Equity research – CTT Correios de Portugal, S.A.

Dissertação de Mestrado, Gestão Empresarial, Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Algarve, 2016

Plano de negócios de uma plataforma de e-recruitment

Mestrado em Ciências Empresariais

Cost-Effectiveness of Rotavirus Vaccination for Under-Five Children in Iran

Background: Rotavirus diarrhea is one of the most important causes of death among under-five children. Anti-rotavirus vaccination of these children may have a reducing effect on the disease. Objectives: this study is intended to contribute to health policy-makers of the country about the optimal decision and policy development in this area, by performing cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analysis on anti-rotavirus vaccination for under-5 children. Patients and Methods: A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using a decision tree model to analyze rotavirus vaccination, which was compared with no vaccination with Iran’s ministry of health perspective in a 5-year time horizon. Epidemiological data were collected from published and unpublished sources. Four different assumptions were considered to the extent of the disease episode. To analyze costs, the costs of implementing the vaccination program were calculated with 98% coverage and the cost of USD 7 per dose. Medical and social costs of the disease were evaluated by sampling patients with rotavirus diarrhea, and sensitivity analysis was also performed for different episode rates and vaccine price per dose. Results: For the most optimistic assumption for the episode of illness (10.2 per year), the cost per DALY averted is 12,760 and 7,404 for RotaTeq and Rotarix vaccines, respectively, while assuming the episode of illness is 300%, they will be equal to 2,395 and 354, respectively, which will be highly cost-effective. Number of life-years gained is equal to 3,533 years. Conclusions: Assuming that the illness episodes are 100% and 300% for Rotarix and 300% for Rota Teq, the ratio of cost per DALY averted is highly cost-effective, based on the threshold of the world health organization (< 1 GDP per capita = 4526 USD). The implementation of a national rotavirus vaccination program is suggested.

Estudo paramétrico da recuperação de petróleo pesado por aquecimento eletromagnético resistivo

Electrical resistive heating (ERH) is a thermal method used to improve oil recovery. It can increase oil rate and oil recovery due to temperature increase caused by electrical current passage through oil zone. ERH has some advantage compared with well-known thermal methods such as continuous steam flood, presenting low-water production. This method can be applied to reservoirs with different characteristics and initial reservoir conditions. Commercial software was used to test several cases using a semi-synthetic homogeneous reservoir with some characteristics as found in northeast Brazilian basins. It was realized a sensitivity analysis of some reservoir parameters, such as: oil zone, aquifer presence, gas cap presence and oil saturation on oil recovery and energy consumption. Then it was tested several cases studying the electrical variables considered more important in the process, such as: voltage, electrical configurations and electrodes positions. Energy optimization by electrodes voltage levels changes and electrical settings modify the intensity and the electrical current distribution in oil zone and, consequently, their influences in reservoir temperature reached at some regions. Results show which reservoir parameters were significant in order to improve oil recovery and energy requirement in for each reservoir. Most significant parameters on oil recovery and electrical energy delivered were oil thickness, presence of aquifer, presence of gas cap, voltage, electrical configuration and electrodes positions. Factors such as: connate water, water salinity and relative permeability to water at irreducible oil saturation had low influence on oil recovery but had some influence in energy requirements. It was possible to optimize energy consumption and oil recovery by electrical variables. Energy requirements can decrease by changing electrodes voltages during the process. This application can be extended to heavy oil reservoirs of high depth, such as offshore fields, where nowadays it is not applicable any conventional thermal process such as steam flooding

Análise comparativa entre simuladores de linha de fluxo e diferenças finitas para um reservatório de petróleo submetido a injeção de água

Water injection is the most widely used method for supplementary recovery in many oil fields due to various reasons, like the fact that water is an effective displacing agent of low viscosity oils, the water injection projects are relatively simple to establish and the water availability at a relatively low cost. For design of water injection projects is necessary to do reservoir studies in order to define the various parameters needed to increase the effectiveness of the method. For this kind of study can be used several mathematical models classified into two general categories: analytical or numerical. The present work aims to do a comparative analysis between the results presented by flow lines simulator and conventional finite differences simulator; both types of simulators are based on numerical methods designed to model light oil reservoirs subjected to water injection. Therefore, it was defined two reservoir models: the first one was a heterogeneous model whose petrophysical properties vary along the reservoir and the other one was created using average petrophysical properties obtained from the first model. Comparisons were done considering that the results of these two models were always in the same operational conditions. Then some rock and fluid parameters have been changed in both models and again the results were compared. From the factorial design, that was done to study the sensitivity analysis of reservoir parameters, a few cases were chosen to study the role of water injection rate and the vertical position of wells perforations in production forecast. It was observed that the results from the two simulators are quite similar in most of the cases; differences were found only in those cases where there was an increase in gas solubility ratio of the model. Thus, it was concluded that in flow simulation of reservoirs analogous of those now studied, mainly when the gas solubility ratio is low, the conventional finite differences simulator may be replaced by flow lines simulator the production forecast is compatible but the computational processing time is lower.

