Tests of sunspot number sequences: 3. Effects of regression procedures on the calibration of historic sunspot data

We use sunspot group observations from the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) to investigate the effects of intercalibrating data from observers with different visual acuities. The tests are made by counting the number of groups RB above a variable cut-off threshold of observed total whole-spot area (uncorrected for foreshortening) to simulate what a lower acuity observer would have seen. The synthesised annual means of RB are then re-scaled to the full observed RGO group number RA using a variety of regression techniques. It is found that a very high correlation between RA and RB (rAB > 0.98) does not prevent large errors in the intercalibration (for example sunspot maximum values can be over 30 % too large even for such levels of rAB). In generating the backbone sunspot number (RBB), Svalgaard and Schatten (2015, this issue) force regression fits to pass through the scatter plot origin which generates unreliable fits (the residuals do not form a normal distribution) and causes sunspot cycle amplitudes to be exaggerated in the intercalibrated data. It is demonstrated that the use of Quantile-Quantile (“Q  Q”) plots to test for a normal distribution is a useful indicator of erroneous and misleading regression fits. Ordinary least squares linear fits, not forced to pass through the origin, are sometimes reliable (although the optimum method used is shown to be different when matching peak and average sunspot group numbers). However, other fits are only reliable if non-linear regression is used. From these results it is entirely possible that the inflation of solar cycle amplitudes in the backbone group sunspot number as one goes back in time, relative to related solar-terrestrial parameters, is entirely caused by the use of inappropriate and non-robust regression techniques to calibrate the sunspot data.

A constrained recursive least squares algorithm for adaptive combination of multiple models

In this paper, we develop a novel constrained recursive least squares algorithm for adaptively combining a set of given multiple models. With data available in an online fashion, the linear combination coefficients of submodels are adapted via the proposed algorithm.We propose to minimize the mean square error with a forgetting factor, and apply the sum to one constraint to the combination parameters. Moreover an l1-norm constraint to the combination parameters is also applied with the aim to achieve sparsity of multiple models so that only a subset of models may be selected into the final model. Then a weighted l2-norm is applied as an approximation to the l1-norm term. As such at each time step, a closed solution of the model combination parameters is available. The contribution of this paper is to derive the proposed constrained recursive least squares algorithm that is computational efficient by exploiting matrix theory. The effectiveness of the approach has been demonstrated using both simulated and real time series examples.

Effects of dietary urea levels on milk protein fractions of Holstein cows

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of substituting soybean meal for urea on milk protein fractions (casein, whey protein and non-protein nitrogen) of dairy cows in three dietary levels. Nine mid-lactation Holstein cows were used in a 3 x 3 Latin square arrangement, composed of 3 treatments, 3 periods of 21 days each, and 3 squares. The treatments consisted of three different diets fed to lactating cows, which were randomly assigned to three groups of three animals: (A) no urea inclusion, providing 100% of crude protein (CP), rumen undegradable protein (RUP) and rumen degradable protein (RDP) requirements, using soybean meal and sugarcane as roughage; (B) urea inclusion at 7.5 g/kg DM in partial substitution of soybean meal CP equivalent; (C) urea inclusion at 15 g/kg DM in partial substitution of soybean meal CP equivalent. Rations were isoenergetic and isonitrogenous-1 60 g/kg DM of crude protein and 6.40 MJ/kg DM of net energy for lactation. When the data were analyzed by simple polynomial regression, no differences were observed among treatments in relation to milk CP content, true protein, casein, whey protein, non-casein and non-protein nitrogen, or urea. The milk true protein:crude protein and casein:true protein ratios were not influenced by substituting soybean meal for urea in the diet. Based on the results it can be concluded that the addition of urea up to 15 g/kg of diet dry matter in substitution of soybean meal did not alter milk protein concentration casein, whey protein and its non-protein fractions, when fed to lactating dairy cows. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Robust inference in an heteroscedastic measurement error model

In this paper we deal with robust inference in heteroscedastic measurement error models Rather than the normal distribution we postulate a Student t distribution for the observed variables Maximum likelihood estimates are computed numerically Consistent estimation of the asymptotic covariance matrices of the maximum likelihood and generalized least squares estimators is also discussed Three test statistics are proposed for testing hypotheses of interest with the asymptotic chi-square distribution which guarantees correct asymptotic significance levels Results of simulations and an application to a real data set are also reported (C) 2009 The Korean Statistical Society Published by Elsevier B V All rights reserved

