Optimal Time Series Momentum

We develop a continuous-time asset price model to capture the timeseries momentum documented recently. The underlying stochastic delay differentialsystem facilitates the analysis of effects of different time horizons used bymomentum trading. By studying an optimal asset allocation problem, we find thatthe performance of time series momentum strategy can be significantly improvedby combining with market fundamentals and timing opportunity with respect tomarket trend and volatility. Furthermore, the results also hold for different timehorizons, the out-of-sample tests and with short-sale constraints. The outperformanceof the optimal strategy is immune to market states, investor sentiment andmarket volatility.

Ionic liquids for efficient hydrogen sulfide and thiol scavenging

Functionalised pyridinium and ammonium ionic liquids bearing a Michael acceptor are shown to scavenge H₂S gas and various thiols, in most cases, without the aid of any added bases. Utilising the effective non-volatility of ionic liquids and ‘tagging’ malodourous substances to an ionic matrix renders them odourless.

Time-Varying Liquidity and Momentum Profits

A basic intuition is that arbitrage is easier when markets are most liquid. Surprisingly, we find that momentum profits are markedly larger in liquid market states. This finding is not explained by variation in liquidity risk, time-varying exposure to risk factors, or changes in macroeconomic condition, cross-sectional return dispersion, and investor sentiment. The predictive performance of aggregate market illiquidity for momentum profits uniformly exceed that of market return and market volatility states. While momentum strategies are unconditionally unprofitable in US, Japan, and Eurozone countries in the last decade, they are substantial following liquid market states.

Gas generation in interconnected power systems with high wind power penetration

Increasing installed capacities of wind power in an effort to achieve sustainable power systems for future generations pose problems for system operators. Volatility in generation volumes due to the adoption of stochastic wind power is increasing. Storage has been shown to act as a buffer for these stochastic energy sources, facilitating the integration of renewable energy into a historically inflexible power system. This paper examines peak and off peak benefits realised by installing a short term discharge storage unit in a system with a high penetration of wind power in 2020. A fully representative unit commitment and economic dispatch model is used to analyse two scenarios, one ‘with storage’ and one ‘without storage’. Key findings of this preliminary study show that wind curtailment can be reduced in the storage scenario, with a larger reduction in peak time ramping of gas generators is realised.

Outperformance in exchange-traded fund pricing deviations: Generalized control of data snooping bias

An investigation into exchange-traded fund (ETF) outperforrnance during the period 2008-2012 is undertaken utilizing a data set of 288 U.S. traded securities. ETFs are tested for net asset value (NAV) premium, underlying index and market benchmark outperformance, with Sharpe, Treynor, and Sortino ratios employed as risk-adjusted performance measures. A key contribution is the application of an innovative generalized stepdown procedure in controlling for data snooping bias. We find that a large proportion of optimized replication and debt asset class ETFs display risk-adjusted premiums with energy and precious metals focused funds outperforming the S&P 500 market benchmark. 

Combining Bio- and Chemo-catalysis for the Conversion of Bio-Renewable Alcohols

The use of biomass as a source of fuel is on the sharp increase. In parallel with this expansion, new chemical processes and technologies are required to improve efficiency, sustainability, and profitability.
Biocatalytic and chemocatalytic methods can be combined to affect the conversion of bio-alcohols, and convert them to valuable chemical targets in an atom efficient and environmentally benign manor. Fermentation offers a useful first step in biomass conversion, as whole cell biocatalysts can provide sustained activity when fed with crude biomass. Coupling this with homogeneous and/or heterogeneous catalysis enables the preparation of a diverse product range. The transition between biocatalytic and chemocatalytic steps can be assisted by utilising ionic liquids.
Ionic liquids have potential roles in biorefineries that generate alcohols; as an extractant, reaction medium, and catalytic reagent. Underpinning the potential of ionic liquids in this area is: 1. the ability of ionic liquids to solubilize polyols and alcohols; 2. the facility to functionalise ionic liquids and tune properties; 3. the low volatility of ionic liquids.
The FP7 project GRAIL will be highlighted; this project focusses on the utilisation of glycerol formed as a by-product in biodiesel synthesis.

