Fuzzy real option analysis in patent related decision making and patent valuation

The shift towards a knowledge-based economy has inevitably prompted the evolution of patent exploitation. Nowadays, patent is more than just a prevention tool for a company to block its competitors from developing rival technologies, but lies at the very heart of its strategy for value creation and is therefore strategically exploited for economic pro t and competitive advantage. Along with the evolution of patent exploitation, the demand for reliable and systematic patent valuation has also reached an unprecedented level. However, most of the quantitative approaches in use to assess patent could arguably fall into four categories and they are based solely on the conventional discounted cash flow analysis, whose usability and reliability in the context of patent valuation are greatly limited by five practical issues: the market illiquidity, the poor data availability, discriminatory cash-flow estimations, and its incapability to account for changing risk and managerial flexibility. This dissertation attempts to overcome these impeding barriers by rationalizing the use of two techniques, namely fuzzy set theory (aiming at the first three issues) and real option analysis (aiming at the last two). It commences with an investigation into the nature of the uncertainties inherent in patent cash flow estimation and claims that two levels of uncertainties must be properly accounted for. Further investigation reveals that both levels of uncertainties fall under the categorization of subjective uncertainty, which differs from objective uncertainty originating from inherent randomness in that uncertainties labelled as subjective are highly related to the behavioural aspects of decision making and are usually witnessed whenever human judgement, evaluation or reasoning is crucial to the system under consideration and there exists a lack of complete knowledge on its variables. Having clarified their nature, the application of fuzzy set theory in modelling patent-related uncertain quantities is effortlessly justified. The application of real option analysis to patent valuation is prompted by the fact that both patent application process and the subsequent patent exploitation (or commercialization) are subject to a wide range of decisions at multiple successive stages. In other words, both patent applicants and patentees are faced with a large variety of courses of action as to how their patent applications and granted patents can be managed. Since they have the right to run their projects actively, this flexibility has value and thus must be properly accounted for. Accordingly, an explicit identification of the types of managerial flexibility inherent in patent-related decision making problems and in patent valuation, and a discussion on how they could be interpreted in terms of real options are provided in this dissertation. Additionally, the use of the proposed techniques in practical applications is demonstrated by three fuzzy real option analysis based models. In particular, the pay-of method and the extended fuzzy Black-Scholes model are employed to investigate the profitability of a patent application project for a new process for the preparation of a gypsum-fibre composite and to justify the subsequent patent commercialization decision, respectively; a fuzzy binomial model is designed to reveal the economic potential of a patent licensing opportunity.

Prognosis of colorectal cancer with liver metastasis: value of a prognostic index

The objective of the present study was to explore the factors related to the prognosis of colorectal cancer (CRC) and to establish a prognostic model for the selection of patients who might benefit from hepatic resection for metastatic CRC. A total of 293 patients undergoing liver resection for metastatic CRC (172 males and 80 females ranging in age from 26 to 80 years) were selected and clinical, pathological and outcome data were examined in this retrospective study. The prognostic index (PI) of the patients was calculated on the basis of results of multivariate analysis. Patients were stratified into different groups, with survival curves projected according to PI. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival rates were 58.3, 26.4, and 11.3%, respectively. Univariate analysis indicated that degree of primary tumor differentiation, resection margin, preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level, number of liver metastases, and resection of liver metastases were associated with prognosis (P < 0.05). In multivariate analysis, the last three factors were found to be independent prognostic factors. The resection of liver metastases was a favorable factor. Patients were classified into three groups according to PI, which differed significantly in survival rate (P < 0.05). The individual survival rate was evaluated based on PI. Resection of hepatic colorectal metastases may produce long-term survival and cure. The proposed PI was easy to use, was highly predictive of patient outcome, and permitted categorization of patients into treatment groups.

Reference value of brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity for the eastern Chinese population and potential influencing factors

The present study was conducted to obtain reference values for brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) and to evaluate influencing factors of baPWV according to gender. Using automatic devices, baPWV was measured simultaneously in 2095 subjects. A total of 647 healthy subjects, none of whom presented atherosclerotic risk factors, were analyzed in the present study. Two different statistical methods were used to obtain reference values for baPWV according to subject gender and age. The association between baPWV value and gender, as well as other features, were analyzed. For male subjects, multiple stepwise analysis showed that age, systolic blood pressure (SBP), heart rate (HR), and plasma levels of triglycerides (TG) were independent predictors of baPWV. For female subjects, age, SBP, HR, and plasma levels of uric acid (UA) were independent predictors of baPWV. In male subjects, the upper limits of baPWV values were 1497.43/1425.00, 1518.67/1513.25, 1715.97/1726.50, 1925.20/1971.90, and 2310.18/2115.00 cm/s, obtained using two different statistical methods for the age ranges of 30-39, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, and 70 and older, respectively. For females, the upper limits of baPWV values were 1426.70/1411.13, 1559.15/1498.95, 1733.50/1739.00, 1958.63/1973.78, and 2720.80/2577.00 cm/s for the age ranges of 30-39, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, and 70 and older, respectively. Aging is the most important influencing factor for baPWV value and its effect is more prominent in females. The reference values of baPWV according to age and gender may be useful for the clinical diagnosis and preventive therapy of cardiovascular diseases.

