Estimating the size of the population of persons who inject drugs in the island of Montréal, Canada, using a six-source capture-recapture model

BACKGROUND: To plan and implement services to persons who inject drugs (PWID), knowing their number is essential. For the island of Montréal, Canada, the only estimate, of 11,700 PWID, was obtained in 1996 through a capture-recapture method. Thirteen years later, this study was undertaken to produce a new estimate. METHODS: PWID were defined as individuals aged 14-65 years, having injected recently and living on the island of Montréal. The study period was 07/01/2009 to 06/30/2010. An estimate was produced using a six-source capture-recapture log-linear regression method. The data sources were two epidemiological studies and four drug dependence treatment centres. Model selection was conducted in two steps, the first focusing on interactions between sources and the second, on age group and gender as covariates and as modulators of interactions. RESULTS: A total of 1480 PWID were identified in the six capture sources. They corresponded to 1132 different individuals. Based on the best-fitting model, which included age group and sex as covariates and six two-source interactions (some modulated by age), the estimated population was 3910 PWID (95% confidence intervals (CI): 3180-4900) which represents a prevalence of 2.8 (95% CI: 2.3-3.5) PWID per 1000 persons aged 14-65 years. CONCLUSIONS: The 2009-2010 estimate represents a two-third reduction compared to the one for 1996. The multisource capture-recapture method is useful to produce estimates of the size of the PWID population. It is of particular interest when conducted at regular intervals thus allowing for close monitoring of the injection phenomenon.

Methodological aspects of a mathematical programming model to evaluate soil tillage technologies in a risky environment

In this work we develop a methodology for the economic evaluation of soil tillage technologies, in a risky environment, and to capture the influence of farmer behaviour on his technology choice. The model has short-term activities, that change with the type of year, and long-term activities, in which sets of traction investment activities are included. Although these activities do not change with the type of year, they lead to different availability of resources for each type of year, since the same tractor has different available fieldwork days under different weather conditions. We prove that the model is sensitive to the greater income variability resulting from the use of alternative technologies and to the balance between income and risk, accounting for the probability of occurrence of each state of nature and giving an investment solution that considers the best production plan for each type of year. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecologic zonation model of the benthic foraminifera and thecamoebians of Guadiana river estuary and application in paleoenvironmental reconstruction

Tese de doutoramento, Ciências do Mar ( Processos de Ecossistemas Marinhos), Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2012

A 30-Day-Ahead Forecast Model for Grass Pollen in North London, United Kingdom

A 30-day ahead forecast method has been developed for grass pollen at north London. The total period of the grass pollen season is covered by eight multiple regression models, each covering a 10-day period running consecutively from 21st May to 8th August. This means that three models were used for each 30-day forecast. The forecast models were produced using grass pollen and environmental data from 1961-1999 and tested on data from 2000 and 2002. Model accuracy was judged in two ways: the number of times the forecast model was able to successfully predict the severity (relative to the 1961-1999 dataset as a whole) of grass pollen counts in each of the eight forecast periods on a scale of one to four; and the number of times the forecast model was able to predict whether grass pollen counts were higher or lower than the mean. The models achieved 62.5% accuracy in both assessment years when predicting the relative severity of grass pollen counts on a scale of one to four, which equates to six of the eight 10-day periods being forecast correctly. The models attained 87.5% and 100% accuracy in 2000 and 2002 respectively when predicting whether grass pollen counts would be higher or lower than the mean. Attempting to predict pollen counts during distinct 10-day periods throughout the grass pollen season is a novel approach. The models also employed original methodology in the use of winter averages of the North Atlantic Oscillation to forecast 10-day means of allergenic pollen counts.

Generative Divergent Analysis as a Model for Reflection Illustrated with Reference to an Early-years Reception Class and Wicker Settee

Generative divergent analysis (GDA) is a creative additive approach to raising insignificant details of experience to significance. A schematic view of the model highlights use of evocative objects as starting point for ‘turning towards’, ‘turning away’ and ‘being-in-relation-to’ as part of an ongoing burgeoning of experience.The model is exemplified by focusing on a wicker settee as an evocative object that was noticed in an early-years reception class. Revisiting the object generated several speculative ideas relating to the hidden curriculum and energies of childhood. Poetry and song were used during the revisiting in order to develop a more direct experience in addition to the more contemplative awareness that was evoked during the first encounters. As an additive process the outcome of GDA takes the form of unfinished resources for thinking.

An algebra and conceptual model for semantic tagging of collaborative digital libraries

Cost-effective semantic description and annotation of shared knowledge resources has always been of great importance for digital libraries and large scale information systems in general. With the emergence of the Social Web and Web 2.0 technologies, a more effective semantic description and annotation, e.g., folksonomies, of digital library contents is envisioned to take place in collaborative and personalised environments. However, there is a lack of foundation and mathematical rigour for coping with contextualised management and retrieval of semantic annotations throughout their evolution as well as diversity in users and user communities. In this paper, we propose an ontological foundation for semantic annotations of digital libraries in terms of flexonomies. The proposed theoretical model relies on a high dimensional space with algebraic operators for contextualised access of semantic tags and annotations. The set of the proposed algebraic operators, however, is an adaptation of the set theoretic operators selection, projection, difference, intersection, union in database theory. To this extent, the proposed model is meant to lay the ontological foundation for a Digital Library 2.0 project in terms of geometric spaces rather than logic (description) based formalisms as a more efficient and scalable solution to the semantic annotation problem in large scale.

