Strategic project evaluation for open pit mining ventures using real options and allied econometric techniques

Open pit mine operations are complex businesses that demand a constant assessment of risk. This is because the value of a mine project is typically influenced by many underlying economic and physical uncertainties, such as metal prices, metal grades, costs, schedules, quantities, and environmental issues, among others, which are not known with much certainty at the beginning of the project. Hence, mining projects present a considerable challenge to those involved in associated investment decisions, such as the owners of the mine and other stakeholders. In general terms, when an option exists to acquire a new or operating mining project, , the owners and stock holders of the mine project need to know the value of the mining project, which is the fundamental criterion for making final decisions about going ahead with the venture capital. However, obtaining the mine project’s value is not an easy task. The reason for this is that sophisticated valuation and mine optimisation techniques, which combine advanced theories in geostatistics, statistics, engineering, economics and finance, among others, need to be used by the mine analyst or mine planner in order to assess and quantify the existing uncertainty and, consequently, the risk involved in the project investment. Furthermore, current valuation and mine optimisation techniques do not complement each other. That is valuation techniques based on real options (RO) analysis assume an expected (constant) metal grade and ore tonnage during a specified period, while mine optimisation (MO) techniques assume expected (constant) metal prices and mining costs. These assumptions are not totally correct since both sources of uncertainty—that of the orebody (metal grade and reserves of mineral), and that about the future behaviour of metal prices and mining costs—are the ones that have great impact on the value of any mining project. Consequently, the key objective of this thesis is twofold. The first objective consists of analysing and understanding the main sources of uncertainty in an open pit mining project, such as the orebody (in situ metal grade), mining costs and metal price uncertainties, and their effect on the final project value. The second objective consists of breaking down the wall of isolation between economic valuation and mine optimisation techniques in order to generate a novel open pit mine evaluation framework called the ―Integrated Valuation / Optimisation Framework (IVOF)‖. One important characteristic of this new framework is that it incorporates the RO and MO valuation techniques into a single integrated process that quantifies and describes uncertainty and risk in a mine project evaluation process, giving a more realistic estimate of the project’s value. To achieve this, novel and advanced engineering and econometric methods are used to integrate financial and geological uncertainty into dynamic risk forecasting measures. The proposed mine valuation/optimisation technique is then applied to a real gold disseminated open pit mine deposit to estimate its value in the face of orebody, mining costs and metal price uncertainties.

Personalised search – a hybrid approach for web information retrieval and its evaluation

Nowadays, everyone can effortlessly access a range of information on the World Wide Web (WWW). As information resources on the web continue to grow tremendously, it becomes progressively more difficult to meet high expectations of users and find relevant information. Although existing search engine technologies can find valuable information, however, they suffer from the problems of information overload and information mismatch. This paper presents a hybrid Web Information Retrieval approach allowing personalised search using ontology, user profile and collaborative filtering. This approach finds the context of user query with least user’s involvement, using ontology. Simultaneously, this approach uses time-based automatic user profile updating with user’s changing behaviour. Subsequently, this approach uses recommendations from similar users using collaborative filtering technique. The proposed method is evaluated with the FIRE 2010 dataset and manually generated dataset. Empirical analysis reveals that Precision, Recall and F-Score of most of the queries for many users are improved with proposed method.

Designing an immersive environment for public use

Bystander is a multi-user, immersive, interactive environment intended for public display in a museum or art gallery. It is designed to make available heritage collections in novel and culturally responsible ways. We use its development as a case study to examine the role played in that process by a range of tools and techniques from participatory design traditions. We describe how different tools were used within the design process, specifically: the ways in which the potential audience members were both included and represented; the prototypes that have been constructed as a way of envisioning how the final work might be experienced; and how these tools have been brought together in ongoing designing and evaluation. We close the paper with some reflections on the extension of participatory commitments into still-emerging areas of technology design that prioritise the design of spaces for human experience and reflective interaction.

Grounded Media: Expanding the Scope of Ecological Art Practices Within New Media Arts Culture

‘Grounded Media’ is a form of art practice focused around the understanding that our ecological crisis is also a cultural crisis, perpetuated by our sense of separation from the material and immaterial ecologies upon which we depend. This misunderstanding of relationships manifests not only as environmental breakdown, but also in the hemorrhaging of our social fabric. ‘Grounded Media’ is consistent with an approach to media art making that I name ‘ecosophical’ and ‘praxis-led’ – which seeks through a range of strategies, to draw attention to the integrity, diversity and efficacy of the biophysical, social and electronic environments of which we are an integral part. It undertakes this through particular choices of location, interaction design,participative strategies and performative direction. This form of working emerged out of the production of two major projects, Grounded Light [8] and Shifting Intimacies [9] and is evident in a recent prototypical wearable art project called In_Step [6]. The following analysis and reflections will assist in promoting new, sustainable roles for media artists who are similarly interested in attuning their practices.