Weaknesses in the reporting of cross-sectional studies according to the STROBE statement: the case of metabolic syndrome in adults from Peru

Introduction: The inadequate reporting of cross-sectional studies, as in the case of the prevalence of metabolic syndrome, could cause problems in the synthesis of new evidence and lead to errors in the formulation of public policies. Objective: To evaluate the reporting quality of the articles regarding metabolic syndrome prevalence in Peruvian adults using the STROBE recommendations. Methods: We conducted a thorough literature search with the terms "Metabolic Syndrome", "Sindrome Metabolico" and "Peru" in MEDLINE/PubMed, LILACS, SciELO, LIPECS and BVS-Peru until December 2014. We selected those who were populationbased observational studies with randomized sampling that reported prevalence of metabolic syndrome in adults aged 18 or more of both sexes. Information was analysed through the STROBE score per item and recommendation. Results: Seventeen articles were included in this study. All articles met the recommendations related to the report of the study’s rationale, design, and provision of summary measures. The recommendations with the lowest scores were those related to the sensitivity analysis (8%, n= 1/17), participant flowchart (18%, n= 3/17), missing data analysis (24%, n= 4/17), and number of participants in each study phase (24%, n= 4/17). Conclusion: Cross-sectional studies regarding the prevalence of metabolic syndrome in peruvian adults have an inadequate reporting on the methods and results sections. We identified a clear need to improve the quality of such studies.

Weaknesses in the reporting of cross-sectional studies according to the STROBE statement: the case of metabolic syndrome in adults from Peru

Introduction: The inadequate reporting of cross-sectional studies, as in the case of the prevalence of metabolic syndrome, could cause problems in the synthesis of new evidence and lead to errors in the formulation of public policies. Objective: To evaluate the reporting quality of the articles regarding metabolic syndrome prevalence in Peruvian adults using the STROBE recommendations. Methods: We conducted a thorough literature search with the terms "Metabolic Syndrome", "Sindrome Metabolico" and "Peru" in MEDLINE/PubMed, LILACS, SciELO, LIPECS and BVS-Peru until December 2014. We selected those who were population-based observational studies with randomized sampling that reported prevalence of metabolic syndrome in adults aged 18 or more of both sexes. Information was analysed through the STROBE score per item and recommendation. Results: Seventeen articles were included in this study. All articles met the recommendations related to the report of the study’s rationale, design, and provision of summary measures. The recommendations with the lowest scores were those related to the sensitivity analysis (8%, n= 1/17), participant flowchart (18%, n= 3/17), missing data analysis (24%, n= 4/17), and number of participants in each study phase (24%, n= 4/17). Conclusion: Cross-sectional studies regarding the prevalence of metabolic syndrome in peruvian adults have an inadequate reporting on the methods and results sections. We identified a clear need to improve the quality of such studies.

SVR-GARCH com misturas de kernels gaussianos

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Departamento de Administração, Programa de Pós-graduação em Administração, 2016.

Estudo do processo de combustão in-situ em reservatórios maduros de óleos médios e leves (high pressure air injection)

