Ergodic crossover in partially self-avoiding stochastic walks

Consider a one-dimensional environment with N randomly distributed sites. An agent explores this random medium moving deterministically with a spatial memory μ. A crossover from local to global exploration occurs in one dimension at a well-defined memory value μ1=log2N. In its stochastic version, the dynamics is ruled by the memory and by temperature T, which affects the hopping displacement. This dynamics also shows a crossover in one dimension, obtained computationally, between exploration schemes, characterized yet by the trajectory size (Np) (aging effect). In this paper we provide an analytical approach considering the modified stochastic version where the parameter T plays the role of a maximum hopping distance. This modification allows us to obtain a general analytical expression for the crossover, as a function of the parameters μ, T, and Np. Differently from what has been proposed by previous studies, we find that the crossover occurs in any dimension d. These results have been validated by numerical experiments and may be of great value for fixing optimal parameters in search algorithms. © 2013 American Physical Society.

Network-based stochastic semisupervised learning

Semisupervised learning is a machine learning approach that is able to employ both labeled and unlabeled samples in the training process. In this paper, we propose a semisupervised data classification model based on a combined random-preferential walk of particles in a network (graph) constructed from the input dataset. The particles of the same class cooperate among themselves, while the particles of different classes compete with each other to propagate class labels to the whole network. A rigorous model definition is provided via a nonlinear stochastic dynamical system and a mathematical analysis of its behavior is carried out. A numerical validation presented in this paper confirms the theoretical predictions. An interesting feature brought by the competitive-cooperative mechanism is that the proposed model can achieve good classification rates while exhibiting low computational complexity order in comparison to other network-based semisupervised algorithms. Computer simulations conducted on synthetic and real-world datasets reveal the effectiveness of the model.

Cash balance management: A comparison between genetic algorithms and particle swarm optimization

This work aimed to apply genetic algorithms (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) in cash balance management using Miller-Orr model, which consists in a stochastic model that does not define a single ideal point for cash balance, but an oscillation range between a lower bound, an ideal balance and an upper bound. Thus, this paper proposes the application of GA and PSO to minimize the Total Cost of cash maintenance, obtaining the parameter of the lower bound of the Miller-Orr model, using for this the assumptions presented in literature. Computational experiments were applied in the development and validation of the models. The results indicated that both the GA and PSO are applicable in determining the cash level from the lower limit, with best results of PSO model, which had not yet been applied in this type of problem.

Probabilistic approaches in civil engineering: generation of random fields and structural identification with genetic algorithms

The inherent stochastic character of most of the physical quantities involved in engineering models has led to an always increasing interest for probabilistic analysis. Many approaches to stochastic analysis have been proposed. However, it is widely acknowledged that the only universal method available to solve accurately any kind of stochastic mechanics problem is Monte Carlo Simulation. One of the key parts in the implementation of this technique is the accurate and efficient generation of samples of the random processes and fields involved in the problem at hand. In the present thesis an original method for the simulation of homogeneous, multi-dimensional, multi-variate, non-Gaussian random fields is proposed. The algorithm has proved to be very accurate in matching both the target spectrum and the marginal probability. The computational efficiency and robustness are very good too, even when dealing with strongly non-Gaussian distributions. What is more, the resulting samples posses all the relevant, welldefined and desired properties of “translation fields”, including crossing rates and distributions of extremes. The topic of the second part of the thesis lies in the field of non-destructive parametric structural identification. Its objective is to evaluate the mechanical characteristics of constituent bars in existing truss structures, using static loads and strain measurements. In the cases of missing data and of damages that interest only a small portion of the bar, Genetic Algorithm have proved to be an effective tool to solve the problem.

Hybrid Methods for Resource Allocation and Scheduling Problems in Deterministic and Stochastic Environments

This work presents exact, hybrid algorithms for mixed resource Allocation and Scheduling problems; in general terms, those consist into assigning over time finite capacity resources to a set of precedence connected activities. The proposed methods have broad applicability, but are mainly motivated by applications in the field of Embedded System Design. In particular, high-performance embedded computing recently witnessed the shift from single CPU platforms with application-specific accelerators to programmable Multi Processor Systems-on-Chip (MPSoCs). Those allow higher flexibility, real time performance and low energy consumption, but the programmer must be able to effectively exploit the platform parallelism. This raises interest in the development of algorithmic techniques to be embedded in CAD tools; in particular, given a specific application and platform, the objective if to perform optimal allocation of hardware resources and to compute an execution schedule. On this regard, since embedded systems tend to run the same set of applications for their entire lifetime, off-line, exact optimization approaches are particularly appealing. Quite surprisingly, the use of exact algorithms has not been well investigated so far; this is in part motivated by the complexity of integrated allocation and scheduling, setting tough challenges for ``pure'' combinatorial methods. The use of hybrid CP/OR approaches presents the opportunity to exploit mutual advantages of different methods, while compensating for their weaknesses. In this work, we consider in first instance an Allocation and Scheduling problem over the Cell BE processor by Sony, IBM and Toshiba; we propose three different solution methods, leveraging decomposition, cut generation and heuristic guided search. Next, we face Allocation and Scheduling of so-called Conditional Task Graphs, explicitly accounting for branches with outcome not known at design time; we extend the CP scheduling framework to effectively deal with the introduced stochastic elements. Finally, we address Allocation and Scheduling with uncertain, bounded execution times, via conflict based tree search; we introduce a simple and flexible time model to take into account duration variability and provide an efficient conflict detection method. The proposed approaches achieve good results on practical size problem, thus demonstrating the use of exact approaches for system design is feasible. Furthermore, the developed techniques bring significant contributions to combinatorial optimization methods.

