Determining the best population-level alcohol consumption model and its impact on estimates of alcohol-attributable harms.

BACKGROUND: The goals of our study are to determine the most appropriate model for alcohol consumption as an exposure for burden of disease, to analyze the effect of the chosen alcohol consumption distribution on the estimation of the alcohol Population- Attributable Fractions (PAFs), and to characterize the chosen alcohol consumption distribution by exploring if there is a global relationship within the distribution. METHODS: To identify the best model, the Log-Normal, Gamma, and Weibull prevalence distributions were examined using data from 41 surveys from Gender, Alcohol and Culture: An International Study (GENACIS) and from the European Comparative Alcohol Study. To assess the effect of these distributions on the estimated alcohol PAFs, we calculated the alcohol PAF for diabetes, breast cancer, and pancreatitis using the three above-named distributions and using the more traditional approach based on categories. The relationship between the mean and the standard deviation from the Gamma distribution was estimated using data from 851 datasets for 66 countries from GENACIS and from the STEPwise approach to Surveillance from the World Health Organization. RESULTS: The Log-Normal distribution provided a poor fit for the survey data, with Gamma and Weibull distributions providing better fits. Additionally, our analyses showed that there were no marked differences for the alcohol PAF estimates based on the Gamma or Weibull distributions compared to PAFs based on categorical alcohol consumption estimates. The standard deviation of the alcohol distribution was highly dependent on the mean, with a unit increase in alcohol consumption associated with a unit increase in the mean of 1.258 (95% CI: 1.223 to 1.293) (R2 = 0.9207) for women and 1.171 (95% CI: 1.144 to 1.197) (R2 = 0. 9474) for men. CONCLUSIONS: Although the Gamma distribution and the Weibull distribution provided similar results, the Gamma distribution is recommended to model alcohol consumption from population surveys due to its fit, flexibility, and the ease with which it can be modified. The results showed that a large degree of variance of the standard deviation of the alcohol consumption Gamma distribution was explained by the mean alcohol consumption, allowing for alcohol consumption to be modeled through a Gamma distribution using only average consumption.

Global alcohol exposure estimates by country, territory and region for 2005--a contribution to the Comparative Risk Assessment for the 2010 Global Burden of Disease Study.

AIMS: This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of life-time abstainers, former drinkers and current drinkers, adult per-capita consumption of alcohol and pattern of drinking scores, by country and Global Burden of Disease region for 2005, and to forecast these indicators for 2010. DESIGN: Statistical modelling based on survey data and routine statistics. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 241 countries and territories. MEASUREMENTS: Per-capita consumption data were obtained with the help of the World Health Organization's Global Information System on Alcohol and Health. Drinking status data were obtained from Gender, Alcohol and Culture: An International Study, the STEPwise approach to Surveillance study, the World Health Survey/Multi-Country Study and other surveys. Consumption and drinking status data were triangulated to estimate alcohol consumption across multiple categories. FINDINGS: In 2005 adult per-capita annual consumption of alcohol was 6.1 litres, with 1.7 litres stemming from unrecorded consumption; 17.1 litres of alcohol were consumed per drinker, 45.8% of all adults were life-time abstainers, 13.6% were former drinkers and 40.6% were current drinkers. Life-time abstention was most prevalent in North Africa/Middle East and South Asia. Eastern Europe and Southern sub-Saharan Africa had the most detrimental pattern of drinking scores, while drinkers in Europe (Eastern and Central) and sub-Saharan Africa (Southern and West) consumed the most alcohol. CONCLUSIONS: Just over 40% of the world's adult population consumes alcohol and the average consumption per drinker is 17.1 litres per year. However, the prevalence of abstention, level of alcohol consumption and patterns of drinking vary widely across regions of the world.

