Essays on bounded rationality: Individual decision and strategic interaction

Economics is a social science which, therefore, focuses on people and on the decisions they make, be it in an individual context, or in group situations. It studies human choices, in face of needs to be fulfilled, and a limited amount of resources to fulfill them. For a long time, there was a convergence between the normative and positive views of human behavior, in that the ideal and predicted decisions of agents in economic models were entangled in one single concept. That is, it was assumed that the best that could be done in each situation was exactly the choice that would prevail. Or, at least, that the facts that economics needed to explain could be understood in the light of models in which individual agents act as if they are able to make ideal decisions. However, in the last decades, the complexity of the environment in which economic decisions are made and the limits on the ability of agents to deal with it have been recognized, and incorporated into models of decision making in what came to be known as the bounded rationality paradigm. This was triggered by the incapacity of the unboundedly rationality paradigm to explain observed phenomena and behavior. This thesis contributes to the literature in three different ways. Chapter 1 is a survey on bounded rationality, which gathers and organizes the contributions to the field since Simon (1955) first recognized the necessity to account for the limits on human rationality. The focus of the survey is on theoretical work rather than the experimental literature which presents evidence of actual behavior that differs from what classic rationality predicts. The general framework is as follows. Given a set of exogenous variables, the economic agent needs to choose an element from the choice set that is avail- able to him, in order to optimize the expected value of an objective function (assuming his preferences are representable by such a function). If this problem is too complex for the agent to deal with, one or more of its elements is simplified. Each bounded rationality theory is categorized according to the most relevant element it simplifes. Chapter 2 proposes a novel theory of bounded rationality. Much in the same fashion as Conlisk (1980) and Gabaix (2014), we assume that thinking is costly in the sense that agents have to pay a cost for performing mental operations. In our model, if they choose not to think, such cost is avoided, but they are left with a single alternative, labeled the default choice. We exemplify the idea with a very simple model of consumer choice and identify the concept of isofin curves, i.e., sets of default choices which generate the same utility net of thinking cost. Then, we apply the idea to a linear symmetric Cournot duopoly, in which the default choice can be interpreted as the most natural quantity to be produced in the market. We find that, as the thinking cost increases, the number of firms thinking in equilibrium decreases. More interestingly, for intermediate levels of thinking cost, an equilibrium in which one of the firms chooses the default quantity and the other best responds to it exists, generating asymmetric choices in a symmetric model. Our model is able to explain well-known regularities identified in the Cournot experimental literature, such as the adoption of different strategies by players (Huck et al. , 1999), the inter temporal rigidity of choices (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003) and the dispersion of quantities in the context of di cult decision making (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003). Chapter 3 applies a model of bounded rationality in a game-theoretic set- ting to the well-known turnout paradox in large elections, pivotal probabilities vanish very quickly and no one should vote, in sharp contrast with the ob- served high levels of turnout. Inspired by the concept of rhizomatic thinking, introduced by Bravo-Furtado & Côrte-Real (2009a), we assume that each per- son is self-delusional in the sense that, when making a decision, she believes that a fraction of the people who support the same party decides alike, even if no communication is established between them. This kind of belief simplifies the decision of the agent, as it reduces the number of players he believes to be playing against { it is thus a bounded rationality approach. Studying a two-party first-past-the-post election with a continuum of self-delusional agents, we show that the turnout rate is positive in all the possible equilibria, and that it can be as high as 100%. The game displays multiple equilibria, at least one of which entails a victory of the bigger party. The smaller one may also win, provided its relative size is not too small; more self-delusional voters in the minority party decreases this threshold size. Our model is able to explain some empirical facts, such as the possibility that a close election leads to low turnout (Geys, 2006), a lower margin of victory when turnout is higher (Geys, 2006) and high turnout rates favoring the minority (Bernhagen & Marsh, 1997).

