Monte Carlo Hypothesis Testing with The Sharpe Ratio

The purpose of this master thesis was to perform simulations that involve use of random number while testing hypotheses especially on two samples populations being compared weather by their means, variances or Sharpe ratios. Specifically, we simulated some well known distributions by Matlab and check out the accuracy of an hypothesis testing. Furthermore, we went deeper and check what could happen once the bootstrapping method as described by Effrons is applied on the simulated data. In addition to that, one well known RobustSharpe hypothesis testing stated in the paper of Ledoit and Wolf was applied to measure the statistical significance performance between two investment founds basing on testing weather there is a statistically significant difference between their Sharpe Ratios or not. We collected many literatures about our topic and perform by Matlab many simulated random numbers as possible to put out our purpose; As results we come out with a good understanding that testing are not always accurate; for instance while testing weather two normal distributed random vectors come from the same normal distribution. The Jacque-Berra test for normality showed that for the normal random vector r1 and r2, only 94,7% and 95,7% respectively are coming from normal distribution in contrast 5,3% and 4,3% failed to shown the truth already known; but when we introduce the bootstrapping methods by Effrons while estimating pvalues where the hypothesis decision is based, the accuracy of the test was 100% successful. From the above results the reports showed that bootstrapping methods while testing or estimating some statistics should always considered because at most cases the outcome are accurate and errors are minimized in the computation. Also the RobustSharpe test which is known to use one of the bootstrapping methods, studentised one, were applied first on different simulated data including distribution of many kind and different shape secondly, on real data, Hedge and Mutual funds. The test performed quite well to agree with the existence of statistical significance difference between their Sharpe ratios as described in the paper of Ledoit andWolf.

Pk-yritysten ja korkeakoulujen (teknologia) T&K&I yhteistyön kehittäminen teollisuuden toimialoilla

The aim of this work is to develop entrepreneurship in university technology side. The means of SMEs is made in collaboration with the research development and innovation projects. At the same time supporting and enabling the growth of SMEs, the internationalization of higher education and increase student’s employability in SMEs. The aim is to create new startup companies with the help of co-operation both SMEs and universities, especially assist companies find the successor generation of change by improving interaction between the parties. The new growth oriented entrepreneurial business creation with help of SMEs will be seen more business supporting and opening more opportunities. Portfolio Entrepreneurship is a form of the company’s growth, even the size of company does not change so much. Portfolio Entrepreneurship is an alternative for entrepreneurs which do have possibilities to expand, but they do like keep it as family business. Variety can be seen in expansion if the SMEs have common interest to do so. Co-made projects, between SMEs and universities, are seen to be significantly affecting the wellbeing of society as a whole, and eve international level. Co-operation is considered to be also affected the quality of learning and teachers’ professional development. higher education supports the change of the supports to innovation when it is done with SMEs. Research material has been collected by interviewing the experts, who have already distinguished themselves in their field. Problem focused interviews as method gave the ways how the university students and SMEs can proceed and promote on industrial sector.

Observations of Industry Momentum Effect in European Equity Indices

This thesis examines the existence and nature of momentum effect in European equity indices. A set of predefined indicators is used to compose momentum portfolios and different holding periods are used to test the strategies over variable time periods as well as under different economical conditions. The data consists of daily closing prices of STOXX Europe 600 index and its 18 super sector indices. Over the study period we follow the performances of a long position in the Winner portfolio, a position in the market neutral zero-cost portfolio and also a position in the risk-controlled zero-cost portfolio. The investment ratio of the risk-controlled zero-cost portfolio is negatively correlated with the realized market volatility. The results show that momentum effect is present in European industries and is most prominent in the short-term. Indicators that are based on short-term performance tend predict the over- and underperformers for the 1-month holding period more reliably than any other indicator/holding period combination. The examination of the strategies under different economical conditions shows that the market neutral approach can create significant returns in times of recession but in times of economic boom the long position in Winner portfolio outperforms the market neutral portfolio by an extensive margin.

Disruptive innovations at the bottom of the pyramid : can they impact the sustainability of today´s top companies?

