a region with nearly solar metallicity.

Estimating equations for parameters in stochastic growth models from tag-recapture data

James (1991, Biometrics 47, 1519-1530) constructed unbiased estimating functions for estimating the two parameters in the von Bertalanffy growth curve from tag-recapture data. This paper provides unbiased estimating functions for a class of growth models that incorporate stochastic components and explanatory variables. a simulation study using seasonal growth models indicates that the proposed method works well while the least-squares methods that are commonly used in the literature may produce substantially biased estimates. The proposed model and method are also applied to real data from tagged rack lobsters to assess the possible seasonal effect on growth.

An improved Fabens method for estimation of growth parameters in the vonBertalanffy model with individual asymptotes

In the analysis of tagging data, it has been found that the least-squares method, based on the increment function known as the Fabens method, produces biased estimates because individual variability in growth is not allowed for. This paper modifies the Fabens method to account for individual variability in the length asymptote. Significance tests using t-statistics or log-likelihood ratio statistics may be applied to show the level of individual variability. Simulation results indicate that the modified method reduces the biases in the estimates to negligible proportions. Tagging data from tiger prawns (Penaeus esculentus and Penaeus semisulcatus) and rock lobster (Panulirus ornatus) are analysed as an illustration.

Quantifying progressive anterior overgrowth in the thoracic vertebrae of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis patients

Study design Anterior and posterior vertebral body heights were measured from sequential MRI scans of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) patients and healthy controls. Objective To measure changes in vertebral body height over time during scoliosis progression to assess how vertebral body height discrepancies change during growth. Summary of background data Relative anterior overgrowth has been proposed as a potential driver for AIS initiation and progression. This theory proposes that the anterior column grows faster, and the posterior column slower, in AIS patients when compared to healthy controls. There is disagreement in the literature as to whether the anterior vertebral body heights are proportionally greater than posterior vertebral body heights in AIS patients when compared to healthy controls. To some extent, these discrepancies may be attributed to methodological differences. Methods MRI scans of the major curve of 21 AIS patients (mean age 12.5 ± 1.4 years, mean Cobb 32.2 ± 12.8º) and between T4 and T12 of 21 healthy adolescents (mean age 12.1 ± 0.5 years) were captured for this study. Of the 21 AIS patients, 14 had a second scan on average 10.8 ± 4.7 months after the first. Anterior and posterior vertebral body heights were measured from the true sagittal plane of each vertebra such that anterior overgrowth could be quantified. Results The difference between anterior and posterior vertebral body height in healthy, non-scoliotic children was significantly greater than in AIS patients with mild to moderate scoliosis. However there was no significant relationship between the overall anterior-posterior vertebral body height difference in AIS and either severity of the curve or its progression over time. Conclusions Whilst AIS patients have a proportionally longer anterior column than non-scoliotic controls, the degree of anterior overgrowth was not related to the rate of progression or the severity of the scoliotic curve.

Murtuva säätyvalta, kestävä eliitti : Senaattori Lennart Gripenbergin sukupiiri ja sääty-yhteiskunnan muodonmuutos

