An idealized study of coupled atmosphere-ocean 4D-Var in the presence of model error

Atmosphere only and ocean only variational data assimilation (DA) schemes are able to use window lengths that are optimal for the error growth rate, non-linearity and observation density of the respective systems. Typical window lengths are 6-12 hours for the atmosphere and 2-10 days for the ocean. However, in the implementation of coupled DA schemes it has been necessary to match the window length of the ocean to that of the atmosphere, which may potentially sacrifice the accuracy of the ocean analysis in order to provide a more balanced coupled state. This paper investigates how extending the window length in the presence of model error affects both the analysis of the coupled state and the initialized forecast when using coupled DA with differing degrees of coupling. Results are illustrated using an idealized single column model of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. It is found that the analysis error from an uncoupled DA scheme can be smaller than that from a coupled analysis at the initial time, due to faster error growth in the coupled system. However, this does not necessarily lead to a more accurate forecast due to imbalances in the coupled state. Instead coupled DA is more able to update the initial state to reduce the impact of the model error on the accuracy of the forecast. The effect of model error is potentially most detrimental in the weakly coupled formulation due to the inconsistency between the coupled model used in the outer loop and uncoupled models used in the inner loop.

ON THE DOUBLE NATURED SOLUTIONS OF THE TWO-TEMPERATURE EXTERNAL SOFT PHOTON COMPTONIZED ACCRETION DISKS

We have analyzed pair production in the innermost region of a two-temperature external soft photon Comptonized accretion disk. We have shown that, if the viscosity parameter is greater than a critical value alpha(c), the solution to the disk equation is double valued: one, advection dominated, and the other, radiation dominated. When alpha <= alpha(c), the accretion rate has to satisfy (m) over dot(1) <= (m) over dot <= (m) over dot(c) in order to have two steady-state solutions. It is shown that these critical parameters (m) over dot(1), (m) over dot(c) are functions of r, alpha, and theta(e), and alpha(c) is a function of r and theta(e). Depending on the combination of the parameters, the advection-dominated solution may not be physically consistent. It is also shown that the electronic temperature is maximum at the onset of the thermal instability, from which results this inner region. These solutions are stable against perturbations in the electron temperature and in the density of pairs.

DETECTABILITY AND ERROR ESTIMATION IN ORBITAL FITS OF RESONANT EXTRASOLAR PLANETS

We estimate the conditions for detectability of two planets in a 2/1 mean-motion resonance from radial velocity data, as a function of their masses, number of observations and the signal-to-noise ratio. Even for a data set of the order of 100 observations and standard deviations of the order of a few meters per second, we find that Jovian-size resonant planets are difficult to detect if the masses of the planets differ by a factor larger than similar to 4. This is consistent with the present population of real exosystems in the 2/1 commensurability, most of which have resonant pairs with similar minimum masses, and could indicate that many other resonant systems exist, but are currently beyond the detectability limit. Furthermore, we analyze the error distribution in masses and orbital elements of orbital fits from synthetic data sets for resonant planets in the 2/1 commensurability. For various mass ratios and number of data points we find that the eccentricity of the outer planet is systematically overestimated, although the inner planet`s eccentricity suffers a much smaller effect. If the initial conditions correspond to small-amplitude oscillations around stable apsidal corotation resonances, the amplitudes estimated from the orbital fits are biased toward larger amplitudes, in accordance to results found in real resonant extrasolar systems.

Robust inference in an heteroscedastic measurement error model

In this paper we deal with robust inference in heteroscedastic measurement error models Rather than the normal distribution we postulate a Student t distribution for the observed variables Maximum likelihood estimates are computed numerically Consistent estimation of the asymptotic covariance matrices of the maximum likelihood and generalized least squares estimators is also discussed Three test statistics are proposed for testing hypotheses of interest with the asymptotic chi-square distribution which guarantees correct asymptotic significance levels Results of simulations and an application to a real data set are also reported (C) 2009 The Korean Statistical Society Published by Elsevier B V All rights reserved