Due to the different dynamics required for organizations to serve the emerging market which contains billions of people at the bottom of the pyramid (BOP) coupled with the increasing desire for organizations to grow and be more multinational, organizations need to continually innovate. However, the tendency for large and established companies to ignore the BOP market and rather focus on existing markets, gives an indication of the existence of a vulnerability that potentially disruptive innovations from the BOP will not be recognized in good time for a counter measure. This can be deduced from the fact that good management practice advocates that managers should learn and listen to their customers. Therefore majority of the large existing companies continually focus on their main customer/market with sustaining innovations which leaves aspiring new entrants with an underserved BOP market to experiment with. With the aid of research interviews and an agent-based model (ABM) simulation, this thesis examines the attributes of BOP innovations that can qualify them as disruptive and the possibilities of tangible disruptive innovations arising from the bottom of the pyramid and their underlying drivers. The thesis Furthermore, examines the associated impact of such innovations on the future sustainability of established large companies that are operating in the developed world, particularly those with a primary focus which is targeted towards the market at the top of the pyramid (TOP). Additionally, with the use of a scenario planning model, the research provides an evaluation of the possible evolution and potential sustainability impacts that could emerge, from the interplay of innovations at the two pyramidal market levels and the chosen market focus of organizations – TOP or BOP. Using four scenario quadrants, the thesis demonstrates the resulting possibilities from the interaction between the rate of innovations and the segment focused on by organizations with disruptive era characterizing the paradigm shift quadrant. Furthermore, a mathematical model and two theoretical propositions are developed for further research. As recommendations, the thesis also extends the ambidextrous organizational theory, business model innovation and portfolio diversification as plausible recommendations to limit a catastrophic impact, resulting from disruptive innovations.

Pricing anomalies in the Finnish stock market

The aim of this thesis is to examine whether the pricing anomalies exists in the Finnish stock markets by comparing the performance of quantile portfolios that are formed on the basis of either individual valuation ratios, composite value measures or combined value and momentum indicators. All the research papers included in the thesis show evidence of value anomalies in the Finnish stock markets. In the first paper, the sample of stocks over the 1991-2006 period is divided into quintile portfolios based on four individual valuation ratios (i.e., E/P, EBITDA/EV, B/P, and S/P) and three hybrids of them (i.e. composite value measures). The results show the superiority of composite value measures as selection criterion for value stocks, particularly when EBITDA/EV is employed as earnings multiple. The main focus of the second paper is on the impact of the holding period length on performance of value strategies. As an extension to the first paper, two more individual ratios (i.e. CF/P and D/P) are included in the comparative analysis. The sample of stocks over 1993- 2008 period is divided into tercile portfolios based on six individual valuation ratios and three hybrids of them. The use of either dividend yield criterion or one of three composite value measures being examined results in best value portfolio performance according to all performance metrics used. Parallel to the findings of many international studies, our results from performance comparisons indicate that for the sample data employed, the yearly reformation of portfolios is not necessarily optimal in order to maximally gain from the value premium. Instead, the value investor may extend his holding period up to 5 years without any decrease in long-term portfolio performance. The same holds also for the results of the third paper that examines the applicability of data envelopment analysis (DEA) method in discriminating the undervalued stocks from overvalued ones. The fourth paper examines the added value of combining price momentum with various value strategies. Taking account of the price momentum improves the performance of value portfolios in most cases. The performance improvement is greatest for value portfolios that are formed on the basis of the 3-composite value measure which consists of D/P, B/P and EBITDA/EV ratios. The risk-adjusted performance can be enhanced further by following 130/30 long-short strategy in which the long position of value winner stocks is leveraged by 30 percentages while simultaneously selling short glamour loser stocks by the same amount. Average return of the long-short position proved to be more than double stock market average coupled with the volatility decrease. The fifth paper offers a new approach to combine value and momentum indicators into a single portfolio-formation criterion using different variants of DEA models. The results throughout the 1994-2010 sample period shows that the top-tercile portfolios outperform both the market portfolio and the corresponding bottom-tercile portfolios. In addition, the middle-tercile portfolios also outperform the comparable bottom-tercile portfolios when DEA models are used as a basis for stock classification criteria. To my knowledge, such strong performance differences have not been reported in earlier peer-reviewed studies that have employed the comparable quantile approach of dividing stocks into portfolios. Consistently with the previous literature, the division of the full sample period into bullish and bearish periods reveals that the top-quantile DEA portfolios lose far less of their value during the bearish conditions than do the corresponding bottom portfolios. The sixth paper extends the sample period employed in the fourth paper by one year (i.e. 1993- 2009) covering also the first years of the recent financial crisis. It contributes to the fourth paper by examining the impact of the stock market conditions on the main results. Consistently with the fifth paper, value portfolios lose much less of their value during bearish conditions than do stocks on average. The inclusion of a momentum criterion somewhat adds value to an investor during bullish conditions, but this added value turns to negative during bearish conditions. During bear market periods some of the value loser portfolios perform even better than their value winner counterparts. Furthermore, the results show that the recent financial crisis has reduced the added value of using combinations of momentum and value indicators as portfolio formation criteria. However, since the stock markets have historically been bullish more often than bearish, the combination of the value and momentum criteria has paid off to the investor despite the fact that its added value during bearish periods is negative, on an average.