Prevalência da incontinência anal na população urbana de Pouso Alegre - Minas Gerais

Os objetivos deste estudo foram conhecer a prevalência da incontinência anal (IA) em adultos da cidade de Pouso Alegre (Minas Gerais) e verificar os fatores demográficos e clínicos preditores de sua presença. Estudo epidemiológico desenvolvido por meio de amostragem estratificada por conglomerado, tendo amostra final composta de 519 indivíduos, com idade >18 anos, em condições físicas e mentais adequadas, residentes em 341 domicílios da área urbana e sorteados aleatoriamente. As prevalências foram padronizadas por sexo e idade, resultando em 7,0% para IA, tanto geral como para homens e mulheres. No modelo final de regressão logística, número de filhos (OR=5,1; p<0,001), doença hemorroidária (OR=4,4; p<0,001) e cistocele (OR=3,0; p<0,001) estavam associados à presença de IA. O estudo permitiu conhecer a epidemiologia da IA e pode contribuir para o desenvolvimento de políticas públicas visando à prevenção primária e secundária, e ao tratamento, ainda que inicialmente em nível municipal.

ACS800-kaappimoduulien pakkaamon ulkoistaminen

Tässä insinöörityössä selvitetään ABB Oy System AC -liiketoimintayksikön pakkaamon ulkoistamiseen liittyviä ongelmia sekä mahdollisia ratkaisuja näihin ongelmiin. Koko ongelman käsittely on liian laaja projektin yhdelle insinöörityölle. Tässä työssä keskitytään ratkaisemaan ko. ulkoistamiseen liittyvät keskeisimmät ACS800-kaappimoduulien kuljetuslogistiset ongelmat. Näitä ongelmia ovat kaappimoduulien kiinnitystarve kuljetusalustaansa sekä kuljetuspaketoinnin puuttuessa kaappimoduulien suojaaminen maantiekuljetuksen ajaksi. Työssä on otettu huomioon viranomaisten maantiekuljetuksia koskevat vaatimukset. Työssä on suunniteltu uusia kiinnitysvälineitä sekä muutoksia olemassa oleviin kuljetusalustoihin, joita käytetään tehtaan sisäisissä kaappimoduulien siirroissa. Kiinnitysvälineistä on tehty lujuuslaskelmia ja määritelty kiristysmomentteja. Tuotettavuuden ja kustannustehokkuuden kannalta on selvitetty kiinnitysvälineisiin soveltuvia materiaalivaihtoehtoja. Kuljetusalustojen muutoksista on myös tehty ohjeistusta. Tämän työn tulos on uusien kiinnitysvälineiden ja kuljetusalustojen mekaanisten muutosten suunnittelu. Samalla on todistettu, että kaappimoduulien siirto tehtaan ulkopuoliseen pakkaamoon ilman kuljetuspaketointia on teoriassa mahdollista.

High incidence of childhood hemolytic uremic syndrome in Switzerland is associated with indicators of livestock farming intensity

Background: Hemolytic-uremic syndrome (HUS) is a multisystem disorder associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Typically, HUS is preceded by an episode of (bloody) diarrhea mostly due to Shiga-toxin (Stx) producing Escherichia coli (STEC). The main reservoir for STEC is the intestine of healthy ruminants, mostly cattle, and recent studies have revealed an association between indicators of livestock density and human STEC infection or HUS, respectively. Nationwide data on HUS in Switzerland have been established through the Swiss Pediatric Surveillance Unit (SPSU) [Schifferli et al. Eur J Pediatr. 2010; 169:591-8]. Aims: Analysis of age-specific incidence rate of childhood HUS and possible association of Shiga-toxin associated HUS (Stx-HUS) with indicators of livestock farming intensity. Methods: Epidemiological and ecological analysis based on the SPSU data (1997-2003) and the database of the Swiss Federal Statistical Office (data on population and agriculture). Results: One hundred-fourteen cases were registered, 88% were ≤5 years old. The overall annual incidence rate was 1.42 (0.60-1.91) and 4.23 (1.76-6.19) per 100000 children ≤5 and ≤16 years, respectively (P = 0.005). Stx-HUS was more frequent compared to cases not associated with STEC (P = 0.002). The incidence rate for Stx-HUS was 3.85 (1.76-5.65) in children ≤5, compared to 0.27 (0.00-0.54) per 100'000 children 5-16 years (P = 0.002), respectively. The incidence rate of cases not associated with STEC infection did not significantly vary with age (P = 0.107). Compared to data from Scotland, Canada, Ireland, Germany, England, Australia, Italy, and Austria the annual incidence rate of HUS in young children is highest in Switzerland. Ecological analysis revealed strong association between the incidence rate of Stx-HUS and indicators of rural occupation (agricultural labourer / population, P = 0.030), farming intensity (livestock breeding farms / population, P = 0.027) and cattle density (cattle / cultivated area, P = 0.013). Conclusions: Alike in other countries, HUS in Switzerland is mostly associated with STEC infection and affects predominantly young children. However, the incidence rate is higher compared to countries abroad and is significantly correlated with indicators of livestock farming intensity. The present data support the impact of direct and indirect contact with animals or fecal contaminants in transmission of STEC to humans.

