The Use of Systematic Value Strategies in Separating the Winners from the Losers: Evidence from the Finnish Markets

This study examines the Magic Formula and ERP5 value strategies in the Finnish stocks markets. Magic Formula ranks stocks based on EV/EBIT and ROA and ERP5 based on EV/EBIT, ROA, P/B and five-year trailing ROA. The purpose of the study is to examine whether the value strategies can be used to generate excess returns over the market index. The data has been collected from the Datastream database for the sample period from May 1997 to May 2010 and consists of the companies listed on the main list of Helsinki Stock Exchange. This study confirms the findings of previous research that value premium exists in the Finnish stock markets and that systematic value strategies can be used to form portfolios that outperform the market index with lower volatility.

The Impact of European Macroeconomic News Announcements on CIVETS Stock Markets

The purpose of this research is to investigate how CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa) stock markets are integrated with Europe as measured by the impact of euro area (EA) scheduled macroeconomic news announcements, which are related to macroeconomic indicators that are commonly used to indicate the direction of the economy. Macroeconomic announcements used in this study can be divided into four categories; (1) prices, (2) real economy, (3) money supply and (4) business climate and consumer confidence. The data set consists of daily market data from CIVETS and scheduled macroeconomic announcements from the EA for the years 2007-2012. The econometric model used in this research is Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH). Empirical results show diverse impacts of macroeconomic news releases and surprises for different categories of news supporting the perception of heterogeneity among CIVETS. The analyses revealed that in general EA macroeconomic news releases and surprises affect stock market volatility in CIVETS and only in some cases asset pricing. In conclusion, all CIVETS stock markets reacted to the incoming EA macroeconomic news suggesting market integration to some extent. Thus, EA should be considered as a possible risk factor when investing in CIVETS.

Diversification benefits for a Finnish non-industrial private forest investor: Real Estate Investment Trusts in the USA

This thesis examined both domestic and international forest investment options for a Finnish non-industrial private forest investor. The focus was on forest-based investment instruments. The influence of movements of currency exchange rates on foreign returns were also taken into account. Annual data from 1995 to 2011 was used. The main portfolio optimization model in this study was the Mean-Variance model but the results were also validated by using the Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall models. In addition, the exchange rate risk hedging was established by using one-week-maturity forward contracts. The results suggested that 75 % of the total wealth should be invested in Finnish private forests and the rest, 25 %, to a US REIT, in this case Rayonier. With hedging, the total return on the portfolio was 7.21 % (NIPF 5.3%) with the volatility of 6.63 % (NIPF 7.9%). Taxation supported US investments in this case. As a conclusion, a Finnish private forest investor may, as evidenced, benefit in diversifying a portfolio using REITs in the US.

