Modelling and Forecasting Property Rents and Returns (summary section only)

Recently, focus of real estate investment has expanded from the building-specific level to the aggregate portfolio level. The portfolio perspective requires investment analysis for real estate which is comparable with that of other asset classes, such as stocks and bonds. Thus, despite its distinctive features, such as heterogeneity, high unit value, illiquidity and the use of valuations to measure performance, real estate should not be considered in isolation. This means that techniques which are widely used for other assets classes can also be applied to real estate. An important part of investment strategies which support decisions on multi-asset portfolios is identifying the fundamentals of movements in property rents and returns, and predicting them on the basis of these fundamentals. The main objective of this thesis is to find the key drivers and the best methods for modelling and forecasting property rents and returns in markets which have experienced structural changes. The Finnish property market, which is a small European market with structural changes and limited property data, is used as a case study. The findings in the thesis show that is it possible to use modern econometric tools for modelling and forecasting property markets. The thesis consists of an introduction part and four essays. Essays 1 and 3 model Helsinki office rents and returns, and assess the suitability of alternative techniques for forecasting these series. Simple time series techniques are able to account for structural changes in the way markets operate, and thus provide the best forecasting tool. Theory-based econometric models, in particular error correction models, which are constrained by long-run information, are better for explaining past movements in rents and returns than for predicting their future movements. Essay 2 proceeds by examining the key drivers of rent movements for several property types in a number of Finnish property markets. The essay shows that commercial rents in local markets can be modelled using national macroeconomic variables and a panel approach. Finally, Essay 4 investigates whether forecasting models can be improved by accounting for asymmetric responses of office returns to the business cycle. The essay finds that the forecast performance of time series models can be improved by introducing asymmetries, and the improvement is sufficient to justify the extra computational time and effort associated with the application of these techniques.

A simple method for the measurement of stress in evaporated thin films by real-time holographic interferometry

The properties of thin films depend to a large extent upon their mechanical stability which in turn is dependent on the intrinsic stresses developed during evaporation. This paper describes a simple method for the measurement of stresses in thin films by the use of real-time holographic interferometry.

The phenomenon of oligarchy in Russia and its impact on Russian transition

Nowadays any analysis of Russian economy is incomplete without taking into account the phenomenon of oligarchy. Russian oligarchs appeared after the fall of the Soviet Union and are represented by wealthy businessmen who control a huge part of natural resources enterprises and have a big political influence. Oligarchs’ shares in some natural resources industries reach even 70-80%. Their role in Russian economy is big without any doubts, however there has been very little economic analysis done. The aim of this work is to examine Russian oligarchy on micro and macro levels, its role in Russia’s transition and the possible positive and negative outcomes from this phenomenon. For this purpose the work presents two theoretical models. The first part of this thesis work examines the role of oligarchs on micro level, concentrating on the question whether the oligarchs can be more productive owners than other types of owners. To answer the question this part presents a model based on the article “Are oligarchs productive? Theory and evidence” by Y. Gorodnichenko and Y. Grygorenko. It is followed by empirical test based on the works of S. Guriev and A. Rachinsky. The model predicts oligarchs to invest more in the productivity of their enterprises and have higher returns on capital, therefore be more productive owners. According to the empirical test, oligarchs were found to outperform other types of owners, however it is not defined whether the productivity gains offset losses in tax revenue. The second part of the work concentrates on the role of oligarchy on macro level. More precisely, it examines the assumption that the depression after 1998 crises in Russia was caused by the oligarchs’ behavior. This part presents a theoretical model based on the article “A macroeconomic model of Russian transition: The role of oligarchic property rights” by S. Braguinsky and R. Myerson, where the special type of property rights is introduced. After the 1998 crises oligarchs started to invest all their resources abroad to protect themselves from political risks, which resulted in the long depression phase. The macroeconomic model shows, that better protection of property rights (smaller political risk) or/and higher outside investing could reduce the depression. Taking into account this result, the government policy can change the oligarchs’ behavior to be more beneficial for the Russian economy and make the transition faster.

Comparative Evaluation of Switching and Average Models of a DC-DC Boost Converter for Real-Time Simulation

This paper presents a comparative evaluation of the average and switching models of a dc-dc boost converter from the point of view of real-time simulation. Both the models are used to simulate the converter in real-time on a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) platform. The converter is considered to function over a wide range of operating conditions, and could do transition between continuous conduction mode (CCM) and discontinuous conduction mode (DCM). While the average model is known to be computationally efficient from the perspective of off-line simulation, the same is shown here to consume more logical resources than the switching model for real-time simulation of the dc-dc converter. Further, evaluation of the boundary condition between CCM and DCM is found to be the main reason for the increased consumption of resources by the average model.

