IPCC:accomplishments,controversies and challenges

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has successfully produced four assessment reports since 1990 along with a number of special reports and greenhouse gas inventory guidelines. It has very rigorous and robust procedures and guidelines for preparing the assessment reports largely based on synthesis of peer-reviewed and published scientific literature. IPCC has attracted controversy since the Second Assessment Report of 1995. The recent controversies surrounding the IPCC reports surfaced nearly two years after the release of the report in 2007, especially in the wake of the crucial Copenhagen Climate Convention. Many of the controversies can be traced to the use of information sourced from reports published outside the scientific journals such as reports of the World Wildlife Fund. It is true that there are a few errors in the IPCC reports, which may have escaped the multilayered rigorous review process. Many of the errors found in the main reports, which are over a thousand page each, have not been quoted in the crucial and most referred Summary for Policy Makers. IPCC may have to develop a more robust policy for sourcing literature published outside the scientific journals. The United Nations Secretary General has requested the prestigious Inter-Academy Council to review the IPCC principles, procedures and guidelines. The controversies raised in the recent past do not in any way change the main conclusions of the IPCC Assessment Report.

Climate change, sustainable development and India: Global and national concerns

Climate change is one of the most important global environmental challenges, with implications for food production, water supply, health, energy, etc. Addressing climate change requires a good scientific understanding as well as coordinated action at national and global level. This paper addresses these challenges. Historically, the responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions' increase lies largely with the industrialized world, though the developing countries are likely to be the source of an increasing proportion of future emissions. The projected climate change under various scenarios is likely to have implications on food production, water supply, coastal settlements, forest ecosystems, health, energy security, etc. The adaptive capacity of communities likely to be impacted by climate change is low in developing countries. The efforts made by the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol provisions are clearly inadequate to address the climate change challenge. The most effective way to address climate change is to adopt a sustainable development pathway by shifting to environmentally sustainable technologies and promotion of energy efficiency, renewable energy, forest conservation, reforestation, water conservation, etc. The issue of highest importance to developing countries is reducing the vulnerability of their natural and socio-economic systems to the projected climate change. India and other developing countries will face the challenge of promoting mitigation and adaptation strategies, bearing the cost of such an effort, and its implications for economic development.

On ion escape from Venus

This doctoral thesis is about the solar wind influence on the atmosphere of the planet Venus. A numerical plasma simulation model was developed for the interaction between Venus and the solar wind to study the erosion of charged particles from the Venus upper atmosphere. The developed model is a hybrid simulation where ions are treated as particles and electrons are modelled as a fluid. The simulation was used to study the solar wind induced ion escape from Venus as observed by the European Space Agency's Venus Express and NASA's Pioneer Venus Orbiter spacecraft. Especially, observations made by the ASPERA-4 particle instrument onboard Venus Express were studied. The thesis consists of an introductory part and four peer-reviewed articles published in scientific journals. In the introduction Venus is presented as one of the terrestrial planets in the Solar System and the main findings of the work are discussed within the wider context of planetary physics. Venus is the closest neighbouring planet to the Earth and the most earthlike planet in its size and mass orbiting the Sun. Whereas the atmosphere of the Earth consists mainly of nitrogen and oxygen, Venus has a hot carbon dioxide atmosphere, which is dominated by the greenhouse effect. Venus has all of its water in the atmosphere, which is only a fraction of the Earth's total water supply. Since planets developed presumably in similar conditions in the young Solar System, why Venus and Earth became so different in many respects? One important feature of Venus is that the planet does not have an intrinsic magnetic field. This makes it possible for the solar wind, a continuous stream of charged particles from the Sun, to flow close to Venus and to pick up ions from the planet's upper atmosphere. The strong intrinsic magnetic field of the Earth dominates the terrestrial magnetosphere and deflects the solar wind flow far away from the atmosphere. The region around Venus where the planet's atmosphere interacts with the solar wind is called the plasma environment or the induced magnetosphere. Main findings of the work include new knowledge about the movement of escaping planetary ions in the Venusian induced magnetosphere. Further, the developed simulation model was used to study how the solar wind conditions affect the ion escape from Venus. Especially, the global three-dimensional structure of the Venusian particle and magnetic environment was studied. The results help to interpret spacecraft observations around the planet. Finally, several remaining questions were identified, which could potentially improve our knowledge of the Venus ion escape and guide the future development of planetary plasma simulations.