Kansainvälisen osakeportfolion hajauttamishyödyt eri suhdannesykleissä

Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena on selvittää onko kansainvälisen hajauttamisen hyöty heikentynyt globaalisti ajan kuluessa. Tutkimusongelmaan pyritään löytämään vastaus korrelaatioanalyysillä sekä Box M-testillä. Teoreettisena viitekehyksenä käytetään Markowitzin luomaa modernia portfolioteoriaa, kansainväliseen hajautukseen liittyvää kirjallisuutta sekä aiheesta aiemmin tehtyjä tutkimuksia. Empiirisenä tutkimusaineistona käytetään Thomson Datastreamin tuottamia kokonaistuottoindeksejä. Indeksit ovat yhdeksältä eri markkina-alueelta ja 30 eri maasta. Maat on jaoteltu 18 kehittyneeseen ja 12 kehittyvään maahan.kaikki tutkielmassa käytetyt tuottoaikasarjat ovat dollarimääräisiä. Tutkimusaineisto kattaa vuodet 1995-2009 sisältäen 783 viikottaista havaintoa, kullekin tuottoindeksille. Tutkimustulosten mukaan kansainvälisen hajauttamisen edut ovat suuremmat sijoitettaessa kehittyville markkinoille, kuin pelkästään kehittyneille markkinoille sijoitettaessa. Tutkimusperiodin alkupuolella kehittyvillä markkinoilla on ollut saatavissa huomattavasti enemmän hajautushyötyä, mutta suhteellinenhyöty suhteessa kehittyneisiin markkinoihin vähenee tultaessa lähemmäs nykyhetkeä. Korrelaatiot ovat nousseet koko ajanjaksolla, mutta on myös ollut osaperiodeja, jolloin korrelaatiokertoimet ovat laskeneet.