This study examines the transformation of the society of estates in the Finnish Grand Duchy through the case study of Senator Lennart Gripenberg and his family circle. While national borders and state structures changed, the connections between old ruling elite families remained intact as invisible family networks, ownership relations, economic collaboration and power of military families. These were the cornerstones of trust, which helped to strengthen positions gained in society. Also, these connections often had a central if unperceivable impact on social development and modernization. Broadly speaking, the intergenerational social reproduction made it possible for this network of connections to remain in power and, as an imperceptible factor, also influenced short-term developments in the long run. Decisions which in the short term appeared unproductive, would in the long run produce cumulative immaterial and material capital across generations as long-term investments. Social mobility, then, is a process which clearly takes several generations to become manifest. The study explores long-term strategies of reproducing and transferring the capital accumulated in multinational elite networks. Also, what was the relationship of these strategies to social change? For the representatives of the military estate the nobility and for those men of the highest estates who had benefited from military training, this very education of a technical-military nature was the key to steering, controlling and dealing with the challenges following the industrial breakthrough. The disintegration of the society of estates and the rising educational standards also increased the influence of those professionals previously excluded, which served to intensify competition for positions of power. The family connections highlighted in this study overlapped in many ways, working side by side and in tandem to manage the economic and political life in Finland, Russia and Sweden. The analysis of these ties has opened up a new angle to economic co-operation, for example, as seen in the position of such family networks not only in Finnish, but also Swedish and Russian corporations and in the long historical background of the collaboration. This also highlights in a new way the role of women in transferring the cumulative social capital and as silent business partners. The marriage strategies evident in business life clearly had an impact on the economic life. The collaborative networks which transcended generations, national boundaries and structures also uncover, as far as the elites are concerned, serious problems in comparative studies conducted from purely national premises. As the same influential families and persons in effect held several leading positions in society, the line would blur between public and invisible uses of power. The power networks thus aimed to build monopolies to secure their key positions at the helm. This study therefore examines the roles of Lennart Gripenberg senator, business executive, superintendent of the Department of Industry, factory inspector, and founding member of industrial interest groups as part of the reproduction strategies of the elite. The family and other networks of the powerful leaders of society, distinguished by social, economic and cultural capital, provided a solid backdrop for the so-called old elites in their quest for strategies to reproducing power in a changing world. Crucially, it was easier for the elites to gain expertise to steer the modernization process and thereby secure for the next generation a leading position in society, something that they traditionally, too, had had the greatest interest in.

The Milky Way's Dark Matter Halo Appears To Be Lopsided

The atomic hydrogen gas (H I) disk in the outer region (beyond similar to 10 kpc from the center) of Milky Way can provide valuable information about the structure of the dark matter halo. The recent three-dimensional thickness map of the outer H I disk from the all sky 21 cm line Leiden/Argentine/Bonn survey, gives us a unique opportunity to investigate the structure of the dark matter halo of Milky Way in great detail. A striking feature of this new survey is the north-south (N-S) asymmetry in the thickness map of the atomic hydrogen gas. Assuming vertical hydrostatic equilibrium under the total potential of the Galaxy, we derive the model thickness map of the H I gas. We show that simple axisymmetric halo models, such as softened isothermal halo (producing a flat rotation curve with V-c similar to 220 km s(-1)) or any halo with density falling faster than the isothermal one, are not able to explain the observed radial variation of the gas thickness. We also show that such axisymmetric halos along with different H I velocity dispersion in the two halves, cannot explain the observed asymmetry in the thickness map. Amongst the nonaxisymmetric models, it is shown that a purely lopsided (m = 1, first harmonic) dark matter halo with reasonable H I velocity dispersion fails to explain the N-S asymmetry satisfactorily. However, we show that by superposing a second harmonic (m = 2) out of phase onto a purely lopsided halo, e. g., our best fit and more acceptable model A (with parameters epsilon(1)(h) = 0.2, epsilon(2)(h) = 0.18, and sigma(H I) = 8.5 km s(-1)) can provide an excellent fit to the observation and reproduce the N-S asymmetry naturally. The emerging picture of the asymmetric dark matter halo is supported by the. cold dark matter halos formed in the cosmological N-body simulation.