Nearly 3 x 1011 m3 of medium and light oils will remain in reservoirs worldwide after conventional recovery methods have been exhausted and much of this volume would be recovered by Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) methods. The in-situ combustion (ISC) is an EOR method in which an oxygen-containing gas is injected into a reservoir where it reacts with the crude oil to create a high-temperature combustion front that is propagated through the reservoir. The High Pressure Air Injection (HPAI) method is a particular denomination of the air injection process applied in light oil reservoirs, for which the combustion reactions are dominant between 150 and 300°C and the generation of flue gas is the main factor to the oil displacement. A simulation model of a homogeneous reservoir was built to study, which was initially undergone to primary production, for 3 years, next by a waterflooding process for 21 more years. At this point, with the mature condition established into the reservoir, three variations of this model were selected, according to the recovery factors (RF) reached, for study the in-situ combustion (HPAI) technique. Next to this, a sensitivity analysis on the RF of characteristic operational parameters of the method was carried out: air injection rate per well, oxygen concentration into the injected gas, patterns of air injection and wells perforations configuration. This analysis, for 10 more years of production time, was performed with assistance of the central composite design. The reservoir behavior and the impacts of chemical reactions parameters and of reservoir particularities on the RF were also evaluated. An economic analysis and a study to maximize the RF of the process were also carried out. The simulation runs were performed in the simulator of thermal processes in reservoirs STARS (Steam, Thermal, and Advanced Processes Reservoir Simulator) from CMG (Computer Modelling Group). The results showed the incremental RF were small and the net present value (NPV) is affected by high initial investments to compress the air. It was noticed that the adoption of high oxygen concentration into the injected gas and of the five spot pattern tends to improve the RF, and the wells perforations configuration has more influence with the increase of the oil thickness. Simulated cases relating to the reservoir particularities showed that smaller residual oil saturations to gas lead to greater RF and the presence of heterogeneities results in important variations on the RF and on the production curves

Principaux obstacles à la décision d’investissement des firmes en Afrique

Quelles sont les contraintes auxquelles font face les firmes africaines ? Cette étude a pour but de cerner les principaux défis du climat des affaires africain en utilisant les données de la World Bank Enterprise Survey. Dans cette enquête, deux questions majeures ont été posées au gestionnaire de firmes : i) l’ampleur des contraintes énumérées pour leur activité et ii) la décision d’investissement durant l’année qui a précédé l’enquête. Nos résultats montrent que, pour les firmes de notre échantillon, la décision d’investissement est retardée par un ensemble d’obstacles parmi lesquelles : la corruption, l’accès difficile au marché financier, la concurrence déloyale du secteur informel et l’instabilité politique. Nous procédons ensuite à une analyse de sensibilité et de robustesse en intégrant parmi les variables de contrôle ; la taille des firmes, le secteur d’activité et leur localisation. Nos résultats montrent que les firmes de taille moyenne sont les plus vulnérables, elles sont différemment affectées selon qu’elles soient dans le secteur des manufactures ou celui des services et les compagnies situées en Afrique centrale sont très peu affectées par ces contraintes.

Planar solid oxide fuel cell modeling and optimization targeting the stack's temperature gradient minimization

Minimization of undesirable temperature gradients in all dimensions of a planar solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) is central to the thermal management and commercialization of this electrochemical reactor. This article explores the effective operating variables on the temperature gradient in a multilayer SOFC stack and presents a trade-off optimization. Three promising approaches are numerically tested via a model-based sensitivity analysis. The numerically efficient thermo-chemical model that had already been developed by the authors for the cell scale investigations (Tang et al. Chem. Eng. J. 2016, 290, 252-262) is integrated and extended in this work to allow further thermal studies at commercial scales. Initially, the most common approach for the minimization of stack's thermal inhomogeneity, i.e., usage of the excess air, is critically assessed. Subsequently, the adjustment of inlet gas temperatures is introduced as a complementary methodology to reduce the efficiency loss due to application of excess air. As another practical approach, regulation of the oxygen fraction in the cathode coolant stream is examined from both technical and economic viewpoints. Finally, a multiobjective optimization calculation is conducted to find an operating condition in which stack's efficiency and temperature gradient are maximum and minimum, respectively.

Principaux obstacles à la décision d’investissement des firmes en Afrique

Quelles sont les contraintes auxquelles font face les firmes africaines ? Cette étude a pour but de cerner les principaux défis du climat des affaires africain en utilisant les données de la World Bank Enterprise Survey. Dans cette enquête, deux questions majeures ont été posées au gestionnaire de firmes : i) l’ampleur des contraintes énumérées pour leur activité et ii) la décision d’investissement durant l’année qui a précédé l’enquête. Nos résultats montrent que, pour les firmes de notre échantillon, la décision d’investissement est retardée par un ensemble d’obstacles parmi lesquelles : la corruption, l’accès difficile au marché financier, la concurrence déloyale du secteur informel et l’instabilité politique. Nous procédons ensuite à une analyse de sensibilité et de robustesse en intégrant parmi les variables de contrôle ; la taille des firmes, le secteur d’activité et leur localisation. Nos résultats montrent que les firmes de taille moyenne sont les plus vulnérables, elles sont différemment affectées selon qu’elles soient dans le secteur des manufactures ou celui des services et les compagnies situées en Afrique centrale sont très peu affectées par ces contraintes.