Interdependence of Emerging Eastern European stock markets

One of the main developments in the global economy during the past decades has been the growth of emerging economies. Projections for their long-term growth, changes in the investment climate, corporate transparency and demography point to an increasing role for these emerging economies in the global economy. Today, emerging economies are usually considered as financial markets offering opportunities for high returns, good risk diversification and improved return-to-risk ratios. However, researchers have noted that these advantages may be in decline because of the increasing market integration. Nevertheless, it is likely that certain financial markets and specific sectors will remain partially segmented and somewhat insulated from the global economy for the year to come. This doctoral dissertation investigates several stock markets in Emerging Eastern Europe (EEE), including the ones in Russia, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Slovenia. The objective is to analyze the returns and financial risks in these emerging markets from international investor’s point of view. This study also examines the segmentation/integration of these financial markets and the possibilities to diversify and hedge financial risk. The dissertation is divided into two parts. The first includes a review of the theoretical background for the articles and a review of the literature on EEE stock markets. It includes an overview of the methodology and research design applied in the analysis and a summary of articles from the second part of this dissertation and their main findings. The second part consists of four research publications. This work contributes to studies on emerging stock markets in four ways. First, it adds to the body of research on the pricing of risk, providing new empirical evidence about partial stock market segmentation in EEE. The results suggest that the aggregate emerging market risk is a relevant driver for stock market returns and that this market risk can be used to price financial instruments and forecast their performance. Second, it contributes to the empirical research on the integration of stock markets, asset prices and exchange rates by identifying the relationships between these markets through volatility and asset pricing. The results show that certain sectors of stock markets in EEE are not as integrated as others. For example, the Polish consumer goods sector, the Hungarian telecommunications sector, and the Czech financial sector are somewhat isolated from their counterparts elsewhere in Europe. Nevertheless, an analysis of the impact of EU accession in 2004 on stock markets suggests that most of the EEE markets are becoming increasingly integrated with the global markets. Third, this thesis complements the scientific literature in the field of shock and volatility spillovers by examining the mechanism of spillover distribution among the EU and EEE countries. The results illustrate that spillovers in emerging markets are mostly from a foreign exchange to the stock markets. Moreover, the results show that the effects of external shocks on stock markets have increased after the enlargement of the EU in 2004. Finally, this study is unique because it analyzes the effects of foreign macroeconomic news on geographically closely related countries. The results suggest that the effects of macroeconomic announcements on volatility are significant and have effect that varies across markets and their sectors. Moreover, the results show that the foreign macroeconomic news releases, somewhat surprisingly, have a greater effect on the EEE markets than the local macroeconomic news. This dissertation has a number of implications for the industry and for practitioners. It analyses financial risk associated with investing in Emerging Eastern Europe. Investors may use this information to construct and optimize investment portfolios. Moreover, this dissertation provides insights for investors and portfolio managers considering asset allocation to protect value or obtain higher returns. The results have also implications for asset pricing and portfolio selection in light of macroeconomic news releases.

Ride Comfort of Automatic Elevator Doors

Ride comfort of elevators is one of the quality criteria valued by customers. The objective of this master’s thesis was to develop a process to measure the ride comfort of automatic elevator doors. The door’s operational noise was chosen as a focus area and other kinds of noise for example caused by pressure differences in the elevator shaft were excluded. The thesis includes a theory part and an empirical part. In the first part theories of quality management, measuring of quality and acoustics are presented. In the empirical part the developed ride comfort measuring process is presented, different operational noise sources are analyzed and an example is presented of how this measuring process can be used to guide product development. To measure ride comfort a process was developed where a two-room silent room was used as a measuring environment and EVA-625 device was used in the actual measuring of door noise. A-weighted decibels were used to scale noise pressure levels and the door movement was monitored with an accelerometer. This enabled the connection between the noise and noise sources which in turn helped to find potential ride comfort improvement ideas. The noise isolation class was also measured with the Ivie-measuring system. Measuring of door ride comfort gives feedback to product development and to managing current product portfolio. Measuring enables the continuous improvement of elevator door ride comfort. The measuring results can also be used to back up marketing arguments for doors.

Hedge-rahastojen menestyksen pysyvyyden empiirinen tarkastelu sijoittajan näkökulmasta

This study examines performance persistence of hedge funds from investor's point of view and look at the methods by which an investor could choose the successful hedge funds to the portfolio. This study was used the data from HFI & Tremont databases on period 1998-2007. In this study used the 36-month combination (24-month selection and 12-month prediction periods). As the research methods used the Sharpe index, raw returns, MVR (mean variance ratio), GSC-clustering, the SDI index and the new combination of metrics. The evaluation criterions of the results used the volatility, excess returns and the Sharpe index. This study compared different results from the 7 time series with each other, and commenting the problems on a portfolio loss of funds.