Comparing diagnostic tests with missing data

When missing data occur in studies designed to compare the accuracy of diagnostic tests, a common, though naive, practice is to base the comparison of sensitivity, specificity, as well as of positive and negative predictive values on some subset of the data that fits into methods implemented in standard statistical packages. Such methods are usually valid only under the strong missing completely at random (MCAR) assumption and may generate biased and less precise estimates. We review some models that use the dependence structure of the completely observed cases to incorporate the information of the partially categorized observations into the analysis and show how they may be fitted via a two-stage hybrid process involving maximum likelihood in the first stage and weighted least squares in the second. We indicate how computational subroutines written in R may be used to fit the proposed models and illustrate the different analysis strategies with observational data collected to compare the accuracy of three distinct non-invasive diagnostic methods for endometriosis. The results indicate that even when the MCAR assumption is plausible, the naive partial analyses should be avoided.

Bias correction in a multivariate normal regression model with general parameterization

This paper derives the second-order biases Of maximum likelihood estimates from a multivariate normal model where the mean vector and the covariance matrix have parameters in common. We show that the second order bias can always be obtained by means of ordinary weighted least-squares regressions. We conduct simulation studies which indicate that the bias correction scheme yields nearly unbiased estimators. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nasal immunization of mice with Lactobacillus casei expressing the Pneumococcal Surface Protein A: induction of antibodies, complement deposition and partial protection against Streptococcus pneumoniae challenge

Strategies for the development of new vaccines against Streptococcus pneumoniae infections try to overcome problems such as serotype coverage and high costs, present in currently available vaccines. Formulations based on protein candidates that can induce protection in animal models have been pointed as good alternatives. Among them, the Pneumococcal Surface Protein A (PspA) plays an important role during systemic infection at least in part through the inhibition of complement deposition on the pneumococcal surface, a mechanism of evasion from the immune system. Antigen delivery systems based on live recombinant lactic acid bacteria (LAB) represents a promising strategy for mucosal vaccination, since they are generally regarded as safe bacteria able to elicit both systemic and mucosal immune responses. In this work, the N-terminal region of clade I PspA was constitutively expressed in Lactobacillus casei and the recombinant bacteria was tested as a mucosal vaccine in mice. Nasal immunization with L. casei-PspA 1 induced anti-PspA antibodies that were able to bind to pneumococcal strains carrying both clade 1 and clade 2 PspAs and to induce complement deposition on the surface of the bacteria. In addition, an increase in survival of immunized mice after a systemic challenge with a virulent pneumococcal strain was observed. (C) 2008 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Independent Domain of Symmetric Encryption using Least SignificantBit : Computer Vision, Steganography and Cryptography Techniques

The rapid development of data transfer through internet made it easier to send the data accurate and faster to the destination. There are many transmission media to transfer the data to destination like e-mails; at the same time it is may be easier to modify and misuse the valuable information through hacking. So, in order to transfer the data securely to the destination without any modifications, there are many approaches like cryptography and steganography. This paper deals with the image steganography as well as with the different security issues, general overview of cryptography, steganography and digital watermarking approaches.  The problem of copyright violation of multimedia data has increased due to the enormous growth of computer networks that provides fast and error free transmission of any unauthorized duplicate and possibly manipulated copy of multimedia information. In order to be effective for copyright protection, digital watermark must be robust which are difficult to remove from the object in which they are embedded despite a variety of possible attacks. The message to be send safe and secure, we use watermarking. We use invisible watermarking to embed the message using LSB (Least Significant Bit) steganographic technique. The standard LSB technique embed the message in every pixel, but my contribution for this proposed watermarking, works with the hint for embedding the message only on the image edges alone. If the hacker knows that the system uses LSB technique also, it cannot decrypt correct message. To make my system robust and secure, we added cryptography algorithm as Vigenere square. Whereas the message is transmitted in cipher text and its added advantage to the proposed system. The standard Vigenere square algorithm works with either lower case or upper case. The proposed cryptography algorithm is Vigenere square with extension of numbers also. We can keep the crypto key with combination of characters and numbers. So by using these modifications and updating in this existing algorithm and combination of cryptography and steganography method we develop a secure and strong watermarking method. Performance of this watermarking scheme has been analyzed by evaluating the robustness of the algorithm with PSNR (Peak Signal to Noise Ratio) and MSE (Mean Square Error) against the quality of the image for large amount of data. While coming to see results of the proposed encryption, higher value of 89dB of PSNR with small value of MSE is 0.0017. Then it seems the proposed watermarking system is secure and robust for hiding secure information in any digital system, because this system collect the properties of both steganography and cryptography sciences.

