Surveillance of dengue fever virus: a review of epidemiological models and early warning systems

Dengue fever is one of the world’s most important vector-borne diseases. The transmission area of this disease continues to expand due to many factors including urban sprawl, increased travel and global warming. Current preventative techniques are primarily based on controlling mosquito vectors as other prophylactic measures, such as a tetravalent vaccine are unlikely to be available in the foreseeable future. However, the continually increasing dengue incidence suggests that this strategy alone is not sufficient. Epidemiological models attempt to predict future outbreaks using information on the risk factors of the disease. Through a systematic literature review, this paper aims at analyzing the different modeling methods and their outputs in terms of accurately predicting disease outbreaks. We found that many previous studies have not sufficiently accounted for the spatio-temporal features of the disease in the modeling process. Yet with advances in technology, the ability to incorporate such information as well as the socio-environmental aspect allowed for its use as an early warning system, albeit limited geographically to a local scale.

Evaluating the effectiveness of heat warning systems : a systematic review of epidemiological evidence

Objectives To review the existing research on the effectiveness of heat warning systems (HWSs) in saving lives and reducing harm. Methods A systematic search of major databases was conducted, using “heat, heatwave, high temperature, hot temperature, OR hot climate” AND “warning system”. Results Fifteen articles were retrieved. Six studies asserted that fewer people died of excessive heat after HWS implementation. HWS was associated with reduction in ambulance use. One study estimated the benefits of HWS to be 468millionforsaving117livescomparedto210,000 costs of running the system. Eight studies showed that mere availability of HWS did not lead to behavioral changes. Perceived threat of heat dangers to self/others was the main factor related to heeding warnings and taking proper actions. However, costs and barriers associated with taking protective actions, such as costs of running air conditioners, were of significant concern particularly to the poor. Conclusions Research in this area is limited. Prospective designs applying health behavior theories should establish whether HWS can produce the health benefits they are purported to achieve by identifying the target vulnerable groups.

Phenotypical characterisation of the isolated Norfolk Island population focusing on epidemiological indicators of cardiovascular disease

Objectives Only 193 people from Pitcairn Island, all descended from 9 ‘Bounty’ mutineers and 12 Tahitian women, moved to the uninhabited Norfolk Island in 1856. Our objective was to assess the population of Norfolk Island, several thousand km off the eastern coast of Australia, as a genetic isolate of potential use for cardiovascular disease (CVD) gene mapping. Methods A total of 602 participants, approximately two thirds of the island’s present adult population, were characterized for a panel of CVD risk factors. Statistical power and heritability were calculated. Results Norfolk Islander’s possess an increased prevalence of hypertension, obesity and multiple CVD risk factors when compared to outbred Caucasian populations. 64% of the study participants were descendents of the island’s original founder population. Triglycerides, cholesterol, and blood pressures all had heritabilities above 0.2. Conclusions The Norfolk land population is a potentially useful genetic isolate for gene mapping studies aimed at identifying CVD risk factor quantitative trait loci (QTL).

The epidemiological modelling of major depressive disorder : application for the global burden of disease study 2010

Background Although the detrimental impact of major depressive disorder (MDD) at the individual level has been described, its global epidemiology remains unclear given limitations in the data. Here we present the modelled epidemiological profile of MDD dealing with heterogeneity in the data, enforcing internal consistency between epidemiological parameters and making estimates for world regions with no empirical data. These estimates were used to quantify the burden of MDD for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010). Method Analyses drew on data from our existing literature review of the epidemiology of MDD. DisMod-MR, the latest version of the generic disease modelling system redesigned as a Bayesian meta-regression tool, derived prevalence by age, year and sex for 21 regions. Prior epidemiological knowledge, study- and country-level covariates adjusted sub-optimal raw data. Results There were over 298 million cases of MDD globally at any point in time in 2010, with the highest proportion of cases occurring between 25 and 34 years. Global point prevalence was very similar across time (4.4% (95% uncertainty: 4.2–4.7%) in 1990, 4.4% (4.1–4.7%) in 2005 and 2010), but higher in females (5.5% (5.0–6.0%) compared to males (3.2% (3.0–3.6%) in 2010. Regions in conflict had higher prevalence than those with no conflict. The annual incidence of an episode of MDD followed a similar age and regional pattern to prevalence but was about one and a half times higher, consistent with an average duration of 37.7 weeks. Conclusion We were able to integrate available data, including those from high quality surveys and sub-optimal studies, into a model adjusting for known methodological sources of heterogeneity. We were also able to estimate the epidemiology of MDD in regions with no available data. This informed GBD 2010 and the public health field, with a clearer understanding of the global distribution of MDD.