Determination of potential value drivers by identifying customer expectations and perceived value

The purpose of this exploratory research is to identify the potential value drivers regarding a new service offering. More specifically, the aim is to build understanding of customer expectations and perceived value of energy efficiency solutions in the building’s sector. The knowledge is then used in defining potential value drivers. The research is conducted from the customer’s perspective in a business-to-business context. The theory part of the master’s thesis focuses on discussing the antecedents of customer expectations and customer value. The theory gives implications how to determine value drivers and develop value propositions as well as conduct value assessment. The empirical part is based on the qualitative research method. The research was conducted as a single-case study, and the primary data was collected through semi-structured interviews with potential customers. The results of the research revealed that the customer expectations are connected to being able to define value drivers. In addition, the research revealed generic themes relating to the offering and customer-supplier relationship, which help in the process of identifying potential value drivers. The results were discussed in terms of product-, service-, price- and relationship-related value drivers for the new service. Based on the data analysis the dominant value drivers are elaborated in terms of identified customer benefits and customer sacrifices (costs). Finally, some implications of value proposition and value assessment to support the value delivery were given.

Invoice process analysis and development. Case: Power and automation technology company

This master’s thesis studies the case company’s current purchase invoice process and the challenges that are related to it. Like most of other master’s thesis this study consists of both theoretical- and empirical parts. The purpose of this work is to combine theoretical and empirical parts together so that the theoretical part brings value to the empirical case study. The case company’s main business is frequency converters for both low voltage AC & DC drives and medium voltage AC Drives which are used across all industries and applications. The main focus of this study is on the current invoice process modelling. When modelling the existing process with discipline and care, current challenges can be understood better. Empirical study relays heavily on interviews and existing, yet fragmented, data. This, along with own calculations and analysis, creates the foundation for the empirical part of this master’s thesis.

Creating Value for Corporate Sustainability: Stakeholder Engagement

The thesis aims to build a coherent view and understanding of stakeholder engagement’s contribution to corporate sustainability value creation. Theory suggests that corporate sustainability relies on sustainable relationships between the firm and its multiple stakeholders. This study is qualitative and evidence is derived from integrative analysis of literature, secondary data and case study analysis. The findings from the interviews analysis supplement the framework developed as the results of the literature review. The results obtained throughout the thesis research imply that stakeholder engagement helps develop more thorough understandings of issues and alternative perspectives, which in turn facilitates the decision-making processes improvement. The improvement is also achieved through ethical analysis, by weighing the impact of firm’s decisions on all relevant groups. Therefore, clear communication and exchange of information also improve the acceptance of sustainability initiatives amongst stakeholders both in terms of building trust and managing expectations. As practical implications, this thesis presents organizational practices that can be employed by companies to support effective engagement with stakeholders. The described practices could enhance processes such as partnership and co-creation resulting in greater sustainable development.

Processing of Brazil-nut flour: characterization, thermal and morphological analysis

The Brazil nut (Bertholletia excelsea H. B. K.) is noteworthy for its high content of lipids and proteins of elevated biological value and these factors justify the need for further research and incentives for the manufacturing of new trade products. In the present study we sought new forms of technological use of these nuts by the food industry, through their processing as flour, with no alteration in its energy content. The results after its elaboration showed a product with high energy value (431.48 kcal.100 g-1), protein content of 45.92 g.100 g-1, and fiber of 17.14%. The thermal analyses indicate that the introduction of another protein component, such as soy protein isolate, does not alter the reactions or thermal behavior. On the other hand, morphological analyses revealed granular structures similar to the structure of globular proteins. It was observed that after processing to obtain the flour, the product maintains its protein-energy content, as well as its characteristics when subjected to high temperatures.

Physiochemical analysis and centesimal composition of Pleurotus ostreatus mushroom grown in residues from the Amazon

The objective of the present work was to evaluate the nutritional composition of mushrooms produced in alternative substrates in agricultural and agro-industrial residues from the Amazon. C, N, pH, moisture, soluble solids, protein, lipids, total fibers, ashes, carbohydrates and energy were determined. Substrates were formulated from Simarouba amara Aubl. and Ochroma piramidale Cav. ex. Lam. Sawdust and from Bactris gasipaes Kunth and Saccharum officinarum stipe. Results showed that the nutritional composition of P. ostreatus varied according to the cultivation substrate and that it can be considered important food due to its nutritional characteristics such as: high protein content; metabolizable carbohydrates and fiber; and low lipids and calories contents.

