Exploring social representations of adapting to climate change using topic modeling and Bayesian networks

When something unfamiliar emerges or when something familiar does something unexpected people need to make sense of what is emerging or going on in order to act. Social representations theory suggests how individuals and society make sense of the unfamiliar and hence how the resultant social representations (SRs) cognitively, emotionally, and actively orient people and enable communication. SRs are social constructions that emerge through individual and collective engagement with media and with everyday conversations among people. Recent developments in text analysis techniques, and in particular topic modeling, provide a potentially powerful analytical method to examine the structure and content of SRs using large samples of narrative or text. In this paper I describe the methods and results of applying topic modeling to 660 micronarratives collected from Australian academics / researchers, government employees, and members of the public in 2010-2011. The narrative fragments focused on adaptation to climate change (CC) and hence provide an example of Australian society making sense of an emerging and conflict ridden phenomena. The results of the topic modeling reflect elements of SRs of adaptation to CC that are consistent with findings in the literature as well as being reasonably robust predictors of classes of action in response to CC. Bayesian Network (BN) modeling was used to identify relationships among the topics (SR elements) and in particular to identify relationships among topics, sentiment, and action. Finally the resulting model and topic modeling results are used to highlight differences in the salience of SR elements among social groups. The approach of linking topic modeling and BN modeling offers a new and encouraging approach to analysis for ongoing research on SRs.

'A Bayesian Optimisation Algorithm for the Nurse Scheduling Problem'

Abstract- A Bayesian optimization algorithm for the nurse scheduling problem is presented, which involves choosing a suitable scheduling rule from a set for each nurse's assignment. Unlike our previous work that used GAs to implement implicit learning, the learning in the proposed algorithm is explicit, i.e. eventually, we will be able to identify and mix building blocks directly. The Bayesian optimization algorithm is applied to implement such explicit learning by building a Bayesian network of the joint distribution of solutions. The conditional probability of each variable in the network is computed according to an initial set of promising solutions. Subsequently, each new instance for each variable is generated by using the corresponding conditional probabilities, until all variables have been generated, i.e. in our case, a new rule string has been obtained. Another set of rule strings will be generated in this way, some of which will replace previous strings based on fitness selection. If stopping conditions are not met, the conditional probabilities for all nodes in the Bayesian network are updated again using the current set of promising rule strings. Computational results from 52 real data instances demonstrate the success of this approach. It is also suggested that the learning mechanism in the proposed approach might be suitable for other scheduling problems.

'Bayesian Optimisation for Nurse Scheduling'