How the development of condensation particle counters is reforming our view on atmospheric nucleation

Aerosol particles deteriorate air quality, atmospheric visibility and our health. They affect the Earth s climate by absorbing and scattering sunlight, forming clouds, and also via several feed-back mechanisms. The net effect on the radiative balance is negative, i.e. cooling, which means that particles counteract the effect of greenhouse gases. However, particles are one of the poorly known pieces in the climate puzzle. Some of the airborne particles are natural, some anthropogenic; some enter the atmosphere in particle form, while others form by gas-to-particle conversion. Unless the sources and dynamical processes shaping the particle population are quantified, they cannot be incorporated into climate models. The molecular level understanding of new particle formation is still inadequate, mainly due to the lack of suitable measurement techniques to detect the smallest particles and their precursors. This thesis has contributed to our ability to measure newly formed particles. Three new condensation particle counter applications for measuring the concentration of nano-particles were developed. The suitability of the methods for detecting both charged and electrically neutral particles and molecular clusters as small as 1 nm in diameter was thoroughly tested both in laboratory and field conditions. It was shown that condensation particle counting has reached the size scale of individual molecules, and besides measuring the concentration they can be used for getting size information. In addition to atmospheric research, the particle counters could have various applications in other fields, especially in nanotechnology. Using the new instruments, the first continuous time series of neutral sub-3 nm particle concentrations were measured at two field sites, which represent two different kinds of environments: the boreal forest and the Atlantic coastline, both of which are known to be hot-spots for new particle formation. The contribution of ions to the total concentrations in this size range was estimated, and it could be concluded that the fraction of ions was usually minor, especially in boreal forest conditions. Since the ionization rate is connected to the amount of cosmic rays entering the atmosphere, the relative contribution of neutral to charged nucleation mechanisms extends beyond academic interest, and links the research directly to current climate debate.

Carbon dioxide and methane exchange between a boreal pristine lake and the atmosphere

Lakes serve as sites for terrestrially fixed carbon to be remineralized and transferred back to the atmosphere. Their role in regional carbon cycling is especially important in the Boreal Zone, where lakes can cover up to 20% of the land area. Boreal lakes are often characterized by the presence of a brown water colour, which implies high levels of dissolved organic carbon from the surrounding terrestrial ecosystem, but the load of inorganic carbon from the catchment is largely unknown. Organic carbon is transformed to methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) in biological processes that result in lake water gas concentrations that increase above atmospheric equilibrium, thus making boreal lakes as sources of these important greenhouse gases. However, flux estimates are often based on sporadic sampling and modelling and actual flux measurements are scarce. Thus, the detailed temporal flux dynamics of greenhouse gases are still largely unknown. ----- One aim here was to reveal the natural dynamics of CH4 and CO2 concentrations and fluxes in a small boreal lake. The other aim was to test the applicability of a measuring technique for CO2 flux, i.e. the eddy covariance (EC) technique, and a computational method for estimation of primary production and community respiration, both commonly used in terrestrial research, in this lake. Continuous surface water CO2 concentration measurements, also needed in free-water applications to estimate primary production and community respiration, were used over two open water periods in a study of CO2 concentration dynamics. Traditional methods were also used to measure gas concentration and fluxes. The study lake, Valkea-Kotinen, is a small, humic, headwater lake within an old-growth forest catchment with no local anthropogenic disturbance and thus possible changes in gas dynamics reflect the natural variability in lake ecosystems. CH4 accumulated under the ice and in the hypolimnion during summer stratification. The surface water CH4 concentration was always above atmospheric equilibrium and thus the lake was a continuous source of CH4 to the atmosphere. However, the annual CH4 fluxes were small, i.e. 0.11 mol m-2 yr-1, and the timing of fluxes differed from that of other published estimates. The highest fluxes are usually measured in spring after ice melt but in Lake Valkea-Kotinen CH4 was effectively oxidised in spring and highest effluxes occurred in autumn after summer stratification period. CO2 also accumulated under the ice and the hypolimnetic CO2 concentration increased steadily during stratification period. The surface water CO2 concentration was highest in spring and in autumn, whereas during the stable stratification it was sometimes under atmospheric equilibrium. It showed diel, daily and seasonal variation; the diel cycle was clearly driven by light and thus reflected the metabolism of the lacustrine ecosystem. However, the diel cycle was sometimes blurred by injection of hypolimnetic water rich in CO2 and the surface water CO2 concentration was thus controlled by stratification dynamics. The highest CO2 fluxes were measured in spring, autumn and during those hypolimnetic injections causing bursts of CO2 comparable with the spring and autumn fluxes. The annual fluxes averaged 77 (±11 SD) g C m-2 yr-1. In estimating the importance of the lake in recycling terrestrial carbon, the flux was normalized to the catchment area and this normalized flux was compared with net ecosystem production estimates of -50 to 200 g C m-2 yr-1 from unmanaged forests in corresponding temperature and precipitation regimes in the literature. Within this range the flux of Lake Valkea-Kotinen yielded from the increase in source of the surrounding forest by 20% to decrease in sink by 5%. The free water approach gave primary production and community respiration estimates of 5- and 16-fold, respectively, compared with traditional bottle incubations during a 5-day testing period in autumn. The results are in parallel with findings in the literature. Both methods adopted from the terrestrial community also proved useful in lake studies. A large percentage of the EC data was rejected, due to the unfulfilled prerequisites of the method. However, the amount of data accepted remained large compared with what would be feasible with traditional methods. Use of the EC method revealed underestimation of the widely used gas exchange model and suggests simultaneous measurements of actual turbulence at the water surface with comparison of the different gas flux methods to revise the parameterization of the gas transfer velocity used in the models.

