Causalités à court et à long terme dans les modèles VAR et ARIMA multivariés.

La causalité au sens de Granger est habituellement définie par la prévisibilité d'un vecteur de variables par un autre une période à l'avance. Récemment, Lutkepohl (1990) a proposé de définir la non-causalité entre deux variables (ou vecteurs) par la non-prévisibilité à tous les délais dans le futur. Lorsqu'on considère plus de deux vecteurs (ie. lorsque l'ensemble d'information contient les variables auxiliaires), ces deux notions ne sont pas équivalentes. Dans ce texte, nous généralisons d'abord les notions antérieures de causalités en considérant la causalité à un horizon donné h arbitraire, fini ou infini. Ensuite, nous dérivons des conditions nécessaires et suffisantes de non-causalité entre deux vecteurs de variables (à l'intérieur d'un plus grand vecteur) jusqu'à un horizon donné h. Les modèles considérés incluent les autoregressions vectorielles, possiblement d'ordre infini, et les modèles ARIMA multivariés. En particulier, nous donnons des conditions de séparabilité et de rang pour la non-causalité jusqu'à un horizon h, lesquelles sont relativement simples à vérifier.

Estudio sobre los parámetros de fermentación de importancia industrial durante la propagación de Bacillus thuringiensis var. kumamotoensis C-4 para producción de bioinsecticidas

Tesis (Doctor en Ciencias con Especialidad en Microbiología) U.A.N.L.

Inférence exacte simulée et techniques d'estimation dans les modèles VAR et VARMA avec applications macroéconomiques

Thèse numérisée par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

Urban and peri-urban agricultural production along railway tracks: a case study from the Mumbai Metropolitan Region

Urban and peri-urban agriculture (UPA) contributes to food security, serves as an opportunity for income generation, and provides recreational services to urban citizens. With a population of 21 Million people, of which 60 % live in slums, UPA activities can play a crucial role in supporting people’s livelihoods in Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR). This study was conducted to characterize the railway gardens, determine their role in UPA production, and assess potential risks. It comprises a baseline survey among 38 railway gardeners across MMR characterized by different demographic, socio-economic, migratory, and labour characteristics. Soil, irrigation water, and plant samples were analyzed for nutrients, heavy metals, and microbial load. All the railway gardeners practiced agriculture as a primary source of income and cultivated seasonal vegetables such as lady’s finger (Abelmoschus esculentus L. Moench), spinach (Spinacia oleracea L.), red amaranth (Amaranthus cruentus L.), and white radish (Raphanus sativus var. longipinnatus) which were irrigated with waste water. This irrigation water was loaded with 7–28 mg N l^(−1), 0.3–7 mg P l^(−1), and 8–32 mg K l^(−1), but also contained heavy metals such as lead (0.02–0.06 mg Pb l^(−1)), cadmium (0.03–0.17 mg Cd l^(−1)), mercury (0.001–0.005 mg Hg l^(−1)), and pathogens such as Escherichia coli (1,100 most probable number per 100 ml). Levels of heavy metals exceeded the critical thresholds in surface soils (Cr, Ni, and Sr) and produce (Pb, Cd, and Sr). The railway garden production systems can substantially foster employment and reduce economic deprivation of urban poor particularly slum dwellers and migrant people. However this production system may also cause possible health risks to producers and consumers.

Resultats de dos anys de Lluita Obligatòria pel control de la mosca de la fruita (Ceratitis capitata) en presseguers de les comarques de l’Alt i Baix Empordà

Estudi sobre el treball realitzat durant els anys 2005 i 2006 en més de 300 ha de presseguers de l'Alt i el Baix Empordà que contempla aspectes biològics de C. capitata, la metodologia de seguiment i control utilitzada durant els dos anys, avaluacions realitzades a camp així com l’anàlisi de les dades obtingudes

Proposta metodol??gica per a les pr??ctiques de l'escola universit??ria de formaci?? del professorat d'EGB de les Illes Balears. 'Propuesta metodol??gica para las pr??cticas de la escuela universitaria de formaci??n del profesorado de EGB de las Islas Baleares'

Resumen tomado de la publicaci??n

Liderazgo en las instituciones educativas : una revisi??n de l??neas de investigaci??n

