Adaptación del sector turístico al cambio climático en España. La importancia de las acciones a escala local y en empresas turísticas

El 5º Informe del IPCC (Panel Intergubernamental de Cambio Climático, 2014) señala que el turismo será una de las actividades económicas que mayores efectos negativos experimentará en las próximas décadas debido al calentamiento térmico del planeta. En España, el turismo es una fuente principal de ingresos y de creación de puestos de trabajo en su economía. De ahí que sea necesaria la puesta en marcha de medidas de adaptación a la nueva realidad climática que, en nuestro país, va a suponer cambios en el confort climático de los destinos e incremento de extremos atmosféricos. Frente a los planes de adaptación al cambio climático en la actividad turística, elaborados por los gobiernos estatal y regional, que apenas se han desarrollado en España, la escala local muestra interesantes ejemplos de acciones de adaptación al cambio climático, desarrolladas tanto por los municipios (energía, transporte, vivienda, planificación urbanística) como por la propia empresa turística (hoteles, campings, apartamentos). Medidas de ahorro de agua y luz, fomento del transporte público y de las energías limpias, creación de zonas verdes urbanas y adaptación a los extremos atmosféricos destacan como acciones de mitigación del cambio climático en los destinos turísticos principales de nuestro país.

Air-sea fluxes of CO2 and CH4 from the Penlee Point Atmospheric Observatory on the south-west coast of the UK

We present air–sea fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), momentum, and sensible heat measured by the eddy covariance method from the recently established Penlee Point Atmospheric Observatory (PPAO) on the south-west coast of the United Kingdom. Measurements from the south-westerly direction (open water sector) were made at three different sampling heights (approximately 15, 18, and 27m above mean sea level, a.m.s.l.), each from a different period during 2014–2015. At sampling heights ≥18ma.m.s.l., measured fluxes of momentum and sensible heat demonstrate reasonable (≤ ±20% in the mean) agreement with transfer rates over the open ocean. This confirms the suitability of PPAO for air–sea exchange measurements in shelf regions. Covariance air–sea CO2 fluxes demonstrate high temporal variability. Air-to-sea transport of CO2 declined from spring to summer in both years, coinciding with the breakdown of the spring phytoplankton bloom. We report, to the best of our knowledge, the first successful eddy covariance measurements of CH4 emissions from a marine environment. Higher sea-to-air CH4 fluxes were observed during rising tides (20±3; 38±3; 29±6 μmolem-2 d-1 at 15, 18, 27ma.m.s.l.) than during falling tides (14±2; 22±2; 21±5 μmolem-2 d-1), consistent with an elevated CH4 source from an estuarine outflow driven by local tidal circulation. These fluxes are a few times higher than the predicted CH4 emissions over the open ocean and are significantly lower than estimates from other aquatic CH4 hotspots (e.g. polar regions, freshwater). Finally, we found the detection limit of the air–sea CH4 flux by eddy covariance to be 20 μmolem-2 d-1 over hourly timescales (4 μmolem-2 d-1 over 24 h).

Air-sea fluxes of CO2 and CH4 from the Penlee Point Atmospheric Observatory on the south-west coast of the UK