An Implementation of Partitioned Scheduling Scheme for Hard Real-Time Tasks in Multicore Linux with Fair Share for Linux Tasks

The correctness of a hard real-time system depends its ability to meet all its deadlines. Existing real-time systems use either a pure real-time scheduler or a real-time scheduler embedded as a real-time scheduling class in the scheduler of an operating system (OS). Existing implementations of schedulers in multicore systems that support real-time and non-real-time tasks, permit the execution of non-real-time tasks in all the cores with priorities lower than those of real-time tasks, but interrupts and softirqs associated with these non-real-time tasks can execute in any core with priorities higher than those of real-time tasks. As a result, the execution overhead of real-time tasks is quite large in these systems, which, in turn, affects their runtime. In order that the hard real-time tasks can be executed in such systems with minimal interference from other Linux tasks, we propose, in this paper, an integrated scheduler architecture, called SchedISA, which aims to considerably reduce the execution overhead of real-time tasks in these systems. In order to test the efficacy of the proposed scheduler, we implemented partitioned earliest deadline first (P-EDF) scheduling algorithm in SchedISA on Linux kernel, version 3.8, and conducted experiments on Intel core i7 processor with eight logical cores. We compared the execution overhead of real-time tasks in the above implementation of SchedISA with that in SCHED_DEADLINE's P-EDF implementation, which concurrently executes real-time and non-real-time tasks in Linux OS in all the cores. The experimental results show that the execution overhead of real-time tasks in the above implementation of SchedISA is considerably less than that in SCHED_DEADLINE. We believe that, with further refinement of SchedISA, the execution overhead of real-time tasks in SchedISA can be reduced to a predictable maximum, making it suitable for scheduling hard real-time tasks without affecting the CPU share of Linux tasks.

Event-triggered Sampling and Reconstruction of Sparse Real-valued Trigonometric Polynomials

We propose data acquisition from continuous-time signals belonging to the class of real-valued trigonometric polynomials using an event-triggered sampling paradigm. The sampling schemes proposed are: level crossing (LC), close to extrema LC, and extrema sampling. Analysis of robustness of these schemes to jitter, and bandpass additive gaussian noise is presented. In general these sampling schemes will result in non-uniformly spaced sample instants. We address the issue of signal reconstruction from the acquired data-set by imposing structure of sparsity on the signal model to circumvent the problem of gap and density constraints. The recovery performance is contrasted amongst the various schemes and with random sampling scheme. In the proposed approach, both sampling and reconstruction are non-linear operations, and in contrast to random sampling methodologies proposed in compressive sensing these techniques may be implemented in practice with low-power circuitry.

Integration of holographic sensors into microfluidics for the real-time pH sensing of L. casei metabolism

We describe developments in the integration of analyte specific holographic sensors into PDMS-based microfluidic devices for the purpose of continuous, low-impact monitoring of extra-cellular change in micro-bioreactors. Holographic sensors respond to analyte concentration via volume change, which makes their reduction in size and integration into spatially confined fluidics difficult. Through design and process modification many of these constraints have been addressed, and a microfluidics-based device capable of real-time monitoring of the pH change caused by Lactobacillus casei fermentation is presented as a general proof-of-concept for a wide array of possible devices.

2002-03 Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary science report: An ecosystem report card after five years of marine zoning