Economic evaluations of clinical pharmacy services in Ireland, 2007-2015

Introduction The concept of this thesis was driven by stagnation within the Irish healthcare system. Multiple reports from pharmacy organisations had outlined possible future directions for the profession but progress was minimal, especially in comparison with other countries. The author’s directive was to evaluate the economic impact of a series of clinical pharmacy services (CPS) in hospital and community settings. Methods A systematic review of economic evaluations of clinical pharmacy services in hospital patients was undertaken to gain insight into recent research in the field. Eligible studies were evaluated using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS), to establish the quality, consistency and transparency of relevant research. A retrospective analysis of an internal hospital pharmacy interventions database was conducted. A method first described by Nesbit et al. was implemented to estimate the level of cost avoidance achieved. A cost-effectiveness analysis based on data from a randomised controlled trial of a pharmacist-supervised patient self-testing (PST) of warfarin therapy is presented. Outcome measure was the incremental cost associated with six months of intervention management. A similar cost-effectiveness analysis based on previously published RCT data was used to evaluate a novel structured pharmacist review of medication in older hospitalised patients. Cost-effectiveness analysis was presented in the form of an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). An ICER is an additional cost per unit effect, in the case of this study, the cost of preventing an additional non-trivial ADR in hospital. A method described by Preaud et al. was adapted to estimate the clinical and economic benefit gained from vaccination of patients by a community pharmacist in Ireland in 2013/14. Sample demographic data was obtained from a national chain of community pharmacies and applied to overall national vaccination data. Results Systematic review identified twenty studies which were eligible for inclusion. Overall, pharmacist interventions had a positive impact on hospital budgets. Only three studies (15%) were deemed to be “good-quality” studies. No ‘novel’ clinical pharmacist intervention was identified during the course of this review. Analysis of internal hospital database identified 4,257 interventions documented on 2,147 individual patients over a 12 month period. Substantial cost avoidance of €710,000 was generated over a 1 year period from the perspective of the health care provider. Mean cost avoidance of €166 per intervention was generated. The cost of providing these interventions was €82,000. Substantial net cost-benefits of €626,279 and a cost-benefit ratio of 8.64 : 1 were generated based on this evaluation of pharmacist interventions. Results from an evaluation of a novel pharmacist-led form of warfarin management indicated indicated that on a per patient basis, PST was slightly more expensive than established anticoagulant management. On a per patient basis over a six month period, PST resulted in an incremental cost of €59.08 in comparison with routine care. Overall cost of managing a patient through pharmacist-supervised PST for a six month period is €226.45. However, for this increase in cost a clinically significant improvement in care was provided. Patients achieved a significantly higher time in therapeutic range during the PST arm in comparison with routine care, (72 ± 19.7% vs 59 ± 13.5%). Difference in overall cost was minimal and PST was the dominant strategy in some scenarios examined during sensitivity analysis. Structured pharmacist review of medication was determined to be dominant in comparison to usual pharmaceutical care. Even if the healthcare payer was unwilling to pay any money for the prevention of an ADR, the intervention strategy is still likely to be cost-effective (probability of being determined cost-effective = 0.707). Implementation of pharmacist-led influenza vaccination has resulted in substantial clinical and economic benefits to the healthcare system. The majority of patients (64.9%) who availed of this service had identifiable influenza-related risk factors. Of patients with influenza-related risk factors, age ≥65 year was the most commonly cited risk factor. Pharmacist vaccination services averted a total of 848 influenza cases across all age groups during the 2013/2014 influenza season. Due to receipt of vaccination in a pharmacy setting, 444 influenza-related GP visits were prevented. In terms of more serious influenza-associated events, 11 hospitalisations and five influenza-related deaths were averted. Costs averted were approximately €305,000. These were principally wider societal-related costs associated with lost productivity. Conclusion Overall, clinical pharmacy services are adding value to the Irish healthcare system in both hospital and community settings, but provision of additional funding for new services would enable them to offer a great deal more.