We present air–sea fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), momentum, and sensible heat measured by the eddy covariance method from the recently established Penlee Point Atmospheric Observatory (PPAO) on the south-west coast of the United Kingdom. Measurements from the south-westerly direction (open water sector) were made at three different sampling heights (approximately 15, 18, and 27m above mean sea level, a.m.s.l.), each from a different period during 2014–2015. At sampling heights ≥18ma.m.s.l., measured fluxes of momentum and sensible heat demonstrate reasonable (≤ ±20% in the mean) agreement with transfer rates over the open ocean. This confirms the suitability of PPAO for air–sea exchange measurements in shelf regions. Covariance air–sea CO2 fluxes demonstrate high temporal variability. Air-to-sea transport of CO2 declined from spring to summer in both years, coinciding with the breakdown of the spring phytoplankton bloom. We report, to the best of our knowledge, the first successful eddy covariance measurements of CH4 emissions from a marine environment. Higher sea-to-air CH4 fluxes were observed during rising tides (20±3; 38±3; 29±6 μmolem-2 d-1 at 15, 18, 27ma.m.s.l.) than during falling tides (14±2; 22±2; 21±5 μmolem-2 d-1), consistent with an elevated CH4 source from an estuarine outflow driven by local tidal circulation. These fluxes are a few times higher than the predicted CH4 emissions over the open ocean and are significantly lower than estimates from other aquatic CH4 hotspots (e.g. polar regions, freshwater). Finally, we found the detection limit of the air–sea CH4 flux by eddy covariance to be 20 μmolem-2 d-1 over hourly timescales (4 μmolem-2 d-1 over 24 h).

The Antibiotic Resistance and Prescribing in European Children Project: A Neonatal and Pediatric Antimicrobial Web-based Point Prevalence Survey in 73 Hospitals Worldwide

BACKGROUND: The neonatal and pediatric antimicrobial point prevalence survey (PPS) of the Antibiotic Resistance and Prescribing in European Children project (http://www.arpecproject.eu/) aims to standardize a method for surveillance of antimicrobial use in children and neonates admitted to the hospital within Europe. This article describes the audit criteria used and reports overall country-specific proportions of antimicrobial use. An analytical review presents methodologies on antimicrobial use.

METHODS: A 1-day PPS on antimicrobial use in hospitalized children was organized in September 2011, using a previously validated and standardized method. The survey included all inpatient pediatric and neonatal beds and identified all children receiving an antimicrobial treatment on the day of survey. Mandatory data were age, gender, (birth) weight, underlying diagnosis, antimicrobial agent, dose and indication for treatment. Data were entered through a web-based system for data-entry and reporting, based on the WebPPS program developed for the European Surveillance of Antimicrobial Consumption project.

RESULTS: There were 2760 and 1565 pediatric versus 1154 and 589 neonatal inpatients reported among 50 European (n = 14 countries) and 23 non-European hospitals (n = 9 countries), respectively. Overall, antibiotic pediatric and neonatal use was significantly higher in non-European (43.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 41.3-46.3% and 39.4%; 95% CI: 35.5-43.4%) compared with that in European hospitals (35.4; 95% CI: 33.6-37.2% and 21.8%; 95% CI: 19.4-24.2%). Proportions of antibiotic use were highest in hematology/oncology wards (61.3%; 95% CI: 56.2-66.4%) and pediatric intensive care units (55.8%; 95% CI: 50.3-61.3%).

CONCLUSIONS: An Antibiotic Resistance and Prescribing in European Children standardized web-based method for a 1-day PPS was successfully developed and conducted in 73 hospitals worldwide. It offers a simple, feasible and sustainable way of data collection that can be used globally.

Point-and-shoot: rapid quantitative detection methods for on-site food fraud analysis – moving out of the laboratory and into the food supply chain

Major food adulteration and contamination events occur with alarming regularity and are known to be episodic, with the question being not if but when another large-scale food safety/integrity incident will occur. Indeed, the challenges of maintaining food security are now internationally recognised. The ever increasing scale and complexity of food supply networks can lead to them becoming significantly more vulnerable to fraud and contamination, and potentially dysfunctional. This can make the task of deciding which analytical methods are more suitable to collect and analyse (bio)chemical data within complex food supply chains, at targeted points of vulnerability, that much more challenging. It is evident that those working within and associated with the food industry are seeking rapid, user-friendly methods to detect food fraud and contamination, and rapid/high-throughput screening methods for the analysis of food in general. In addition to being robust and reproducible, these methods should be portable and ideally handheld and/or remote sensor devices, that can be taken to or be positioned on/at-line at points of vulnerability along complex food supply networks and require a minimum amount of background training to acquire information rich data rapidly (ergo point-and-shoot). Here we briefly discuss a range of spectrometry and spectroscopy based approaches, many of which are commercially available, as well as other methods currently under development. We discuss a future perspective of how this range of detection methods in the growing sensor portfolio, along with developments in computational and information sciences such as predictive computing and the Internet of Things, will together form systems- and technology-based approaches that significantly reduce the areas of vulnerability to food crime within food supply chains. As food fraud is a problem of systems and therefore requires systems level solutions and thinking.