Carbon isotope analysis in apple nectar beverages

The aims of this study were to use the isotope analysis method to quantify the carbon of C3 photosynthetic cycle in commercial apple nectars and to determine the legal limit to identify the beverages that do not conform to the safety standards established by the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply. These beverages (apple nectars) were produced in the laboratory according to the Brazilian legislation. Adulterated nectars were also produced with an amount of pulp juice below the permitted threshold limit value. The δ13C values of the apple nectars and their fractions (pulp and purified sugar) were measured to quantify the C3 source percentage. In order to demonstrate the existence of adulteration, the values found were compared to the limit values established by the Brazilian Law. All commercial apple nectars analyzed were within the legal limits, which enabled to identify the nectars that were in conformity with the Brazilian Law. The isotopic methodology developed proved efficient to quantify the carbon of C3 origin in commercial apple nectars.

The influence of peeling and type of drying on chemical and sensorial analysis of organic coffee

Organic coffee is characterized by being produced without the use of chemical products and by having a similar or superior quality in comparison to that of coffee produced by traditional methods. The production of organic coffee does not include the use of highly soluble nutrients, which makes consumers concerned with environmental issues and healthy eating habits realize its true value. This paper aims to analyze the influence of harvesting, peeling and drying on the quality of organic coffee, in order to present the best way of producing high quality coffee. Samples of organic coffee were harvested by both conventional and selective ways, and some were peeled. They were then dried on concrete patio and on suspended terraces. The beans were analyzed for potassium leaching, electrical conductivity, titratable acidity, and submitted to coffee cupping-test. The results obtained indicated that the selective harvesting of the peeled or unpeeled cherry coffee dried on concrete terrace is feasible for production of fine coffees. This type of processing effectively influenced the final quality of the organic coffee, thus being an alternative to improve the quality and market value of the product, especially for small producers, cooperatives, and associations of coffee producers.

TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE LOCAL ADVANTAGE? - Investment value of the analyst local advantage in the Finnish stock market in 2006–2014

An investor can either conduct independent analysis or rely on the analyses of others. Stock analysts provide markets with expectations regarding particular securities. However, analysts have different capabilities and resources, of which investors are seldom cognizant. The local advantage refers to the advantage stemming from cultural or geographical proximity to securities analyzed. The research has confirmed that local agents are generally more accurate or produce excess returns. This thesis tests the investment value of the local advantage regarding Finnish stocks via target price data. The empirical section investigates the local advantage from several aspects. It is discovered that local analysts were more focused on certain sectors generally located close to consumer markets. Market reactions to target price revisions were generally insignificant with the exception to local positive target prices. Both local and foreign target prices were overly optimistic and exhibited signs of herding. Neither group could be identified as a leader or follower of new information. Additionally, foreign price change expectations were more in line with the quantitative models and ideas such as beta or return mean reversion. The locals were more accurate than foreign analysts in 5 out of 9 sectors and vice versa in one. These sectors were somewhat in line with coverage decisions and buttressed the idea of local advantage stemming from proximity to markets, not to headquarters. The accuracy advantage was dependent on sample years and on the measure used. Local analysts ranked magnitudes of price changes more accurately in optimistic and foreign analysts in pessimistic target prices. Directional accuracy of both groups was under 50% and target prices held no linear predictive power. Investment value of target prices were tested by forming mean-variance efficient portfolios. Parallel to differing accuracies in the levels of expectations foreign portfolio performed better when short sales were allowed and local better when disallowed. Both local and non-local portfolios performed worse than a passive index fund, albeit not statistically significantly. This was in line with previously reported low overall accuracy and different accuracy profiles. Refraining from estimating individual stock returns altogether produced statistically significantly higher Sharpe ratios compared to local or foreign portfolios. The proposed method of testing the investment value of target prices of different groups suffered from some inconsistencies. Nevertheless, these results are of interest to investors seeking the advice of security analysts.

Chemical composition and nutritive value of hot pepper seed (Capsicum annuum) grown in Northeast Region of China

Chemical composition and nutritive value of hot pepper seeds (Capsicum annuum) grown in Northeast Region of China were investigated. The proximate analysis showed that moisture, ash, crude fat, crude protein and total dietary fiber contents were 4.48, 4.94, 23.65, 21.29 and 38.76 g/100 g, respectively. The main amino acids were glutamic acid and aspartic acid (above 2 g/100 g), followed by histidine, phenylalanine, lysine, arginine, cysteine, leucine, tryptophan, serine, glycine, methionine, threonine and tyrosine (0.8-2 g/100 g). The contents of proline, alanine, valine and isoleucine were less than 0.8 g/100 g. The fatty acid profile showed that linoleic acid, palmitic acid, oleic acid, stearic acid and linolenic acid (above 0.55 g/100 g) as the most abundant fatty acids followed lauric acid, arachidic acid, gondoic acid and behenic acid (0.03-0.15 g/100 g). Analyses of mineral content indicated that the most abundant mineral was potassium, followed by magnesium, calcium, iron, zinc, sodium and manganese. The nutritional composition of hot pepper seeds suggested that they could be regarded as good sources of food ingredients and as new sources of edible oils.