The role of area-level deprivation and gender in participation in population-based faecal immunochemical test (FIT) colorectal cancer screening

This study aimed to investigate the effects of sex and deprivation on participation in a population-based faecal immunochemical test (FIT) colorectal cancer screening programme. The study population included 9785 individuals invited to participate in two rounds of a population-based biennial FIT-based screening programme, in a relatively deprived area of Dublin, Ireland. Explanatory variables included in the analysis were sex, deprivation category of area of residence and age (at end of screening). The primary outcome variable modelled was participation status in both rounds combined (with “participation” defined as having taken part in either or both rounds of screening). Poisson regression with a log link and robust error variance was used to estimate relative risks (RR) for participation. As a sensitivity analysis, data were stratified by screening round. In both the univariable and multivariable models deprivation was strongly associated with participation. Increasing affluence was associated with higher participation; participation was 26% higher in people resident in the most affluent compared to the most deprived areas (multivariable RR = 1.26: 95% CI 1.21–1.30). Participation was significantly lower in males (multivariable RR = 0.96: 95%CI 0.95–0.97) and generally increased with increasing age (trend per age group, multivariable RR = 1.02: 95%CI, 1.01–1.02). No significant interactions between the explanatory variables were found. The effects of deprivation and sex were similar by screening round. Deprivation and male gender are independently associated with lower uptake of population-based FIT colorectal cancer screening, even in a relatively deprived setting. Development of evidence-based interventions to increase uptake in these disadvantaged groups is urgently required.

Design and application of experimental methods for steel sheet shearing

Shearing is the process where sheet metal is mechanically cut between two tools. Various shearing technologies are commonly used in the sheet metal industry, for example, in cut to length lines, slitting lines, end cropping etc. Shearing has speed and cost advantages over competing cutting methods like laser and plasma cutting, but involves large forces on the equipment and large strains in the sheet material. The constant development of sheet metals toward higher strength and formability leads to increased forces on the shearing equipment and tools. Shearing of new sheet materials imply new suitable shearing parameters. Investigations of the shearing parameters through live tests in the production are expensive and separate experiments are time consuming and requires specialized equipment. Studies involving a large number of parameters and coupled effects are therefore preferably performed by finite element based simulations. Accurate experimental data is still a prerequisite to validate such simulations. There is, however, a shortage of accurate experimental data to validate such simulations. In industrial shearing processes, measured forces are always larger than the actual forces acting on the sheet, due to friction losses. Shearing also generates a force that attempts to separate the two tools with changed shearing conditions through increased clearance between the tools as result. Tool clearance is also the most common shearing parameter to adjust, depending on material grade and sheet thickness, to moderate the required force and to control the final sheared edge geometry. In this work, an experimental procedure that provides a stable tool clearance together with accurate measurements of tool forces and tool displacements, was designed, built and evaluated. Important shearing parameters and demands on the experimental set-up were identified in a sensitivity analysis performed with finite element simulations under the assumption of plane strain. With respect to large tool clearance stability and accurate force measurements, a symmetric experiment with two simultaneous shears and internal balancing of forces attempting to separate the tools was constructed. Steel sheets of different strength levels were sheared using the above mentioned experimental set-up, with various tool clearances, sheet clamping and rake angles. Results showed that tool penetration before fracture decreased with increased material strength. When one side of the sheet was left unclamped and free to move, the required shearing force decreased but instead the force attempting to separate the two tools increased. Further, the maximum shearing force decreased and the rollover increased with increased tool clearance. Digital image correlation was applied to measure strains on the sheet surface. The obtained strain fields, together with a material model, were used to compute the stress state in the sheet. A comparison, up to crack initiation, of these experimental results with corresponding results from finite element simulations in three dimensions and at a plane strain approximation showed that effective strains on the surface are representative also for the bulk material. A simple model was successfully applied to calculate the tool forces in shearing with angled tools from forces measured with parallel tools. These results suggest that, with respect to tool forces, a plane strain approximation is valid also at angled tools, at least for small rake angles. In general terms, this study provide a stable symmetric experimental set-up with internal balancing of lateral forces, for accurate measurements of tool forces, tool displacements, and sheet deformations, to study the effects of important shearing parameters. The results give further insight to the strain and stress conditions at crack initiation during shearing, and can also be used to validate models of the shearing process.