Bounding Standard Gaussian Tail Probabilities

We review various inequalities for Mills' ratio (1 - Φ)= Ø, where Ø and Φ denote the standard Gaussian density and distribution function, respectively. Elementary considerations involving finite continued fractions lead to a general approximation scheme which implies and refines several known bounds.

Consistency of Concave Regression with an Application to Current-Status Data

We consider the problem of nonparametric estimation of a concave regression function F. We show that the supremum distance between the least square s estimatorand F on a compact interval is typically of order(log(n)/n)2/5. This entails rates of convergence for the estimator’s derivative. Moreover, we discuss the impact of additional constraints on F such as monotonicity and pointwise bounds. Then we apply these results to the analysis of current status data, where the distribution function of the event times is assumed to be concave.

Low-energy energetic neutral atom imaging of Io plasma and neutral tori

Io's plasma and neutral tori play significant roles in the Jovian magnetosphere. We present feasibility studies of measuring low-energy energetic neutral atoms (LENAs) generated from the Io tori. We calculate the LENA flux between 10 eV and 3 keV. The energy range includes the corotational plasma flow energy. The expected differential flux at Ganymede distance is typically 10(3)-10(5) cm(-2) s(-1) sr(-1) eV(-1) near the energy of the corotation. It is above the detection level of the planned LENA sensor that is to be flown to the Jupiter system with integration times of 0.01-1 s. The flux has strong asymmetry with respective to the Io phase. The observations will exhibit periodicities, which can be attributed to the Jovian magnetosphere rotation and the rotation of Io around Jupiter. The energy spectra will exhibit dispersion signatures, because of the non-negligible flight time of the LENAs from Io to the satellite. In 2030, the Jupiter exploration mission JUICE will conduct a LENA measurement with a LENA instrument, the Jovian Neutrals Analyzer (JNA). From the LENA observations collected by JNA, we will be able to derive characteristic quantities, such as the density, velocity, velocity distribution function, and composition of plasma-torus particles. We also discuss the possible physics to be explored by JNA in addition to the constraints for operating the sensor and analyzing the obtained dataset. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Interstellar Neutral He haze in the heliosphere: what can we learn?

Neutral interstellar helium has been observed by the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) since 2009, with a signal-to-noise ratio well above 1000. Because of the geometry of the observations, the signal observed from January to March each year is the easiest to identify. However, as we show via simulations, the portion of the signal in the range of intensities from 10(-3) to 10(-2) of the peak value, previously mostly left out from the analysis, may provide important information about the details of the distribution function of interstellar He gas in front of the heliosphere. In particular, these observations may inform us about possible departures of the parent interstellar He population from equilibrium. We compare the expected distribution of the signal for the canonical assumption of a single Maxwell-Boltzmann population with the distributions for a superposition of the Maxwell-Boltzmann primary population and the recently discovered Warm Breeze, and for a single primary population given by a kappa function. We identify the regions on the sky where the differences between those cases are expected to be the most visible against the background. We discuss the diagnostic potential of the fall peak of the interstellar signal, reduced by a factor of 50 due to the Compton-Getting effect but still above the detection limit of IBEX. We point out the strong energy dependence of the fall signal and suggest that searching for this signal in the data could bring an independent assessment of the low-energy measurement threshold of the IBEX-Lo sensor.

Modeling a health promotion campaign process

In this work we will present a model that describes how the number of healthy and unhealthy subjects that belong to a cohort, changes through time when there are occurrences of health promotion campaigns aiming to change the undesirable behavior. This model also includes immigration and emigration components for each group and a component taking into account when a subject that used to perform a healthy behavior changes to perform the unhealthy behavior. We will express the model in terms of a bivariate probability generating function and in addition we will simulate the model. ^ An illustrative example on how to apply the model to the promotion of condom use among adolescents will be created and we will use it to compare the results obtained from the simulations and the results obtained by the probability generating function. ^

Moment Based Inference with Stratified Data

Many datasets used by economists and other social scientists are collected by stratified sampling. The sampling scheme used to collect the data induces a probability distribution on the observed sample that differs from the target or underlying distribution for which inference is to be made. If this effect is not taken into account, subsequent statistical inference can be seriously biased. This paper shows how to do efficient semiparametric inference in moment restriction models when data from the target population is collected by three widely used sampling schemes: variable probability sampling, multinomial sampling, and standard stratified sampling.

