Survival Analysis Employed in Predicting Corporate Failure: A Forecasting Model Proposal

In face of the current economic and financial environment, predicting corporate bankruptcy is arguably a phenomenon of increasing interest to investors, creditors, borrowing firms, and governments alike. Within the strand of literature focused on bankruptcy forecasting we can find diverse types of research employing a wide variety of techniques, but only a few researchers have used survival analysis for the examination of this issue. We propose a model for the prediction of corporate bankruptcy based on survival analysis, a technique which stands on its own merits. In this research, the hazard rate is the probability of ‘‘bankruptcy’’ as of time t, conditional upon having survived until time t. Many hazard models are applied in a context where the running of time naturally affects the hazard rate. The model employed in this paper uses the time of survival or the hazard risk as dependent variable, considering the unsuccessful companies as censured observations.

Comparative Analysis between Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Models in Business Failure Prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

How logrolling can explain the failure of the government coalition in Brazil

This article presents an analysis of the behavior of federal representatives in the Brazilian House of Representatives between 1995 and 1998, when a series of constitutional amendments were presented by the president to be voted on by Congress. The objective is to show that the lack of a stable government coalition resulted in costs to society that were not anticipated by the government. The study argues that a logroll - a trade of votes - was the strategy used by the government in order to guarantee the number of votes necessary to approve the amendments. This strategy created a vicious system in which representatives would only vote with the government if they had benefits in return.

Peroral susceptibility of Aedes albifasciatus and Culex pipiens complex mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) from Argentina to western equine encephalitis virus

The transmission cycle of western equine encephalitis (WEE) virus in South America is unknown. A WEE virus strain was isolated from Aedes albifasciatus in Argentina during the WEE epizootic of 1982-83. Also, Culex pipiens from Argentina was reported to be able to transmit WEE virus experimentally, but other results indicate that Cx. pipiens from the USA is refractory to this virus. We determined the susceptibility of Argentina strains of Ae. albifasciatus and Culex pipiens complex mosquites to infection by WEE virus by the oral route. Adult females were fed on chicks infected with a WEE virus strain isolated in Cordoba Province, Argentina, or were fed on a blood/virus suspension. Each mosquito ingested between 10(1.6) to 10(6.4) vero cell plaque-forming units of virus. Each of 28 Ae. albifasciatus was positive for virus from the fourth day postfeeding, and there was evidence for virus replication. In contrast, 0/44 Cx. p. quinquefasciatus and only 1/15 Cx. p. pipiens was positive. Aedes albifasciatus is susceptible to infection by WEE virus and should be considered a potential vector of this virus in Argentina. Both subspecies of Cx. pipiens are refractory to peroral infection by WEE virus and probably do not play a role in the WEE virus cycle in Argentina.

Health related quality of life in patients with refractory chronic heart failure undergoing cardiac resynchronization: type of therapeutic response

The benefits of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) in the health-related quality of life (HRQL) are largely demonstrated in selected patients with severe congestive heart failure (CHF). However, the differences between responders and non-responders, with regard to the effect of CRT in the various dimensions that constitute HRQL are still a matter of discussion. Objective: To evaluate the impact of CRT on the HRQL of patients with CHF refractory to optimal pharmacological therapy, within 6 months after CRT. Methods: 43 patients, submitted to successful implantation of CRT, were evaluated in hospital just before intervention and in the outpatient clinic within 6 months after CRT. HRQL was analyzed based on the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ). Patients were classified as super-responders (ejection fraction of left ventricle - LVEF - ≥45% post-CRT), n=15, responders (sustained improvement in functional class and LVEF increased by 15%), n=19, and non-responders (no clinical or LVEF improvement), n=9. Results: In the group of super-responders, CRT was associated with an improvement in HRQL for the various fields and sums assessed (ρ<0.05); in responders, CRT has been associated with an improvement of HRQL in the various fields and sums, except in the self-efficacy dimension (ρ<0.05); in non-responders, CRT was not associated with improvement of HRQL. Conclusion: In a population with severe CHF undergoing CRT, the patients with clinical and echocardiographic positive response, obtained a favorable impact in all dimensions of HRQL, while the group without response to CRT showed no improvement. These data reinforces the importance of HRQL as a multidimensional tool for assessment of benefits in clinical practice.