What do people think about running barefoot/with minimalist footwear? A thematic analysis

Objectives

Barefoot running describes when individuals run without footwear. Minimalist running utilizes shoes aimed to mimic being barefoot. Although these forms of running have become increasingly popular, we still know little about how recreational runners perceive them.
Design

In-depth interviews with eight recreational runners were used to gather information about their running experiences with a focus on barefoot and minimalist running.
Methods

Interviews were analysed using a latent level thematic analysis to identify and interpret themes within the data.
Results

Although participants considered barefoot running to be ‘natural’, they also considered it to be extreme. Minimalist running did not produce such aversive reactions. ‘Support’ reassured against concerns and was seen as central in protecting vulnerable body parts and reducing impact forces, but lacked a common or clear definition. A preference for practical over academic knowledge was found. Anecdotal information was generally trusted, as were running stores with gait assessment, but not health professionals.
Conclusion

People often have inconsistent ideas about barefoot and minimalist running, which are often formed by potentially biased sources, which may lead people to make poor decisions about barefoot and minimalist running. It is important to provide high-quality information to enable better decisions to be made about barefoot and minimalist running.

Statement of contribution

What is already known on this subject?
There is no known work on the psychology behind barefoot and minimalist running. We believe our study is the first qualitative study to have investigated views of this increasingly popular form of running.
What does this study add?
The results suggest that although barefoot running is considered ‘natural’, it is also considered ‘extreme’. Minimalist running, however, did not receive such aversive reactions.
‘Support’ was a common concern among runners. Although ‘support’ reassured against concerns and was seen as central in protecting vulnerable body parts and reducing impact forces, it lacked a common or clear definition.
A preference for practical over academic knowledge was found. Anecdotal information was generally trusted, as were running stores with gait assessment, but not health professionals.

Survivorship and Clinical Outcome of the Minimally Invasive Uniglide Medial Fixed Bearing, All-polyethylene Tibia, Unicompartmental Knee Arthroplasty at a Mean Follow-up of 7.3 Years

Background: Medial UKA performed in England and Wales represents 7 to 11% of all knee arthroplasty procedures, and is most commonly performed using mobile-bearing designs. Fixed bearing eliminates the risk of bearing dislocation, however some studies have shown higher revision rates for all-polyethylene tibial components compared to those that utilize metal-backed implants. The aim of the study is to analyse survivorship and maximum 8-year clinical outcome of medial fixed bearing, Uniglide unicompartmental knee arthroplasty performed using an all-polyethylene tibial component with a minimal invasive approach. Methods: Between 2002 and 2009, 270 medial fixed UKAs were performed in our unit. Patients were reviewed pre-operatively, 5 and 8 years post-operatively. Clinical and radiographic reviews were carried out. Patients’ outcome scores (Oxford, WOMAC and American Knee Score) were documented in our database and analysed. Results: Survival and clinical outcome data of 236 knees with a mean 7.3 years follow-up are reported. Every patient with less than 4.93 years follow-up underwent a revision. The patients’ average age at the time of surgery was 69.5 years. The American Knee Society Pain and Function scores, the Oxford Knee Score and the WOMAC score all improved significantly. The 5 years survival rate was 94.1% with implant revision surgery as an end point. The estimated 10 years survival rate is 91.3%. 14 patients were revised before the 5 year follow-up. Conclusion: Fixed bearing Uniglide UKA with an all-polyethylene tibial component is a valuable tool in the management of a medial compartment osteoarthritis, affording good short term survivorship.