Greening India Mission

The Government of India has announced the Greening India Mission (GIM) under the National Climate Change Action Plan. The Mission aims to restore and afforest about 10 mha over the period 2010-2020 under different sub-missions covering moderately dense and open forests, scrub/grasslands, mangroves, wetlands, croplands and urban areas. Even though the main focus of the Mission is to address mitigation and adaptation aspects in the context of climate change, the adaptation component is inadequately addressed. There is a need for increased scientific input in the preparation of the Mission. The mitigation potential is estimated by simply multiplying global default biomass growth rate values and area. It is incomplete as it does not include all the carbon pools, phasing, differing growth rates, etc. The mitigation potential estimated using the Comprehensive Mitigation Analysis Process model for the GIM for the year 2020 has the potential to offset 6.4% of the projected national greenhouse gas emissions, compared to the GIM estimate of only 1.5%, excluding any emissions due to harvesting or disturbances. The selection of potential locations for different interventions and species choice under the GIM must be based on the use of modelling, remote sensing and field studies. The forest sector provides an opportunity to promote mitigation and adaptation synergy, which is not adequately addressed in the GIM. Since many of the interventions proposed are innovative and limited scientific knowledge exists, there is need for an unprecedented level of collaboration between the research institutions and the implementing agencies such as the Forest Departments, which is currently non-existent. The GIM could propel systematic research into forestry and climate change issues and thereby provide global leadership in this new and emerging science.

Suokasvillisuuden vaste muuttuvaan ilmastoon: kokeellinen tutkimus kuivumisen vaikutuksesta

Soilla on merkittävä rooli ilmastonmuutoksen hillitsemisessä suuren hiilivarastonsa sekä ekosysteemin ja ilmakehän välisen kaasunvaihdon ansiosta. Ilmastonmuutoksen ennustetaan vaikuttavan suokasvillisuuteen ja suon toimintaan epäsuorasti. Vedenpinnan ennustetaan laskevan 14–21 cm johtuen kasveista ja avoimilta pinnoilta tapahtuvan haihdunnan lisääntymisestä lämpötilan noustessa, mikäli sadanta ei lisäänny. Aiemmat vedenpinnan laskun jälkeistä kasvillisuutta seuranneet tutkimukset ovat osoittaneet, että putkilokasvit hyötyvät alhaisemmasta vedenpinnan tasosta ja että kuljuun sopeutuneet rahkasammalet kärsivät kuivuneista oloista. Kasvillisuuden runsaussuhteiden muuttumisen lisäksi kasviyhteisöjen monimuotoisuus vähenee. Erityisen herkkiä vedenpinnan laskulle ovat olleet välipinta- ja kuljurahkasammalet ja sarat. Funktionaalisten kasviryhmien vasteiden selvittämiksesi käytettiin BACI (before-after-control-impact) –tutkimusotetta. Tutkimuksessa oli kolme verrokkialaa ja kolme käsittelyalaa, joissa vedenpintaa oli laskettu 14–21 senttimetriin. Lisäksi vertailukohdaksi tutkimuksessa oli mukana kolme alaa, joissa oli tehty metsäojitus n. 50 vuotta sitten. Nämä toistot sijaitsivat meso-, oligo ombrotrofisilla suotyypeillä Oriveden Lakkasuolla. Kasvillisuus kartoitettiin ja vedenpinnat mitattiin aloilta ennen käsittelyä vuonna 2000 sekä vuosina 2001–2003 ja 2009. Aineisto analysoitiin TWINSPAN- (PC-Ord), PRC ja DCA (CANOCO)-monimuuttujamenetelmillä. Tulokset osoittivat, että verrokki- ja käsittelyalat olivat samanlaisia lähtökohdiltaan, joten niitä voitiin käsittelyn jälkeen verrata toisiinsa. Kasvillisuuden rakenne vaihteli vuosien välillä myös verrokkialoilla, mikä osoittaa kasvien sopeutumiskyvyn muuttuviin sääoloihin (lämpötila, sademäärä). Vuosi 2003 erottui tutkimuksessa alhaisella vedenpinnantasolla, mutta toisaalta myös ainavihantien varpujen suuren peittävyyden osalta. Vuoteen 2009 mennessä kasvillisuuden erityisesti sarojen peittävyys väheni. Ravinteikkaimmilla toistoilla kasvillisuuden vasteet vaikuttivat olevan vahvemmat kuin vähäravinteisilla toistoilla. Kasviryhmistä kulju- ja välipintasammalilla oli vahvimmat vasteetvedenpinnan laskuun ja mätäslajeilla heikoimmat. Tulosten mukaan kasviryhmien vasteet vaihtelevat riippuen tarkasteltavasta aikajaksosta: ensimmäiset kolme vuotta käsittelyn jälkeen suo oli häiriötilassa ja vasta sen jälkeen kasvillisuus sopeutui muuttuneisiin oloihin.