Paper for printed electronics and functionality

Mass-produced paper electronics (large area organic printed electronics on paper-based substrates, “throw-away electronics”) has the potential to introduce the use of flexible electronic applications in everyday life. While paper manufacturing and printing have a long history, they were not developed with electronic applications in mind. Modifications to paper substrates and printing processes are required in order to obtain working electronic devices. This should be done while maintaining the high throughput of conventional printing techniques and the low cost and recyclability of paper. An understanding of the interactions between the functional materials, the printing process and the substrate are required for successful manufacturing of advanced devices on paper. Based on the understanding, a recyclable, multilayer-coated paper-based substrate that combines adequate barrier and printability properties for printed electronics and sensor applications was developed in this work. In this multilayer structure, a thin top-coating consisting of mineral pigments is coated on top of a dispersion-coated barrier layer. The top-coating provides well-controlled sorption properties through controlled thickness and porosity, thus enabling optimizing the printability of functional materials. The penetration of ink solvents and functional materials stops at the barrier layer, which not only improves the performance of the functional material but also eliminates potential fiber swelling and de-bonding that can occur when the solvents are allowed to penetrate into the base paper. The multi-layer coated paper under consideration in the current work consists of a pre-coating and a smoothing layer on which the barrier layer is deposited. Coated fine paper may also be used directly as basepaper, ensuring a smooth base for the barrier layer. The top layer is thin and smooth consisting of mineral pigments such as kaolin, precipitated calcium carbonate, silica or blends of these. All the materials in the coating structure have been chosen in order to maintain the recyclability and sustainability of the substrate. The substrate can be coated in steps, sequentially layer by layer, which requires detailed understanding and tuning of the wetting properties and topography of the barrier layer versus the surface tension of the top-coating. A cost competitive method for industrial scale production is the curtain coating technique allowing extremely thin top-coatings to be applied simultaneously with a closed and sealed barrier layer. The understanding of the interactions between functional materials formulated and applied on paper as inks, makes it possible to create a paper-based substrate that can be used to manufacture printed electronics-based devices and sensors on paper. The multitude of functional materials and their complex interactions make it challenging to draw general conclusions in this topic area. Inevitably, the results become partially specific to the device chosen and the materials needed in its manufacturing. Based on the results, it is clear that for inks based on dissolved or small size functional materials, a barrier layer is beneficial and ensures the functionality of the printed material in a device. The required active barrier life time depends on the solvents or analytes used and their volatility. High aspect ratio mineral pigments, which create tortuous pathways and physical barriers within the barrier layer limit the penetration of solvents used in functional inks. The surface pore volume and pore size can be optimized for a given printing process and ink through a choice of pigment type and coating layer thickness. However, when manufacturing multilayer functional devices, such as transistors, which consist of several printed layers, compromises have to be made. E.g., while a thick and porous top-coating is preferable for printing of source and drain electrodes with a silver particle ink, a thinner and less absorbing surface is required to form a functional semiconducting layer. With the multilayer coating structure concept developed in this work, it was possible to make the paper substrate suitable for printed functionality. The possibility of printing functional devices, such as transistors, sensors and pixels in a roll-to-roll process on paper is demonstrated which may enable introducing paper for use in disposable “onetime use” or “throwaway” electronics and sensors, such as lab-on-strip devices for various analyses, consumer packages equipped with product quality sensors or remote tracking devices.

Characterisation of waste for combustion : with special reference to the role of zinc

