Alive SMC^2: Bayesian model selection for low-count time series models with intractable likelihoods

In this paper we present a new method for performing Bayesian parameter inference and model choice for low count time series models with intractable likelihoods. The method involves incorporating an alive particle filter within a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm to create a novel pseudo-marginal algorithm, which we refer to as alive SMC^2. The advantages of this approach over competing approaches is that it is naturally adaptive, it does not involve between-model proposals required in reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo and does not rely on potentially rough approximations. The algorithm is demonstrated on Markov process and integer autoregressive moving average models applied to real biological datasets of hospital-acquired pathogen incidence, animal health time series and the cumulative number of poison disease cases in mule deer.

Local buckling studies of cold-formed steel compression members at elevated temperatures

Cold-formed steel members have been widely used in residential and commercial buildings as primary load bearing structural elements. They are often made of thin steel sheets and hence they are more susceptible to local buckling. The buckling behaviour of cold-formed steel compression members under fire conditions is not fully investigated yet and hence there is a lack of knowledge on the fire performance of cold-formed steel compression members. Current cold-formed steel design standards do not provide adequate design guidelines for the fire design of cold-formed steel compression members. Therefore a research project based on extensive experimental and numerical studies was undertaken to investigate the local buckling behaviour of light gauge cold-formed steel compression members under simulated fire conditions. First a series of 91 local buckling tests was conducted at ambient and uniform elevated temperatures up to 700oC on cold-formed lipped and unlipped channels. Suitable finite element models were then developed to simulate the behaviour of tested columns and were validated using test results. All the ultimate load capacity results for local buckling were compared with the predictions from the available design rules based on AS/NZS 4600, BS 5950 Part 5, Eurocode 3 Parts 1.2 and 1.3 and the direct strength method (DSM), based on which suitable recommendations have been made for the fire design of cold-formed steel compression members subject to local buckling at uniform elevated temperatures.

Scanning electron microscopy with energy dispersive spectroscopy and Raman and infrared spectroscopic study of tilleyite Ca5Si2O7(CO3)2-Y

The mineral tilleyite-Y, a carbonate-silicate of calcium, has been studied by scanning electron microscopy with chemical analysis using energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDX) and Raman and infrared spectroscopy. Multiple carbonate stretching modes are observed and support the concept of non-equivalent carbonate units in the tilleyite structure. Multiple Raman and infrared bands in the OH stretching region are observed, proving the existence of water in different molecular environments in the structure of tilleyite. Vibrational spectroscopy offers new information on the mineral tilleyite.

Crystal structures and hydrogen bonding in the anhydrous tryptaminium salts of the isomeric (2,4-dichlorophenoxy)acetic and (3,5-dichlorophenoxy)acetic acids

The anhydrous salts of 1H-indole-3-ethanamine (tryptamine) with isomeric (2,4-dichlorophenoxy)acetic acid (2,4-D) and (3,5-dichlorophenoxy)acetic (3,5-D), C10H13N2+ (C8H5Cl2O3)-, [(I) and (II), respectively] have been determined and their one-dimensional hydrogen-bonded polymeric structures are described. In the crystal of (I),the aminium H-atoms are involved in three separate inter-species N-H...O hydrogen-bonding interactions, two with carboxyl O-atom acceptors and the third in an asymmetric three-centre bidentate carboxyl O,O' chelate [graph set R2/1(4)]. The indole H-atom forms an N-H...O~carboxyl~ hydrogen bond, extending the chain structure along the b axial direction. In (II), two of the three aminium H-atoms are also involved in N-H...O(carboxyl) hydrogen bonds similar to (I) but with the third, a three-centre asymmetric interaction with carboxyl and phenoxy O-atoms is found [graph set R2/1(5)]. The chain polymeric extension is also along b. There are no pi--pi ring interactions in either of the structures. The aminium side chain conformations differ significantly between the two structures, reflecting the conformational ambivalence of the tryptaminium cation, as found also in the benzoate salts.