Efeito da ligadura de reposicionamento do perónio em basquetebolistas adultos com instabilidade crónica da tibiotársica

Introdução: A instabilidade crónica da tibiotársica apresenta uma elevada incidência e prevalência nos basquetebolistas, pelo que é fundamental aprofundar as estratégias existentes para a redução das limitações funcionais e mecânicas decorrentes desta condição. Objetivo: comparar o efeito da ligadura de reposicionamento do perónio segundo Mulligan com o de uma ligadura placebo imediatamente após a sua aplicação e após o teste de corrida (Yo-Yo IRT). Metodologia: Estudo cruzado de amostras emparelhadas. Participantes: 16 basquetebolistas adultos (10 homens, 6 mulheres) com instabilidade crónica da tibiotársica com idade média de 21,50 ± 2,76 anos. Procedimentos de avaliação e intervenção: Avaliação do controlo postural estático (teste de apoio unipodal com os olhos fechados numa plataforma de forças durante 15 segundos), performance funcional (hop test em 8 e hop test lateral) e controlo neuromuscular (tempo de latência do músculo longo peronial durante o movimento de inversão repentina) em duas sessões: Mulligan e Placebo. Resultados: Em ambos Hop tests não houve um efeito significativo para o fator ligadura (p>0,17) mas houve para o fator tempo (p<0,03). No tempo de latência do músculo longo peronial, houve um efeito significativo para o fator tempo (p=0,042) e interação significativa entre os dois fatores (p=0,028). Em relação ao controlo postural, nas variáveis de deslocamento do CoP em x e y, área de deslocamento do CoP, velocidade de deslocamento do CoP, e comprimento total do CoP não houve nenhum efeito significativo (p≥0,10). Conclusão: Não há diferenças no controlo postural estático nem na performance funcional de basquetebolistas com instabilidade crónica da tibiotársica entre a ligadura de reposicionamento do perónio de Mulligan e uma ligadura placebo. Contudo, a ligadura de Mulligan parece reduzir o tempo de latência do longo peronial após a corrida quando comparada com uma ligadura placebo.

Asymptotic Change-Point Analysis of the Dependencies in Time Series

In recent papers, Wied and his coauthors have introduced change-point procedures to detect and estimate structural breaks in the correlation between time series. To prove the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic and stopping time as well as the change-point estimation rate, they use an extended functional Delta method and assume nearly constant expectations and variances of the time series. In this thesis, we allow asymptotically infinitely many structural breaks in the means and variances of the time series. For this setting, we present test statistics and stopping times which are used to determine whether or not the correlation between two time series is and stays constant, respectively. Additionally, we consider estimates for change-points in the correlations. The employed nonparametric statistics depend on the means and variances. These (nuisance) parameters are replaced by estimates in the course of this thesis. We avoid assuming a fixed form of these estimates but rather we use "blackbox" estimates, i.e. we derive results under assumptions that these estimates fulfill. These results are supplement with examples. This thesis is organized in seven sections. In Section 1, we motivate the issue and present the mathematical model. In Section 2, we consider a posteriori and sequential testing procedures, and investigate convergence rates for change-point estimation, always assuming that the means and the variances of the time series are known. In the following sections, the assumptions of known means and variances are relaxed. In Section 3, we present the assumptions for the mean and variance estimates that we will use for the mean in Section 4, for the variance in Section 5, and for both parameters in Section 6. Finally, in Section 7, a simulation study illustrates the finite sample behaviors of some testing procedures and estimates.

Oclusão percutânea do apêndice auricular esquerdo e estrutura auricular: efeito na função mecânica e endócrina auricular

Mestrado em Tecnologia de Diagnóstico e Intervenção Cardiovascular - Área de especialização: Intervenção Cardiovascular.

