Reasoning on the Risks of Dynamic Manufacturing Networks through Cognitive Mapping

Part 17: Risk Analysis

Children’s reasoning about other’s intentions: False-belief and counterfactual conditional inferences

Dados suplementares associados com o artigo e epígrafe estão disponíveis em: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cogdev.2016.08.007

Zig-zagging in geometrical reasoning in technological collaborative environments: a Mathematical Working Space-framed study concerning cognition and affect

This study highlights the importance of cognition-affect interaction pathways in the construction of mathematical knowledge. Scientific output demands further research on the conceptual structure underlying such interaction aimed at coping with the high complexity of its interpretation. The paper discusses the effectiveness of using a dynamic model such as that outlined in the Mathematical Working Spaces (MWS) framework, in order to describe the interplay between cognition and affect in the transitions from instrumental to discursive geneses in geometrical reasoning. The results based on empirical data from a teaching experiment at a middle school show that the use of dynamic geometry software favours students’ attitudinal and volitional dimensions and helps them to maintain productive affective pathways, affording greater intellectual independence in mathematical work and interaction with the context that impact learning opportunities in geometric proofs. The reflective and heuristic dimensions of teacher mediation in students’ learning is crucial in the transition from instrumental to discursive genesis and working stability in the Instrumental-Discursive plane of MWS.

Combate ao terrorismo em Portugal : Da estratégia à cooperação no quadro das Forças e Serviços de Segurança

A presente investigação, subordinada ao tema “Combate ao Terrorismo em Portugal: da estratégia à cooperação no quadro das Forças e Serviços de Segurança”, tem como objetivo geral compreender de que forma a legislação sobre o combate ao terrorismo e a resposta conjunta e cooperada das forças e serviços de segurança que dela deriva concorrem, atualmente, para o combate desta ameaça em Portugal. A metodologia empregue segue uma matriz dedutiva, focando-se no estudo de caso da Unidade de Coordenação Antiterrorista, e visando, com recurso à análise documental e a inquéritos por entrevista e por questionário, o desenvolvimento de uma cadeia de raciocínio em ordem descendente, de análise do geral para o particular, para chegar a uma conclusão. O estudo compõe-se em três capítulos essenciais, devidamente delineados e interligados pela seguinte sequência lógica: no primeiro (abordagem conceptual), fazemos um breve estudo do terrorismo e do enquadramento legal sobre a temática do combate ao terrorismo; no segundo (enquadramento metodológico), explicamos de forma pormenorizada a metodologia adotada, bem como os métodos e materiais utilizados; e, por fim, no terceiro capítulo (abordagem empírica) procedemos à apresentação, análise e interpretação dos resultados, procurando estabelecer uma ligação entre a vertente legislativa e a vertente operativa do combate ao terrorismo em Portugal. Concluímos que o enquadramento legislativo permite um desenvolvimento eficaz do combate ao terrorismo, ainda que possa ser aprofundado em determinadas áreas. Mas mais do que um quadro legislativo completo, deve haver uma preocupação ao nível da sensibilização das estruturas e dos próprios profissionais das forças e serviços de segurança para a luta contra o fenómeno terrorista, sendo ainda notória alguma precariedade ao nível da partilha de informações e do culto das informações em Portugal, pois só assim conseguiremos que a resposta conjunta e cooperada das forças e serviços de segurança se alinhe com os propósitos estabelecidos pela lei.

Enseñanza de la multiplicación desde un enfoque constructivista en tercero y cuarto año de Educación General Básica

La presente investigación tiene como objetivo demostrar teóricamente la importancia de la enseñanza de la multiplicación a partir de un enfoque constructivista en el tercero y cuarto año de Educación General Básica, años en los que esta enseñanza se profundiza. En efecto, este trabajo monográfico busca responder a las siguientes interrogantes: ¿En qué consiste la multiplicación y su proceso? ¿Cuál es la diferencia de enseñar la multiplicación desde un enfoque tradicional y un enfoque constructivo? Según la Actualización y Fortalecimiento Curricular (2010): ¿Cómo se debe desarrollar su proceso de enseñanza? ¿Qué estrategias se pueden utilizar para trabajar en la comprensión de la multiplicación en el tercero y cuarto año de Educación General Básica? Para responder estas preguntas se recurre a la revisión de información bibliográfica procedente de revistas, libros y artículos de diferentes autores, que facilitan cumplir con los objetivos planteados. Finalmente, se concluye que la enseñanza - aprendizaje basada en los lineamientos del enfoque pedagógico constructivista tiene como resultado la comprensión que los estudiantes necesitan tener hacia la multiplicación para poder utilizarla en su vida académica y cotidiana. Por tal razón se afirma que, la importancia de enseñar la multiplicación desde un enfoque constructivista se fundamenta en que este lineamiento pedagógico propende el uso de dicha operación matemática en la resolución de problemas, desarrollando así su pensamiento lógico – matemático y el razonamiento, a diferencia de lo que ocurre con el tradicionalismo en el que se memoriza por corto plazo.