All horticulture factsheets (Part 2)

Teaching Resource materials prepared for DLB320 Landscape Horticulture (2015). CONTENTS 2 Old Brisbane Botanic Gardens Samples 3 Australian ICONS 4 Old Fashioned & Reliable 5 Palms & Bamboo 6 Cordylines & Dracaenas 7 Bromeliads & Succulents 8 Toxic & Poisonous Plants 9 Dangerous & Dirty Plants 10 Weeds, Pests & Diseases 11 Useful (Economic) Plants

Molecular recognition of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene by 6-aminohexanethiol and surface-enhanced Raman scattering sensor

2,4,6-trinitrotoluene (TNT) is one of the most commonly used nitro aromatic explosives in landmine, military and mining industry. This article demonstrates rapid and selective identification of TNT by surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS) using 6-aminohexanethiol (AHT) as a new recognition molecule. First, Meisenheimer complex formation between AHT and TNT is confirmed by the development of pink colour and appearance of new band around 500 nm in UV-visible spectrum. Solution Raman spectroscopy study also supported the AHT:TNT complex formation by demonstrating changes in the vibrational stretching of AHT molecule between 2800-3000 cm−1. For surface enhanced Raman spectroscopy analysis, a self-assembled monolayer (SAM) of AHT is formed over the gold nanostructure (AuNS) SERS substrate in order to selectively capture TNT onto the surface. Electrochemical desorption and X-ray photoelectron studies are performed over AHT SAM modified surface to examine the presence of free amine groups with appropriate orientation for complex formation. Further, AHT and butanethiol (BT) mixed monolayer system is explored to improve the AHT:TNT complex formation efficiency. Using a 9:1 AHT:BT mixed monolayer, a very low detection limit (LOD) of 100 fM TNT was realized. The new method delivers high selectivity towards TNT over 2,4 DNT and picric acid. Finally, real sample analysis is demonstrated by the extraction and SERS detection of 302 pM of TNT from spiked.

4.2.5 Environmental engineering

Th is landmark report on engineering and development is the fi rst of its kind to be produced by UNESCO, or indeed by any international organization. Containing highly informative and insightful contributions from 120 experts from all over the world, the report gives a new perspective on the very great importance of the engineer’s role in development. Advances in engineering have been central to human progress ever since the invention of the wheel. In the past hundred and fi fty years in particular, engineering and technology have transformed the world we live in, contributing to signifi cantly longer life expectancy and enhanced quality of life for large numbers of the world’s population. Yet improved healthcare, housing, nutrition, transport, communications, and the many other benefi ts engineering brings are distributed unevenly throughout the world. Millions of people do not have clean drinking water and proper sanitation, they do not have access to a medical centre, they may travel many miles on foot along unmade tracks every day to get to work or school...

Language Literacy and Numeracy in TAFE Diploma of Nursing (Enrolled/Division 2 Nursing)

This project aimed to identify current Language Literacy and Numeracy (LLN) and Inclusive Teaching and Learning Practices in a TAFE Diploma of Nursing (Enrolled/Division 2 Nursing). The key purpose of the study was to make recommendations for improving inclusive teaching practice and learning outcomes of students and for reducing student attrition, thereby increasing the employability of graduates in the health industry subsequent to course completion.

The Value of Financial Planning Advice: Process and Outcome Effects on Consumer Well-being [Time 1 and 2 Survey Summary Results]

While anecdotal evidence indicates financial advice affects consumers’ financial well-being, this research project is motivated by the absence of empirically-grounded research relating to the extent to which, and, importantly, how, financial planning advice contributes to broader client well-being. Accordingly, the aim of this project is to establish how the quality of financial planning advice can be optimised to add value, not only to clients’ financial situation, but also to broader aspects of their well-being. This broader construct of well-being captures a range of process and outcome factors that map to concepts of security, control, choice, mastery, and life satisfaction (Irving, 2012; Gallery, Gallery, Irving & Newton, 2011; Irving, Gallery, and Gallery, 2009). Financial planning is commonly purported to confer not only tangible benefits, but also intangible benefits, such as increased security and peace of mind that are considered as important, if not more important, than material outcomes. Such claims are intuitively appealing; however, little empirical evidence exists for the notion that engaging with a financial planner or adviser promotes peace of mind, feelings of security, and expands choices and possibilities. Nor is there evidence signalling what mechanisms might underpin such client benefits. In addressing this issue, we examine the financial planning advice (including financial product advice) provided to retail clients, and consider the short- and longer-term impacts on clients’ financial satisfaction and broader well-being. To this end, we examine both process (e.g., how financial planning advice is given) and outcome (e.g., financial situation) effects.

