Paradigms in Statistical Inference for Finite Populations; Up to the 1950s

Modern sample surveys started to spread after statistician at the U.S. Bureau of the Census in the 1940s had developed a sampling design for the Current Population Survey (CPS). A significant factor was also that digital computers became available for statisticians. In the beginning of 1950s, the theory was documented in textbooks on survey sampling. This thesis is about the development of the statistical inference for sample surveys. For the first time the idea of statistical inference was enunciated by a French scientist, P. S. Laplace. In 1781, he published a plan for a partial investigation in which he determined the sample size needed to reach the desired accuracy in estimation. The plan was based on Laplace s Principle of Inverse Probability and on his derivation of the Central Limit Theorem. They were published in a memoir in 1774 which is one of the origins of statistical inference. Laplace s inference model was based on Bernoulli trials and binominal probabilities. He assumed that populations were changing constantly. It was depicted by assuming a priori distributions for parameters. Laplace s inference model dominated statistical thinking for a century. Sample selection in Laplace s investigations was purposive. In 1894 in the International Statistical Institute meeting, Norwegian Anders Kiaer presented the idea of the Representative Method to draw samples. Its idea was that the sample would be a miniature of the population. It is still prevailing. The virtues of random sampling were known but practical problems of sample selection and data collection hindered its use. Arhtur Bowley realized the potentials of Kiaer s method and in the beginning of the 20th century carried out several surveys in the UK. He also developed the theory of statistical inference for finite populations. It was based on Laplace s inference model. R. A. Fisher contributions in the 1920 s constitute a watershed in the statistical science He revolutionized the theory of statistics. In addition, he introduced a new statistical inference model which is still the prevailing paradigm. The essential idea is to draw repeatedly samples from the same population and the assumption that population parameters are constants. Fisher s theory did not include a priori probabilities. Jerzy Neyman adopted Fisher s inference model and applied it to finite populations with the difference that Neyman s inference model does not include any assumptions of the distributions of the study variables. Applying Fisher s fiducial argument he developed the theory for confidence intervals. Neyman s last contribution to survey sampling presented a theory for double sampling. This gave the central idea for statisticians at the U.S. Census Bureau to develop the complex survey design for the CPS. Important criterion was to have a method in which the costs of data collection were acceptable, and which provided approximately equal interviewer workloads, besides sufficient accuracy in estimation.

Rätt som argument : Leo Mechelin och finska frågan 1886-1912

Right as an Argument. Leo Mechelin and the Finnish Question 1886-1912 At the turn of the 20th century the Finnish Question rose up as a political and juridical issue at the international arena. The vaguely précised position of Finland in the Russian empire led to diverse conclusions concerning the correctness of the February manifesto of 1899. It was predominantly among a European elite of politicians, cultural workers and academics the issue rose some interest. Finns were active making propaganda for their cause, and they put an emphasis on the claim that the right was on the Finnish side. In the study Elisabeth Stubb compare the Finnish, Russian and European statements about the Finnish Question and analyse their use of right as an argument. The Finnish Question offers at the same time a case study of a national entity which possesses a political sphere of life but is not fully independent, and its possibilities to drive its interests in an international context. Leo Mechelin (1839-1914), the leader of the Finnish propaganda organization abroad, is used as a point of departure. The biographical stance is formed into a triangle, where Leo Mechelin, the idea of right and the Finnish Question abroad are the three cornerstones. The treatment of one cornerstone sheds a ligth on the two others. The metaphor of triangulation also worked as a method to reach "a third stance" in a scinetific and political issue that usually is polarised into two opposite alternatives. An adherence to a strict legal right could not in the end offer a complete, unquestionable and satisfactory solution to the Finnsih Question, it was dependent on "the right of state wisdom and sound insight". The Finnish propaganda abroad used almost completely alternative ways of making politics. The propaganda did not have a decisive effect on countries' official politics, but gained unofficial support, especially in the public opinion and in academic statements. Mechelin claimed that the political field was dependent on public opinion and scientific research. Together with the official politics these two fields formed a triangle that shared the task of balancing the political arena and preventing it from making unwise decisions of taking an unjust turn. The international sphere worked as a balancing part in the Finnish Question. Mechelin tried by claiming the status of state for Finland's part to secure the country a place at the official international arena. At the same time, and especially when the claim was not fully adopted, he emphasised, and in a European context worked for, that right would become the guiding light not only for international relations, but also for the policy making in the inner life of the state.