Diversification benefits for a Finnish non-industrial private forest investor: Real Estate Investment Trusts in the USA

This thesis examined both domestic and international forest investment options for a Finnish non-industrial private forest investor. The focus was on forest-based investment instruments. The influence of movements of currency exchange rates on foreign returns were also taken into account. Annual data from 1995 to 2011 was used. The main portfolio optimization model in this study was the Mean-Variance model but the results were also validated by using the Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall models. In addition, the exchange rate risk hedging was established by using one-week-maturity forward contracts. The results suggested that 75 % of the total wealth should be invested in Finnish private forests and the rest, 25 %, to a US REIT, in this case Rayonier. With hedging, the total return on the portfolio was 7.21 % (NIPF 5.3%) with the volatility of 6.63 % (NIPF 7.9%). Taxation supported US investments in this case. As a conclusion, a Finnish private forest investor may, as evidenced, benefit in diversifying a portfolio using REITs in the US.

Knowledge, processes and relationships in organizational change: Understanding how to facilitate management of intellectual capital in diverse organization structures and cultures.

This study examined relationships of organizational dependencies, change management and developed intellectual knowledge resources, in different intellectual capital based development programs on ICT-sector. Study was carried out in a research context, where high degree of external organizational contingencies existed and lots of changes in several development programs had taken place in the last years. From a scientific perspective the main contribution was that evidence between relationships of organizational dependencies, change model portfolio and developed knowledge resources could be suggested. From managerial perspective the primary implication was that in situations where sustainable competitive advantage is pursued by means of increasing knowledge based productivity of labor, firms should seek to pursue organizational settings where external dependencies have minimal amount of effect.

The Anchoring Bias of Investors and the 52-Week High Momentum Strategy in the OMX Helsinki Stock Exchange: Psychological Approach to Market Efficiency

The behavioural finance literature expects systematic and significant deviations from efficiency to persist in securities markets due to behavioural and cognitive biases of investors. These behavioural models attempt to explain the coexistence of intermediate-term momentum and long-term reversals in stock returns based on the systematic violations of rational behaviour of investors. The study investigates the anchoring bias of investors and the profitability of the 52-week momentum strategy (GH henceforward). The relatively highly volatile OMX Helsinki stock exchange is a suitable market for examining the momentum effect, since international investors tend to realise their positions first from the furthest security markets by the time of market turbulence. Empirical data is collected from Thomson Reuters Datastream and the OMX Nordic website. The objective of the study is to provide a throughout research by formulating a self-financing GH momentum portfolio. First, the seasonality of the strategy is examined by taking the January effect into account and researching abnormal returns in long-term. The results indicate that the GH strategy is subject to significantly negative revenues in January, but the strategy is not prone to reversals in long-term. Then the predictive proxies of momentum returns are investigated in terms of acquisition prices and 52-week high statistics as anchors. The results show that the acquisition prices do not have explanatory power over the GH strategy’s abnormal returns. Finally, the efficacy of the GH strategy is examined after taking transaction costs into account, finding that the robust abnormal returns remain statistically significant despite the transaction costs. As a conclusion, the relative distance between a stock’s current price and its 52-week high statistic explains the profits of momentum investing to a high degree. The results indicate that intermediateterm momentum and long-term reversals are separate phenomena. This presents a challenge to current behavioural theories, which model these aspects of stock returns as subsequent components of how securities markets respond to relevant information.

Microbusiness: A new social business model to alleviate poverty in developing countries?

Poverty alleviation views have shifted from seeing the poor as victims or as potential consumers, to seeing them as gainers. Social businesses include microfinancing and microfranchising, which engage people at the bottom of the pyramid using business instead of charity. There are, however, social business firms that do not fit to the existing social business model theory. These firms provide markets to poor producers and mix traditional, local craftsmanship with western design. Social business models evolve faster than the academic literature can study them. This study contributes to filling this gap. The purpose of this Master’s thesis is to develop the concept of social business as poverty alleviation method in developing countries. It also aims; 1) to describe the means for poverty alleviation in developing countries; 2) to introduce microbusiness as a social business model; and 3) to examine the challenges of microbusinesses. Qualitative case study is used as a research strategy and theme interviews as a data collecting method. The empirical data is gathered from four interviews of Finnish or Finnish-owned firms that employ microbusiness – Mifuko, Tensira, Mangomaa and Tikau – and this is supported with secondary data including articles on case companies. The results show that microbusiness is a valid new social business model that aims at poverty alleviation by engaging the poor at the bottom of the pyramid. It is possible to map the value proposition, value constellation, and economic and social profit equations of the case firms. Two major types of firms emerge from the results; the first consists of design-oriented firms that emphasize the quality and design of the products, and the second consists of bazaar-like firms whose product portfolio is less sophisticated and who promote more the stories of the products – not the design. All microbusiness firms provide markets, promote traditional handicrafts, form close relationships to their producers, and aim at enhancing lives through their businesses. The attitudes towards social businesses are sometimes negative, but this is changing for the better. In conclusion, microbusiness answers to two different needs at the same time – consumers’ needs for ethical products and the social needs of the producers – but the social need is the ultimate reason why the entrepreneurs started business. Microbusiness continues as a poverty alleviation tool that sees the poor as gainers; by providing them steady employment, microbusiness increases the poor’s self-esteem and enables them for a better living. Academic literature has not been able to offer enough alternative business models to cover all social businesses; the current study contributes to this by concluding that microbusiness is another social business model.