Diversitet och tillväxtfrämjande egenskaper hos Stenotrophomonas-endofyter isolerade från Calliandra calothyrsus Meisn. rotknölar

The bacterial genus Stenotrophomonas comprises 12 species. They are widely found throughout the environment and particularly S. maltophilia, S. rhizophila and S. pavanii are closely associated with plants. Strains of the most common Stenotrophomonas species, S. maltophilia, promote plant growth and health, degrade natural and man-made pollutants and produce biomolecules of biotechnological and economical value. Many S. maltophilia –strains are also multidrug resistant and can act as opportunistic human pathogens. During an INCO-project (1998-2002) rhizobia were collected from root nodules of the tropical leguminous tree Calliandra calothyrsus Meisn. from several countries in Central America, Africa and New Caledonia. The strains were identified by the N2-group (Helsinki university) and some strains turned out to be members of the genus Stenotrophomonas. Several Stenotrophomonas strains induced white tumor- or nodule-like structures on Calliandra?s roots in plant experiments. The strains could, besides from root nodules, also be isolated from surface sterilized roots and stems. The purpose of my work was to investigate if the Stenotrophomonas strains i) belong to a new Stenotrophomonas species, ii) have the same origin, iii) if there are other differences than colony morphology between phase variations of the same strain, iv) have plant growth-promoting (PGP) activity or other advantageous effects on plants, and v) like rhizobia have ability to induce root nodule formation. The genetic diversity and clustering of the Stenotrophomonas strains were analyzed with AFLP fingerprinting to get indications about their geographical origin. Differences in enzymatic properties and ability to use different carbon and energy sources were tested between the two phases of each strain with commercial API tests for bacterial identification. The ability to infect root hairs and induce root nodule formation was investigated both using plant tests with the host plant Calliandra and PCR amplification of nodA and nodC genes for nodulation. The PGP activity of the strains was tested in vitro mainly with plate methods. The impact on growth, nitrogen content and nodulation in vivo was investigated through greenhouse experiments with the legumes Phaseolus vulgaris and Galega orientalis. Both the genetic and phenotypic diversity among the Stenotrophomonas strains was small, which proposes that they have the same origin. The strains brought about changes on the root hairs of Calliandra and they also increased the amount of root hairs. However, no root nodules were detected. The strains produced IAA, protease and lipase in vitro. They also showed plant a growth-promoting effect on G. orientalis, both alone and together with R. galegae HAMBI 540, and also activated nodulation among efficient rhizobia on P. vulgaris in greenhouse. It requires further research to get a better picture about the mechanisms behind the positive effects. The results in this thesis, however, confirm earlier studies concerning Stenotrophomonas positive impact on plants.