Deutschland, Deutschland über alles : Tysk föreningsverksamhet i Finland och Sverige 1910-1950

The voluntary associations dealt with in this dissertation were ethnic clubs and societies promoting the interests of German immigrants in Finland and Sweden. The associations were founded at the end of the 19th century as well as at the beginning of the 20th century during a time in which migration was high, the civil society grew rapidly and nationalism flourished. The work includes over 70 different associations in Finland and Sweden with a number of members ranging from ten to at most 2, 500. The largest and most important associations were situated in Helsinki and Stockholm where also most of the German immigrants lived. The main aim of this work is to explore to what extent and how the changes in government in Germany during 1910 to 1950 were reflected in the structures and participants, financial resources and meeting places, networks and activities of the German associations in Finland and Sweden. The study also deals with how a collective German national identity was created within the German associations. The period between 1910 and 1950 has been described by Hobsbawm as the apogee of nationalism. Nationalism and transnationalism are therefore key elements in the work. Additionally the research deals with theories about associations, networking and identity. The analysis is mostly based on minutes of meetings, descriptions of festivities, annual reports and historical outlines about the associations. Archival sources from the German legations, the German Foreign Office, and Finnish and Swedish officials such as the police and the Foreign Offices are also used. The study shows that the collective national identity in the associations during the Weimar Republic mostly went back to the time of the Wilhelmine Empire. It is argued that this fact, the cultural propaganda and the aims of the Weimar Republic to strengthen the contacts between Germany and the German associations abroad, and the role of the German legations and envoys finally helped the small groups of NSDAP to infiltrate, systematically coordinate and finally centralize the German associational life in Finland and Sweden. The Gleichschaltung did not go as smoothly as the party wanted, though. There was a small but consistent opposition that continued to exist in Finland until 1941 and in Sweden until 1945. The collective national identity was displayed much more in Sweden than in Finland, where the associations kept a lower profile. The reasons for the profile differences can be found in the smaller number of German immigrants in Finland and the greater German propaganda in Sweden, but also in the Finnish association act from 1919 and the changes in it during the 1920s and 1930s. Finally, the research shows how the loss of two world wars influenced the associations. It argues that 1918 made the German associations more vulnerable to influence from Germany, whereas 1945 brought the associational life back to where it once started as welfare, recreational and school associations.

The top 100 questions of importance to the future of global agriculture

Despite a significant growth in food production over the past half-century, one of the most important challenges facing society today is how to feed an expected population of some nine billion by the middle of the 20th century. To meet the expected demand for food without significant increases in prices, it has been estimated that we need to produce 70-100 per cent more food, in light of the growing impacts of climate change, concerns over energy security, regional dietary shifts and the Millennium Development target of halving world poverty and hunger by 2015. The goal for the agricultural sector is no longer simply to maximize productivity, but to optimize across a far more complex landscape of production, rural development, environmental, social justice and food consumption outcomes. However, there remain significant challenges to developing national and international policies that support the wide emergence of more sustainable forms of land use and efficient agricultural production. The lack of information flow between scientists, practitioners and policy makers is known to exacerbate the difficulties, despite increased emphasis upon evidence-based policy. In this paper, we seek to improve dialogue and understanding between agricultural research and policy by identifying the 100 most important questions for global agriculture. These have been compiled using a horizon-scanning approach with leading experts and representatives of major agricultural organizations worldwide. The aim is to use sound scientific evidence to inform decision making and guide policy makers in the future direction of agricultural research priorities and policy support. If addressed, we anticipate that these questions will have a significant impact on global agricultural practices worldwide, while improving the synergy between agricultural policy, practice and research. This research forms part of the UK Government's Foresight Global Food and Farming Futures project.

On the basin-scale detection and attribution of human-induced climate change in monsoon precipitation and streamflow

Detecting and quantifying the presence of human-induced climate change in regional hydrology is important for studying the impacts of such changes on the water resources systems as well as for reliable future projections and policy making for adaptation. In this article a formal fingerprint-based detection and attribution analysis has been attempted to study the changes in the observed monsoon precipitation and streamflow in the rain-fed Mahanadi River Basin in India, considering the variability across different climate models. This is achieved through the use of observations, several climate model runs, a principal component analysis and regression based statistical downscaling technique, and a Genetic Programming based rainfall-runoff model. It is found that the decreases in observed hydrological variables across the second half of the 20th century lie outside the range that is expected from natural internal variability of climate alone at 95% statistical confidence level, for most of the climate models considered. For several climate models, such changes are consistent with those expected from anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. However, unequivocal attribution to human-induced climate change cannot be claimed across all the climate models and uncertainties in our detection procedure, arising out of various sources including the use of models, cannot be ruled out. Changes in solar irradiance and volcanic activities are considered as other plausible natural external causes of climate change. Time evolution of the anthropogenic climate change ``signal'' in the hydrological observations, above the natural internal climate variability ``noise'' shows that the detection of the signal is achieved earlier in streamflow as compared to precipitation for most of the climate models, suggesting larger impacts of human-induced climate change on streamflow than precipitation at the river basin scale.