Avaliação do papel da ultra-sonografia obstétrica de rotina, no rastreamento pré-natal das anormalidades cardíacas

A ultra-sonografia obstétrica é um método diagnóstico tradicionalmente utilizado na rotina do atendimento pré-natal, tendo sido estudados de forma ampla suas vantagens e limitações. O advento do diagnóstico intra-uterino de cardiopatias congênitas e de arritmias através da ecocardiografia fetal modificou completamente o prognóstico perinatal dessas afecções, por permitir planejar o adequado manejo cardiológico no período neonatal imediato e, em algumas situações, o tratamento e sua resolução in utero. Sendo muito elevada a prevalência de cardiopatias congênitas durante a vida fetal, sua detecção torna-se fundamental. Considerando a inviabilidade operacional de realizar rotineiramente ecocardiografia fetal em todas as gestações, levando-se em conta as condições locais do sistema de saúde, o encaminhamento para exame por especialista passa a ser otimizado com a possibilidade da suspeita de alterações estruturais ou funcionais do coração e do sistema circulatório durante o exame ultra-sonográfico obstétrico de rotina. Não são conhecidos, em nosso meio, dados que avaliem de forma sistemática a acurácia da ultra-sonografia obstétrica no que se refere à suspeita pré-natal de cardiopatias. A partir deste questionamento, este trabalho foi delineado com o objetivo de avaliar o papel da ultra-sonografia obstétrica de rotina na suspeita pré-natal de cardiopatias congênitas ou arritmias graves e os fatores envolvidos na sua efetividade. A amostra foi constituída de 77 neonatos ou lactentes internados no Instituto de Cardiologia do Rio Grande do Sul / Fundação Universitária de Cardiologia (IC/FUC) no período de maio a outubro de 2000, com diagnóstico pós-natal confirmado de cardiopatia estrutural ou arritmia grave, que tenham sido submetidos, durante a vida fetal, a pelo menos uma ultra-sonografia obstétrica após a 18a semana de gestação. Para a coleta de dados, foi utilizado um questionário padronizado, respondido pelos pais ou responsáveis, após consentimento informado. As variáveis categóricas foram comparadas pelo teste do qui-quadrado ou pelo teste de Fisher, com um alfa crítico de 0,05. Um modelo de regressão logística foi utilizado para determinar variáveis independentes eventualmente envolvidas na suspeita pré-natal de cardiopatia. Em 19 pacientes (24,7%), a ultra-sonografia obstétrica foi capaz de levantar suspeita de anormalidades estruturais ou de arritmias. Ao serem consideradas apenas as cardiopatias congênitas, esta prevalência foi de 19,2% (14/73). Em 73,7% destes, as cardiopatias suspeitadas eram acessíveis ao corte de 4-câmaras isolado. Observou-se que 26,3% das crianças com suspeita pré-natal de cardiopatia apresentaram arritmias durante o estudo ecográfico, enquanto apenas 3,4% dos pacientes sem suspeita pré-natal apresentaram alterações do ritmo (P=0,009). Constituiram-se em fatores comparativos significantes entre o grupo com suspeita pré-natal e o sem suspeita a paridade (P=0,029), o parto cesáreo (P=0,006), a internação em unidade de tratamento intensivo (P=0,046) e a escolaridade paterna (P=0,014). Não se mostraram significativos o número de gestações, a história de abortos prévios, o estado civil, o sexo dos pacientes, o tipo de serviço e a localidade em que foram realizados o pré-natal e a ultra-sonografia obstétrica, a indicação da ecografia, o número de ultra-sonografias realizadas, a renda familiar e a escolaridade materna. À análise multivariada, apenas a presença de alteração do ritmo cardíaco durante a ultra-sonografia obstétrica mostrou-se como variável independente associada à suspeita pré-natal de anormalidade cardíaca. Este trabalho demonstra que a ultra-sonografia obstétrica de rotina ainda tem sido subutilizada no rastreamento pré-natal de cardiopatias congênitas, levantando a suspeita de anormalidades estruturais em apenas um quinto dos casos. Considerando a importância prognóstica do diagnóstico intra-uterino de cardiopatias congênitas e arritmias graves, todos os esforços devem ser mobilizados no sentido de aumentar a eficácia da ecografia obstétrica de rotina para a suspeita de anormalidades cardíacas fetais. O treinamento dirigido dos ultra-sonografistas e a conscientização do meio obstétrico e da própria população são instrumentos para esta ação.