Helsingin seudun ruuhkamaksut yritysnäkökulmasta

Congestion of traffic is one of the biggest challenges for urban cities in global perspective. Car traffic and traffic jams are causing major problems and the congestion is predicted to worsen in the future. The greenhouse effect has caused a severe threat to the environment globally. On the other hand from the point of view of companies and other economic parties time and money has been lost because of the congestion of traffic. This work studies some possible traffic payment systems for the Helsinki Metropolitan area introducing three optional models and concentrating on the point of view of the economic parties. Central part of this work is formed by a research questionnaire, which was conducted among companies located in the Helsinki area and where more than 1000 responses were gained. The study researches the approaches of the respondents to the area s current traffic system, its development and urban congestion pricing and the answers are analyzed according to the size, industry and location of the companies. The economic aspect is studied by economic theory of industrial location and by emphasizing the meaning of smoothly running traffic for the economic world. Chapter three presents detailed information about traffic congestion, how today s car-centered society has been formed, what concrete things congestion means for economic life and how traffic congestion can be limited. Theoretically it is examined how urban traffic payment systems are working using examples from London and Stockholm where successful traffic payment experiences exist. The literature review analyzes urban development, increasing car traffic and Helsinki Metropolitan area on a structural point of view. The fourth chapter introduces a case study, which concentrates on Helsinki Metropolitan area s different structures, the congestion situation in Helsinki and the introduction of the traffic payment system clarification. Currently the region is experiencing a phase where big changes are happening in the planning of traffic. The traffic systems are being unified to consider the whole region in the future. Also different advices for the increasing traffic congestion problems are needed. Chapter five concentrates on the questionnaire and theme interviews and introduces the research findings. The respondents overall opinion of the traffic payments is quite skeptical. There were some regional differences found and especially taxi, bus and cargo and transit enterprises shared the most negative opinion. Economic parties were worried especially because of the traffic congestion is causing harm for the business travel and the employees traveling to and from work. According to the respondents the best option from the traffic payment models was the ring model where the payment places would be situated inside the Ring Road III. Both the company representatives and other key decision makers see public transportation as a good and powerful tool to decrease traffic congestion. The only question, which remains, is where to find investors willing to invest in public transportation if economic representatives do not believe in pricing the traffic by for example traffic payment systems.

Viherrevonhäntä ja kananhirssi vieraslajeina Suomessa

Kasvit ovat kautta aikojen levinneet uusille elinpaikoille. Kasvin asettumista uuteen paikkaan voidaan tarkastella prosessina, jossa on erilaisia vaiheita ja eri vaiheissa eri tekijät ovat tärkeitä. Ilmasto ja erityisesti lämpötila vaikuttavat kasvien levinneisyyteen ja leviämiseen uusille paikoille ja siksi ilmaston lämpenemisen ennustetaan siirtävän kasvien levinneisyysalueita kohti pohjoista. On mahdollista, että Suomeenkin leviäisi etelämmästä muiden kasvien ohella haitallisia rikkakasvilajeja, kuten esimerkiksi viherrevonhäntä (Amaranthus retroflexus L.) ja kananhirssi (Echinochloa crus-galli L. Beauv.). Tämän tutkimuksen tarkoituksena oli selvittää, selviävätkö viherrevonhäntä ja kananhirssi Suomessa pelto-olosuhteissa ja pohtia niiden vakiintumisen ja leviämisen mahdollisuuksia. Toinen tarkoitus oli selvittää ilmaston lämpenemisen vaikutusta näiden rikkakasvien kasvuun. Tutkimus suoritettiin kenttä- sekä kasvihuonekokeena. Viherrevonhäntä kasvoi pellolla hyvin huolimatta myöhäisestä itämisestä, mutta kananhirssi iti ja kasvoi pellolla huonosti. Kasvihuoneessa molemmat kasvoivat hyvin. Kilpailu vähensi viherrevonhännän ja kananhirssin vegetatiivista kasvua vain kasvihuoneessa, mutta siementuottoon kilpailu vaikutti sekä kasvihuoneessa että pellolla. Kasvihuoneessa korkeampi lämpötila ei vaikuttanut viherrevonhännän tai kananhirssin vegetatiiviseen kasvuun, mutta viherrevonhännän siementuotto parani lämpimämmässä. Lämpötilalla ei ollut vaikutusta kananhirssin siementuotantoon. Tutkimuksen tuloksista voidaan päätellä, että viherrevonhäntä voi hyvinkin kasvaa Suomessa jo nykyisissä lämpötiloissa, mutta siementuotto ei välttämättä olisi varmaa. Viherrevonhäntä voisi näin ollen hyötyä tulevaisuuden pidemmästä kasvukaudesta. Kananhirssin osalta tulokset olivat ristiriitaiset ja ilmaston lämpenemisen vaikutuksia kananhirssiin on tämän tutkimuksen perusteella hankala arvioida.

