El proceso de securitización del problema de las drogas por parte de Estados Unidos como dinamizador de las relaciones con Colombia

Este documento surge de la pregunta ¿por qué a pesar de los costos y los inconcluyentes resultados de la guerra contra las drogas, ésta se ha mantenido por más de 40 años? El texto analiza los factores que motivaron a Estados Unidos a iniciar un proceso de construcción discursiva para transformar el problema de las drogas en una amenaza a la seguridad nacional de ese país y del mundo, y cómo Colombia ha aprovechado esa situación para redefinir constantemente su identidad nacional e impulsar sus intereses. La aproximación al problema de las drogas se desarrolla desde la perspectiva del proceso de securitización y desde la óptica de la búsqueda de los intereses nacionales, soportada sobre la base teórica del constructivismo. Desde esa perspectiva, se evidencia cómo la construcción de la guerra contra las drogas ha dependido de la identidad (personalidad) de los Estados, de las políticas e intereses de sus gobernantes, pero también de elementos propios del contexto histórico que han potenciado su desarrollo. Finaliza con el planteamiento de un posible proceso de des-secutiritización del problema de las drogas.

El rol del Centro de Estudios Estratégicos de Defensa de la Unión de Naciones Suramericanas en la formación de un pensamiento estratégico regional

El presente estudio de caso analiza los aportes del Centro de Estudios Estratégicos de Defensa (CEED) de la Unión de Naciones Suramericanas (Unasur) en la formación de un pensamiento estratégico regional. Cuatro años han transcurrido desde la creación de dicho Centro, por lo que resulta pertinente estudiar sus principales logros y los aportes realizados al Consejo de Defensa Suramericano (CDS) para la formación de un pensamiento estratégico regional en materia de seguridad y defensa.

La Organización de Cooperación de Shanghái (OCS): ¿una alianza estratégica Sino-Rusa para el control de Asia Central? (2001-2014)

La presente monografía pretende analizar en qué medida el co-liderazgo sino-ruso de la Organización de Cooperación de Shanghái puede condicionar la hegemonía estadounidense en Asia Central. Esta investigación defiende que los objetivos del co-liderazgo sino-ruso de la OCS - garantizar un orden multipolar del Sistema Internacional; obtener el acceso, control y explotación de los recursos (naturales, minerales e hídricos); disminuir la influencia política y militar de Estados Unidos en dicho pivote geopolítico - evidencian una contraposición al código geopolítico estadounidense en Asia Central, lo cual genera un limitante a su proyecto de hegemonía en la región. Para sustentar lo anterior se utilizan categorías analíticas propias de la Geopolítica de autores como Zbigniew Brzezinski, Saul Cohen y Peter Taylor, las cuales se contrastan con las estrategias de Rusia, China y Estados Unidos en Asia Central.

Poor people and risky business

We try to explain why economic conflicts and illegal business often take place in poor countries. We use the concept of subsistence level of consumption (d) and assume a regular concave utility function for consumption levels higher than d. For consumption levels lower than d utility is constant and equal to zero. Under this framework poor agents are risk-lovers. This result helps to explain why economic conflicts are more likely to appear in poor economies and why poor agents are more willing to undertake illegal business.

Construyendo identidad: cooperación japonesa mediante la JICA (Agencia de Cooperación Internacional del Japón) en Myanmar y Tailandia (2007 – 2013)

En el caso del Estado japonés, la Agencia de Cooperación Internacional del Japón (JICA), es una herramienta de política exterior que contribuye a la construcción de una identidad benefactora. Lo anterior va de la mano con la idea de que para el constructivismo de Alexander Wendt, los Estados crean y afianzan sus identidades en circunstancias dadas socialmente. El presente estudio de caso expone los diferentes programas impulsados, gestionados y ejecutados por la JICA en Myanmar y Tailandia entre 2007 y 2013. Así pues, se analizan cómo el conjunto de acciones japonesas en ambos Estados del Sudeste Asiático coadyuvan a cimentar la imagen de un Japón benefactor en la región. Concluyendo que el Estado Nipón asiste por igual a Estados con coyunturas internas discrepantes, tanto a éstos con necesidades inmediatas por suplir, como aquellos con realidades semejantes a Japón.