Dynamic Stock Market Interactions between the Canadian, Mexican, and the United States Markets: The NAFTA Experience

This paper explores the dynamic linkages that portray different facets of the joint probability distribution of stock market returns in NAFTA (i.e., Canada, Mexico, and the US). Our examination of interactions of the NAFTA stock markets considers three issues. First, we examine the long-run relationship between the three markets, using cointegration techniques. Second, we evaluate the dynamic relationships between the three markets, using impulse-response analysis. Finally, we explore the volatility transmission process between the three markets, using a variety of multivariate GARCH models. Our results also exhibit significant volatility transmission between the second moments of the NAFTA stock markets, albeit not homogenous. The magnitude and trend of the conditional correlations indicate that in the last few years, the Mexican stock market exhibited a tendency toward increased integration with the US market. Finally, we do note that evidence exists that the Peso and Asian financial crises as well as the stock-market crash in the US affect the return and volatility time-series relationships.

Bayesian inference and its application to meta-analysis of epidemiologic data

In Part One, the foundations of Bayesian inference are reviewed, and the technicalities of the Bayesian method are illustrated. Part Two applies the Bayesian meta-analysis program, the Confidence Profile Method (CPM), to clinical trial data and evaluates the merits of using Bayesian meta-analysis for overviews of clinical trials.^ The Bayesian method of meta-analysis produced similar results to the classical results because of the large sample size, along with the input of a non-preferential prior probability distribution. These results were anticipated through explanations in Part One of the mechanics of the Bayesian approach. ^

NOVEL PHANTOMS AND POST-PROCESSING FOR DIFFUSION SPECTRUM IMAGING

High Angular Resolution Diffusion Imaging (HARDI) techniques, including Diffusion Spectrum Imaging (DSI), have been proposed to resolve crossing and other complex fiber architecture in the human brain white matter. In these methods, directional information of diffusion is inferred from the peaks in the orientation distribution function (ODF). Extensive studies using histology on macaque brain, cat cerebellum, rat hippocampus and optic tracts, and bovine tongue are qualitatively in agreement with the DSI-derived ODFs and tractography. However, there are only two studies in the literature which validated the DSI results using physical phantoms and both these studies were not performed on a clinical MRI scanner. Also, the limited studies which optimized DSI in a clinical setting, did not involve a comparison against physical phantoms. Finally, there is lack of consensus on the necessary pre- and post-processing steps in DSI; and ground truth diffusion fiber phantoms are not yet standardized. Therefore, the aims of this dissertation were to design and construct novel diffusion phantoms, employ post-processing techniques in order to systematically validate and optimize (DSI)-derived fiber ODFs in the crossing regions on a clinical 3T MR scanner, and develop user-friendly software for DSI data reconstruction and analysis. Phantoms with a fixed crossing fiber configuration of two crossing fibers at 90° and 45° respectively along with a phantom with three crossing fibers at 60°, using novel hollow plastic capillaries and novel placeholders, were constructed. T2-weighted MRI results on these phantoms demonstrated high SNR, homogeneous signal, and absence of air bubbles. Also, a technique to deconvolve the response function of an individual peak from the overall ODF was implemented, in addition to other DSI post-processing steps. This technique greatly improved the angular resolution of the otherwise unresolvable peaks in a crossing fiber ODF. The effects of DSI acquisition parameters and SNR on the resultant angular accuracy of DSI on the clinical scanner were studied and quantified using the developed phantoms. With a high angular direction sampling and reasonable levels of SNR, quantification of a crossing region in the 90°, 45° and 60° phantoms resulted in a successful detection of angular information with mean ± SD of 86.93°±2.65°, 44.61°±1.6° and 60.03°±2.21° respectively, while simultaneously enhancing the ODFs in regions containing single fibers. For the applicability of these validated methodologies in DSI, improvement in ODFs and fiber tracking from known crossing fiber regions in normal human subjects were demonstrated; and an in-house software package in MATLAB which streamlines the data reconstruction and post-processing for DSI, with easy to use graphical user interface was developed. In conclusion, the phantoms developed in this dissertation offer a means of providing ground truth for validation of reconstruction and tractography algorithms of various diffusion models (including DSI). Also, the deconvolution methodology (when applied as an additional DSI post-processing step) significantly improved the angular accuracy of the ODFs obtained from DSI, and should be applicable to ODFs obtained from the other high angular resolution diffusion imaging techniques.