Global variation in the prevalence and incidence of major depressive disorder : a systematic review of the epidemiological literature

Background Summarizing the epidemiology of major depressive disorder (MDD) at a global level is complicated by significant heterogeneity in the data. The aim of this study is to present a global summary of the prevalence and incidence of MDD, accounting for sources of bias, and dealing with heterogeneity. Findings are informing MDD burden quantification in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 Study. Method A systematic review of prevalence and incidence of MDD was undertaken. Electronic databases Medline, PsycINFO and EMBASE were searched. Community-representative studies adhering to suitable diagnostic nomenclature were included. A meta-regression was conducted to explore sources of heterogeneity in prevalence and guide the stratification of data in a meta-analysis. Results The literature search identified 116 prevalence and four incidence studies. Prevalence period, sex, year of study, depression subtype, survey instrument, age and region were significant determinants of prevalence, explaining 57.7% of the variability between studies. The global point prevalence of MDD, adjusting for methodological differences, was 4.7% (4.4–5.0%). The pooled annual incidence was 3.0% (2.4–3.8%), clearly at odds with the pooled prevalence estimates and the previously reported average duration of 30 weeks for an episode of MDD. Conclusions Our findings provide a comprehensive and up-to-date profile of the prevalence of MDD globally. Region and study methodology influenced the prevalence of MDD. This needs to be considered in the GBD 2010 study and in investigations into the ecological determinants of MDD. Good-quality estimates from low-/middle-income countries were sparse. More accurate data on incidence are also required.

Dietary elecrolytes and cyclosporine toxicity. Experimental studies in spontaneuosly hypertensive rats

Cyclosporine-A (CsA) is widely used after organ transplantation to prevent rejection and in the treatment of autoimmune diseases. Hypertension and nephrotoxicity are common side-effects of CsA. Studies in patients on the prevention of the side-effects of CsA are difficult to conduct because the patients often receive a combination of different drugs thus making study of the side-effects of a single drug impossible. A challenge in experimental studies has been the lack of an animal model in which the side-effects concomitantly occur. Epidemiological data show an association between sodium (Na) intake and blood pressure. There is also evidence on low dietary intake of magnesium (Mg) and potassium (K) and high blood pressure. Our study was designed to develop an experimental model to study the side-effects of CsA in spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHR). On high dietary sodium, CsA caused hypertension, left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH), narrowing of the coronary arteries, small myocardial infarctions, and proteinuria, reduced creatinine clearance and histopathological renal injury in SHR. Loss of Mg into the urine caused by CsA resulted in Mg depletion in the tissues. Renal excretion of dopamine was reduced and the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system was activated. We investigated the effects of dietary Mg and/or K and the calcium antagonist drug, isradipine, on the prevention of CsA toxicity. Dietary supplementation of Mg alone or in combination with K prevented from the deleterious pathophysiological and histopathological changes in the kidneys and the heart. K alone had little effect. Isradipine protected better than Mg from LVH, but the combination of isradipine and Mg was the most effective. Isradipine did not, however, protect against Mg loss. In our animal model, the combination of high dietary Na and treatment with CsA accelerated the development of the cardiovascular and renal changes clinically known as the side-effects of CsA. Dietary supplementation of Mg and K and reduction of Na intake and the calcium antagonist drug isradipine prevent from the deleterious effects of CsA.

Male eating disorders and related traits : Genetic epidemiological study in Finnish twins