Continuous quality improvement in a Maltese hospital using logical framework analysis

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to present the application of logical framework analysis (LFA) for implementing continuous quality improvement (CQI) across multiple settings in a tertiary care hospital. Design/methodology/approach: This study adopts a multiple case study approach. LFA is implemented within three diverse settings, namely, intensive care unit, surgical ward, and acute in-patient psychiatric ward. First, problem trees are developed in order to determine the root causes of quality issues, specific to the three settings. Second, objective trees are formed suggesting solutions to the quality issues. Third, project plan template using logical framework (LOGFRAME) is created for each setting. Findings: This study shows substantial improvement in quality across the three settings. LFA proved to be effective to analyse quality issues and suggest improvement measures objectively. Research limitations/implications: This paper applies LFA in specific, albeit, diverse settings in one hospital. For validation purposes, it would be ideal to analyse in other settings within the same hospital, as well as in several hospitals. It also adopts a bottom-up approach when this can be triangulated with other sources of data. Practical implications: LFA enables top management to obtain an integrated view of performance. It also provides a basis for further quantitative research on quality management through the identification of key performance indicators and facilitates the development of a business case for improvement. Originality/value: LFA is a novel approach for the implementation of CQI programs. Although LFA has been used extensively for project development to source funds from development banks, its application in quality improvement within healthcare projects is scant.

Motivated reasoning in the prediction of sports outcomes and the belief in the “hot hand”

The present paper explores the role of motivation to observe a certain outcome in people's predictions, causal attributions, and beliefs about a streak of binary outcomes (basketball scoring shots). In two studies we found that positive streaks (points scored by the participants' favourite team) lead participants to predict the streak's continuation (belief in the hot hand), but negative streaks lead to predictions of its end (gambler's fallacy). More importantly, these wishful predictions are supported by strategic attributions and beliefs about how and why a streak might unfold. Results suggest that the effect of motivation on predictions is mediated by a serial path via causal attributions to the teams at play and belief in the hot hand.

Moral reasoning in sport: validation of the Portuguese version of the RSBH value-judgement inventory in adolescents

The purpose of this study was to examine the validity and reliability of the Portuguese version of the Rudd Stoll Beller Hahm Value-judgement Inventory (RSBHVI) in a sample of adolescents. The RSBHVI, which measures moral and social reasoning, was translated using a back translation method. A sample of 238 10th to 12th grade high school students (age mean value 16.93 years, s = 1.34) completed the Portuguese versions of RSBH, and the Task and Ego-orientation Questionnaire. Partial support for the original structure of the moral reasoning scale, but not the social reasoning scale, was found. Females, and non-athletes and individual sport athletes scored significantly higher than males and team sport athletes in moral reasoning, respectively. Moral reasoning was negatively correlated with ego-orientation (r = −30; p <. 001) and uncorrelated with task-orientation (r = .10, p > .05). Participants who were low-ego scored higher in moral reasoning than those who were high-ego. It is suggested that decreasing levels of ego-orientation may be necessary to improve athletes’ moral reasoning.

Un aporte a la comprensión de las estrategias emergentes en las organizaciones a través del concepto de improvisación y la metáfora musical

Este trabajo se inscribe en uno de los grandes campos de los estudios organizacionales: la estrategia. La perspectiva clásica en este campo promovió la idea de que proyectarse hacia el futuro implica diseñar un plan (una serie de acciones deliberadas). Avances posteriores mostraron que la estrategia podía ser comprendida de otras formas. Sin embargo, la evolución del campo privilegió en alguna medida la mirada clásica estableciendo, por ejemplo, múltiples modelos para ‘formular’ una estrategia, pero dejando en segundo lugar la manera en la que esta puede ‘emerger’. El propósito de esta investigación es, entonces, aportar al actual nivel de comprensión respecto a las estrategias emergentes en las organizaciones. Para hacerlo, se consideró un concepto opuesto —aunque complementario— al de ‘planeación’ y, de hecho, muy cercano en su naturaleza a ese tipo de estrategias: la improvisación. Dado que este se ha nutrido de valiosos aportes del mundo de la música, se acudió al saber propio de este dominio, recurriendo al uso de ‘la metáfora’ como recurso teórico para entenderlo y alcanzar el objetivo propuesto. Los resultados muestran que 1) las estrategias deliberadas y las emergentes coexisten y se complementan, 2) la improvisación está siempre presente en el contexto organizacional, 3) existe una mayor intensidad de la improvisación en el ‘como’ de la estrategia que en el ‘qué’ y, en oposición a la idea convencional al respecto, 4) se requiere cierta preparación para poder improvisar de manera adecuada.

El videojuego League of legends y su efecto en memoria de trabajo visual y solución de problemas

El propósito de este estudio es medir los efectos que tiene el videojuego League of Legends en los procesos cognitivos de memoria de trabajo visual (MVT) y solución de problemas (SP). Para medir dichos efectos se implementó un diseño pre test-post con un grupo experimental y uno control, compuestos cada uno por siete participantes, en donde se evaluaron los procesos previamente mencionados utilizando los cubos de Corsi para MVT y las matrices del WAIS III para SP. Después de realizar los respectivos entrenamientos se encontraron resultados significativos en los diferentes momentos de aplicación. En el grupo experimental se encontraron diferencias en la variable dependiente SP, mientras que en el grupo control en MVT, pero no en la interacción entre grupos ni diferencias entre grupos, lo que sugiere un efecto de familiarización a la prueba.

