Bayesian predictive modeling and comparison of oil samples

Statistical comparison of oil samples is an integral part of oil spill identification, which deals with the process of linking an oil spill with its source of origin. In current practice, a frequentist hypothesis test is often used to evaluate evidence in support of a match between a spill and a source sample. As frequentist tests are only able to evaluate evidence against a hypothesis but not in support of it, we argue that this leads to unsound statistical reasoning. Moreover, currently only verbal conclusions on a very coarse scale can be made about the match between two samples, whereas a finer quantitative assessment would often be preferred. To address these issues, we propose a Bayesian predictive approach for evaluating the similarity between the chemical compositions of two oil samples. We derive the underlying statistical model from some basic assumptions on modeling assays in analytical chemistry, and to further facilitate and improve numerical evaluations, we develop analytical expressions for the key elements of Bayesian inference for this model. The approach is illustrated with both simulated and real data and is shown to have appealing properties in comparison with both standard frequentist and Bayesian approaches

A low-level geographic information system for coastal zone management with applications to Brunei Darussalam: Part III:: simulation and tracking oil spills

B:RUN is a low-level GIS software designed to help formulate options for the management of the coastal zone of Brunei Darussalam. This contribution presents the oil spill simulation module of B:RUN. This simple module, based largely on wind and sea surface current vector parameters, may be helpful in formulating relevant oil spill contingency plans. It can be easily adapted to other areas, as can the B:RUN software itself.

Effect of Urucu oil (Brazilian Amazon) on the biomass of the aquatic macrophyte Eichhornia crassipes (Mart.) Solms (Pontederiaceae)

Os rios e lagos de várzea da província petrolífera de Urucu, na Amazônia Central, são amplamente colonizados por macrófitas aquáticas, que podem ser afetadas por acidentes durante a exploração e o transporte de petróleo. Entre as macrófitas, a espécie flutuante Eichhornia crassipes (aguapé) ocorre abundantemente na região; OBJETIVO: O objetivo desse estudo foi verificar o efeito de diferentes dosagens do petróleo de Urucu (0; 0,5; 1,5 e 3,0 L.m-2) na biomassa viva e morta de E. crassipes e em algumas características físicas e químicas da água; MÉTODOS: O experimento teve oitenta e quatro dias de duração. A cada sete dias foi determinada a biomassa (viva e morta) de E. crassipes e os valores de temperatura, pH, condutividade elétrica e oxigênio dissolvido da água; RESULTADOS: A dosagem de 0,5 L.m-2 foi suficiente para causar mortalidade parcial (48%) em E. crassipes após trinta e cinco dias de exposição ao petróleo. A dosagem de 3,0 L.m-2 causou mortalidade total (100%) em E. crassipes em oitenta e quatro dias de exposição. A decomposição do petróleo e da biomassa morta de E. crassipes provocam a redução do oxigênio dissolvido e do pH, e aumento da condutividade elétrica e de fósforo total na água; CONCLUSÕES: Nós concluímos que um derramamento de petróleo pode provocar mortalidade total em uma população de uma espécie de macrófita, mas não em uma outra. Isto pode alterar a diversidade de espécies de macrófitas na região impactada. No caso de Eichhornia crassipes e Pistia stratiotes, um derramamento de petróleo de Urucu pode favorecer E. crassipes, a espécie menos sensível ao petróleo.

Integrated assessment for establishing an oil environmental vulnerability map: Case study for the Santos Basin region, Brazil

The growth of maritime transport and oil exploitation activities may increase the risk of oil spills. Thus, plans and actions to prevent or mitigate impacts are needed to minimize the effects caused by oil. However, tools used worldwide to support contingency plans have not been integrated, thus leading to failure in establishing priority areas. This investigation aimed to develop indices of environmental vulnerability to oil (IEVO), by combining information about environmental sensibility to oil and results of numerical modeling of spilled oil. To achieve that, a case study concerning to oil spills scenarios in a subtropical coastal area was designed, and IEVOs were calculated and presented in maps, in order to make the information about the areas' vulnerability more easily visualized. For summer, the extension of coastline potentially affected by oil was approximately 150. km, and most of the coastline presented medium to high vulnerability. For winter, 230. km coastline would be affected, from which 75% were classified as medium to high vulnerability. Thus, IEVO maps allowed a rapid and clearer interpretation of the vulnerability of the mapped region, facilitating the planning process and the actions in response to an oil spill. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