A comunicação intercultural ao nível da intervenção pedagógica no ensino do português como língua estrangeira a alunos chineses na China

A globalização aproxima os povos: o mundo chinês e o mundo português nunca tiveram uma relação tão estreita como a atual. Apesar de os portugueses terem ido os primeiros ocidentais a entrar na China com a chegada de Jorge Álvares a uma ilha chinesa, em 1513, e os últimos ocidentais a deixar o governo de um território chinês, com a transferência da administração portuguesa de Macau para a China a 20 de dezembro de 1999, nunca haviam sido registados, nos últimos séculos, grandes contatos ou intercâmbios comerciais e culturais entre a China e Portugal e entre o mundo chinês e o mundo lusófono, em comparação com os contatos entre o mundo chinês e outros mundos ocidentais: como o inglês, o francês, o alemão e o espanhol. Os objetivos gerais desta investigação são três: 1 - Reconhecer o papel do desenvolvimento da competência omunicativa intercultural no contexto do ensino-aprendizagem do português como LE na China. 2 - Promover o desenvolvimento da competência comunicativa intercultural dos alunos chineses no processo de aprendizagem da língua portuguesa na China. 3 - Analisar os métodos pedagógicos e de integração curricular para apoiar e desenvolver um ensino mais eficaz do português como LE na China. O desenvolvimento do nosso trabalho articula-se em duas áreas científicas: Ciências da Linguagem e Ciências da Educação. A abordagem metodológica utilizada é o estudo de caso, com recolha de dados primários realizada através de questionários, entrevistas e observação participante em profundidade, que permitiu a confirmação e/ou refutação das hipóteses levantadas, privilegiando a metodologia qualitativa. Os resultados permitem estabelecer uma relação significativa, do ponto de vista pedagógico, entre a comunicação intercultural na educação e as práticas pedagógicas desenvolvidas no ensino do português como língua estrangeira na China. Contudo e de acordo com a nossa pesquisa, o maior problema que impede as práticas pedagógicas para desenvolver as competências comunicativas no ensino, é a falta de materiais didáticos com estrutura para elaborar um programa de atividades coerentes e complementares nas aulas.

Peer interaction and learning opportunities in cohesive and less cohesive L2 classrooms

The present study investigates peer to peer oral interaction in two task based language teaching classrooms, one of which was a self-declared cohesive group, and the other a self- declared less cohesive group, both at B1 level. It studies how learners talk cohesion into being and considers how this talk leads to learning opportunities in these groups. The study was classroom-based and was carried out over the period of an academic year. Research was conducted in the classrooms and the tasks were part of regular class work. The research was framed within a sociocognitive perspective of second language learning and data came from a number of sources, namely questionnaires, interviews and audio recorded talk of dyads, triads and groups of four students completing a total of eight oral tasks. These audio recordings were transcribed and analysed qualitatively for interactions which encouraged a positive social dimension and behaviours which led to learning opportunities, using conversation analysis. In addition, recordings were analysed quantitatively for learning opportunities and quantity and quality of language produced. Results show that learners in both classes exhibited multiple behaviours in interaction which could promote a positive social dimension, although behaviours which could discourage positive affect amongst group members were also found. Analysis of interactions also revealed the many ways in which learners in both the cohesive and less cohesive class created learning opportunities. Further qualitative analysis of these interactions showed that a number of factors including how learners approach a task, the decisions they make at zones of interactional transition and the affective relationship between participants influence the amount of learning opportunities created, as well as the quality and quantity of language produced. The main conclusion of the study is that it is not the cohesive nature of the group as a whole but the nature of the relationship between the individual members of the small group completing the task which influences the effectiveness of oral interaction for learning.This study contributes to our understanding of the way in which learners individualise the learning space and highlights the situated nature of language learning. It shows how individuals interact with each other and the task, and how talk in interaction changes moment-by-moment as learners react to the ‘here and now’ of the classroom environment.