Kohti lyyristä abstraktismia : Anitra Lucanderin 1950-luvun modernismi

Towards Lyrical Abstraction Anitra Lucander s Modernism in the 1950s Anitra Lucander (1918-2000) was one of the early pioneers of abstract art in Finland. During the Second World War Finnish art and cultural life was isolated and stagnated and figurative art was still dominant after the war. In the late 1940s and early 1950s, new international abstract art movements started to come to Finland. Anitra Lucander was one of the artists of the younger generation after the war who took an interest in the abstract movements in the early 1950s. At the beginning of the 1950s, abstract art came to Finland primarily in the form of Concretism, but simultaneously, a more delicate abstract movement emerged, and Anitra Lucander was among those cultivating such conceptions in her art. In this thesis, I observe and analyze through Anitra Lucander s art this central movement in Finnish modern art that has not yet been extensively studied. I examine how Anitra Lucander s art connects with the style change in Finnish art. I scrutinize the factors that affected Lucander and turned her towards abstract expression, and the effect her art had on emergence of abstract art in Finland. I will also consider the development of her art, the reception and critique of her art and the effect the critique had on her position in the 1950s art world. Because of a lack of earlier studies, I will undertake basic research, relying on empirical primary source material, where the starting point is to place the phenomenon under examination in the historical and cultural context. The most significant study materials are the artist s paintings and graphics from 1948 to 1960, newspaper and magazine articles from the same era, archive sources and interviews with Lucander s relatives, fellow artists and friends. An interesting aspect of the topic is the fact that Anitra Lucander was the only woman among the important pioneers of early Finnish abstract art. Through Lucander s art, I also examine the position of female artists in the tradition of Modernism as well as in the Finnish art world of the 1950s. This theoretical background is provided by the studies of feminist art historians, such as Marsha Meskimmon, Gill Perry, Griselda Pollock and Anne Middleton Wagner. Lucander s position in the male-dominated Finnish art scene of the 1950s, and how she achieved her position, emerges as one of the central themes of the study. I will also observe whether gender is evident in Lucander s art and expression, as well as her reception and critique compared to the reception of her male colleagues art. From a woman s point of view, I reveal the masculine rhetoric and gendered attitudes in the critique of the era. As a theoretical and methodological frame of reference, I use discourse analysis. Anitra Lucander encountered modernistic, international art movements during her journeys to Paris in the late 1940s and early 1950s. Her art evolved from the geometric Concretism of the early decade towards more delicate and painterly abstract expression. After the mid-1950s, she had developed her signature expression; through Cubism and a collage technique, she developed in her painting a delicate, coloristic imagery, which can be characterized as Lyrical Abstraction. Lucander did not consider abstract expression to be categorical, but saw the abstract and the nonfigurative as equals: the line between the abstract and the figurative is very often fleeting in her art. Already in her own time, Lucander achieved a position as one of the most talented young artists of her generation and her work was included in significant exhibitions. This success can definitely be attributed to the fact that she embraced Modernism in its extreme form, abstraction, already at the beginning of her career and networked with male painters who shared her outlook and modernistic expression. For her, this was either a conscious or an unconscious method of adapting to the male-dominated Finnish art field in the 1950s. In spite of acclaim and attention, Lucander had to encounter the gendered attitudes in the critique of the time, and her art was often perceived through stereotypical views as overly feminine and dependent. However, with her art, Lucander played an important role in the breakthrough for colorism and abstract art in Finland in the 1950s.

Idyll eller verklighet? : Albert Edelfelt och Gunnar Berndtson i det moderna genombrottets ambivalens

Idyll or Reality? Albert Edelfelt, Gunnar Berndtson and the ambivalent breakthrough of modernity Albert Edelfelt (1854-1905) and Gunnar Berndtson (1854-1895) have much in common. In this dissertation, I study their paintings of local peasants and fishermen and of the gentry’s summer in the county of Uusimaa in southern Finland, in the context of Nordic history of ideas. The breakthrough of modernity, with its attention on debating social problems, provides a novel angle into the oeuvres of the two artists. My focus is on the paintings which emerge in the collision of the public discussion of social matters and the values of the artists’ manorial milieu. The artists’ relation to the public discussion is scrutinized through two of the main topics: the question of the common people and democracy, and the question of equality between men and women. My dissertation is a contextual study which is based on the analysis of the artworks of Edelfelt and Berndtson, on their letters, and on the study of drama and fiction of their time. The notion “liberté, egalité, fraternité” is linked to the breakthrough of modernity. Both artists were aware of the ideal of equality. They used the means and the themes of contemporary art in their presentations, but their pictures contain the ideal of an earlier epoch: the hardworking, but still complacent common people. This conception of the common people is also reflected in the poems of J. L. Runeberg. Women of the late 19th century challenged woman’s primary role as wife and mother. In Edelfelt’s and Berndtson’s depictions of the gentry enjoying summer, women and children have the main role. Notwithstanding the debate of the breakthrough of modernity they depicted women almost without exception as good mothers. Their paintings often depict lazy days in the sunshine, which were, in reality, rare moments for the mistress of the house. Edelfelt’s and Berndtson’s subjects from the Uusimaa countryside coincide with the topics of the breakthrough of modernity, but both the pictures of the common people and the depictions of the gentry enjoying summer, are a retouched picture of reality, often an idyll, in which the public discussion of social matters is evident only materially or not at all.