Evaluating the quality of life in patients with refractory chronic heart failure undergoing cardiac resynchronization regarding the type of therapeutic response

The benefits of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) in the quality of life have been largely demonstrated in selected patients with severe congestive heart failure (CHF). However, the differences between responders and non-responders, with regard to the effect of CRT in the various dimensions of quality of life is still a matter of discussion. Objective: to evaluate the impact of CRT on the quality of life of patients with CHF refractory to optimal pharmacological therapy, within 6 months after CRT.

Relation of happiness, hope and affection with quality of life in patients with heart failure

Introduction: Meeting the actual role of positive psychology, begins to be recognized the relation of positive variables with health. Objective: To know the relation of happiness, hope and affection with quality of life in individuals with heart failure. Population and Methodology: 128 individuals with heart failure, 98 men and 30 women, 61.9±12,1 years of age, 6,6±3,9 years in school and 74,2% retired because of this disease. 56,3% were in Class III of New York Heart Association, with poor left ventricular ejection fraction (25,3±6,2%). The clinical history was of 9,4±8,5 years for this heart disease and had at least one hospitalization due to heart failure with 51,6% having ischemic heart disease.

Happiness, hope and affection as predictors of quality of life and functionality of individuals with heart failure at 3 month follow up

Introduction: Meeting the actual role of positive psychology, begins to be recognized the contribution of positive variables in health outcomes. Objective: To know the contribution of happiness, hope and affection individually and as a whole in the quality of life and functionality of individuals with heart failure. Population and Methodology: 128 individuals with heart failure, 98 men and 30 women, 61.9±12,1 years of age, 6,6±3,9 years of school and 74,2% retired because of this disease. 56,3% were in Class III of New York Heart Association, with poor left ventricular ejection fraction (25,3±6,2%). The clinical history was of 9,4±8,5 years for this heart disease and had at least one hospitalization due to heart failure with 51,6% having ischemic heart disease.

Análise de fiabilidade de sistemas e componentes de helicópteros

Este trabalho ocorre face à necessidade da empresa Helisuporte ter uma perspectiva a nível de fiabilidade das suas aeronaves. Para isso, foram traçados como objectivos de estudo a criação de uma base de dados de anomalias; identificação de sistemas e componentes problemáticos; caracterização dos mesmos, avaliar a condição de falha e, com isto, apresentar soluções de controlo de anomalias. Assim, foi desenvolvida uma metodologia que proporciona tratamento de dados com recurso a uma análise não-paramétrica, tendo sido escolhida a estatística de amostra. Esta irá permitir a identificação dos sistemas problemáticos e seus componentes anómalos. Efectuado o tratamento de dados, passamos para a caracterização fiabilística desses componentes, assumindo o tempo de operação e a vida útil específica de cada um. Esta foi possível recorrendo ao cálculo do nível de fiabilidade, MTBF, MTBUR e taxa de avarias. De modo a identificar as diferentes anomalias e caracterizar o “know-how” da equipa de manutenção, implementou-se a análise de condição de falha, mais propriamente a análise dos modos e efeitos de falha. Tendo isso em atenção, foi construído um encadeamento lógico simples, claro e eficaz, face a uma frota complexa. Implementada essa metodologia e analisados os resultados podemos afirmar que os objectivos foram alcançados, concluindo-se que os valores de fiabilidade que caracterizam alguns dos componentes das aeronaves pertencentes à frota em estudo não correspondem ao esperado e idealizado como referência de desempenho dos mesmos. Assim, foram sugeridas alterações no manual de manutenção de forma a melhorar estes índices. Com isto conseguiu-se desenvolver, o que se poderá chamar de, “fiabilidade na óptica do utilizador”.