Rules vs. political discretion: evidence from constitutionally guaranteed transfers to local governments in Brazil

Can rules be used to shield public resources from political interference? The Brazilian constitution and national tax code stipulate that revenue sharing transfers to municipal governments be determined by the size of counties in terms of estimated population. In this paper I document that the population estimates which went into the transfer allocation formula for the year 1991 were manipulated, resulting in significant transfer differentials over the entire 1990's. I test whether conditional on county characteristics that might account for the manipulation, center-local party alignment, party popularity and the extent of interparty fragmentation at the county level are correlated with estimated populations in 1991. Results suggest that revenue sharing transfers were targeted at right-wing national deputies in electorally fragmented counties as well as aligned local executives.

Obesity and overweight associated with lower rates of colorectal cancer screening in Switzerland.

Screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) is associated with reduced CRC mortality, but low screening rates have been reported in several settings. The aim of the study was to assess predictors of low CRC screening in Switzerland. A retrospective cohort of a random sample of 940 patients aged 50-80 years followed for 2 years from four Swiss University primary care settings was used. Patients with illegal residency status and a history of CRC or colorectal polyps were excluded. We abstracted sociodemographic data of patients and physicians, patient health status, and indicators derived from RAND's Quality Assessment Tools from medical charts. We defined CRC screening as colonoscopy in the last 10 years, flexible sigmoidoscopy in the last 5 years, or fecal occult blood testing in the last 2 years. We used bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Of 940 patients (mean age 63.9 years, 42.7% women), 316 (33.6%) had undergone CRC screening. In multivariate analysis, birthplace in a country outside of Western Europe and North America [odds ratio (OR) 0.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.45-0.97], male sex of the physician in charge (OR 0.67, 95% CI 0.50-0.91), BMI 25.0-29.9 kg/m (OR 0.66, CI 0.46-0.96) and at least 30.0 kg/m (OR 0.61, CI 0.40-0.90) were associated with lower CRC screening rates. Obesity, overweight, birthplace outside of Western Europe and North America, and male sex of the physician in charge were associated with lower CRC screening rates in Swiss University primary care settings. Physician perception of obesity and its impact on their recommendation for CRC screening might be a target for further research.

The value of useless information

There are many situations in which individuals have a choice of whether or notto observe eventual outcomes. In these instances, individuals often prefer to remainignorant. These contexts are outside the scope of analysis of the standard vonNeumann-Morgenstern (vNM) expected utility model, which does not distinguishbetween lotteries for which the agent sees the final outcome and those for which hedoes not. I develop a simple model that admits preferences for making an observationor for remaining in doubt. I then use this model to analyze the connectionbetween preferences of this nature and risk-attitude. This framework accommodatesa wide array of behavioral patterns that violate the vNM model, and thatmay not seem related, prima facie. For instance, it admits self-handicapping, inwhich an agent chooses to impair his own performance. It also accommodatesa status quo bias without having recourse to framing effects, or to an explicitdefinition of reference points. In a political economy context, voters have strictincentives to shield themselves from information. In settings with other-regardingpreferences, this model predicts observed behavior that seems inconsistent witheither altruism or self-interested behavior.