Analysis of physicochemical interaction between the components of asphalt mixtures with rubber

Tese de Doutoramento em Engenharia Civil

Redes sociais como ferramenta para a divulgação de ações de responsabilidade social corporativa: o estudo de caso da TOMS

Relatório de estágio de mestrado em Ciências da Comunicação (área de especialização em Publicidade e Relações Públicas)

Infants’ behavioral and physiological profile and mother–infant interaction

This study aims to (a) identify and profile groups of infants according to their behavioral and physiological characteristics, considering their neurobehavioral organization, social withdrawal behavior, and endocrine reactivity to stress, and to (b) analyze group differences in the quality of mother–infant interaction. Ninety seven 8-week-old infants were examined using the Neonatal Behavioral Assessment Scale and the Alarm Distress Baby Scale. Cortisol levels were measured both before and after routine inoculation between 8 and 12 weeks. At 12 to 16 weeks mother–infant interaction was assessed using the Global Rating Scales of Mother–Infant Interaction. Three groups of infants were identified: (a) ‘‘withdrawn’’; (b) ‘‘extroverted’’; (c) ‘‘underaroused.’’ Differences between them were found regarding both infant and mother behaviors in the interaction and the overall quality of mother–infant interaction. The identification of behavioral and physiological profiles in infants is an important step in the study of developmental pathways.

Careers, identities and professionalization. A study on doctors about their social representations related to the labor market today and its foreseeable future

This study is in line with the analyses of university and working career in their interaction in relation with conditioning factors. It comprises two central issues: the issue of identity bound to the issue of professionalization within the domain of training and employment. Nowadays, professionalization of the individuals, inside a troubled occupational world, demands the implementation of mechanisms favoring the development of both the individuals and the institution in which they work. All this has an impact at the local, regional and even national levels. Three levels of analysis interplay from a sui generis perspective: macro-meso-micro-macro (Aparicio, 2005; 2007a; 2007b, 2013a, 2014, 2015 b, d – See the Three- Dimensional Spiral of Sense Theory). The aim was to be aware of the doctors’ representations regarding the value of such degree under the present “degree devaluation”, and its impact on the professional future as well as on the core issues of the labor market which need urgent measures with a view to a belter interaction between the two systems. The methodology used was quanti-qualitative (semi-structured questionnaires, interviews, and hierarchical evocations). The population consisted of doctors (2005-2012) from the National University of Cuyo, in Argentina. The results helped us understand the nucleus of such representations and the peripheral aspects by career and institution, thus revealing professional and disciplinary identities. The professional identities show the situated needs in terms of professionalization within the different contexts and, particularly, within the labor market.

O trabalho coletivo do Departamento de Educação Física e a gestão da ecologia das aulas : a integração da agenda social dos alunos nas decisões de planeamento e ação dos professores

O estudo das condições que potenciam o ensino-aprendizagem em educação física precisa de considerar mais consistentemente e explicitamente as evidências do mesossistema estabelecido entre as ecologias do trabalho colaborativo do grupo disciplinar e as das suas aulas. Especificamente, incita-se à compreensão como a negociação integradora do sistema social dos alunos pode ser potenciada pelo grupo disciplinar. Para alcançar essa compreensão articularam-se os modelos das comunidades de aprendizagem profissional e da ecologia da aula, através da bioecologia do desenvolvimento humano. Conduziu-se um desenho de estudo de caso longitudinal integrado, triangulando métodos, fontes e dados de um grupo disciplinar de educação física com qualidade colaborativa. Simultaneamente, observaram-se duas ecologias de aulas de educação física, diferenciadas pelas disposições de negociação dos respetivos professores, detalhando paralelamente os perfis de agenda social dos alunos para essas ecologias. Os resultados permitem salientar a interação das propriedades Pessoa-Contexto-Processo-Tempo como condições mesossistémicas favorecedoras da integração do sistema social dos alunos, nomeadamente: as caraterísticas do grupo como comunidade de aprendizagem profissional focada na integração; a interação macrossistémica e a alternância intencional cíclica grupo-aula; e a articulação entre o desenvolvimento curricular colaborativo e a partilha e produção de conhecimento em espirais curriculares plurianuais e anuais. Estas condições refletiram-se nas ecologias das aulas como semelhanças tendencialmente integradoras do sistema social na instrução e na organização. Todavia, também emergiram particularidades em cada ecologia traduzidas numa congruência mais consistente entre os perfis de agenda social encontrados para o envolvimento integrador, por associação às diferenças de alinhamento instrucional na negociação pelos professores. Este estudo lança implicações para a investigação relacionadas com a verificação e aprofundamento das condições mesossistémicas identificadas. Paralelamente, a prática profissional de professores e de formadores de professores encontra implicações sobre a melhoria da qualidade colaborativa profissional para promover continuamente melhores experiências de ensino-aprendizagem da educação física nos microssistemas aqui analisados.