A relação trabalho-família : o desafio para ontem

Tese de doutoramento, Psicologia (Psicologia dos Recursos Humanos, do Trabalho e das Organizações), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Psicologia, 2016

The trade specialization of SANE: evidence from manufacturing industries

This paper studies the evolution of the foreign trade specialization in manufacturing sectors of South Africa, Algeria, Nigeria and Egypt. These four countries, the so-called SANE, have recently been viewed as Africa’s best chance of producing an economic bloc whose role for Africa might be comparable to that of the BRIC economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China for the world economy. Using data on trade flows since mid-1970s, the results show that the SANE group has experienced few changes in its trade structure, which is still based on low-technology and slow-growth world demand sectors. The degree of persistence in the specialization model is higher in the case of Algeria and Nigeria, where the dependence on products based on natural resources is stronger.

A model for information retrieval driven by conceptual spaces

A retrieval model describes the transformation of a query into a set of documents. The question is: what drives this transformation? For semantic information retrieval type of models this transformation is driven by the content and structure of the semantic models. In this case, Knowledge Organization Systems (KOSs) are the semantic models that encode the meaning employed for monolingual and cross-language retrieval. The focus of this research is the relationship between these meanings’ representations and their role and potential in augmenting existing retrieval models effectiveness. The proposed approach is unique in explicitly interpreting a semantic reference as a pointer to a concept in the semantic model that activates all its linked neighboring concepts. It is in fact the formalization of the information retrieval model and the integration of knowledge resources from the Linguistic Linked Open Data cloud that is distinctive from other approaches. The preprocessing of the semantic model using Formal Concept Analysis enables the extraction of conceptual spaces (formal contexts)that are based on sub-graphs from the original structure of the semantic model. The types of conceptual spaces built in this case are limited by the KOSs structural relations relevant to retrieval: exact match, broader, narrower, and related. They capture the definitional and relational aspects of the concepts in the semantic model. Also, each formal context is assigned an operational role in the flow of processes of the retrieval system enabling a clear path towards the implementations of monolingual and cross-lingual systems. By following this model’s theoretical description in constructing a retrieval system, evaluation results have shown statistically significant results in both monolingual and bilingual settings when no methods for query expansion were used. The test suite was run on the Cross-Language Evaluation Forum Domain Specific 2004-2006 collection with additional extensions to match the specifics of this model.

A generic model for integration of Quality, Environment and Safety Management Systems

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to propose a generic model of Integrated Management System of Quality, Environment and Safety (IMS-QES) that can be adapted and progressively to assimilate various Management Systems, of which highlights: ISO 9001 for Quality; ISO 14001 for Environment; OHSAS 18001 for Occupational Health and Safety. Design/methodology/approach – The model was designed in the real environment of a Portuguese Organization and 160 employees were surveyed. The rate response was equal to 86 percent. The conceived model was implemented in a first phase for the integration of Quality, Environment and Safety Management Systems. Findings – Among the main findings of the survey the paper highlights: the elimination of conflicts between individual systems with resources optimization; creation of added value to the business by eliminating several types of wastes; the integrated management of sustainability components in a global market; the improvement of partnerships with suppliers of goods and services; reducing the number of internal and external audits. Originality/value – This case study is one of the first Portuguese empirical researches about IMS-QES and the paper believes that it can be useful in the creation of a Portuguese guideline for integration, namely the Quality Management Systems; Environmental Management Systems and Occupational Health and Safety Management Systems among others.

Gestão estratégica: balanced scorecard para uma entidade hospitalar

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças Orientador: Doutora Cláudia Maria Ferreira Pereira Lopes

Distributed energy resources management with cyber-physical SCADA in the context of future smart grids

In the energy management of a small power system, the scheduling of the generation units is a crucial problem for which adequate methodologies can maximize the performance of the energy supply. This paper proposes an innovative methodology for distributed energy resources management. The optimal operation of distributed generation, demand response and storage resources is formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming model (MILP) and solved by a deterministic optimization technique CPLEX-based implemented in General Algebraic Modeling Systems (GAMS). The paper deals with a vision for the grids of the future, focusing on conceptual and operational aspects of electrical grids characterized by an intensive penetration of DG, in the scope of competitive environments and using artificial intelligence methodologies to attain the envisaged goals. These concepts are implemented in a computational framework which includes both grid and market simulation.

Forest resources in Graciosa Island (Azores) : biomass availability for sustainable energetic use

Dissertação de Mestrado em Ambiente, Saúde e Segurança.

Estágio na empresa SPECMAN para a prática de técnicas de controlo da condição

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica

Analysis of the domain of applicability of an algorithm for a resources system selection problem for Distributed/Agile/Virtual Enterprises integration

The process of resources systems selection takes an important part in Distributed/Agile/Virtual Enterprises (D/A/V Es) integration. However, the resources systems selection is still a difficult matter to solve in a D/A/VE, as it is pointed out in this paper. Globally, we can say that the selection problem has been equated from different aspects, originating different kinds of models/algorithms to solve it. In order to assist the development of a web prototype tool (broker tool), intelligent and flexible, that integrates all the selection model activities and tools, and with the capacity to adequate to each D/A/V E project or instance (this is the major goal of our final project), we intend in this paper to show: a formulation of a kind of resources selection problem and the limitations of the algorithms proposed to solve it. We formulate a particular case of the problem as an integer programming, which is solved using simplex and branch and bound algorithms, and identify their performance limitations (in terms of processing time) based on simulation results. These limitations depend on the number of processing tasks and on the number of pre-selected resources per processing tasks, defining the domain of applicability of the algorithms for the problem studied. The limitations detected open the necessity of the application of other kind of algorithms (approximate solution algorithms) outside the domain of applicability founded for the algorithms simulated. However, for a broker tool it is very important the knowledge of algorithms limitations, in order to, based on problem features, develop and select the most suitable algorithm that guarantees a good performance.