Performance evaluation of AR4 Climate Models in simulating daily precipitation over the Indian region using skill scores

The ability of Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) participating in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's fourth assessment report (IPCC AR4) for the 20th century climate (20C3M scenario) to simulate the daily precipitation over the Indian region is explored. The skill is evaluated on a 2.5A degrees x 2.5A degrees grid square compared with the Indian Meteorological Department's (IMD) gridded dataset, and every GCM is ranked for each of these grids based on its skill score. Skill scores (SSs) are estimated from the probability density functions (PDFs) obtained from observed IMD datasets and GCM simulations. The methodology takes into account (high) extreme precipitation events simulated by GCMs. The results are analyzed and presented for three categories and six zones. The three categories are the monsoon season (JJASO - June to October), non-monsoon season (JFMAMND - January to May, November, December) and for the entire year (''Annual''). The six precipitation zones are peninsular, west central, northwest, northeast, central northeast India, and the hilly region. Sensitivity analysis was performed for three spatial scales, 2.5A degrees grid square, zones, and all of India, in the three categories. The models were ranked based on the SS. The category JFMAMND had a higher SS than the JJASO category. The northwest zone had higher SSs, whereas the peninsular and hilly regions had lower SS. No single GCM can be identified as the best for all categories and zones. Some models consistently outperformed the model ensemble, and one model had particularly poor performance. Results show that most models underestimated the daily precipitation rates in the 0-1 mm/day range and overestimated it in the 1-15 mm/day range.

Using long time series of agricultural-derived nitrates for estimating catchment transit times

The estimation of water and solute transit times in catchments is crucial for predicting the response of hydrosystems to external forcings (climatic or anthropogenic). The hydrogeochemical signatures of tracers (either natural or anthropogenic) in streams have been widely used to estimate transit times in catchments as they integrate the various processes at stake. However, most of these tracers are well suited for catchments with mean transit times lower than about 4-5 years. Since the second half of the 20th century, the intensification of agriculture led to a general increase of the nitrogen load in rivers. As nitrate is mainly transported by groundwater in agricultural catchments, this signal can be used to estimate transit times greater than several years, even if nitrate is not a conservative tracer. Conceptual hydrological models can be used to estimate catchment transit times provided their consistency is demonstrated, based on their ability to simulate the stream chemical signatures at various time scales and catchment internal processes such as N storage in groundwater. The objective of this study was to assess if a conceptual lumped model was able to simulate the observed patterns of nitrogen concentration, at various time scales, from seasonal to pluriannual and thus if it was relevant to estimate the nitrogen transit times in headwater catchments. A conceptual lumped model, representing shallow groundwater flow as two parallel linear stores with double porosity, and riparian processes by a constant nitrogen removal function, was applied on two paired agricultural catchments which belong to the Research Observatory ORE AgrHys. The Global Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) approach was used to estimate parameter values and uncertainties. The model performance was assessed on (i) its ability to simulate the contrasted patterns of stream flow and stream nitrate concentrations at seasonal and inter-annual time scales, (ii) its ability to simulate the patterns observed in groundwater at the same temporal scales, and (iii) the consistency of long-term simulations using the calibrated model and the general pattern of the nitrate concentration increase in the region since the beginning of the intensification of agriculture in the 1960s. The simulated nitrate transit times were found more sensitive to climate variability than to parameter uncertainty, and average values were found to be consistent with results from others studies in the same region involving modeling and groundwater dating. This study shows that a simple model can be used to simulate the main dynamics of nitrogen in an intensively polluted catchment and then be used to estimate the transit times of these pollutants in the system which is crucial to guide mitigation plans design and assessment. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Actividades de las autoridades argentinas y la embajada española sobre los anarquistas antes de la Ley de Residencia