Prediction of Length of Hospital Stay in Preterm Infants - A Case-Based Reasoning View

The length of stay of preterm infants in a neonatology service has become an issue of a growing concern, namely considering, on the one hand, the mothers and infants health conditions and, on the other hand, the scarce healthcare facilities own resources. Thus, a pro-active strategy for problem solving has to be put in place, either to improve the quality-of-service provided or to reduce the inherent financial costs. Therefore, this work will focus on the development of a diagnosis decision support system in terms of a formal agenda built on a Logic Programming approach to knowledge representation and reasoning, complemented with a case-based problem solving methodology to computing, that caters for the handling of incomplete, unknown, or even contradictory in-formation. The proposed model has been quite accurate in predicting the length of stay (overall accuracy of 84.9%) and by reducing the computational time with values around 21.3%.

A case-based reasoning view of thrombophilia risk

Thrombophilia stands for a genetic or an acquired tendency to hypercoagulable states that increase the risk of venous and arterial thromboses. Indeed, venous thromboembolism is often a chronic illness, mainly in deep venous thrombosis and pulmonary embolism, requiring lifelong prevention strategies. Therefore, it is crucial to identify the cause of the disease, the most appropriate treatment, the length of treatment or prevent a thrombotic recurrence. Thus, this work will focus on the development of a diagnosis decision support system in terms of a formal agenda built on a logic programming approach to knowledge representation and reasoning, complemented with a case-based approach to computing. The proposed model has been quite accurate in the assessment of thrombophilia predisposition risk, since the overall accuracy is higher than 90% and sensitivity ranging in the interval [86.5%, 88.1%]. The main strength of the proposed solution is the ability to deal explicitly with incomplete, unknown, or even self-contradictory information.

Healthcare Computer Reasoning Addressing Chronically Ill Societies Using IoT: Deep Learning AI to the Rescue of Home-Based Healthcare

The authors present a proposal to develop intelligent assisted living environments for home based healthcare. These environments unite the chronical patient clinical history sematic representation with the ability of monitoring the living conditions and events recurring to a fully managed Semantic Web of Things (SWoT). Several levels of acquired knowledge and the case based reasoning that is possible by knowledge representation of the health-disease history and acquisition of the scientific evidence will deliver, through various voice based natural interfaces, the adequate support systems for disease auto management but prominently by activating the less differentiated caregiver for any specific need. With these capabilities at hand, home based healthcare providing becomes a viable possibility reducing the institutionalization needs. The resulting integrated healthcare framework will provide significant savings while improving the generality of health and satisfaction indicators.

Edge-aware Graph Attention Networks: Joint Reasoning On Text and Knowledge Graphs for Biomedical Question Answering

Much of the real-world dataset, including textual data, can be represented using graph structures. The use of graphs to represent textual data has many advantages, mainly related to maintaining a more significant amount of information, such as the relationships between words and their types. In recent years, many neural network architectures have been proposed to deal with tasks on graphs. Many of them consider only node features, ignoring or not giving the proper relevance to relationships between them. However, in many node classification tasks, they play a fundamental role. This thesis aims to analyze the main GNNs, evaluate their advantages and disadvantages, propose an innovative solution considered as an extension of GAT, and apply them to a case study in the biomedical field. We propose the reference GNNs, implemented with methodologies later analyzed, and then applied to a question answering system in the biomedical field as a replacement for the pre-existing GNN. We attempt to obtain better results by using models that can accept as input both node and edge features. As shown later, our proposed models can beat the original solution and define the state-of-the-art for the task under analysis.

On the role of Computational Logic in Data Science: representing, learning, reasoning, and explaining knowledge

In this thesis we discuss in what ways computational logic (CL) and data science (DS) can jointly contribute to the management of knowledge within the scope of modern and future artificial intelligence (AI), and how technically-sound software technologies can be realised along the path. An agent-oriented mindset permeates the whole discussion, by stressing pivotal role of autonomous agents in exploiting both means to reach higher degrees of intelligence. Accordingly, the goals of this thesis are manifold. First, we elicit the analogies and differences among CL and DS, hence looking for possible synergies and complementarities along 4 major knowledge-related dimensions, namely representation, acquisition (a.k.a. learning), inference (a.k.a. reasoning), and explanation. In this regard, we propose a conceptual framework through which bridges these disciplines can be described and designed. We then survey the current state of the art of AI technologies, w.r.t. their capability to support bridging CL and DS in practice. After detecting lacks and opportunities, we propose the notion of logic ecosystem as the new conceptual, architectural, and technological solution supporting the incremental integration of symbolic and sub-symbolic AI. Finally, we discuss how our notion of logic ecosys- tem can be reified into actual software technology and extended towards many DS-related directions.