Resumen basado en el de la publicaci??n

Aprender a liderar l??deres : competencias para un liderazgo directivo que promueva el liderazgo docente

Resumen basado en el de la publicaci??n

Use of airborne remote sensing to detect riverside Brassica rapa to aid in risk assessment of transgenic crops

High resolution descriptions of plant distribution have utility for many ecological applications but are especially useful for predictive modelling of gene flow from transgenic crops. Difficulty lies in the extrapolation errors that occur when limited ground survey data are scaled up to the landscape or national level. This problem is epitomized by the wide confidence limits generated in a previous attempt to describe the national abundance of riverside Brassica rapa (a wild relative of cultivated rapeseed) across the United Kingdom. Here, we assess the value of airborne remote sensing to locate B. rapa over large areas and so reduce the need for extrapolation. We describe results from flights over the river Nene in England acquired using Airborne Thematic Mapper (ATM) and Compact Airborne Spectrographic Imager (CASI) imagery, together with ground truth data. It proved possible to detect 97% of flowering B. rapa on the basis of spectral profiles. This included all stands of plants that occupied >2m square (>5 plants), which were detected using single-pixel classification. It also included very small populations (<5 flowering plants, 1-2m square) that generated mixed pixels, which were detected using spectral unmixing. The high detection accuracy for flowering B. rapa was coupled with a rather large false positive rate (43%). The latter could be reduced by using the image detections to target fieldwork to confirm species identity, or by acquiring additional remote sensing data such as laser altimetry or multitemporal imagery.

Hybridization between Brassica napus and B. rapa on a national scale in the United Kingdom

Measures blocking hybridization would prevent or reduce biotic or environmental change caused by gene flow from genetically modified (GM) crops to wild relatives. The efficacy of any such measure depends on hybrid numbers within the legislative region over the life-span of the GM cultivar. We present a national assessment of hybridization between rapeseed (Brassica napus) and B. rapa from a combination of sources, including population surveys, remote sensing, pollen dispersal profiles, herbarium data, local Floras, and other floristic databases. Across the United Kingdom, we estimate that 32,000 hybrids form annually in waterside B. rapa populations, whereas the less abundant weedy populations contain 17,000 hybrids. These findings set targets for strategies to eliminate hybridization and represent the first step toward quantitative risk assessment on a national scale.

Can 4D-Var use dynamical information from targeted observations of a baroclinic structure?

Targeted observations are generally taken in regions of high baroclinicity, but often show little impact. One plausible explanation is that important dynamical information, such as upshear tilt, is not extracted from the targeted observations by the data assimilation scheme and used to correct initial condition error. This is investigated by generating pseudo targeted observations which contain a singular vector (SV) structure that is not present in the background field or routine observations, i.e. assuming that the background has an initial condition error with tilted growing structure. Experiments were performed for a single case-study with varying numbers of pseudo targeted observations. These were assimilated by the Met Office four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation scheme, which uses a 6 h window for observations and background-error covariances calculated using the National Meteorological Centre (NMC) method. The forecasts were run using the operational Met Office Unified Model on a 24 km grid. The results presented clearly demonstrate that a 6 h window 4D-Var system is capable of extracting baroclinic information from a limited set of observations and using it to correct initial condition error. To capture the SV structure well (projection of 0.72 in total energy), 50 sondes over an area of 1×106 km2 were required. When the SV was represented by only eight sondes along an example targeting flight track covering a smaller area, the projection onto the SV structure was lower; the resulting forecast perturbations showed an SV structure with increased tilt and reduced initial energy. The total energy contained in the perturbations decreased as the SV structure was less well described by the set of observations (i.e. as fewer pseudo observations were assimilated). The assimilated perturbation had lower energy than the SV unless the pseudo observations were assimilated with the dropsonde observation errors halved from operational values. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

Use of airborne remote sensing to detect riverside Brassica rapa to aid in risk assessment of transgenic crops

