Computational modeling for irrigated agriculture planning. Part I: general description and linear programming

Linear programming models are effective tools to support initial or periodic planning of agricultural enterprises, requiring, however, technical coefficients that can be determined using computer simulation models. This paper, presented in two parts, deals with the development, application and tests of a methodology and of a computational modeling tool to support planning of irrigated agriculture activities. Part I aimed at the development and application, including sensitivity analysis, of a multiyear linear programming model to optimize the financial return and water use, at farm level for Jaíba irrigation scheme, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, using data on crop irrigation requirement and yield, obtained from previous simulation with MCID model. The linear programming model outputted a crop pattern to which a maximum total net present value of R$ 372,723.00 for the four years period, was obtained. Constraints on monthly water availability, labor, land and production were critical in the optimal solution. In relation to the water use optimization, it was verified that an expressive reductions on the irrigation requirements may be achieved by small reductions on the maximum total net present value.

Computational modeling for irrigated agriculture planning. Part II: risk analysis

Techniques of evaluation of risks coming from inherent uncertainties to the agricultural activity should accompany planning studies. The risk analysis should be carried out by risk simulation using techniques as the Monte Carlo method. This study was carried out to develop a computer program so-called P-RISCO for the application of risky simulations on linear programming models, to apply to a case study, as well to test the results comparatively to the @RISK program. In the risk analysis it was observed that the average of the output variable total net present value, U, was considerably lower than the maximum U value obtained from the linear programming model. It was also verified that the enterprise will be front to expressive risk of shortage of water in the month of April, what doesn't happen for the cropping pattern obtained by the minimization of the irrigation requirement in the months of April in the four years. The scenario analysis indicated that the sale price of the passion fruit crop exercises expressive influence on the financial performance of the enterprise. In the comparative analysis it was verified the equivalence of P-RISCO and @RISK programs in the execution of the risk simulation for the considered scenario.

Strike hard, strike sure - Operation Musketeer : British military planning during the Suez Crisis, 1956

Operation Musketeer, a combined joint Anglo-French operation aimed at regaining control of the Suez Canal in 1956, has received much attention from scholars. The most common approach to the crisis has been to examine the political dimension. The political events that led Prime Minister Anthony Eden’s cabinet to decide to use military force against the wishes of their superior American ally and in the face of American economic pressure and a Soviet threat to attack Paris and London with rockets have been analysed thoroughly. This is particularly the case because the ceasefire and eventual withdrawal were an indisputable defeat of British policy in the Middle East. The military operation not only ruined Prime Minister Eden’s career, but it also diminished the prestige of Britain. It was the beginning of the end, some claim. The British Empire would never be the same. As the consequences of using force are generally considered more important than the military operations themselves, very little attention has been paid to the military planning of Operation Musketeer. The difference between the number of publications on Operation Corporate of the Falklands War and Operation Musketeer is striking. Not only has there been little previous research on the military aspects of Musketeer, the conclusions drawn in the existing works have not reached a consensus. Some historians, such as Correlli Barnett, compare Musketeer to the utter failures of the Tudor landings and Gallipoli. Among significant politicians, Winston Churchill, who had retired from the prime ministership only a year before the Suez Crisis, described the operation as “the most ill-conceived and ill-executed imaginable”. Colin McInnes, a well-known author on British defence policy, represents the middle view when he describes the execution as “far from failure”. Finally, some, like Julian Thompson, the Commander of 3 Commando Brigade during the Falklands War, rate the military action itself as being successful. The interpretation of how successful the handling of the Suez Crisis was from the military point of view depends very much on the approach taken and the areas emphasised in the subject. Frequently, military operations are analysed in isolation from other events. The action of a country’s armed forces is separated from the wider context and evaluated without a solid point of comparison. Political consequences are often used as validated criteria, and complicated factors contributing to military performance are ignored. The lack of comprehensive research on the military action has left room for an analysis concentrating on the military side of the crisis.

Identification, assessment and ordering of concepts for agro-energy planning and possibilities of spatial analysis

ABSTRACT The present study aims to present the main concepts of the sugarcane straw to energy planning. Throughout the study, the subject is contextualized highlighting broader aspects of sustainability, which is considered the main driver towards agro-energy modernization. Concerning sugarcane straw, we first evaluated its availability regarding technical and economic aspects, and then it summarized the straw production chain for energy supply purposes. As a proposal to support agro-energy planning, it is presented some spatial tools that have been barely used in the Brazilian energy planning context so far. Therefore, working on straw to electricity associated with supply chain basis, we developed a conceptual model to spatially assess this bioenergy system. Using the model proposed, it is described the whole supply chain at state level, which accounted the potential of a single mill to explore straw, as well as main costs associated with straw acquisition, investments on the straw recovery routes and electricity transmission. Bearing these concepts in mind, it is fully believed that spatial analysis can bring important information for agro-energy action plans.