Waste combustion has gone from being a volume reducing discarding-method to an energy recovery process for unwanted material that cannot be reused or recycled. Different fractions of waste are used as fuel today, such as; municipal solid waste, refuse derived fuel, and solid recovered fuel. Furthermore, industrial waste, normally a mixture between commercial waste and building and demolition waste, is common, either as separate fuels or mixed with, for example, municipal solid waste. Compared to fossil or biomass fuels, waste mixtures are extremely heterogeneous, making it a complicated fuel. Differences in calorific values, ash content, moisture content, and changing levels of elements, such as Cl and alkali metals, are common in waste fuel. Moreover, waste contains much higher levels of troublesome trace elements, such as Zn, which is thought to accelerate a corrosion process. Varying fuel quality can be strenuous on the boiler system and may cause fouling and corrosion of heat exchanger surfaces. This thesis examines waste fuels and waste combustion from different angles, with the objective of giving a better understanding of waste as an important fuel in today’s fuel economy. Several chemical characterisation campaigns of waste fuels over longer time periods (10-12 months) was used to determine the fossil content of Swedish waste fuels, to investigate possible seasonal variations, and to study the presence of Zn in waste. Data from the characterisation campaigns were used for thermodynamic equilibrium calculations to follow trends and determine the effect of changing concentrations of various elements. The thesis also includes a study of the thermal behaviour of Zn and a full—scale study of how the bed temperature affects the volatilisation of alkali metals and Zn from the fuel. As mixed waste fuel contains considerable amounts of fresh biomass, such as wood, food waste, paper etc. it would be wrong to classify it as a fossil fuel. When Sweden introduced waste combustion as a part of the European Union emission trading system in the beginning of 2013 there was a need for combustion plants to find a usable and reliable method to determine the fossil content. Four different methods were studied in full-scale of seven combustion plants; 14Canalysis of solid waste, 14C-analysis of flue gas, sorting analysis followed by calculations, and a patented balance method that is using a software program to calculate the fossil content based on parameters from the plant. The study showed that approximately one third of the coal in Swedish waste mixtures has fossil origins and presented the plants with information about the four different methods and their advantages and disadvantages. Characterisation campaigns also showed that industrial waste contain higher levels of trace elements, such as Zn. The content of Zn in Swedish waste fuels was determined to be approximately 800 mg kg-1 on average, based on 42 samples of solid waste from seven different plants with varying mixtures between municipal solid waste and industrial waste. A review study of the occurrence of Zn in fuels confirmed that the highest amounts of Zn are present in waste fuels rather than in fossil or biomass fuels. In tires, Zn is used as a vulcanizing agent and can reach concentration values of 9600-16800 mg kg-1. Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment is the second Zn-richest fuel and even though on average Zn content is around 4000 mg kg-1, the values of over 19000 mg kg-1 were also reported. The increased amounts of Zn, 3000-4000 mg kg-1, are also found in municipal solid waste, sludge with over 2000 mg kg-1 on average (some exceptions up to 49000 mg kg-1), and other waste derived fuels (over 1000 mg kg-1). Zn is also found in fossil fuels. In coal, the average level of Zn is 100 mg kg-1, the higher amount of Zn was only reported for oil shale with values between 20-2680 mg kg-1. The content of Zn in biomass is basically determined by its natural occurrence and it is typically 10-100 mg kg-1. The thermal behaviour of Zn is of importance to understand the possible reactions taking place in the boiler. By using thermal analysis three common Zn-compounds were studied (ZnCl2, ZnSO4, and ZnO) and compared to phase diagrams produced with thermodynamic equilibrium calculations. The results of the study suggest that ZnCl2(s/l) cannot exist readily in the boiler due to its volatility at high temperatures and its conversion to ZnO in oxidising conditions. Also, ZnSO4 decomposes around 680°C, while ZnO is relatively stable in the temperature range prevailing in the boiler. Furthermore, by exposing ZnO to HCl in a hot environment (240-330°C) it was shown that chlorination of ZnO with HCl gas is possible. Waste fuel containing high levels of elements known to be corrosive, for example, Na and K in combination with Cl, and also significant amounts of trace elements, such as Zn, are demanding on the whole boiler system. A full-scale study of how the volatilisation of Na, K, and Zn is affected by the bed temperature in a fluidised bed boiler was performed parallel with a lab-scale study with the same conditions. The study showed that the fouling rate on deposit probes were decreased by 20 % when the bed temperature was decreased from 870°C to below 720°C. In addition, the lab-scale experiments clearly indicated that the amount of alkali metals and Zn volatilised depends on the reactor temperature.

Risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation

A trade-off between return and risk plays a central role in financial economics. The intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) proposed by Merton (1973) provides a neoclassical theory for expected returns on risky assets. The model assumes that risk-averse investors (seeking to maximize their expected utility of lifetime consumption) demand compensation for bearing systematic market risk and the risk of unfavorable shifts in the investment opportunity set. Although the ICAPM postulates a positive relation between the conditional expected market return and its conditional variance, the empirical evidence on the sign of the risk-return trade-off is conflicting. In contrast, autocorrelation in stock returns is one of the most consistent and robust findings in empirical finance. While autocorrelation is often interpreted as a violation of market efficiency, it can also reflect factors such as market microstructure or time-varying risk premia. This doctoral thesis investigates a relation between the mixed risk-return trade-off results and autocorrelation in stock returns. The results suggest that, in the case of the US stock market, the relative contribution of the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation in explaining the aggregate return fluctuates with volatility. This effect is then shown to be even more pronounced in the case of emerging stock markets. During high-volatility periods, expected returns can be described using rational (intertemporal) investors acting to maximize their expected utility. During lowvolatility periods, market-wide persistence in returns increases, leading to a failure of traditional equilibrium-model descriptions for expected returns. Consistent with this finding, traditional models yield conflicting evidence concerning the sign of the risk-return trade-off. The changing relevance of the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation can be explained by heterogeneous agents or, more generally, by the inadequacy of the neoclassical view on asset pricing with unboundedly rational investors and perfect market efficiency. In the latter case, the empirical results imply that the neoclassical view is valid only under certain market conditions. This offers an economic explanation as to why it has been so difficult to detect a positive tradeoff between the conditional mean and variance of the aggregate stock return. The results highlight the importance, especially in the case of emerging stock markets, of noting both the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation in applications that require estimates for expected returns.

