The exponentiated generalized gamma distribution with application to lifetime data

A four-parameter extension of the generalized gamma distribution capable of modelling a bathtub-shaped hazard rate function is defined and studied. The beauty and importance of this distribution lies in its ability to model monotone and non-monotone failure rate functions, which are quite common in lifetime data analysis and reliability. The new distribution has a number of well-known lifetime special sub-models, such as the exponentiated Weibull, exponentiated generalized half-normal, exponentiated gamma and generalized Rayleigh, among others. We derive two infinite sum representations for its moments. We calculate the density of the order statistics and two expansions for their moments. The method of maximum likelihood is used for estimating the model parameters and the observed information matrix is obtained. Finally, a real data set from the medical area is analysed.

Double generalized linear model for tissue culture proportion data: a Bayesian perspective

Joint generalized linear models and double generalized linear models (DGLMs) were designed to model outcomes for which the variability can be explained using factors and/or covariates. When such factors operate, the usual normal regression models, which inherently exhibit constant variance, will under-represent variation in the data and hence may lead to erroneous inferences. For count and proportion data, such noise factors can generate a so-called overdispersion effect, and the use of binomial and Poisson models underestimates the variability and, consequently, incorrectly indicate significant effects. In this manuscript, we propose a DGLM from a Bayesian perspective, focusing on the case of proportion data, where the overdispersion can be modeled using a random effect that depends on some noise factors. The posterior joint density function was sampled using Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms, allowing inferences over the model parameters. An application to a data set on apple tissue culture is presented, for which it is shown that the Bayesian approach is quite feasible, even when limited prior information is available, thereby generating valuable insight for the researcher about its experimental results.

Performance of a multi-level TDR system exposed to tropical field conditions - A time-space comparison with tensiometry

Time-domain reflectometry (TDR) is an important technique to obtain series of soil water content measurements in the field. Diode-segmented probes represent an improvement in TDR applicability, allowing measurements of the soil water content profile with a single probe. In this paper we explore an extensive soil water content dataset obtained by tensiometry and TDR from internal drainage experiments in two consecutive years in a tropical soil in Brazil. Comparisons between the variation patterns of the water content estimated by both methods exhibited evidences of deterioration of the TDR system during this two year period at field conditions. The results showed consistency in the variation pattern for the tensiometry data, whereas TDR estimates were inconsistent, with sensitivity decreasing over time. This suggests that difficulties may arise for the long-term use of this TDR system under tropical field conditions. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Economic feasibility of cowpea irrigation in Piaui State

The objective of this work was to evaluate the economic feasibility of cowpea irrigation in Piaui State Brazil. Water balances were carried out on a daily basis using the Thornthwaite and Mather (1955) method, for 165 sites, considering twelve sowings dates and available water capacity in the soil of 20, 40 and 60 mm. The net revenues were estimated with a probability of occurrence of 75%, later being spatialized to Piaui State. Cowpea irrigation was shown to economically viable for all sowing dates, irrespective of the available water capacity. Net revenues varied among several regions of the State, in function of the sowing date and available water capacity in the soil. Considering a planning strategy for Piaui State, sowing on February, I was shown to be most favorable, because it enabled higher net revenue values, covering larger areas of the State.

Bayesian ratemaking procedure of crop insurance contracts with skewed distribution

Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.

Evaluation of algorithms used to order markers on genetic maps

When building genetic maps, it is necessary to choose from several marker ordering algorithms and criteria, and the choice is not always simple. In this study, we evaluate the efficiency of algorithms try (TRY), seriation (SER), rapid chain delineation (RCD), recombination counting and ordering (RECORD) and unidirectional growth (UG), as well as the criteria PARF (product of adjacent recombination fractions), SARF (sum of adjacent recombination fractions), SALOD (sum of adjacent LOD scores) and LHMC (likelihood through hidden Markov chains), used with the RIPPLE algorithm for error verification, in the construction of genetic linkage maps. A linkage map of a hypothetical diploid and monoecious plant species was simulated containing one linkage group and 21 markers with fixed distance of 3 cM between them. In all, 700 F(2) populations were randomly simulated with and 400 individuals with different combinations of dominant and co-dominant markers, as well as 10 and 20% of missing data. The simulations showed that, in the presence of co-dominant markers only, any combination of algorithm and criteria may be used, even for a reduced population size. In the case of a smaller proportion of dominant markers, any of the algorithms and criteria (except SALOD) investigated may be used. In the presence of high proportions of dominant markers and smaller samples (around 100), the probability of repulsion linkage increases between them and, in this case, use of the algorithms TRY and SER associated to RIPPLE with criterion LHMC would provide better results. Heredity (2009) 103, 494-502; doi:10.1038/hdy.2009.96; published online 29 July 2009