Mise à jour sur l'hépatite E [An update on hepatitis E].

The hepatitis E virus (HEV) is an RNA virus transmitted via the fecal-oral route or through uncooked animal meat products. Of the 4 known genotypes, genotype 3 is responsible for autochthonous infections in industrialized countries, with a seroprevalence in Switzerland estimated as high as 22%. The majority of infections is asymptomatic but a minority of patients, notably men over 50 or with underlying liver disease, can present with severe acute hepatitis. Chronic hepatitis E with HEV of genotype 3 has been observed in immunosuppressed patients, mostly transplant recipients. Serology is not sufficiently sensitive, especially in immunosuppressed patients, making PCR identification the preferred test for diagnosing active infection. Ribavirin or interferon-alpha can be used to treat chronic hepatitis E if reduction of immunosuppressive treatment does not result in viral elimination.

New record of Pterotaenia fasciata (Wiedemann) (Diptera, Ulidiidae) in Brazil, a probably mechanical vector of enteric bacteria

Pterotaenia fasciata is commonly recorded in rural areas in Argentina, but during a Diptera survey study developed in a reservoir which retains storm water from polluted canals in an urban area of Taboão da Serra municipality, SP, Brazil, we could capture P. fasciata adults. Enteric bacteria Escherichia coli T. Escherich, 1885 and Proteus sp. were isolated from P. fasciata collected in traps inside the reservoir and around it. Fecal coliforms and E. coli were found in the water of the reservoir. These records suggest that a high abundance of this species at urban areas with inadequate sewage canals should reveal these muscoid dipterans as mechanical vectors of enteric bacteria.

Estimating uncertainty of alcohol-attributable fractions for infectious and chronic diseases.

Background: Alcohol is a major risk factor for burden of disease and injuries globally. This paper presents a systematic method to compute the 95% confidence intervals of alcohol-attributable fractions (AAFs) with exposure and risk relations stemming from different sources.Methods: The computation was based on previous work done on modelling drinking prevalence using the gamma distribution and the inherent properties of this distribution. The Monte Carlo approach was applied to derive the variance for each AAF by generating random sets of all the parameters. A large number of random samples were thus created for each AAF to estimate variances. The derivation of the distributions of the different parameters is presented as well as sensitivity analyses which give an estimation of the number of samples required to determine the variance with predetermined precision, and to determine which parameter had the most impact on the variance of the AAFs.Results: The analysis of the five Asian regions showed that 150 000 samples gave a sufficiently accurate estimation of the 95% confidence intervals for each disease. The relative risk functions accounted for most of the variance in the majority of cases.Conclusions: Within reasonable computation time, the method yielded very accurate values for variances of AAFs.

Evaluation of Remediation Recommendations: Stakeholder Workshop 3 Ribeira Seca - Cape Verde

In Cape Verde, the low soil cover and inadequate practices on rain fed agricultural lands constitute major problems related to desertification. To the fragility of the land associates severe water erosion, causing tons of land to be washed away from the fields every year during the rainy season. Therefore, the aim in the scope of combating desertification is to provide a certain degree of permanent soil cover to serve as shield for the impact of rain. During the selection workshop several technologies, all related to vegetative cover either as strips or surface cover were discussed. Only two technologies were selected: vegetation strip with pigeon pea and afforestation with fruit trees.  Technology 1: Pigeon pea (cajanus cajan) barriers/strips. It consists in planting seeds of pigeon pea, a leguminous perennial shrub that has dual purpose of protecting the soil and feed people. It is planted in association with maize crop. After the maize is harvested, the soil remains with some degree of cover. Though the objective was to plant as strip barriers, six meters apart, most farmers planted it as surface cover.  Technology 2: Afforestation with fruit trees. It consists in the plantation of different fruit tree species in humid areas to provide both soil cover and feed for farmers. Since fruit trees require several years to provide effective cover, and though it was implemented in some areas, it was not evaluated during the project’s period.