A Bayesian optimisation algorithm for a nurse scheduling problem is presented, which involves choosing a suitable scheduling rule from a set for each nurse's assignment. When a human scheduler works, he normally builds a schedule systematically following a set of rules. After much practice, the scheduler gradually masters the knowledge of which solution parts go well with others. He can identify good parts and is aware of the solution quality even if the scheduling process is not yet completed, thus having the ability to finish a schedule by using flexible, rather than fixed, rules. In this paper, we design a more human-like scheduling algorithm, by using a Bayesian optimisation algorithm to implement explicit learning from past solutions. A nurse scheduling problem from a UK hospital is used for testing. Unlike our previous work that used Genetic Algorithms to implement implicit learning [1], the learning in the proposed algorithm is explicit, i.e. we identify and mix building blocks directly. The Bayesian optimisation algorithm is applied to implement such explicit learning by building a Bayesian network of the joint distribution of solutions. The conditional probability of each variable in the network is computed according to an initial set of promising solutions. Subsequently, each new instance for each variable is generated by using the corresponding conditional probabilities, until all variables have been generated, i.e. in our case, new rule strings have been obtained. Sets of rule strings are generated in this way, some of which will replace previous strings based on fitness. If stopping conditions are not met, the conditional probabilities for all nodes in the Bayesian network are updated again using the current set of promising rule strings. For clarity, consider the following toy example of scheduling five nurses with two rules (1: random allocation, 2: allocate nurse to low-cost shifts). In the beginning of the search, the probabilities of choosing rule 1 or 2 for each nurse is equal, i.e. 50%. After a few iterations, due to the selection pressure and reinforcement learning, we experience two solution pathways: Because pure low-cost or random allocation produces low quality solutions, either rule 1 is used for the first 2-3 nurses and rule 2 on remainder or vice versa. In essence, Bayesian network learns 'use rule 2 after 2-3x using rule 1' or vice versa. It should be noted that for our and most other scheduling problems, the structure of the network model is known and all variables are fully observed. In this case, the goal of learning is to find the rule values that maximize the likelihood of the training data. Thus, learning can amount to 'counting' in the case of multinomial distributions. For our problem, we use our rules: Random, Cheapest Cost, Best Cover and Balance of Cost and Cover. In more detail, the steps of our Bayesian optimisation algorithm for nurse scheduling are: 1. Set t = 0, and generate an initial population P(0) at random; 2. Use roulette-wheel selection to choose a set of promising rule strings S(t) from P(t); 3. Compute conditional probabilities of each node according to this set of promising solutions; 4. Assign each nurse using roulette-wheel selection based on the rules' conditional probabilities. A set of new rule strings O(t) will be generated in this way; 5. Create a new population P(t+1) by replacing some rule strings from P(t) with O(t), and set t = t+1; 6. If the termination conditions are not met (we use 2000 generations), go to step 2. Computational results from 52 real data instances demonstrate the success of this approach. They also suggest that the learning mechanism in the proposed approach might be suitable for other scheduling problems. Another direction for further research is to see if there is a good constructing sequence for individual data instances, given a fixed nurse scheduling order. If so, the good patterns could be recognized and then extracted as new domain knowledge. Thus, by using this extracted knowledge, we can assign specific rules to the corresponding nurses beforehand, and only schedule the remaining nurses with all available rules, making it possible to reduce the solution space. Acknowledgements The work was funded by the UK Government's major funding agency, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), under grand GR/R92899/01. References [1] Aickelin U, "An Indirect Genetic Algorithm for Set Covering Problems", Journal of the Operational Research Society, 53(10): 1118-1126,

'The application of Bayesian Optimization and Classifier Systems in Nurse Scheduling'

Abstract. Two ideas taken from Bayesian optimization and classifier systems are presented for personnel scheduling based on choosing a suitable scheduling rule from a set for each person's assignment. Unlike our previous work of using genetic algorithms whose learning is implicit, the learning in both approaches is explicit, i.e. we are able to identify building blocks directly. To achieve this target, the Bayesian optimization algorithm builds a Bayesian network of the joint probability distribution of the rules used to construct solutions, while the adapted classifier system assigns each rule a strength value that is constantly updated according to its usefulness in the current situation. Computational results from 52 real data instances of nurse scheduling demonstrate the success of both approaches. It is also suggested that the learning mechanism in the proposed approaches might be suitable for other scheduling problems.

Bayesian Optimisation Algorithm for Nurse Scheduling, Scalable Optimization via Probabilistic Modeling

Our research has shown that schedules can be built mimicking a human scheduler by using a set of rules that involve domain knowledge. This chapter presents a Bayesian Optimization Algorithm (BOA) for the nurse scheduling problem that chooses such suitable scheduling rules from a set for each nurse’s assignment. Based on the idea of using probabilistic models, the BOA builds a Bayesian network for the set of promising solutions and samples these networks to generate new candidate solutions. Computational results from 52 real data instances demonstrate the success of this approach. It is also suggested that the learning mechanism in the proposed algorithm may be suitable for other scheduling problems.

'The application of Bayesian Optimization and Classifier Systems in Nurse Scheduling'

Abstract. Two ideas taken from Bayesian optimization and classifier systems are presented for personnel scheduling based on choosing a suitable scheduling rule from a set for each person's assignment. Unlike our previous work of using genetic algorithms whose learning is implicit, the learning in both approaches is explicit, i.e. we are able to identify building blocks directly. To achieve this target, the Bayesian optimization algorithm builds a Bayesian network of the joint probability distribution of the rules used to construct solutions, while the adapted classifier system assigns each rule a strength value that is constantly updated according to its usefulness in the current situation. Computational results from 52 real data instances of nurse scheduling demonstrate the success of both approaches. It is also suggested that the learning mechanism in the proposed approaches might be suitable for other scheduling problems.