A Log-Linear Regression Model for the Beta-Weibull Distribution

We introduce the log-beta Weibull regression model based on the beta Weibull distribution (Famoye et al., 2005; Lee et al., 2007). We derive expansions for the moment generating function which do not depend on complicated functions. The new regression model represents a parametric family of models that includes as sub-models several widely known regression models that can be applied to censored survival data. We employ a frequentist analysis, a jackknife estimator, and a parametric bootstrap for the parameters of the proposed model. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influences on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and present some ways to assess global influences. Further, for different parameter settings, sample sizes, and censoring percentages, several simulations are performed. In addition, the empirical distribution of some modified residuals are displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be extended to a modified deviance residual in the proposed regression model applied to censored data. We define martingale and deviance residuals to evaluate the model assumptions. The extended regression model is very useful for the analysis of real data and could give more realistic fits than other special regression models.

ADAPTABILITY AND STABILITY OF SOYBEAN GENOTYPES UNDER DIFFERENT TIMES OF SOWING

This study aimed to evaluate the average behavior, the genotype x environment (GxE), adaptability and stability of seven soybean cultivars at three sowing dates in Uberlandia-MG. The tests were conducted at Capim Branco Farm, belonging to the Federal University of Uberlandia. Sowing was held on october 29 (1st season), november 24 (2nd season) and december 17 (3rd season) 2007. The experimental design was a randomized, seven genotypes (UFUS Xavante, UFUS Riqueza, UFUS Guarani, UFUS Milionaria, Msoy 8001, Msoy 8411 and Msoy 8914) with three replications in each of three sowing dates. Means were compared by Tukey test at 5% probability. Analysis of adaptability and phenotypic stability of genotypes was performed using the Eberhart and Russell (1966), Lin and Binns (1988) modified by Carneiro (1998) and centroid (NASCIMENTO et al., 2009). For grain yield, the cultivar UFUS Xavante was classified as specific adaptability to environment and high stability. The other cultivars were classified as being of general adaptability. For oil content, the cultivars Msoy 8914 and UFUS Xavante behaved as high stability and was classified as having high adaptability. For the character content of protein, all cultivars behaved as wide adaptability and low stability.

Outcrossing rate in sweet passion fruit based on molecular markers

P>Yellow and sweet passion fruit are insect-pollinated species native to the tropics. Fruits are used commercially for human consumption worldwide. The yellow passion fruit is an outcrossing species with self-incompatible flowers. However, the reproductive system of the sweet passion fruit (Passiflora alata) has not been well elucidated. The objective of this work was to characterize aspects of the mating system in the sweet passion fruit using random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) and microsatellite markers, particularly the rate of outcrossing in P. alata progenies. A multilocus outcrossing rate of t(m) = 0.994 was determined from RAPD and t(m) = 0.940 from microsatellites, supporting P. alata as an outcrossing species. The fixation indices of the maternal generation (F(m)) were -0.200 and 0.071 with RAPD and microsatellite loci, respectively, indicating the absence of inbreeding in the maternal generation. The paternity correlation (r(p)) varied from -0.008 with RAPD markers to 0.208 with microsatellite markers, suggesting a low probability of finding full sibs within the progenies. The results demonstrated that all progenies assessed in this study were derived from outcrossing.

Air Entrainment Processes in a Full-Scale Rectangular Dropshaft at Large Flows

Rectangular dropshafts, commonly used in sewers and storm water systems, are characterised by significant flow aeration. New detailed air-water flow measurements were conducted in a near-full-scale dropshaft at large discharges. In the shaft pool and outflow channel, the results demonstrated the complexity of different competitive air entrainment mechanisms. Bubble size measurements showed a broad range of entrained bubble sizes. Analysis of streamwise distributions of bubbles suggested further some clustering process in the bubbly flow although, in the outflow channel, bubble chords were in average smaller than in the shaft pool. A robust hydrophone was tested to measure bubble acoustic spectra and to assess its field application potential. The acoustic results characterised accurately the order of magnitude of entrained bubble sizes, but the transformation from acoustic frequencies to bubble radii did not predict correctly the probability distribution functions of bubble sizes.