The aim of this study was to deepen the understanding of eating disorders, body image dissatisfaction and related traits in males by examining the epidemiology and genetic epidemiology of these conditions in representative population-based twin samples. The sample of Study I included adolescent twins from FinnTwin12 cohorts born 1983 87 and assessed by a questionnaire at ages 14 y (N=2070 boys, N=2062 girls) and 17 y (N=1857 boys, N=1984 girls). Samples of Studies II-V consisted of young adult twins born 1974-79 from FinnTwin16 cohorts (Study II N=1245 men, Study III N=724 men, Study IV N=2122 men, Study V N=2426 women and N=1962 men), who were assessed by a questionnaire at the age 22-28 y. In addition, 49 men and 526 women were assessed by a diagnostic interview. The overall response rates for both twin cohorts in all studies were 80-90%. In boys, mainly genetic factors (82%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 72-92) explained the covariation of self-esteem between the ages 14 y and 17 y, whereas in girls, environmental factors (69%, 95% CI 43-93) were the largest contributors. Of young men, 30% experienced high muscle dissatisfaction, while 12% used or had used muscle building supplements and/or anabolic steroids on a regular basis. Muscle dissatisfaction exhibited a robust association with the indicators of mental distress and a genetic component (42%, 95% CI 23-59) for its liability in this population was found. The variation of muscle-building substance use was primarily explained by the environmental factors. The incidence rate of anorexia nervosa in males for the age of 10-24 y was 15.7 (95% CI 6.6-37.8) per 100 000 person-years, and its lifetime prevalence by the young adulthood was 0.24% (95% CI 0.03-0.44). All detected probands with anorexia nervosa had recovered from eating disorders, but suffered from substantial psychiatric comorbidity, which manifested also in their co-twins. Additionally, male co-twins of the probands displayed significant dissatisfaction with body musculature, a male-specific feature of body dysmorphic disorder. All probands were from twin pairs discordant for eating disorders. Of the five male probands with anorexia nervosa, only one was from an opposite-sex twin pair. Among women from the opposite-sex pairs, the prevalence of DSM-IV or broad anorexia nervosa was no significantly different compared to that of the women from monozygotic pairs or from dizygotic same-sex pairs. The prevalence of DSM-IV or broad bulimia nervosa did not differ in opposite- versus same-sex female twin individuals either. In both sexes, the overall profile of indicators on eating disorders was rather similar between individuals from opposite-sex and same-sex pairs. In adolescence, development of self-esteem was differently regulated in boys compared to girls: this finding may have far-reaching implications on the etiology of sex discrepancy of internalizing and externalizing disorders. In young men, muscle dissatisfaction and muscle building supplement/steroid use were relatively common. Muscle dissatisfaction was associated with marked psychological distress such as symptoms of depression and disordered eating. Both genetic and environmental factors explained muscle dissatisfaction in the population, but environmental factors appeared to best explain the use of muscle-building substances. In this study, anorexia nervosa in boys and young men from the general population was more common, transient and accompanied by more substantial co-morbidity than previously thought. Co-twins of the probands with anorexia nervosa displayed significant psychopathology such as male specific symptoms of body dysmorphic disorder, but none of them had had an eating disorder: taken together, these traits are suggestive for an endophenotype of anorexia nervosa in males. Little evidence was found on that the risk for anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, disordered eating or body dissatisfaction were associated with twin zygosity. Thus, it is unlikely that in utero femininization, masculinization or postnatal socialization according to the sex of the co-twin have a major influence on the later development of eating disorders or related traits.