Understanding evaluation of learning support in mathematics and statistics

With rapid and continuing growth of learning support initiatives in mathematics and statistics found in many parts of the world, and with the likelihood that this trend will continue, there is a need to ensure that robust and coherent measures are in place to evaluate the effectiveness of these initiatives. The nature of learning support brings challenges for measurement and analysis of its effects. After briefly reviewing the purpose, rationale for, and extent of current provision, this article provides a framework for those working in learning support to think about how their efforts can be evaluated. It provides references and specific examples of how workers in this field are collecting, analysing and reporting their findings. The framework is used to structure evaluation in terms of usage of facilities, resources and services provided, and also in terms of improvements in performance of the students and staff who engage with them. Very recent developments have started to address the effects of learning support on the development of deeper approaches to learning, the affective domain and the development of communities of practice of both learners and teachers. This article intends to be a stimulus to those who work in mathematics and statistics support to gather even richer, more valuable, forms of data. It provides a 'toolkit' for those interested in evaluation of learning support and closes by referring to an on-line resource being developed to archive the growing body of evidence. © 2011 Taylor & Francis.

Practical decision support system evaluation for consultant selection

The widespread development of Decision Support System (DSS) in construction indicate that the evaluation of software become more important than before. However, it is identified that most research in construction discipline did not attempt to assess its usability. Therefore, little is known about the approach on how to properly evaluate a DSS for specific problem. In this paper, we present a practical framework that can be guidance for DSS evaluation. It focuses on how to evaluate software that is dedicatedly designed for consultant selection problem. The framework features two main components i.e. Sub-system Validation and Face Validation. Two case studies of consultant selection at Malaysian Department of Irrigation and Drainage were integrated in this framework. Some inter-disciplinary area such as Software Engineering, Human Computer Interaction (HCI) and Construction Project Management underpinned the discussion of the paper. It is anticipated that this work can foster better DSS development and quality decision making that accurately meet the client’s expectation and needs

Technology transfer evaluation in the high technology industry : an interdisciplinary perspective

The underlying objective of this study was to develop a novel approach to evaluate the potential for commercialisation of a new technology. More specifically, this study examined the 'ex-ante'. evaluation of the technology transfer process. For this purpose, a technology originating from the high technology sector was used. The technology relates to the application of software for the detection of weak signals from space, which is an established method of signal processing in the field of radio astronomy. This technology has the potential to be used in commercial and industrial areas other than astronomy, such as detecting water leakages in pipes. Its applicability to detecting water leakage was chosen owing to several problems with detection in the industry as well as the impact it can have on saving water in the environment. This study, therefore, will demonstrate the importance of interdisciplinary technology transfer. The study employed both technical and business evaluation methods including laboratory experiments and the Delphi technique to address the research questions. There are several findings from this study. Firstly, scientific experiments were conducted and these resulted in a proof of concept stage of the chosen technology. Secondly, validation as well as refinement of criteria from literature that can be used for „ex-ante. evaluation of technology transfer has been undertaken. Additionally, after testing the chosen technology.s overall transfer potential using the modified set of criteria, it was found that the technology is still in its early stages and will require further development for it to be commercialised. Furthermore, a final evaluation framework was developed encompassing all the criteria found to be important. This framework can help in assessing the overall readiness of the technology for transfer as well as in recommending a viable mechanism for commercialisation. On the whole, the commercial potential of the chosen technology was tested through expert opinion, thereby focusing on the impact of a new technology and the feasibility of alternate applications and potential future applications.

Understanding IT business value creation and evaluation in least developed economies

Information Technology (IT) is an important resource that can facilitate growth and development in both the developed and developing economies. The forces of globalisation increase the digital divide between the developed and developing economies is increasing. The least developed economies (LDEs) are the most vulnerable within this environment. Intense competition for IT resources means that LDEs need a deeper understanding of how to source and evaluate their IT-related efforts. This effort puts LDEs in a better position to source funding from various stakeholders and promote localized investment in IT. This study presents a complementary approach to securing better IT-related business value in organizations in the LDEs. It further evaluates how IT and the complementaries need to managed within the LDEs. Analysis of data collected from five LDEs show that organizations that invest in IT and related complementaries are able to better their business processes. The data also suggest that improved business processes lead to overall business processes improvements. The above is only possible if organizations adopt IT and make related changes in the complementary resources within the established culture and localizing the required changes.

Evaluation of design-builder qualifications through the analysis of Requests for Qualifications (RFQs)

The two-phrase best-value process has been widely used by public agencies for Design and Build (DB) procurement, with a key issue in the first phase of pre-qualification being the determination of evaluation criteria. This study identified a set of general qualification criteria for design-builders and compares their relative importance by a thorough content analysis of 97 Requests for Qualification (RFQ) for public DB projects advertised between 2000 and 2011 in various regions of the USA. The thirty-nine qualification criteria found are summarized and classified into eight categories comprising: experience; project understanding and approach; organizational structure and capacity; past performance record; professional qualifications; responsiveness to RFQs, office location and familiarity with local environment; and legal status in descending order of their relative importance. A comparative analysis of different types of projects shows that the relative weightings of the qualification criteria vary according to different characteristics of the DB projects involved.