High resolution descriptions of plant distribution have utility for many ecological applications but are especially useful for predictive modeling of gene flow from transgenic crops. Difficulty lies in the extrapolation errors that occur when limited ground survey data are scaled up to the landscape or national level. This problem is epitomized by the wide confidence limits generated in a previous attempt to describe the national abundance of riverside Brassica rapa (a wild relative of cultivated rapeseed) across the United Kingdom. Here, we assess the value of airborne remote sensing to locate B. rapa over large areas and so reduce the need for extrapolation. We describe results from flights over the river Nene in England acquired using Airborne Thematic Mapper (ATM) and Compact Airborne Spectrographic Imager (CASI) imagery, together with ground truth data. It proved possible to detect 97% of flowering B. rapa on the basis of spectral profiles. This included all stands of plants that occupied >2m square (>5 plants), which were detected using single-pixel classification. It also included very small populations (<5 flowering plants, 1-2m square) that generated mixed pixels, which were detected using spectral unmixing. The high detection accuracy for flowering B. rapa was coupled with a rather large false positive rate (43%). The latter could be reduced by using the image detections to target fieldwork to confirm species identity, or by acquiring additional remote sensing data such as laser altimetry or multitemporal imagery.

The effect of wheat straw residue on the emergence and early growth of sugar beet (Beta vulgaris) and oilseed rape (Brassica napus)

The management of straw residue can be a concern in non-inversion tillage systems where straw tends to be incorporated at shallow depths or left on the soil surface. This can lead to poor crop establishment because straw residue can impede or hinder crop emergence and growth. Small container-based experiments were undertaken using varying amounts of wheat straw residue either incorporated or placed oil the soil surface. The effects on (lays to seedling emergence, percentage emergence, seedling dry-weight and soil temperature using sugar beet and oilseed rape were investigated because these crops often follow wheat in a cropping sequence. The position of the straw residue was found to be the primary factor in reducing crop emergence and growth. Increasing the amount of straw residue (from 3.3 t ha(-1) to 6.7 t ha(-1)) did not show any consistent trends in reducing crop emergence or growth. However, in some instances, results indicated that an interaction between the position and the amount of straw residue Occurred particularly when the straw and seed was placed on the soil surface. Straw placed on the soil surface significantly reduced mean day-time soil temperature by approximately 2.5 degrees C compared to no residue. When the seed and straw was placed on the soil Surface a lack of seed-to-soil contact caused a reduction in emergence by approximately 30% because of the restriction in available moisture that limited the ability for seed imbibition. This trend was reversed when the seed was placed in the soil, but with straw residue still on the soil surface, because the surface straw was likely to reduce moisture evaporation and improved seed-to-soil contact that led to rapid emergence. In general, when straw was mixed in or placed on the soil surface along with the seed, sugar beet and oilseed rape emergence and early growth biomass was significantly restricted by approximately 50% compared to no residue. The consequences of placing seed with or near to straw residue have been shown to cause a restriction in crop establishment. In both oilseed tape and sugar beet, this could lead to a reduction in final crop densities, poor, uneven growth and potentially lower yields that could lower financial margins. Therefore, if farmers are planning to use non-inversion tillage methods for crop establishment, the management and removal of straw residue from near or above the seed is considered important for successful crop establishment. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

3D-Var assimilation of insect-derived Doppler radar radial winds in convective cases using a high resolution model

The assimilation of Doppler radar radial winds for high resolution NWP may improve short term forecasts of convective weather. Using insects as the radar target, it is possible to provide wind observations during convective development. This study aims to explore the potential of these new observations, with three case studies. Radial winds from insects detected by 4 operational weather radars were assimilated using 3D-Var into a 1.5 km resolution version of the Met Office Unified Model, using a southern UK domain and no convective parameterization. The effect on the analysis wind was small, with changes in direction and speed up to 45° and 2 m s−1 respectively. The forecast precipitation was perturbed in space and time but not substantially modified. Radial wind observations from insects show the potential to provide small corrections to the location and timing of showers but not to completely relocate convergence lines. Overall, quantitative analysis indicated the observation impact in the three case studies was small and neutral. However, the small sample size and possible ground clutter contamination issues preclude unequivocal impact estimation. The study shows the potential positive impact of insect winds; future operational systems using dual polarization radars which are better able to discriminate between insects and clutter returns should provided a much greater impact on forecasts.