Evaluation of Remediation Recommendations: Stakeholder Workshop 3 Ribeira Seca - Cape Verde

In Cape Verde, the low soil cover and inadequate practices on rain fed agricultural lands constitute major problems related to desertification. To the fragility of the land associates severe water erosion, causing tons of land to be washed away from the fields every year during the rainy season. Therefore, the aim in the scope of combating desertification is to provide a certain degree of permanent soil cover to serve as shield for the impact of rain. During the selection workshop several technologies, all related to vegetative cover either as strips or surface cover were discussed. Only two technologies were selected: vegetation strip with pigeon pea and afforestation with fruit trees.  Technology 1: Pigeon pea (cajanus cajan) barriers/strips. It consists in planting seeds of pigeon pea, a leguminous perennial shrub that has dual purpose of protecting the soil and feed people. It is planted in association with maize crop. After the maize is harvested, the soil remains with some degree of cover. Though the objective was to plant as strip barriers, six meters apart, most farmers planted it as surface cover.  Technology 2: Afforestation with fruit trees. It consists in the plantation of different fruit tree species in humid areas to provide both soil cover and feed for farmers. Since fruit trees require several years to provide effective cover, and though it was implemented in some areas, it was not evaluated during the project’s period.

The genome of the leaf-cutting ant Acromyrmex echinatior suggests key adaptations to advanced social life and fungus farming.

We present a high-quality (>100× depth) Illumina genome sequence of the leaf-cutting ant Acromyrmex echinatior, a model species for symbiosis and reproductive conflict studies. We compare this genome with three previously sequenced genomes of ants from different subfamilies and focus our analyses on aspects of the genome likely to be associated with known evolutionary changes. The first is the specialized fungal diet of A. echinatior, where we find gene loss in the ant's arginine synthesis pathway, loss of detoxification genes, and expansion of a group of peptidase proteins. One of these is a unique ant-derived contribution to the fecal fluid, which otherwise consists of "garden manuring" fungal enzymes that are unaffected by ant digestion. The second is multiple mating of queens and ejaculate competition, which may be associated with a greatly expanded nardilysin-like peptidase gene family. The third is sex determination, where we could identify only a single homolog of the feminizer gene. As other ants and the honeybee have duplications of this gene, we hypothesize that this may partly explain the frequent production of diploid male larvae in A. echinatior. The fourth is the evolution of eusociality, where we find a highly conserved ant-specific profile of neuropeptide genes that may be related to caste determination. These first analyses of the A. echinatior genome indicate that considerable genetic changes are likely to have accompanied the transition from hunter-gathering to agricultural food production 50 million years ago, and the transition from single to multiple queen mating 10 million years ago.

Estado de la contaminación marina en litoral peruano en 1994 y 1995

da a conocer el estado de la contaminación marina en el periodo comprendido entre 1994 a 1995 en diferentes áreas del litoral peruano. En el trabajo se consideraron las principales fuentes terrestres de contaminación provenientes de los desechos domésticos e industriales, plaguicidas organoclorados, hidrocarburos de petróleo y metales pesados. Así mismo se evaluaron los efectos de ellos sobre el macrobentos en las áreas estudiadas, contrastando con ensayos de corta duración de toxicidad letal y utilizando zoeas de Emerita analoga con hidrocarburos y metales pesados. Las bahías de Callao y Chimbote mostraron mayor contaminación por desechos domésticos e industriales, con deterioro de la calidad microbiológica determinándose altos niveles de contaminación fecal. En ninguna de las áreas marinas hubo presencia de Vibrio cholerae toxigénico. En lo que se refiere a los plaguicidas se detectaron 3 tipos de DDT 's en la zona del Callao. En la evaluación de los efectos de la contaminación sobre las comunidades marinas del macrozoobentos tanto de sustrato blando como rocoso de las áreas de Chimbote, Huacho, Pisco e Ilo se ha determinado que la comunidad béntica de sustrato rocoso situada al norte de bahía Ferrol, Chimbote muestra una moderada perturbación al igual que las comunidades de sustratos blandos de las bahías de Paracas e Ite.