Alternative tests for correct specification of conditional predictive densities

We propose new methods for evaluating predictive densities that focus on the models' actual predictive ability in finite samples. The tests offer a simple way of evaluatingthe correct specification of predictive densities, either parametric or non-parametric.The results indicate that our tests are well sized and have good power in detecting mis-specification in predictive densities. An empirical application to the Survey ofProfessional Forecasters and a baseline Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium modelshows the usefulness of our methodology.

A case of acute retinal pigment epithelitis: spectral domain optical coherence tomography time course and physiopathologic hypothesis.

PURPOSE: To report the time course of retinal morphologic changes in a patient with acute retinal pigment epithelitis (ARPE) using spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT). METHODS: A 30-year old man was referred for blurred vision of his right eye after five days that appeared suddenly 15 days after recovery from a flu-like syndrome. SD-OCT was performed immediately, followed by fluorescein and infracyanine angiography at eight days and then at three weeks. RESULTS: At presentation, a bubble of sub-macular deposit was observed on the right macula with central golden micronodules in a honeycomb pattern. SD-OCT showed an "anterior dislocation" of all the retinal layers up to the inner/outer segment (IS/OS) line and irregular deposits at the OS level together with thickening of the retinal pigment epithelial (RPE) layer. As visual acuity increased, eight days later, the OCT showed reduction of the sub-retinal deposits and an abnormal hyperflectivity of the sub-retinal and RPE layers was observed. The patient showed a positive serology for picornavirus. DISCUSSION: The acute SD-OCT sections of this patient with ARPE were compared with histological sections of a 35 day old Royal College of Surgeons rat. Similar findings could be observed, with preservation of the IS/OS line and accumulation of debris at the OS level, suggesting that ARPE symptoms could result from a transient phagocytic dysfunction of the RPE at the fovea, inducing reversible accumulation of undigested OS. Picornaviruses comprising enterovirus and coxsachievirus described as being associated with acute chorioretinitis. In this case, it was responsible for ARPE. CONCLUSION: We hypothesize that ARPE syndrome results from a transient dysfunction of RPE, which can occur as a post viral reaction.

Nestmate recognition and levels of aggression are not altered by changes in genetic diversity in a socially polymorphic ant

The ability to distinguish nestmates from foreign individuals is central to the functioning of insect societies. In ants, workers from multiple-queen colonies are often less aggressive than workers from single-queen ones. In line with this observation, it has been hypothesized that workers from multiple-queen colonies have less precise recognition abilities than workers from single-queen ones because their colonies contain genetically more diverse individuals, which results in a broader template of recognition cues. Here, we assessed the impact of social structure ( queen number) variation on nestmate recognition and aggression in a large population of the socially polymorphic ant Formica selysi. We staged unilateral aggression tests on the nest surface. Workers from single-and multiple-queen colonies had good nestmate recognition ability and did not differ significantly in their level of aggression towards foreign, immobilized workers ( cue-bearers). In particular, workers from multiple-queen colonies efficiently recognized non-nestmates despite the higher genetic diversity in their colony. Cue-bearers from single- and multiple-queen colonies elicited similar reactions. However, the level of aggression was higher between than within social forms, suggesting that workers detect a signal that is specific to the colony social structure. Finally, the level of aggression was not correlated with the genetic distance between colonies. Overall, we found no evidence for the hypothesis that the presence of multiple breeders in the same colony decreases recognition abilities and found no simple relationship between genetic diversity and aggression level. (c) 2007 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviou

Strategies and tools for preventing neurotoxicity: to test, to predict and how to do it

A change in paradigm is needed in the prevention of toxic effects on the nervous system, moving from its present reliance solely on data from animal testing to a prediction model mostly based on in vitro toxicity testing and in silico modeling. According to the report published by the National Research Council (NRC) of the US National Academies of Science, high-throughput in vitro tests will provide evidence for alterations in"toxicity pathways" as the best possible method of large scale toxicity prediction. The challenges to implement this proposal are enormous, and provide much room for debate. While many efforts address the technical aspects of implementing the vision, many questions around it need also to be addressed. Is the overall strategy the only one to be pursued? How can we move from current to future paradigms? Will we ever be able to reliably model for chronic and developmental neurotoxicity in vitro? This paper summarizes four presentations from a symposium held at the International Neurotoxicology Conference held in Xi"an, China, in June 2011. A. Li reviewed the current guidelines for neurotoxicity and developmental neurotoxicity testing, and discussed the major challenges existing to realize the NCR vision for toxicity testing. J. Llorens reviewed the biology of mammalian toxic avoidance in view of present knowledge on the physiology and molecular biology of the chemical senses, taste and smell. This background information supports the hypothesis that relating in vivo toxicity to chemical epitope descriptors that mimic the chemical encoding performed by the olfactory system may provide a way to the long term future of complete in silico toxicity prediction. S. Ceccatelli reviewed the implementation of rodent and human neural stem cells (NSCs) as models for in vitro toxicity testing that measures parameters such as cell proliferation, differentiation and migration. These appear to be sensitive endpoints that can identify substances with developmental neurotoxic potential. C. Sun ol reviewed the use of primary neuronal cultures in testing for neurotoxicity of environmental pollutants, including the study of the effects of persistent exposures and/or in differentiating cells, which allow recording of effects that can be extrapolated to human developmental neurotoxicity.