THE ROLE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY IN CREATING SUSTAINABILITY VALUE FOR FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS IN 2020 : a scenario planning approach

The growing importance of global sustainability issues has been causing many changes to the financial services industry. Facts such as climate change, social development and the financial crisis in 2008 have been making banks reconsider the manner that they consider environmental, social and economic factors in their decision-making process. At the same time, information technology (IT) has been transforming the financial service industry and its fast development has casted doubts on the way it should be managed within an organization. This current changing environment brings a number of uncertainties to the future that cannot be addressed using traditional forecasting techniques. This research investigates how IT can bring value to sustainability in the financial service industry in 2020. Through the use of a scenario planning technique, we analyzed how trends in the current environment (considering the relation between sustainability, financial institutions an IT) can lead to four different future scenarios. Then, we discussed how IT can improve a bank’s sustainability performance, considering the limitations of each scenario.

Imaging of Tumour Microenvironment for the Planning of Oncological Therapies Using Positron Emission Tomography

Tumour cells differ from normal tissue cells in several important ways. These differences, like for example changed energy metabolism, result in altered microenvironment of malignant tumours. Non-invasive imaging of tumour microenvironment has been at the centre of intense research recently due to the important role that this changed environement plays in the development of malignant tumours and due to the role it plays in the treatment of these tumours. In this respect, perhaps the most important characteristics of the tumour microenvironment from this point of view are the lack of oxygen or hypoxia and changes in blood flow (BF). The purpose of this thesis was to investigate the processes of energy metabolism, BF and oxygenation in head and neck cancer and pancreatic tumours and to explore the possibilities of improving the methods for their quantification using positron emission tomography (PET). To this end [18F]EF5, a new PET tracer for detection of tumour hypoxia was investigated. Favourable uptake properties of the tracer were observed. In addition, it was established that the uptake of this tracer does not correlate with the uptake of existing tracers for the imaging of energy metabolism and BF, so the information about the presence of tissue hypoxia cannot therefore be obtained using tracers such as [18F]FDG or [15O]H2O. These results were complemented by the results of the follow-up study in which it was shown that the uptake of [18F]EF5 in head and neck tumours prior to treatment is also associated with the overall survival of the patients, indicating that tumour hypoxia is a negative prognostic factor and might be associated with therapeutic resistance. The influences of energy metabolism and BF on the survival of patients with pancreatic cancer were investigated in the second study. The results indicate that the best predictor of survival of patients with pancreatic cancer is the relationship between energy metabolism and BF. These results suggest that the cells with high metabolic activity in a hypoperfused tissue have the most aggressive phenotype.

Dynamic optimization for the trajectory planning of robot manipulators in the presence of obstacles

This paper presents an approach to the solution of moving a robot manipulator with minimum cost along a specified geometric path in the presence of obstacles. The main idea is to express obstacle avoidance in terms of the distances between potentially colliding parts. The optimal traveling time and the minimum mechanical energy of the actuators are considered together to build a multiobjective function. A simple numerical example involving a Cartesian manipulator arm with two-degree-of-freedom is described.

Profitability planning of the ski resort project

Objective of this master’s thesis is to create an investment calculation model, which makes it possible to determine if the ski resort business can be profitable. The ultimate goal is to create a description with the help of theoretical knowledge, interviews and investment calculation model, how the operation of ski resort is possible to be profitable and what are the critical success factors for achieving this goal. Thesis is carried out as qualitative research, which is supported by the necessary constructive information utilizing calculations. The client company has provided valuable insights and material for this thesis. Theoretical report examines the steps of developing a business plan, investment components and methods as well as sensitivity analysis. The theoretical part is based on the articles, textbooks, interviews and researches. The empirical part of the thesis is assembled by benchmarking other same size Finnish ski resorts, conducting interviews and using investment calculation model. The empirical part provides comprehensive information about ski resort industry, the future of the project, the business plan and the profitability calculations. As the result of this thesis the investment calculation model, which makes it possible to simulate different scenarios for ski resort project, was formed. The model was used to create a picture in which kind of scenario the ski resort business would be profitable and what are the critical success factors in achieving this aim.