Naudanlihan jalostusketjun hiilijalanjälki Suomessa

Kirjallisuustutkimuksen tavoitteena oli perehtyä kasvihuoneilmiön taustoihin ja kartoittaa aiempia tutkimuksia naudan- ja muiden lihatuotteiden kasvihuonekaasupäästöistä. Lisäksi kirjallisuustutkimuksessa perehdyttiin aiemmissa tutkimuksissa elintarvikkeiden hiilijalanjäljen laskemisessa sovellettuun elinkaarianalyysiin ISO 14040-standardin mukaisesti. Kokeellisen osion tavoitteena oli määrittää naudanlihan hiilijalanjälki Suomessa maatilan portilta kuluttajan ruokapöytään. Tavoitteena oli myös ymmärtää jalostusketjun päästöjen merkitys verrattuna koko naudanlihan tuotantoketjuun ja määrittää jalostusketjun vaiheiden merkitys ketjussa. Työn toiminnallisena yksikkönä toimi kilo naudanlihaa. Työ toteutettiin perehtymällä yksityiskohtaisesti yhteen naudanlihan jalostusketjuun Suomessa. Päästöt laskettiin todellisten yhteistyöyritykseltä saatujen prosessitietojen perusteella. Tiedot kerättiin tiedonkeruulomakkeella vierailemalla yhteistyöyrityksen kahdessa tuotantolaitoksessa ja täydentämällä tietoja haastatteluilla. Naudanlihan jalostusketjun päästöt olivat 1240 g CO2-ekv/lihakilo. Eniten päästöjä tuottivat jalostusvaihe (310 g CO2-ekv/lihakilo), teurastus (280 g CO2-ekv/lihakilo) ja lihatuotteiden kuljetus kuluttajalle (210 g CO2-ekv/lihakilo). Koko naudanlihan tuotantoketjusta jalostusketjun päästöt muodostivat alle 4 %, sillä syntymästä maatilan portille syntyviksi päästöiksi laskettiin kirjallisuuden perusteella yli 30 000 g CO2-ekv/lihakilo. Jatkossa naudanlihan hiilijalanjälkeä voitaisiin pääasiassa pienentää kehittämällä prosessia maatilan portille asti. Tämän työn tulokset olivat hyvin samansuuruiset verrattuna aiempaan tutkimukseen broilerin jalostusketjun päästöistä Suomessa (Katajajuuri ym. 2008). Tämä vastasi ennakko-odotuksia, sillä jalostusketjujen vaiheissa ei ollut merkittäviä eroja. Aiempia tutkimuksia naudanlihan jalostusketjun päästöistä ei ollut saatavilla.

Lumettoman maan routaolojen mallintaminen ja ennustettavuus muuttuvassa ilmastossa

Raportissa on arvioitu ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutusta Suomen maaperän talviaikaiseen jäätymiseen lämpösummien perusteella. Laskelmat kuvaavat roudan paksuutta nimenomaisesti lumettomilla alueilla, esimerkiksi teillä, joilta satanut lumi aurataan pois. Luonnossa lämpöä eristävän lumipeitteen alla routaa on ohuemmin kuin tällaisilla lumettomilla alueilla. Toisaalta luonnollisessa ympäristössä paikalliset erot korostuvat johtuen mm. maalajeista ja kasvillisuudesta. Roudan paksuudet laskettiin ensin perusjakson 1971–2000 ilmasto-oloissa talviaikaisten säähavaintotietoihin pohjautuvien lämpötilojen perusteella. Sen jälkeen laskelmat toistettiin kolmelle tulevalle ajanjaksolle (2010–2039, 2040–2069 ja 2070–2099) kohottamalla lämpötiloja ilmastonmuutosmallien ennustamalla tavalla. Laskelman pohjana käytettiin 19 ilmastomallin A1B-skenaarioajojen keskimäärin simuloimaa lämpötilan muutosta. Tulosten herkkyyden arvioimiseksi joitakin laskelmia tehtiin myös tätä selvästi heikompaa ja voimakkaampaa lämpenemisarviota käyttäen. A1B-skenaarion mukaisen lämpötilan nousun toteutuessa nykyisiä mallituloksia vastaavasti routakerros ohenee sadan vuoden aikana Pohjois-Suomessa 30–40 %, suuressa osassa maan keski- ja eteläosissa 50–70 %. Jo lähivuosikymmeninä roudan ennustetaan ohentuvan 10–30 %, saaristossa enemmän. Mikäli lämpeneminen toteutuisi voimakkaimman tarkastellun vaihtoehdon mukaisesti, roudan syvyys pienenisi tätäkin enemmän. Roudan paksuuden vuosienvälistä vaihtelua ja sen muuttumista tulevaisuudessa pyrittiin myös arvioimaan. Leutoina talvina routa ohenee enemmän kuin normaaleina tai ankarina pakkastalvina. Päivittäistä sään vaihtelua simuloineen säägeneraattorin tuottamassa aineistoissa esiintyi kuitenkin liian vähän hyvin alhaisia ja hyvin korkeita lämpötiloja. Siksi näitten lämpötilatietojen pohjalta laskettu roudan paksuuskin ilmeisesti vaihtelee liian vähän vuodesta toiseen. Kelirikkotilanteita voi esiintyä myös kesken routakauden, jos useamman päivän suojasää ja samanaikainen runsas vesisade pääsevät sulattamaan maata. Tällaiset routakauden aikana sattuvat säätilat näyttävätkin yleistyvän lähivuosikymmeninä. Vuosisadan loppua kohti ne sen sijaan maan eteläosissa jälleen vähenevät, koska routakausi lyhenee oleellisesti. Tulevia vuosikymmeniä koskevien ilmastonmuutosennusteiden ohella routaa ja kelirikon esiintymistä on periaatteessa mahdollista ennustaa myös lähiaikojen sääennusteita hyödyntäen. Pitkät, viikkojen tai kuukausien mittaiset sääennusteet eivät tosin ole ainakaan vielä erityisen luotettavia, mutta myös lyhyemmistä ennusteista voisi olla hyötyä mm. tienpitoa suunniteltaessa.

