A new class of survival regression models with heavy-tailed errors: robustness and diagnostics

Birnbaum-Saunders models have largely been applied in material fatigue studies and reliability analyses to relate the total time until failure with some type of cumulative damage. In many problems related to the medical field, such as chronic cardiac diseases and different types of cancer, a cumulative damage caused by several risk factors might cause some degradation that leads to a fatigue process. In these cases, BS models can be suitable for describing the propagation lifetime. However, since the cumulative damage is assumed to be normally distributed in the BS distribution, the parameter estimates from this model can be sensitive to outlying observations. In order to attenuate this influence, we present in this paper BS models, in which a Student-t distribution is assumed to explain the cumulative damage. In particular, we show that the maximum likelihood estimates of the Student-t log-BS models attribute smaller weights to outlying observations, which produce robust parameter estimates. Also, some inferential results are presented. In addition, based on local influence and deviance component and martingale-type residuals, a diagnostics analysis is derived. Finally, a motivating example from the medical field is analyzed using log-BS regression models. Since the parameter estimates appear to be very sensitive to outlying and influential observations, the Student-t log-BS regression model should attenuate such influences. The model checking methodologies developed in this paper are used to compare the fitted models.

Beta-binomial/Poisson regression models for repeated bivariate counts

We analyze data obtained from a study designed to evaluate training effects on the performance of certain motor activities of Parkinson`s disease patients. Maximum likelihood methods were used to fit beta-binomial/Poisson regression models tailored to evaluate the effects of training on the numbers of attempted and successful specified manual movements in 1 min periods, controlling for disease stage and use of the preferred hand. We extend models previously considered by other authors in univariate settings to account for the repeated measures nature of the data. The results suggest that the expected number of attempts and successes increase with training, except for patients with advanced stages of the disease using the non-preferred hand. Copyright (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Influence diagnostics in beta regression

We consider the issue of assessing influence of observations in the class of beta regression models, which is useful for modelling random variables that assume values in the standard unit interval and are affected by independent variables. We propose a Cook-like distance and also measures of local influence under different perturbation schemes. Applications using real data are presented. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V.. All rights reserved.

Spectral flow and iteration of closed semi-Riemannian geodesics

We introduce the notion of spectral flow along a periodic semi-Riemannian geodesic, as a suitable substitute of the Morse index in the Riemannian case. We study the growth of the spectral flow along a closed geodesic under iteration, determining its asymptotic behavior.

On a formula for the spectral flow and its applications

We consider a continuous path of bounded symmetric Fredholm bilinear forms with arbitrary endpoints on a real Hilbert space, and we prove a formula that gives the spectral flow of the path in terms of the spectral flow of the restriction to a finite codimensional closed subspace. We also discuss the case of restrictions to a continuous path of finite codimensional closed subspaces. As an application of the formula, we introduce the notion of spectral flow for a periodic semi-Riemannian geodesic, and we compute its value in terms of the Maslov index. (C) 2010 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim

Improved maximum-likelihood estimation in a regression model with general parametrization

We analyse the finite-sample behaviour of two second-order bias-corrected alternatives to the maximum-likelihood estimator of the parameters in a multivariate normal regression model with general parametrization proposed by Patriota and Lemonte [A. G. Patriota and A. J. Lemonte, Bias correction in a multivariate regression model with genereal parameterization, Stat. Prob. Lett. 79 (2009), pp. 1655-1662]. The two finite-sample corrections we consider are the conventional second-order bias-corrected estimator and the bootstrap bias correction. We present the numerical results comparing the performance of these estimators. Our results reveal that analytical bias correction outperforms numerical bias corrections obtained from bootstrapping schemes.

Covariance matrix formula for Birnbaum-Saunders regression models

The Birnbaum-Saunders regression model is commonly used in reliability studies. We derive a simple matrix formula for second-order covariances of maximum-likelihood estimators in this class of models. The formula is quite suitable for computer implementation, since it involves only simple operations on matrices and vectors. Some simulation results show that the second-order covariances can be quite pronounced in small to moderate sample sizes. We also present empirical applications.

Influence diagnostics in Birnbaum-Saunders nonlinear regression models

We consider the issue of assessing influence of observations in the class of Birnbaum-Saunders nonlinear regression models, which is useful in lifetime data analysis. Our results generalize those in Galea et al. [8] which are confined to Birnbaum-Saunders linear regression models. Some influence methods, such as the local influence, total local influence of an individual and generalized leverage are discussed. Additionally, the normal curvatures for studying local influence are derived under some perturbation schemes. We also give an application to a real fatigue data set.

Asymptotic skewness in Birnbaum-Saunders nonlinear regression models

The family of distributions proposed by Birnbaum and Saunders (1969) can be used to model lifetime data and it is widely applicable to model failure times of fatiguing materials. We give a simple matrix formula of order n(-1/2), where n is the sample size, for the skewness of the distributions of the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters in Birnbaum-Saunders nonlinear regression models, recently introduced by Lemonte and Cordeiro (2009). The formula is quite suitable for computer implementation, since it involves only simple operations on matrices and vectors, in order to obtain closed-form skewness in a wide range of nonlinear regression models. Empirical and real applications are analyzed and discussed. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Some restriction tests in a new class of regression models for proportions