Nicotine Dependence and Smoking Behaviour : A genetic and epidemiological study

The worldwide health burden caused by the tobacco epidemic highlights the importance of study-ing determinants of smoking behaviour and key factors sustaining nicotine dependence. Despite vast-ranging preventive efforts, smoking remains one of the most deleterious health behaviours, and its genetic and environmental factors warrant continuous investigation. The heritability of smoking behaviour and nicotine dependence has been suggested to be relatively high. Earlier smoking behaviour, nicotine dependence, socio-economic position and demographic factors have all been shown to be associated with smoking cessation. This thesis aimed to examine various aspects of smoking behaviour and nicotine dependence from an epidemiological and genetic per-spective. Data for Studies I and IV were obtained from the Older Finnish Twin Cohort, a postal health sur-vey conducted in 1975, 1981 and 1990 on same-sexed pairs and in 1996-1997 on male-female adult pairs. The number of ever-smoking participants was 8941 in Study I and 3069 in Study IV. Data for Studies II and III came from the Family Study of Cigarette Smoking - Vulnerability to Nicotine Addiction. This study is linked to the Older Finnish Twin Cohort with new data collec-tion during 2001-2006 that focused on smoking twin pairs and their family members. The meas-ures included intensive telephone interviews, blood samples and additional postal questionnaires. The numbers of ever-smoking participants was 1370 in Study II and 529 in Study III. Study I examined whether a genetic component underlies smoking behaviour among Finnish adults. Genetic factors were important in the amount smoked and smoking cessation, with about half of the phenotypic differences explained by genetic variance. A novel finding was that genetic influences on amount smoked and smoking cessation were largely independent of genetic influ-ences on age at initiation. This result has implications for defining phenotypes in the search for genes underlying smoking behaviour. Furthermore, even if smoking initiation is postponed to a later age, potential vulnerability to subsequent nicotine dependence cannot be completely inhib-ited. Study II investigated the effect of genetic and environmental factors on nicotine dependence, as measured by the novel multidimensional Nicotine Dependence Syndrome Scale (NDSS). This scale was validated in the Finnish data. The NDSS correlated highly with other established nico-tine dependence scales (FTND and DSM-IV), suggesting that this new scale would be a feasible and valid measure for identifying nicotine-dependent smokers among the ever-smoking popula-tion. About one-third of the phenotypic variation in nicotine dependence in this sample was ex-plained by genetic influences. Study III aimed at identifying chromosomal regions harbouring genes that influence smoking be-haviour and nicotine dependence. Linkage analysis of family data revealed that for smoker and nicotine dependence phenotypes as well as for co-morbidity between nicotine dependence and alcohol use signals on specific chromosome regions (chromosomes 2q33, 5q12, 5q34 7q21, 7q31, 10q25, 11p15, 20p13) exist. Results further support the hypothesis that smoking behaviour phe-notypes have a genetic background. Study IV examined associations of smoking behaviour, socio-economic position and transition of marital status with smoking cessation. Indicators of socio-economic position were important pre-dictors of smoking cessation even when adjusted for previous smoking behaviour. Getting married was associated with an increased probability of cessation in men, a finding confirmed among dis-cordant twin pairs. Thus, having a partner appears to have a positive impact on smoking cessation. In conclusion, nicotine dependence and smoking behaviour demonstrate significant genetic liabil-ity, but also substantial environmental influences among Finnish adults. Smoking initiation should be prevented or at least postponed to a later age. Although genetic factors are important in nicotine dependence and smoking behaviour, societal actions still have a primary role in tobacco control and smoking prevalence. Future studies should examine the complex interactions between genetic and environmental factors in nicotine dependence.

Molecular and epidemiological aspects of Streptococcus pyogenes disease in Finland: Severe infections and bacterial, non-necrotizing cellulitis

Streptococcus pyogenes (group A streptococcus) is an important human pathogen, causing a wide array of infections ranging in severity. The majority of S. pyogenes infections are mild upper respiratory tract or skin infections. Severe, invasive infections, such as bacteraemia, are relatively rare, but constitute a major global burden with a high mortality. Certain streptococcal types are associated with a more severe disease and higher mortality. Bacterial, non-necrotizing cellulitis and erysipelas are localised infections of the skin, and although they are usually not life-threatening, they have a tendency to recur and therefore cause substantial morbidity. Despite several efforts aimed at developing an effective and safe vaccine against S. pyogenes infections, no vaccine is yet available. In this study, the epidemiology of invasive S. pyogenes infections in Finland was described over a decade of national, population-based surveillance. Recent trends in incidence, outcome and bacterial types were investigated. The beta-haemolytic streptococci causing cellulitis and erysipelas infections in Finland were studied in a case-control study. Bacterial isolates were characterised using both conventional and molecular typing methods, such as the emm typing, which is the most widely used typing method for beta-haemolytic streptococci. The incidence of invasive S. pyogenes disease has had an increasing trend during the past ten years in Finland, especially from 2006 onwards. Age- and sex-specific differences in the incidence rate were identified, with men having a higher incidence than women, especially among persons aged 45-64 years. In contrast, more infections occurred in women aged 25-34 years than men. Seasonal patterns with occasional peaks during the midsummer and midwinter were observed. Differences in the predisposing factors and underlying conditions of patients may contribute to these distinctions. Case fatality associated with invasive S. pyogenes infections peaked in 2005 (12%) but remained at a reasonably low level (8% overall during 2004-2007) compared to that of other developed countries (mostly exceeding 10%). Changes in the prevalent emm types were associated with the observed increases in incidence and case fatality. In the case-control study, acute bacterial non-necrotizing cellulitis was caused predominantly by Streptococcus dysgalactiae subsp. equisimilis, instead of S. pyogenes. The recurrent nature of cellulitis became evident. This study adds to our understanding of S. pyogenes infections in Finland and provides a basis for comparison to other countries and future trends. emm type surveillance and outcome analyses remain important for detecting such changes in type distribution that might lead to increases in incidence and case fatality. Bacterial characterisation serves as a basis for disease pathogenesis studies and vaccine development.

