Will this time be different for Greece? How to assess its ability to deliver on the reform agenda. CEPS Commentary, 13 March 2015

Taking its inspiration from the ongoing debate on whether this time will be different for Greece and whether Syriza will deliver on its reform promises to the European partners, this Commentary expresses bemusement that the public debate on such an important issue as well as internal discussions among senior policy-makers frequently resort to ‘gut feelings’ or simple stereotypes. To counteract this tendency, the author presents a simple analytical framework that can be used to assess the likelihood that a government will deliver on its reform agenda. Its purpose is not to allow for a precise probabilistic calculation, but to enable better structuring of the knowledge we have. It emphasises that the change depends NOT only on the capacity of the state to design and deliver policies, but even more crucially on state autonomy from both illegitimate and legitimate interests and cognitive models used by policy-makers to make sense of the world.

Visual word recognition:The first half second

We used magnetoencephalography (MEG) to map the spatiotemporal evolution of cortical activity for visual word recognition. We show that for five-letter words, activity in the left hemisphere (LH) fusiform gyrus expands systematically in both the posterior-anterior and medial-lateral directions over the course of the first 500 ms after stimulus presentation. Contrary to what would be expected from cognitive models and hemodynamic studies, the component of this activity that spatially coincides with the visual word form area (VWFA) is not active until around 200 ms post-stimulus, and critically, this activity is preceded by and co-active with activity in parts of the inferior frontal gyrus (IFG, BA44/6). The spread of activity in the VWFA for words does not appear in isolation but is co-active in parallel with spread of activity in anterior middle temporal gyrus (aMTG, BA 21 and 38), posterior middle temporal gyrus (pMTG, BA37/39), and IFG. © 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Varieties of acquired phonological dyslexia

The existence of different varieties of the acquired reading disorder termed "phonological dyslexia" is demonstrated in this thesis. The data are interpreted in terms of an information-processing model of normal reading which postulates autonomous routes for pronouncing lexical and non-lexical items and identifies a number of separable sub-processes within both lexical and non-lexical routes. A case study approach is used and case reports on ten patients who have particular difficulty in processing non-lexical stimuli following cerebral insult are presented, Chapters 1 and 2 describe the theoretical background to the investigation. Cognitive models of reading are examined in Chapter 1 and the theoretical status of the current taxonomy of the acquired dyslexias discussed in relation to the models. In Chapter 2 the symptoms associated with phonological dyslexia are discussed both in terms of the theoretical models and in terms of the cosistency with which they are reported to occur in clinical studies. Published cases of phonological dyslexia are reviewed. Chapter 3 describes the tests administered and the analysis of error responses. The majority of tests require reading aloud of single lexical or non-lexical items and investigate the effect of different variables on reading performance. Chapter 4 contains the case reports. The final chapter summarises the different patterns of reading behaviour observed. The theoretical model predicts the selective impairment of subsystems within the phonological route. The data provide evidence of such selective impairment. It is concluded that there are different varieties of phonological dyslexia corresponding to the different loci of impairment within the phonological route. It is also concluded that the data support the hypothesis that there are two lexical routes. A further subdivision of phonological dyslexia is made on the basis of selective impairment of the direct or lexical-semantic routes.

Multilingualism and conceptual modelling

One of the leading motivations behind the multilingual semantic web is to make resources accessible digitally in an online global multilingual context. Consequently, it is fundamental for knowledge bases to find a way to manage multilingualism and thus be equipped with those procedures for its conceptual modelling. In this context, the goal of this paper is to discuss how common-sense knowledge and cultural knowledge are modelled in a multilingual framework. More particularly, multilingualism and conceptual modelling are dealt with from the perspective of FunGramKB, a lexico-conceptual knowledge base for natural language understanding. This project argues for a clear division between the lexical and the conceptual dimensions of knowledge. Moreover, the conceptual layer is organized into three modules, which result from a strong commitment towards capturing semantic knowledge (Ontology), procedural knowledge (Cognicon) and episodic knowledge (Onomasticon). Cultural mismatches are discussed and formally represented at the three conceptual levels of FunGramKB.

