Using data insertion with the NAME model to simulate the 8 May 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash cloud

A data insertion method, where a dispersion model is initialized from ash properties derived from a series of satellite observations, is used to model the 8 May 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash cloud which extended from Iceland to northern Spain. We also briefly discuss the application of this method to the April 2010 phase of the Eyjafjallajökull eruption and the May 2011 Grímsvötn eruption. An advantage of this method is that very little knowledge about the eruption itself is required because some of the usual eruption source parameters are not used. The method may therefore be useful for remote volcanoes where good satellite observations of the erupted material are available, but little is known about the properties of the actual eruption. It does, however, have a number of limitations related to the quality and availability of the observations. We demonstrate that, using certain configurations, the data insertion method is able to capture the structure of a thin filament of ash extending over northern Spain that is not fully captured by other modeling methods. It also verifies well against the satellite observations according to the quantitative object-based quality metric, SAL—structure, amplitude, location, and the spatial coverage metric, Figure of Merit in Space.

Data insertion in volcanic ash cloud forecasting

During the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in April and May 2010, the London Volcanic Ash  Advisory Centre demonstrated the importance of infrared (IR) satellite imagery for monitoring volcanic ash and validating the Met Office operational model, NAME. This model is used to forecast ash dispersion and forms much of the basis of the advice given to civil aviation. NAME requires a source term describing the properties of the eruption plume at the volcanic source. Elements of the source term are often highly uncertain and significant effort has therefore been invested into the use of satellite observations of ash clouds to constrain them. This paper presents a data insertion method, where satellite observations of downwind ash clouds are used to create effective ‘virtual sources’ far from the vent. Uncertainty in the model output is known to increase over the duration of a model run, as inaccuracies in the source term, meteorological data and the parameterizations of the   modelled processes accumulate. This new technique, where the dispersion model (DM) is ‘reinitialized’ part-­way through a run, could go some way to addressing this.

The effectiveness of protected areas in the conservation of species with changing geographical ranges

A cornerstone of conservation is the designation and management of protected areas (PAs): locations often under conservation management containing species of conservation concern, where some development and other detrimental influences are prevented or mitigated. However, the value of PAs for conserving biodiversity in the long term has been questioned given that species are changing their distributions in response to climatic change. There is a concern that PAs may become climatically unsuitable for those species that they were designated to protect, and may not be located appropriately to receive newly-colonizing species for which the climate is improving. In the present study, we analyze fine-scale distribution data from detailed resurveys of seven butterfly and 11 bird species in Great Britain aiming to examine any effect of PA designation in preventing extinctions and promoting colonizations. We found a positive effect of PA designation on species' persistence at trailing-edge warm range margins, although with a decreased magnitude at higher latitudes and altitudes. In addition, colonizations by range expanding species were more likely to occur on PAs even after altitude and latitude were taken into account. PAs will therefore remain an important strategy for conservation. The potential for PA management to mitigate the effects of climatic change for retracting species deserves further investigation.

Can site and landscape-scale environmental attributes buffer bird populations against weather events?

Projected impacts of climate change on the populations and distributions of species pose a challenge for conservationists. In response, a number of adaptation strategies to enable species to persist in a changing climate have been proposed. Management to maximise the quality of habitat at existing sites may reduce the magnitude or frequency of climate-driven population declines. In addition large-scale management of landscapes could potentially improve the resilience of populations by facilitating inter-population movements. A reduction in the obstacles to species’ range expansion, may also allow species to track changing conditions better through shifts to new locations, either regionally or locally. However, despite a strong theoretical base, there is limited empirical evidence to support these management interventions. This makes it difficult for conservationists to decide on the most appropriate strategy for different circumstances. Here extensive data from long-term monitoring of woodland birds at individual sites are used to examine the two-way interactions between habitat and both weather and population count in the previous year. This tests the extent to which site-scale and landscape-scale habitat attributes may buffer populations against variation in winter weather (a key driver of woodland bird population size) and facilitate subsequent population growth. Our results provide some support for the prediction that landscape-scale attributes (patch isolation and area of woodland habitat) may influence the ability of some woodland bird species to withstand weather-mediated population declines. These effects were most apparent among generalist woodland species. There was also evidence that several, primarily specialist, woodland species are more likely to increase following population decline where there is more woodland at both site and landscape scales. These results provide empirical support for the concept that landscape-scale conservation efforts may make the populations of some woodland bird species more resilient to climate change. However in isolation, management is unlikely to provide a universal benefit to all species.