Value creation in project business relationships: Supplier and customer's perspectives

The purpose of this study is to analyze supplier’s value creation ability in project business in order to enhance customer’s business. In addition, the aim is to identify the role of business relationships in value creation and analyze the applicability of key account management in project business. The study considers value from the customer’s point of view. The concepts of value and value creation are widely discussed in marketing literature. Theory emphasizes the importance of value creation and business relationships in business markets. The empirical part of the study is conducted as a case study research. The empirical evidence is collected by interviewing one supplier organization and their three customer organizations. These companies operate in Finnish and global industrial markets. Data is collected through semi-structured interviews and analyzed by using qualitative content analysis. The study identifies several customer value drivers influencing on the value creation, which can be divided into product, service and relationship elements. One of the recognized value drivers is customer-supplier relationship. The findings show that a closer relationship enhances value creation possibilities and the key account management program allows effective managing of business relationships. As managerial implications, suppliers should seek to create continuous and conversational relationships with the key account customers.

Reputational Risk Management as a key element for business continuity and value maximization

This thesis reveals the topic of reputational risk management as a key element for business continuity and value maximization. The purpose of the work is to investigate reputational risk from the side of its definition, management (including legal requirements on this risk category) and measurement and to analyse reputational risk’s impact on business continuity and value maximization. To be able to do this, different respective articles, reports of financial institutions are gathered and constructive summaries and analysis are made. In order to deeply investigate the impact of reputational risk on business continuity and value maximization, it was chosen to study it from three aspects: 1) check the impact of stock valuation of 7 companies that experienced reputational catastrophe / risk, 2) analyse a case study on disagreements in management of reputational risk among case companies and impact on their respective performance, and 3) conduct a survey of financial sector companies in Liechtenstein to see how reputational risk management works in practice. The findings of the research showed a significant impact of reputation decadence on company’s value and trading volume, and showed crucial importance of post-crisis management for the company’s financial performance. The results of the qualitative research based on survey proved that companies consider reputational risk management as a one of the key elements for their business continuity and value maximization.

A performance analysis of conventional and fundamental exchange traded funds: ETFs and their risk-return characteristics in relation to building institutional investor’s passive portfolio

An exchange traded fund (ETF) is a financial instrument that tracks some predetermined index. Since their initial establishment in 1993, ETFs have grown in importance in the field of passive investing. The main reason for the growth of the ETF industry is that ETFs combine benefits of stock investing and mutual fund investing. Although ETFs resemble mutual funds in many ways, also many differences occur. In addition, ETFs not only differ from mutual funds but also differ among each other. ETFs can be divided into two categories, i.e. market capitalisation ETFs and fundamental (or strategic) ETFs, and further into subcategories depending on their fundament basis. ETFs are a useful tool for diversification especially for a long-term investor. Although the economic importance of ETFs has risen drastically during the past 25 years, the differences and risk-return characteristics of fundamental ETFs have yet been rather unstudied area. In effect, no previous research on market capitalisation and fundamental ETFs was found during the research process. For its part, this thesis seeks to fill this research gap. The studied data consist of 50 market capitalisation ETFs and 50 fundamental ETFs. The fundaments, on which the indices that the fundamental ETFs track, were not limited nor segregated into subsections. The two types of ETFs were studied at an aggregate level as two different research groups. The dataset ranges from June 2006 to December 2014 with 103 monthly observations. The data was gathered using Bloomberg Terminal. The analysis was conducted as an econometric performance analysis. In addition to other econometric measures, the methods that were used in the performance analysis included modified Value-at-Risk, modified Sharpe ratio and Treynor ratio. The results supported the hypothesis that passive market capitalisation ETFs outperform active fundamental ETFs in terms of risk-adjusted returns, though the difference is rather small. Nevertheless, when taking into account the higher overall trading costs of the fundamental ETFs, the underperformance gap widens. According to the research results, market capitalisation ETFs are a recommendable diversification instrument for a long-term investor. In addition to better risk-adjusted returns, passive ETFs are more transparent and the bases of their underlying indices are simpler than those of fundamental ETFs. ETFs are still a young financial innovation and hence data is scarcely available. On future research, it would be valuable to research the differences in risk-adjusted returns also between the subsections of fundamental ETFs.