A hybrid probabilistic criterion for market-based transmission expansion planning

Market-based transmission expansion planning gives information to investors on where is the most cost efficient place to invest and brings benefits to those who invest in this grid. However, both market issue and power system adequacy problems are system planers’ concern. In this paper, a hybrid probabilistic criterion of Expected Economical Loss (EEL) is proposed as an index to evaluate the systems’ overall expected economical losses during system operation in a competitive market. It stands on both investors’ and planner’s point of view and will further improves the traditional reliability cost. By applying EEL, it is possible for system planners to obtain a clear idea regarding the transmission network’s bottleneck and the amount of losses arises from this weak point. Sequentially, it enables planners to assess the worth of providing reliable services. Also, the EEL will contain valuable information for moneymen to undertake their investment. This index could truly reflect the random behaviors of power systems and uncertainties from electricity market. The performance of the EEL index is enhanced by applying Normalized Coefficient of Probability (NCP), so it can be utilized in large real power systems. A numerical example is carried out on IEEE Reliability Test System (RTS), which will show how the EEL can predict the current system bottleneck under future operational conditions and how to use EEL as one of planning objectives to determine future optimal plans. A well-known simulation method, Monte Carlo simulation, is employed to achieve the probabilistic characteristic of electricity market and Genetic Algorithms (GAs) is used as a multi-objective optimization tool.

Quantum noise in optical fibers. I. Stochastic equations

We analyze the quantum dynamics of radiation propagating in a single-mode optical fiber with dispersion, nonlinearity, and Raman coupling to thermal phonons. We start from a fundamental Hamiltonian that includes the principal known nonlinear effects and quantum-noise sources, including linear gain and loss. Both Markovian and frequency-dependent, non-Markovian reservoirs are treated. This treatment allows quantum Langevin equations, which have a classical form except for additional quantum-noise terms, to be calculated. In practical calculations, it is more useful to transform to Wigner or 1P quasi-probability operator representations. These transformations result in stochastic equations that can be analyzed by use of perturbation theory or exact numerical techniques. The results have applications to fiber-optics communications, networking, and sensor technology.

Strategic argumentation: A game theoretical investigation

Argumentation is modelled as a game where the payoffs are measured in terms of the probability that the claimed conclusion is, or is not, defeasibly provable, given a history of arguments that have actually been exchanged, and given the probability of the factual premises. The probability of a conclusion is calculated using a standard variant of Defeasible Logic, in combination with standard probability calculus. It is a new element of the present approach that the exchange of arguments is analysed with game theoretical tools, yielding a prescriptive and to some extent even predictive account of the actual course of play. A brief comparison with existing argument-based dialogue approaches confirms that such a prescriptive account of the actual argumentation has been almost lacking in the approaches proposed so far.

What is the Problem of Ad Hoc Hypotheses?

The received view of an ad hoc hypothesis is that it accounts for only the observation(s) it was designed to account for, and so non-adhocness is generally held to be necessary or important for an introduced hypothesis or modification to a theory. Attempts by Popper and several others to convincingly explicate this view, however, prove to be unsuccessful or of doubtful value, and familiar and firmer criteria for evaluating the hypotheses or modified theories so classified are characteristically available. These points are obscured largely because the received view fails to adequately separate psychology from methodology or to recognise ambiguities in the use of 'ad hoc'.

Spectral properties of the tandem Jackson network, seen as a quasi-birth-and-death process

Quasi-birth-and-death (QBD) processes with infinite “phase spaces” can exhibit unusual and interesting behavior. One of the simplest examples of such a process is the two-node tandem Jackson network, with the “phase” giving the state of the first queue and the “level” giving the state of the second queue. In this paper, we undertake an extensive analysis of the properties of this QBD. In particular, we investigate the spectral properties of Neuts’s R-matrix and show that the decay rate of the stationary distribution of the “level” process is not always equal to the convergence norm of R. In fact, we show that we can obtain any decay rate from a certain range by controlling only the transition structure at level zero, which is independent of R. We also consider the sequence of tandem queues that is constructed by restricting the waiting room of the first queue to some finite capacity, and then allowing this capacity to increase to infinity. We show that the decay rates for the finite truncations converge to a value, which is not necessarily the decay rate in the infinite waiting room case. Finally, we show that the probability that the process hits level n before level 0 given that it starts in level 1 decays at a rate which is not necessarily the same as the decay rate for the stationary distribution.