Prevalência da infecção genital pelo vírus herpes simples tipo 1 e 2 em mulheres grávidas e não grávidas de Natal/RN

Herpes simplex is a virus that can be transmitted sexually and is potentially associated with vertical transmission. This study evaluated the prevalence of genital infection by herpes simplex virus (HSV) types 1 and 2 in pregnant and nonpregnant care in the city of Natal / RN, including a total of 222 women, 92 pregnant and 130 nonpregnant. The participants answered a questionnaire to obtain data and socio-demographic characteristics, as well as potential risk factors for sexually transmitted diseases. After the interview, we collected two cervical specimens, one for the Pap test and the other for DNA extraction and analyzed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) to detect both virus serotypes. Then the women underwent a clinical examination by colposcopy. For statistical analysis, we used the chi-square and logistic regression by SSPS 17.0 Statistic. Most women were up to 30 years of age, nonwhite ethnicity, married, elementary education, family income below the poverty level; initiated sexual activity with age up to 18 years; had more than one sexual partner lifelong and was not pregnant, but has had at least one child. The HSV-1 showed a prevalence of 26.1% among pregnant women and 30.0% in non-pregnant women. While HSV-2 prevalence was found with 10.9% and 19.2% in pregnant and nonpregnant women, respectively. The largest proportion of morphological changes of the uterine cervix was detected among nonpregnant women, both in cytology and in colposcopy. The women were nonwhite ethnicity, married, became pregnant aged less than or equal to 18 years and who had one to two pregnancies had a lower risk of acquiring genital HSV infection. There was a high prevalence of genital HSV infection, HSV-1 is more prevalent than HSV-2. No association was found between morphological changes of the uterine cervix and the presence of the virus in pregnant and nonpregnant women, nor between genital HSV infection and the classic risk factors for sexually transmitted diseases

Equação de regressão linear múltipla para estimativa do erro experimental

Este trabalho teve por objetivo estimar equações de regressão linear múltipla tendo, como variáveis explicativas, as demais características avaliadas em experimento de milho e, como variáveis principais, a diferença mínima significativa em percentagem da média (DMS%) e quadrado médio do erro (QMe), para peso de grãos. Com 610 experimentos conduzidos na Rede de Ensaios Nacionais de Competição de Cultivares de Milho, realizados entre 1986 e 1996 (522 experimentos) e em 1997 (88 experimentos), estimaram-se duas equações de regressão, com os 522 experimentos, validando estas pela análise de regressão simples entre os valores reais e os estimados pelas equações, com os 88 restantes, observando que, para a DMS% a equação não estimava o mesmo valor que a fórmula original e, para o QMe, a equação poderia ser utilizada na estimação. Com o teste de Lilliefors, verificou-se que os valores do QMe aderiam à distribuição normal padrão e foi construída uma tabela de classificação dos valores do QMe, baseada nos valores observados na análise da variância dos experimentos e nos estimados pela equação de regressão.

Bayesian analysis of random regression models using B-splines to model test-day milk yield of Holstein cattle in Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Influência das condições de saúde bucal no desempenho das atividades diárias de adolescentes escolares