Navegação de um robô móvel baseado em um modelo de consciência artificial

This work presents a study about a the Baars-Franklin architecture, which defines a model of computational consciousness, and use it in a mobile robot navigation task. The insertion of mobile robots in dynamic environments carries a high complexity in navigation tasks, in order to deal with the constant environment changes, it is essential that the robot can adapt to this dynamism. The approach utilized in this work is to make the execution of these tasks closer to how human beings react to the same conditions by means of a model of computational consci-ousness. The LIDA architecture (Learning Intelligent Distribution Agent) is a cognitive system that seeks tomodel some of the human cognitive aspects, from low-level perceptions to decision making, as well as attention mechanism and episodic memory. In the present work, a computa-tional implementation of the LIDA architecture was evaluated by means of a case study, aiming to evaluate the capabilities of a cognitive approach to navigation of a mobile robot in dynamic and unknown environments, using experiments both with virtual environments (simulation) and a real robot in a realistic environment. This study concluded that it is possible to obtain benefits by using conscious cognitive models in mobile robot navigation tasks, presenting the positive and negative aspects of this approach.

DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF THE ANTERIOR CRUCIATE LIGAMENT INJURY-RISK-ESTIMATION QUIZ (ACL-IQ)

Over 2 million Anterior Cruciate Ligament (ACL) injuries occur annually worldwide resulting in considerable economic and health burdens (e.g., suffering, surgery, loss of function, risk for re-injury, and osteoarthritis). Current screening methods are effective but they generally rely on expensive and time-consuming biomechanical movement analysis, and thus are impractical solutions. In this dissertation, I report on a series of studies that begins to investigate one potentially efficient alternative to biomechanical screening, namely skilled observational risk assessment (e.g., having experts estimate risk based on observations of athletes movements). Specifically, in Study 1 I discovered that ACL injury risk can be accurately and reliably estimated with nearly instantaneous visual inspection when observed by skilled and knowledgeable professionals. Modern psychometric optimization techniques were then used to develop a robust and efficient 5-item test of ACL injury risk prediction skill—i.e., the ACL Injury-Risk-Estimation Quiz or ACL-IQ. Study 2 cross-validated the results from Study 1 in a larger representative sample of both skilled (Exercise Science/Sports Medicine) and un-skilled (General Population) groups. In accord with research on human expertise, quantitative structural and process modeling of risk estimation indicated that superior performance was largely mediated by specific strategies and skills (e.g., ignoring irrelevant information), independent of domain general cognitive abilities (e.g., metal rotation, general decision skill). These cognitive models suggest that ACL-IQ is a trainable skill, providing a foundation for future research and applications in training, decision support, and ultimately clinical screening investigations. Overall, I present the first evidence that observational ACL injury risk prediction is possible including a robust technology for fast, accurate and reliable measurement—i.e., the ACL-IQ. Discussion focuses on applications and outreach including a web platform that was developed to house the test, provide a repository for further data collection, and increase public and professional awareness and outreach (www.ACL-IQ.org). Future directions and general applications of the skilled movement analysis approach are also discussed.

Propuesta de un análisis metafórico-poético en una novela de ciencia ficción: 2001, una odisea del espacio

The aim of this doctoral thesis is to analyse both the text (production) and the set of cognition processes which facilitate the understanding of a masterpiece of Science Fiction: 2001, A Space Odyssey from a new perspective. Unlike other literary theories, texts in cognitive poetics (i.e. Structuralism, Generative Linguistics, Literary Criticism) are projected on the readerś minds by means of cognitive procedures. Cognitive poetics uses tools of cognitive science in order to understand literature (and in this particular case, Science Fiction). This has lead to a great change in our understanding of texts, literary and otherwise. This literary analysis was carried out on the Science Fiction genre based on the assumptions of cognitive poetics. Due to the peculiar kind of subjects touched upon by this genre, it has been theorised that the type of metaphor used for both its creation and style are rather different from other genres. Science Fiction coincides with other genres of writing in that it contains its own specific ways of providing language with a meaning while making it so innovative that many literary theories point out that it is written differently or that it is necessary to possess single reading codes in order to be fully understood. The methodology used for this thesis required a metaphorical basic and poetic conceptual analysis according to the poetical metaphor theory developed by Lakoff and Turner (1989). The aim of this metaphorical study is to analyse the basic and conceptual structure of 2001, A Space Odyssey by A. C. Clarke. The parameters of literary conceptualization of Science Fiction established by Peter Stockwell in his Poetics of Science Fiction (2000) were also applied in order to analyse this novel. The ICMs (Idealised Cognitive Models) were then examined to determine the presence of isomorphism related to the production level...