Fire design rules for load bearing cold-formed steel frame walls exposed to realistic design fire curves

Light gauge Steel Frame (LSF) walls are extensively used in the building industry due to the many advantages they provide over other wall systems. Although LSF walls have been used widely, fire design of LSF walls is based on approximate prescriptive methods based on limited fire tests. Also these fire tests were conducted using the standard fire curve [1] and the applicability of available design rules to realistic design fire curves has not been verified. This paper investigates the accuracy of existing fire design rules in the current cold-formed steel standards and the modifications proposed by previous researchers. Of these the recently developed design rules by Gunalan and Mahendran [2] based on Eurocode 3 Part 1.3 [3] and AS/NZS 4600 [4] for standard fire exposure [1] were investigated in detail to determine their applicability to predict the axial compression strengths and fire resistance ratings of LSF walls exposed to realistic design fire curves. This paper also presents the fire performance results of LSF walls exposed to a range of realistic fire curves obtained using a finite element analysis based parametric study. The results from the parametric study were used to develop a simplified design method based on the critical hot flange temperature to predict the fire resistance ratings of LSF walls exposed to realistic fire curves. Finally, the stud failure times (fire resistance rating) obtained from the fire design rules and the simplified design method were compared with parametric study results for LSF walls lined with single and double plasterboards, and externally insulated with rock fibres under realistic fire curves.

EVERSUN: A phase 2 trial of alternating sunitinib and everolimus as first-line therapy for advanced renal cell carcinoma

Background We hypothesised that alternating inhibitors of the vascular endothelial growth factor receptor (VEGFR) and mammalian target of rapamycin pathways would delay the development of resistance in advanced renal cell carcinoma (aRCC). Patients and methods A single-arm, two-stage, multicentre, phase 2 trial to determine the activity, feasibility, and safety of 12-week cycles of sunitinib 50 mg daily 4 weeks on / 2 weeks off, alternating with everolimus 10 mg daily for 5 weeks on / 1 week off, until disease progression or prohibitive toxicity in favourable or intermediate-risk aRCC. The primary end point was proportion alive and progression-free at 6 months (PFS6m). The secondary end points were feasibility, tumour response, overall survival (OS), and adverse events (AEs). The correlative objective was to assess biomarkers and correlate with clinical outcome. Results We recruited 55 eligible participants from September 2010 to August 2012. Demographics: mean age 61, 71% male, favourable risk 16%, intermediate risk 84%. Cycle 2 commenced within 14 weeks for 80% of participants; 64% received ≥22 weeks of alternating therapy; 78% received ≥22 weeks of any treatment. PFS6m was 29/55 (53%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 40% to 66%). Tumour response rate was 7/55 (13%; 95% CI 4% to 22%, all partial responses). After median follow-up of 20 months, 47 of 55 (86%) had progressed with a median progression-free survival of 8 months (95% CI 5–10), and 30 of 55 (55%) had died with a median OS of 17 months (95% CI 12–undefined). AEs were consistent with those expected for each single agent. No convincing prognostic biomarkers were identified. Conclusions The EVERSUN regimen was feasible and safe, but its activity did not meet pre-specified values to warrant further research. This supports the current approach of continuing anti-VEGF therapy until progression or prohibitive toxicity before changing treatment.

Crystal structure of poly[[di-mu2-aqua-aquasodium] 4-amino-3,5,6-trichloropyridine-2-carboxylate trihydrate], the sodium salt of the herbicide picloram

In the structure of the title complex [[Na(H2O)3]+ (C6H2Cl3N2O2)-^ . 3(H2O)]n, the Na salt of the herbicide picloram, the cation is a polymeric chain structure, based on doubly water-bridged NaO5 trigonal bipyramidal complex units which have in addition, a singly-bonded monodentate water molecule. Each of the bridges within the chain which lies along the a cell direction is centrosymmetric with Na...Na separations of 3.4807(16) and 3.5109(16)Ang. In the crystal, there are three water molecules of solvation and these, as well as the coordinated water molecules and the amino group of the 4-amino-3,5,6-trichloropicolinate anion are involved in extensive inter-species hydrogen-bonding interactions with carboxyl and water O-atoms as well as the pyridine N-atom. Among these association is a centrosymmetric cyclic tetra-water R4/4(8) ring , resulting in an overall three-dimensional structure.