Identifying the relative importance of stock characteristics

There is no consensus in the literature as to which stock characteristic best explains returns. In this study, we employ a novel econometric approach better suited than the traditional characteristic sorting method to answer this question for the UK market. We evaluate the relative explanatory power of market, size, momentum, volatility, liquidity and book-to-market factors in a semiparametric characteristic-based factor model which does not require constructing characteristic portfolios. We find that momentum is the most important factor and liquidity is the least important based on their relative contribution to the fit of the model and the proportion of sample months for which factor returns are significant. Overall, this study provides strong evidence to support that the momentum characteristic can best explain stock returns in the UK market. The econometric approach employed in this study is a novel way to assess relevant investment risk in international financial markets outside U.S. Moreover, multinational institutions and investors can use this approach to identify regional factors in order to diversify their portfolios.

Influence of Soil and Irrigation Management on the Quality of Seedless Crimson Table Grapes

The market for table grapes is moving into mass production of specialty seed-less grapes in covered areas, aiming at obtaining premium prices with early or late production of high quality products. Production of quality seedless grapes is not straightforward since it is requires the correct combination of various independent characteristics, such as color, sugars, size and quantity at the right moment for successful harvesting and marketing. The present study was carried out at the two largest Portuguese producers located in Alentejo, and has the objective of studying the effect of irrigation management strategies and two different soils on the various relevant parameters for successful production and marketing. The management strategies were the application of ten day stress at the end of the cycle, in order to promote early maturing of the grapes. Three different timings of the stress were applied. Soil moisture, sap flow, bark thickness, as well as leaf water potential, stomatal conductance and chlorophyll content were measured regularly during the production season. The results indicate that the roots explore a rather large soil volume and the plants can successfully withstand reasonable periods of drought without significant changes to the plant physiology. Additionally late rains can mask the effect of any farmer applied drought and invalidate any farmer induced stress to the plants. Water-logged soils tend to cause early onset of maturity, but cause the ripening stage to extend over a longer period of time, and thus, in effect result in a delay in the harvest date. Topography also has some effect on the ripening, since hot air tends to accumulate under the plastic at the higher areas of the field. This work is funded by PRODER, 4.1, within the scope of project MORECRIMSON

Essays on energy derivatives pricing and financial risk management

This thesis consists of an introductory chapter (essay I) and five more empirical essays on electricity markets and CO2 spot price behaviour, derivatives pricing analysis and hedging. Essay I presents the structure of the thesis and electricity markets functioning and characteristics, as well as the type of products traded, to be analyzed on the following essays. In the second essay we conduct an empirical study on co-movements in electricity markets resorting to wavelet analysis, discussing long-term dynamics and markets integration. Essay three is about hedging performance and multiscale relationships in the German electricity spot and futures markets, also using wavelet analysis. We concentrate the investigation on the relationship between coherence evolution and hedge ratio analysis, on a time-frequency-scale approach, between spot and futures which conditions the effectiveness of the hedging strategy. Essays four, five and six are interrelated between them and with the other two previous essays given the nature of the commodity analyzed, CO2 emission allowances, traded in electricity markets. Relationships between electricity prices, primary energy fuel prices and carbon dioxide permits are analyzed on essay four. The efficiency of the European market for allowances is examined taking into account markets heterogeneity. Essay five analyzes stylized statistical properties of the recent traded asset CO2 emission allowances, for spot and futures returns, examining also the relation linking convenience yield and risk premium, for the German European Energy Exchange (EEX) between October 2005 and October 2009. The study was conducted through empirical estimations of CO2 allowances risk premium, convenience yield, and their relation. Future prices from an ex-post perspective are examined to show evidence for significant negative risk premium, or else a positive forward premium. Finally, essay six analyzes emission allowances futures hedging effectiveness, providing evidence for utility gains increases with investor’s preference over risk. Deregulation of electricity markets has led to higher uncertainty in electricity prices and by presenting these essays we try to shed new lights about structuring, pricing and hedging in this type of markets.