Extraction of hemoglobin with calixarenes and biocatalysis in organic media of the complex with pseudoactivity of peroxidase

The present work involves the use of p-tert-butylcalix[4,6,8]arene carboxylic acid derivatives ((t)Butyl[4,6,8]CH2COOH) for selective extraction of hemoglobin. All three calixarenes extracted hemoglobin into the organic phase, exhibiting extraction parameters higher than 0.90. Evaluation of the solvent accessible positively charged amino acid side chains of hemoglobin (PDB entry 1XZ2) revealed that there are 8 arginine, 44 lysine and 30 histidine residues on the protein surface which may be involved in the interactions with the calixarene molecules. The hemoglobin-(t)Butyl[6]CH2COOH complex had pseudoperoxidase activity which catalysed the oxidation of syringaldazine in the presence of hydrogen peroxide in organic medium containing chloroform. The effect of pH, protein and substrate concentrations on biocatalysis was investigated using the hemoglobin-(t)Butyl[6]CH2COOH complex. This complex exhibited the highest specific activity of 9.92 x 10(-2) U mg protein(-1) at an initial pH of 7.5 in organic medium. Apparent kinetic parameters (V'(max), K'(m), k'(cat) and k'(cat)/K'(m)) for the pseudoperoxidase activity were determined in organic media for different pH values from a Michaelis-Menten plot. Furthermore, the stability of the protein-calixarene complex was investigated for different initial pH values and half-life (t(1/2)) values were obtained in the range of 1.96 and 2.64 days. Hemoglobin-calixarene complex present in organic medium was recovered in fresh aqueous solutions at alkaline pH, with a recovery of pseudoperoxidase activity of over 100%. These results strongly suggest that the use of calixarene derivatives is an alternative technique for protein extraction and solubilisation in organic media for biocatalysis.

A model to forecast financial failure, in non financial galician SMES

We are concerned with providing more empirical evidence on forecast failure, developing forecast models, and examining the impact of events such as audit reports. A joint consideration of classic financial ratios and relevant external indicators leads us to build a basic prediction model focused in non-financial Galician SMEs. Explanatory variables are relevant financial indicators from the viewpoint of the financial logic and financial failure theory. The paper explores three mathematical models: discriminant analysis, Logit, and linear multivariate regression. We conclude that, even though they both offer high explanatory and predictive abilities, Logit and MDA models should be used and interpreted jointly.

Dissecting the role of CLASP1 in the mammalian development

A mitose é o evento celular, através do qual uma células transmite uma cópias do seu DNA às células filhas. Este processo é mediado pelo fuso mitótico, o qual consiste numa rede bipolar microtubulos. A dinâmica dos microtubulos é regulada por proteínas associadas a estes (MAPs – Microtubule-Associated Proteins), tais como as proteínas associadas às extremidades positivas dos microtubulos (+TIPs – Plus-ends Tracking proteins). As proteínas associadas às CLIPs (CLASPs – CLIP-associated proteins) pertencem a esta família e estão altamente conservadas nos eucariotas. Estas interagem com os microtubulos regulando o fuso mitótico, a segregação dos cromossomas e o comportamento dos microtubulos ao nível do cinetocoro. Assim, as CLASPs têm sido descritas como essenciais à manutenção da integridade genética durante a divisão celular. Um modelo animal knockout para o gene Clasp1 é uma ferramenta indispensável à descoberta do papel da CLASP1 a nível fisiológico. Nos animais knockout foi observado um fenótipo letal, no qual 100% dos recém-nascidos morreram poucos minutos após o nascimento, no decurso de falência respiratória. Após análise histopatológica, observamos que os pulmões dos animais knockout apresentam um atraso no desenvolvimento. Porém, a análise da expressão de marcadores de diferenciação celular, mostrou que os pneumócitos tipo I e II estão presente e diferenciados nos animais knockout aquando do seu nascimento. No entanto, um defeito primário a nível pulmonar ainda não pode ser excluído. Níveis elevados de glicogénio no parênquima alveolar dos animais knockout sugerem imaturidade pulmonar ou deficiente produção do líquido surfactante. Adicionalmente, ainda não está esclarecido de que forma pode este atraso explicar a letalidade observada nos recémnascidos knockout. Verificamos também que expressão de CLASP1 é transiente ao longo do desenvolvimento, sendo particularmente elevada no cérebro, o que pode explicar o seu papel já descrito na biologia dos neurónios. A CLASP1 é ubiquamente expressa em mamíferos adultos, o que sugere que esta proteína é também importante em tecidos diferenciados. Nesta fase, o significado biológico da CLASP1 em mamíferos ainda não foi descortinado. No entanto, nenhum animal knockout para Clasp1 foi capaz de sobreviver ex uterus, o que sugere um papel fundamental desta proteína na fase final do desenvolvimento dos mamíferos.