Interdependence of International Stock Markets, European Government Bond Market and Gold Market

This thesis examines the interdependence of international stock markets (the USA, Europe, Japan, emerging markets, and frontier markets), European government bond market, and gold market during the 21st century. Special focus is on the dynamics of the correlations between the markets, as well as on, spillovers in mean returns and volatility. The mean return spillovers are examined on the basis of the bivariate VAR(1) model, whereas the bivariate BEKK-GARCH(1, 1) model is employed for the analysis of the volatility spillovers. In order to analyze the spillover effects in different market conditions, the full sample period from 2000 to 2013 is divided into the pre-crisis period (2000–2006) and the crisis period (2007–2013). The results indicate an increasing interdependence especially within international stock markets during the periods of financial turbulence, and are thus consistent with the existing literature. Hence, bond and gold markets provide the best diversification benefits for equity investors, particularly during the periods of market turmoil.

Currency Carry Trades – Excess Returns and Performance Optimization of G10 Currency Carry Trade Strategies during the Euro Era

This study examines the excess returns provided by G10 currency carry trading during the Euro era. The currency carry trade has been a popular trade throughout the past decades offering excess returns to investors. The thesis aims to contribute to existing research on the topic by utilizing a new set of data for the Euro era as well as using the Euro as a basis for the study. The focus of the thesis is specifically on different carry trade strategies’ performance, risk and diversification benefits. The study finds proof of the failure of the uncovered interest rate parity theory through multiple regression analyses. Furthermore, the research finds evidence of significant diversification benefits in terms of Sharpe ratio and improved return distributions. The results suggest that currency carry trades have offered excess returns during 1999-2014 and that volatility plays an important role in carry trade returns. The risk, however, is diversifiable and therefore our results support previous quantitative research findings on the topic.

Optiohinnoittelumallien empiirinen vertailu OMX 25 Helsinki -warranttimarkkinoilla

Tämän tutkimuksen tarkoituksena on selvittää pystytäänkö OMX 25 Helsinki kohde-etuusindeksin warranttien hintoja ennustamaan käyttämällä erilaisia optiohinnoittelumalleja. Tutkielman aineisto koostuu OMXH25-indeksiä seuraavien warranttien hinta-aikasarjatiedoista vuosilta 2009-2011. Tutkimuksessa käytettiin kolmea eri hinnoittelumallia warranttien hinnoitteluvirheiden tutkimiseen. Perinteistä Black-Scholes-hinnoittelumallia käytettiin siten, että warranttiaineistosta joh-dettu implisiittinen volatiliteetti regressoitiin maturiteetin ja toteutushinnan mu-kaan, jonka jälkeen regression perusteella valittiin kulloiseenkin tilanteeseen sopiva volatiliteettiestimaatti. Black-Scholes-mallin lisäksi tutkimuksessa käy-tettiin kahta GARCH-pohjaista optiohinnoittelumallia. Mallien estimoimia hin-toja verrattiin markkinoiden warranttihintoihin. Tulosten perusteella voitiin todeta, että mallit onnistuvat hinnoittelemaan war-rantteja paremmin lyhyen ajan päähän mallien kalibroinnista. Tulokset vaihte-livat suuresti eri vuosien välillä eikä minkään käytetyn mallin nähty suoriutu-van systemaattisesti muita malleja paremmin.

