Methods for Measuring Aggregate Costs of Conflict

This paper reviews the methods for measuring the economic cost of conflict. Estimating the economic costs of conflict requires a counterfactual calculation, which makes this a very difficult task. Social researchers have resorted to different estimation methods depending on the particular effect in question. The method used in each case depends on the units being analyzed (firms, sectors, regions or countries), the outcome variable under study (aggregate output, market valuation of firms, market shares, etc.) and data availability (a single cross-section, time series or panel data). This paper reviews existing methods used in the literature to assess the economic impact of conflict: cost accounting, cross-section methods, time series methods, panel data methods, gravity models, event studies, natural experiments and comparative case studies. The paper ends with a discussion of cost estimates and directions for further research.

El Centro Kursaal y su impacto económico: un contraste metodológico

[ES] Este trabajo trata de analizar y evaluar el impacto económico y valor añadido que la actividad cultural que se realiza en torno al Kursaal genera en Donostia y en Guipúzcoa en general.

Tropical river fisheries valuation: background papers to a global synthesis

This report is a compilation of five regional reviews that document the global status of tropical rivers and inland fisheries in three continents: Latin America, Africa and Asia. It explores the role of ‘valuation’ methods and their contribution to policy-making and river fishery management. From the compilation, the best estimate of the global value of inland fisheries for those three continents is US$ 5.58 billion (gross market value), which is equivalent to 19 percent of the current value of annual fish exports from developing countries (US$ 29 billion) for 2004. The compilation shows that there is a general shortage of information on inland fisheries, especially derived from conventional economic valuation methods, though information from economic impact assessment methods and socio-economic and livelihood analysis methods is more widely available. The status of knowledge about the impact of changes in river management on the value of tropical river fisheries is weak and patchy. Although the impacts of large dams on the hydrology, ecology and livelihood support attributes of tropical rivers are well-recognized, there have been only few valuation studies of these issues. The document highlights the need for further valuation studies of tropical river and inland fisheries in developing countries. It underlines how vital it is for policy-makers and other stakeholders to understand the importance of these natural resources in order to make appropriate decisions concerning their role in development policy and illustrates why capacity building in valuation should become a major priority for agencies concerned with fisheries management and policy-making.

Review of river fisheries valuation in West and Central Africa

This paper provides a review of the valuation of river fisheries in West and Central Africa. It is the general perception that, compared to the biological and ecological aspects of river fisheries, this particular subject area has received relatively little attention. Economic valuation is concerned with finding expression for what is important in life for human society. It should, therefore, be a central and integral part of government decision-making and policy. The review started with concepts and methods for valuation. Three main types of valuation techniques were identified: conventional economic valuations, economic impact assessments and socioeconomic investigations, and livelihood analysis. On the basis of a literature review, valuation information was then synthesized for the major regional river basins and large lakes, and also used to develop a series of national fisheries profiles. To supplement this broad perspective, a series of case studies are also presented, which focus in particular on the impact of changes in water management regime. Finally, the paper presents an assessment of the three main types of valuation methodology and a set of conclusions and recommendations for future valuation studies.

Review of river fisheries valuation in Central and South America

Unlike Africa and Asia, where a large part of the population are heavily dependent upon fishing for their livelihoods, fishing for a living in the interior of Central and South America (CSA) remains a marginal occupation for all but the most isolated of families. As such, the economics and management of fisheries on the continent have received little attention from within the continent and the rest of the world. This study shows that while a number of studies have been carried out on fishing in the region, they tend to be limited in their geographical focus and time scale. Although fishing of freshwater species may appear to be comparatively insignificant in the region, the rivers of CSA are very important. This report attempts to analyze the literature available on CSA river fisheries and attempts to draw out an economic value of these fisheries. It is divided into a number of sections. First, the authors describe the major river basins on the continent, characterize their fisheries, and place freshwater fisheries in CSA into a global context. Second, the authors provide a review of valuation techniques for fisheries and use this analytical framework to review the principal literature on freshwater fisheries in the region. Then they turn their attention to the economic impact of dams and water abstraction schemes, reviewing the available literature to ascertain how/if economic values are computed for the impact on fisheries. Finally, they offer some conclusions and recommendations on the direction for future studies of freshwater fisheries in CSA.