A process evaluation of a comprehensive school based injury prevention program

A process evaluation enables understanding of critical issues that can inform the improved, ongoing implementation of an intervention program. This study describes the process evaluation of a comprehensive, multi-level injury prevention program for adolescents. The program targets change in injury associated with violence, transport and alcohol risks and incorporates two primary elements: an 8-week, teacher delivered attitude and behaviour change curriculum for Grade 8 students; and a professional development program for teachers on school level methods of protection, focusing on strategies to increase students’ connectedness to school.

How effective is the new child restraint legislation in Queensland? A mixed methods evaluation

Research Interests: Are parents complying with the legislation? Is this the same for urban, regional and rural parents? Indigenous parents? What difficulties do parents experience in complying? Do parents understand why the legislation was put in place? Have there been negative consequences for other organisations or sectors of the community?

An evaluation framework for assessing the impact of public bicycle share schemes

INTRODUCTION • Public bicycle share schemes have emerged as a method of increasing rates of bicycle riding. • The overwhelming majority of schemes have begun since 2005, taking advantage of various tracking and payment technologies making short term rental practical and affordable. • Very little research has been undertaken to determine their potentially broad impact on transport behaviour and consequently, it is difficult to understand the performance of these schemes in terms of reduced emissions and congestion, as well as possible increases in physical activity.

When non-significance maybe significant: lessons learned from a study into the development, implementation and evaluation of a risk assessment tool for fleet settings

Introduction This study reports on the development of a self report assessment tool to increase the efficacy of crash prediction within Australian Fleet settings Over last 20 years an array of measures have been produced (Driver anger scale, Driving Skill Inventory, Manchester Driver Behaviour Questionnaire, Driver Attitude Questionnaire, Driver Stress Inventory, Safety Climate Questionnaire) While these tools are useful, research has demonstrated limited ability to accurately identify individuals most likely to be involved in a crash. Reasons cited include; - Crashes are relatively rare - Other competing factors may influence crash event - Ongoing questions regarding the validity of self report measures (common method variance etc) - Lack of contemporary issues relating to fleet driving performance

Evaluation of the 2010 child restraint legislation in Queensland

Occupant injury comprises the largest proportion of child road crash trauma in most highly motorised countries. In Australia, road crashes are the primary cause of death for children aged 1-14 years and are among the top three causes of serious injury to this age group. For this reason considerable research attention has been focused on understanding the contributing factors and the most effective ways of improving children’s safety as car passengers. Australia has been particularly active in this area, with well regarded work being conducted on levels of use of dedicated child restraints, restraint crash performance in laboratory conditions, examination of real world restraint crash performance (case review), and studies of psychosocial factors influencing perceptions about restraints and their use (Brown & Bilston, 2006; Brown, McCaskill, Henderson & Bilston, 2006; Edwards, Anderson & Hutchinson, 2006; Lennon, 2005, 2007). New legislation for the restraint of children as vehicle passengers was enacted in Queensland in March 2010. This new legislation recognises the importance of dedicated restraint use for children up to at least age 7 years and the protective benefits of rear seating position in the event of a crash. As part of improving children’s safety and addressing key priority areas, the Queensland Injury Prevention Council (QIPC) and Department of Transport and Main Roads (TMR) commissioned the Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety, Queensland (CARRS-Q) to evaluate the impact of the new legislation. Although at the time of commencing the research the legislation had only been in force for 14 months, it was deemed critical to review its effectiveness in guiding parental choices and compliance in order to inform the design and focus of further supporting initiatives and interventions. Specifically, the research sought clear evidence of exactly what impact, if any, the legislation has had on compliance levels and what difficulties (if any) parents/carers experience in relation to interpreting as well as complying with the requirements of the new law. Knowledge about these barriers or difficulties will allow any future changes or improvements to the legislation to address such barriers and thus improve its effectiveness. Moreover, better information about how the legislation has affected parents will provide a basis to plan non-legislative comprehensive multi-strategy interventions such as community, educational or behavioural interventions with parents/carers and other stakeholder groups. In addition, it will allow identification of the most effective aspects of the legislation and those areas in need of extra attention to improve effectiveness/compliance and thus better protect children travelling in cars and improve their health and safety. This report presents the findings from the four components of the research: the literature review; observational study; intercept interviews and focus group with parents; and the interviews with key stakeholders.

Performance evaluation of eight contemporary passive solar homes in subtropical Australia

Subtropical south-east Queensland’s expanding population is expected to lead to a demand for an additional 754,000 dwellings by 2031. A legacy of poor housing design, minimal building regulations, an absence of building performance evaluation and various social and market factors has lead to a high and growing penetration of, and reliance on, air conditioners to provide comfort in this relatively benign climate. This reliance impacts on policy goals to adapt to and mitigate against global warming, electricity infrastructure investment and household resilience. Based on the concept of bioclimatic design, this field study scrutinizes eight non-air conditioned homes to develop a deeper understanding of the role of contemporary passive solar architecture in the delivery of thermally comfortable and resilient homes in the subtropics. These homes were found to provide inhabitants with an acceptable level of thermal comfort (18-28oC) for 77 – 97% of the year. Family expectations and experiences of comfort, and the various design strategies utilized were compared against the measured performance outcomes. This comparison revealed issues that limited quantification and implementation of design intent and highlighted factors that constrained system optimisation.