Comparative study of stereopsis with three different tests: TNO®, Stereo Acuity Test Fly® and StereoTAB® in students in higher school

Purpose: Stereopsis is the perception of depth based on retinal disparity. Global stereopsis depends on the process of random dot stimuli and local stereopsis depends on contour perception. The aim of this study was to correlate 3 stereopsis tests: TNO®, StereoTA B®, and Fly Stereo Acuity Test® and to study the sensitivity and correlation between them, using TNO® as the gold standard. Other variables as near convergence point, vergences, symptoms and optical correction were correlated with the 3 tests. Materials and Methods: Forty-nine students from Escola Superior de Tecnologia da Saúde de Lisboa (ESTeSL), aged 18-26 years old were included. Results: The stereopsis mean (standard-deviation-SD) values in each test were: TNO® = 87.04” ±84.09”; FlyTest® = 38.18” ±34.59”; StereoTA B® = 124.89’’ ±137.38’’. About the coefficient of determination: TNO® and StereoTA B® with R2 = 0.6 e TNO® and FlyTest® with R2 =0.2. Pearson correlation coefficient shows a positive correlation between TNO® and StereoTA B® (r = 0.784 with α = 0.01). Phi coefficient shows a strong and positive association between TNO® and StereoTA B® (Φ = 0.848 with α = 0.01). In the ROC Curve, the StereoTA B® has an area under the curve bigger than the FlyTest® with a sensivity of 92.3% for 94.4% of specificity, so it means that the test is sensitive with a good discriminative power. Conclusion: We conclude that the use of Stereopsis tests to study global Stereopsis are an asset for clinical use. This type of test is more sensitive, revealing changes in Stereopsis when it is actually changed, unlike the test Stereopsis, which often indicates normal Stereopsis, camouflaging a Stereopsis change. We noted also that the StereoTA B ® is very sensitive and despite being a digital application, possessed good correlation with the TNO®.

Estudo comparativo da estereopsia com três testes diferentes: TNO®, Fly Stereo Acuity Test® e StereoTAB® em estudantes do ensino superior

Estereopsia define-se como a perceção de profundidade baseada na disparidade retiniana. A estereopsia global depende do processamento de estímulos de pontos aleatórios e a estereopsia local depende da perceção de contornos. O objetivo deste estudo é correlacionar três testes de estereopsia: TNO®, StereoTAB® e Fly Stereo Acuity Test® e verificar a sensibilidade e correlação entre eles, tendo o TNO® como gold standard. Incluíram-se 49 estudantes da Escola Superior de Tecnologia da Saúde de Lisboa (ESTeSL) entre os 18 e 26 anos. As variáveis ponto próximo de convergência (ppc), vergências, sintomatologia e correção ótica foram correlacionadas com os três testes. Os valores médios (desvios-padrão) de estereopsia foram: TNO® = 87,04’’ ±84,09’’; FlyTest® = 38,18’’ ±34,59’’; StereoTAB® = 124,89’’ ±137,38’’. Coeficiente de determinação: TNO® e StereoTAB® com R2=0,6 e TNO® e FlyTest® com R2=0,2. O coeficiente de correlação de Pearson mostra uma correlação positiva de entre o TNO® e o StereoTAB® (r=0,784 com α=0,01). O coeficiente de associação de Phi mostrou uma relação positiva forte entre o TNO® e StereoTAB® (Φ=0,848 com α=0,01). Na curva ROC, o StereoTAB® possui uma área sob a curva maior que o FlyTest®, apresentando valor de sensibilidade de 92,3% para uma especificidade de 94,4%, tornando-o num teste sensível e com bom poder discriminativo.