Validation of transit-time flowmetry for chronic measurements of regional blood flow in resting and exercising rats

The objective of the present study was to validate the transit-time technique for long-term measurements of iliac and renal blood flow in rats. Flow measured with ultrasonic probes was confirmed ex vivo using excised arteries perfused at varying flow rates. An implanted 1-mm probe reproduced with accuracy different patterns of flow relative to pressure in freely moving rats and accurately quantitated the resting iliac flow value (on average 10.43 ± 0.99 ml/min or 2.78 ± 0.3 ml min-1 100 g body weight-1). The measurements were stable over an experimental period of one week but were affected by probe size (resting flows were underestimated by 57% with a 2-mm probe when compared with a 1-mm probe) and by anesthesia (in the same rats, iliac flow was reduced by 50-60% when compared to the conscious state). Instantaneous changes of iliac and renal flow during exercise and recovery were accurately measured by the transit-time technique. Iliac flow increased instantaneously at the beginning of mild exercise (from 12.03 ± 1.06 to 25.55 ± 3.89 ml/min at 15 s) and showed a smaller increase when exercise intensity increased further, reaching a plateau of 38.43 ± 1.92 ml/min at the 4th min of moderate exercise intensity. In contrast, exercise-induced reduction of renal flow was smaller and slower, with 18% and 25% decreases at mild and moderate exercise intensities. Our data indicate that transit-time flowmetry is a reliable method for long-term and continuous measurements of regional blood flow at rest and can be used to quantitate the dynamic flow changes that characterize exercise and recovery

Effect of pyloroplasty and fundectomy on the delay of gastric emptying and gastrointestinal transit of liquid elicited by acute blood volume expansion in awake rats

We evaluated the effects of fundectomy and pyloroplasty on the delay of gastric emptying (GE) and gastrointestinal (GI) transit of liquid due to blood volume (BV) expansion in awake rats. Male Wistar rats (N = 76, 180-250 g) were first submitted to fundectomy (N = 26), Heinecke-Mikulicz pyloroplasty (N = 25) or SHAM laparotomy (N = 25). After 6 days, the left external jugular vein was cannulated and the animals were fasted for 24 h with water ad libitum. The test meal was administered intragastrically (1.5 ml of a phenol red solution, 0.5 mg/ml in 5% glucose) to normovolemic control animals and to animals submitted to BV expansion (Ringer-bicarbonate, iv infusion, 1 ml/min, volume up to 5% body weight). BV expansion decreased GE and GI transit rates in SHAM laparotomized animals by 52 and 35.9% (P<0.05). Fundectomy increased GE and GI transit rates by 61.1 and 67.7% (P<0.05) and prevented the effect of expansion on GE but not on GI transit (13.9% reduction, P<0.05). Pyloroplasty also increased GE and GI transit rates by 33.9 and 44.8% (P<0.05) but did not prevent the effect of expansion on GE or GI transit (50.7 and 21.1% reduction, P<0.05). Subdiaphragmatic vagotomy blocked the effect of expansion on GE and GI transit in both SHAM laparotomized animals and animals submitted to pyloroplasty. In conclusion 1) the proximal stomach is involved in the GE delay due to BV expansion but is not essential for the establishment of a delay in GI transit, which suggests the activation of intestinal resistances, 2) pyloric modulation was not apparent, and 3) vagal pathways are involved

Acute blood volume expansion delays the gastrointestinal transit of a charcoal meal in awake rats

The present study evaluates the effect of blood volume expansion on the gastrointestinal transit of a charchoal meal (2.5 ml of an aqueous suspension consisting of 5% charcoal and 5% gum arabic) in awake male Wistar rats (200-270 g). On the day before the experiments, the rats were anesthetized with ether, submitted to left jugular vein cannulation and fasted with water ad libitum until 2 h before the gastrointestinal transit measurement. Blood volume expansion by iv infusion of 1 ml/min Ringer bicarbonate in volumes of 3, 4 or 5% body weight delayed gastrointestinal transit at 10 min after test meal administration by 21.3-26.7% (P<0.05), but no effect was observed after 1 or 2% body weight expansion. The effect of blood volume expansion (up to 5% body weight) on gastrointestinal transit lasted for at least 60 min (P<0.05). Mean arterial pressure increased transiently and central venous pressure increased and hematocrit decreased (P<0.05). Subdiaphragmatic vagotomy and yohimbine (3 mg/kg) prevented the delay caused by expansion on gastrointestinal transit, while atropine (0.5 mg/kg), L-NAME (2 mg/kg), hexamethonium (10 mg/kg), prazosin (1 mg/kg) or propranolol (2 mg/kg) were ineffective. These data show that blood volume expansion delays the gastrointestinal transit of a charcoal meal and that vagal and yohimbine-sensitive pathways appear to be involved in this phenomenon. The delay in gastrointestinal transit observed here, taken together with the modifications of gastrointestinal permeability to salt and water reported by others, may be part of the mechanisms involved in liquid excess management.