Testing Weak-Form Efficiency of the Chinese Stock Market

Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on tarkastella Kiinan osakemarkkinoiden tehokkuutta ja random walk -hypoteesin voimassaoloa. Tavoitteena on myös selvittää esiintyykö viikonpäiväanomalia Kiinan osakemarkkinoilla. Tutkimusaineistona käytetään Shanghain osakepörssin A-sarjan,B-sarjan ja yhdistelmä-sarjan ja Shenzhenin yhdistelmä-sarjan indeksien päivittäisiä logaritmisoituja tuottoja ajalta 21.2.1992-30.12.2005 sekä Shenzhenin osakepörssin A-sarjan ja B-sarjan indeksien päivittäisiä logaritmisoituja tuottoja ajalta 5.10.1992-30.12.2005. Tutkimusmenetelminä käytetään neljä tilastollista menetelmää, mukaan lukien autokorrelaatiotestiä, epäparametrista runs-testiä, varianssisuhdetestiä sekä Augmented Dickey-Fullerin yksikköjuuritestiä. Viikonpäiväanomalian esiintymistä tutkitaan käyttämällä pienimmän neliösumman menetelmää (OLS). Testejä tehdään sekä koko aineistolla että kolmella erillisellä ajanjaksolla. Tämän tutkielman empiiriset tulokset tukevat aikaisempia tutkimuksia Kiinan osakemarkkinoiden tehottomuudesta. Lukuun ottamatta yksikköjuuritestien saatuja tuloksia, autokorrelaatio-, runs- ja varianssisuhdetestien perusteella random walk-hypoteesi hylättiin molempien Kiinan osakemarkkinoiden kohdalla. Tutkimustulokset osoittavat, että molemmilla osakepörssillä B-sarjan indeksien käyttäytyminenon ollut huomattavasti enemmän random walk -hypoteesin vastainen kuin A-sarjan indeksit. Paitsi B-sarjan markkinat, molempien Kiinan osakemarkkinoiden tehokkuus näytti myös paranevan vuoden 2001 markkinabuumin jälkeen. Tutkimustulokset osoittavat myös viikonpäiväanomalian esiintyvän Shanghain osakepörssillä, muttei kuitenkaan Shenzhenin osakepörssillä koko tarkasteluajanjaksolla.

Empirical Tests of Asset Pricing Models in Finnish Stock Market

Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on selvittää mitkä riskitekijät vaikuttavat osakkeiden tuottoihin. Arvopapereina käytetään kuutta portfoliota, jotka ovat jaoteltu markkina-arvon mukaan. Aikaperiodi on vuoden 1987 alusta vuoden 2004 loppuun. Malleina käytetään pääomamarkkinoiden hinnoittelumallia, arbitraasihinnoitteluteoriaa sekä kulutuspohjaista pääomamarkkinoiden hinnoittelumallia. Riskifaktoreina kahteen ensimmäiseen malliin käytetään markkinariskiä sekä makrotaloudellisia riskitekijöitä. Kulutuspohjaiseen pääomamarkkinoiden hinnoinoittelumallissa keskitytään estimoimaan kuluttajien riskitottumuksia sekä diskonttaustekijää, jolla kuluttaja arvostavat tulevaisuuden kulutusta. Tämä työ esittelee momenttiteorian, jolla pystymme estimoimaan lineaarisia sekä epälineaarisia yhtälöitä. Käytämme tätä menetelmää testaamissamme malleissa. Yhteenvetona tuloksista voidaan sanoa, että markkinabeeta onedelleen tärkein riskitekijä, mutta löydämme myös tukea makrotaloudellisille riskitekijöille. Kulutuspohjainen mallimme toimii melko hyvin antaen teoreettisesti hyväksyttäviä arvoja.

Can Charisma Be Taught? Tests of Two Interventions

We tested whether we could teach individuals to behave more charismatically, andwhether changes in charisma affected leader outcomes. In Study 1, a mixed-design fieldexperiment, we randomly assigned 34 middle-level managers to a control or anexperimental group. Three months later, we reassessed the managers using theircoworker ratings (Time 1 raters = 343; Time 2 raters = 321). In Study 2, a within-subjectslaboratory experiment, we videotaped 41 MBA participants giving a speech. We thentaught them how to behave more charismatically, and they redelivered the speech6 weeks later. Independent assessors (n = 135) rated the speeches. Results from thestudies indicated that the training had significant effects on ratings of leader charisma(mean D = .62) and that charisma had significant effects on ratings of leaderprototypicality and emergence................................................................................................................................

How a haemosporidian parasite of bats gets around: the genetic structure of a parasite, vector and host compared.