Treatment of natural gas streams with ionic liquids

Being of high relevance for many technological applications, the solubility of sour gases in solvents of low volatility is still poorly described and understood. Aiming at purifying natural gas streams, the present work contributes for a more detailed knowledge and better understanding of the solubility of sour gases in these fluids, in particularly on ionic liquids. A new apparatus, developed and validated specially for phase equilibria studies of this type of systems, allowed the study of the solvent basicity, molecular weight and polarity influence on the absorption of carbon dioxide and methane. The non ideality of carbon dioxide solutions in ionic liquids and other low volatile solvents, with which carbon dioxide is known to form electron donor-acceptor complexes, is discussed, allowing the development of a correlation able to describe the carbon dioxide solubility in low volatile solvents. Furthermore, the non ideality of solutions of light compounds, such as SO2, NH3 and H2S, in ionic liquids is also investigated and shown to present negative deviations to the ideality in the liquid phase, that can be predicted by the Flory-Huggins model. For last, the effect of the ionic liquid polarity, described through the Kamlet-Taft parameters, on the CO2/CH4 and H2S/CH4 selectivities is also evaluated and shown to stand as a viable tool for the selection of ionic liquids with enhanced selectivities.

Production of biodiesel from the resources endogeneous of Timor Leste

Os biocombustíveis têm estado na linha da frente das políticas energéticas mundiais visto que as suas vantagens conseguem colmatar as incertezas e resolver alguns dos problemas associados aos combustíveis fósseis. O biodiesel tem provado ser um combustível muito fiável, alternativo ao petrodiesel. É uma mistura de ésteres alquílicos produzidos a partir de óleos vegetais e gorduras animais através de uma reacção de transesterificação. Como combustível, o biodiesel é economicamente viável, socialmente responsável, tecnicamente compatível e ambientalmente amigável. O principal desafio associado ao seu desenvolvimento tem a ver com a escolha de matéria-prima para a sua produção. Nos países do terceiro mundo, óleos alimentares são mais importantes para alimentar pessoas do que fazer funcionar carros. Esta tese tem como objectivos produzir/processar biodiesel a partir de recursos endógenos de Timor-Leste e medir/prever as propriedades termodinâmicas do biodiesel, a partir das dos esteres alquílicos. A síntese do biodiesel a partir dos óleos de Aleurites moluccana, Jatropha curcas e borras de café foram aqui estudados. As propriedades termodinâmicas como densidade, viscosidade, tensão superficial, volatilidade e velocidade do som também foram medidas e estimadas usando modelos preditivos disponíveis na literatura, incluindo as equações de estado CPA e soft-SAFT. Timor-Leste é um país muito rico em recursos naturais, mas a maioria da população ainda vive na pobreza e na privação de acesso a serviços básicos e condições de vida decentes. A exploração de petróleo e gás no mar de Timor tem sido controlado pelo Fundo Petrolífero. O país ainda carece de electricidade e combustíveis que são cruciais para materializar as políticas de redução da pobreza. Como solução, o governo timorense criou recentemente o Plano Estratégico de Desenvolvimento a 20 anos cujas prioridades incluem trazer o desenvolvimento do petróleo do mar para a costa sul de Timor-Leste e desenvolver as energias renováveis. É neste último contexto que o biodiesel se insere. O seu desenvolvimento no país poderá ser uma solução para o fornecimento de electricidade, a criação de empregos e sobretudo o combate contra a pobreza e a privação. Para ser usado como combustível, no entanto, o biodiesel deve possuir propriedades termodinâmicas coerentes com as especificadas nas normas da ASTM D6751 (nos Estados Unidos) ou EN 14214 (na Europa) para garantir uma adequada ignição, atomização e combustão do biodiesel no motor.