Genotyping for genetic association studies: Methods and applications

In this thesis, two separate single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping techniques were set up at the Finnish Genome Center, pooled genotyping was evaluated as a screening method for large-scale association studies, and finally, the former approaches were used to identify genetic factors predisposing to two distinct complex diseases by utilizing large epidemiological cohorts and also taking environmental factors into account. The first genotyping platform was based on traditional but improved restriction-fragment-length-polymorphism (RFLP) utilizing 384-microtiter well plates, multiplexing, small reaction volumes (5 µl), and automated genotype calling. We participated in the development of the second genotyping method, based on single nucleotide primer extension (SNuPeTM by Amersham Biosciences), by carrying out the alpha- and beta tests for the chemistry and the allele-calling software. Both techniques proved to be accurate, reliable, and suitable for projects with thousands of samples and tens of markers. Pooled genotyping (genotyping of pooled instead of individual DNA samples) was evaluated with Sequenom s MassArray MALDI-TOF, in addition to SNuPeTM and PCR-RFLP techniques. We used MassArray mainly as a point of comparison, because it is known to be well suited for pooled genotyping. All three methods were shown to be accurate, the standard deviations between measurements being 0.017 for the MassArray, 0.022 for the PCR-RFLP, and 0.026 for the SNuPeTM. The largest source of error in the process of pooled genotyping was shown to be the volumetric error, i.e., the preparation of pools. We also demonstrated that it would have been possible to narrow down the genetic locus underlying congenital chloride diarrhea (CLD), an autosomal recessive disorder, by using the pooling technique instead of genotyping individual samples. Although the approach seems to be well suited for traditional case-control studies, it is difficult to apply if any kind of stratification based on environmental factors is needed. Therefore we chose to continue with individual genotyping in the following association studies. Samples in the two separate large epidemiological cohorts were genotyped with the PCR-RFLP and SNuPeTM techniques. The first of these association studies concerned various pregnancy complications among 100,000 consecutive pregnancies in Finland, of which we genotyped 2292 patients and controls, in addition to a population sample of 644 blood donors, with 7 polymorphisms in the potentially thrombotic genes. In this thesis, the analysis of a sub-study of pregnancy-related venous thromboses was included. We showed that the impact of factor V Leiden polymorphism on pregnancy-related venous thrombosis, but not the other tested polymorphisms, was fairly large (odds ratio 11.6; 95% CI 3.6-33.6), and increased multiplicatively when combined with other risk factors such as obesity or advanced age. Owing to our study design, we were also able to estimate the risks at the population level. The second epidemiological cohort was the Helsinki Birth Cohort of men and women who were born during 1924-1933 in Helsinki. The aim was to identify genetic factors that might modify the well known link between small birth size and adult metabolic diseases, such as type 2 diabetes and impaired glucose tolerance. Among ~500 individuals with detailed birth measurements and current metabolic profile, we found that an insertion/deletion polymorphism of the angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) gene was associated with the duration of gestation, and weight and length at birth. Interestingly, the ACE insertion allele was also associated with higher indices of insulin secretion (p=0.0004) in adult life, but only among individuals who were born small (those among the lowest third of birth weight). Likewise, low birth weight was associated with higher indices of insulin secretion (p=0.003), but only among carriers of the ACE insertion allele. The association with birth measurements was also found with a common haplotype of the glucocorticoid receptor (GR) gene. Furthermore, the association between short length at birth and adult impaired glucose tolerance was confined to carriers of this haplotype (p=0.007). These associations exemplify the interaction between environmental factors and genotype, which, possibly due to altered gene expression, predisposes to complex metabolic diseases. Indeed, we showed that the common GR gene haplotype associated with reduced mRNA expression in thymus of three individuals (p=0.0002).