Perspectivas de la creación de un régimen monetario y comercial chino. Un análisis de la actuación de China en el sudeste asiático desde 1997

La presente monografía busca explicar el proceso a través del cual China, en calidad de potencia en el Sudeste Asiático, ha implementado reglas a su favor en las cuales su moneda y la competitividad de sus productos han resultado beneficiados. De esta manera, la teoría de la Estabilidad Hegemónica de Robert Gilpin, la cual plantea que los Estados poderosos buscan crear regímenes internacionales con el fin de promover sus propios intereses, es un instrumento para analizar una serie de acciones que China ha emprendido que van encaminadas a la progresiva liberalización de su moneda y a brindar un ambiente cada vez más confiable para incentivar el libre comercio en la región, con el fin de implementar un régimen monetario y comercial acorde con sus intereses.

Dime cómo me percibes y te diré quién soy: Estados Unidos y su idea de la política exterior China en la década de 1950

La década de 1950 fue determinante en el establecimiento y póstumo desarrollo del sistema de política exterior de la República Popular China. Al respecto, es de vital importancia realizar un análisis exhaustivo sobre esta primera etapa en donde actores externos a la nación tuvieron un papel determinante. Se busca, entonces, analizar la incidencia que tuvo el discurso de Estados Unidos en la política exterior China a través de un profundo análisis cualitativo que tendrá como base elementos propios de la historiografía. Mediante aproximaciones constructivistas, se pretende demostrar que las creencias pre-existentes de ambos actores (así como la intersubjetividad entre los mismos), determinó la identidad construida a través de la percepción mutua. Lo anterior, impulsó las relaciones predominantemente agresivas entre Estados Unidos y la China Maoísta de principios de la Guerra Fría.

Global hydrology modelling and uncertainty: running multiple ensembles with a campus grid.

Uncertainties associated with the representation of various physical processes in global climate models (GCMs) mean that, when projections from GCMs are used in climate change impact studies, the uncertainty propagates through to the impact estimates. A complete treatment of this ‘climate model structural uncertainty’ is necessary so that decision-makers are presented with an uncertainty range around the impact estimates. This uncertainty is often underexplored owing to the human and computer processing time required to perform the numerous simulations. Here, we present a 189-member ensemble of global river runoff and water resource stress simulations that adequately address this uncertainty. Following several adaptations and modifications, the ensemble creation time has been reduced from 750 h on a typical single-processor personal computer to 9 h of high-throughput computing on the University of Reading Campus Grid. Here, we outline the changes that had to be made to the hydrological impacts model and to the Campus Grid, and present the main results. We show that, although there is considerable uncertainty in both the magnitude and the sign of regional runoff changes across different GCMs with climate change, there is much less uncertainty in runoff changes for regions that experience large runoff increases (e.g. the high northern latitudes and Central Asia) and large runoff decreases (e.g. the Mediterranean). Furthermore, there is consensus that the percentage of the global population at risk to water resource stress will increase with climate change.

The relationship between multi-species catch and effort: among fishery comparisons