Novel synthesised flavone derivatives provide significant insight into the structural features required for enhanced anti-proliferative activity

With many cancers showing resistance to current chemotherapies, the search for novel anti-cancer agents is attracting considerable attention. Natural flavonoids have been identified as useful leads in such programmes. However, since an in-depth understanding of the structural requirements for optimum activity is generally lacking, further research is required before the full potential of flavonoids as anti-proliferative agents can be realised. Herein a broad library of 76 methoxy and hydroxy flavones, and their 4-thio analogues, was constructed and their structure-activity relationships for anti-proliferative activity against the breast cancer cell lines MCF-7 (ER+ve), MCF-7/DX (ER+ve, anthracycline resistant) and MDA-MB-231 (ER-ve) were probed. Within this library, 42 compounds were novel, and all compounds were afforded in good yields and > 95% purity. The most promising lead compounds, specifically the novel hydroxy 4-thioflavones 15f and 16f, were further evaluated for their anti-proliferative activities against a broader range of cancer cell lines by the National Cancer Institute (NCI), USA and displayed significant growth inhibition profiles (e.g Compound-15f: MCF-7 (GI50 = 0.18 μM), T-47D (GI50 = 0.03 μM) and MDA-MB-468 (GI50 = 0.47 μM) and compound-16f: MCF-7 (GI50 = 1.46 μM), T-47D (GI50 = 1.27 μM) and MDA-MB-231 (GI50 = 1.81 μM). Overall, 15f and 16f exhibited 7-46 fold greater anti-proliferative potency than the natural flavone chrysin (2d). A systematic structure-activity relationship study against the breast cancer cell lines highlighted that free hydroxyl groups and the B-ring phenyl groups were essential for enhanced anti-proliferative activities. Substitution of the 4-C=O functionality with a 4-C=S functionality, and incorporation of electron withdrawing groups at C4’ of the B-ring phenyl, also enhanced activity. Molecular docking and mechanistic studies suggest that the anti-proliferative effects of flavones 15f and 16f are mediated via ER-independent cleavage of PARP and downregulation of GSK-3β for MCF-7 and MCF-7/DX cell lines. For the MDA-MB-231 cell line, restoration of the wild-type p53 DNA binding activity of mutant p53 tumour suppressor gene was indicated.

Consensus Statement: Chromosomal Microarray Is a First-Tier Clinical Diagnostic Test for Individuals with Developmental Disabilities or Congenital Anomalies

Chromosomal microarray (CMA) is increasingly utilized for genetic testing of individuals with unexplained developmental delay/intellectual disability (DD/ID), autism spectrum disorders (ASD), or multiple congenital anomalies (MCA). Performing CMA and G-banded karyotyping on every patient substantially increases the total cost of genetic testing. The International Standard Cytogenomic Array (ISCA) Consortium held two international workshops and conducted a literature review of 33 studies, including 21,698 patients tested by CMA. We provide an evidence-based summary of clinical cytogenetic testing comparing CMA to G-banded karyotyping with respect to technical advantages and limitations, diagnostic yield for various types of chromosomal aberrations, and issues that affect test interpretation. CMA offers a much higher diagnostic yield (15%-20%) for genetic testing of individuals with unexplained DD/ID, ASD, or MCA than a G-banded karyotype (similar to 3%, excluding Down syndrome and other recognizable chromosomal syndromes), primarily because of its higher sensitivity for submicroscopic deletions and duplications. Truly balanced rearrangements and low-level mosaicism are generally not detectable by arrays, but these are relatively infrequent causes of abnormal phenotypes in this population (<1%). Available evidence strongly supports the use of CMA in place of G-banded karyotyping as the first-tier cytogenetic diagnostic test for patients with DD/ID, ASD, or MCA. G-banded karyotype analysis should be reserved for patients with obvious chromosomal syndromes (e.g., Down syndrome), a family history of chromosomal rearrangement, or a history of multiple miscarriages.