The other Gulf oil crisis - in Southwest Asia

The oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is a rude reminder of the risks inherent in an economy dependent upon petroleum. But there's a quieter crisis in the other gulf - the Persian Gulf - that should call Americans' attention to the even more severe consequences of relying upon imported oil. The costs of using the military to protect the transport of oil from the most turbulent part of the world should convince our country's policymakers to increase investments in researching and developing affordable, American-made clean-burning alternative fuels. But, first, we have to understand the real causes, costs and consequences of importing 12.9 million barrels of oil per day, which make up nearly 60 percent of U.S. oil consumption at a total direct cost of roughly $300 billion per year.

Long-term effects of oil pollution in mangrove forests (Baixada Santista, Southeast Brazil) detected using a GIS-based multitemporal analysis of aerial photographs

Oil spills are potential threats to the integrity of highly productive coastal wetlands, such as mangrove forests. In October 1983, a mangrove area of nearly 300 ha located on the southeastern coast of Brazil was impacted by a 3.5 million liter crude oil spill released by a broken pipeline. In order to assess the long-term effects of oil pollution on mangrove vegetation, we carried out a GIS-based multitemporal analysis of aerial photographs of the years 1962, 1994, 2000 and 2003. Photointerpretation, visual classification, class quantification, ground-truth and vegetation structure data were combined to evaluate the oil impact. Before the spill, the mangroves exhibited a homogeneous canopy and well-developed stands. More than ten years after the spill, the mangrove vegetation exhibited three distinct zones reflecting the long-term effects of the oil pollution. The most impacted zone (10.5 ha) presented dead trees, exposed substrate and recovering stands with reduced structural development. We suggest that the distinct impact and recovery zones reflect the spatial variability of oil removal rates in the mangrove forest. This study identifies the multitemporal analysis of aerial photographs as a useful tool for assessing a system's capacity for recovery and monitoring the long-term residual effects of pollutants on vegetation dynamics, thus giving support to mangrove forest management and conservation.

The Selection Exerted by Oil Contamination on Mangrove Fungal Communities

Mangrove ecosystems are tropical environments that are characterized by the interaction between the land and the sea. As such, this ecosystem is vulnerable to oil spills. Here, we show a culture-independent survey of fungal communities that are found in the sediments of the following two mangroves that are located on the coast of Sao Paulo State (Brazil): (1) an oil-spill-affected mangrove and (2) a nearby unaffected mangrove. Samples were collected from each mangrove forest at three distinct locations (transect from sea to land), and the samples were analyzed by quantitative PCR and internal transcribed spacer (ITS)-based PCR-DGGE analysis. The abundance of fungi was found to be higher in the oil-affected mangrove. Visual observation and correspondence analysis (CA) of the ITS-based PCR-DGGE profiles revealed differences in the fungal communities between the sampled areas. Remarkably, the oil-spilled area was quite distinct from the unaffected sampling areas. On the basis of the ITS sequences, fungi that are associated with the Basidiomycota and Ascomycota taxa were most common and belonged primarily to the genera Epicoccum, Nigrospora, and Cladosporium. Moreover, the Nigrospora fungal species were shown to be sensitive to oil, whereas a group that was described as "uncultured Basidiomycota" was found more frequently in oil-contaminated areas. Our results showed an increase in fungal abundance in the oil-polluted mangrove regions, and these data indicated potential fungal candidates for remediation of the oil-affected mangroves.