Identificación de las relaciones reales y posibles entre la administración basada en modelos, la ciencia computacional de la organización y la ingeniería emergente en el contexto de la gestión organizacional

Las teorías administrativas se han basado, casi sin excepción, en los fundamentos y los modelos de la ciencia clásica (particularmente, en los modelos de la física newtoniana). Sin embargo, las organizaciones actualmente se enfrentan a un mundo globalizado, plagado de información (y no necesariamente conocimiento), hiperconectado, dinámico y cargado de incertidumbre, por lo que muchas de las teorías pueden mostrar limitaciones para las organizaciones. Y quizá no por la estructura, la lógica o el alcance de las mismas, sino por la falta de criterios que justifiquen su aplicación. En muchos casos, las organizaciones siguen utilizando la intuición, las suposiciones y las verdades a medias en la toma de decisiones. Este panorama pone de manifiesto dos hechos: de un lado, la necesidad de buscar un método que permita comprender las situaciones de cada organización para apoyar la toma de decisiones. De otro lado, la necesidad de potenciar la intuición con modelos y técnicas no tradicionales (usualmente provenientes o inspiradas por la ingeniería). Este trabajo busca anticipar los pilares de un posible método que permita apoyar la toma de decisiones por medio de la simulación de modelos computacionales, utilizando las posibles interacciones entre: la administración basada en modelos, la ciencia computacional de la organización y la ingeniería emergente.

Application of cognitive diagnosis models to competency-based situational judgment tests

Resumen tomado de la publicaci??n

Information and mechanical models of intelligence: What can we learn from cognitive science?

The impact of new advanced technology on issues that concern meaningful information and its relation to studies of intelligence constitutes the main topic of the present paper. The advantages, disadvantages and implications of the synthetic methodology developed by cognitive scientists, according to which mechanical models of the mind, such as computer simulations or self-organizing robots, may provide good explanatory tools to investigate cognition, are discussed. A difficulty with this methodology is pointed out, namely the use of meaningless information to explain intelligent behavior that incorporates meaningful information. In this context, it is inquired what are the contributions of cognitive science to contemporary studies of intelligent behavior and how technology may play a role in the analysis of the relationships established by organisms in their natural and social environments. © John Benjamins Publishing Company.

Models for the study of neuronal activity during cognitive tasks

Assessment of brain connectivity among different brain areas during cognitive or motor tasks is a crucial problem in neuroscience today. Aim of this research study is to use neural mass models to assess the effect of various connectivity patterns in cortical EEG power spectral density (PSD), and investigate the possibility to derive connectivity circuits from EEG data. To this end, two different models have been built. In the first model an individual region of interest (ROI) has been built as the parallel arrangement of three populations, each one exhibiting a unimodal spectrum, at low, medium or high frequency. Connectivity among ROIs includes three parameters, which specify the strength of connection in the different frequency bands. Subsequent studies demonstrated that a single population can exhibit many different simultaneous rhythms, provided that some of these come from external sources (for instance, from remote regions). For this reason in the second model an individual ROI is simulated only with a single population. Both models have been validated by comparing the simulated power spectral density with that computed in some cortical regions during cognitive and motor tasks. Another research study is focused on multisensory integration of tactile and visual stimuli in the representation of the near space around the body (peripersonal space). This work describes an original neural network to simulate representation of the peripersonal space around the hands, in basal conditions and after training with a tool used to reach the far space. The model is composed of three areas for each hand, two unimodal areas (visual and tactile) connected to a third bimodal area (visual-tactile), which is activated only when a stimulus falls within the peripersonal space. Results show that the peripersonal space, which includes just a small visual space around the hand in normal conditions, becomes elongated in the direction of the tool after training, thanks to a reinforcement of synapses.