Influência do risco de incumprimento nos retornos de capital

Sempre foi do interesse das instituições financeiras de crédito determinar o risco de incumprimento associado a uma empresa por forma a avaliar o seu perfil. No entanto, esta informação é útil a todos os stakeholders de uma empresa, já que também estes comprometem uma parte de si ao interagirem com esta. O aumento do número de insolvências nos últimos anos tem reafirmado a necessidade de ampliar e aprofundar a pesquisa sobre o stress financeiro. A identificação dos fatores que influenciam a determinação do preço dos ativos sempre foi do interesse de todos os stakeholders, por forma a antecipar a variação dos retornos e agir em sua conformidade. Nesta dissertação será estudada a influência do risco de incumprimento sobre os retornos de capital, usando como indicador do risco de incumprimento a probabilidade de incumprimento obtida segundo o modelo de opções de Merton (1974). Efetuou-se esta análise durante o período de Fevereiro de 2002 a Dezembro de 2011, utilizando dados de empresas Portuguesas, Espanholas e Gregas. Os resultados evidenciam uma relação negativa do risco de incumprimento com os retornos de capital, que é devida a um efeito momentum e à volatilidade. A par disso, também se demonstra que o tamanho e o book-to-market não são representativos do risco de incumprimento na amostra aqui utilizada, ao contrário do que Fama & French (1992; 1996) afirmavam.

Optimal alarms systems and its application to financial time series

This thesis focuses on the application of optimal alarm systems to non linear time series models. The most common classes of models in the analysis of real-valued and integer-valued time series are described. The construction of optimal alarm systems is covered and its applications explored. Considering models with conditional heteroscedasticity, particular attention is given to the Fractionally Integrated Asymmetric Power ARCH, FIAPARCH(p; d; q) model and an optimal alarm system is implemented, following both classical and Bayesian methodologies. Taking into consideration the particular characteristics of the APARCH(p; q) representation for financial time series, the introduction of a possible counterpart for modelling time series of counts is proposed: the INteger-valued Asymmetric Power ARCH, INAPARCH(p; q). The probabilistic properties of the INAPARCH(1; 1) model are comprehensively studied, the conditional maximum likelihood (ML) estimation method is applied and the asymptotic properties of the conditional ML estimator are obtained. The final part of the work consists on the implementation of an optimal alarm system to the INAPARCH(1; 1) model. An application is presented to real data series.

Analysis of the organic matter associated to sea salt : definition of potential molecular markers based on the volatile composition and presence of glycosidic derivatives and polysaccharides