Moderneja ryijyjä, metritavaraa ja käsityötä : Tekstiilitaide ja nykyaikaistuva taideteollisuus Suomessa maailmansotien välisenä aikana

Modern ryijys, fabric by the yard and handicrafts. Finnish textile art and modernizing applied art during the inter-war years Textile art was in the 1920s and 1930s in the front rank of Finnish applied art and design. Modern ryijys, tapestries and fabrics by the yard by contemporary textile artists were on show in Finland and abroad. Textile art had also become interesting commercially, especially in interior textiles of modern homes. The research uses sources of the Ornamo Association of Decorative Artists, for example the Ornamo year books published from 1927, the Finnish Society of Crafts and Design and the country s only school of applied arts, the Central School of Arts and Crafts and the Museum of Applied Arts maintained by the society and also the national specialist organisation the Friends of Finnish Handicraft. It also refers to the magazines Käsiteollisuus and Kotiliesi. The art historical dissertation studies the renaissance of weaving art of the inter-war years in Finland. It problematizes the relation of the succesfull and appreciated textile art to the concept of breakthrough of Modernism (Functionalism). With the material from textile artists activities it questions the prevailing idea of slow modernization of Finnish applied art and design and challenges the polarization of craft and industry in the discourses of Modernisms of design. The public discussions about modernization of design and applied art where textile art and especially the ryijy got sometimes into difficult positions are interpreted as power struggles. After taking independence in 1917 the Finnish tradition of ryijy rugs was set as a symbol of the original culture of the young nation. The research studies the development of the so called art ryijy and the notions and meanings of hand weaving in the national context and also in relation to contemporary events in international applied art and design. It highlights the continuity of hand crafted production of textiles and the strong position of textile artists working in this field. The research opens new perspectives to Finnish textile artists by showing their activities as entrepreneurs in their own weaving studios or design studios and referring to their many relations and functions as pattern designers and educators in the growing handicraft industries.

Timing of fungicide applications for control of husk spot caused by Pseudocercospora macadamiae in macadamia

Pseudocercospora macadamiae is an important pathogen of macadamia in Australia, causing a disease known as husk spot. Growers strive to control the disease with a number of carbendazim and copper treatments. The aim of this study was to consider the macadamia fruit developmental stage at which fungicide application is most effective against husk spot, and whether application of copper-only applications at full-size fruit developmental stage toward the end of the season contributed to effective disease control. Fungicides were applied to macadamia trees at four developmental stages in three orchards in two subsequent production seasons. The effects of the treatments on disease incidence and severity were quantified using area under disease progress curve (AUDPC) and logistic regression models. Although disease incidence varied between cultivars, incidence and severity on cv. A16 showed consistent differences between the treatments. Most significant reduction in husk spot incidence occurred when spraying commenced at match-head sized-fruit developmental stage. All treatments significantly reduced husk spot incidence and severity compared with the untreated controls, and a significant positive linear relationship (R2 = 73%) between AUDPC and severity showed that timing of the first fungicide application is important for effective disease control. Application of fungicide at full-size fruit stage reduced disease incidence but had no impact on premature fruit drop.

ESTIMATION OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN AN EXPERIMENTAL WATERSHED IN A DECIDUOUS FOREST OF SOUTH INDIA

Forested areas play a dominant role in the global hydrological cycle. Evapotranspiration is a dominant component most of the time catching up with the rainfall. Though there are sophisticated methods which are available for its estimation, a simple reliable tool is needed so that a good budgeting could be made. Studies have established that evapotranspiration in forested areas is much higher than in agricultural areas. Latitude, type of forests, climate and geological characteristics also add to the complexity of its estimation. Few studies have compared different methods of evapotranspiration on forested watersheds in semi arid tropical forests. In this paper a comparative study of different methods of estimation of evapotranspiration is made with reference to the actual measurements made using all parameter climatological station data of a small deciduous forested watershed of Mulehole (area of 4.5 km2 ), South India. Potential evapotranspiration (ETo) was calculated using ten physically based and empirical methods. Actual evapotranspiration (AET) has been calculated through computation of water balance through SWAT model. The Penman-Montieth method has been used as a benchmark to compare the estimates arrived at using various methods. The AET calculated shows good agreement with the curve for evapotranspiration for forests worldwide. Error estimates have been made with respect to Penman-Montieth method. This study could give an idea of the errors involved whenever methods with limited data are used and also show the use indirect methods in estimation of Evapotranspiration which is more suitable for regional scale studies.