'Bayesian Optimisation for Nurse Scheduling'

A Bayesian optimisation algorithm for a nurse scheduling problem is presented, which involves choosing a suitable scheduling rule from a set for each nurse's assignment. When a human scheduler works, he normally builds a schedule systematically following a set of rules. After much practice, the scheduler gradually masters the knowledge of which solution parts go well with others. He can identify good parts and is aware of the solution quality even if the scheduling process is not yet completed, thus having the ability to finish a schedule by using flexible, rather than fixed, rules. In this paper, we design a more human-like scheduling algorithm, by using a Bayesian optimisation algorithm to implement explicit learning from past solutions. A nurse scheduling problem from a UK hospital is used for testing. Unlike our previous work that used Genetic Algorithms to implement implicit learning [1], the learning in the proposed algorithm is explicit, i.e. we identify and mix building blocks directly. The Bayesian optimisation algorithm is applied to implement such explicit learning by building a Bayesian network of the joint distribution of solutions. The conditional probability of each variable in the network is computed according to an initial set of promising solutions. Subsequently, each new instance for each variable is generated by using the corresponding conditional probabilities, until all variables have been generated, i.e. in our case, new rule strings have been obtained. Sets of rule strings are generated in this way, some of which will replace previous strings based on fitness. If stopping conditions are not met, the conditional probabilities for all nodes in the Bayesian network are updated again using the current set of promising rule strings. For clarity, consider the following toy example of scheduling five nurses with two rules (1: random allocation, 2: allocate nurse to low-cost shifts). In the beginning of the search, the probabilities of choosing rule 1 or 2 for each nurse is equal, i.e. 50%. After a few iterations, due to the selection pressure and reinforcement learning, we experience two solution pathways: Because pure low-cost or random allocation produces low quality solutions, either rule 1 is used for the first 2-3 nurses and rule 2 on remainder or vice versa. In essence, Bayesian network learns 'use rule 2 after 2-3x using rule 1' or vice versa. It should be noted that for our and most other scheduling problems, the structure of the network model is known and all variables are fully observed. In this case, the goal of learning is to find the rule values that maximize the likelihood of the training data. Thus, learning can amount to 'counting' in the case of multinomial distributions. For our problem, we use our rules: Random, Cheapest Cost, Best Cover and Balance of Cost and Cover. In more detail, the steps of our Bayesian optimisation algorithm for nurse scheduling are: 1. Set t = 0, and generate an initial population P(0) at random; 2. Use roulette-wheel selection to choose a set of promising rule strings S(t) from P(t); 3. Compute conditional probabilities of each node according to this set of promising solutions; 4. Assign each nurse using roulette-wheel selection based on the rules' conditional probabilities. A set of new rule strings O(t) will be generated in this way; 5. Create a new population P(t+1) by replacing some rule strings from P(t) with O(t), and set t = t+1; 6. If the termination conditions are not met (we use 2000 generations), go to step 2. Computational results from 52 real data instances demonstrate the success of this approach. They also suggest that the learning mechanism in the proposed approach might be suitable for other scheduling problems. Another direction for further research is to see if there is a good constructing sequence for individual data instances, given a fixed nurse scheduling order. If so, the good patterns could be recognized and then extracted as new domain knowledge. Thus, by using this extracted knowledge, we can assign specific rules to the corresponding nurses beforehand, and only schedule the remaining nurses with all available rules, making it possible to reduce the solution space. Acknowledgements The work was funded by the UK Government's major funding agency, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), under grand GR/R92899/01. References [1] Aickelin U, "An Indirect Genetic Algorithm for Set Covering Problems", Journal of the Operational Research Society, 53(10): 1118-1126,

'A Bayesian Optimisation Algorithm for the Nurse Scheduling Problem'