Amyloid diseases at old age : a pathological, epidemiological, and genetic study

Along with the increased life span of individuals, the burden of old age-associated diseases has inevitably increased. Alzheimer s disease (AD), probably the most well known geriatric disease, belongs to the old age-associated amyloid diseases. The purpose of this study was to investigate the frequency, genetic and health-associated risk factors, mutual association, and amyloid proteins in two old age-associated amyloid disorders senile systemic amyloidosis (SSA) and cerebral amyloid angiopathy (CAA) as part of the prospective population-based Vantaa 85+ autopsy study on a Finnish population aged 85 years or more (Studies I-III), completed with a case report on a patient with advanced AGel amyloidosis (Study IV). The numbers of patients investigated in the studies (I-III) were 256, 74, and 63, respectively. The diagnosis and grading of amyloid were based upon histological examination of tissue samples obtained post mortem and stained with Congo red. The amyloid fibril and associated proteins were characterized by immunohistochemical staining methods. The genotype frequencies of 20 polymorphisms in 9 genes and information on health-associated risk factors in subjects with and without SSA and CAA were compared. In a Finnish population ≥ 95 years of age, SSA and CAA occurred in 36% and 49% of the subjects, respectively. In total, two-thirds of these very elderly individuals had SSA, CAA, or both. However, in only 14% of the population these two conditions co-occurred. In subjects 85 years or older, the prevalence of SSA was 25%. In this population, SSA was associated with age at the time of death (p=0.002), myocardial infarctions (MIs; p=0.004), the G/G (Val/Val) genotype of the exon 24 polymorphism in the alpha2-macroglobulin (α2M) gene (p=0.042) and with the H2 haplotype of the tau gene (p=0.016). In contrast, the presence of CAA was strongly associated with APOE e4 (p=0.0003), with histopathological AD (p=0.0005), and with clinical dementia (p=0.01) in both e4+ (p=0.02) and e4- (p=0.06) individuals. Apart from demonstrating the amyloid fibril proteins, complement proteins 3d (C3d) and 9 (C9) were detected in the amyloid deposits of CAA and AGel amyloidosis, and α2M protein was found in fibrous scar tissue close to SSA. In conclusion, this first population based study on SSA shows that both SSA and CAA are common in very elderly individuals. Old age, MIs, the exon 24 polymorphism of the α2M gene, and H1/H2 polymorphism of the tau gene associate with SSA while clinical dementia and APOE ε4 genotype associate with CAA. The high prevalence of CAA, combined with its association with clinical dementia independent of APOE genotype, neuropathological AD, or SSA, also highlights its clinical significance in the very aged, among which the serious end stage complications of CAA, namely multiple infarctions and hemorrhages, are rare. The report on a patient having advanced AGel amyloidosis added knowledge on the disease and showed that this generally benign condition occasionally may lead to death. Further studies are warranted to confirm the findings in other populations. Also, the role of α2M and tau in the pathogenesis of SSA and the involvement of complement in the process of amyloid beta (Aβ) protein elimination from the brain remain to be clarified. Finally, the high prevalence of SSA in the elderly raises the need for prospective clinical studies to define its clinical significance.

Prevalence and determinants of respiratory symptoms, asthma, chronic bronchitis and allergic sensitization in Helsinki : A comparison between Finland, Sweden and Estonia. The FinEsS studies - Helsinki I