The control of fishing mortality via fishing effort remains fundamental to most fisheries management strategies even at the local community or co-management level. Decisions to support such strategies require knowledge of the underlying response of the catch to changes in effort. Even under adaptive management strategies, imprecise knowledge of the response is likely to help accelerate the adaptive learning process. Data and institutional capacity requirements to employ multi-species biomass dynamics and age-structured models invariably render their use impractical particularly in less developed regions of the world. Surplus production models fitted to catch and effort data aggregated across all species offer viable alternatives. The current paper seeks models of this type that best describe the multi-species catch–effort responses in floodplain-rivers, lakes and reservoirs and reef-based fisheries based upon among fishery comparisons, building on earlier work. Three alternative surplus production models were fitted to estimates of catch per unit area (CPUA) and fisher density for 258 fisheries in Africa, Asia and South America. In all cases examined, the best or equal best fitting model was the Fox type, explaining up to 90% of the variation in CPUA. For lake and reservoir fisheries in Africa and Asia, the Schaefer and an asymptotic model fitted equally well. The Fox model estimates of fisher density (fishers km−2) at maximum yield (iMY) for floodplain-rivers, African lakes and reservoirs and reef-based fisheries are 13.7 (95% CI [11.8, 16.4]); 27.8 (95% CI [17.5, 66.7]) and 643 (95% CI [459,1075]), respectively and compare well with earlier estimates. Corresponding estimates of maximum yield are also given. The significantly higher value of iMY for reef-based fisheries compared to estimates for rivers and lakes reflects the use of a different measure of fisher density based upon human population size estimates. The models predict that maximum yield is achieved at a higher fishing intensity in Asian lakes compared to those in Africa. This may reflect the common practice in Asia of stocking lakes to augment natural recruitment. Because of the equilibrium assumptions underlying the models, all the estimates of maximum yield and corresponding levels of effort should be treated with caution.

Geographical variation in the clouded leopard, Neofelis nebulosa, reveals two species

The clouded leopard, Neofelis nebulosa, is an endangered semiarboreal felid with a wide distribution in tropical forests of southern and southeast Asia, including the islands of Sumatra and Borneo in the Indonesian archipelago [1]. In common with many larger animal species, it displays morphological variation within its wide geographical range and is currently regarded as comprising of up to four subspecies [2-4]. It is widely recognized that taxonomic designation has a major impact on conservation planning and action [5-8]. Given that the last taxonomic revision was made over 50 years ago [2], a more detailed examination of geographical variation is needed. We describe here the results of a morphometric analysis of the pelages of 57 clouded leopards sampled throughout the species' range. We conclude that there are two distinct morphological groups, which differ primarily in the size of their cloud markings. These results are supported by a recent genetic analysis [9]. On that basis, we give diagnoses for the distinction of two species, one in mainland Asia (N. nebulosa) and the other in Indonesia (N. diardi). The implications for conservation that arise from this new taxonomic arrangement are discussed.

Parallel implementation and one year experiments with the Danish Eulerian Model

Large scale air pollution models are powerful tools, designed to meet the increasing demand in different environmental studies. The atmosphere is the most dynamic component of the environment, where the pollutants can be moved quickly on far distnce. Therefore the air pollution modeling must be done in a large computational domain. Moreover, all relevant physical, chemical and photochemical processes must be taken into account. In such complex models operator splitting is very often applied in order to achieve sufficient accuracy as well as efficiency of the numerical solution. The Danish Eulerian Model (DEM) is one of the most advanced such models. Its space domain (4800 × 4800 km) covers Europe, most of the Mediterian and neighboring parts of Asia and the Atlantic Ocean. Efficient parallelization is crucial for the performance and practical capabilities of this huge computational model. Different splitting schemes, based on the main processes mentioned above, have been implemented and tested with respect to accuracy and performance in the new version of DEM. Some numerical results of these experiments are presented in this paper.

Revisiting Asian monsoon formation and change associated with Tibetan Plateau forcing: II. Change

