The determinants of business performance of estate agency in England and Wales

Purpose: This paper seeks to investigate the factors influencing the business performance of estate agency in England and Wales. Design/methodology/approach: The paper investigates the effect of housing market, company size and pricing policy on business performance in the estate agency sector in England and Wales. The analysis uses the survey data of Woolwich Cost of Moving Survey (a survey of transactions costs sponsored by the Woolwich/Barclays Bank) from 2003 to 2005 to test the hypothesis that the business performance of estate agency is affected by industry characteristics and firm factors. Findings: The empirical analysis indicates that the business performance of estate agency is subject to market environment volatility such as market uncertainty, housing market liquidity and house price changes. The firm factors such as firm size and the level of agency fee have no explanatory power in explaining business performance. The level of agency fee is positively associated with firm size, market environment and liquidity. Research limitations/implications: The research is limited to the data received and is based on a research project on transaction costs designed prior to this analysis. Originality/value: There is little other research that investigates the factors determining the business performance of estate agency, using consecutive data of three years across England and Wales. The findings are useful for practitioners and/or managers to allocate resources and adjust their business strategy to enhance business performance in the estate agency sector.

The adaptations of a quality of life questionnaire for routine use in clinical practice: the Chronic Respiratory Disease Questionnaire in Cystic Fibrosis.

The assessment of quality of life (QOL) is necessary to monitor the course of disease and to assess the effect of new and existing interventions in clinical practice. This will only be achieved if QOL can be measured accurately and routinely. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the methodology involved in the adaptation and shortening of the Chronic Respiratory Disease Questionnaire (CRDQ) in a population of adults with cystic fibrosis (CF). A single interviewer administered the CRDQ to a sample of 45 adult patients (32 males) with CF prior to assessment of spirometric measures of lung function. Those patients whose lung function was stable at the time of study, and who could attend for a retest within 14 days, were asked to complete the questionnaire at a subsequent visit (n=10). The average interval between visits was 7 days (range 5-14 days). Correlations between spirometry and CRDQ dimensions ranged from -0.003 to 0.426. The fatigue, emotion and mastery dimensions showed high internal consistency, and adequate construct validity. In the small number of patients suitable for retest, the results indicated that the dimensions exhibited adequate test retest reliability. In contrast low internal consistency was demonstrated for the dyspnoea dimension. The fatigue, emotion and mastery dimensions could be reduced, in terms of their number of items without a substantial loss in explanatory power. This study suggests that QOL measurement can be made convenient, and so more easily accessible for routine clinical assessment.

Heterogeneity, convergence, and autocorrelations

This paper is a contribution to the literature on the explanatory power and calibration of heterogeneous asset pricing models. We set out a new stochastic market-fraction asset pricing model of fundamentalists and trend followers under a market maker. Our model explains key features of financial market behaviour such as market dominance, convergence to the fundamental price and under- and over-reaction. We use the dynamics of the underlying deterministic system to characterize these features and statistical properties, including convergence of the limiting distribution and autocorrelation structure. We confirm these properties using Monte Carlo simulations.

Willingness to Pay for Rural Landscape Improvements: Combining Mixed Logit and Random-Effects Models

This paper reports the findings from a discrete-choice experiment designed to estimate the economic benefits associated with rural landscape improvements in Ireland. Using a mixed logit model, the panel nature of the dataset is exploited to retrieve willingness-to-pay values for every individual in the sample. This departs from customary approaches in which the willingness-to-pay estimates are normally expressed as measures of central tendency of an a priori distribution. Random-effects models for panel data are subsequently used to identify the determinants of the individual-specific willingness-to-pay estimates. In comparison with the standard methods used to incorporate individual-specific variables into the analysis of discrete-choice experiments, the analytical approach outlined in this paper is shown to add considerable explanatory power to the welfare estimates.

International order flows: Explaining equity and exchange rate returns

Macroeconomic models of equity and exchange rate returns perform poorly at high frequencies. The proportion of daily returns that these models explain is essentially zero. Instead of relying on macroeconomic determinants, we model equity price and exchange rate behavior based on a concept from microstructure – order flow. The international order flows are derived from belief changes of different investor groups in a two-country setting. We obtain a structural relationship between equity returns, exchange rate returns and their relationship to home and foreign equity market order flow. To test the model we construct daily aggregate order flow data from 800 million equity trades in the U.S. and France from 1999 to 2003. Almost 60% of the daily returns in the S&P100 index are explained jointly by exchange rate returns and aggregate order flows in both markets. As predicted by the model, daily exchange rate returns and order flow into the French market have significant incremental explanatory power for the daily S&P returns. The model implications are also validated for intraday returns.