Planning and implementation of entrepreneurial marketing processes in SMEs

Entrepreneurial marketing is newly established term and there is need for more specific studies in order to understand the concept fully. SMEs have entrepreneurial marketing elements more visible in their marketing and therefore provide more fruitful insights for this research. SMEs marketing has gained more recognition during the past years and in some cases innovative characteristics can be identified despite constraints such as lack of certain resources. The purpose of this research is to study entrepreneurial marketing characteristics and SME processes in order to wider understanding and gain more insights of entrepreneurial marketing. In addition, planning and implementation of entrepreneurial marketing processes is examined in order to gain full coverage of SMEs marketing activities. The research was conducted as a qualitative research and data gathering was based on semi-structured interview survey, which involved nine company interviews. Multiple case research was used to analyze data so that focus and clarity could be maintained in organized manner. Case companies were chosen from different business fields so that more variation and insights could be identified. The empirical results suggest that two examined processes networking and word-of-mouth communication are very important processes for case companies which supports the previous researches. However, the entrepreneurial marketing characteristics had variation some were more visible and recognizable than others. Examining more closely the processes companies did not fully understand that networking or word-of-mouth marketing could be used as efficiently as other conventional marketing methods.

Total and segmental colonic transit time in constipated patients with Chagas’ disease without megaesophagus or megacolon

Manometric and pharmacological tests have shown that motor abnormalities may occur in the non-dilated colons of chagasic patients. In order to investigate the presence of abnormalities of colonic function in constipated patients with Chagas’ disease (ChC) without megaesophagus or megacolon, studies of total and segmental colonic transit time with radiopaque markers were performed on 15 ChC patients, 27 healthy volunteers and 17 patients with idiopathic constipation (IC). The values obtained for the control group were similar to those reported in the literature (total colonic time: 34.1 ± 15.6 h; right colon: 9.9 ± 7.3 h; left colon: 10.8 ± 10 h, and rectosigmoid: 12.6 ± 9.9 h). Colonic transit time data permitted us to divide both IC and ChC patients into groups with normal transit and those with slow colonic transit. Colonic inertia was detected in 41% of IC patients and in 13% of ChC patients; left colon isolated stasis (hindgut dysfunction) was detected in 12% of IC patients and 7% of ChC patients, and outlet obstruction was detected in 6% of IC patients and 7% of ChC patients. There were no significant differences in total or segmental colonic transit times between slow transit IC and slow transit ChC patients. In conclusion, an impairment of colonic motility was detected in about 30% of constipated patients with Chagas’ disease without megaesophagus or megacolon. This subgroup of patients presented no distinctive clinical feature or pattern of colonic dysmotility when compared to patients with slow transit idiopathic constipation.

Production planning and optimization of a pulp mill: introduction of the optimisation based scheduling software for pulp industry

The objective of this project was to introduce a new software product to pulp industry, a new market for case company. An optimization based scheduling tool has been developed to allow pulp operations to better control their production processes and improve both production efficiency and stability. Both the work here and earlier research indicates that there is a potential for savings around 1-5%. All the supporting data is available today coming from distributed control systems, data historians and other existing sources. The pulp mill model together with the scheduler, allows what-if analyses of the impacts and timely feasibility of various external actions such as planned maintenance of any particular mill operation. The visibility gained from the model proves also to be a real benefit. The aim is to satisfy demand and gain extra profit, while achieving the required customer service level. Research effort has been put both in understanding the minimum features needed to satisfy the scheduling requirements in the industry and the overall existence of the market. A qualitative study was constructed to both identify competitive situation and the requirements vs. gaps on the market. It becomes clear that there is no such system on the marketplace today and also that there is room to improve target market overall process efficiency through such planning tool. This thesis also provides better overall understanding of the different processes in this particular industry for the case company.

Strategic planning of major disturbance proof network

In the 2000’s Finland suffered from storms that caused long outages in electricity distribution, longest up to two weeks. These major disturbances increased the importance of supply security. In 2013 new Electricity Market Act was announced. It defined maximum duration for outages, 6 h for city plan areas and 36 h for other areas. The aim for this work is to determine required major disturbance proof level for a study area and find tools for prioritizing overhead lines for cabling renovation to improve supply security. Three prioritization methods were chosen to be studied: A: prioritization line sections by customer outage costs they cause, B: maximizing customers major disturbance proof network and C: minimizing excavation costs in medium voltage network. Profitability calculations showed that prioritization method A was the most profitable and C had the weakest profitability. The prioritization method C drove renovation into unreasonable locations in the study area in reliability point of view. Therefore universal rule prioritization methods couldn’t be made from the prioritization methods. This led to the conclusion that every renewing area need to be evaluated in a case by case basis.