Abstract- A Bayesian optimization algorithm for the nurse scheduling problem is presented, which involves choosing a suitable scheduling rule from a set for each nurse's assignment. Unlike our previous work that used GAs to implement implicit learning, the learning in the proposed algorithm is explicit, i.e. eventually, we will be able to identify and mix building blocks directly. The Bayesian optimization algorithm is applied to implement such explicit learning by building a Bayesian network of the joint distribution of solutions. The conditional probability of each variable in the network is computed according to an initial set of promising solutions. Subsequently, each new instance for each variable is generated by using the corresponding conditional probabilities, until all variables have been generated, i.e. in our case, a new rule string has been obtained. Another set of rule strings will be generated in this way, some of which will replace previous strings based on fitness selection. If stopping conditions are not met, the conditional probabilities for all nodes in the Bayesian network are updated again using the current set of promising rule strings. Computational results from 52 real data instances demonstrate the success of this approach. It is also suggested that the learning mechanism in the proposed approach might be suitable for other scheduling problems.

A Bayesian optimization algorithm for the nurse scheduling problem

A Bayesian optimization algorithm for the nurse scheduling problem is presented, which involves choosing a suitable scheduling rule from a set for each nurse’s assignment. Unlike our previous work that used GAs to implement implicit learning, the learning in the proposed algorithm is explicit, i.e. eventually, we will be able to identify and mix building blocks directly. The Bayesian optimization algorithm is applied to implement such explicit learning by building a Bayesian network of the joint distribution of solutions. The conditional probability of each variable in the network is computed according to an initial set of promising solutions. Subsequently, each new instance for each variable is generated by using the corresponding conditional probabilities, until all variables have been generated, i.e. in our case, a new rule string has been obtained. Another set of rule strings will be generated in this way, some of which will replace previous strings based on fitness selection. If stopping conditions are not met, the conditional probabilities for all nodes in the Bayesian network are updated again using the current set of promising rule strings. Computational results from 52 real data instances demonstrate the success of this approach. It is also suggested that the learning mechanism in the proposed approach might be suitable for other scheduling problems.

Specification of Supervisory Control Systems for Ventricular Assist Devices

One of the most important recent improvements in cardiology is the use of ventricular assist devices (VADs) to help patients with severe heart diseases, especially when they are indicated to heart transplantation. The Institute Dante Pazzanese of Cardiology has been developing an implantable centrifugal blood pump that will be able to help a sick human heart to keep blood flow and pressure at physiological levels. This device will be used as a totally or partially implantable VAD. Therefore, an improvement on device performance is important for the betterment of the level of interaction with patient`s behavior or conditions. But some failures may occur if the device`s pumping control does not follow the changes in patient`s behavior or conditions. The VAD control system must consider tolerance to faults and have a dynamic adaptation according to patient`s cardiovascular system changes, and also must attend to changes in patient conditions, behavior, or comportments. This work proposes an application of the mechatronic approach to this class of devices based on advanced techniques for control, instrumentation, and automation to define a method for developing a hierarchical supervisory control system that is able to perform VAD control dynamically, automatically, and securely. For this methodology, we used concepts based on Bayesian network for patients` diagnoses, Petri nets to generate a VAD control algorithm, and Safety Instrumented Systems to ensure VAD system security. Applying these concepts, a VAD control system is being built for method effectiveness confirmation.

Development of Control Systems for Safety Instrumented Systems

Safety Instrumented Systems (SIS) are designed to prevent and / or mitigate accidents, avoiding undesirable high potential risk scenarios, assuring protection of people`s health, protecting the environment and saving costs of industrial equipment. The design of these systems require formal methods for ensuring the safety requirements, but according material published in this area, has not identified a consolidated procedure to match the task. This sense, this article introduces a formal method for diagnosis and treatment of critical faults based on Bayesian network (BN) and Petri net (PN). This approach considers diagnosis and treatment for each safety instrumented function (SIF) including hazard and operability (HAZOP) study in the equipment or system under control. It also uses BN and Behavioral Petri net (BPN) for diagnoses and decision-making and the PN for the synthesis, modeling and control to be implemented by Safety Programmable Logic Controller (PLC). An application example considering the diagnosis and treatment of critical faults is presented and illustrates the methodology proposed.