Hybrid stochastic simulations of intracellular reaction-diffusion systems.

With the observation that stochasticity is important in biological systems, chemical kinetics have begun to receive wider interest. While the use of Monte Carlo discrete event simulations most accurately capture the variability of molecular species, they become computationally costly for complex reaction-diffusion systems with large populations of molecules. On the other hand, continuous time models are computationally efficient but they fail to capture any variability in the molecular species. In this study a hybrid stochastic approach is introduced for simulating reaction-diffusion systems. We developed an adaptive partitioning strategy in which processes with high frequency are simulated with deterministic rate-based equations, and those with low frequency using the exact stochastic algorithm of Gillespie. Therefore the stochastic behavior of cellular pathways is preserved while being able to apply it to large populations of molecules. We describe our method and demonstrate its accuracy and efficiency compared with the Gillespie algorithm for two different systems. First, a model of intracellular viral kinetics with two steady states and second, a compartmental model of the postsynaptic spine head for studying the dynamics of Ca+2 and NMDA receptors.

Stochastic simulation of rare events

Stochastic simulation is an important and practical technique for computing probabilities of rare events, like the payoff probability of a financial option, the probability that a queue exceeds a certain level or the probability of ruin of the insurer's risk process. Rare events occur so infrequently, that they cannot be reasonably recorded during a standard simulation procedure: specifc simulation algorithms which thwart the rarity of the event to simulate are required. An important algorithm in this context is based on changing the sampling distribution and it is called importance sampling. Optimal Monte Carlo algorithms for computing rare event probabilities are either logarithmic eficient or possess bounded relative error.

Isotone Recursive Methods for Overlapping Generation Models with Stochastic Nonclassical Production

Based on an order-theoretic approach, we derive sufficient conditions for the existence, characterization, and computation of Markovian equilibrium decision processes and stationary Markov equilibrium on minimal state spaces for a large class of stochastic overlapping generations models. In contrast to all previous work, we consider reduced-form stochastic production technologies that allow for a broad set of equilibrium distortions such as public policy distortions, social security, monetary equilibrium, and production nonconvexities. Our order-based methods are constructive, and we provide monotone iterative algorithms for computing extremal stationary Markov equilibrium decision processes and equilibrium invariant distributions, while avoiding many of the problems associated with the existence of indeterminacies that have been well-documented in previous work. We provide important results for existence of Markov equilibria for the case where capital income is not increasing in the aggregate stock. Finally, we conclude with examples common in macroeconomics such as models with fiat money and social security. We also show how some of our results extend to settings with unbounded state spaces.

A simple genetic algorithm for calibration of stochastic rock discontinuity networks

Este artículo propone un método para llevar a cabo la calibración de las familias de discontinuidades en macizos rocosos. We present a novel approach for calibration of stochastic discontinuity network parameters based on genetic algorithms (GAs). To validate the approach, examples of application of the method to cases with known parameters of the original Poisson discontinuity network are presented. Parameters of the model are encoded as chromosomes using a binary representation, and such chromosomes evolve as successive generations of a randomly generated initial population, subjected to GA operations of selection, crossover and mutation. Such back-calculated parameters are employed to make assessments about the inference capabilities of the model using different objective functions with different probabilities of crossover and mutation. Results show that the predictive capabilities of GAs significantly depend on the type of objective function considered; and they also show that the calibration capabilities of the genetic algorithm can be acceptable for practical engineering applications, since in most cases they can be expected to provide parameter estimates with relatively small errors for those parameters of the network (such as intensity and mean size of discontinuities) that have the strongest influence on many engineering applications.

Response threshold models and stochastic learning automata for self-coordination of heterogeneous multi-task distribution in multi-robot systems.

This paper focuses on the general problem of coordinating multiple robots. More specifically, it addresses the self-selection of heterogeneous specialized tasks by autonomous robots. In this paper we focus on a specifically distributed or decentralized approach as we are particularly interested in a decentralized solution where the robots themselves autonomously and in an individual manner, are responsible for selecting a particular task so that all the existing tasks are optimally distributed and executed. In this regard, we have established an experimental scenario to solve the corresponding multi-task distribution problem and we propose a solution using two different approaches by applying Response Threshold Models as well as Learning Automata-based probabilistic algorithms. We have evaluated the robustness of the algorithms, perturbing the number of pending loads to simulate the robot’s error in estimating the real number of pending tasks and also the dynamic generation of loads through time. The paper ends with a critical discussion of experimental results.