Exergetic, energetic, economic and environmental evaluation of concentrated solar power plants in Libya

The PhD project addresses the potential of using concentrating solar power (CSP) plants as a viable alternative energy producing system in Libya. Exergetic, energetic, economic and environmental analyses are carried out for a particular type of CSP plants. The study, although it aims a particular type of CSP plant – 50 MW parabolic trough-CSP plant, it is sufficiently general to be applied to other configurations. The novelty of the study, in addition to modeling and analyzing the selected configuration, lies in the use of a state-of-the-art exergetic analysis combined with the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The modeling and simulation of the plant is carried out in chapter three and they are conducted into two parts, namely: power cycle and solar field. The computer model developed for the analysis of the plant is based on algebraic equations describing the power cycle and the solar field. The model was solved using the Engineering Equation Solver (EES) software; and is designed to define the properties at each state point of the plant and then, sequentially, to determine energy, efficiency and irreversibility for each component. The developed model has the potential of using in the preliminary design of CSPs and, in particular, for the configuration of the solar field based on existing commercial plants. Moreover, it has the ability of analyzing the energetic, economic and environmental feasibility of using CSPs in different regions of the world, which is illustrated for the Libyan region in this study. The overall feasibility scenario is completed through an hourly analysis on an annual basis in chapter Four. This analysis allows the comparison of different systems and, eventually, a particular selection, and it includes both the economic and energetic components using the “greenius” software. The analysis also examined the impact of project financing and incentives on the cost of energy. The main technological finding of this analysis is higher performance and lower levelized cost of electricity (LCE) for Libya as compared to Southern Europe (Spain). Therefore, Libya has the potential of becoming attractive for the establishment of CSPs in its territory and, in this way, to facilitate the target of several European initiatives that aim to import electricity generated by renewable sources from North African and Middle East countries. The analysis is presented a brief review of the current cost of energy and the potential of reducing the cost from parabolic trough- CSP plant. Exergetic and environmental life cycle assessment analyses are conducted for the selected plant in chapter Five; the objectives are 1) to assess the environmental impact and cost, in terms of exergy of the life cycle of the plant; 2) to find out the points of weakness in terms of irreversibility of the process; and 3) to verify whether solar power plants can reduce environmental impact and the cost of electricity generation by comparing them with fossil fuel plants, in particular, Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) plant and oil thermal power plant. The analysis also targets a thermoeconomic analysis using the specific exergy costing (SPECO) method to evaluate the level of the cost caused by exergy destruction. The main technological findings are that the most important contribution impact lies with the solar field, which reports a value of 79%; and the materials with the vi highest impact are: steel (47%), molten salt (25%) and synthetic oil (21%). The “Human Health” damage category presents the highest impact (69%) followed by the “Resource” damage category (24%). In addition, the highest exergy demand is linked to the steel (47%); and there is a considerable exergetic demand related to the molten salt and synthetic oil with values of 25% and 19%, respectively. Finally, in the comparison with fossil fuel power plants (NGCC and Oil), the CSP plant presents the lowest environmental impact, while the worst environmental performance is reported to the oil power plant followed by NGCC plant. The solar field presents the largest value of cost rate, where the boiler is a component with the highest cost rate among the power cycle components. The thermal storage allows the CSP plants to overcome solar irradiation transients, to respond to electricity demand independent of weather conditions, and to extend electricity production beyond the availability of daylight. Numerical analysis of the thermal transient response of a thermocline storage tank is carried out for the charging phase. The system of equations describing the numerical model is solved by using time-implicit and space-backward finite differences and which encoded within the Matlab environment. The analysis presented the following findings: the predictions agree well with the experiments for the time evolution of the thermocline region, particularly for the regions away from the top-inlet. The deviations observed in the near-region of the inlet are most likely due to the high-level of turbulence in this region due to the localized level of mixing resulting; a simple analytical model to take into consideration this increased turbulence level was developed and it leads to some improvement of the predictions; this approach requires practically no additional computational effort and it relates the effective thermal diffusivity to the mean effective velocity of the fluid at each particular height of the system. Altogether the study indicates that the selected parabolic trough-CSP plant has the edge over alternative competing technologies for locations where DNI is high and where land usage is not an issue, such as the shoreline of Libya.

Modelo de Scoring para o Crédito à Habitação: Um estudo de caso em Portugal

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Gestão das Instituições Financeiras