Apua Kekkoselle vai kansainvälisen politiikan sivutuote? Noottikriisin suomalainen kuva

Tutkimus käsittelee noottikriisin suomalaista kuvaa. Noottikriisi on saanut nimensä Neuvostoliiton Suomelle 30.10.1961 antamasta nootista, jonka mukaan Länsi-Saksan aseellinen varustautuminen aiheutti sellaisen sotilaallisen uhkan, että vuoden 1948 yya-sopimuksen mukaiset sotilaalliset konsultaatiot olivat perusteltuja. Presidentti Urho Kekkonen ja pääministeri Nikita Hruštšov sopivat kuitenkin runsaan kolmen viikon kuluttua, ettei niitä pidetä. Noottikriisi on ollut hyvin kiistanalainen. Eniten on erimielisyyttä aiheuttanut nootin motiivi. Siksi tämän tutkimuksen pääaiheena ovat sen tulkinnat suomalaisten kirjoittamissa painetuissa teksteissä nootin jättämisen jälkeisestä päivästä vuoteen 2013. Erimielisyys johtuu pääasiassa käsityksestä, että noottia ei lähetetty Länsi-Saksan aiheuttaman uhkan takia vaan Kekkosen auttamiseksi vuoden 1962 presidentinvaaleissa. Tätä tulkintaa yksinään tai yhdistettynä yhteen tai useampaa muuhun tekijään on myös kannatettu eniten. Kekkonenkin ilmaisi päiväkirjassaan, että tarkoituksena oli hänen tukemisensa. Julkisuudessa hän ei kuitenkaan sanonut koskaan niin eksplisiittisesti. Erityinen piirre ovat vaihtelut huomattavan monen akateemisenkin kirjoittajan tulkinnoissa. Sama koskee sanomalehtiä. Monet nimesivät jälkeenpäin nootin tarkoitukseksi Kekkosen auttamisen, vaikka olivat aluksi kirjoittaneet jotain muuta. Ilmiö paljastaa että sanomalehdet harjoittivat heti nootin saapumisen jälkeen itsesensuuria.

Commodity Future Price Premiums – Case EU ETS

The purpose of this thesis was to study commodity future price premiums and their nature on emission allowance markets. The EUA spot and future contracts traded on the secondary market during EU ETS Phase 2 and Phase 3 were selected for empirical testing. The cointegration of spot and future prices was examined with Johansen cointegration methodology. Daily interest rates with a similar tenor to the future contract maturity were used in the cost-of-carry model to calculate the theoretical future prices and to estimate the deviation from the fair value of future contracts, assumed to be explained by the convenience yield. The time-varying dependence of the convenience yield was studied by regression testing the correlation between convenience yield and the time to maturity of the future contract. The results indicated cointegration between spot and future prices, albeit depending on assumptions on linear trend and intercept in cointegration vector Dec-14 and Dec-15 contracts. The convenience yield correlates positively with the time-to-maturity of the future contract during Phase 2, but negatively during Phase 3. The convenience yield featured positive correlation with spot price volatility and negative correlation with future price volatility during both Phases 2 and 3.

Sähkönmyyntiyhtiön riskienhallinnan kehittäminen

Sähkönmyyntiyhtiön liiketoimintaan liittyy muiden yritysten toiminnan tavoin erilaisia riskejä. Riskit jaetaan operationaalisiin ja markkinariskeihin. Operationaalisia riskejä ovat esimerkiksi erilaiset henkilöstöön, tietojärjestelmiin tai operatiiviseen toimintaan liittyvät riskit. Sähkönmyyntiyhtiön liiketoimintaan kohdistuu myös erilaisia markkinariskejä, joihin tyypillisesti liittyy sekä voiton että tappion mahdollisuus. Sähkönmyyntiyhtiön liiketoimintaan liittyviä markkinariskejä ovat esimerkiksi volyymiriski, profiiliriski, hintariski ja johdannaisriski. Työssä käydään läpi myös muita markkinariskejä sekä pohditaan riskien suojautumiskeinoja. Markkinariskejä voidaan hallita useiden eri keinojen avulla. Tavallisimpia näistä ovat esimerkiksi johdannaisten ja peak- sekä profiilituotteiden hankkiminen, joiden avulla hallitaan markkinahintojen muutosten vaikutuksia liiketoiminnan tulokseen. Lisäksi yritys voi käyttää riskienhallintakeinoina monipuolista jälkilaskentaa sekä raportointia liiketoiminnan keskeisiltä osilta. Erityisesti riskienhallintakeinona käytetään erilaisia riskimittareita, joista Profit at Risk-riskimittarin katsottiin soveltuvan parhaiten sähkönmyyntiyhtiön riskienhallinnan tueksi. Riskienhallinnan kehityksen näkökulmasta yrityksen on syytä miettiä sopimusten hinnoitteluaan sekä suojausstrategiaansa.