Orthogonal MCMC algorithms

Monte Carlo (MC) methods are widely used in signal processing, machine learning and stochastic optimization. A well-known class of MC methods are Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. In this work, we introduce a novel parallel interacting MCMC scheme, where the parallel chains share information using another MCMC technique working on the entire population of current states. These parallel ?vertical? chains are led by random-walk proposals, whereas the ?horizontal? MCMC uses a independent proposal, which can be easily adapted by making use of all the generated samples. Numerical results show the advantages of the proposed sampling scheme in terms of mean absolute error, as well as robustness w.r.t. to initial values and parameter choice.

A stochastic approximation algorithm with Markov chain Monte-Carlo method for incomplete data estimation problems

We propose a general procedure for solving incomplete data estimation problems. The procedure can be used to find the maximum likelihood estimate or to solve estimating equations in difficult cases such as estimation with the censored or truncated regression model, the nonlinear structural measurement error model, and the random effects model. The procedure is based on the general principle of stochastic approximation and the Markov chain Monte-Carlo method. Applying the theory on adaptive algorithms, we derive conditions under which the proposed procedure converges. Simulation studies also indicate that the proposed procedure consistently converges to the maximum likelihood estimate for the structural measurement error logistic regression model.

A genetic estimation algorithm for parameters of stochastic ordinary differential equations

A generic method for the estimation of parameters for Stochastic Ordinary Differential Equations (SODEs) is introduced and developed. This algorithm, called the GePERs method, utilises a genetic optimisation algorithm to minimise a stochastic objective function based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic. Numerical simulations are utilised to form the KS statistic. Further, the examination of some of the factors that improve the precision of the estimates is conducted. This method is used to estimate parameters of diffusion equations and jump-diffusion equations. It is also applied to the problem of model selection for the Queensland electricity market. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Noisy fitness evaluation in genetic algorithms and the dynamics of learning

A theoretical model is presented which describes selection in a genetic algorithm (GA) under a stochastic fitness measure and correctly accounts for finite population effects. Although this model describes a number of selection schemes, we only consider Boltzmann selection in detail here as results for this form of selection are particularly transparent when fitness is corrupted by additive Gaussian noise. Finite population effects are shown to be of fundamental importance in this case, as the noise has no effect in the infinite population limit. In the limit of weak selection we show how the effects of any Gaussian noise can be removed by increasing the population size appropriately. The theory is tested on two closely related problems: the one-max problem corrupted by Gaussian noise and generalization in a perceptron with binary weights. The averaged dynamics can be accurately modelled for both problems using a formalism which describes the dynamics of the GA using methods from statistical mechanics. The second problem is a simple example of a learning problem and by considering this problem we show how the accurate characterization of noise in the fitness evaluation may be relevant in machine learning. The training error (negative fitness) is the number of misclassified training examples in a batch and can be considered as a noisy version of the generalization error if an independent batch is used for each evaluation. The noise is due to the finite batch size and in the limit of large problem size and weak selection we show how the effect of this noise can be removed by increasing the population size. This allows the optimal batch size to be determined, which minimizes computation time as well as the total number of training examples required.

Approximate Bayesian techniques for inference in stochastic dynamical systems

This thesis is concerned with approximate inference in dynamical systems, from a variational Bayesian perspective. When modelling real world dynamical systems, stochastic differential equations appear as a natural choice, mainly because of their ability to model the noise of the system by adding a variant of some stochastic process to the deterministic dynamics. Hence, inference in such processes has drawn much attention. Here two new extended frameworks are derived and presented that are based on basis function expansions and local polynomial approximations of a recently proposed variational Bayesian algorithm. It is shown that the new extensions converge to the original variational algorithm and can be used for state estimation (smoothing). However, the main focus is on estimating the (hyper-) parameters of these systems (i.e. drift parameters and diffusion coefficients). The new methods are numerically validated on a range of different systems which vary in dimensionality and non-linearity. These are the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, for which the exact likelihood can be computed analytically, the univariate and highly non-linear, stochastic double well and the multivariate chaotic stochastic Lorenz '63 (3-dimensional model). The algorithms are also applied to the 40 dimensional stochastic Lorenz '96 system. In this investigation these new approaches are compared with a variety of other well known methods such as the ensemble Kalman filter / smoother, a hybrid Monte Carlo sampler, the dual unscented Kalman filter (for jointly estimating the systems states and model parameters) and full weak-constraint 4D-Var. Empirical analysis of their asymptotic behaviour as a function of observation density or length of time window increases is provided.