Long-term effects of oil pollution in mangrove forests (Baixada Santista, Southeast Brazil) detected using a GIS-based multitemporal analysis of aerial photographs

Oil spills are potential threats to the integrity of highly productive coastal wetlands, such as mangrove forests. In October 1983, a mangrove area of nearly 300 ha located on the southeastern coast of Brazil was impacted by a 3.5 million liter crude oil spill released by a broken pipeline. In order to assess the long-term effects of oil pollution on mangrove vegetation, we carried out a GIS-based multitemporal analysis of aerial photographs of the years 1962, 1994, 2000 and 2003. Photointerpretation, visual classification, class quantification, ground-truth and vegetation structure data were combined to evaluate the oil impact. Before the spill, the mangroves exhibited a homogeneous canopy and well-developed stands. More than ten years after the spill, the mangrove vegetation exhibited three distinct zones reflecting the long-term effects of the oil pollution. The most impacted zone (10.5 ha) presented dead trees, exposed substrate and recovering stands with reduced structural development. We suggest that the distinct impact and recovery zones reflect the spatial variability of oil removal rates in the mangrove forest. This study identifies the multitemporal analysis of aerial photographs as a useful tool for assessing a system's capacity for recovery and monitoring the long-term residual effects of pollutants on vegetation dynamics, thus giving support to mangrove forest management and conservation.

Independent Monitoring the Cuban Economic Zone Oil Development

The extensive impact and consequences of the 2010 Deep Water Horizon oil drilling rig failure in the Gulf of Mexico, together with expanding drilling activities in the Cuban Exclusive Economic zone, have cast a spotlight on Cuban oil development. The threat of a drilling rig failure has evolved from being only hypothetical to a potential reality with the commencement of active drilling in Cuban waters. The disastrous consequences of a drilling rig failure in Cuban waters will spread over a number of vital interests of the US and of nations in the Caribbean in the general environs of Cuba. The US fishing and tourist industries will take major blows from a significant oil spill in Cuban waters. Substantial ecological damage and damage to beaches could occur for the US, Mexico, Haiti and other countries as well. The need exists for the US to have the ability to independently monitor the reality of Cuban oceanic oil development. The advantages of having an independent US early warning system providing essential real-time data on the possible failure of a drilling rig in Cuban waters are numerous. An ideal early warning system would timely inform the US that an event has occurred or is likely to occur in, essentially, real-time. Presently operating monitoring systems that could provide early warning information are satellite-based. Such systems can indicate the locations of both drilling rigs and operational drilling platforms. The system discussed/proposed in this paper relies upon low-frequency underwater sound. The proposed system can complement existing monitoring systems, which offer ocean-surface information, by providing sub-ocean surface, near-real time, information. This “integrated system” utilizes and combines (integrates) many different forms of information, some gathered through sub-ocean surface systems, and some through electromagnetic-based remote sensing (satellites, aircraft, unmanned arial vehicles), and other methods as well. Although the proposed integrated system is in the developmental stage, it is based upon well-established technologies.

Identifying the major spilled oil constituents and fate in harsh offshore environments

The behaviour and fate of spilled oil in harsh marine environments, such as the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean are complex due to environmental factors and the composition of the crude. In order to develop appropriate oil spill prevention and management methods, we must first understand how the oil behaves in these harsh environmental conditions. This study focuses on determining the fate of oil in harsh marine environments by first identifying target compounds in the oil that can be used to determine the fate of a spill. This thesis presents the partitioning behaviour of six polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), which represent different groups, and phenols in cold conditions. The smallest PAH, naphthalene, dominated in terms of concentration in water accommodated fraction (WAF) of oil, while the larger ringed PAHs presented at lower concentrations. The smallest oil-water partition coefficient was recorded by phenol which partitioned into the seawater more quickly than PAHs. The partitioning of larger PAHs was slower and they indicated high partition coefficients. The oil partitioning increased slightly as temperature increased from 4ᴼC to 15ᴼC. The oil loading (0.1 g/L to 10 g/L) also contributed in deciding the concentrations in water. The use of chemical dispersants is a common response to spills. This study identified that chemical dispersants can change the fate of an oil spill by increasing the availability of oil in seawater. The concentration of larger PAHs such as pyrene and chrysene increased significantly with the application of dispersants. The information obtained are used in developing a molecular imprinted polymer (MIP) sensor to identify oil spills in the North Atlantic Ocean.