The main purpose of this work is to study the behaviour of Skovgaard`s [Skovgaard, I.M., 2001. Likelihood asymptotics. Scandinavian journal of Statistics 28, 3-32] adjusted likelihood ratio statistic in testing simple hypothesis in a new class of regression models proposed here. The proposed class of regression models considers Dirichlet distributed observations, and the parameters that index the Dirichlet distributions are related to covariates and unknown regression coefficients. This class is useful for modelling data consisting of multivariate positive observations summing to one and generalizes the beta regression model described in Vasconcellos and Cribari-Neto [Vasconcellos, K.L.P., Cribari-Neto, F., 2005. Improved maximum likelihood estimation in a new class of beta regression models. Brazilian journal of Probability and Statistics 19,13-31]. We show that, for our model, Skovgaard`s adjusted likelihood ratio statistics have a simple compact form that can be easily implemented in standard statistical software. The adjusted statistic is approximately chi-squared distributed with a high degree of accuracy. Some numerical simulations show that the modified test is more reliable in finite samples than the usual likelihood ratio procedure. An empirical application is also presented and discussed. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Birnbaum-Saunders nonlinear regression models

We introduce, for the first time, a new class of Birnbaum-Saunders nonlinear regression models potentially useful in lifetime data analysis. The class generalizes the regression model described by Rieck and Nedelman [Rieck, J.R., Nedelman, J.R., 1991. A log-linear model for the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution. Technometrics 33, 51-60]. We discuss maximum-likelihood estimation for the parameters of the model, and derive closed-form expressions for the second-order biases of these estimates. Our formulae are easily computed as ordinary linear regressions and are then used to define bias corrected maximum-likelihood estimates. Some simulation results show that the bias correction scheme yields nearly unbiased estimates without increasing the mean squared errors. Two empirical applications are analysed and discussed. Crown Copyright (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bias correction in a multivariate normal regression model with general parameterization

This paper derives the second-order biases Of maximum likelihood estimates from a multivariate normal model where the mean vector and the covariance matrix have parameters in common. We show that the second order bias can always be obtained by means of ordinary weighted least-squares regressions. We conduct simulation studies which indicate that the bias correction scheme yields nearly unbiased estimators. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Vision in click beetles (Coleoptera: Elateridae): pigments and spectral correspondence between visual sensitivity and species bioluminescence emission

Among lampyrids, intraspecific sexual communication is facilitated by spectral correspondence between visual sensitivity and bioluminescence emission from the single lantern in the tail. Could a similar strategy be utilized by the elaterids (click beetles), which have one ventral abdominal and two dorsal prothoracic lanterns? Spectral sensitivity [S(lambda)] and bioluminescence were investigated in four Brazilian click beetle species Fulgeochlizus bruchii, Pyrearinus termitilluminans, Pyrophorus punctatissimus and P. divergens, representing three genera. In addition, in situ microspectrophotometric absorption spectra were obtained for visual and screening pigments in P. punctatissimus and P. divergens species. In all species, the electroretinographic S(lambda) functions showed broad peaks in the green with a shoulder in the near-ultraviolet, suggesting the presence of short- and long-wavelength receptors in the compound eyes. The long-wavelength receptor in Pyrophorus species is mediated by a P540 rhodopsin in conjunction with a species-specific screening pigment. A correspondence was found between green to yellow bioluminescence emissions and its broad S(lambda) maximum in each of the four species. It is hypothesized that in elaterids, bioluminescence of the abdominal lantern is an optical signal for intraspecifc sexual communication, while the signals from the prothoracic lanterns serve to warn predators and may also provide illumination in flight.

Synthesis, spectral studies and X-ray crystal structure of N,N `-(+/-)-trans-1,2-cyclohexylenebis(3-ethoxysalicylideneamine) H-2(t-3-EtOsalchxn)

The synthesis, spectra and X-ray crystal structure of N,N`-(+/-)-trans-1,2-cyclohexylenebis(3-ethoxysalicylideneamine) H-2(t-3-EtOsalchxn), a salen-type ligand, are reported. The Schiff base was characterized by elemental analysis, m.p., IR, electronic spectra, H-1 and C-13 NMR spectra. The spectra are discussed and compared with those of N,N`-(+/-)-trans-1,2-cyclohexylenebis(salicylideneamine), H-2(t-salchxn). The electronic and IR spectra were also resolved by deconvolution. The influence of the ethoxy group on the IR, electronic spectrum, H-1 and C-13 NMR spectra is discussed. Strong intramolecular forces are present as supported by the IR and H-1 NMR spectra and the X-ray crystal structure. An intermolecular hydrogen bond is observed and appears twice in a pair of molecules in the unit cell. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An Analysis of the Telecommunications Business in China by Linear Regression

In this paper, we study the influence of the National Telecom Business Volume by the data in 2008 that have been published in China Statistical Yearbook of Statistics. We illustrate the procedure of modeling “National Telecom Business Volume” on the following eight variables, GDP, Consumption Levels, Retail Sales of Social Consumer Goods Total Renovation Investment, the Local Telephone Exchange Capacity, Mobile Telephone Exchange Capacity, Mobile Phone End Users, and the Local Telephone End Users. The testing of heteroscedasticity and multicollinearity for model evaluation is included. We also consider AIC and BIC criterion to select independent variables, and conclude the result of the factors which are the optimal regression model for the amount of telecommunications business and the relation between independent variables and dependent variable. Based on the final results, we propose several recommendations about how to improve telecommunication services and promote the economic development.