Bayesian analysis of skew-t multivariate null intercept measurement error model

The multivariate skew-t distribution (J Multivar Anal 79:93-113, 2001; J R Stat Soc, Ser B 65:367-389, 2003; Statistics 37:359-363, 2003) includes the Student t, skew-Cauchy and Cauchy distributions as special cases and the normal and skew-normal ones as limiting cases. In this paper, we explore the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to develop a Bayesian analysis of repeated measures, pretest/post-test data, under multivariate null intercept measurement error model (J Biopharm Stat 13(4):763-771, 2003) where the random errors and the unobserved value of the covariate (latent variable) follows a Student t and skew-t distribution, respectively. The results and methods are numerically illustrated with an example in the field of dentistry.

Bayesian analysis for a skew extension of the multivariate null intercept measurement error model

Skew-normal distribution is a class of distributions that includes the normal distributions as a special case. In this paper, we explore the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to develop a Bayesian analysis in a multivariate, null intercept, measurement error model [R. Aoki, H. Bolfarine, J.A. Achcar, and D. Leao Pinto Jr, Bayesian analysis of a multivariate null intercept error-in -variables regression model, J. Biopharm. Stat. 13(4) (2003b), pp. 763-771] where the unobserved value of the covariate (latent variable) follows a skew-normal distribution. The results and methods are applied to a real dental clinical trial presented in [A. Hadgu and G. Koch, Application of generalized estimating equations to a dental randomized clinical trial, J. Biopharm. Stat. 9 (1999), pp. 161-178].

Synthesis of YAP nanopowder by a soft chemistry route

Polycrystalline fine powder of YAlO(3) (YAP) was synthesized by the modified polymeric precursor method. A preliminary gradual pyrolytic decomposition under nitrogen flux was crucial in the removal process of organic residues to avoid the formation of molecular level inhomogeneities. YAP single phase was crystallized at temperatures between 950 degrees C and 1000 degrees C using chemically homogeneous ball-milled amorphous particles and very fast heating rates, corresponding to the lowest synthesis temperature of pure YAP nanopowder by soft chemistry routes. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Synthesis optimization, structural evolution and optical properties of Y(0.9)Er(0.1)Al(3)(BO(3))(4) nanopowders obtained by soft chemistry methods

This paper describes the structural evolution of Y(0.9)Er(0.1)Al(3)(BO(3))(4) nanopowders using two soft chemistry routes, the sol-gel and the polymeric precursor methods. Differential scanning calorimetry, differential thermal analyses, thermogravimetric analyses, X-ray diffraction, Fourier-transform infrared, and Raman spectroscopy techniques have been used to study the chemical reactions between 700 and 1200 degrees C temperature range. From both methods the Y(0.9)Er(0.1)Al(3)(BO(3))(4) (Er:YAB) solid solution was obtained almost pure when the powdered samples were heat treated at 1150 degrees C. Based on the results, a schematic phase formation diagram of Er:YAB crystalline solid solution was proposed for powders from each method. The Er:YAB solid solution could be optimized by adding a small amount of boron oxide in excess to the Er:YAB nominal composition. The nanoparticles are obtained around 210 nm. Photoluminescence emission spectrum of the Er:YAB nanocrystalline powders was measured on the infrared region and the Stark components of the (4)I(13/2) and (4)I(15/2) levels were determined. Finally, for the first time the Raman spectrum of Y(0.9)Er(0.1)Al(3)(BO(3))(4) crystalline phase is also presented. (C) 2008 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Inference and local influence assessment in skew-normal null intercept measurement error model

In this article, we discuss inferential aspects of the measurement error regression models with null intercepts when the unknown quantity x (latent variable) follows a skew normal distribution. We examine first the maximum-likelihood approach to estimation via the EM algorithm by exploring statistical properties of the model considered. Then, the marginal likelihood, the score function and the observed information matrix of the observed quantities are presented allowing direct inference implementation. In order to discuss some diagnostics techniques in this type of models, we derive the appropriate matrices to assessing the local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes. The results and methods developed in this paper are illustrated considering part of a real data set used by Hadgu and Koch [1999, Application of generalized estimating equations to a dental randomized clinical trial. Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics, 9, 161-178].