Resumen: El presente trabajo investiga la actuación de la Embajada de España con respecto a la entrada a la Argentina de inmigrantes con antecedentes anarquistas durante fines del siglo XIX y los primeros dos años del siglo XX. Registra además el interés por seguir los movimientos de dichos inmigrantes en el país. Se destaca el rol de la documentación diplomática, mediante la cual la Embajada española se mantenía en permanente contacto con el gobierno central, con las autoridades argentinas y con los consulados del interior para intercambiar información. A través de las fuentes se puede observar la labor de “inteligencia ideológica” que se realizó y el detallado conocimiento que se tenía sobre los anarquistas, sus vías de traslado hacia nuestro país, sus profesiones, paraderos, domicilios, relaciones, y las minuciosas descripciones físicas de los sospechados. En esta política se nota la coparticipación entre la Embajada de España y las instituciones argentinas para desligarse de elementos que denominaban “no deseados”. También se consideran las relaciones entre el anarquismo argentino y el español, así como la importancia de la prensa revolucionaria, aun sobre la misma España. La vigilancia que ejercía la Embajada española sobre los inmigrantes, el control sobre los anarquistas españoles en la Argentina y la influencia de éstos sobre los sucesos de la Península demuestran a las claras la preocupación del gobierno hispano en la cuestión.

Unemployment and private returns to higher education in Argentina (1974-2002)

Resumen: El trabajo analiza la evolución de los retornos privados a la educación superior en Argentina durante el período 1974–2002 y cómo éstos se vieron afectados por el desempleo. La conclusión es que los retornos a la educación son mayores si se los corrige teniendo en cuenta el desempleo para cada nivel educativo, ya que a mayor nivel, menor tasa de desempleo. Al evaluar invertir en educación no se debería considerar simplemente el diferencial de ingresos sino también la mayor probabilidad de tener un trabajo. Esto es relevante en un país como Argentina que pasó de tener tasas de desempleo cercanas a 5% en la década del ochenta a tener tasas de dos dígitos a fines del siglo XX y comienzos del XXI.

Los índices de democracia y la política argentina : sobre la validez de las mediciones

Resumen: Entre quienes han emprendido estudios para medir el fenómeno de la democracia, no existe hoy un acuerdo acerca de cuál es la definición operativa sobre la que deben construirse los índices, ni tampoco sobre cuáles son los atributos que deben medirse o la regla de agregación más adecuada a fin de reflejar las similitudes y las diferencias entre regímenes en el tiempo y el espacio. Es precisamente por estas diferencias que los diferentes índices disponibles pueden bien describir historias distintas acerca de un mismo fenómeno histórico. Este trabajo tiene como objetivo comparar la manera en que algunos de estos índices relatan la evolución de la democracia, a la luz de una serie de hitos en la historia política argentina durante el siglo XX y la primera década del siglo XXI. En este trabajo se revisan cuatro de los índices más conocidos de democracia: el Índice Democracia-Dictadura de Przeworski, extendido por Cheibub; el Índice de Democracia de Vanhanen; el índice Polity IV; y el índice de Freedom House. Sobre la base de diferentes sucesos de la política argentina, desde 1900 hasta 2011, este trabajo analiza la evolución de la democracia que cada uno de estos índices relata para evaluar cuál de ellos refleja de manera más fiel los hechos que han moldeado la historia democrática Argentina.

Le relativisme idéologique

Abstract: From a general standpoint, current thought is dominated by an ideological relativism which considers that truth depends on whom asserts a certain statement. This stance, related to Protagoras’ perspective, rejects the Enlightenment’s view, especially Kant’s way of thinking, viz. It rejects of all forms of authority, transcendent authority in particular. It also favors the conception of the subject developed by Sartre’s existentialism. However, relativism is the ultimate expression of skepticism which always reflects a painful rational relinquishment of the natural desire for truth. Relativism weakens reason and makes the arrival of ideological and political totalitarianism possible, which the 20th century suffered in its most tragic versions. In order to prevent its consequences and to restore reason’s legitimate confidence in wisdom, modern man ought to find the universal within him and his natural thirst for truth, and his transcendent origin. This demands recognizing and accepting humbly man’s condition as a creature, and his dependence on the Verb, who is Truth and Life.