On-line fault diagnostic system for proton exchange membrane fuel cells

In this paper, a supervisor system, able to diagnose different types of faults during the operation of a proton exchange membrane fuel cell is introduced. The diagnosis is developed by applying Bayesian networks, which qualify and quantify the cause-effect relationship among the variables of the process. The fault diagnosis is based on the on-line monitoring of variables easy to measure in the machine such as voltage, electric current, and temperature. The equipment is a fuel cell system which can operate even when a fault occurs. The fault effects are based on experiments on the fault tolerant fuel cell, which are reproduced in a fuel cell model. A database of fault records is constructed from the fuel cell model, improving the generation time and avoiding permanent damage to the equipment. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Elements of a methodology to assess the alignment of core-values in collaborative networks

Collaborative networks are typically formed by heterogeneous and autonomous entities, and thus it is natural that each member has its own set of core-values. Since these values somehow drive the behaviour of the involved entities, the ability to quickly identify partners with compatible or common core-values represents an important element for the success of collaborative networks. However, tools to assess or measure the level of alignment of core-values are lacking. Since the concept of 'alignment' in this context is still ill-defined and shows a multifaceted nature, three perspectives are discussed. The first one uses a causal maps approach in order to capture, structure, and represent the influence relationships among core-values. This representation provides the basis to measure the alignment in terms of the structural similarity and influence among value systems. The second perspective considers the compatibility and incompatibility among core-values in order to define the alignment level. Under this perspective we propose a fuzzy inference system to estimate the alignment level, since this approach allows dealing with variables that are vaguely defined, and whose inter-relationships are difficult to define. Another advantage provided by this method is the possibility to incorporate expert human judgment in the definition of the alignment level. The last perspective uses a belief Bayesian network method, and was selected in order to assess the alignment level based on members' past behaviour. An example of application is presented where the details of each method are discussed.

eTourismGUI - Adaptative Interface

Mestrado em Engenharia Informática. Área de Especialização em Tecnologias do Conhecimento e Decisão.

Sistema Inteligente de Apoio ao Coach

O coaching é um processo que permite ajudar um ou mais indivíduos a definirem e saberem como concretizar os seus objetivos, sejam eles pessoais ou profissionais. Atualmente, existe um interesse e procura crescente de pessoas com experiência nesta área (designados por coaches) por parte de empresas, equipas desportivas, escolas e outras organizações, com a finalidade de obter um maior rendimento. De forma a ajudar os intervenientes no processo, este documento demonstra a necessidade de existir uma ferramenta de apoio que permite aos coaches gerirem melhor a sua atividade profissional. A pesquisa e estudo efetuados procuram responder a este caso, desenvolvendo um sistema informático inteligente de apoio ao coach dotado de uma interface centrada no utilizador. Antes de iniciar o desenvolvimento de um sistema inteligente é necessário realizar e apresentar um levantamento do estado da arte, mais concretamente sobre a interação homem-computador, modelação do perfil de utilizador e processo de coaching, que apresenta os fundamentos teóricos para a escolha da metodologia de desenvolvimento adequado. São apresentadas posteriormente as fases constituintes do modelo de desenvolvimento de interfaces escolhido, a engenharia de usabilidade, que se inicia com uma análise detalhada, permitindo de seguida uma estruturação dos conhecimentos obtidos e a aplicação de linhas de orientação estipuladas, finalizando com testes de utilização e respetivo feedback dos utilizadores. O protótipo desenvolvido distingue utilizadores com diferentes características, através de uma classificação por níveis e permite gerir todo o processo de coaching efetuado a outras pessoas ou ao próprio utilizador. O facto de existir uma classificação dos utilizadores faz com que a interação entre sistema e utilizadores seja diferente e adaptada às necessidades de cada um. O resultado dos testes de utilização com um caso prático e dos questionários efetuados permite detetar se o modelo foi bem-sucedido e funciona corretamente e o que é necessário alterar no futuro para facilitar a interação e satisfazer as necessidades de cada utilizador.