Dust flux records from the Subarctic North Pacific

We present a new record of eolian dust flux to the western Subarctic North Pacific (SNP) covering the past 27000 years based on a core from the Detroit Seamount. Comparing the SNP dust record to the NGRIP ice core record shows significant differences in the amplitude of dust changes to the two regions during the last deglaciation, while the timing of abrupt changes is synchronous. If dust deposition in the SNP faithfully records its mobilization in East Asian source regions, then the difference in the relative amplitude must reflect climate-related changes in atmospheric dust transport to Greenland. Based on the synchronicity in the timing of dust changes in the SNP and Greenland, we tie abrupt deglacial transitions in the 230Th-normalized 4He flux record to corresponding transitions in the well-dated NGRIP dust flux record to provide a new chronostratigraphic technique for marine sediments from the SNP. Results from this technique are complemented by radiocarbon dating, which allows us to independently constrain radiocarbon paleoreservoir ages. We find paleoreservoir ages of 745 ± 140 yr at 11653 yr BP, 680 ± 228 yr at 14630 yr BP and 790 ± 498 yr at 23290 yr BP. Our reconstructed paleoreservoir ages are consistent with modern surface water reservoir ages in the western SNP. Good temporal synchronicity between eolian dust records from the Subantarctic Atlantic and equatorial Pacific and the ice core record from Antarctica supports the reliability of the proposed dust tuning method to be used more widely in other global ocean regions.

Paleoceanography of sediment cores SO202-27-6 during MIS 3

The modern subarctic Pacific is characterized by a steep salinity-driven surface water stratification, which hampers the supply of saline and nutrient-rich deeper waters into the euphotic zone, limiting productivity. However, the strength of the halocline might have varied in the past. Here, we present diatom oxygen (d18Odiat) and silicon (d30Sidiat) stable isotope data from the open subarctic North-East (NE) Pacific (SO202-27-6; Gulf of Alaska), in combination with other proxy data (Neogloboquadrina pachydermasin d18O, biogenic opal, Ca and Fe intensities, IRD), to evaluate changes in surface water hydrography and productivity during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3, characterized by millennial-scale temperature changes (Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles) documented in Greenland ice cores.

hyDRaCAT Spectral Reflectance Library: Hyperspectral Field Spectroscopy and Field Spectro-Goniometry of Siberian and Alaskan Tundra

hyDRaCAT Spectral Reflectance Library for tundra provides the surface reflectance data and the bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) of important Arctic tundra vegetation communities at representative Siberian and Alaskan tundra sites. The aim of this dataset is the hyperspectral and spectro-directional reflectance characterization as basis for the extraction of vegetation parameters, and the normalization of BRDF effects in off-nadir and multi-temporal remote sensing data. The spectroscopic and field spectro-goniometric measurements were undertaken on the YAMAL2011 expedition of representative Siberian vegetation fields and on the North American Arctic Transect NAAT2012 expedition of Alaskan vegetation fields both belonging to the Greening-of-the-Arctic (GOA) program. For the field spectroscopy each 100 m2 vegetation study grid was divided into quadrats of 1 × 1 m. The averaged reflectance of all quadrats represents the spectral reflectance at the scale of the whole grid at the 10 × 10 m scale. For the surface radiometric measurements two GER1500 portable field spectroradiometers (Spectra Vista Corporation, Poughkeepsie, NY, USA) were used. The GER1500 measures radiance across the wavelength range of 350-1,050 nm, with sampling intervals of 1.5 nm and a radiance accuracy of 1.2 × 10**-1 W/cm**2/nm/sr. In order to increase the signal-to-noise ratio, 32 individual measurements were averaged per one target scan. To minimize variations in the target reflectance due to sun zenith angle changes, all measurements at one study location have been performed under similar sun zenith angles and during clear-sky conditions. The field spectrometer measurements were carried out with a GER1500 UV-VIS spectrometer The spectrogoniometer measurements were carried out with a self-designed spectro-goniometer: the Manual Transportable Instrument platform for ground-based Spectro-directional observations (ManTIS, patent publication number: DE 10 2011 117 713.A1). The ManTIS was equipped with the GER1500 spectrometer allowing spectro-directional measurements with up to 30° viewing zenith angle by full 360° viewing azimuth angles. Measurements in central Yamal (Siberia) at the research site 'Vaskiny Dachi' were carried out in the late summer phenological state from August 12 2011 to August 28 2011. All measurements in Alaska along the North South transect on the North Slope were taken between 29 June and 11 July 2012, ensuring that the vegetation was in the same phenological state near peak growing season.