Objectives: To assess the prevalence and risk factor profiles of respiratory symptoms, asthma and chronic bronchitis in Helsinki, and to compare these results with those for Sweden and Estonia. Other important aims were to evaluate the prevalence and determinants of type 1 sensitization in Helsinki. Materials and methods: This presentation is a part of a large epidemiological study in Finland, Estonia and Sweden (FinEsS). The first part of the study consisted of a postal questionnaire in 1995-1996 distributed to subjects in eight study centres. The study population in each centre was a population-based random sample designed to be representative of the general population. The original study sample in Helsinki consisted of 8000 subjects aged 20-69 years, 6062 (76%) of whom participated. Comparisons between countries were based on a narrower age group, 20-64 years, since 64 years was the upper age limit used in the original study in Estonia. Thus, altogether 58 661 subjects aged 20-64 years were invited to participate in Finland, Sweden and Estonia, and 44 483 (76%) did so. The second part of the study was a clinical study with a structured interview, lung function measurements and skin-prick tests with 15 common allergens. This thesis reports only the results of the prick tests in Helsinki. Of the 1200 subjects invited to participate in Helsinki, 643 (54%) consented. Skin-prick tests were performed on subjects ≤ 60 years of age; thus, a total of 498 tests were done. Results: In Helsinki, the prevalence of physician-diagnosed asthma was 6.6% and of physician-diagnosed chronic bronchitis 3.7% among subjects aged 20-69 years. Comparison of the results between Finland, Sweden and Estonia in subjects 20-64 years of age revealed the highest prevalence of physician-diagnosed asthma in Sweden, 7.8%, while the prevalence in Finland was 5.9% and in Estonia 2.0% (p<0.001). The prevalence of physician-diagnosed asthma among those aged 20-29 years was 7.9% in Stockholm, 6.3% in Helsinki and 2.8% in Tallinn. Asthma-related symptoms were most common in Estonia, and among those with typical asthma symptoms the diagnosis of asthma was least likely in Estonia. Physician-diagnosed chronic bronchitis was reported to be 10.7% in Estonia, 3.1% in Sweden and 2.9% in Finland among subjects aged 20-64 years (p<0.001). Among those aged 20-29 years, 7.6% in Tallinn reported physician-diagnosed chronic bronchitis, while the prevalence estimates were 1.4% in Stockholm and 1.3% in Helsinki. The prevalence of smoking was similar for women in all three countries, around 30%, but large differences in smoking habits were present among men; 60% of Estonian, 39% of Finnish and 28% of Swedish men smoked. Skin-prick tests in Helsinki revealed a high prevalence of sensitization, 46.9%. For subjects aged 26-39 years, the prevalence was highest, 56.8%, and 23.7% were sensitized to at least four allergens. The most common sensitizing allergen was the dog. Sensitization to multiple allergens was associated with a high prevalence of asthma and allergic rhinitis. Conclusions: Compared with earlier Finnish studies, a higher prevalence of asthma and a lower prevalence of chronic bronchitis were found in Helsinki. The prevalence of physician-diagnosed chronic bronchitis was low in Helsinki, with only one-fifth of subjects fulfilling the symptom criteria for chronic bronchitis reporting having a diagnosis of chronic bronchitis. The prevalences of asthma and chronic bronchitis were similar in Finland and Sweden, but in Estonia physician-diagnosed asthma was less common and physician-diagnosed chronic bronchitis more common, particularly among young subjects. Further analyses revealed that the diagnosis of asthma was favoured in Finland and Sweden, while the diagnosis of chronic bronchitis was more likely in Estonia for subjects with the same symptoms. Allergic sensitization was common in Helsinki. Our findings of multiple sensitization also speak in favour of evaluating the degree of sensitization when assessing allergies.

Epidemiological study of oesophageal and gastric cancer in south-east England

Background: This epidemiological study was carried out to establish the magnitude of the changing incidence of gastric and oesophageal cancer. Methods: Time-trend analyses of subsite-specific cancers of the oesophagus and stomach were performed using data from the Thames Cancer Registry database (1960-1996) for the South Thames Region. The changes in sex ratio and peak age of incidence are reported. Results: In the upper two-thirds of the oesophagus there was no significant change in the incidence rate, but the lower third of the oesophagus showed a marked rise for both sexes (average annual change + 0.05 for men, + 0.009 for women). For the gastric cardia, the incidence in males increased (average annual change + 0.025), while in females it remained unchanged. Cancers of the oesophagogastric junction showed a clear increase for both sexes (average annual change + 0.07 for men, + 0.009 for women). There were changes in the sex ratio and peak age of incidence for all subsite cancers for both sexes. Conclusion: Over a 37-year period the incidence of cancer of the oesophagogastric junction increased threefold, while the incidence of cancers of the other subsites of the stomach decreased. Further studies are needed to investigate the aetiology of these changes.

The fall of kinship - towards an epidemiological explanation

Kinship used to be described as what anthropologists do. Today, many might well say that it is what anthropologists do not do. One possible explanation is that the notion of kinship fell off anthropology's radar due to the criticisms raised by Needham and Schneider among others, which supposedly demonstrated that kinship is not a sound theoretical concept. Drawing inspiration from epidemiological approaches to cultural phenomena, this article aims to enrich this explanation. Kinship became an unattractive theoretical concept in the subculture of anthropology not simply because of problems with kinship theory per se, but also on account of fundamental changes in the very conception of anthropological knowledge and the impact of these changes on the personal identity of anthropologists.