Can the change in the composition of the US GDP explain the Great Moderation? A test via oil price shocks

The paper investigates whether the growing GDP share of the services sector can contribute to explain the great moderation in the US. We identify and analyze three oil price shocks and use a SVAR analysis to measure their economic impact on the US economy at both the aggregate and the sectoral level. We find mixed support for the explanation of the great moderation in terms of shrinking oil shock volatilities and observe that increases (decreases) in oil shock volatilities are contrasted by a weakening (strengthening) in their transmission mechanism. Across sectors, services are the least affected by any oil shock. As the contribution of services to the GDP volatility increases over time, we conclude that a composition effect contributed to moderate the conditional volatility to oil shocks of the US GDP.

Ganadería, trasterminancia y trashumancia en los territorios vascos en el tránsito del medievo a la modernidad (siglos XV y XVI)

[ES] El presente artículo pretende aportar nuevos datos sobre la ganadería en los territorios vascos durante la Edad Moderna. Ante todo se trata de romper con falsos paradigmas que se han venido repitiendo durante largo tiempo, aportando datos inéditos. Los clásicos de la historiografía vasca siempre han recalcado el carácter rural y agrario de la economía vasca; a pesar de ello, actividades como la ganadería jamás han ocupado un espacio primordial como objeto de estudio entre los historiadores, que en muchos casos han aceptado las teorías de etnógrafos y antropólogos sin contrastarlas. La ganadería en tierras vascas siguió modelos cantábricos, que ya vienen siendo estudiados desde algunas décadas por los historiadores gallegos, asturianos o cántabros; escuelas que han establecido nuevas metodologías para el estudio de la ganadería, las cabañas predominantes, el régimen de explotación, su impacto económico, etc., y cuyo ejemplo desgraciadamente no ha sido secundado en el caso vasco.

A manual of previously recorded non-indigenous invasive and native transplanted animal species of the Laurentian Great Lakes and coastal United States

This manual presents geographic information by state of occurrence, and descriptions of the socio-economic impact created by the invasion of non-indigenous and native transplanted animal species in the Laurentian Great Lakes and the coastal waters of the United States. It is not a comprehensive literature review, but rather is intended as a primer for those unfamiliar with the socio-economic impacts of invasive aquatic and marine animals. Readers should also note that the information contained in this manual is current as of its publication date. New information and new species are routinely being added to the wider literature base. Most of the information was gathered from a number of web sites maintained by government agencies, commissions, academic institutions and museums. Additional information was taken from the primary and secondary literature. This manual focuses on socio-economic consequences of invasive species. Thus, ecological impacts, when noted in the literature, are not discussed unless a connection to socio-economic factors can be made. For a majority of the species listed, either the impact of their invasion is not understood, or it is not published in sources surveyed. In the species summaries, sources of information are cited except for information from the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Nonindigenous Aquatic Species Database http://nas.er.usgs.gov. This website formed the base information used in creating tables on geographic distribution, and in many of the species summaries provided. Thus, whenever information is given without specific author/source and date citation, it has come from this comprehensive source. (PDF contains 90 pages)

Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary Area to be Avoided (ATBA) Education and Monitoring Program

The National Marine Sanctuaries Act (16 U.S.C. 1431, as amended) gives the Secretary of Commerce the authority to designate discrete areas of the marine environment as National Marine Sanctuaries and provides the authority to promulgate regulations to provide for the conservation and management of these marine areas. The waters of the Outer Washington Coast were recognized for their high natural resource and human use values and placed on the National Marine Sanctuary Program Site Evaluation List in 1983. In 1988, Congress directed NOAA to designate the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary (Pub. L. 100-627). The Sanctuary, designated in May 1994, worked with the U.S. Coast Guard to request the International Maritime Organization designate an Area to be Avoided (ATBA) on the Olympic Coast. The IMO defines an ATBA as "a routeing measure comprising an area within defined limits in which either navigation is particularly hazardous or it is exceptionally important to avoid casualties and which should be avoided by all ships, or certain classes of ships" (IMO, 1991). This ATBA was adopted in December 1994 by the Maritime Safety Committee of the IMO, “in order to reduce the risk of marine casualty and resulting pollution and damage to the environment of the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary”, (IMO, 1994). The ATBA went into effect in June 1995 and advises operators of vessels carrying petroleum and/or hazardous materials to maintain a 25-mile buffer from the coast. Since that time, Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary (OCNMS) has created an education and monitoring program with the goal of ensuring the successful implementation of the ATBA. The Sanctuary enlisted the aid of the U.S. and Canadian coast guards, and the marine industry to educate mariners about the ATBA and to use existing radar data to monitor compliance. Sanctuary monitoring efforts have targeted education on tank vessels observed transiting the ATBA. OCNMS's monitoring efforts allow quantitative evaluation of this voluntary measure. Finally, the tools developed to monitor the ATBA are also used for the more general purpose of monitoring vessel traffic within the Sanctuary. While the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary does not currently regulate vessel traffic, such regulations are within the scope of the Sanctuary’s Final Environmental Impact Statement/Management Plan. Sanctuary staff participate in ongoing maritime and environmental safety initiatives and continually seek opportunities to mitigate risks from marine shipping.(PDF contains 44 pages.)