Sobre el uso terapéutico de células estaminales de origen adulto

Resumen: Muy pocas ciencias avanzaron con la celeridad que muestran las ciencias biológicas. Hoy se abren líneas de investigación que, en poco tiempo, se aplican a los pacientes, mejorando notablemente -en la mayoría de los casos- la calidad de vida. Las terapias con células estaminales son un claro ejemplo de ello. Hoy el tema se ha instalado en la sociedad como parte de la agenda pública. Esta exposición ha llevado a la sociedad a una recepción con un lamentable doble riesgo: perder rigor científico y generar falsas expectativas en muchos pacientes. Dicha polémica también afecta las relaciones entre diversos grupos de investigadores y genera desconfianza en la comunidad científica. Desde la última mitad del siglo XX se ha instalado en las ciencias la necesidad de no escindir el campo de la investigación de las consecuencias éticas que siguen de esa praxis. La causa es evidente: la celeridad de los descubrimientos y su rápida aplicación hacen que, así como los efectos positivos alcanzan a una gran cantidad de personas, en caso de surgir efectos negativos imprevistos, el daño pueda ser igualmente multiplicado. La bioética surge así como un reclamo de los mismos investigadores que decidieron dar un cauce ético a su acción.

El abastecimiento de agua corriente en la ciudad de Córdoba (1900-1910) : continuidad y cambio en la gestión

Resumen: Desde un punto de vista general el agua es definida en la actualidad como un recurso natural no renovable en cantidad, recuperable en calidad y con posibilidad de nuevo uso (re-uso) en continua mutación dentro del ciclo hidrológico. A la vez posee las categorías de bien común como elemento esencial para la vida humana y que como tal no tiene precio, y de recurso hídrico con dimensión económica como insumo, que supone un valor mensurable. Los recursos hídricos y su gestión forman parte de la administración pública, como pueden serlo la energía o la salud. La organización adecuada de un servicio, y las formas institucionales a través de las que se presta, varían de acuerdo a las épocas, los costes tecnológicos, los de distribución, organización y regulación, resultando un aspecto importante del análisis la implementación y funcionamiento del servicio público. Atendiendo a estos aspectos teóricos, este trabajo continua con la problemática del abastecimiento de agua corriente en la ciudad de Córdoba, ahora en la primera década del siglo XX, manteniendo el supuesto de que las dificultades para el abastecimiento de agua obedecen a razones de orden natural, a dificultades económicas y a enfrentamientos políticos, en el marco de un Estado que aún posee limitaciones de índole institucional y administrativo, por lo cual intervendrán el gobierno provincial y Nacional para la concreción de las obras de salubridad, en una ciudad y un país enrolados en el proceso de modernización impulsado por el deseo de adecuación al modelo de vida europeo. Seguimos analizando las fuentes inéditas del Archivo Histórico Municipal de Córdoba, fuentes oficiales editas, publicaciones periódicas y bibliografía tanto general como específica.

La influencia de Diego Abad de Santillán en la conformación de una red intelectual libertaria latinoamericana, 1920-1930

Resumen: El anarquismo encontró en el internacionalismo un elemento esencial para la unión del movimiento libertario, pues consideraba que una alianza universal se lograría sólo atravesando las fronteras. Fueron numerosos los pensadores ácratas que buscaron cumplir este objetivo y que, desde su papel de teóricos-militantes, no sólo contribuyeron a la conformación del universo intelectual anarquista en Buenos Aires en las primeras décadas del siglo XX sino que, a través de su rol de agentes activos en el proceso de gestación, recepción y circulación de ideas, intentaron relacionar el anarquismo local con el latinoamericano y el europeo. Dentro de este grupo se destacó, entre los años 1920 y 1930, Diego Abad de Santillán quien, tanto en su papel de teórico como de militante, periodista, escritor, editor y traductor, constituyó una pieza fundamental para el engranaje intelectual libertario desplegado entre Europa y América Latina, e integró el conjunto de pensadores que lideraron el anarquismo argentino. Al cruzar ambos movimientos, no sólo actuó como nexo sino que también buscó representar, y dar respuestas, a los múltiples y variados intereses de la clase trabajadora.

La dirigencia y la formación de recursos especializados para el desarrollo comercial, en la ciudad puerto de Rosario y su región, 1890-1943

Resumen: La ciudad de Rosario y su región experimentó en las primeras décadas del siglo XX un proceso de modernización institucional sin precedentes por su magnitud. En el presente artículo se analiza la interrelación entre sectores de la dirigencia, puntualmente la vinculada al sistema educativo provincial y la Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario, por generar recursos especializados que acompañaran el crecimiento de la actividad mercantil y la transferencia de dichos recursos a una de las principales ramas de la producción: la comercialización de cereales. De allí que el trabajo consta de tres partes: el movimiento Pro Escuela de Comercio, el movimiento pro universidad y el inicio del proceso de transferencia de las primeras investigaciones académicas del área.