Environmental Impacts of the Deep-Water Oil and Gas Industry : A Review to Guide Management Strategies

The authors would like to thank the leadership of the Deep Ocean Stewardship Initiative (DOSI), including Lisa Levin, Maria Baker, and Kristina Gjerde, for their support in developing this review. This work evolved from a meeting of the DOSI Oil and Gas working group supported by the J.M. Kaplan Fund, and associated with the Deep-Sea Biology Symposium in Aveiro, Portugal in September 2015. The members of the Oil and Gas working group that contributed to our discussions at that meeting or through the listserve are acknowledged for their contributions to this work. We would also like to thank the three reviewers and the editor who provided valuable comments and insight into the work presented here. DJ and AD were supported by funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the MERCES (Marine Ecosystem Restoration in Changing European Seas) project, grant agreement No 689518. AB was supported by CNPq grants 301412/2013-8 and 200504/2015-0. LH acknowledges funding provided by a Natural Environment Research Council grant (NE/L008181/1). This output reflects only the authors' views and the funders cannot be held responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.

Advanced Aerogel Composites for Oil Remediation and Recovery

Oil spills in marine environments often damage marine and coastal life if not remediated rapidly and efficiently. In spite of the strict enforcement of environmental legislations (i.e., Oil Pollution Act 1990) following the Exxon Valdez oil spill (June 1989; the second biggest oil spill in U.S. history), the Macondo well blowout disaster (April 2010) released 18 times more oil. Strikingly, the response methods used to contain and capture spilled oil after both accidents were nearly identical, note that more than two decades separate Exxon Valdez (1989) and Macondo well (2010) accidents.

The goal of this dissertation was to investigate new advanced materials (mechanically strong aerogel composite blankets-Cabot® Thermal Wrap™ (TW) and Aspen Aerogels® Spaceloft® (SL)), and their applications for oil capture and recovery to overcome the current material limitations in oil spill response methods. First, uptake of different solvents and oils were studied to answer the following question: do these blanket aerogel composites have competitive oil uptake compared to state-of-the-art oil sorbents (i.e., polyurethane foam-PUF)? In addition to their competitive mechanical strength (766, 380, 92 kPa for Spaceloft, Thermal Wrap, and PUF, respectively), our results showed that aerogel composites have three critical advantages over PUF: rapid (3-5 min.) and high (more than two times of PUF’s uptake) oil uptake, reusability (over 10 cycles), and oil recoverability (up to 60%) via mechanical extraction. Chemical-specific sorption experiments showed that the dominant uptake mechanism of aerogels is adsorption to the internal surface, with some contribution of absorption into the pore space.

Second, we investigated the potential environmental impacts (energy and chemical burdens) associated with manufacturing, use, and disposal of SL aerogel and PUF to remove the oil (i.e., 1 m3 oil) from a location (i.e., Macondo well). Different use (single and multiple use) and end of life (landfill, incinerator, and waste-to-energy) scenarios were assessed, and our results demonstrated that multiple use, and waste-to-energy choices minimize the energy and material use of SL aerogel. Nevertheless, using SL once and disposing via landfill still offers environmental and cost savings benefits relative to PUF, and so these benefits are preserved irrespective of the oil-spill-response operator choices.

To inform future aerogel manufacture, we investigated the different laboratory-scale aerogel fabrication technologies (rapid supercritical extraction (RSCE), CO2 supercritical extraction (CSCE), alcohol supercritical extraction (ASCE)). Our results from anticipatory LCA for laboratory-scaled aerogel fabrication demonstrated that RSCE method offers lower cumulative energy and ecotoxicity impacts compared to conventional aerogel fabrication methods (CSCE and ASCE).

