923 resultados para Future Scenarios.


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The increased adoption of business process management approaches, tools and practices, has led organizations to accumulate large collections of business process models. These collections can easily include hundred to thousand models, especially in the context of multinational corporations or as a result of organizational mergers and acquisitions. A concrete problem is thus how to maintain these large repositories in such a way that their complexity does not hamper their practical usefulness as a means to describe and communicate business operations. This paper proposes a technique to automatically infer suitable names for business process models and fragments thereof. This technique is useful for model abstraction scenarios, as for instance when user-specific views of a repository are required, or as part of a refactoring initiative aimed to simplify the repository’s complexity. The technique is grounded in an adaptation of the theory of meaning to the realm of business process models. We implemented the technique in a prototype tool and conducted an extensive evaluation using three process model collections from practice and a case study involving process modelers with different experience.

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Educational and developmental psychology faces a number of current and future challenges and opportunities in Australia. In this commentary we consider the identity of educational and developmental psychology in terms of the features that distinguish it from other specialisations, and address issues related to training, specialist endorsement, supervision and rebating under the Australian government's Medicare system. The current status of training in Australia is considered through a review of the four university programs in educational and developmental psychology currently offered, and the employment destinations of their graduates. Although the need for traditional services in settings such as schools, hospitals, disability and community organisations will undoubtedly continue, the role of educational and developmental psychologists is being influenced and to some extent redefined by advances in technology, medicine, genetics, and neuroscience. We review some of these advances and conclude with recommendations for training and professional development that will enable Australian educational and developmental psychologists to meet the challenges ahead.

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Saudi Arabian education is undergoing substantial reform in the context of a nation transitioning from a resource-rich economy to a knowledge economy. Gifted students are important human resources for such developing countries. However, there are some concerns emanating from the international literature that gifted students have been neglected in many schools due to teachers’ attitudes toward them. The literature shows that future teachers also hold similar negative attitudes, especially those in Special Education courses who, as practicing teachers, are often responsible for supporting the gifted education process. The purpose of this study was to explore whether these attitudes are held by future special education teachers in Saudi Arabia, and how the standard gifted education course, delivered as part of their program, impacts on their attitudes toward gifted students. The study was strongly influenced by the Theory of Reasoned Action (Ajzen, 1980, 2012) and the Theory of Personal Knowledge (Polanyi, 1966), which both suggest that attitudes are related to people’s (i.e. teachers’) beliefs. A mixed methods design was used to collect quantitative and qualitative data from a cohort of students enrolled in a teacher education program at a Saudi Arabian university. The program was designed for students majoring in special education. The quantitative component of the study involved an investigation of a cohort of future special education teachers taking a semester-long course in gifted education. The data were primarily sourced from a standard questionnaire instrument modified in the Arabic language, and supplemented with questions that probed the future teachers’ attitudes toward gifted children. The participants, 90 special education future teachers, were enrolled in an introductory course about gifted education. The questionnaire contained 34 items from the "Opinions about the Gifted and Their Education" (Gagné, 1991) questionnaire, utilising a five-point Likert scale. The quantitative data were analysed through the use of descriptive statistics, Spearman correlation Coefficients, Paired Samples t-test, and Multiple Linear Regression. The qualitative component focussed on eight participants enrolled in the gifted education course. The primary source of the qualitative data was informed by individual semi-structured interviews with each of these participants. The findings, based on both the quantitative and qualitative data, indicated that the majority of future special education teachers held, overall, slightly positive attitudes toward gifted students and their education. However, the participants were resistant to offering special services for the gifted within the regular classroom, even when a comparison was made on equity grounds with disabled students. While the participants held ambivalent attitudes toward ability grouping, their attitudes were positive toward grade acceleration. Further, the majority agreed that gifted students are likely to be rejected by their teachers. Despite such judgments, they considered the gifted to be a valuable resource for Saudi society. Differences within the cohort were found when two variables emerged as potential predictors of attitude: age, experience, and participants’ hometown. The younger (under 25 years old) future special education teachers, with no internship or school practice experience, held more positive attitudes toward the gifted students, with respect to their general needs, than did the older participants with previous school experiences. Additionally, participants from a rural region were more resistant toward gifted education than future teachers from urban areas. The findings also indicated that the attitudes of most of the participants were significantly improved, as a result of the course, toward ability grouping such as special classes and schools, but remained highly concerned about differentiation within regular classrooms with either elitism or time pressure. From the findings, it can be confirmed that a lectured-based course can serve as a starting point from which to focus future teachers’ attention on the varied needs of the gifted, and as a conduit for learning about special services for the gifted. However, by itself, the course appears to have minimal influence on attitudes toward differentiation. As a consequence, there is merit in its redevelopment, and the incorporation of more practical opportunities for future teachers to experience the teaching of the gifted.