Predicting intentions to purchase organic food: The role of affective and moral attitudes in the Theory of Planned Behaviour

This study examined the usefulness of integrating measures of affective and moral attitudes into the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB)-model in predicting purchase intentions or organic foods. Moral attitude was operationalised Lis positive self-rewarding feelings of doing the right thing. Questionnaire data were gathered in three countries: Italy (N = 202), Finland (N = 270) and UK (N = 200) in March 2004. Questions focussed on intentions to purchase organic apples and organic ready-to-cook pizza instead of their conventional alternatives. Data were analysed using Structural Equation Modelling by simultaneous multi-group analysis of the three Countries. Along with attitudes, moral attitude and subjective norms explained considerable shares of variances in intentions. The relative influences of these variables varied between the Countries, such that in the UK and Italy moral attitude rather than subjective norms had stronger explanatory power. In Finland it was other way around. Inclusion of moral attitude improved the model fit and predictive ability of the model, although only marginally in Finland. Thus the results partially Support the usefulness of incorporating moral measures as well as affective items for attitude into the framework of TPB. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

'Ontological insecurity' and 'terror management' Linking two free-floating anxieties

In this article, we seek to clarify and develop the concept of ontological insecurity by linking it to the better developed, empirical literature on 'terror management theory' in social psychology. We argue that the understanding of both ontological insecurity and terror management can be improved through this overdue integration. In particular, merging these literatures can have important explanatory power when it comes to understanding punitive attitudes. The considerable body of empirical evidence that has been gathered to validate the proposition behind terror management theory can be understood as providing indirect support for the concept of ontological insecurity on an individual level. On the other hand, the macrosociological research on ontological insecurity provides the largely decontextualized, laboratory-based literature on terror management with a well-developed understanding of why 'terror management' has become increasingly important in late modern society.

Understanding material deprivation: A comparative European analysis

In this paper, taking advantage of the inclusion of a special module on material deprivation in EU-SILC 2009. we provide a comparative analysis of patterns of deprivation. Our analysis identifies six relatively distinct dimensions of deprivation with generally satisfactory overall levels of reliability and mean levels of reliability across countries. Multi-level analysis based on 28 European countries reveals systematic variation in the importance of within and between country variation for a range of deprivation dimensions. The basic deprivation dimension is the sole dimension to display a graduated pattern of variation across countries. It also reveals the highest correlations with national and household income, the remaining deprivation dimensions and economic stress. It comes closest to capturing an underlying dimension of generalized deprivation that can provide the basis for a comparative European analysis of exclusion from customary standards of living. A multilevel analysis revealed that a range of household characteristics and household reference person socio-economic factors were related to basic deprivation and controlling for contextual differences in such factors allowed us to account for substantial proportions of both within and between country variance. The addition of macro-economic factors relating to average levels of disposable income and income inequality contributed relatively little further in the way of explanatory power. Further analysis revealed the existence of a set of significant interactions between micro socioeconomic attributes and country level gross national disposable income per capita. The impact of socio-economic differentiation was significantly greater where average income levels were lower. Or, in other words, the impact of the latter was greater for more disadvantaged socio-economic groups. Our analysis supports the suggestion that an emphasis on the primary role of income inequality to the neglect of differences in absolute levels of income may be misleading in important respects. (C) 2012 International Sociological Association Research Committee 28 on Social Stratification and Mobility. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of contribution of changes in classic risk factors to trends in coronary-event rates across the WHO MONICA Project populations

Background. From the mid-1980s to mid-1990s, the WHO MONICA Project monitored coronary events and classic risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) in 38 populations from 21 countries. We assessed the extent to which changes in these risk factors explain the variation in the trends in coronary-event rates, across the populations. Methods. In men and women aged 35-64 years, non-fatal myocardial infarction and coronary deaths were registered continuously to assess trends in rates of coronary events. We carried out population surveys to estimate trends in risk factors. Trends in event rates were regressed on trends in risk score and in individual risk factors. Findings. Smoking rates decreased in most male populations but trends were mixed in women; mean blood pressures and cholesterol concentrations decreased, body-mass index increased, and overall risk scores and coronary-event rates decreased. The model of trends in 10-year coronary-event rates against risk scores and single risk factors showed a poor fit, but this was improved with a 4-year time lag for coronary events. The explanatory power of the analyses was limited by imprecision of the estimates and homogeneity of trends in the study populations. Interpretation. Changes in the classic risk factors seem to partly explain the variation in population trends in CHD. Residual variance is attributable to difficulties in measurement and analysis, including time lag, and to factors that were not included, such as medical interventions. The results support prevention policies based on the classic risk factors but suggest potential for prevention beyond these.