Data analysis based on station observations reveals that many meteorological variables averaged over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are closely correlated, and their trends during the past decades are well correlated with the rainfall trend of the Asian summer monsoon. However, such correlation does not necessarily imply causality. Further diagnosis confirms the existence of a weakening trend in TP thermal forcing, characterized by weakened surface sensible heat flux in spring and summer during the past decades. This weakening trend is associated with decreasing summer precipitation over northern South Asia and North China and increasing precipitation over northwestern China, South China, and Korea. An atmospheric general circulation model, the HadAM3, is employed to elucidate the causality between the weakening TP forcing and the change in the Asian summer monsoon rainfall. Results demonstrate that a weakening in surface sensible heating over the TP results in reduced summer precipitation in the plateau region and a reduction in the associated latent heat release in summer. These changes in turn result in the weakening of the near-surface cyclonic circulation surrounding the plateau and the subtropical anticyclone over the subtropical western North Pacific, similar to the results obtained from the idealized TP experiment in Part I of this study. The southerly that normally dominates East Asia, ranging from the South China Sea to North China, weakens, resulting in a weaker equilibrated Sverdrup balance between positive vorticity generation and latent heat release. Consequently, the convergence of water vapor transport is confined to South China, forming a unique anomaly pattern in monsoon rainfall, the so-called “south wet and north dry.” Because the weakening trend in TP thermal forcing is associated with global warming, the present results provide an effective means for assessing projections of regional climate over Asia in the context of global warming.

Models, moulds and mass production: the mechanics of stylistic influence form the Mediterranean to Bactria

Classical Greek and Roman influence on the material culture of Central Asia and northwestern India is often considered in the abstract. This article attempts to examine the mechanisms of craft production and movement of artisans and objects which made such influence possible, through four case studies: (1) Mould-made ceramics in Hellenistic eastern Bactria; (2) Plaster casts used in the production of metalware from Begram; (3) Terracotta figurines and the moulds used to produce them, from various archaeological sites; and (4) Mass production of identical gold adornments in the nomadic tombs from Tillya Tepe. The implications of such techniques for our understanding of the development of Gandhāran art are also discussed.

Aerosol forcing in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations by HadGEM2-ES and the role of ammonium nitrate

The latest Hadley Centre climate model, HadGEM2-ES, includes Earth system components such as interactive chemistry and eight species of tropospheric aerosols. It has been run for the period 1860–2100 in support of the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Anthropogenic aerosol emissions peak between 1980 and 2020, resulting in a present-day all-sky top of the atmosphere aerosol forcing of −1.6 and −1.4 W m−2 with and without ammonium nitrate aerosols, respectively, for the sum of direct and first indirect aerosol forcings. Aerosol forcing becomes significantly weaker in the 21st century, being weaker than −0.5 W m−2 in 2100 without nitrate. However, nitrate aerosols become the dominant species in Europe and Asia and decelerate the decrease in global mean aerosol forcing. Considering nitrate aerosols makes aerosol radiative forcing 2–4 times stronger by 2100 depending on the representative concentration pathway, although this impact is lessened when changes in the oxidation properties of the atmosphere are accounted for. Anthropogenic aerosol residence times increase in the future in spite of increased precipitation, as cloud cover and aerosol-cloud interactions decrease in tropical and midlatitude regions. Deposition of fossil fuel black carbon onto snow and ice surfaces peaks during the 20th century in the Arctic and Europe but keeps increasing in the Himalayas until the middle of the 21st century. Results presented here confirm the importance of aerosols in influencing the Earth's climate, albeit with a reduced impact in the future, and suggest that nitrate aerosols will partially replace sulphate aerosols to become an important anthropogenic species in the remainder of the 21st century.

Isomap nonlinear dimensionality reduction and bimodality of Asian monsoon convection

It is known that the empirical orthogonal function method is unable to detect possible nonlinear structure in climate data. Here, isometric feature mapping (Isomap), as a tool for nonlinear dimensionality reduction, is applied to 1958–2001 ERA-40 sea-level pressure anomalies to study nonlinearity of the Asian summer monsoon intraseasonal variability. Using the leading two Isomap time series, the probability density function is shown to be bimodal. A two-dimensional bivariate Gaussian mixture model is then applied to identify the monsoon phases, the obtained regimes representing enhanced and suppressed phases, respectively. The relationship with the large-scale seasonal mean monsoon indicates that the frequency of monsoon regime occurrence is significantly perturbed in agreement with conceptual ideas, with preference for enhanced convection on intraseasonal time scales during large-scale strong monsoons. Trend analysis suggests a shift in concentration of monsoon convection, with less emphasis on South Asia and more on the East China Sea.