Jakojuuriviljelyn vaikutus kasvihuonekurkun (Cucumis sativus L.) kasvuun ja kehitykseen

Kasvit ottavat vettä parhaiten kasteluravinneliuoksesta, jonka ravinnepitoisuus on pieni. Intensiivisessä kasvihuonetuotannossa käytetään silti kastelulannoituksessa usein korkeita ravinnepitoisuuksia ravinnepuutosten ja satotappioiden välttämiseksi. Jakojuuriviljelyssä kasvin juuriston annetaan kasvaa kahteen erilliseen kasvualustaosioon. Tällöin toiselle puolelle annetaan johtokyvyltään väkevää ja toiselle puolelle laimeaa ravinneliuosta. Erityisesti kasvihuonekurkun, joka on herkkä kasvualustan suolaisuuden aiheuttamille vedensaantiongelmille, on todettu hyötyvän tästä tekniikasta, mikä näkyy kasvaneina satoina. Tämän MTT Piikkiössä toteutetun kasvihuonekurkun jakojuuriviljelytutkimuksen tavoitteena oli tarkentaa tekniikkaa erityisesti kasteluliuosten johtokyvyn osalta. Yhtenäisjuuriviljelyn ja perinteisen jakojuuriviljelyn lisäksi kokeessa oli kaksi jakojuuriviljelykäsittelyä, joissa ravinneliuosväkevyyksiä vaihdettiin väliajoin juuriston toimintakyvyn parantamiseksi. Erillisessä osakokeessa tutkittiin erilaisten johtokyky-yhdistelmien vaikutusta kasvihuonekurkun vegetatiiviseen kasvuun maanpäällisten ja -alaisten kasvinosien välillä sekä juurten morfologiaan ja anatomiaan. Tulokset osoittivat, että jakojuuriviljely lisäsi kasvihuonekurkun sadontuottoa jopa 16 %, mutta ei vaikuttanut koko viljelykauden veden tai ravinteiden ottoon. Yhtenäisjuuriviljelyssä muodostui eniten piikkikärkisiä hedelmiä, mikä viittaa vedensaantiongelmiin haihdutustarpeen ollessa suurin. Viljelytekniikalla ei ollut vaikutusta kasvien vegetatiiviseen kasvuun tai kasvuston rakenteeseen. Lehtiruodeista tehdyt nitraatti- ja kaliummittaukset osoittivat, ettei kasteluliuosten ravinnepitoisuuksilla ollut vaikutusta juurten ravinteiden ottoon. Erilaisilla johtokyky-yhdistelmillä oli huomattavampi vaikutus kasvihuonekurkun juurten painoon kuin verson painoon tai varren pituuskasvuun. Lehtiruotianalyysit viittasivat ravinteiden erilaiseen allokointiin eri johtokyky-yhdistelmissä. Korkeiden johtokykyjen aiheuttama osmoottinen stressi johti muutoksiin juurten morfologiassa ja anatomiassa. Tulosten perusteella jakojuuriviljely paransi kehittyvien hedelmien kohdevahvuutta suhteessa muihin kohteisiin vaikuttamatta vegetatiiviseen kasvuun. Kun laimean ja väkevän ravinneliuoksen puolia vaihdettiin, juuristo otti joustavasti vettä ja ravinteita olosuhteiden määräämästä edullisemmasta johtokyvystä, jolloin kasvihuonekurkun viljelyssä saavutettiin merkittävä satoetu. Juuriston jakaminen vaikuttanee kasvien hormoniaineenvaihduntaan ja voi heikentää juuriston kasvua heikentämättä sen toimintakykyä, jolloin yhteyttämistuotteita kohdennetaan tehokkaammin maanpäällisten osien kasvuun.