Seasonal patterns of body temperature daily rhythms in group-living cape ground squirrels Xerus inauris

Organisms respond to cyclical environmental conditions by entraining their endogenous biological rhythms. Such physiological responses are expected to be substantial for species inhabiting arid environments which incur large variations in daily and seasonal ambient temperature (T). We measured core body temperature (T) daily rhythms of Cape ground squirrels Xerus inauris inhabiting an area of Kalahari grassland for six months from the Austral winter through to the summer. Squirrels inhabited two different areas: an exposed flood plain and a nearby wooded, shady area, and occurred in different social group sizes, defined by the number of individuals that shared a sleeping burrow. Of a suite of environmental variables measured, maximal daily T provided the greatest explanatory power for mean T whereas sunrise had greatest power for T acrophase. There were significant changes in mean T and T acrophase over time with mean T increasing and T acrophase becoming earlier as the season progressed. Squirrels also emerged from their burrows earlier and returned to them later over the measurement period. Greater increases in T, sometimes in excess of 5°C, were noted during the first hour post emergence, after which T remained relatively constant. This is consistent with observations that squirrels entered their burrows during the day to 'offload' heat. In addition, greater T amplitude values were noted in individuals inhabiting the flood plain compared with the woodland suggesting that squirrels dealt with increased environmental variability by attempting to reduce their T-T gradient. Finally, there were significant effects of age and group size on T with a lower and less variable T in younger individuals and those from larger group sizes. These data indicate that Cape ground squirrels have a labile T which is sensitive to a number of abiotic and biotic factors and which enables them to be active in a harsh and variable environment.

Functional identity and diversity of animals predict ecosystem functioning better than species-based indices

Drastic biodiversity declines have raised concerns about the deterioration of ecosystem functions and have motivated much recent research on the relationship between species diversity and ecosystem functioning. A functional trait framework has been proposed to improve the mechanistic understanding of this relationship, but this has rarely been tested for organisms other than plants. We analysed eight datasets, including five animal groups, to examine how well a trait-based approach, compared with a more traditional taxonomic approach, predicts seven ecosystem functions below- and above-ground. Trait-based indices consistently provided greater explanatory power than species richness or abundance. The frequency distributions of single or multiple traits in the community were the best predictors of ecosystem functioning. This implies that the ecosystem functions we investigated were underpinned by the combination of trait identities (i.e. single-trait indices) and trait complementarity (i.e. multi-trait indices) in the communities. Our study provides new insights into the general mechanisms that link biodiversity to ecosystem functioning in natural animal communities and suggests that the observed responses were due to the identity and dominance patterns of the trait composition rather than the number or abundance of species per se.

Identifying the relative importance of stock characteristics

There is no consensus in the literature as to which stock characteristic best explains returns. In this study, we employ a novel econometric approach better suited than the traditional characteristic sorting method to answer this question for the UK market. We evaluate the relative explanatory power of market, size, momentum, volatility, liquidity and book-to-market factors in a semiparametric characteristic-based factor model which does not require constructing characteristic portfolios. We find that momentum is the most important factor and liquidity is the least important based on their relative contribution to the fit of the model and the proportion of sample months for which factor returns are significant. Overall, this study provides strong evidence to support that the momentum characteristic can best explain stock returns in the UK market. The econometric approach employed in this study is a novel way to assess relevant investment risk in international financial markets outside U.S. Moreover, multinational institutions and investors can use this approach to identify regional factors in order to diversify their portfolios.

The Adaptiveness in Stock Markets: Testing the Stylized Facts in the DAX 30

By testing a simple asset pricing model of heterogeneous agents to characterize the power-law behavior of the DAX 30 from 1975 to 2007, we provide supporting evidence on empirical findings that investors and fund managers use combinations of fixed and switching strategies based on fundamental and technical analysis when making investment decisions. By conducting econometric analysis via Monte Carlo simulations, we show that the autocorrelation patterns, the estimates of the power-law decay indices, (FI)GARCH parameters, and tail index of the model match closely the corresponding estimates for the DAX 30. A mechanism analysis based on the calibrated model provides further insights into the explanatory power of heterogeneous agent models.

