The gender wage gap in Australia - The path of future convergence

The paper attempts to project the future trend of the gender wage gap in Australia up to 2031. The empirical analysis utilises the Income Distribution Survey (1996) together with Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) demographic projections. The methodology combines the ABS projections with assumptions relating to the evolution of educational attainment in order to project the future distribution of human capital skills and consequently the future size of the gender wage gap. The analysis suggests that female relative pay will continue to rise up to 2031. However, gender wage convergence will be relatively slow, with a substantial gap remaining in 2031.