A multivariate ultrastructural errors-in-variables model with equation error

This paper deals with asymptotic results on a multivariate ultrastructural errors-in-variables regression model with equation errors Sufficient conditions for attaining consistent estimators for model parameters are presented Asymptotic distributions for the line regression estimators are derived Applications to the elliptical class of distributions with two error assumptions are presented The model generalizes previous results aimed at univariate scenarios (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc All rights reserved

Bayesian estimation of regression parameters in elliptical measurement error models

The main object of this paper is to discuss the Bayes estimation of the regression coefficients in the elliptically distributed simple regression model with measurement errors. The posterior distribution for the line parameters is obtained in a closed form, considering the following: the ratio of the error variances is known, informative prior distribution for the error variance, and non-informative prior distributions for the regression coefficients and for the incidental parameters. We proved that the posterior distribution of the regression coefficients has at most two real modes. Situations with a single mode are more likely than those with two modes, especially in large samples. The precision of the modal estimators is studied by deriving the Hessian matrix, which although complicated can be computed numerically. The posterior mean is estimated by using the Gibbs sampling algorithm and approximations by normal distributions. The results are applied to a real data set and connections with results in the literature are reported. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Semiparametric Bayesian measurement error modeling

This work presents a Bayesian semiparametric approach for dealing with regression models where the covariate is measured with error. Given that (1) the error normality assumption is very restrictive, and (2) assuming a specific elliptical distribution for errors (Student-t for example), may be somewhat presumptuous; there is need for more flexible methods, in terms of assuming only symmetry of errors (admitting unknown kurtosis). In this sense, the main advantage of this extended Bayesian approach is the possibility of considering generalizations of the elliptical family of models by using Dirichlet process priors in dependent and independent situations. Conditional posterior distributions are implemented, allowing the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), to generate the posterior distributions. An interesting result shown is that the Dirichlet process prior is not updated in the case of the dependent elliptical model. Furthermore, an analysis of a real data set is reported to illustrate the usefulness of our approach, in dealing with outliers. Finally, semiparametric proposed models and parametric normal model are compared, graphically with the posterior distribution density of the coefficients. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Identification of genes associated with local aggressiveness and metastatic behavior in soft tissue tumors

Soft tissue tumors represent a group of neoplasia with different histologic and biological presentations varying from benign, locally confined to very aggressive and metastatic tumors. The molecular mechanisms responsible for such differences are still unknown. The understanding of these molecular alterations mechanism will be critical to discriminate patients who need systemic treatment from those that can be treated only locally and could also guide the development of new drugs` against this tumors. Using 102 tumor samples representing a large spectrum of these tumors, we performed expression profiling and defined differentially expression genes that are likely to be involved in tumors that are locally aggressive and in tumors with metastatic potential. We described a set of 12 genes (SNRPD3, MEGF9, SPTAN-1, AFAP1L2, ENDOD1, SERPIN5, ZWINTAS, TOP2A, UBE2C, ABCF1, MCM2, and ARL6IP5) showing opposite expression when these two conditions were compared. These genes are mainly related to cell-cell and cell-extracellular matrix interactions and cell proliferation and might represent helpful tools for a more precise classification and diagnosis as well as potential drug targets.

Multivariate measurement error models based on scale mixtures of the skew-normal distribution

Scale mixtures of the skew-normal (SMSN) distribution is a class of asymmetric thick-tailed distributions that includes the skew-normal (SN) distribution as a special case. The main advantage of these classes of distributions is that they are easy to simulate and have a nice hierarchical representation facilitating easy implementation of the expectation-maximization algorithm for the maximum-likelihood estimation. In this paper, we assume an SMSN distribution for the unobserved value of the covariates and a symmetric scale mixtures of the normal distribution for the error term of the model. This provides a robust alternative to parameter estimation in multivariate measurement error models. Specific distributions examined include univariate and multivariate versions of the SN, skew-t, skew-slash and skew-contaminated normal distributions. The results and methods are applied to a real data set.