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Chlamydia trachomatis continues to be the most commonly reported sexually transmitted bacterial infection in many countries with more than 100 million new cases estimated annually. These acute infections translate into significant downstream health care costs, particularly for women, where complications can include pelvic inflammatory disease and other disease sequelae such as tubal factor infertility. Despite years of research, the immunological mechanisms responsible for protective immunity versus immunopathology are still not well understood, although it is widely accepted that T cell driven IFN-g and Th17 responses are critical for clearing infection. While antibodies are able to neutralize infections in vitro, alone they are not protective, indicating that any successful vaccine will need to elicit both arms of the immune response. In recent years, there has been an expansion in the number and types of antigens that have been evaluated as vaccines, and combined with the new array of mucosal adjuvants, this aspect of chlamydial vaccinology is showing promise. Most recently, the opportunities to develop successful vaccines have been given a significant boost with the development of a genetic transformation system for Chlamydia, as well as the identification of the key role of the chlamydial plasmid in virulence. While still remaining a major challenge, the development of a successful C.trachomatis vaccine is starting to look more likely.

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The paper attempts to project the future trend of the gender wage gap in Australia up to 2031. The empirical analysis utilises the Income Distribution Survey (1996) together with Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) demographic projections. The methodology combines the ABS projections with assumptions relating to the evolution of educational attainment in order to project the future distribution of human capital skills and consequently the future size of the gender wage gap. The analysis suggests that female relative pay will continue to rise up to 2031. However, gender wage convergence will be relatively slow, with a substantial gap remaining in 2031.

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Purpose – The paper attempts to project the future trend of the gender wage gap in Great Britain up to 2031. Design/methodology/approach – The empirical analysis utilises the British Household Panel Study Wave F together with Office for National Statistics (ONS) demographic projections. The methodology combines the ONS projections with assumptions relating to the evolution of educational attainment in order to project the future distribution of human capital skills and consequently the future size of the gender wage gap. Findings – The analysis suggests that gender wage convergence will be slow, with little female progress by 2031 unless there is a large rise in returns to female experience. Originality/value – The paper has projected the pattern of male and female skill acquisition together with the associated trend in wages up to 2031.

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Nitrous oxide emissions from soil are known to be spatially and temporally volatile. Reliable estimation of emissions over a given time and space depends on measuring with sufficient intensity but deciding on the number of measuring stations and the frequency of observation can be vexing. The question of low frequency manual observations providing comparable results to high frequency automated sampling also arises. Data collected from a replicated field experiment was intensively studied with the intention to give some statistically robust guidance on these issues. The experiment had nitrous oxide soil to air flux monitored within 10 m by 2.5 m plots by automated closed chambers under a 3 h average sampling interval and by manual static chambers under a three day average sampling interval over sixty days. Observed trends in flux over time by the static chambers were mostly within the auto chamber bounds of experimental error. Cumulated nitrous oxide emissions as measured by each system were also within error bounds. Under the temporal response pattern in this experiment, no significant loss of information was observed after culling the data to simulate results under various low frequency scenarios. Within the confines of this experiment observations from the manual chambers were not spatially correlated above distances of 1 m. Statistical power was therefore found to improve due to increased replicates per treatment or chambers per replicate. Careful after action review of experimental data can deliver savings for future work.

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This article explores how universities might engage more effectively with the imperative to develop students’ 21st century skills for the information society, by examining learning challenges and strategies of successful digital media professionals. The findings support a significant body of literature, which argues that legacy university structures and pedagogical approaches are not conducive to optimal professional learning in the digital age. A model of one reimagining of the university is presented, which draws upon the learning preferences of the professionals in this study, as linked with extant theory relating to informal, situated, self-determined learning, communities of practice and personal learning environments.

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Motion capture continues to be adopted across a range of creative fields including, animation, games, visual effects, dance, live theatre and the visual arts. This panel will discuss and showcase the use of motion capture across these creative fields and consider the future of virtual production in the creative industries.