Rapsista tuotetun biodieselin ja vehnästä tuotetun bioetanolin energiavirrat ja ympäristövaikutukset Euroopan unionissa

The aim of this thesis was to study the crops currently used for biofuel production from the following aspects: 1. what should be the average yield/ ha to reach an energy balance at least 0 or positive 2. what are the shares of the primary and secondary energy flows in agriculture, transport, processing and usage, and 3. overall effects of biofuel crop cultivation, transport, processing and usage. This thesis concentrated on oilseed rape biodiesel and wheat bioethanol in the European Union, comparing them with competing biofuels, such as corn and sugarcane-based ethanol, and the second generation biofuels. The study was executed by comparing Life Cycle Assessment-studies from the EU-region and by analyzing them thoroughly from the differences viewpoint. The variables were the following: energy ratio, hectare yield (l/ha), impact on greenhouse gas emissions (particularly CO2), energy consumption in crop growing and processing one hectare of a particular crop to biofuel, distribution of energy in processing and effects of the secondary energy flows, like e.g. wheat straw. Processing was found to be the most energy consuming part in the production of biofuels. So if the raw materials will remain the same, the development will happen in processing. First generation biodiesel requires esterification, which consumes approximately one third of the process energy. Around 75% of the energy consumed in manufacturing the first generation wheat-based ethanol is spent in steam and electricity generation. No breakthroughs are in sight in the agricultural sector to achieve significantly higher energy ratios. It was found out that even in ideal conditions the energy ratio of first generation wheat-based ethanol will remain slightly under 2. For oilseed rape-based biodiesel the energy ratios are better, and energy consumption per hectare is lower compared to wheat-based ethanol. But both of these are lower compared to e.g. sugarcane-based ethanol. Also the hectare yield of wheat-based ethanol is significantly lower. Biofuels are in a key position when considering the future of the world’s transport sector. Uncertainties concerning biofuels are, however, several, like the schedule of large scale introduction to consumer markets, technologies used, raw materials and their availability and - maybe the biggest - the real production capacity in relation to the fuel consumption. First generation biofuels have not been the expected answer to environmental problems. Comparisons made show that sugarcane-based ethanol is the most prominent first generation biofuel at the moment, both from energy and environment point of view. Also palmoil-based biodiesel looks promising, although it involves environmental concerns as well. From this point of view the biofuels in this study - wheat-based ethanol and oilseed rape-based biodiesel - are not very competitive options. On the other hand, crops currently used for fuel production in different countries are selected based on several factors, not only based on thier relative general superiority. It is challenging to make long-term forecasts for the biofuel sector, but it can be said that satisfying the world's current and near future traffic fuel consumption with biofuels can only be regarded impossible. This does not mean that biofuels shoud be rejected and their positive aspects ignored, but maybe this reality helps us to put them in perspective. To achieve true environmental benefits through the usage of biofuels there must first be a significant drop both in traffic volumes and overall fuel consumption. Second generation biofuels are coming, but serious questions about their availability and production capacities remain open. Therefore nothing can be taken for granted in this issue, expect the need for development.

Renewable Energy and Climate Policies: Studies in the Forest and Energy Sector

‪This dissertation examines the impacts of energy and climate policies on the energy and forest sectors, focusing on the case of Finland. The thesis consists of an introduction article and four separate studies. The dissertation was motivated by the climate concern and the increasing demand of renewable energy. In particular, the renewable energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission reduction targets of the European Union were driving this work. In Finland, both forest and energy sectors are in key roles in achieving these targets. In fact, the separation between forest and energy sector is diminishing as the energy sector is utilizing increasing amounts of wood in energy production and as the forest sector is becoming more and more important energy producer.‬ ‪The objective of this dissertation is to find out and measure the impacts of climate and energy policies on the forest and energy sectors. In climate policy, the focus is on emissions trading, and in energy policy the dissertation focuses on the promotion of renewable forest-based energy use. The dissertation relies on empirical numerical models that are based on microeconomic theory. Numerical partial equilibrium mixed complementarity problem models were constructed to study the markets under scrutiny. The separate studies focus on co-firing of wood biomass and fossil fuels, liquid biofuel production in the pulp and paper industry, and the impacts of climate policy on the pulp and paper sector.‬ ‪The dissertation shows that the policies promoting wood-based energy may have have unexpected negative impacts. When feed-in tariff is imposed together with emissions trading, in some plants the production of renewable electricity might decrease as the emissions price increases. The dissertation also shows that in liquid biofuel production, investment subsidy may cause high direct policy costs and other negative impacts when compared to other policy instruments. The results of the dissertation also indicate that from the climate mitigation perspective, perfect competition is the favored wood market competition structure, at least if the emissions trading system is not global.‬ ‪In conclusion, this dissertation suggests that when promoting the use of wood biomass in energy production, the favored policy instruments are subsidies that promote directly the renewable energy production (i.e. production subsidy, renewables subsidy or feed-in premium). Also, the policy instrument should be designed to be dependent on the emissions price or on the substitute price. In addition, this dissertation shows that when planning policies to promote wood-based renewable energy, the goals of the policy scheme should be clear before decisions are made on the choice of the policy instruments.‬