Understanding, Managing And Developing A Well-Being Service Brand

The aim of this study is to analyze and understand a well-being service brand. Brands most definitely are a hot topic of today’s business world. Companies have started to realize the importance of branding, especially when talking about product related industries. Branding of services is a relatively new concept, which has gained less attention within academic literature. Though there is no legal distinction between product and service brands, they both have their own characteristics and qualities. The focus of the study is especially on the current brand images of both internal and external stakeholder groups. Understanding these brand perceptions will help in managing and developing the brand, so that it becomes even stronger, more recognized, and unified. This study is a quantitative, semi hypothetic-deductive single case study. The data for this study was collected throughout an online survey. The respondents represent both internal stakeholders, in direct contact with the service, as well as external stakeholders, who have no previous history with the service brand. The respondents represent a wide age spread, and are also geographically diverse. The study relies on a Finnish context. The study provides numerous managerial takeaways, especially because of its wide scope, on a topic that has never before been studied. All findings strongly reflected existing service brand theory, in addition with making the findings implementable for the case company.

Price spike forecasting in a competitive day-ahead energy market

Electricity price forecasting has become an important area of research in the aftermath of the worldwide deregulation of the power industry that launched competitive electricity markets now embracing all market participants including generation and retail companies, transmission network providers, and market managers. Based on the needs of the market, a variety of approaches forecasting day-ahead electricity prices have been proposed over the last decades. However, most of the existing approaches are reasonably effective for normal range prices but disregard price spike events, which are caused by a number of complex factors and occur during periods of market stress. In the early research, price spikes were truncated before application of the forecasting model to reduce the influence of such observations on the estimation of the model parameters; otherwise, a very large forecast error would be generated on price spike occasions. Electricity price spikes, however, are significant for energy market participants to stay competitive in a market. Accurate price spike forecasting is important for generation companies to strategically bid into the market and to optimally manage their assets; for retailer companies, since they cannot pass the spikes onto final customers, and finally, for market managers to provide better management and planning for the energy market. This doctoral thesis aims at deriving a methodology able to accurately predict not only the day-ahead electricity prices within the normal range but also the price spikes. The Finnish day-ahead energy market of Nord Pool Spot is selected as the case market, and its structure is studied in detail. It is almost universally agreed in the forecasting literature that no single method is best in every situation. Since the real-world problems are often complex in nature, no single model is able to capture different patterns equally well. Therefore, a hybrid methodology that enhances the modeling capabilities appears to be a possibly productive strategy for practical use when electricity prices are predicted. The price forecasting methodology is proposed through a hybrid model applied to the price forecasting in the Finnish day-ahead energy market. The iterative search procedure employed within the methodology is developed to tune the model parameters and select the optimal input set of the explanatory variables. The numerical studies show that the proposed methodology has more accurate behavior than all other examined methods most recently applied to case studies of energy markets in different countries. The obtained results can be considered as providing extensive and useful information for participants of the day-ahead energy market, who have limited and uncertain information for price prediction to set up an optimal short-term operation portfolio. Although the focus of this work is primarily on the Finnish price area of Nord Pool Spot, given the result of this work, it is very likely that the same methodology will give good results when forecasting the prices on energy markets of other countries.