The final objective of this study was to investigate different surface coating techniques to enhance oil recovery by modifying the existing aerogel surface chemistries to develop chemically responsive materials (switchable hydrophobicity in response to a CO2 stimulus). Our results showed that studied surface coating methods (drop casting, dip coating, and physical vapor deposition) were partially successful to modify surface with CO2 switchable chemical (tributylpentanamidine), likely because of the heterogeneous fiber structure of the aerogel blankets. A possible solution to these non-uniform coatings would be to include switchable chemical as a precursor during the gel preparation to chemically attach the switchable chemical to the pores of the aerogel.

Taken as a whole, the implications of this work are that mechanical deployment and recovery of aerogel composite blankets is a viable oil spill response strategy that can be deployed today. This will ultimately enable better oil uptake without the uptake of water, potential reuse of the collected oil, reduced material and energy burdens compared to competitive sorbents (e.g., PUF), and reduced occupational exposure to oiled sorbents. In addition, sorbent blankets and booms could be deployed in coastal and open-ocean settings, respectively, which was previously impossible.

Effect of Urucu oil (Brazilian Amazon) on the biomass of the aquatic macrophyte Eichhornia crassipes (Mart.) Solms (Pontederiaceae)

Os rios e lagos de várzea da província petrolífera de Urucu, na Amazônia Central, são amplamente colonizados por macrófitas aquáticas, que podem ser afetadas por acidentes durante a exploração e o transporte de petróleo. Entre as macrófitas, a espécie flutuante Eichhornia crassipes (aguapé) ocorre abundantemente na região; OBJETIVO: O objetivo desse estudo foi verificar o efeito de diferentes dosagens do petróleo de Urucu (0; 0,5; 1,5 e 3,0 L.m-2) na biomassa viva e morta de E. crassipes e em algumas características físicas e químicas da água; MÉTODOS: O experimento teve oitenta e quatro dias de duração. A cada sete dias foi determinada a biomassa (viva e morta) de E. crassipes e os valores de temperatura, pH, condutividade elétrica e oxigênio dissolvido da água; RESULTADOS: A dosagem de 0,5 L.m-2 foi suficiente para causar mortalidade parcial (48%) em E. crassipes após trinta e cinco dias de exposição ao petróleo. A dosagem de 3,0 L.m-2 causou mortalidade total (100%) em E. crassipes em oitenta e quatro dias de exposição. A decomposição do petróleo e da biomassa morta de E. crassipes provocam a redução do oxigênio dissolvido e do pH, e aumento da condutividade elétrica e de fósforo total na água; CONCLUSÕES: Nós concluímos que um derramamento de petróleo pode provocar mortalidade total em uma população de uma espécie de macrófita, mas não em uma outra. Isto pode alterar a diversidade de espécies de macrófitas na região impactada. No caso de Eichhornia crassipes e Pistia stratiotes, um derramamento de petróleo de Urucu pode favorecer E. crassipes, a espécie menos sensível ao petróleo.

Superhydrophobic and superoleophilic micro-wrinkled reduced graphene oxide as a highly portable and recyclable oil sorbent.

The potential of superhydrophobic and superoleophilic microwrinkled reduced graphene oxide (MWrGO) structures is here demonstrated for oil spill cleanup. The impact of the thickness of MWrGO films on the sorption performance of three different oils was investigated. Water contact angles across the MWrGO surfaces were found to exceed 150°, while oil could be easily absorbed by the microwrinkled structures of MWrGO within seconds after contact. Although the oil surface diffusion rate was not found to be dependent on the thickness of the graphene oxide films, the oil sorption capacity was the largest with the thinner MWrGO films due to the high surface area resulting from their fine surface texture. Furthermore, the composite films can be repeatedly used for at least 20 oil sorption-removal cycles without any notable loss in selectivity and uptake capacity. These MWrGO/elastomer composite films could be applied as a potential candidate material for future oil spill cleanup.