Intraerythrocytic stages of Plasmodium falciparum biosynthesize menaquinone

Herein, we show that intraerythrocytic stages of Plasmodium falciparum have an active pathway for biosynthesis of menaquinone. Kinetic assays confirmed that plasmodial menaquinone acts at least in the electron transport. Similarly to Escherichia coli, we observed increased levels of menaquinone in parasites kept under anaerobic conditions. Additionally, the mycobacterial inhibitor of menaquinone synthesis Ro 48-8071 also suppressed menaquinone biosynthesis and growth of parasites, although off-targets may play a role in this growth-inhibitory effect. Due to its absence in humans, the menaquinone biosynthesis can be considered an important drug target for malaria. (c) 2010 Federation of European Biochemical Societies. Published by Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Upper limit on the cosmic-ray photon flux above 10(19) eV using the surface detector of the Pierre Auger Observatory

A method is developed to search for air showers initiated by photons using data recorded by the surface detector of the Auger Observatory. The approach is based on observables sensitive to the longitudinal shower development, the signal risetime and the curvature of the shower front. Applying this method to the data, tipper limits on the flux of photons of 3.8 x 10(-3), 2.5 x 10(-3), and 2.2 x 10(-3) km(-2) sr(-1) yr(-1) above 10(19) eV, 2 x 10(19) eV, and 4 x 10(19) eV are derived, with corresponding limits on the fraction of photons being 2.0%, 5.1%, and 31% (all limits at 95% c.l.). These photon limits disfavor certain exotic models of sources of cosmic rays. The results also show that the approach adopted by the Auger Observatory to calibrate the shower energy is not strongly biased by a contamination from photons. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Correlation of the highest-energy cosmic rays with the positions of nearby active galactic nuclei

Data collected by the Pierre Auger Observatory provide evidence for anisotropy in the arrival directions of the cosmic rays with the highest-energies, which are correlated with the positions of relatively nearby active galactic nuclei (AGN) [Pierre Auger Collaboration, Science 318 (2007) 938]. The correlation has maximum significance for cosmic rays with energy greater than similar to 6 x 10(19) eV and AGN at a distance less than similar to 75 Mpc. We have confirmed the anisotropy at a confidence level of more than 99% through a test with parameters specified a priori, using an independent data set. The observed correlation is compatible with the hypothesis that cosmic rays with the highest-energies originate from extra-galactic sources close enough so that their flux is not significantly attenuated by interaction with the cosmic background radiation (the Greisen-Zatsepin-Kuz`min effect). The angular scale of the correlation observed is a few degrees, which suggests a predominantly light composition unless the magnetic fields are very weak outside the thin disk of our galaxy. Our present data do not identify AGN as the sources of cosmic rays unambiguously, and other candidate sources which are distributed as nearby AGN are not ruled out. We discuss the prospect of unequivocal identification of individual sources of the highest-energy cosmic rays within a few years of continued operation of the Pierre Auger Observatory. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Advanced functionality for radio analysis in the Offline software framework of the Pierre Auger Observatory

The advent of the Auger Engineering Radio Array (AERA) necessitates the development of a powerful framework for the analysis of radio measurements of cosmic ray air showers. As AERA performs ""radio-hybrid"" measurements of air shower radio emission in coincidence with the surface particle detectors and fluorescence telescopes of the Pierre Auger Observatory, the radio analysis functionality had to be incorporated in the existing hybrid analysis solutions for fluorescence and surface detector data. This goal has been achieved in a natural way by extending the existing Auger Offline software framework with radio functionality. In this article, we lay out the design, highlights and features of the radio extension implemented in the Auger Offline framework. Its functionality has achieved a high degree of sophistication and offers advanced features such as vectorial reconstruction of the electric field, advanced signal processing algorithms, a transparent and efficient handling of FFTs, a very detailed simulation of detector effects, and the read-in of multiple data formats including data from various radio simulation codes. The source code of this radio functionality can be made available to interested parties on request. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trigger and aperture of the surface detector array of the Pierre Auger Observatory

The surface detector array of the Pierre Auger Observatory consists of 1600 water-Cherenkov detectors, for the study of extensive air showers (EAS) generated by ultra-high-energy cosmic rays. We describe the trigger hierarchy, from the identification of candidate showers at the level of a single detector, amongst a large background (mainly random single cosmic ray muons), up to the selection of real events and the rejection of random coincidences. Such trigger makes the surface detector array fully efficient for the detection of EAS with energy above 3 x 10(18) eV, for all zenith angles between 0 degrees and 60 degrees, independently of the position of the impact point and of the mass of the primary particle. In these range of energies and angles, the exposure of the surface array can be determined purely on the basis of the geometrical acceptance. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.