Executive Summary: Circulation and Exchange of Florida Bay and South Florida Coastal Waters The coastal ecosystem of South Florida is comprised of distinct marine environments. Circulation of surface waters and exchange processes, which respond to both local and regional forcings, interconnect different coastal environments. In addition, re-circulating current systems within the South Florida coastal ecosystem such as the Tortugas Gyre contribute to retention of locally spawned larvae. Variability in salinity, chlorophyll, and light transmittance occurs on a wide range of temporal and spatial scales, in response to both natural forcing, such as seasonal precipitation and evaporation and interannual “El Niño” climate signals, and anthropogenic forcing, such as water management practices in south Florida. The full time series of surface property maps are posted at www.aoml.noaa.gov/sfp. Regional surface circulation patterns, shown by satellite-tracked surface drifters, respond to large-scale forcing such as wind variability and sea level slopes. Recent patterns include slow flow from near the mouth of the Shark River to the Lower Keys, rapid flow from the Tortugas to the shelf of the Carolinas, and flow from the Tortugas around the Tortugas Gyre and out of the Florida Straits. The Southwest Florida Shelf and the Atlantic side of the Florida Keys coastal zone are directly connected by passages between the islands of the Middle and Lower Keys. Movement of water between these regions depends on a combination of local wind-forced currents and gravitydriven transports through the passages, produced by cross-Key sea level differences on time scales of several days to weeks, which arise because of differences in physical characteristics (shape, orientation, and depth) of the shelf on either side of the Keys. A southeastward mean flow transports water from western Florida Bay, which undergoes large variations in water quality, to the reef tract. Adequate sampling of oceanographic events requires both the capability of near real-time recognition of these events, and the flexibility to rapidly stage targeted field sampling. Capacity to respond to events is increasing, as demonstrated by investigations of the 2002 “blackwater” event and a 2003 entrainment of Mississippi River water to the Tortugas. (PDF contains 364 pages.)

Investigation of hypervelocity impact phenomena using real-time concurrent diagnostics

Hypervelocity impact of meteoroids and orbital debris poses a serious and growing threat to spacecraft. To study hypervelocity impact phenomena, a comprehensive ensemble of real-time concurrently operated diagnostics has been developed and implemented in the Small Particle Hypervelocity Impact Range (SPHIR) facility. This suite of simultaneously operated instrumentation provides multiple complementary measurements that facilitate the characterization of many impact phenomena in a single experiment. The investigation of hypervelocity impact phenomena described in this work focuses on normal impacts of 1.8 mm nylon 6/6 cylinder projectiles and variable thickness aluminum targets. The SPHIR facility two-stage light-gas gun is capable of routinely launching 5.5 mg nylon impactors to speeds of 5 to 7 km/s. Refinement of legacy SPHIR operation procedures and the investigation of first-stage pressure have improved the velocity performance of the facility, resulting in an increase in average impact velocity of at least 0.57 km/s. Results for the perforation area indicate the considered range of target thicknesses represent multiple regimes describing the non-monotonic scaling of target perforation with decreasing target thickness. The laser side-lighting (LSL) system has been developed to provide ultra-high-speed shadowgraph images of the impact event. This novel optical technique is demonstrated to characterize the propagation velocity and two-dimensional optical density of impact-generated debris clouds. Additionally, a debris capture system is located behind the target during every experiment to provide complementary information regarding the trajectory distribution and penetration depth of individual debris particles. The utilization of a coherent, collimated illumination source in the LSL system facilitates the simultaneous measurement of impact phenomena with near-IR and UV-vis spectrograph systems. Comparison of LSL images to concurrent IR results indicates two distinctly different phenomena. A high-speed, pressure-dependent IR-emitting cloud is observed in experiments to expand at velocities much higher than the debris and ejecta phenomena observed using the LSL system. In double-plate target configurations, this phenomena is observed to interact with the rear-wall several micro-seconds before the subsequent arrival of the debris cloud. Additionally, dimensional analysis presented by Whitham for blast waves is shown to describe the pressure-dependent radial expansion of the observed IR-emitting phenomena. Although this work focuses on a single hypervelocity impact configuration, the diagnostic capabilities and techniques described can be used with a wide variety of impactors, materials, and geometries to investigate any number of engineering and scientific problems.

A regularização fundiária e o registro de imóveis

Este trabalho tem por finalidade apresentar um estudo sobre as contribuições do serviço de registro imobiliário, com destaque em procedimentos de regularização fundiária de imóveis urbanos. Não raras vezes, empreendedores, administradores públicos, juízes, sociedade deparam-se com situações em que há a necessidade de titulação da terra como mecanismo de formalização da propriedade, oportunidade em que são exigidos os requisitos estabelecidos na legislação de regência. A adoção em caráter estrito das regras estabelecidas, em contraposição às peculiaridades e ao desregramento de assentamentos informais, importaria em eterna manutenção dos mesmos à margem da lei. Há, assim, de se criar mecanismos de consenso e soluções de compromisso, em que poder público, registrador imobiliário, operadores do direito e a própria comunidade envolvam-se no sentido de colmatar uma solução intermediária. Solução esta que, sem perder a necessária segurança jurídica dos registros públicos, possibilite a adoção de mecanismos que facilitem o acesso dos ocupantes à titulação da terra em que vivem. O título de propriedade representa mais do que mero papel. Traduz o poder de direito sobre determinado terreno, alçando-o da condição de um capital morto para elemento ativo em um mercado cada dia mais globalizado. Nesta esteira, arregimenta economicamente não apenas a população diretamente envolvida, quanto também possibilita, através da inserção dos imóveis regularizados no mercado, um aproveitamento e um incremento econômico catalisador de transformações econômico-sociais. Novos direitos, novos bens em garantia, novas condições de crédito, renovada segurança jurídica, enfim, novas oportunidades são desdobradas aos detentores, que agora podem investir sem o receio da precariedade decorrente de mera situação de posse. Estuda-se, assim, neste trabalho a importante atuação do registrador imobiliário e as vantagens decorrentes do processo de regularização fundiária, como um processo a ser estimulado e incrementado, concretizador de cidadania e efetivador dos direitos fundamentais de propriedade (art 5 CF/88) e de moradia (art. 6 da CF/88).