Paleoceanography of sediment cores SO202-27-6 and MD01-2416

The glacial-to-Holocene evolution of subarctic Pacific surface water stratification and silicic acid (Si) dynamics is investigated based on new combined diatom oxygen (d18Odiat) and silicon (d30Sidiat) isotope records, along with new biogenic opal, subsurface foraminiferal d18O, alkenone-based sea surface temperature, sea ice, diatom, and core logging data from the NE Pacific. Our results suggest that d18Odiat values are primarily influenced by changes in freshwater discharge from the Cordilleran Ice Sheet (CIS), while corresponding d30Sidiat are primarily influenced by changes in Si supply to surface waters. Our data indicate enhanced glacial to mid Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1) NE Pacific surface water stratification, generally limiting the Si supply to surface waters. However, we suggest that an increase in Si supply during early HS1, when surface waters were still stratified, is linked to increased North Pacific Intermediate Water formation. The coincidence between fresh surface waters during HS1 and enhanced ice-rafted debris sedimentation in the North Atlantic indicates a close link between CIS and Laurentide Ice Sheet dynamics and a dominant atmospheric control on CIS deglaciation. The Bølling/Allerød (B/A) is characterized by destratification in the subarctic Pacific and an increased supply of saline, Si-rich waters to surface waters. This change toward increased convection occurred prior to the Bølling warming and is likely triggered by a switch to sea ice-free conditions during late HS1. Our results furthermore indicate a decreased efficiency of the biological pump during late HS1 and the B/A (possibly also the Younger Dryas), suggesting that the subarctic Pacific has then been a source region of atmospheric CO2.

Rock magnetic properties and radiocarbon dates of samples obtained on Ile de Possession, South Indian Ocean

A 6200 year old peat sequence, cored in a volcanic crater on the sub-Antarctic Ile de la Possession (Iles Crozet), has been investigated, based on a multi-proxy approach. The methods applied are macrobotanical (mosses, seeds and fruits) and diatom analyses, complemented by geochemical (Rock-Eval6) and rock magnetic measurements. The chronology of the core is based on 5 radiocarbon dates. When combining all the proxy data the following changes could be inferred. From the onset of the peat formation (6200 cal yr BP) until ca. 5550 cal yr BP, biological production was high and climatic conditions must have been relatively warm. At ca. 5550 cal yr BP a shift to low biological production occurred, lasting until ca. 4600 cal yr BP. During this period the organic matter is well preserved, pointing to a cold and/or wet environment. At ca. 4600 cal yr BP, biological production increased again. From ca. 4600 cal yr BP until ca. 4100 cal yr BP a 'hollow and hummock' micro topography developed at the peat surface, resulting in the presence of a mixture of wetter and drier species in the macrobotanical record. After ca. 4100 cal yr BP, the wet species disappear and a generally drier, acidic bog came into existence. A major shift in all the proxy data is observed at ca. 2800 cal yr BP, pointing to wetter and especially windier climatic conditions on the island probably caused by an intensification and/or latitudinal shift of the southern westerly belt. Caused by a stronger wind regime, erosion of the peat surface occurred at that time and a lake was formed in the peat deposits of the crater, which is still present today.

Debris flow magnitudes: a global catalog

The episodic occurrence of debris flow events in response to stochastic precipitation and wildfire events makes hazard prediction challenging. Previous work has shown that frequency-magnitude distributions of non-fire-related debris flows follow a power law, but less is known about the distribution of post-fire debris flows. As a first step in parameterizing hazard models, we use frequency-magnitude distributions and cumulative distribution functions to compare volumes of post-fire debris flows to non-fire-related debris flows. Due to the large number of events required to parameterize frequency-magnitude distributions, and the relatively small number of post-fire event magnitudes recorded in the literature, we collected data on 73 recent post-fire events in the field. The resulting catalog of 988 debris flow events is presented as an appendix to this article. We found that the empirical cumulative distribution function of post-fire debris flow volumes is composed of smaller events than that of non-fire-related debris flows. In addition, the slope of the frequency-magnitude distribution of post-fire debris flows is steeper than that of non-fire-related debris flows, evidence that differences in the post-fire environment tend to produce a higher proportion of small events. We propose two possible explanations: 1) post-fire events occur on shorter return intervals than debris flows in similar basins that do not experience fire, causing their distribution to shift toward smaller events due to limitations in sediment supply, or 2) fire causes changes in resisting and driving forces on a package of sediment, such that a smaller perturbation of the system is required in order for a debris flow to occur, resulting in smaller event volumes.