Parasite population structure is often thought to be largely shaped by that of its host. In the case of a parasite with a complex life cycle, two host species, each with their own patterns of demography and migration, spread the parasite. However, the population structure of the parasite is predicted to resemble only that of the most vagile host species. In this study, we tested this prediction in the context of a vector-transmitted parasite. We sampled the haemosporidian parasite Polychromophilus melanipherus across its European range, together with its bat fly vector Nycteribia schmidlii and its host, the bent-winged bat Miniopterus schreibersii. Based on microsatellite analyses, the wingless vector, and not the bat host, was identified as the least structured population and should therefore be considered the most vagile host. Genetic distance matrices were compared for all three species based on a mitochondrial DNA fragment. Both host and vector populations followed an isolation-by-distance pattern across the Mediterranean, but not the parasite. Mantel tests found no correlation between the parasite and either the host or vector populations. We therefore found no support for our hypothesis; the parasite population structure matched neither vector nor host. Instead, we propose a model where the parasite's gene flow is represented by the added effects of host and vector dispersal patterns.

How Accurate Are Blood (or Breath) Tests for Identifying Self-Reported Heavy Drinking Among People with Alcohol Dependence?

AIMS: Managing patients with alcohol dependence includes assessment for heavy drinking, typically by asking patients. Some recommend biomarkers to detect heavy drinking but evidence of accuracy is limited. METHODS: Among people with dependence, we assessed the performance of disialo-carbohydrate-deficient transferrin (%dCDT, ≥1.7%), gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT, ≥66 U/l), either %dCDT or GGT positive, and breath alcohol (> 0) for identifying 3 self-reported heavy drinking levels: any heavy drinking (≥4 drinks/day or >7 drinks/week for women, ≥5 drinks/day or >14 drinks/week for men), recurrent (≥5 drinks/day on ≥5 days) and persistent heavy drinking (≥5 drinks/day on ≥7 consecutive days). Subjects (n = 402) with dependence and current heavy drinking were referred to primary care and assessed 6 months later with biomarkers and validated self-reported calendar method assessment of past 30-day alcohol use. RESULTS: The self-reported prevalence of any, recurrent and persistent heavy drinking was 54, 34 and 17%. Sensitivity of %dCDT for detecting any, recurrent and persistent self-reported heavy drinking was 41, 53 and 66%. Specificity was 96, 90 and 84%, respectively. %dCDT had higher sensitivity than GGT and breath test for each alcohol use level but was not adequately sensitive to detect heavy drinking (missing 34-59% of the cases). Either %dCDT or GGT positive improved sensitivity but not to satisfactory levels, and specificity decreased. Neither a breath test nor GGT was sufficiently sensitive (both tests missed 70-80% of cases). CONCLUSIONS: Although biomarkers may provide some useful information, their sensitivity is low the incremental value over self-report in clinical settings is questionable.

Divergent and narrower climatic niches characterize polyploid species of European primroses in Primula sect. Aleuritia

Aim It is hypothesized that the ecological niches of polyploids should be both distinct and broader than those of diploids - characteristics that might have allowed the successful colonization of open habitats by polyploids during the Pleistocene glacial cycles. Here, we test these hypotheses by quantifying and comparing the ecological niches and niche breadths of a group of European primroses. Location Europe. Methods We gathered georeferenced data of four related species in Primula sect. Aleuritia at different ploidy levels (diploid, tetraploid, hexaploid and octoploid) and used seven bioclimatic variables to quantify niche overlap between species by applying a series of univariate and multivariate analyses combined with modelling techniques. We also employed permutation-based tests to evaluate niche similarity between the four species. Niche breadth for each species was evaluated both in the multivariate environmental space and in geographical space. Results The four species differed significantly from each other in mono-dimensional comparisons of climatological variables and occupied distinct habitats in the multi-dimensional environmental space. The majority of the permutation-based tests either indicated that the four species differed significantly in their habitat preferences and ecological niches or did not support significant niche similarity. Furthermore, our results revealed narrower niche breadths and geographical ranges in species of P. sect. Aleuritia at higher ploidy levels. Main conclusions The detected ecological differentiation between the four species of P. sect. Aleuritia at different ploidy levels is consistent with the hypothesis that polyploids occupy distinct ecological niches that differ from those of their diploid relative. Contrary to expectations, we find that polyploid species of P. sect. Aleuritia occupy narrower environmental and geographical spaces than their diploid relative. These results on the ecological niches of closely related polyploid and diploid species highlight factors that potentially contribute to the evolution and distribution of polyploid species.

Estudio sobre evaluación de la usabilidad móvil y propuesta de un método para tests de usabilidad cuantitativos basado en técnicas de eyetracking

Este trabajo se divide en tres partes: contextualización, estado del arte en evaluación de la usabilidad en dispositivos móviles y propuesta y validación de un método que combina eyetracker de sobremesa y dispositivos móviles. El trabajo culmina con un estudio experimental con un doble propósito: realizar un primer estudio de la validez del método y analizar empíricamente cómo sacarle el máximo rendimiento tratando en todo momento de equipararlo al uso real de un dispositivo físico.