Consumption of fa cai Nostoc soup: A Potential for BMAA exposure from Nostoc cyanobacteria in China?

Grown in arid regions of western China the cyanobacterium Nostoc flagelliforme - called fa cai in Mandarin and fat choy in Cantonese - is wild-harvested and used to make soup consumed during New Year's celebrations. High prices, up to $125 USD/kg, led to overharvesting in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, Qinghai, and Xinjiang. Degradation of arid ecosystems, desertification, and conflicts between Nostoc harvesters and Mongol herdsman concerned the Chinese environmental authorities, leading to a government ban of Nostoc commerce. This ban stimulated increased marketing of a substitute made from starch. We analysed samples purchased throughout China as well as in Chinese markets in the United States and the United Kingdom. Some were counterfeits consisting of dyed starch noodles. A few samples from California contained Nostoc flagelliforme but were adulterated with starch noodles. Other samples, including those from the United Kingdom, consisted of pure Nostoc flagelliforme. A recent survey of markets in Cheng Du showed no real Nostoc flagelliforme to be marketed. Real and artificial fa cai differ in the presence of beta-N-methylamino-L-alanine (BMAA). Given its status as a high-priced luxury food, the government ban on collection and marketing, and the replacement of real fa cai with starch substitutes consumed only on special occasions, it is anticipated that dietary exposure to BMAA from fa cai will be reduced in the future in China.

Real-time data processing of interferential imaging spectrometer based on FPGA

Based on the data processing technologies of interferential spectrometer, a sort of real-time data processing system on chip of interferential imaging spectrometer was studied based on large capacitance and high speed field programmable gate array( FPGA) device. The system integrates both interferograrn sampling and spectrum rebuilding on a single chip of FPGA and makes them being accomplished in real-time with advantages such as small cubage, fast speed and high reliability. It establishes a good technical foundation in the applications of imaging spectrometer on target detection and recognition in real-time.

Elastic Scattering of He-6 + p at 82.3 MeV/nucleon

Differential cross sections for the elastic scattering of halo nucleus He-6 on proton target were measured at 82.3 MeV/u. The experimental results are well reproduced by optical model calculations using global potential KD02 with a reduction of the depth of real volume part by a factor of 0.7. A systematic analysis shows that this behavior might be related to the weakly bound property of unstable nuclei.

Quantitative structure-property relationship research to the analysis of photoionization sensitivity of organic compounds in gas chromatography

The A(m) index and molecular connectivity index were used for studying the photoionization sensitivity of some organic compounds in gas chromatography. The analysis of structure-property relationship between the photoionization sensitivity of the compounds and the A(m) indices or molecular connectivity indices has been carried out. The genetic algorighm was used to build the correlation model in this field. The results demonstrate that the property of compounds can be described by both A(m) indices and molecular connectivity indices, and the mathematical model obtained by the genetic algorithm was better than that by multivariate regression analysis.

Recognition of Surface Reflectance Properties from a Single Image under Unknown Real-World Illumination

This paper describes a machine vision system that classifies reflectance properties of surfaces such as metal, plastic, or paper, under unknown real-world illumination. We demonstrate performance of our algorithm for surfaces of arbitrary geometry. Reflectance estimation under arbitrary omnidirectional illumination proves highly underconstrained. Our reflectance estimation algorithm succeeds by learning relationships between surface reflectance and certain statistics computed from an observed image, which depend on statistical regularities in the spatial structure of real-world illumination. Although the algorithm assumes known geometry, its statistical nature makes it robust to inaccurate geometry estimates.