Novos dilemas, velhas soluções? - patronagem e governos partidários

A patronagem tem sido considerada uma importante dimensão do modelo de governos partidários. Contudo, a concepção convencional da utilização da patronagem remete para a distribuição de cargos na administração pública a ocorrer para efeitos de recompensa por serviços prestados ao partido no governo, ou como mecanismo de compensação relativamente à incapacidade do partido no governo de converter as preferências em políticas públicas. Esta perspectiva não é inteiramente satisfatória. A crescente complexificação e fragmentação dos processos de governação, juntamente com o poder das estruturas administrativas no processo de políticas públicas parece impelir os governos partidários a procurarem novas formas de controlar a máquina administrativa do Estado. Através do controlo político da administração, os partidos no governo procuram obter uma máquina administrativa responsiva e accountable, o que pode ter consequências para a prossecução dos objectivos de controlo de políticas públicas dos partidos no governo. Deste modo, a patronagem – definida como a distribuição de cargos na cúpula dirigente da administração pública e semi-pública – pode converter-se num recurso chave para os partidos ao nível do controlo do processo de políticas públicas, permitindo-lhes assegurar um papel na governação democrática moderna. Este estudo permite confirmar, em primeiro lugar, a incapacidade de, durante o período democrático, institucionalizar mecanismos legais que possam promover a profissionalização da administração pública. Tal decorre da acentuada tendência para a revisão do enquadramento legal, que acompanha a alternância partidária no governo, sem contudo, permitir configurar um quadro legal capaz de restringir a discricionariedade política formal sobre a máquina administrativa do Estado. Em segundo lugar Portugal surge, no contexto dos 19 países europeus analisados, entre os países com maior amplitude na discricionariedade política formal. Tal como os seus congéneres do Sul da Europa, Portugal tem sido considerado como um país onde a patronagem pode penetrar os níveis hierárquicos mais baixos, motivada por questões de recompensa partidária. Esta narrativa negligencia, contudo, as consideráveis diferenças que existem entre níveis hierárquico, ignorando as diferentes motivações para a patronagem. Além disso, a perspectiva de políticos, dirigentes e outros observadores, sugere que a utilização efectiva dos mecanismos de controlo ex ante é limitada em Portugal, quando comparado com outras democracias europeias, apontando para o limitado poder explicativo da legislação em relação ao recurso à patronagem. Esta investigação pretende, assim, reanalisar a narrativa relativa à influência partidária e ao papel da patronagem para os governos partidários em Portugal. Desta forma, o estudo da importância da patronagem para os governos partidários foi baseado na análise dos padrões de patronagem em Portugal, através da análise empírica de 10482 nomeações para a cúpula da estrutura dirigente. Esta análise quantitativa foi complementada por entrevistas a 51 dirigentes, ministros e observadores privilegiados, que especificam a operacionalização da patronagem e as estratégias utilizadas pelos partidos políticos. A análise destas duas fontes permitiu confirmar, em primeiro lugar, a existência de influências partidárias nas nomeações para a cúpula dirigente. Em segundo lugar, este estudo permite confirmar a coexistência das duas motivações da patronagem. Com efeito, a lógica das nomeações enquanto recompensa pode subsistir, ao mesmo tempo que tende a emergir um valor instrumental das nomeações, com estas a serem utilizadas (também) para reforçar o controlo político e reduzir os riscos associados ao processo de delegação. Contudo, as diferentes motivações da patronagem podem variar consoante o nível hierárquico e a fase do ciclo governativo. Enquanto instrumento de poder, a patronagem pode ser identificada nos níveis hierárquicos mais elevados. Pelo contrário, as motivações de recompensa emergem nas posições hierárquicas mais baixas, menos sujeitas ao controlo dos partidos da oposição e dos eleitores. A patronagem de poder tende, ainda, a ser mais saliente nas etapas iniciais dos mandatos governativos, com as motivações de recompensa a poderem ser identificadas no final dos mandatos. Em terceiro lugar, os resultados sugerem que a utilização da patronagem depende da competição partidária, com a acção fiscalizadora dos partidos da oposição a poder limitar as nomeações para cargos na cúpula da estrutura administrativa sem, contudo, poder impedir as nomeações para os níveis hierárquicos menos visíveis (estruturas intermédias, serviços periféricos e gabinetes ministeriais). Em quarto lugar, a politização estrutural emerge como uma estratégia que permite aos governos partidários contornarem a indiferença da administração pública face a novas prioridades políticas, ao mesmo tempo que parece emergir como um instrumento que permite legitimar as opções políticas dos governos partidários ou adiar decisões nas áreas sectoriais menos importantes para os governos partidários. De uma forma geral, os governos partidários parecem recorrer a velhos instrumentos como a patronagem, com uma solução para os novos dilemas que se colocam ao controlo partidário do processo de políticas públicas.

Estilos parentais, dificuldades de leitura e psicopatologia infantil

Tese de doutoramento, Psicologia (Psicologia Clínica), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Psicologia, 2015