Linfangiogénese no tecido adiposo em modelos de doença inflamatória crónica (asma e obesidade): uma abordagem por imunohistoquímica e lipidómica

O tecido adiposo é um órgão endócrino dinâmico, secretando factores importantes na regulação do metabolismo, fluxo vascular sanguíneo e linfático, e função imunológica, entre outros. Em caso de acumulação de tecido adiposo por ingestão de uma dieta gorda, ou por disfunção metabólica, os adipócitos podem desencadear uma reacção inflamatória por falha na drenagem linfática, acumulando-se mediadores inflamatórios, os quais potenciam a propagação da reacção. Assim, questiona-se uma potencial associação entre o aumento de tecido adiposo na obesidade, hipóxia adipocitária e estimulação da linfangiogénese. Além disso, a expressão de adipocinas varia de acordo com a distribuição do tecido adiposo (subcutâneo, TAS e visceral, TAV). Deste modo, pretende-se com este estudo contribuir para o aumento do conhecimento sobre os complexos mecanismos moleculares subjacentes à linfangiogénese. Ensaios com ratinhos da estirpe C57Bl/6J (modelo de obesidade) e BALB/c (modelo de asma e obesidade), divididos em grupos submetidos a dieta normal e dieta rica em gordura. Avaliação semi-quantitativa da expressão tecidular de LYVE-1 (marcador da linfangiogénese) por imunohistoquímica em material embebido em parafina, no TAS e TAV, e cromatografia líquida de ultra-performance acoplada de espectrometria de massa (UPLC-MS) para análise da expressão plasmática de ceramida e esfingosina-1-fosfato (S1P). No modelo de obesidade observou- -se diminuição do número de vasos linfáticos e expressão de LYVE-1 ao longo do tempo no TAV, e aumento de ambos os parâmetros e hipertrofia adipocitária no TAS. As concentrações de ceramida e S1P corroboram a existência de um processo inflamatório nos ratinhos em estudo, ainda que numa fase muito inicial. No modelo de asma e obesidade, após 17 semanas de tratamento, observou-se incremento da linfangiogénese no TAV, mas não no TAS. A resposta inflamatória avaliada através dos diferentes parâmetros permite afirmar que num estadio inicial de obesidade a proliferação linfática poderá estar a ser retardada pela hipertrofia adipocitária. A libertação de adipocinas será observada apenas numa fase posterior, desencadeando todo o processo inflamatório que incrementará a proliferação linfática. Adicionalmente, é possível sugerir que a maior pressão à qual o TAV se encontra sujeito não favorece a proliferação linfática, pelo menos num estadio incial.

Organization knowledge management change from a complex adaptive systems perpective with ability for ambidexeterity

We are working on the confluence of knowledge management, organizational memory and emergent knowledge with the lens of complex adaptive systems. In order to be fundamentally sustainable organizations search for an adaptive need for managing ambidexterity of day-to-day work and innovation. An organization is an entity of a systemic nature, composed of groups of people who interact to achieve common objectives, making it necessary to capture, store and share interactions knowledge with the organization, this knowledge can be generated in intra-organizational or inter-organizational level. The organizations have organizational memory of knowledge of supported on the Information technology and systems. Each organization, especially in times of uncertainty and radical changes, to meet the demands of the environment, needs timely and sized knowledge on the basis of tacit and explicit. This sizing is a learning process resulting from the interaction that emerges from the relationship between the tacit and explicit knowledge and which we are framing within an approach of Complex Adaptive Systems. The use of complex adaptive systems for building the emerging interdependent relationship, will produce emergent knowledge that will improve the organization unique developing.

O Planeamento estratégico nos hospitais portugueses num contexto de austeridade: o caso particular dos Hospitais E.P.E.

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças Orientador: Professor Doutor José Freitas Santos