Sea salt is a natural product obtained from the evaporation of seawater in saltpans due to the combined effect of wind and sunlight. Nowadays, there is a growing interest for protection and re-valorisation of saltpans intrinsically associated to the quality of sea salt that can be evaluated by its physico-chemical properties. These man-made systems can be located in different geographical areas presenting different environmental surroundings. During the crystallization process, organic compounds coming from these surroundings can be incorporated into sea salt crystals, influencing their final composition. The organic matter associated to sea salt arises from three main sources: algae, surrounding bacterial community, and anthropogenic activity. Based on the hypothesis that sea salt contains associated organic compounds that can be used as markers of the product, including saltpans surrounding environment, the aim of this PhD thesis was to identify these compounds. With this purpose, this work comprised: 1) a deep characterisation of the volatile composition of sea salt by headspace solid phase microextraction combined with comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography time-of-flight mass spectrometry (HS-SPME/GCGC–ToFMS) methodology, in search of potential sea salt volatile markers; 2) the development of a methodology to isolate the polymeric material potentially present in sea salt, in amounts that allow its characterisation in terms of polysaccharides and protein; and 3) to explore the possible presence of triacylglycerides. The high chromatographic resolution and sensitivity of GC×GC–ToFMS enabled the separation and identification of a higher number of volatile compounds from sea salt, about three folds, compared to unidimentional chromatography (GC–qMS). The chromatographic contour plots obtained revealed the complexity of marine salt volatile composition and confirmed the relevance of GC×GC–ToFMS for this type of analysis. The structured bidimentional chromatographic profile arising from 1D volatility and 2D polarity was demonstrated, allowing more reliable identifications. Results obtained for analysis of salt from two locations in Aveiro and harvested over three years suggest the loss of volatile compounds along the time of storage of the salt. From Atlantic Ocean salts of seven different geographical origins, all produced in 2007, it was possible to identify a sub-set of ten compounds present in all salts, namely 6-methyl-5-hepten-2-one, 2,2,6-trimethylcyclohexanone, isophorone, ketoisophorone, β-ionone-5,6-epoxide, dihydroactinidiolide, 6,10,14-trimethyl-2-pentadecanone, 3-hydroxy-2,4,4-trimethylpentyl 2-methylpropanoate, 2,4,4-trimethylpentane-1,3-diyl bis(2-methylpropanoate), and 2-ethyl-1-hexanol. These ten compounds were considered potential volatile markers of sea salt. Seven of these compounds are carotenoid-derived compounds, and the other three may result from the integration of compounds from anthropogenic activity as metabolites of marine organisms. The present PhD work also allowed the isolation and characterisation, for the first time, of polymeric material from sea salt, using 16 Atlantic Ocean salts. A dialysis-based methodology was developed to isolate the polymeric material from sea salt in amounts that allowed its characterisation. The median content of polymeric material isolated from the 16 salts was 144 mg per kg of salt, e.g. 0.014% (w/w). Mid-infrared spectroscopy and thermogravimetry revealed the main occurrence of sulfated polysaccharides, as well as the presence of protein in the polymeric material from sea salt. Sea salt polysaccharides were found to be rich in uronic acid residues (21 mol%), glucose (18), galactose (16), and fucose (13). Sulfate content represented a median of 45 mol%, being the median content of sulfated polysaccharides 461 mg/g of polymeric material, which accounted for 66 mg/kg of dry salt. Glycosidic linkage composition indicates that the main sugar residues that could carry one or more sulfate groups were identified as fucose and galactose. This fact allowed to infer that the polysaccharides from sea salt arise mainly from algae, due to their abundance and composition. The amino acid profile of the polymeric material from the 16 Atlantic Ocean salts showed as main residues, as medians, alanine (25 mol%), leucine (14), and valine (14), which are hydrophobic, being the median protein content 35 mg/g, i.e. 4,9 mg per kg of dry salt. Beside the occurrence of hydrophobic volatile compounds in sea salt, hydrophobic non-volatile compounds were also detected. Triacylglycerides were obtained from sea salt by soxhlet extraction with n-hexane. Fatty acid composition revealed palmitic acid as the major residue (43 mol%), followed by stearic (13), linolenic (13), oleic (12), and linoleic (9). Sea salt triacylglycerides median content was 1.5 mg per kg of dry salt. Both protein and triacylglycerides seem to arise from macro and microalgae, phytoplankton and cyanobacteria, due to their abundance and composition. Despite the variability resulting from saltpans surrounding environment, this PhD thesis allowed the identification of a sea salt characteristic organic compounds profile based on volatile compounds, polysaccharides, protein, and triacylglycerides.

Integer-valued APARCH processes in the analysis of time series of counts

The Asymmetric Power Arch representation for the volatility was introduced by Ding et al.(1993) in order to account for asymmetric responses in the volatility in the analysis of continuous-valued financial time series like, for instance, the log-return series of foreign exchange rates, stock indices or share prices. As reported by Brannas and Quoreshi (2010), asymmetric responses in volatility are also observed in time series of counts such as the number of intra-day transactions in stocks. In this work, an asymmetric power autoregressive conditional Poisson model is introduced for the analysis of time series of counts exhibiting asymmetric overdispersion. Basic probabilistic and statistical properties are summarized and parameter estimation is discussed. A simulation study is presented to illustrate the proposed model. Finally, an empirical application to a set of data concerning the daily number of stock transactions is also presented to attest for its practical applicability in data analysis.