Simulierte Auswirkungen des mehrjährigen Bewirtschaftungsplans für die Dorschfischerei in der westlichen Ostsee und die Möglichkeit einer technischen Alternative

The cod stock in the Western Baltic Sea is assessed to be overfished regarding the definitions of the UN World Summit on Sustainable Development at Johannesburg in 2002. Thus, the European Fisheries Council enforced a multi-annual management plan in 2007. Our medium term simulations over the future 10 years assume similar stock productivity as compared with the past four decades and indicate that the goals of the management plan can be achieved through TAC and consistent effort regulations. Taking account of the uncertainty in the recruitment patterns, the target average fishing mortality of age groups 3 – 6 years of F = 0.6 per year as defined in the management plan is indicated to exceed sustainable levels consistent with high long term yields and low risk of depletion. The stipulated constraint of the annual TAC variations of ±15% will dominate future fisheries management and implies a high recovery potential of the stock through continued reductions in fishing mortality. The scientific assessment of sustainable levels of exploitation and consideration in the plan is strongly advised, taking account of uncertainties attributed to environmental and biological effects. We recommend our study to be complemented with economic impact assessments including effects on by-catch species, which have been disregarded in this study. It is further demonstrated, that the goals of the management plan can alternatively be achieved by mesh size adaptations. An alternative technical option of mesh size increases to realize the required reductions in fishing mortality provides avoidance of discards of undersized fish after a few years by means of improved selectivity, another important element of the Common Fisheries Policy. However, it is emphasized that technical regulations since 1990 failed to affect the by-catch and discards of juvenile cod. In any way, the meaningful implementation of the multiannual management plan through stringent control and enforcement appears critical.

Low Climate Stabilisation under Diverse Growth and Convergence Scenarios

4 p.

Households WTP for the Reliability of Gas Supply

26 p.

Low Climate Stabilisation under Diverse Growth and Convergence Scenarios

9 p.

Climate change impacts on the water services in Costa Rica: a production function for the hydroenergy sector

23 p.

Impacto da campanha de vacinação para influenza em uma empresa

A influenza é uma das doenças respiratórias agudas mais prevalentes e importante causa de absenteísmo e presenteísmo. Entretanto, a eficácia vacinal para influenza pode alcançar 80% quando há elevada correspondência entre cepas vacinais e circulantes. Por este motivo, a empresa há anos promove campanha de vacinação, contudo, sem estimar sua efetividade (eficácia na redução da carga da doença) e o impacto econômico (produtividade) para o aprimoramento de sua política de saúde ocupacional. Considerou-se que a efetividade da campanha seria determinada pela eficácia vacinal previamente demonstrada em estudos randomizados, pelo grau de acurácia diagnóstica ou de triagem dos casos, pelo nível de adesão do profissional de saúde ao registro no prontuário e do paciente ao informar a ocorrência dos sintomas e pela cobertura vacinal alcançada. Com os objetivos de avaliar a efetividade e impacto econômico da campanha de vacinação para influenza, optou-se por um desenho estudo observacional de coorte histórico com características de estudo de intervenção baseado em dados históricos da campanha de 2008 e informações individuais sobre a frequência de sintomas respiratórios e absenteísmo, idade, gênero, função (administrativa e operacional) e renda, comorbidades relevantes e tabagismo, obtidas mediante revisão de prontuário dos 12 meses subsequentes, comparadas entre os grupos de vacinados e não-vacinados (qui-quadrado e test t) e analisadas por regressão logística, e estimada a fração prevenível (proporção de episódios potenciais de influenza evitados pela vacinação). Foram analisados os prontuários de 2.425 trabalhadores (1.651 não-vacinados e 754 vacinados) correspondendo à cobertura de 31,1%. A prevalência de influenza observada foi de 10,4% e a vacinação foi efetiva entre os trabalhadores (RR=0,51; IC95% 39-67), quando considerados os sintomas de alta probabilidade de influenza. A fração prevenível foi 0,09 (9 casos evitados a cada 100 trabalhadores vacinados). A campanha de vacinação foi mais efetiva e provocou maior impacto econômico entre os trabalhadores em regime operacional.