Insect-musicians and cricket champions of China / by Berthold Laufer, Curator of Anthropology. 12 plates in photogravure.

no.22(1927)

Male-female interaction during breeding and non-breeding seasons in Akodon azarae (Rodentia, Muridae)

Dyad encounters between male and female adults of Akodon azarae (Fischer, 1829) were analyzed by means of observational techniques in a natural closure during the breeding and non-breeding seasons. The animals were held in observation during 21 days, with daily 15-minute recordings of interindividual separation distance, relative displacements, characteristics of the male-female interaction, copulation, and construction and exclusive or shared use of nests by each pair. The couples, which bred successfully, showed, on average, the longest separation distance between male and female allowed by the closure. During the first two weeks of gestation the females exhibited more displacements than their respective mates did. The male-pregnant female encounters were significantly more aggressive than those recorded between pairs which did not breed successfully. During the non-breeding season a shorter average distance between individuals and a frequent use of nests shared by the pair were recorded. The results obtained are discussed within the framework of the social system of A. azarae.

Understanding Interactions in Social Networks and Committees

While much of the literature on cross section dependence has focused mainly on estimation of the regression coefficients in the underlying model, estimation and inferences on the magnitude and strength of spill-overs and interactions has been largely ignored. At the same time, such inferences are important in many applications, not least because they have structural interpretations and provide useful interpretation and structural explanation for the strength of any interactions. In this paper we propose GMM methods designed to uncover underlying (hidden) interactions in social networks and committees. Special attention is paid to the interval censored regression model. Our methods are applied to a study of committee decision making within the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee.

When Do We Learn to Cooperate? The Role of Social Learning in Social Dilemmas

In this paper, I look at the interaction between social learning and cooperative behavior. I model this using a social dilemma game with publicly observed sequential actions and asymmetric information about pay offs. I find that some informed agents in this model act, individually and without collusion, to conceal the privately optimal action. Because the privately optimal action is socially costly the behavior of informed agents can lead to a Pareto improvement in a social dilemma. In my model I show that it is possible to get cooperative behavior if information is restricted to a small but non-zero proportion of the population. Moreover, such cooperative behavior occurs in a finite setting where it is public knowledge which agent will act last. The proportion of cooperative agents within the population can be made arbitrarily close to 1 by increasing the finite number of agents playing the game. Finally, I show that under a broad set of conditions that it is a Pareto improvement on a corner value, in the ex-ante welfare sense, for an interior proportion of the population to be informed.