Time Varying Conditional Correlation Between Stock And Bond Returns: Evidence From CIVETS Nations

This thesis estimates long-run time variant conditional correlation between stock and bond returns of CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, and South Africa) nations. Further, aims to analyse the presence of asymmetric volatility effect in both asset returns, as well as, obverses increment or decrement in conditional correlation during pre-crisis and crisis period, which lead to make a reliable diversification decision. The Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) GARCH model of Bollerslev (1990), the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) GARCH model (Engle 2002), and the Asymmetric Dynamic Conditional Correlation (ADCC) GARCH model of Cappiello, Engle, and Sheppard (2006) were implemented in the study. The analyses present strong evidence of time-varying conditional correlation in CIVETS markets, excluding Vietnam, during 2005-2013. In addition, negative innovation effects were found in both conditional variance and correlation of the asset returns. The results of this study recommend investors to include financial assets from these markets in portfolios, in order to obtain better stock-bond diversification benefits, especially during high volatility periods.

Lauhdevoimakapasiteetin ennenaikaisen poistumisen energiataloudelliset vaikutukset

Tässä diplomityössä on tutkittu lauhdekapasiteetin ennenaikaisen markkinoilta poistumisen energiataloudellisia vaikutuksia. Tarkastelu toteutettiin sähkömarkkinamallinnuksen avulla luomalla kaksi erilaista lauhdekapasiteettiskenaariota perustuen arvioituun lauhdekapasiteetin poistumiseen sekä vastavuoroisesti sen säilymiseen markkinoilla. Skenaarioiden vaikutuksia tutkittiin myös herkkyystarkasteluin ja tuloksia analysoitiin energiataloudellisesta näkökulmasta. Työn tavoitteena oli selvittää lauhdekapasiteetin ennenaikaisen poistumisen energiataloudellista kustannusta. Viime vuosien pitkittynyt talouden taantuma on hillinnyt kysynnän ennakoitua kehitystä johtaen alhaiseen sähkön markkinahintatasoon. Samalla tiukentuneet energiatuotannon ympäristövaatimukset asettavat investointirasitteita perinteisille voimalaitoksille heikentäen niiden taloudellisen kannattavuuden edellytyksiä. Markkinasähkön alhainen hintataso yhdessä investointirasitteiden kanssa asettaa haasteita etenkin usein rajatuotantomuotona toimiville lauhdelaitoksille. Alhaisen kannattavuuden seurauksena lauhdekapasiteettia arvioidaan poistuvan ennen teknisen käyttöiän täyttymistä markkinoilta merkittävästi lähivuosina. Kapasiteetin poistuminen kasvattaa oman tuotannon ja kysynnän välistä tehovajetta, minkä vuoksi sähköjärjestelmän nähdään tiukentuvan merkittävästi ennen rakenteilla olevan ydinvoimalaitoksen valmistumista. Työssä toteutettujen mallinnusten perusteella lauhdekapasiteetin väheneminen nostaa sähkön hintatasoa sekä lisää korkeiden hintapiikkien esiintymistä merkittävästi suhteessa korkeamman kapasiteetin tuloksiin. Sähköjärjestelmä on hyvin tiukka ennen rakenteilla olevan ydinvoimalaitoksen käyttöönottoa, minkä vuoksi lauhdekapasiteetin eroavaisuuksien vaikutukset ovat merkittävä etenkin poikkeuksellisen kylmänä vuotena. Lauhdekapasiteetin merkitys pienenee selvästi 2020-luvulla, kun oma tuotantokapasiteetti kasvaa. Työn tulosten perusteella lähivuosina alhaisemman lauhdekapasiteetin aiheuttama vuotuinen energiataloudellinen kustannus on huomattavasti korkeampi kuin laitosten kannattavan ylläpidon vaatima kustannus.