Comparison of silicate-substituted calcium phosphate (Actifuse®) with rhBMP-2 (Infuse®) in posterolateral instrumented lumbar fusion

Study Design This was a randomised controlled trial in patients with degenerative disc disease (DDD) who underwent instrumented posterolateral lumbar fusion (PLF) surgery. Objective The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy of the bone grafting substitute, silicate-substituted calcium phosphate (SiCaP) compared with bone morphogenetic protein (rhBMP-2) and to evaluate clinical outcomes over a period of two years. Methods Patients undergoing PLF surgery for DDD at a single centre were recruited and randomised to one of two groups; SiCaP (n=9) or rhBMP-2 (n=10). One patient withdrew prior to randomisation and another from the rhBMP-2 group after randomisation. The radiological and clinical outcomes were examined and compared. Fusion was assessed at 12 months with computed tomography (CT) and plain radiographs. Clinical outcomes were evaluated by recording measures of pain, quality of life, disability and neurological status from six weeks to two years postoperatively. Results In the SiCaP and rhBMP-2 groups, fusion was observed in 9/9 and 8/9 patients respectively. Pain and disability scores were reduced and quality of life increased in both groups. Leg pain, disability and satisfaction scores were similar between the groups at each postoperative time point, however, back pain was less at six weeks and quality of life was higher at six months in the SiCaP group than the rhBMP-2 group. Conclusions SiCaP and rhBMP-2 were comparable in terms of achieving successful bone growth and fusion. Both groups similarly alleviated pain and improved quality of life, neurological, satisfaction and return to work outcomes following PLF surgery.

Evaluation of a mobile phone image-based dietary assessment method in adults with type 2 diabetes

Photographic and image-based dietary records have limited evidence evaluating their performance and use among adults with a chronic disease. This study evaluated the performance of a mobile phone image-based dietary record, the Nutricam Dietary Assessment Method (NuDAM), in adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Criterion validity was determined by comparing energy intake (EI) with total energy expenditure (TEE) measured by the doubly-labelled water technique. Relative validity was established by comparison to a weighed food record (WFR). Inter-rater reliability was assessed by comparing estimates of intake from three dietitians. Ten adults (6 males, age=61.2±6.9 years, BMI=31.0±4.5 kg/m2) participated. Compared to TEE, mean EI was under-reported using both methods, with a mean ratio of EI:TEE 0.76±0.20 for the NuDAM and 0.76±0.17 for the WFR. There was moderate to high correlations between the NuDAM and WFR for energy (r=0.57), carbohydrate (r=0.63, p<0.05), protein (r=0.78, p<0.01) and alcohol (rs=0.85, p<0.01), with a weaker relationship for fat (r=0.24). Agreement between dietitians for nutrient intake for the 3-day NuDAM (ICC = 0.77-0.99) was marginally lower when compared with the 3-day WFR (ICC=0.82-0.99). All subjects preferred using the NuDAM and were willing to use it again for longer recording periods.

Manifestations of type 2 diabetes in corneal endothelial cell density, corneal thickness and intraocular pressure

We sought to evaluate central corneal thickness (CCT), corneal endothelial cell density (ECD) and intraocular pressure (IOP) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) and to associate potential differences with diabetes duration and treatment modality in a prospective, randomized study. We measured ECD, CCT and IOP of 125 patients with type 2 DM (mean age 57.1¡11.5 years) and compared them with 90 age-matched controls. Measured parameters were analyzed for association with diabetes duration and glucose control modalities (insulin injection or oral medication) while controlling for age. In the diabetic group, the mean ECD (2511¡252 cells/mm2), mean CCT (539.7¡33.6 mm) and mean IOP (18.3¡2.5 mmHg) varied significantly from those the control group [ECD: 2713¡132 cells/mm2 (P,0.0001), CCT: 525.0¡45.3 mm (P50.003) and IOP: 16.7¡1.8 mmHg (P,0.0001)]. ECD was significantly reduced by about 32 cell/mm2 for diabetics with duration of .10 years when compared with those with duration of ,10 years (P,0.05). CCT was thicker and IOP was higher for diabetics with duration of .10 years than those with duration of ,10 years (P.0.05). None of the measured parameters was significantly associated with diabetes duration and treatment modality (P.0.05). In conclusion, subjects with type 2 DM exhibit significant changes in ECD, IOP and CCT, which, however, are not correlated with disease duration or if the patients receive on insulin injection or oral medications.