Instruments are used in odontology to measure the Quality of Life Related to Oral Health (OHRQoL) to scale how the oral condition interferes with functional areas, of the people s psychological and social life. This cross-sectional study, held in Natal/RN, with 215 students from the Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Rio Grande do Norte (IFRN) has investigated the association between the performance of daily activities and oral health status of school adolescents from 15 to 19 years of age, through the normative index DMFT (permanent teeth decayed, missing and filled), CPI (Community Periodontal Index) and DAI (dental Aesthetic Index) and subjective questionnaire assessment of quality of life related oral health OIDP index (oral impacts on daily performance). It was also carried out the socioeconomic characteristics of students through IFRN own data. Concerning the analysis of data was performed a descriptive analysis of the variables by their absolute and relative frequencies and measures of central tendency. The chi-square test was used to assess the association between the dependent variable and the independent categorical variables and the Student t test for quantitative. It was also conducted a further multiple analysis out using Poisson regression with robust variance between the outcome "presence of impact" and the independent variables that showed p <0.20. It was used for all the statistical tests a significance level of 5%. Among the adolescents surveyed, 51.16% reported that at least one activity assessed by OIDP had hampered its implementation due to some dental problem. The difficulties were more pronounced in the activities of eating (31.6%), oral hygiene (25.6%) and smile (25.1%).The tooth position, followed by toothache, were the causes of the impacts reported by most teenagers. There was a significant association between the presence and impact of the presence of one or more decayed teeth (p = 0.012), the presence of gum bleeding (p = 0.012) and for orthodontic treatment (p = 0.003), independently of other variables. There was no significant association between oral health status and socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of the adolescents. The survey results showed that there is an association between oral health status of the population studied and reports of difficulties in carrying out daily activities evaluated. The worse the oral health status, the greater the impact of this condition on the adolescents quality of life

TRAIL-R3-related apoptosis: Epigenetic and expression analyses in women with ovarian neoplasia

Objective. To assess the expression of TRAIL-R3 and the methylation of a CpG island within the TRAIL-R3 promoter both in cystadenoma tumors and primary and metastatic epithelial ovarian carcinoma (EOC).Methods. RNA was obtained from women with normal ovarian (NO) tissues (n = 18), ovarian serous cystadenoma tumors (n = 11) and EOC (n = 16) using Trizol (R). Quantitative PCR (gRT-PCR) was performed to quantify the relative levels of TRAIL-R3. The methylation frequency of the CpG island in the TRAIL-R3 promoter was assessed using the methylation-specific PCR (MSP) assay after DNA bisulfite conversion. The differences between the groups were evaluated using the chi-square, Student's t, ANOVA, Mann-Whitney U, Wilcoxon or Kruskal-Wallis tests as indicated. The survival rates were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method.Results. Cystadenoma and metastatic EOC tumors expressed significantly more TRAIL-R3 mRNA than primary EOC tumors. Methylation of the TRAIL-R3 promoter was absent in NO tissues, while hemimethylation of the TRAIL-R3 promoter was frequently found in the neoplasia samples with 45.4% of the cystadenoma tumors, 8.3% of the primary EOC samples and 11.1% of the metastatic EOC samples showing at least partial methylation (p = 0.018). Neither the expression of TRAIL-R3 nor alterations in the methylation profile were associated to cumulative progression-free survival or the overall survival in EOC patients.Conclusions. Primary EOC is associated to a lower TRAIL-R3 expression, which leads to a better understanding of the complex disease and highlighting potential therapeutic targets. Promoter DNA methylation was not related to this finding, suggesting the presence of other mechanisms to transcriptional control. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of a portable clinical analyzer for the determination of blood gas partial pressures, electrolyte concentrations, and hematocrit in venous blood samples collected from cattle, horses, and sheep

Objective To compare results reported for blood gas partial pressures, electrolyte concentrations, and Hct in venous blood samples collected from cattle, horses, and sheep and analyzed by use of a portable clinical analyzer (PCA) and reference analyzer (RA).Animals-Clinically normal animals (24 cattle, 22 horses, and 22 sheep).Procedures-pH; Pco(2); Po(2); total carbon dioxide concentration; oxygen saturation; base excess; concentrations of HCO(3)(-), Na(+), K(+), and ionized calcium; Hct; and hemoglobin concentration were determined with a PCA. Results were compared with those obtained for the same blood sample with an RA. Bias (mean difference) and variability (95% confidence interval) were determined for all data reported. Data were also subjected to analyses by Deming regression and Pearson correlation.Results-Analysis of Bland-Altman plots revealed good agreement between results obtained with the PCA and those obtained with the RA for pH and total carbon dioxide concentration in cattle, K(+) concentration in horses and sheep, and base excess in horses. Except for Na(+) concentration and Hct in horses and sheep, correlation was good or excellent for most variables reported.Conclusions and Clinical Relevance-Data from blood gas and electrolyte analyses obtained by use of the PCA can be used to evaluate the health status of cattle, horses, and sheep. Furthermore, the handheld PCA device may have a great advantage over the RA device as a result of the ability to analyze blood samples on farms that may be located far from urban centers. (Am J Vet Res 2010;71:515-521)