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Pesticides used in agricultural systems must be applied in economically viable and environmentally sensitive ways, and this often requires expensive field trials on spray deposition and retention by plant foliage. Computational models to describe whether a spray droplet sticks (adheres), bounces or shatters on impact, and if any rebounding parent or shatter daughter droplets are recaptured, would provide an estimate of spray retention and thereby act as a useful guide prior to any field trials. Parameter-driven interactive software has been implemented to enable the end-user to study and visualise droplet interception and impaction on a single, horizontal leaf. Living chenopodium, wheat and cotton leaves have been scanned to capture the surface topography and realistic virtual leaf surface models have been generated. Individual leaf models have then been subjected to virtual spray droplets and predictions made of droplet interception with the virtual plant leaf. Thereafter, the impaction behaviour of the droplets and the subsequent behaviour of any daughter droplets, up until re-capture, are simulated to give the predicted total spray retention by the leaf. A series of critical thresholds for the stick, bounce, and shatter elements in the impaction process have been developed for different combinations of formulation, droplet size and velocity, and leaf surface characteristics to provide this output. The results show that droplet properties, spray formulations and leaf surface characteristics all influence the predicted amount of spray retained on a horizontal leaf surface. Overall the predicted spray retention increases as formulation surface tension, static contact angle, droplet size and velocity decreases. Predicted retention on cotton is much higher than on chenopodium. The average predicted retention on a single horizontal leaf across all droplet size, velocity and formulations scenarios tested, is 18, 30 and 85% for chenopodium, wheat and cotton, respectively.

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This article discusses the key concepts that underpin an elective subject, Dispute Resolution Practice, offered in the Queensland University of Technology undergraduate law curriculum. They were conceptualised during a Teaching Fellowship when research was conducted into how to assist future lawyers to conceptualise their dispute resolution advocacy role. The unit also contains the majority of content recommended in the recent National Alternative Dispute Resolution Advisory Council Report, “Teaching Alternative Dispute Resolution in Australian Law Schools”. The environments in which lawyers operate and the knowledge and skills they require to represent clients in negotiation, mediation and conciliation processes will be examined.

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In the field of education, explicit instruction refers to teacher-­‐centred instruction that is focused on clear behavioural and cognitive goals and outcomes. These in turn are made ‘explicit’ or transparent to learners. Sociologist Basil Bernstein defined explicit instruction as featuring “strong classification” and “strong framing”: clearly defined and boundaried knowledge and skills, and teacher-­‐directed interaction. Explicit instruction is affiliated with but not limited to highly structured, instruction in basic skills in early literacy and numeracy education. It is also used in Australian genre-­‐based approaches to writing that stress the value of “explicit” knowledge of grammar and all textual codes. Several major meta-­‐analyses and reviews have identified explicit instruction as a major instructional approach in contemporary schooling...

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This paper presents a novel framework for the modelling of passenger facilitation in a complex environment. The research is motivated by the challenges in the airport complex system, where there are multiple stakeholders, differing operational objectives and complex interactions and interdependencies between different parts of the airport system. Traditional methods for airport terminal modelling do not explicitly address the need for understanding causal relationships in a dynamic environment. Additionally, existing Bayesian Network (BN) models, which provide a means for capturing causal relationships, only present a static snapshot of a system. A method to integrate a BN complex systems model with stochastic queuing theory is developed based on the properties of the Poisson and Exponential distributions. The resultant Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network (HQBN) framework enables the simulation of arbitrary factors, their relationships, and their effects on passenger flow and vice versa. A case study implementation of the framework is demonstrated on the inbound passenger facilitation process at Brisbane International Airport. The predicted outputs of the model, in terms of cumulative passenger flow at intermediary and end points in the inbound process, are found to have an $R^2$ goodness of fit of 0.9994 and 0.9982 respectively over a 10 hour test period. The utility of the framework is demonstrated on a number of usage scenarios including real time monitoring and `what-if' analysis. This framework provides the ability to analyse and simulate a dynamic complex system, and can be applied to other socio-technical systems such as hospitals.

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3D virtual reality, including the current generation of multi-user virtual worlds, has had a long history of use in education and training, and it experienced a surge of renewed interest with the advent of Second Life in 2003. What followed shortly after were several years marked by considerable hype around the use of virtual worlds for teaching, learning and research in higher education. For the moment, uptake of the technology seems to have plateaued, with academics either maintaining the status quo and continuing to use virtual worlds as they have previously done or choosing to opt out altogether. This paper presents a brief review of the use of virtual worlds in the Australian and New Zealand higher education sector in the past and reports on its use in the sector at the present time, based on input from members of the Australian and New Zealand Virtual Worlds Working Group. It then adopts a forward-looking perspective amid the current climate of uncertainty, musing on future directions and offering suggestions for potential new applications in light of recent technological developments and innovations in the area.