The normative dimension of social life from a second-person perspective

This thesis argues that insofar as we want to account for the normative dimension of social life, we must be careful to avoid construing that normative dimension in such a way as to exclude that which the second-person perspective reveals is important to social life and our ability to participate in it.¦The second-person perspective reveals that social life ought to be understood as a mix or balance of the regular and the irregular, where, in addition, those one interacts with are always to some extent experienced as other in a way that is neither immediately, nor perhaps ultimately, understandable. For persons to be able to participate in social life, conceived of in this way, they must have abilities that allow them to be, to some extent, hesitant and tentative in their relations with others, and thus tolerant of ambiguity, uncertainty and unpredictability, and responsive to and capable of learning from the otherness of others in the course of interacting with them.¦Incorporating the second-person perspective means we have to make some changes to the way we think about the normative in general, and the normative dimension of social life in particular. It does not mean giving up on the distinction between the normative and the regular - that continues to be fundamentally important but it does mean not excluding, as part of social life and as worthy of explanation, all that which is irregular. A radical way of putting it would be to say that there must be a sense in which the irregular is part of the normative. A less radical way, and the way adopted by this thesis, is to say that any account of the normative dimension of social life must not be such as to exclude the importance of irregularity from social life. This will mean 1) not characterising conventions, norms and rules as determinants of appropriateness and inappropriateness; 2) not thinking of them as necessary; 3) not thinking of them as necessarily governing minds; and 4) not thinking of them as necessarily shared.¦-¦L'argument principal de la thèse est que, pour rendre compte de la dimension normative de la vie sociale, il faut veiller à ne pas exclure la perspective de la deuxième personne - une perspective importante pour comprendre la vie sociale et la capacité requise pour y participer.¦Cette perspective nous permet d'imaginer la vie sociale comme un mélange ou un équilibre entre le régulier et l'irrégulier, l'interaction entre des individus pouvant être appréhendée comme l'expérience de chaque personne avec «l'autre» d'une manière qui n'est pas immédiatement compréhensible, et qui ne peut pas, peut-être, être ultimement comprise. Pour participer à la vie sociale, l'on doit avoir la capacité de rester hésitant et «réactif» dans ses relations avec les autres, de rester ouvert à leur altérité et de tolérer l'ambiguïté, l'incertitude et l'imprévisibilité des interactions sociales.¦Adopter une perspective «à la deuxième personne» conduit à une autre manière de penser la normativité en général, et la dimension normative de la vie sociale en particulier. Cela ne veut pas dire qu'il faut abandonner la distinction entre le normatif et le régulier - une distinction qui garde une importance fondamentale - mais qu'il faut reconnaître l'irrégulier comme faisant partie de la vie sociale et comme étant digne, en tant que tel, d'être expliqué. Une conception radicale pourrait même concevoir l'irrégulier comme faisant partie intégrante de la normativité. Une approche moins radicale, qui est celle adoptée dans cette thèse, est de dire que tout compte-rendu de la dimension normative de la vie sociale doit prendre en considération l'importance de l'irrégularité dans la vie sociale. Une telle approche implique que les conventions, normes et règles (1) ne déterminent pas ce qui est approprié ou inapproprié; (2) ne sont pas toujours nécessaires ; (3) ne gouvernent pas le fonctionnement de l'esprit ; et (4) ne sont pas nécessairement partagées.

The Hindu Model of Social Organization and the bhakti Movement : the Example of Vallabha's sampradāya

(Résumé de l'ouvrage) This volume addresses research topics within the field of Bhakti literature, the devotional poetry and other compositions of devotional character in the earlier literature of the modern South Asian languages. Its papers range from the roots of the Bhakti tradition in the early history of Krsna to its modern adaptations in nineteenth- and twentieth-century culture. Geographically, they span Bengal to Sind, Panjab to Maharashtra. Contemporary study of the modern Indian languages has broadened the scope of scholarship to consider today's Hindu attitudes, and those of a mixed society, against the background of ancient culture. Here, materials in six modern Asian languages are discussed: Bengali, Gujarati, Hindi in its main literary forms, Marathi, Panjabi and Sindhi; with assessment also of material in Sanskrit, Arabic and Chinese. In addition to studies of literary (and orally transmitted) works in the Krsna or Rama traditions, and of Sufi compositions and their interpretation, there are papers on the early history of sacred sites, the emergence of the religion of Rama, later religious formulations throughout the subcontinent, and the interaction of the Islamic and the Hindu.