Survival Analysis Employed in Predicting Corporate Failure: A Forecasting Model Proposal


Autoria(s): Pereira, José
Data(s)

20/01/2016

Resumo

In face of the current economic and financial environment, predicting corporate bankruptcy is arguably a phenomenon of increasing interest to investors, creditors, borrowing firms, and governments alike. Within the strand of literature focused on bankruptcy forecasting we can find diverse types of research employing a wide variety of techniques, but only a few researchers have used survival analysis for the examination of this issue. We propose a model for the prediction of corporate bankruptcy based on survival analysis, a technique which stands on its own merits. In this research, the hazard rate is the probability of ‘‘bankruptcy’’ as of time t, conditional upon having survived until time t. Many hazard models are applied in a context where the running of time naturally affects the hazard rate. The model employed in this paper uses the time of survival or the hazard risk as dependent variable, considering the unsuccessful companies as censured observations.

Formato

application/pdf

Identificador

1913-9004

http://hdl.handle.net/11110/918

Idioma(s)

eng

Direitos

info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess

Palavras-Chave #bankruptcy prediction #financial distress #survival analysis #financial ratios
Tipo

info:eu-repo/semantics/article